Mafia 98 - Apennine Mafia (Game Over)

[Yaw]

Vote Count:

VP Baltar (1): camn
Kairyuu (1): Debonair Danny DiPietro
Battle Mage (1): Mastin
broomhead (1): alexhans
SensFan (1): jammer
jammer (1): Kairyuu

Not Voting: Battle Mage, SensFan, GIEFF, Cephrir, VP Baltar, broomhead, SpyreX, Zachrulez, Benmage

8 to lynch

As a little note, I don't mind short forms when identifying the person you're voting for. As long as you uniquely identify the player, I'll count it. I'm mentioning this because there are

two

players in this game right now that could reasonably be abbreviated to "BM", therefore, if you choose to vote for "BM", you can't expect me to know which you are talking about. You have been warned.

[jammer]

while you already made clear scum can easily wifom the meta.

And where'd I say that, Jammer?

Here.

However, the tinfoil says that Mastin as scum could go the brazen I wouldn't do this as scum because it would be awesome.

True, for wifom purposes, I might, but truth is, I probably would've killed Alex or an EM player. Maybe Kai instead.

Better than the RVS. We essentially skipped it with the metagaming scumhunting. Relying on scum hunting is what we'll eventually do. But for now, Meta rules.
And anyone who gets rid of metagaming as an argument with our current kill is going to instantly be labeled more likely to be scum from me.

I am not trying to get completely rid of meta. I see meta as how you know other people play, and you compare that towards current play. Trying to gues who would kill who with maybe just 1 out of 4 deciding, including a possible wifom to get players on the wrong track. Seems very less usefull to me, if it even is.
Besides that, why is the kill of hascow so special? Only becouse some didn't play with her and wouldn't kill becouse of that? That is all? Are you really going to ignore some players becouse they would not shoot someone where they never played with?

With that, there only has to be one that played with hascow, to know him and kill him.

Still doesn't eliminate the fact that one of the people who knows him had to have killed him.

With 4 scum, you're trying to find out what one of them would kill. Include a wifom-kill argument, and we got little if anything to find mafia on. It sounds pretty random to me.

[GIEFF]

Myself: I know hascow from one ongoing game, but would put Sens, BM, and Mastin much higher on the "to kill" list than I would put him.

Kairyuu, what pro-town reason is there for listing the players you think that scum should kill?


jammer, how many scum do you think there are in this game? Why?

[Mastin]

Here.

That was referring to me. Not other players.
So, unless that was a direct accusation I was scum, then you're incorrect.

I am not trying to get completely rid of meta. I see meta as how you know other people play, and you compare that towards current play. Trying to gues who would kill who with maybe just 1 out of 4 deciding, including a possible wifom to get players on the wrong track. Seems very less usefull to me, if it even is.

Thing is, I doubt Wifom is involved in N0 kills. To me, N0 kill are a chance to get rid of a player with a good reputation. Like Kai, or Alex, for example.

Besides that, why is the kill of hascow so special?

Because, why would hascow be killed? There has to be a reason. And that reason means that the person who killed hascow probably knew him.

More common scum kills would be people like Sensfan, Kai, myself, maybe Alex, etc.

Not hascow.

Only becouse some didn't play with her and wouldn't kill becouse of that?

Him. Him.
And, yes. They wouldn't kill hascow because of that.
Think EM, Jammer. When was the last time you saw someone kill someone else they've never seen playing?
Probably rather some time ago.
When was the last time you saw someone kill someone else based off of that someone's play in a previous game?
I'd call you a liar if you answered anything other than the last time you played.

Are you really going to ignore some players becouse they would not shoot someone where they never played with?

Stop twisting my words.
Ignore, never.
Find less suspicious?
Probably.

Kairyuu, what pro-town reason is there for listing the players you think that scum should kill?

Why only singling out Kai? I did it as well.
And, to answer, it kinda clears me, if you believe what I say. (You should. I don't lie, even as scum, 'cept when I roleclaim as scum.)

[jammer]

Scum amount according to alexhans. He said 4 and I took it as a believable truth. I think 4 would fit well with 16 players.

[GIEFF]

Vote: jammer

Oops.

[Mastin]

This is a fair assumption, but not to be stated as fact.

Reasonings are welcomed with open arms.

[GIEFF]

Jammer stated there are 4 scum as a fact, not as a guess, and without any reasoning presented. I don't know why a townie would just take a wild guess another player made as "believable truth."


jammer, why did you so readily assume 4 scum?


Mastin, why do you think it is a fair assumption? Do you find it odd that jammer was so quick to adopt alexhans' hypothesis?

[Mastin]

Mastin, why do you think it is a fair assumption?

'Cause Alex's math was solid.

Do you find it odd that jammer was so quick to adopt alexhans' hypothesis?

Yes. That's why I said that it shouldn't be stated as fact.

[GIEFF]

If jammer is town, he took alexhans' observation that 4/16 = 25% as "believable truth" and accepted the 4-scum theory as fact.

If jammer is scum, he KNOWS how many scum there are, and forgot to pretend not to.



I think the second explanation is far likelier, and hence, my vote. Unless jammer has another townie-based reason to so readily assume 4 scum.


And Mastin, do you mean that jammer shouldn't assume 4 scum because it may be wrong, or that he shouldn't assume 4 scum because it is scummy?

[jammer]

Here.

That was referring to me. Not other players.
So, unless that was a direct accusation I was scum, then you're incorrect.

You are the only one that can use wifom...

Thing is, I doubt Wifom is involved in N0 kills. To me, N0 kill are a chance to get rid of a player with a good reputation. Like Kai, or Alex, for example.

But you would do it yourself?

And, yes. They wouldn't kill hascow because of that.
Think EM, Jammer. When was the last time you saw someone kill someone else they've never seen playing?
Probably rather some time ago.

I redirect you towards my recent games on EM. I have proven your theory multiple times wrong there. I believe this makes me look bad, right?

When was the last time you saw someone kill someone else based off of that someone's play in a previous game?
I'd call you a liar if you answered anything other than the last time you played.

I was scum last game there, you can try calling me a liar now.(I did kill someone that I know, btw, but if you see where I could pick between back then.)

Stop twisting my words.
Ignore, never.
Find less suspicious?
Probably.

It was a question, stop twisting that I am twisting your words. I wanted to have a feeling how far you are 'clearing' someone for a kill.

@GIEFF, I think 4 scum 16 players is fitting with no PR's. I looked at the little reasoning of alexhans what didn't look like a wild gues. I took it as truth becouse I though it was. I believe 4 scum sounds reasenable.
With this, this may sound stupid. But I though Alex reasoning was based on standard MS logic, balance of a basic setup like this. MS doesn't have a standard way to balance setups like this?

The topic where you could in, stated that it was the last mountainous game. Means it was played before. Where are the links from earlier games, btw. Do those also have 16 players, does the scum/town ratio change there?

GIEFF you vote only becouse I "blindly" assumed there are 4 scum?

Could you say what sounds like a reasenable amount, if that is incorrect.

[Mastin]

And Mastin, do you mean that jammer shouldn't assume 4 scum because it may be wrong, or that he shouldn't assume 4 scum because it is scummy?

Aren't they kinda one and the same?

You are the only one that can use wifom...

Me? Use wifom? Ha.

The guy who never lies regardless of alignment 'cept about his alignment, pulling wifom. That'd be the day...

But you would do it yourself?

Yes. Not killing pro-town players N0 is stupid.

I redirect you towards my recent games on EM. I have proven your theory multiple times wrong there. I believe this makes me look bad, right?

Thing is, every time I've played on EM, I've seen people kill players they know.
Not players who they've never seen before.

It was a question, stop twisting that I am twisting your words. I wanted to have a feeling how far you are 'clearing' someone for a kill.

Asking a question which uses wording that wasn't me I'd still consider twisting words.
Does making it a question automatically mean there's no word-twisting, Jammer?

@GIEFF, I think 4 scum 16 players is fitting with no PR's. I looked at the little reasoning of alexhans what didn't look like a wild gues. I took it as truth becouse I though it was. I believe 4 scum sounds reasenable.
With this, this may sound stupid. But I though Alex reasoning was based on standard MS logic, balance of a basic setup like this. MS doesn't have a standard way to balance setups like this?

The topic where you could in, stated that it was the last mountainous game. Means it was played before. Where are the links from earlier games, btw. Do those also have 16 players, does the scum/town ratio change there?

Speculation can be made about an increased number of scum, like five or six in rare cases, but it's doubtful.

[GIEFF]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 33#1527733

Mathematically, even 2 scum are favored to beat 14 townies. I think 3 is a reasonable amount.


But the reasonableness of the assumption is just a secondary point. Where you messed up, jammer, is in revealing that you KNOW how many scum there are - you are not guessing. Scum know how many scum there are, and town don't. This is simple.

[GIEFF]

And Mastin, do you mean that jammer shouldn't assume 4 scum because it may be wrong, or that he shouldn't assume 4 scum because it is scummy?

Aren't they kinda one and the same?

I will answer your question once you answer mine.

[jammer]

Does making it a question automatically mean there's no word-twisting, Jammer?

Yes, you wanted to hunt for scum with help of meta. And my question was meant, to know how much weight you put on it.

If I ask, "Are you female?", it doesn't mean I say you said you where female. So I don't twist your words.


GIEFF, did you just say in the same sentance. 3 is a reasonable amount and that I messed up with telling a non-reasonable amount as the numbers of mafia?
Doesn't that seem strange to yourself, I followed Alex in 4 scum. You say 3 is reasonable and tell I messed up with 4 scum?

[GIEFF]

I said it is reasonable. I did not proceed as if it was fact, as you did. I know you understand the difference.

[Mastin]

I will answer your question once you answer mine.

You kinda already do. By asking "Aren't they kinda one and the same?", I'm essentially saying, "both".

Yes, you wanted to hunt for scum with help of meta. And my question was meant, to know how much weight you put on it.

And it sounded like twisting my words to me.

If I ask, "Are you female?", it doesn't mean I say you said you where female. So I don't twist your words.

If you say, "I'd do XX as scum."
And I answer, "So you're admitting your scum?"

Is there no twisting of words?
After all, it's just a question, right?
Yea, no.

[jammer]

@GIEFF
You state 2 is mathematically favored to beat town in this setup, 3 could be reasonable. You vote me for following Alex in 4 scum as a scum-slip, me "knowing" how many mafia there are.

4 is a big difference to 2, I doubt the amount of mafia would be doubled from what is needed. Or that link you showed is complete bogus, and 2 isn't optimal for that amount of townys.

Are you planning to tunnel me on a believable truth of 4 scum. While you show a link where 2 scum is most likely.

@Mastin
I didn't think I was twisting your words. If I read back, I get you could see that.

[quote=mastin]Stop twisting my words.]ii[/quote]

[jammer]

lol@ bb code knowledge, I was referring to ''stop twisting words'' of you.

As you where twisting my words by saying I did it before, imo. I did not!

[Cephrir]

I now understand the quotes in Mastin's sig. >.<.

I came into this expecting 3 or 4 scum, and at this point could still see either. IMO we should just assume there are 4 because it's a possibility, even if it's less likely especially given the existence of the vanilla 2 vs. 10 setup.

I suppose NKs are more telling in a world without doc protections and players more likely to be investigated, but obviously the scum are aware of this and I don't see that anyone in particular would definitely be gunning for hascow. To me he does seem like one of the more intimidating names on the player list, but I count a couple I would choose over him. Possible difference of opinion between me and the scum could make him one of the more likely targets for any given scumgroup.

I've heard of everyone on the playerlistbefore except jammer, but don't know much about GIEFF and Benmage. Just FTR, since this seems popular.

I don't think jammer slipped up, especially given that there probably aren't 4 scum.

[Zachrulez]

Alexhansin post 12 you stated that we have 4 mislynches on the premise that there are 3 scum.

15 mislynch 14
Kill to 13

13 to 12
kill to 11

11 to 10
kill to 9

9 to 8
Kill to 7 and game over right?

So if there's 4 scum, isn't it actually 3 mislynches max? Since a 4th would be a scum win?

That seems unbalanced to me. Especially given that town has no power roles.

I believe if you have 3 scum in the game, that we do in fact get 4 mislynches, and 5 if there are 2 scum.

I actually think 3 scum is a better guess for what we have in this game, possibly even 2. (Though 3 looks more balanced, as with 2 the town could theoretically win way faster than scum could.)

Anyway, I'm not really liking the speculation on the NK that's coming from Mastin. Him and Camm are sticking out to me as potential scum right now.

As is Gieff, due to his attacks on Jammer over stating 4 scum as fact being some kind of "scum slip." I don't subscribe heavily into that as a strong scumtell. In fact given that 3 scum tends to make a lot more sense in this kind of a setup, I think it's more likely that Gieff is scum attacking Jammer's "slip."

So

Vote: Gieff

[SensFan]

Anyone who actually continues this "Sens must be scum since he should have been killed over Cow" logic, don't expect me to even read your posts.

jammer, if you read the site/my sig at the time, you would have known I was forced out of that game. So I'm going with a

Vote" jammer

[VP Baltar]

VP? what is your opinion of Hascow as a player?

Other than an ongoing with him, I don't know that much about him. I would place him as mediocre based on that, but I'd have to meta to form a more solid opinion.

With 4 scum, you're trying to find out what one of them would kill. Include a wifom-kill argument, and we got little if anything to find mafia on. It sounds pretty random to me.

And what would you propose we do on D1? This game is going to be filled with a lot of WIFOM to find scum, as there is no role confirmation.

Because, why would hascow be killed? There has to be a reason. And that reason means that the person who killed hascow probably knew him.

I tend to agree with this. There is the WIFOM of randomizing it, but if the scum were to do that, they might have killed someone who was even less known, such as jammer.

The kill would be most likely to come from someone who knows hascow. Furthermore, I believe that a senior player on the scum team would have more sway and would help direct the kill toward someone like hascow, as opposed to someone a newer person might be more inclined to kill based on overall site rep alone.


ah, damn...gotta go for now. Catching up with the rest later.

[SensFan]

Seriously, guys.

SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT THE KILL.

Its something the Scum have 100% control over, and I'm betting most/all of the Scum are now trying to use that to also control the Day phase.

[Zachrulez]

Seriously, guys.

SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT THE KILL.

Its something the Scum have 100% control over, and I'm betting most/all of the Scum are now trying to use that to also control the Day phase.

QFT