My logic:
With 5 players remaining, cop can clear 2, giving a 2/3 chance of hitting scum. Easier to find connections, etc. Narrow down the odds.
Scenario 1:
Cop doesn't claim.
2/5 base chance of hitting scum.
Then either a. 1/3 base chance cop dies at night leaving no-one clear. or b. town victory
Scenario 2:
Cop claims.
2/3 base chance of hitting scum.
Cop dies, cleared townie survives.
1/2 base chance of victory.
Factor in actual scum-hunting for connections and 2 is the better bet. I doubt NS and horror would be scum together. Me/Button would be similarly unlikely.
If I were scum, I would have kept my mouth shut. Hell, I would have claimed cop.
Bleh, I guess Karma/Horror or Karma/Button as the scum. Either that or I'm completely of the deep end with my logic (which I don't see).
You can label that as WIFOM, but it doesn't change the fact that it isn't in scum's best interest to push a cop claim rather than looking for "cop tells".
scum lynched today
1/3 chance of scum hitting cop
if cop not hit => scum counterclaims, 1/2 base chance (although scum have a fair chance of screwing up so you)
if cop hit => 1/3 base chance
1/3*1/3 + 2/3*1/2 = 0.44 although if scum screw up could be 0.77.
In doing that, I found a point I didn't add before (which I ought to have remembered in the first place really).
If cop doesn't claim today, they will be counterclaimed tomorrow anyway.
--
Now, I'm not scum, I don't feel I look scummy, you have no case on me, the claiming thing is not bad, etc...
I've kinda given my ideas as to who I think scum is.
I feel Karma should know better, but I accept that may just be frustration on my part. Still "gut", so second pick.
Horror is still my first pick for scum as before.
I'm pretty sure that's everything I've got. Your move.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest some hard-bussing is happening here from Budja. Just by PoE.
Who do you think he is bussing?
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
Karma wrote: some hard-bussing is happening here from Budja.
Doesn't really strike me as hard core.
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
He hasn't posted in here since you got put at L-1.
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
Budja, if you say that prob scum teams are Karma/Me or Karma/Button, then why do you have your vote on me rather than Karma?
Vote: Budja
Failscum is fail.
The Clown is Town. The Clown also uses "they" pronouns. Don't be a dick about it?
I know it's weird given the username, but "horrorperson" just doesn't have the same ring to it.
The Clown is Town. The Clown also uses "they" pronouns. Don't be a dick about it?
I know it's weird given the username, but "horrorperson" just doesn't have the same ring to it.
Does nobody in this game realize that they are hammering?
Why are you upset that was the hammer if you think he's scum?
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
Nobody Special wrote:Well, I guess we wait for tomorrow, now.
For what?
Routine day with a dirt cheap brush
Then a week goes by and it goes untouched
Then two, then three, then a month
Then the rest of your life, you beat yourself up
.
