Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[Voidedmafia]

Correction: You'll hate my guts at first, but then you'll hail me as saint once I'm right.

Or, yknow, you can always hope Grey isn't scum again. Not that that helps.

[Voidedmafia]

EBWOP: Did I make a bad connection, drawing the conclusion that you were town based on your play from Newbie 1079 being very different from your play here? I mean, I know I was wrong, but was that a bad thing to do?

[GreyICE]

In general, well, meta isn't my favorite. The only thing it's ever done to me is to get me mislynched for 'playing differently than when I was town.' Here it got me cleared for 'playing differently than when I was scum,' I guess, so yay for firsts, but I think it's close enough for my point to stand.

I'm sure eventually I'll be scum, someone will make a meta argument, and I'll get lynched and they'll all be 'well meta works, see, ignore all those other times it didn't' but the fact remains it's a pool of confirmation bias.

If you guys had hammered the setup spec more you could have outed me, but honestly, I was in a fairly good spot for most of the game. Better coordination of abilities and advertising might have helped.

[Ghostlin]

The biggest gamble for me was day 2. MS had already claimed to bid on an auction he clearly couldn't have bid on, and thus was obviously scum. He also wanted a ninja for no comprehensible reason. Furthermore, I was pretty much at L-1, and if I wasn't lynched, was going to die.

The 1v1 with Ghostlin was my big gamble. I knew from the UTTD that the last will would toss it to RC/Voided, and that the cop was actually on WLC. With the cop NOT showing up on the scumbag, my claim of 'shenanigans' regarding the cop bid did make it look like scum 'sekret powahs,' especially since NO ONE SANE would claim to bid $97 on an auction that went for $95, scum or town. Claiming I didn't bid on the Ninja he bid on (He really did bid on it) made his play look even MORE skitzo, and helped sell the 'he didn't immediately counterclaim scum' insanity. I had to gamble Ghostlin would react exactly like scum, but he had no idea what was going on (since the mysterious scum power I claimed obviously didn't exist, so he was like 'waaaaaaaa'), and reacted exactly like caught scum.

Throw in me shipping 'all my money' to Voided, and I had my fingers crossed I'd move from day 2 as 'L-1, lets lynch him' to 'nigh-confirmed town.' Or, well, get lynched, but if I didn't do something dramatic that would happen ANYWAY. After that it was a matter of doing exactly what Ghostlin accused me of in the QT (bussing LLD without voting for her or trying to get her lynched in any strong way) and letting the town drag me to weird places.

Actually, while you can accuse scum of messing up their own game--the point was to get you all killed and then fight over who wins from there. My plan was to amass a whole --lot-- of money and just steal NKs from there while I had the other scum kill likely townies.

My acquisition of Last Will essentially did this: I was blackmailing the other scum faction (I didn't know about GI, in my defense--I figured 9x2x2, not 8x2x2x1) to not try to kill me until about Day 3 and by that time I planned to have the NK ability to start killing obvious scum. When GI replaced in and was parroting LLD--which come on, guys, bob really was acting like scum at that point, and her read wasn't much cleaner--I figured I had found both scummers. Unfortunately, you guys did buy the 'I didn't lie about Cop' from GI (which this plus Philosophy Mafia IMO proves that Town will buy any amount of goods and reads placed in front of their face no matter how rotten they are) thus sealing a ton of..well, not horrible scum play. UTTD as a power is useless if scum don't use it to get rid of the one faction that outnumbers them horribly; Town.

I also agree with GI about abilities and advertising --you shouldn't have let me just advertise Doctor D1, that essentally removed it from play other days, and I feel if you guys had at any point of the game at the Day 3-4 mark considered who you were lynching and why, and really WHY you were lynching them--you could of won this with logic irregardless of money.

Good job, GI.

[Ghostlin]

Also, I am a world class idiot for assuming no SK in a game where it could actually flourish.

[Seacore]

Congrats Grey. I'm probably largely to blame for this loss. I had a lot of set up information at my disposal and I also had all the money information, if I was any less busy I could potentially have done something with it.

Great game Magua, really well balanced and I'm glad for you the game continued to be contested after such a strong town start.

[Faraday]

In general, well, meta isn't my favorite. The only thing it's ever done to me is to get me mislynched for 'playing differently than when I was town.' Here it got me cleared for 'playing differently than when I was scum,' I guess, so yay for firsts, but I think it's close enough for my point to stand.

I'm sure eventually I'll be scum, someone will make a meta argument, and I'll get lynched and they'll all be 'well meta works, see, ignore all those other times it didn't' but the fact remains it's a pool of confirmation bias.

well this just means certain people can't meta though, not that the concept is invalid. i mean you can't treat everyone the same in a game, so meta comes into play there straight away.

[GreyICE]

well this just means certain people can't meta though, not that the concept is invalid. i mean you can't treat everyone the same in a game, so meta comes into play there straight away.

I'd agree to a point, if I see similar quality of posting from MoI that I would expect from Vezok, I'd probably be like 'durrr wut' and start poking like hell, but in general, I'd say that's probably where it stops, a pointing flag.

I think there's an awful lot of confirmation bias when it comes to meta. A meta argument for a player gets the wrong alignment so people say 'oh meta was misapplied.' A meta argument succeeds, and people say that 'oh meta is a great tool.'

Thing is I have another tool that does that. I call it a quarter. Heads town, tails scum. It fails, well, quarter was misflipped. It succeeds, quarter tells are obv excellent.

Null hypothesis is that arguments based entirely on meta are about as good as that quarter, and so far pure meta arguments seem little better than that. (Pure meta - comparing a player's play in this game to a player's play in a scum game and a town game, and determining which it more closely resembles).

I might be convinced to go slightly farther and say it can work quite well on newer players who derp up in their scum games and overreact, but for experienced players, meta ain't going to catch them.

I made a post in Albert B. Rampage's thread about this, although I didn't say it was specifically inspired by this game. You're not looking for the 95% body of work with a good player, you're looking for the little 5% things they really want to do that betray scum motivations (in my case it was me using arguments against LLD that were essentially strawmen - reasonably easily refuted, thus making the case against her weaker, while still positioning myself to gain town cred for her flip. Also my lack of desire to mail money to any confirmed town, despite claiming not to make much money, and thus being unlikely to outbid the Robber on anything).

It doesn't matter if 95% of my play is town, if 5% of it would only happen if I had scum motivations.

[hasdgfas]

Fin