Newbie #840 (Game Over!)

[CooLDoG]

Ok...After a reread of the original post by cool, and I think that I made a bit of a mistake....Here's the post again:

lynching a lurker is the best idea, they do nothing, and they don't really contribute to the game.

Don't mess with the family, Vote: Snowbunny

I know that sounded sooo cheesy

I took the quote without the "Don't mess with the family", counting that as a slip of the tongue to mean that he was setting Snowbunny up for a vote as she hadn't said a great deal. Looking at it again, I see that yeah, it's setting up the OMGUS. I wish he'd be a bit more clear about the intent of his posts...My apologies, but I find him to be nearly incoherent.


*shakes head* Sposh, I'm sure that she is, but why is this scummy in the first place and deserving of a vote? I'm not sure exactly why this is considered a scumtell in your opinion....

He has it now

Also if you can get at my meaning, this first day with of last count 6 null votes (look up null...) then it is hard to kill off someone, since you need 5 other people to vote for the same person. If you can't understand that if 6 peeps null voted and the town/scum can still kill off someone, you have some type of problem.

We can't lynch someone

[SpyreX]

I'm still not sure what you're going on about Cool:

1.) You're saying the "mess with the family" is a setup for the reflective-vote?

2.) You're saying that no one can be lynched because people haven't voted?

[CooLDoG]

ohhh no.

does not voting mean that the voted not to lynch or that they have yet to vote?
I need help understanding what "not voting" means, since it can have two meanings.

If only I could edit that post...

[Netopalis]

Not voting means not voting or having unvoted.

Voting no lynch is a vote in and of itself.

[CooLDoG]

I'm still not sure what you're going on about Cool:

1.) You're saying the "mess with the family" is a setup for the reflective-vote?

2.) You're saying that no one can be lynched because people haven't voted?

wow you posted right after I posted, and before my second post, thx for the clear up.

Yes it is a "reflective-vote" just after watching "The Godfather, part 1 and 2" you kinda get that stuff in your head. But really this got way out of hand,

UN-Vote

Vote: null, no lynch

Just to clear this messy stuff up.

[SpyreX]

Wait...

Why would you vote no lynch at this point?

[Netopalis]

*sigh* Just unvote. Don't vote no lynch unless you

actually want the town to waive their lynch for today.

Spoiler alert: You don't want to go no lynch!

[CooLDoG]

Well? You all seem to think everyone should, plus why should I random vote people on false speculations on the first day when we have no idea what has even happened yet. And so I hope No one will think I am scum just because of a joke, and a reflect.

[SpyreX]

I'm missing something, still.

Cool, who thinks that we should nolynch today. Please quote and/or cite where you got that from.

[CooLDoG]

Well I could change it later, plus the odds are agents us getting a scum, look at it, if 2 are scum that means 7 people an't scum, one might be a doc, and one might be a cop, so it would be best just to null vote.

[Netopalis]

I never said I wanted no lynch, I said that there is no good reason to put two votes on someone randomly without any real reason. Big difference. Major difference. We need to lynch somebody today....


I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Cooldog

, as he seems a bit too reactionary for my tastes. He seems rather nervous and is acting as I would expect a newbie scum to do after a small amount of suspicion was placed on them. Note that I am not wanting a bandwagon on him....yet.

[CooLDoG]

Simple math, but then again their is happly ever after... would you be so kind to explain what is wrong with null voting?

[Snow_Bunny]

Voting for no-lynching is like the beginning of a series of mistakes that can only harm town.

So, you say that we shouldn't lynch no one today (I still don't get your reasons, but if I understood correctly, because "false speculation" and "we have no idea what has even happened yet"), but if we don't, tomorrow we'll be in the same position than today, only that we will have, without taking into account possible lucky night actions, one less townie. What makes you think that tomorrow we will have more info than today if we do nothing today?

I will assume that you are totally new to this game. And for that, I give you this advice: unless extreme events call for it, no-lynching is usually bad for town.

[SpyreX]

Here's the big issue with nolynching* Cool:

You are right there are 7 town versus 2 scum. Therefore,

numerically

, we ARE looking at higher base-odds of lynching town than scum.

So, from the side of "not wanting to lynch town" it makes sense on surface... however, the odds will NEVER be in our favor to hit scum over town (because at that point they would have won already ).

But, that isn't the goal. The goal is to lynch scum. No lynching has a 0% chance of hitting a scum. Further, you turn the game from a proactive play to a reactive play - which is something the scum love.

Yes, we may run up a doc, or a cop and they become exposed. Or, we run up a scum and are well on our way to a win. Can't win without a little gambling.

* There is one major exception to this - when the game is where a mislynch would lose and there are no PR's / "confirmed" players alive (6 players alive, 2 scum left, no one cleared is a loss with a mislynch) - in that situation nolynching and forcing the scum to tighten the odds is a decent play.

[CooLDoG]

Fine, but then who should I vote for, unless we bandwagon we can not get any one lynched at all, right? So we would be in the same position after all. Thus my vote is almost useless, and I can almost predict that we will end up in the same position that you described. And how could one no vote be any better then voting for one random person, whom would have no chance of getting his neck pulled?

[SpyreX]

Well thats the important part of all this. You want to vote for who YOU think could be scum and then explain why and go from there.

As I did when I said Sposh's play in regards to you makes little sense from a town viewpoint.

[Snow_Bunny]

The thing is, you're missing the whole point of the game. We aren't going to "random lynch" anyone. We are going to lynch the player who acts the scummiest. We have 3 weeks for that, and you'll see that as time moves discussion will be generated, and from that is that we're going to make our decisions.

However, it is true that you are acting like a nervous newbie who got a mafia role. I won't vote for you, yet, but

IGMEOY

.

[CooLDoG]

Well, as of now it looks like the only person the people should lynch is me, but it would be almost harisy me to vote for myself right, plus I have no idea who should be a scum. Also if I roleclamed right now it would be of no use to me since you would just shout, "SCUM!!!". In the end since people are now yelling at me to go to bed I might vote change in the morning. Depending on what happens. I will say again I don't know of any one yet that would be worth my vote so thus I null vote until I see someone who should be killed. This will be my new policy all game long, since I will change it latter to a person that might be a scum it won't matter what it looks like at first. But Dad must have drilled too much math in me over the past few weeks/years... I always look at a strict % of almost everything *sigh*.

any way no one yet can I say has earned my vote, but if you guys want to bandwagon someone then I will help you out. That's all I am saying, for tonight, btw nice new avvy Netopalis.

[Sposh]

Actually, I'm having a hard time stomaching it, overall.

Between the, apparent, slip up (the use of family) and the reaction to the FoS I am bothered.

I'm doubly bothered by Sposh's vote in regards to the OMGUS voting - because it reads as CD is town being pushed up via scum, which is a fairly hard line stance at this juncture.

Although concerned with CD, I find post 44 more voteworthy.

Vote: Sposh

I don't think it's a hard stance to take at all! I mean, scum have to try to move the game forward somehow... and I just didn't see it being an OMGUS. Seemed like a stretch. So either Snow Bunny is a mafia trying to set up a townie death or SB's just an overeager townie!

Also, I'd like a clarification on the whole family thing! Seems like an easy mistake to make, but how far SHOULD we be reading into it?

[Netopalis]

Don't jump to such conclusions, Cooldog, two players haven't even posted yet. And no, we are not asking for a roleclaim. You don't need to have a concrete vote against someone yet...but surely you have *some* suspicion about somebody? I have reasons to suspect *every* player in this game other than myself, but so far yours is the only one that I feel particularly strongly about. We're not going to lynch you on page 3, though.

That being said, I do worry that this might be making it too easy on a non-cooldog mafia to jump in on heavy suspicions this early....Just a side note. If we were to lynch him, I fear that on day two we would have very little to go on should he turn up innocent.

Also, flattery will get you nowhere, cooldog.

[SpyreX]

Well, as of now it looks like the only person the people should lynch is me, but it would be almost harisy me to vote for myself right, plus I have no idea who should be a scum. Also if I roleclamed right now it would be of no use to me since you would just shout, "SCUM!!!". In the end since people are now yelling at me to go to bed I might vote change in the morning. Depending on what happens. I will say again I don't know of any one yet that would be worth my vote so thus I null vote until I see someone who should be killed. This will be my new policy all game long, since I will change it latter to a person that might be a scum it won't matter what it looks like at first. But Dad must have drilled too much math in me over the past few weeks/years... I always look at a strict % of almost everything *sigh*.

any way no one yet can I say has earned my vote, but if you guys want to bandwagon someone then I will help you out. That's all I am saying, for tonight, btw nice new avvy Netopalis.

If you know you're town then the answer is never voting for yourself (the flipside being if you were scum you would want to appear town so see above).

There isn't even a wagon on you, so roleclaiming isn't necessary.

If you don't see someone who should be lynched, then keeping your vote off entirely is a better proposition than nolynching - however, look for scum! If there is something that strikes you as off vote, explain the vote, and see what happens. That is how we get information in this game during the day.

%'s can help, but remember the end all and be all is lynching scum - nolynching guarantees that a scum wont be lynched.

So, how about this: What do you think about my vote for Sposh?

I don't think it's a hard stance to take at all! I mean, scum have to try to move the game forward somehow... and I just didn't see it being an OMGUS. Seemed like a stretch. So either Snow Bunny is a mafia trying to set up a townie death or SB's just an overeager townie!

Also, I'd like a clarification on the whole family thing! Seems like an easy mistake to make, but how far SHOULD we be reading into it?

Scum AND town have to move the game forward even if the results are different (scum are interested in survival / finding mislynches whereas town are interested in finding scum).

Does anything in your stance change when CD admits it was an OMGUS?

What do you think your vote for SB means in relation to CD?

Why is "family" an easy mistake to make?

[Snow_Bunny]

any way no one yet can I say has earned my vote, but if you guys want to bandwagon someone then I will help you out. That's all I am saying, for tonight, btw nice new avvy Netopalis.

This doesn't sound good to me... So, first, you are willing to no-lynch, then, you will just lynch for the sake of lynching. You are just not getting the point of the game, or you are a scum that's using that as an excuse (and I'm beginning to think that you are actually scum.)

@Sposh: It was OMGUS???? Then, tell me, what it was? What other reasons can you see in his vote? I say that it's OMGUS, and I'm not attacking him for that. Just saying that OMGUS is never a good thing (for me, that's a good way to start discussion), and paired with his recent posts, it makes me believe there's something suspicious about him.

[Netopalis]

Cooldog, after some reflection, I think that there's a better way to examine the question of no lynch instead of percentages. Given that the town will lynch every day and the mafia every night, and assuming that neither ever hits mafia, we have the following scenario:

Day 1 - 9
Day 2 - 7
Day 3 - 5
Day 4 - 3 - LYLO and game, either way

However, if we go with town no-lynching for the first 3 days, we have the following:
Day 1 - 9
Day 2 - 8
Day 3 - 7
Day 4 - 6 - LYLO because mafia will get a kill. If town kills town, then that brings it down to 3 town and 2 mafia, mafia kills town, making it even and a mafia win.

Therefore, the town does not get any additional days of discussion, they just lose the opportunity to make a potentially good kill.

Furthermore, the information gained from a night session to the town is minimal at best - for a cop to be useful, he has to claim, something that most cops are hesitant to do until the final day. It is also possible that we don't even have a cop. Trying to guess the mafia based on the lynches can be useful, but often turns into WIFOM (would X kill Y if they were mafia, or would Z kill Y if they were mafia and wanted to incriminate X? Or what if X only wanted us to think that Z was incriminating them? This line of reasoning goes on forever if you let it.)

Ergo, the question is not one of percentages, as the town will never gain a significant statistical advantage through town deaths - it is merely one of the number of opportunities to kill that each side has.

[Netopalis]

Double post to fix some problems....The first scenario would end on day 3 for the same reasons as the second scenario. The second scenario could be extended to day 5 by another no-lynch, but that wouldn't really help matters much.

Basically, in summation, all that voting No Lynch does is to vote to give the mafia a day kill.

[SpyreX]

Not to mention the other things that can happen with a lynch. For example: Day 1 we pull it together and hit the Mafia RB.

That opens up some serious possibilities for the next day. In that situation, what do you think could happen?