Open 253: Sea Container C9++ [GAME OVER]

[Mafuyu]

Now now, 'would have' arguments lead to very dark places with bad mistakes.

Not really. How would we catch scum if we were clueless about what they "would" do?

Delving too deeply in to "X player as scum would have went after Y" just leads to "Well, they might have", and that's pretty much it. Worst case scenario is a premature outing of roles (yay case evidence).

That is to say: focus on the now, and not the before-this-game. Meta only works so well.

[Katsuki]

SA, I don't see any validity in your argument... actually, it looks really WIFOMish. I'm not sure I like how quickly the last two players jumped on you though so I won't vote yet.

To all:
Massclaim, Yes or No and why?

Unvote, Vote mothrax

Should be obvious why. (hint: The fact that there is only one answer to that question anyways is ridic).

[andrew94]

care to explain?

[mothrax]

I'm interested in hearing this as well. Massclaim has it's advantages in that we can narrow down the setup as this is really semi-open. If we do that we can find out what roles we may be up against. We can also use it to weed out fakeclaims as there are only so many that would work in this game. I do see the disadvantages as well such as outing prs. That's why I wanted others opinions. As for my SA comment, consider it an fos minus the actuall words fos. It's no different.

[Katsuki]

Granted I have never played C9 before, but really, why the fuck would you mass claim at this stage? Firstly, it really is not hard to fake-claim PRs. Secondly, the game then develops into a "follow the PR" sort of game, which I refuse to play (after I played a game where I over-ruled my gut and went with PRs). VTs are also in game, and really, considering that no PR has yet to flip, mass-claim now would only benefit scum.

FOS: Andrew

Note: Despite this being semi-open, the number of possible role combinations is numerous, hence rendering an early mass-claim rather useless.

[mothrax]

Ok then. I wasn't saying we had to do it, I wanted other peoples thoughts on the matter.I like the fos on Andrew though, gives you a new out when your vote on me goes no where. You are voting people for asking valid questions. (neither of us have played this setup before,) I am just trying to cover all angles.

[jmj3000]

Dude, moth, you just have to look at the set-up to see why a mass-claim is terrible. I could see mentioning mass-claim later in the game, but bringing it up this early smells of fishing. SA, your argument is I killed furc because of a game I was watching that I knew the scum team and he mentions 2 of them in passing until after he died then he started to realize what the rest of town was failing to notice. Mafuyu, I am not making a silly of myself, I am defending myself against a weak case.

[Katsuki]

VALID QUESTION?

ARE YOU SHITTING ME?
THAT WAS NOWHERE NEAR A VALID QUESTION AT THE END OF PAGE EFFING 2.

As for andrew, his question ("request") was just as bad as yours

[jmj3000]

Oh, I almost forgot. Mongoose, quit your active lurking. You saying people need to post more without adding anything yourself until prompted is scummy also.

[andrew94]

i alrady told u, first time c9

[Katsuki]

Same here

[sirdanilot]

Votecount:
Katsuki (1): Nexus
Alduskkel (1): mothrax
yellowbounder (1): andrew94
jmj3000 (1): Sleepless Assassin
andrew94 (1): mongoose
mothrax (2): Alduskkel, Katsuki
Sleepless Assassin (1): Mafuyu

Not Voting (10): yellowbounder, jmj3000, a2rudeboy

With 11 people, it's 6 votes to lynch.

[Sleepless Assassin]

SA, I don't see any validity in your argument... actually, it looks really WIFOMish. I'm not sure I like how quickly the last two players jumped on you though so I won't vote yet.

I know it's WIFOM. That's the whole point. I'm not sure why site meta is "WIFOM is this big scary thing and we need to stay away from it". It's not. If I'm right, I'll use this game to show why.

To all:
Massclaim, Yes or No and why?

No. There is literally zero benefit for town.

excuse me, first time playing c9+++
can someone explain what the first page of letters is about?

There's a bunch of roles and a set way to decide which ones, and how many of each, are in the game.

Delving too deeply in to "X player as scum would have went after Y" just leads to "Well, they might have", and that's pretty much it. Worst case scenario is a premature outing of roles (yay case evidence).

It's not "might or might not". It's about determining whether or not we think they did. Currently, I think it makes sense and his response has reinforced my thoughts.

[Mafuyu]

Why massclaim is bad: Cherry-picking. The higher up the town power role scale goes, the more immunities and tricks that scum get to bag.
This leads to a substantial benefit for scum, and a marginal benefit for town.

Putting it more simply, a massclaim will only lead to an information-manipulation game, which by the nature of this game town is ridiculously ill-equipped to handle.
How many C9++ games have there been thus far? Mafuyu's kinda curious now.

[mongoose]

sorry I haven't been posting guys. I tend not to post too much in the start of games since RVS usually reflects a person's characteristics and not their role, so I can't really find too many reads. And I forgot to check the thread today. :p

Anyways,

unvote, vote mothrax

First off, mass claim was a stupid idea. Not only that, but you were extremely indecisive. From what I know that tends to be a way to try to get something done (for the scum team), then claim you never really vouched for it. Also, your logic is slightly wrong, as katsu explained. I dont really see any other scummy reads right now though.

[mothrax]

Thank you maf for being the only person to respond rationally to a genuine question. When I said valid I meant I wanted to know the pros and cons, which now I do know. As for wishy-washy, I explained that while I did see SAs pushing this lynch slightly scummy I also saw the way votes piled up as scummy which is why I didn't vote him. Kat, you of all people know that quicklynches are horrible...
You are voting me for less scum and more ignorance.

[Mafuyu]

It's not "might or might not". It's about determining whether or not we think they did. Currently, I think it makes sense and his response has reinforced my thoughts.

It might be player bias that Mafuyu thinks otherwise. This is exactly why Mafuyu would up revealing Mason status in the last C9++, because of meta-based 'might have's. It just seems like it would lead to probabilistic uncertainties at best.

Yes, player A knowing player B might thus kill them for X reason. They might also kill players C-D for Y reason. X reason has a slightly better result for A-scum's play. However, C-D might also have killed B for Z reason or Y reason, which means that at the very best you wind up with a slightly weighted bias towards B. The fact that you are pushing it to the degree you do is obvious (you want to gauge reactions to see if X>>Y in methodology, thus if A is scum then A MUST have killed B), but it still neglects C-D players.

Sum: Yes, you might be right that he has good reason as scum to play as he has. Unless you account for the rest of the playerbase, however, this is leverage at best and player-biased tunnelling at worst. And to be honest, your entry reasoning for his play is horrible and easily negated by the simple observation that players will tend to tweak their play the more games they play. You're not going to make a disputable comment about his previous games and expect it to fly now, that's just poor form.
Bonus: Also keep in mind that you're making a scum/sk setup play right now. Also keep in mind that it has actually worked in the past.



Now then, for Mothrax. More votes on him are in order, if only to make him squirm and see what oozes out. Mass-claim is silly for easily-noted reasons, so the simplest rationales for his play are:
1. Stupid throwaway scum.
2. Lack of effort in interpreting setup base results (how doing X publicly would affect the game)
3. Attempting to gauge reactions.

Bear in mind that of the two towny reactions, neither are actually weighted towards being town reactions. Gauging is something both sides are capable of doing (and something an SK must eventually do) and a lack of effort can be attributed to anyone that's just playing the game casually or with more important things on their mind.

So, if he's going to convince anyone that he is town, Mafuyu thinks he'd better hit the ground running or lose credibililty.

[Mafuyu]

And, as further exposition on the topic of massclaim:

Mafuyu still believes that this setup is one in which SK/Scumteam communication is actually a strong D1-2 play. Should 1. Massclaim occur and 2. Both anti-town teams properly establish the other, an irreversible amount of damage can be done to town. While this actually favors the SK (who is basically immune to scum night-play antics), it's a viable strategy for both anti-town teams as scum will have superiority in numbers to eventually betray the SK and the SK will have information to slowly manipulate the town towards offing their rivals.

[mothrax]

(trying so hard not to fly into capslock rage right now)

This was my thought behind massclaim: When we know what roles are in the game we can work backwards to narrow down the possible letter combinations to less than 10 and have an idea of which are most likely. From there we could extrapolate which claims don't really fit or are statistically improbable, giving us a good chance at finding scum. Since the cons have been pointed out, I no longer support this. but hey, here is a thought... I ASKED BECAUSE I WANTED TO HEAR OTHERS THOUGHTS ON IT!!! not because I am scum and fishing, not because I am too lazy... A decent amount of setup speculation is healthy and in a setup I haven't played, I look at all angles.
So to Kat and mongoose, your reasons for voting me are because I did something you percieve as stupid, not because I did something scummy.
To Maf... put your vote where your mouth is. If you want me gone, you better try real damn hard.

[mothrax]

and since I am going to get called out for OMGUS, this is in another post:
My top scumreads ATM are Mafuyu and Katsuki.
They both hopped on Sleepless when he was pushing a case on jmj, and while it was admitadly not a strong one, it was more than others were doing. As soon as they say that wasn't going anywhere, Kat jumped on me for a stupid reason, and was closely followed by Maf, who was wishy-washy enough to accuse me, call me scum, say we needed a wagon on me, but not vote me.

Unvote; Vote Katsuki

[Sleepless Assassin]

How many C9++ games have there been thus far? Mafuyu's kinda curious now.

Who was this to?

Kat, you of all people know that quicklynches are horrible...

Why is this relevant?

Yes, player A knowing player B might thus kill them for X reason. They might also kill players C-D for Y reason. X reason has a slightly better result for A-scum's play. However, C-D might also have killed B for Z reason or Y reason, which means that at the very best you wind up with a slightly weighted bias towards B. The fact that you are pushing it to the degree you do is obvious (you want to gauge reactions to see if X>>Y in methodology, thus if A is scum then A MUST have killed B), but it still neglects C-D players.

You lost me with all the letters and stuff.

your entry reasoning for his play is horrible and easily negated by the simple observation that players will tend to tweak their play the more games they play. You're not going to make a disputable comment about his previous games and expect it to fly now, that's just poor form.

Why are you still acting like I am metaing Jmj's play?

Bonus: Also keep in mind that you're making a scum/sk setup play right now. Also keep in mind that it has actually worked in the past.

I don't get what you are trying to say here.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Mothrax is so town by the way.

And Maf is talking about SKs a lot. Why?

[mothrax]

relevant because [redacted] and the way kat and maf keep piling votes with a few others, a quicklynch is what is going to end up happening.

[a2rudeboy]

picking up prod. still v/la

[Mafuyu]

Interesting method of misinterpreting Mafuyu's intent so as to regain ground.

The jump on SA isn't so much of pushing a case, but doing so

badly

. Your 'better than everyone else' comment means nothing considering that it's still early in pagecount where that's not significant indication of relative player effort.

Also, if Mafuyu thought you were more deserving of a vote than SA, it would happen. Are you saying that Mafuyu can't attack more than one player at a time? Don't claim that someone who is attacking your play is wishy-washy just because they choose not to vote you. What you are doing is analyzing singular parts of Mafuyu's posts and using them to derive an immediately negative conclusion, which doesn't even match up to the intent of the post. Yes, you need a wagon because reaction-gauging via the topic of massclaim is risky and will otherwise lead to obvious conclusions (everyone says no), therefore ulterior motives are to be expected. Maybe, you might be scum, and Mafuyu outlined why. Not voting a player immediately after an outlined discussion does not mean wishy-washiness. Many players can and will go after multiple players without voting them all.

You're biting back for little reason, and Mafuyu believes this to be feigned outrage considering the structure of your last three posts. It's odd for you to try an AtE this early, and unfortunately Mafuyu doesn't see the reasoning for it yet.

@SA: It was a general question, therefore anyone that had any idea could have answered it. To the second, Mafuyu DID sum up that entire letter argument right underneath. To the third, because you were doing it for an odd amount of time and it was Mafuyu's belief that you still retained that intent. Lastly, Mafuyu's last C9++ had "X died as Doctor. There was 1 death. Y is not dead, and Mafuyu would have gone after Y. Therefore, Mafuyu is scum" as a method of attack (by the SK). It worked.

@Mothrax: A quicklynch isn't happening. Don't presume that town is reckless.