Newbie 764 - Game Over

[Korts]

It's not the fact that Kairyuu's vote was arbitrary that bugs me. It's the fact that he explicitly stated that it's random, pre-emptively defending against any fake cases that might be built on it and giving him another reason to hop off the wagon in case it builds up. If Kairyuu is scum, Chaos is more likely as well--random voting a scumpartner is not unheard of by far, and with the attempt at denying any real responsibility for the vote I smell distancing. (Note that this percieved connection is only valid if one of the two turn scum, with it being more valid if Kairyuu is the one that turns scum.)

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Official Vote Count

Josh Lyman - 1 (Ojanen)
Chaos40 - 1 (Kairyuu)

Kairyuu - 2 (Korts, Infinis)

Ojanen - 1 (Josh Lyman)
Korts - 1 (Japles)
Japles - 1 (Chaos40)

Not Voting - 2 (Bekkatha, Sando)

5 to Lynch

[Sando]

Japles 'random' vote for Korts, without any reasoning, silly or not, after the only discussion so far has been about justification for vote, seems either very poorly thought out or just trying to fit in with everyone else.

I'm going to

Vote: Japles

for the above reason, it's been a day since 2 people called him on his 'random' voting.

[Kairyuu]

@Korts:

It's not the fact that Kairyuu's vote was arbitrary that bugs me. It's the fact that he explicitly stated that it's random, pre-emptively defending against any fake cases that might be built on it and giving him another reason to hop off the wagon in case it builds up.

I wonder, does the fact that it has become a serious vote since I made it change your opinion of it? As it stands, I didn't like Chaos' response. He backtracked a good deal when I questioned him, and I find that suspicious. So yeah, the vote is serious.

If Kairyuu is scum, Chaos is more likely as well--random voting a scumpartner is not unheard of by far, and with the attempt at denying any real responsibility for the vote I smell distancing.

It's a valid strategy, but quite a foolish one to use in a Newbie game. When an IC votes a Newbie partner, said partner is going to feel rather more pressured than if anyone else voted them; therefore making them much more likely to slip up and get lynched.

I would consider it poor form.

(Note that this percieved connection is only valid if one of the two turn scum, with it being more valid if Kairyuu is the one that turns scum.)

This is true of all distancing tells.

@all: If you haven't already, please comment on this minor flare-up between myself and Korts.

[Infinis]

Unvote

Game on. I think the random number gen thing is a null tell. Yes it is an easy excuse to cover a semi-serious vote, but it can be taken at face value just as easily

[Korts]

I wonder, does the fact that it has become a serious vote since I made it change your opinion of it? As it stands, I didn't like Chaos' response. He backtracked a good deal when I questioned him, and I find that suspicious. So yeah, the vote is serious.

My opinion? This shift in seriousness makes things interesting, but not as much as your comment as above quoted. The shift might seem harmless, and justified, on the one hand. On the other hand, this shift hadn't been made clear in any way before your comment in quoted, therefore any validity or credibility it might have is immediately questionable.

Also, you say he backtracked, when all he did was vote on random numbers and have theory explained to him, in return to which he unvoted--a natural response when you're proven that your vote is essentially useless. Do you think that lack of knowledge or opinion in the business of random voting is a scumtell in any way? You aren't looking at this in the context of alignment, you are just trying to force a wiki-tell onto a situation.

[Korts]

It's a valid strategy, but quite a foolish one to use in a Newbie game. When an IC votes a Newbie partner, said partner is going to feel rather more pressured than if anyone else voted them; therefore making them much more likely to slip up and get lynched.

I would consider it poor form.

This is a fair point, and from the single previous game of ours this is what I'd expect of you. How many games have you IC'd?

This is true of all distancing tells.

Naturally; I'm just adding comments that seem like common knowledge to you for the sake of the newer players.

By the way, as a note: it should also be said that when noticing a connection, you should always note the direction that is implied in. For instance, something makes you think A and B are connected; it's not irrelevant whether A committed a tell that implies the connection or B; in the former case, A is scummier than B, but if B was the one who slipped, he is the more suspicious. It is a common mistake, one that I still frequently unconsciously make, to consider A and B equally suspicious, but this is a wrong assumption and can lead to false conclusions.

(sorry for the double posting, I haven't slept much and forgot to complete my post)

[Ojanen]

Why did you unvote Kairyuu, Infinis? Your comment attached to the unvote doesn't explain it, it seems to say more that you disagree with the stance Kairyuu took to Chaos40's first vote.

I think I can now understand Korts's objection to Kairyuu's word "random" from post 25, though I still find the difference in nuance to be extremely small. (the weight of the feeling he originally expressed was "I hatehatehate when somebody states that their "random" vote is random", which I guess puzzled me a bit, but maybe accents are needed to get reactions?)

I agree that Japles needs to speak up.
Also want to hear Bekkatha voice some opinion (and Josh Lyman, but I remember she said she was V/LA).

[Sando]

It's not the fact that Kairyuu's vote was arbitrary that bugs me. It's the fact that he explicitly stated that it's random, pre-emptively defending against any fake cases that might be built on it and giving him another reason to hop off the wagon in case it builds up.

I'm slightly confused, and this 50/50 questioning whether this actually bugs you or if you're just spoiling for a fight, and me being a newbie and not getting where you're coming from.

If his vote is arbitrary, whether or not that is a bad thing, wouldn't you want to preface it with that fact? Assuming he were town, and a BW did start on the target of his arbitrary vote, if he then decided to simply remove his arbitrary vote, wouldn't it seem like a huge scum tell by someone merely removing an arbitrary vote? By saying it was arbitrary, no real meaning will be read into him removing it.

However i do realise that a lot of people feel that announcing a random vote as random makes it lose it's power to pressure. But to my mind, that seems like a fairly flimsy argument given that anyone with half a brain can work out that a vote on the first page with no/silly reason is random/arbitraty/sillyness.

And yeah, still waiting to hear from Japles regarding his vote, and Bekkatha regarding...anything.

[Chaos40]

In my mind, placing a vote with an abitrary reason attached doesn't mean that the vote is not-random. Actually, all it's saying that you are going to place a vote on a specific person for a reason which has next to no impact on the current game which is efectively bias.

With that said, I believe that a random vote is better than an arbitrary one. I would rather a vote be placed on someone for a logical and rational suspicion, but as that's impossible in the earliest stages of a game, the random vote to me seems the lesser of two evils. Hence, my vote on Japles. I have a logical suspicion against him and so I dispense with random voting and abitrary voting both.

[Infinis]

Why did you unvote Kairyuu, Infinis? Your comment attached to the unvote doesn't explain it, it seems to say more that you disagree with the stance Kairyuu took to Chaos40's first vote.

I think I can now understand Korts's objection to Kairyuu's word "random" from post 25, though I still find the difference in nuance to be extremely small. (the weight of the feeling he originally expressed was "I hatehatehate when somebody states that their "random" vote is random", which I guess puzzled me a bit, but maybe accents are needed to get reactions?)
...

I random voted and now since we're into the serious phase of talking, I Unvoted. I was stating my opinion of the validity of a tell of using a random number to vote other than some purely silly reason.

[Bekkatha]

I feel someone placing a vote at the beginning of the game and saying it is random is not scummy or suspicious because it seems most of the discussion that stems from a random vote is from someone's reaction.

[Kairyuu]

Post coming later if I have time after my homework is finished. If I don't then it'll have to wait until tomorrow.

[Kairyuu]

@Korts:

My opinion? This shift in seriousness makes things interesting, but not as much as your comment as above quoted.

That was kinda the point.

The shift might seem harmless, and justified, on the one hand. On the other hand, this shift hadn't been made clear in any way before your comment in quoted, therefore any validity or credibility it might have is immediately questionable.

That is arguably true. However, I'm not overly bothered by by credibility being questionable. I may actually have a plan right now. You never know.

Also, you say he backtracked, when all he did was vote on random numbers and have theory explained to him, in return to which he unvoted--a natural response when you're proven that your vote is essentially useless.

He initially just said he was waiting on discussion to get going, but did not pull the vote. It was not until I pressed him further that he unvoted. He did not unvote when the theory was explained. He unvoted when I kept questioning him. Quite possibly an attempt to placate me, which shows he is hesitant to enter a debate. This, in turn, implies that he does not want to be put in the spotlight, which is a scummy mentality.

Do you think that lack of knowledge or opinion in the business of random voting is a scumtell in any way?

Not really, but that's not why I'm voting him.

You aren't looking at this in the context of alignment, you are just trying to force a wiki-tell onto a situation.

Wiki tells are awful. I read them once and realized how easily scum can manipulate them. Tarhalindur's Standard Tells are much better, because they are less easily manipulated. However, the best tells are motive based, and don't involve set-in-stone actions. I tend to use those, as they are more reliable.

This is a fair point, and from the single previous game of ours this is what I'd expect of you. How many games have you IC'd?

This is only my second game as an IC. The first was Newbie 750, where I pulled a rather controversial gambit, and ended up catching both scum with it. I won't use it here though after some of the reactions of the new players.

Naturally; I'm just adding comments that seem like common knowledge to you for the sake of the newer players.

Meh. My comment was more to show I agree with you than anything else.

By the way, as a note: it should also be said that when noticing a connection, you should always note the direction that is implied in. For instance, something makes you think A and B are connected; it's not irrelevant whether A committed a tell that implies the connection or B; in the former case, A is scummier than B, but if B was the one who slipped, he is the more suspicious. It is a common mistake, one that I still frequently unconsciously make, to consider A and B equally suspicious, but this is a wrong assumption and can lead to false conclusions.

QFT

@all: Time for my first list of suspicious characters:

Bekkatha:

No read yet.

Chaos40:

See above. Top suspect right now.

Infinis:

Too much random. Don't have a read yet.

Japles:

No posts. No read.

Josh Lyman:

V/LA the entire time, so no read.

Kairyuu:

I'm a Night Kill Immune Miller Vig! I swear! Honestly though, I'm working on something interesting.

Korts:

Right up into the debate I wanted to start. It's going well. However, for the purposes of my plan, I cannot reveal what I think of him yet.

Ojanen:

Interesting, but not scummy. I like the questions. It shows you're trying to scumhunt.

Sando:

Essentially the same as Ojanen. Putting actual effort into the game.

Everyone who has their name marked with a 'no read' needs to start posting more content as soon as possible. Also, everyone should please take a stance on the debate between myself and Korts. It's for something I'm working on.

Alright. I forgot to post this before now, but this is the list of general scumhunting guidelines that I came up with in my last game as an IC:

Kai's Lesson 1 of being a good scumhunter:

The town does not need to know everything about everything at any given time. If they did, then this would only tell the scum exactly what to do. Yes, it is pro-town to share your reasoning, but it is also pro-town to catch scum, and the two things do not always coincide. Use your best judgment as to whether information you have would be best revealed or kept to yourself.

Kai's Lesson 2 of being a good scumhunter:

If you think someone is scum, then push them. Do not let up. Ever. If you worry about your image then you won't be able to effectively attack. And if you're wrong, then shrug it off. Don't ever lose confidence, because it is when you do that that the scum can start sowing the seeds of doubt in your mind. Never give up on your convictions.

Kai's Lesson 3 to being a good scumhunter:

WIFOM is not bad. In fact, its bad reputation has lent itself to be a very easy way for scum to get a bandwagon going on a townie without much objection from the town. When it gets right down to it, everything in Mafia is WIFOM to some degree, and the only way that we keep the game from being totally random chance is by analyzing that WIFOM to determine which scenarios are truly more likely than others. Things that in the current meta are discarded as WIFOM are merely more ambiguous versions of the tells we use every day. A good townie needs to be willing to actually look at the supposed "WIFOM" and "do the math" so to speak. You simply take the situation and look at it. Analyze risks and benefits if a townie was doing it, then flip it over and analyze it as if it were a scum's action. One of those will have a higher reward for a lower risk. That turns an automatic scumtell that ends up being discarded as useless into a nice it of information that could figure strongly into a case on either side.

Kai's Lesson 4 to being a good scumhunter:

Lurking is terrible play, regardless of alignment. It prevents anyone getting any sort of good read on you, and promotes inactivity in the game. Scum lurking to avoid slipping up, power roles lurking to avoid the notice of the scum, vanillas lurking because they are bored and don't like their roles; it's all the same. No one has any reason to lurk. It doesn't help your faction, and isn't playing to win. Don't do it!

[Japles]

just trying to fit in with everyone else.

This... I was just on for a few seconds to read... and when I play a game, I roll a die to determine my first vote.

I will now

unvote

...

[Japles]

And for me not saying anything... my laptop's inverter went bad on Saturday... and I needed to get a monitor to hook it up to... so, I will be here now. Sorry for the absence.

[Sando]

just trying to fit in with everyone else.

This... I was just on for a few seconds to read... and when I play a game, I roll a die to determine my first vote.

I will now

unvote

...

@Japles
Ahh, i was implying that is was a bad (read: scummy) thing that you're just trying to fit in with everyone else. I think that a scum would do everything in their power to be seen as just one in the crowd.

So 'just trying to fit in' would seem pretty scummy to me.

Your vote struck me as an attempt to just look like everyone else, get your name on the board with a minimum of fuss and comment, seems fairly scummy to me.

If you're content with your explanation of 'i wanted to fit in', that's fine, but if that's the case, I'm certainly keeping my vote on you as the scummiest person around in my view.

Re: Kairyuu's accusation of Chaos

I can see Kairyuu's point regarding Chaos40, when pressed to promote discussion, merely unvoted, which would seem to kill discussion rather than promote it. I can see why you feel he's scummy, but considering the above, I'd rather keep my vote on Japles for the moment.

Re: Kairyuu vs Korts

I think it's fairly obvious that if you wanted me to declare for a 'side', then I'd be on Kairyuu's side. I don't think that Korts seems scummy, but he seems more scummy than Kairyuu if that counts for anything. I still think it's a pretty big stretch to get so offended, or at least seem to, over what amounts to semantics with words.

I wont get into my thoughts regarding your plans for this conversation, I'm pretty happy with you not being scum at the moment, although I obviously do have some theories, I'll respect your wishes to leave your plan alone for the time being.

@kairyuu, I actually read your last IC game, and the game you referenced it from, the gambit was pretty interesting. I did love how you caught out the D1 Goon. When i saw you were IC in this game, I was tossing around in my head trying to work out how to respond to it if you did it here.

[Chaos40]

Re: Kairyuu's accusation of Chaos
I can see Kairyuu's point regarding Chaos40, when pressed to promote discussion, merely unvoted, which would seem to kill discussion rather than promote it.

Personally, it seems to me that quite a lot of discussion has begun in response to my unvote, hardly killing the discussion. Granted, I've become a main target in the eyes of one of our ICs, a dangerous position to be in, but it seems an acceptable trade to get discussion going in earnest.

I voted Ojanen based on random numbers. It was explained to me why voting on random numbers was essentially a bad idea and so, taking the advice at face value (which may have been a mistake) I retracted the vote.

@kairyuu, I actually read your last IC game, and the game you referenced it from, the gambit was pretty interesting. I did love how you caught out the D1 Goon. When i saw you were IC in this game, I was tossing around in my head trying to work out how to respond to it if you did it here.

Do you mean that last sentence as, you were wondering how to go along with it as town, or how to avoid getting stuck in it as scum?

[Sando]

Do you mean that last sentence as, you were wondering how to go along with it as town, or how to avoid getting stuck in it as scum?

I'd be seriously considering that he was using the last game as an example of how good it is for a townie to do while secretly being scum and trying it from the other side.

He was also sort of testing it in that game as far as i recall, so i figure he might want to test doing it as scum at some point.

He also said it was something to be used in moderation, so if he did it 2 in 2 newbie games, I'd have to think he was trying something different the second time, which would mean he was doing it as either a scum or as the doctor.

For those that don't know, he claimed doc (he wasn't) on D1 for no other reason than drawing out scum. Was pretty interesting, and more interesting was the game he referenced.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=1

This is the game if you're interested, it'll also give you an idea of how one of our ICs thinks.

All of this is rather academic though, he didn't do it.

[Sando]

Re: Kairyuu's accusation of Chaos
I can see Kairyuu's point regarding Chaos40, when pressed to promote discussion, merely unvoted, which would seem to kill discussion rather than promote it.

I voted Ojanen based on random numbers. It was explained to me why voting on random numbers was essentially a bad idea and so, taking the advice at face value (which may have been a mistake) I retracted the vote.

The problem with your unvote was that you got called on your vote:

@Chaos: Why use random numbers to determine your vote? Using a RNG (assuming you did) takes the responsibility for the vote off of yourself, and therefore renders it useless in advancing the game.

Defended it:

Well, seeing as it's so early in the game. I really have nothing else to base my vote on. Once the game progresses and discussion develops I will have more solid arguments and evidence to use as a basis.

Got a slight nudge from Kairyuu:

Any reason you can't try to get the discussion going yourself? Why is it that you need to wait for other people to start the discussion.

And decide to unvote while getting pretty defensive:

I admit that I did little to initate discussion, but as the posts above mine were little more than abitrary votes themselves, I didn't have much to build upon, and whilst I was unsure as to how to begin discussion, it certainly seems to have begun as a reaction to my random vote. But as I don't have any reason (even an abitrary one) to let my vote linger on someone who has yet to post, I'll Unvote

You were pushed to promote discussion, and it seems you know that early voting can produce this, yet you then unvote. If you were going to unvote, i would have expected it after Kairyuu's first comment, the unvote after the second question smacks of just trying to get him to stop hassling you.

[Japles]

@Japles
Ahh, i was implying that is was a bad (read: scummy) thing that you're just trying to fit in with everyone else. I think that a scum would do everything in their power to be seen as just one in the crowd.

So 'just trying to fit in' would seem pretty scummy to me.

Your vote struck me as an attempt to just look like everyone else, get your name on the board with a minimum of fuss and comment, seems fairly scummy to me.

If you're content with your explanation of 'i wanted to fit in', that's fine, but if that's the case, I'm certainly keeping my vote on you as the scummiest person around in my view.

That is how I play my first vote... yes, I said I was 'trying to fit in'... but then again, that is how I play my games. I RVS with a dice roll my first day then unvote from there once the real stuff starts happening.

So yes and no on the just trying to fit in...

[Ojanen]

Yes but that tells us that you hadn't payed any attention to the discussion before, Japles, looks like you still haven't. If you "always do that" then you would have been better off stating why you disagree with Kairyuu right away.
I'm kind of getting pseudo-participation vibes from you, which I don't like. On the other hand, by not stating even the silly reason you actually did the opposite to fitting in when you look at the conversation, so maybe slightly more inattentive than scummy - anyway not pro-town so far.
So would you mind taking a stance in the Kairyuu vs. Korts thing? You're just replying to messages to you so far. Gonna have to

FoS Japles

at this point.

[Ojanen]

Also, I'm not unvoting yet. It seems to me that the RVS is all the more silly if everyone pulls their votes at first sight of serious discussion. I looked at a couple of games and now I see it's not uncommon day 1 culture. Wouldn't the votes mean a bit more and be a little more likely to trigger some reactions if they didn't evaporate so easily? I know we have now some material already but I what's the benefit of unvoting if you don't want to change you're vote yet? That's kind of why I questioned you earlier, Infinis, seemed to me like you were eager to unvote which could have some implications.

Also, I do see the Chaos40 case now that you guys have pointed out that the unvoting wasn't the initial reaction.

Thank you for the Tarhalindur tell recommendation, Kairyuu. The link wasn't quite right so for any other searching souls it's here: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... dard_Tells

[Japles]

Yes but that tells us that you hadn't payed any attention to the discussion before, Japles, looks like you still haven't. If you "always do that" then you would have been better off stating why you disagree with Kairyuu right away.
I'm kind of getting pseudo-participation vibes from you, which I don't like. On the other hand, by not stating even the silly reason you actually did the opposite to fitting in when you look at the conversation, so maybe slightly more inattentive than scummy - anyway not pro-town so far.

I get what you are saying here. I only had a few moments... which I rolled, skimmed and voted before I had to head out the door. Maybe I should have waited until I got home from work and exhausted to read the thread and then post, but I didn't... then my laptop went haywire. So I don't know how that makes me anti-town already... but hey, I understand.

So would you mind taking a stance in the Kairyuu vs. Korts thing? You're just replying to messages to you so far. Gonna have to

FoS Japles

at this point.

You got it!

With me, random voting sometimes gets good discussion going, especially on Mafiascum where we are normally total strangers. I also play off-site on a place with 10-12 rotating players, so we have gathered tells and all that from playing so much together. Hell, a few of them have stopped doing the RVS altogether.

So it is really based on who you are and how you play. I see advantages and disadvantages to the RVS.

[Chaos40]

Chaos, it is important that any vote that is designed to make discussion out of nothing be arbitrary and not random. Make up something. Have a reason, any reason. Just make sure it isn't random, because random votes have nothing that can spark discussion.

In response to people asking why I unvoted after Kairyuu's second question as opposed to his first is actually because of this post.

As I've said before, I took Korts' advice at face value (again, possibly a bad move) and, upon being informed that my random vote was actually doing the very opposite of what I intended, purely because it was random as opposed to arbitrary I unvoted then. And, as I believed Kairyuu's questioning to be merely expanding upon the points Korts had raised I saw little reason to refrain from unvoting.

Had I known the fallout that would result I probably still would have unvoted. I made a random vote, had it pointed out to me why such a tactic was a bad idea by both of our ICs and then unvoted. If only Kairyuu had expressed disapproval over the random vote, the vote would probably have stayed, especially since I have read a few games to make me believe that RVing was an acceptable strategy (and Kairyuu's opinion whilst valid is just one man's opinion.) But having both ICs question my judgement in making such a move gave me cause to reconsider. Hence the Unvote at that time as opposed to earlier.