Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over


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Post Post #50 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 6:13 pm

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

Vote: Datadanne


I've decided that a policy lynch of Datadanne is the best way to approach day one. To try and answer any questions that will assuredly arise...

1) Why not use the information from day one to chose a lynch target? Isn't a slightly informed lynch superior to a completely uninformed one?
A) I don't believe so. Despite protestations from better players than I that they can beat the system and get a lynch record better than chance, I have seen no evidence of this in day one. In the six games I've played/am playing that are past day one and the nearly fifteen more that I've read for one reason or another, I have yet to see scum lynched on day one. Random chance should yield a correct lynch ratio of around 25%, vastly superior to the semi-informed ratio of 0% that I've found so far.

2) Why Datadanne?
A) Because I've read all three of his other games, in the two he's no longer active in he was lynched as doctor in both of them within the first two days. Do you see the posts he made in a row earlier? Those will likely be his best posts the entire game. So, besides the benefit of this lynch being "random" that is, not based on this game, and thus more likely to hit scum; if he is in fact a townie he won't actually help the town at all regarding analysis and thus there's no intellectual detriment to the town to lynching him.

3) So are you going to do if you've already decided you're not moving your vote?
A) I propose that we all begin poking and prodding and interrogating each other as we'd usually do. The point of this isn't to deprive the town of information, but to give that information the needed context it usually lacks on day one. We continue interrogating and poking and prodding until the game slows down or until a majority feels that we've squeezed all the useful information from the day. At which point an individual will cast a vote on Datadanne instead of whoever they would've likely voted instead.

4) You mentioned context in your third answer, what context will be provided?
A) Well, we'll have more information about the setup based off the reveal of Datadanne's death and any night kills that happen. Furthermore, since this is a theme game there likely will be a variety of roles with night actions that will resolve and that information should help corroborate or counter the information gleaned from day one.

I expect many questions, probably some flak, and an OMGUS from datadanne. But I'll try and explain anything else anyone sees fit to question.
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Post Post #51 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 6:35 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

OK. DDD, I don't like it. At all. However, I don't have the time to comment properly right now, so I'll just link you a couple of games (some are ongoing, but D1 is over and that's all this sample set requires) that I can think of just off the top of my head.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9123

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10705

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9048

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9002

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10400

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9947

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10260

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9678

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10310

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... start=1150 (this one doesn't technically count because the lynch D1 failed, but the scum was caught and strung up D1, he was just immune to the lynch type and we got him D2)

So yeah. Those are just games I've played in/been following. Get a better sample set before you make such foolish generalizations.
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Post Post #52 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 6:58 pm

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

Kairyuu wrote:OK. DDD, I don't like it. At all. However, I don't have the time to comment properly right now, so I'll just link you a couple of games (some are ongoing, but D1 is over and that's all this sample set requires) that I can think of just off the top of my head.

So yeah. Those are just games I've played in/been following. Get a better sample set before you make such foolish generalizations.
You've proven nothing because you fail to show how many games that's pulled from. A list of links looks dramatic, but frankly it fails the smell test. Because, I didn't say it never happens, I simply said it fails more often then random chance would.
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Post Post #53 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 7:17 pm

Post by Nocmen »

So wait...Kairyuu, what is this list of games supposed to represent? What events, issues, etc? All I see is a list of links.

As for DDD's vote, it seems to me that he is voting him for being just a bad player. Which seems like a pretty pointless lynch to me.
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Post Post #54 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 7:56 pm

Post by Datadanne »

Is there something you're trying to say in this post?
No, Not yet.

What about people going away for weekends?
The mod is a bastard....
I've decided that a policy lynch of Datadanne is the best way to approach day one. To try and answer any questions that will assuredly arise...
Well, Aren´t you a bastard....
and an OMGUS from datadanne
You are correct.
Vote:DDD

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Post Post #55 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 2:31 am

Post by SilverPhoenix »

The Second Votecount

ChiefSkye4 ~ 2 (
lixyl, Nocmen
)
Datadanne ~ 3
(WeyounsLastClone, Kairyuu, Debonair Danny DiPietro)

Debonair Danny DiPietro ~ 2
(VP Baltar, Datadanne)

Kairyuu ~ 0
lixyl ~ 1
(ortolan)

Nocmen ~ 0
ortolan ~ 0
Shinnen_no_Me ~ 1
(TCold)

TCold ~ 0
VP Baltar ~ 1
(Shinnen_no_Me)

WeyounsLastClone ~ 0
Not Voting ~
( ChiefSkye4)


With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Friendly Reminder: Please unvote when you change votes. Muchos gracias.

Last edited by SilverPhoenix on Mon Mar 23, 2009 3:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #56 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 2:32 am

Post by Nocmen »

Datadanne wrote:
Is there something you're trying to say in this post?
No, Not yet.

What about people going away for weekends?
The mod is a bastard....
I've decided that a policy lynch of Datadanne is the best way to approach day one. To try and answer any questions that will assuredly arise...
Well, Aren´t you a bastard....
and an OMGUS from datadanne
You are correct.
Vote:DDD

probably some flak
No, Im coming after you in a Hot Air Balloon!
*Fires AA-Guns at DDD from the HAB*
I can't tell if you're playing stupid, have a PR, or are trying to prove a point to DD From this post.
You do realize my weekend comment was not directed at anything the mod said or did, unless, are you trying to say something indirectly from the response to my quote?
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Post Post #57 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 3:01 am

Post by VP Baltar »

My first game (out of three) on the site had scum (my partner) lynched on Day 1 due to logic. Ergo, it is plausible and calling for a policy lynch on page 3 seems like you are needlessly trying to end discussion. Datadanne being pointlessly lynched as a powerrole in other games further supports why we should not policy lynch him for no real reason at this point. Doing so could seriously derail town's chances of winning if he is some sort of PR (no need to discuss this further btw) or even VT.

I move that we focus on finding other scum and leave the data situation until we have more substantial evidence.

Vote stands for suggesting a bad idea.
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Post Post #58 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:06 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

VP Baltar wrote:My first game (out of three) on the site had scum (my partner) lynched on Day 1 due to logic. Ergo, it is plausible and calling for a policy lynch on page 3 seems like you are needlessly trying to end discussion. Datadanne being pointlessly lynched as a powerrole in other games further supports why we should not policy lynch him for no real reason at this point. Doing so could seriously derail town's chances of winning if he is some sort of PR (no need to discuss this further btw) or even VT.
And again a sample size of three doesn't get close to proving anything. I never said it was impossible to find scum on day one, but that statistically doing so is no better and quite possibly worse than random chance.

Furthermore, I am not trying to end discussion as I noted in point four, don't misrepresent what I'm trying to do. We should try to squeeze as much information out of the day as possible, but wait for appropriate context for that information.

And Datadanne wasn't pointlessly lynched in the other games, he was lynched in them because his play is virulently anti-town period (see the game (N725) where he claimed doc, then proceeded to claim vanilla, hammered another townie, claimed cop, and then claimed either vanilla or doc again, I forget, before being lynched). Since he's going to provide us no useful information and his play seems to be anti-town regardless of whether he's scum or not it's easier to cut that line of discussion off at the legs.
I move that we focus on finding
other
scum and leave the data situation until we have more substantial evidence.
Slip of the toungue? Perhaps. But seems to indicate that datadanne is in fact scum if we're hunting for other scum and the only way that Baltar would know that is if he is scum as well.
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Post Post #59 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:37 am

Post by Datadanne »

I can't tell if you're playing stupid, have a PR, or are trying to prove a point to DD From this post.
You do realize my weekend comment was not directed at anything the mod said or did, unless, are you trying to say something indirectly from the response to my quote?
I was away for the weekend, And the mod didn´t announce it.
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Post Post #60 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:40 am

Post by Shinnen_no_Me »

I don't like DDD's attitude at all. He's like "I'm the most experienced player here thus my references are valid and the others are not". Arrogant and with a policy lynch, another two things I don't like. Just because Datadanne has been a bad player in other games doesn't mean he will be in this one. Get reasons in this game to vote for him. Though it's true that so far Datadanne is drawing attention to himself, DDD's reasons to vote for him (which are based in pure meta) just don't convince me.

Be clear that I'm not defending Dd, I'm just pointing out DDD's attitude and ingame baseless reasons to vote for him.

Unvote, Vote: DDD


Sorry, but I really don't like the way your approaching to this game. You are just supporting a lynch on Dd for the sake of a random lynch, just because of the meta. That is a really scum thing to do, you know? You are just encoring a bandwagon on a random player, and last time I checked, that was scum.
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Post Post #61 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 5:07 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

Shinnen_no_Me wrote:I don't like DDD's attitude at all. He's like "I'm the most experienced player here thus my references are valid and the others are not".
I have not said this, I believe Kairyuu and nocmen to have more experience than me. However, there has not been evidence presented to prove my hypothesis wrong. Baltar only has three games to draw from and Kairyuu did not provide a sample size rendering his list of games currently meaningless. It's not arrogance, it's good science.

If there's been a more objective study of this topic (possibly something from MD) and it runs counter to what I've said I'll gladly back off having been proven wrong.
Arogant and with a policy lynch, another two things I don't like. Just because Datadanne has been a bad player in other games doesn't mean he will be in this one.
I see nothing to suggest that datadanne's play will be any better than it was previously (see post 54).
Get reasons in this game to vote for him.
No, because then it wouldn't be a "random" lynch, it would be the same semi-informed decision that's not advantageous in finding scum.
DDD's reasons to vote for him (which are based in pure meta) just don't convince me.
That's unfortunate, but you never really touch on the lynchpin of my meta argument, that day one lynches are no better and possibly worse than random chance. Why are you unconvinced by my argument, other than the fact that it is an atypical argument and other people seem to object?
Sorry, but I really don't like the way your approaching to this game. You are just supporting a lynch on Dd for the sake of a random lynch, just because of the meta. That is a really scum thing to do, you know?
No it's not. In fact if the meta is correct then I'm doing the town thing to do and everyone who insists on stumbling blindly into a lynch is inadvertently helping scum. Hence to label me scum you need to prove that the meta is incorrect and that it makes sense that I would actually post and support the false meta as scum.
You are just encoring a bandwagon on a random player, and last time I checked, that was scum.
I'm not encouraging a bandwagon on datadanne, I'm encouraging he be lynched without a bandwagon because a datadanne bandwagon will provide no information and that we spend the rest of the day on more productive topics of discussion.
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Post Post #62 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:20 am

Post by WeyounsLastClone »

@ Datadanne: for as far I see DDD has set his mind to lynch you to do, and all you do after is some one sentence comments that don't help us any further. Can you please prove DDD wrong, and help us to a more fruitful day 1?

I'm against a policy lynch of Datadanne. The dynamics in voting without restricting to just 1 person will give us much more information later on. DDD, you somehow argue that lynching Datadanne would give us about 25% chance to lynch scum, but that's just flawed logic. There are the same possibilities here as in other games, the mafia undeniably has a hand in who gets lynched day 1 (for example say you were mafia and this is a set up), so the chances here, as in any other games, is not 0%, but also not equal to the '# scum'/ 'total # players'.
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Post Post #63 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:48 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

WeyounsLastClone wrote:I'm against a policy lynch of Datadanne. The dynamics in voting without restricting to just 1 person will give us much more information later on.
Alright, then how about adding on to my proposal in point four (which it seems like no one has actually bothered to read). At the point that any individual decides the day has run long enough and that we've collected enough useful information that in addition to voting Datadanne they
Pseudo-Vote:
whoever they would've anyways. People would use this throughout D1 as they would a normal vote while still granting the advantages of my proposal without losing any information.
DDD, you somehow argue that lynching Datadanne would give us about 25% chance to lynch scum, but that's just flawed logic. There are the same possibilities here as in other games, the mafia undeniably has a hand in who gets lynched day 1 (for example say you were mafia and this is a set up), so the chances here, as in any other games, is not 0%, but also not equal to the '# scum'/ 'total # players'.
Since my lynch target is "random" the probability of it hitting scum is '# scum'/ 'total # players' %. My experience and theory suggests that the usual methods of scumhunting on day one will yield a correct lynch <= '# scum'/ 'total # players' %.

This is because the informed minority clearly has an advantage over the uninformed majority on day one because they posses vastly more information; as the days pass the uninformed majority gains information and the knowledge gap shrinks increasing the ability and tendency for the town to correctly lynch scum.

My proposal increases the odds of getting a correct lynch on day one while not comprimising the knowledge gathering that's essential to making the correct lynches in later days.
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Post Post #64 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:55 am

Post by ChiefSkye4 »

Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
Get reasons in this game to vote for him.
No, because then it wouldn't be a "random" lynch, it would be the same semi-informed decision that's not advantageous in finding scum.
I feel like this whole argument on a mathmatical level, makes sense. But when it comes to good sense, it's ridiculous. It's like saying "Ok, I'm gonna shoot this gun blindly into pure darkness, rather than to have any level of light at all." This is a Mafia game. The whole point is to be investigative. The point would be moot if we made blind shots for every lynch.
DDD wrote:
Sorry, but I really don't like the way your approaching to this game. You are just supporting a lynch on Dd for the sake of a random lynch, just because of the meta. That is a really scum thing to do, you know?
No it's not. In fact if the meta is correct then I'm doing the town thing to do and everyone who insists on stumbling blindly into a lynch is inadvertently helping scum.
You don't think random voting is stumbling blindly? I've heard your math, but common sense?
Really
?
DDD wrote:I'm not encouraging a bandwagon on datadanne, I'm encouraging he be lynched without a bandwagon because a datadanne bandwagon will provide no information and that we spend the rest of the day on more productive topics of discussion.
Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."
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Post Post #65 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:56 am

Post by WeyounsLastClone »

That theory is mighty fine, if not for the possibility that you were scum. I'm still wondering of one thing. Suppose we lynch Datadanne and he turns out to be town, you know you will get the heat and be first to look at day 2. And that's not something you want as scum. But also not as a townie. So that's a bit difficult to grasp at the moment. Two explanations at the moment are that you're a townie who just thinks it's a good idea or possibly DD and DDD are both scum and with DDD running DD's lynch might clear DDD in the long run. But that second theory is a bit farfetched for now.
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Post Post #66 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:01 am

Post by WeyounsLastClone »

Hate to do what I said that I disliked (double posting_, but my post was in response to DDD's post 63.

Now I'm on the topic of double posting. Sometimes it's necessary to clarify, or if something jumps to mind after you posted. That said, just double posting while with a bit more thought you could have put it in one post, puts me of a bit.
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Post Post #67 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:24 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

ChiefSkye4 wrote:I feel like this whole argument on a mathmatical level, makes sense. But when it comes to good sense, it's ridiculous. It's like saying "Ok, I'm gonna shoot this gun blindly into pure darkness, rather than to have any level of light at all." This is a Mafia game. The whole point is to be investigative. The point would be moot if we made blind shots for every lynch.
That's because it does make sense and the reason you're uncomfortable isn't because it's a bad strategy, but because it's different. Don't overthink this and start wondering what you should do or what's conventional, we should do whatever is best for the town and if this makes the most mathematical sense it would be foolish of us not to pursue it.
You don't think random voting is stumbling blindly? I've heard your math, but common sense?
Really
?
Not in the form I've proposed, because I've set it up to allow for us to still collect information that we'll need on the later days. We increase the odds of making a correct lynch without suffering the disadvantage of lost information.
Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."
You know how silly this sounds? I've spent the last five posts or so advocating a datadanne lynch, I still advocate lynching datadanne. To suggest that I'm distancing from the guy I've constructed my entire argument around lynching is borderline hysterical.
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Post Post #68 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:39 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

WeyounsLastClone wrote:That theory is mighty fine, if not for the possibility that you were scum.
The theory is fine, unless I'm scum and if I'm scum I'm either handing over a scum buddy for a lynch (in which case you'd be a fool not to enjoy the advantage I've handed over) or I've come up with elaborate meta argument that sounds convincing and I'm using it to lynch the worst player in the town which will put all the suspicion on me the next day (which sounds ridiculously convoluted and not like a very good strategy).
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Post Post #69 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 9:30 am

Post by Nocmen »

Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
VP Baltar wrote:My first game (out of three) on the site had scum (my partner) lynched on Day 1 due to logic. Ergo, it is plausible and calling for a policy lynch on page 3 seems like you are needlessly trying to end discussion. Datadanne being pointlessly lynched as a powerrole in other games further supports why we should not policy lynch him for no real reason at this point. Doing so could seriously derail town's chances of winning if he is some sort of PR (no need to discuss this further btw) or even VT.
And again a sample size of three doesn't get close to proving anything. I never said it was impossible to find scum on day one, but that statistically doing so is no better and quite possibly worse than random chance.

Furthermore, I am not trying to end discussion as I noted in point four, don't misrepresent what I'm trying to do. We should try to squeeze as much information out of the day as possible, but wait for appropriate context for that information.

And Datadanne wasn't pointlessly lynched in the other games, he was lynched in them because his play is virulently anti-town period (see the game (N725) where he claimed doc, then proceeded to claim vanilla, hammered another townie, claimed cop, and then claimed either vanilla or doc again, I forget, before being lynched). Since he's going to provide us no useful information and his play seems to be anti-town regardless of whether he's scum or not it's easier to cut that line of discussion off at the legs.
I move that we focus on finding
other
scum and leave the data situation until we have more substantial evidence.
Slip of the toungue? Perhaps. But seems to indicate that datadanne is in fact scum if we're hunting for other scum and the only way that Baltar would know that is if he is scum as well.
This makes little sense to me. You mention past examples from his other games, and yet you seem to ignore all other past game references that are made by other players. So because of that, I'm going to go the same way and ignore your use of past games as a reason to vote for Datadanne. So basically, using the same logic you are, you're going and pushing a policy lynch on Datadanne for reasons which could be applied to any other players. So why not go and "policy lynch" you? What about Chief? Myself? The others?

You say that Datadanne's actions may be the same as they were before. So can I use the same logic for saying that they may be different? That playstyles may be different depending on faction? That this is a theme game, closed, so we don't know what tricks are in the roles?

You also say this:
I'm not encouraging a bandwagon on datadanne, I'm encouraging he be lynched without a bandwagon because a datadanne bandwagon will provide no information and that we spend the rest of the day on more productive topics of discussion.
You do realize that bandwagons can be very valuable sources of information? Right now you're acting as if you are ready to shut down all uses of a possible bandwagon in the future, saying it will have no information.

I'm under the assumption that in Mafia heaps of information can be gained from who votes who, why, when, etc. Mostly stuff you get from investigating bandwagons. To me, this is more important source of information than any policy lynch.
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Post Post #70 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 9:57 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

Nocmen wrote:This makes little sense to me. You mention past examples from his other games, and yet you seem to ignore all other past game references that are made by other players.
Well, as I mentioned I can't use Kaiyuu's data since there's no sample size those are pulled from and what's relevant here is percentages. I can add Baltar's experience to mine, but that still only gives a ratio of 1/24 or about 4% which is still significantly less than random chance. It's not that I'm ignoring their experiences, it's that they either can't be used currently or they don't change the conclusion.
So because of that, I'm going to go the same way and ignore your use of past games as a reason to vote for Datadanne.
This is a terrible point, if I had committed a fallacy that doesn't make it open season for you to do the same.
So basically, using the same logic you are, you're going and pushing a policy lynch on Datadanne for reasons which could be applied to any other players. So why not go and "policy lynch" you? What about Chief? Myself? The others?
On the most basic level if the lynch is truly random (irrelevant of postings in this particular game) then the odds of hitting scum are the same and so anyone could be substituted in. However, despite raising the percentage of hitting scum there remains a significant chance of hitting a townie. Hence why Datadanne was chosen, in the case that the random lynch does fail the town has lost it's least useful asset.
You say that Datadanne's actions may be the same as they were before. So can I use the same logic for saying that they may be different? That playstyles may be different depending on faction?
The point wasn't to speculate on his role alignment. If I let that influence my vote then it isn't random and that ruins the theory. The point was to note that datadanne is the least useful asset the town has, he has demonstrated no capacity to hunt scum (at all, let alone) succesfully and has a tendency to get himself lynched for his anti-town behavior. Losing datadanne will not hurt the town in ways that losing a more competent player would.
That this is a theme game, closed, so we don't know what tricks are in the roles?
Correct, hence why I feel speculating about Datadanne's role in pointless, he may hold a useful role or he may hold a role that will actually hurt the town. I'm not going to try and outguess the mod in a game the mod admits has bastard roles in it.
You do realize that bandwagons can be very valuable sources of information? Right now you're acting as if you are ready to shut down all uses of a possible bandwagon in the future, saying it will have no information.
Yes, in general they can be quite useful. A Datadanne bandagon on the other hand will contain basically no useful information because his play is so poor that everyone has easy cover on the bandwagon because of that.
I'm under the assumption that in Mafia heaps of information can be gained from who votes who, why, when, etc. Mostly stuff you get from investigating bandwagons. To me, this is more important source of information than any policy lynch.
AND I'M NOT TRYING TO PREVENT THAT, I have stated time and time again that even if we accept my idea that we should continue day one in as normal a fashion as possible, that we should set-up a fake voting system so that we can study vote movement and potential bandwagons, so that we get the benefits of the random lynch theory while not losing the benefits of the investigations day one would yield.
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Post Post #71 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 10:46 am

Post by ChiefSkye4 »

Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."
You know how silly this sounds? I've spent the last five posts or so advocating a datadanne lynch, I still advocate lynching datadanne. To suggest that I'm distancing from the guy I've constructed my entire argument around lynching is borderline hysterical.
Admittedly, the choice of the word "distracting" was incorrect of me. I meant to insinuate something to the effect of what WLC did in post 65:
WLC wrote:possibly DD and DDD are both scum and with DDD running DD's lynch might clear DDD in the long run. But that second theory is a bit farfetched for now.
I apologize for my mistake in word choice. Anyway...
DDD wrote:
Nocmen wrote: So basically, using the same logic you are, you're going and pushing a policy lynch on Datadanne for reasons which could be applied to any other players. So why not go and "policy lynch" you? What about Chief? Myself? The others?
On the most basic level if the lynch is truly random (irrelevant of postings in this particular game) then the odds of hitting scum are the same and so anyone could be substituted in. However, despite raising the percentage of hitting scum there remains a significant chance of hitting a townie. Hence why Datadanne was chosen, in the case that the random lynch does fail the town has lost it's least useful asset.
Out of curiosity, doesn't this sort of take the "random" out of the situation? In other words, "it's random on the basis of his bad playing"?
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Post Post #72 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:01 am

Post by Kairyuu »

SO DDD, essentially you are saying "Let's not play mafia. Instead, let's turn the game into the random bullshit that many critics call the game, because that way we don't have to worry about competing with the scum, only the odds." Sorry, but that is just stupid, and there is no way I will ever go along with that.

Point 1:
No lynch is truly random. You decided, based on your own subjective reasoning, that Datadanne is the best D1 lynch. That
automatically
moves us straight to the semi-informed lynching that you are trying to avoid (note: keeping the town from getting information by playing the odds instead of the game is anti-town).

Point 2:
We do not know your motives, and therefore do not know if we can trust you or not. That right there will also push us away from the randomness you want to use. The only real way to get something random is if the mod or some unbiased observer rolls a die and we lynch the player whose number comes up. Besides the fact that that is foolish to the extreme and goes against the point of the game, SP wouldn't allow something like that methinks.

Point 3:
You are willing to push for a lynch that you claim yourself has only a 25% chance of hitting scum, and which will leave us just as much in the dark as we are now based on wagons, debate, and reactions/voting patterns. This essentially puts us into D2 with one or more people dead, but no new information to help power roles make choices N1 or for us to work with D2 without said power roles claiming with results, which would be stupid.

Please explain to me exactly how this lynch you are proposing will benefit the town more than it will the scum. If you can convince me, I'll move my vote off of you.
unvote
and
vote:DDD


In regards to my sample set, I could go through all of the games I have ever played in and/or read and/or been told about and give you exact numbers, but I won't, because that would take me several hours and would clutter the thread with 100+ games, including quite a few that don't even apply (really old games where the meta was totally different or games like Bad Idea Mafia that have totally different play mechanics). As I said before, those are just some of the more recent games and those that popped into my head specifically.

I can say similar things about your sample set as well though. You have given an unsupported number and expected us to believe that, not only are you telling the truth, that those are all of the games you have read and you are not skewing your own sample to suit your desired result.

How about this, do what you did with VP. Add my sample to yours and his. That brings you up to 11/34, which is 32.35%, and invalidates your own argument. I doubt you will do that though, since VP's sample was so small that it would have no real effect on your numbers, and mine is large enough to make a difference.
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Post Post #73 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:04 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Nocmen post 69 is money.

DDD at this point I have yet to hear a single person agree with your half cocked theory, so I'm starting to wonder at what point you will let this go so we can move on. I have never played with Data so I have no clue what his style is. The game you describe with him as doc does sound awful, but who's to say he didn't learn from that. If he does play that awful then his lynch is inevitable.
DDD wrote:On the most basic level if the lynch is truly random (irrelevant of postings in this particular game) then the odds of hitting scum are the same and so anyone could be substituted in. However, despite raising the percentage of hitting scum there remains a significant chance of hitting a townie. Hence why Datadanne was chosen, in the case that the random lynch does fail the town has lost it's least useful asset.
You're trying to proffer this data lynch as truly random, and that is utterly false. You are basing it off of his meta and the limited posts he made in this game (he was gone on LA this weekend remember?)

Because you are doing this, you are not even really following your own mathmatics...just using bad logic to get a quick lynch in. Might I also say that at this point we have no clue what the night kill situation is going to look like. What if there is more than one night kill (no need to speculate further than this) and they all hit town...we'd be out three town with almost no information.

Furthermore, you somehow feel that your experience of six games on MS is somehow representative of the site in general. This is highly doubtful and noone has any reason to believe it is. While I appreciate you have a unique theory and are trying a different approach, without a substansive bit of research (ie cross-section of hundreds of different games) there is no way to tell if your hypothesis is statistically accurate.

The plan you are presenting about us lynching data while still having some sort of side discussion, again, does not make much sense to me. So, you are saying that we continue to look for someone scummy, narrow it down...and then let them live? How does this make sense? If someone acts scummy, you lynch them. If data ends up being the scummiest player at the end of Day 1, then by all means lets get out the rope, but we can't possibly know that until we get to that point. Plus, I think the scum would be much less likely to make errors if they knew 100% for sure that they weren't going to be killed today.
DDD wrote:A Datadanne bandagon on the other hand will contain basically no useful information because his play is so poor that everyone has easy cover on the bandwagon because of that.
Well that is..just...wrong. Info can be garnered from who is on the wagon, how passionately they push it, when they vote, and for what reasons. Are you not providing an even easier cover than might normally happen by pushing a policy lynch ?

Data, now that you are back, I suggest that you make some serious posts apart from OMGUSing DDD without much explanation. What do you think of ChiefSkye? WeyounsLastClone? Myself? Please take this game seriously if you are actually town and care about winning.

In other news (sorry for the long post, but may as well let it all out now):

ChiefSkye, why no vote?

Need to hear more from lixyl and TCold.
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Post Post #74 (ISO) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:19 am

Post by ChiefSkye4 »

VP Baltar wrote: ChiefSkye, why no vote?
I want to see DDD's response to the evidence, and I'll vote (or not) depending on his response.

But in the meantime, though,
FoS DDD
.

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