Mafia 108 - Mafia With The Quickness - over!

[Netopalis]

Posted earlier, site ate it.

KMD: You, Glork and Kerrigan, mostly, but it's a light read. I don't like how quickly you are jumping to conclusions.

Also, how am I "Changing my story"? I'm not sure that I've done that anywhere. Incidentally, I've elaborated on my position in MD multiple times, well before I received my role for this game. If you want to find me scummy, go ahead, but preferring questions over RVS is not a good reason to do so.

[Kmd4390]

Neto, I don't mean your theory talk. I mean your random vote.

[Zachrulez]

What about an avoidance of bandwagons which generate reactions and information?

[Netopalis]

How is that changing my story? I said from the beginning that I didn't want to bandwagon. Everything that I have said has been internally consistent. You can disagree with my position, sure, but that doesn't mean that I'm changing my story.

[Glork]

No, I believed the read to be accurate.

Please answer my question.

No, there isn't a 50% chance on anyone's alignment.

I can't tell if you're just playing the fool or not, but I'm going to try to explain this very clearly.


In your average 12-13 player game, there are 3-4 scums, which is 25-33%. If you are protown, then at the start of a game, any other player has a 25-33% chance of flipping scum if they were to be lynched immediately.

You stated that a player (in this case, Netlava) is "probably scum." By its very definition, the word "probably" means that you believe there is a >50% chance that Netlava is scum.

Now, there are two things that I want to know:
1) If I were to dayvig Netlava right now, do you think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum? I want you to think about what that means before answering.
2) If the answer to the above is "yes, I do think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum," why aren't you pushing his lynch?

[Netlava]

*claps slowly* Way to go - Saint is voting your town read and Haylen is voting with you. Bravo, bravo.

This post still gives me a bad vibe, though.

[Netopalis]

*claps slowly* Way to go - Saint is voting your town read and Haylen is voting with you. Bravo, bravo.

This post still gives me a bad vibe, though.

Why? Do you have any comments on the recent events? Your posts have been rather cryptic and, well...useless.

[Zachrulez]

Actually I do get the same vibe as Netlava from that post.

It's heavy on sarcasm... and possibly even gloating.

[Annachie]

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

Bull. Sounds more like attempted justification for things you already know.

FOS KMD

[Maemuki]

It's heavy on sarcasm...

There's plenty more of that. Want?

and possibly even gloating.

Actually, that's just the sarcasm. You're just interpreting it wrongly. You would think someone that had a town read would protect said town read no?

[Glork]

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

Bull. Sounds more like attempted justification for things you already know.

FOS KMD

I dobut it's even things he already knows. It sounds to me like he's just trying to get people to fall into his line of thought.

Your post, annachie, is exactly in line with the original point I was trying to make, which is: Very rarely does a player actually have a "solid read" on Page 2 of a game... much less FOUR "solid reads."

KMD was talking bigger than he actually thought, and that implies that his voiced "opinions" are insincere.

[Kmd4390]

How is that changing my story? I said from the beginning that I didn't want to bandwagon. Everything that I have said has been internally consistent. You can disagree with my position, sure, but that doesn't mean that I'm changing my story.

I asked why you didn't bandwagon, you said it was because you don't like random voting.

You said you voted for no reason, then later said you used a random number generater.

Then you went on about theory and I stopped paying attention.

In your average 12-13 player game, there are 3-4 scums, which is 25-33%. If you are protown, then at the start of a game, any other player has a 25-33% chance of flipping scum if they were to be lynched immediately.

Yep.

You stated that a player (in this case, Netlava) is "probably scum." By its very definition, the word "probably" means that you believe there is a >50% chance that Netlava is scum.

See, I don't think about numbers and percentages when I use words like that. It's my way of saying that is my opinion. I don't know what would be a better word, but that's just semantics, so I'm sticking with that.

Now, there are two things that I want to know:
1) If I were to dayvig Netlava right now, do you think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum? I want you to think about what that means before answering.
2) If the answer to the above is "yes, I do think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum," why aren't you pushing his lynch?

1) No, not even close to 50%. Assuming it starts around 30%, there's maybe a 35% chance. I realize that odds say there is a good chance that I'm wrong on, what, two thirds of my reads? That's not going to stop me from trying to get my reads though.

2) Let's pretend for a second that I did answer "yes". I think it's important to get a look at every player. Some players haven't even posted yet. We aren't ready to lynch.

*claps slowly* Way to go - Saint is voting your town read and Haylen is voting with you. Bravo, bravo.

This post still gives me a bad vibe, though.

Are you going to say anything about anyone other than Mae?

Bull. Sounds more like attempted justification for things you already know.

FOS KMD

Why FoS when you don't have a vote out?

KMD was talking bigger than he actually thought

Meh, that's my playstyle. When you are confident, people follow you. When people follow you, you have more control over whether you win or lose the game.

[Netopalis]

Voting for no reason and a random number generator are not mutually exclusive. I had no reason behind my vote - I chose the target of my meaningless vote randomly.

Also, I find it suspect that you started asking me about theory, then all of a sudden you're telling me to shut up about theory.

[Maemuki]

@ kmd, why would you like having people following you on your reads...if you weren't sure of them?

[Kmd4390]

I asked you about theory? Prove it.

[Kmd4390]

@ kmd, why would you like having people following you on your reads...if you weren't sure of them?

I'm more sure of my reads than I am of anyone else's. Well, more sure that they are genuine anyway.

[Netopalis]

If you hate random voting, why are you voting Maemuki?

What did you mean by your statement about the bandwagon?

The first question necessarily dictates a theoretical answer. I can't explain without going into theory...

[Netopalis]

Incidentally, "I know I'm town" has failed to clear *anybody* of suspicion in any mafia game. It's a useful thing to remember, but as an argumentative point, it sucks.

[Kmd4390]

If you hate random voting, why are you voting Maemuki?

What did you mean by your statement about the bandwagon?

The first question necessarily dictates a theoretical answer. I can't explain without going into theory...

That was game-specific. I was asking for your reasons for voting Mae.

[Kmd4390]

Incidentally, "I know I'm town" has failed to clear *anybody* of suspicion in any mafia game. It's a useful thing to remember, but as an argumentative point, it sucks.

I'm not asking to be cleared. I'm answering the question. I was asked why I want people following me. Well, that's why.

[Maemuki]

I'm more sure of my reads than I am of anyone else's. Well, more sure that they are genuine anyway.

Figures. Anyway. Would be leading the town a scumtell, kmd? Would be mislynching a person because you said so helpful for your (I'm assuming here) town win condition?

[Netopalis]

And my reasons for voting Mae obviously had something to do with theory. Every vote on P1 is based on some sort of theoretical underpinning.

[Kmd4390]

Figures. Anyway. Would be leading the town a scumtell, kmd? Would be mislynching a person because you said so helpful for your (I'm assuming here) town win condition?

Leading the town isn't a tell one way or the other. It's a playstyle (or maybe personality trait, but meh).

And my reasons for voting Mae obviously had something to do with theory. Every vote on P1 is based on some sort of theoretical underpinning.

I don't think ALL of that theory talk was necessary to explain your vote.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote Netlava

[Annachie]

Why FoS when you don't have a vote out?

Since we see to be past the RVS stage, casting a vote is serious and needs reasons and stuff.

So far KMD, I'm only suspicious of you. That's not enough reason for a vote.