DP12 JeepFest Mafia GAME OVER

[The Shadow]

Oops. I missed my connecting flight.

Vote:Leonidas

for totally random reasons.

[Axelrod]

"Do anything with"

what

, exactly? Basically, DP said that roles aren't just comprised of people actually in attendance at Jeepfest so that everyone knows that a role claim like "MeMe" isn't necessarily bogus and that a role claim of "Jeep" isn't a sure thing. Without DP's statement, a mass claim might have been a possible strategy...

with

DP's statement, it isn't.

So, basically, you want to interpret DP's note as a point in favor of tentatively clearing the actual partygoers which, I believe, is exactly the type of thing DP was trying to show us is fruitless. I'm willing to wager that your role is actually in attendance -- I'm quite

un

willing, however, to go along with the notion that you're less likely to be scum because of it.

And this has nothing to do with the game -- but I just want to clarify that there were no "invitees" to Jeepfest. All GLers and 'scummers were welcome!

Perhaps I did not make myself clear. When I read that part of DP's introduction, it sounded to me like the mafia would be people who were

not

attending the Jeepfest in real life (forget "invited"). Do you disagree with that? It could be wrong--I'm not claiming any kind of inside knowledge--but that's what it sounded like.

In order to

prevent

a mass role claim from breaking the game open, DP has also clearly stated (1) that not everyone who is actually in attendance IRL will be represented in this game and (2) that there will be townie roles in this game who are people not attending the party. Do you disagree with that?

If these statements are true, then the people who have roles that are actually attending the party are more likely to be townies. That's all I'm saying. And it's just a speculation at this point. But it might be relevant later, when people actually start role-claiming.

And I'm not making this speculation based on my own role either, just what has been presented.

[MeMe]

Perhaps I did not make myself clear. When I read that part of DP's introduction, it sounded to me like the mafia would be people who were

not

attending the Jeepfest in real life (forget "invited"). Do you disagree with that?

Yes, I disagree with that. I'm not saying that your "attendees = probably town" theory is

definitely

wrong -- but I

am

saying that interpreting DP's comments as pointing to any particular group of roles as more likely to be innocent than another is, more than likely, a

mis

interpretation. Even if it winds up being true, I doubt that was DP's intent.

In order to

prevent

a mass role claim from breaking the game open, DP has also clearly stated (1) that not everyone who is actually in attendance IRL will be represented in this game and (2) that there will be townie roles in this game who are people not attending the party. Do you disagree with that?

While I believe both of these statements likely to be true, I'll point out that the second wasn't "clearly stated" by DP. He said "other well-known names" without specifying alignment.

If these statements are true, then the people who have roles that are actually attending the party are more likely to be townies. That's all I'm saying.

Well I don't see how, even if both of the statements above were accurate, that

attendees are more likely town

follows as a natural conclusion. That's all

I'm

saying.

[SaberKitty]

I seriously doubt that DP assigned the mafia roles of people who wouldn't be(aren't) there. I interperted the statement to mean that the mafia were aware that roles would consist of people who were(are) and people who weren't(aren't) at Jeepfest. And because the mafia were aware of this fact, DP let the rest of us know too.
From what MeMe said, I think she interperted it the same way I did.

However, I find it kind of...

interesting

... that Axelrod used the phrase "

Do you disagree with that?

" repeatedly.
Yes, he was explaining his reasoning, but why ask if MeMe

disagreed

. Although asking whether someone agrees doesn't change the meaning, it does change the tone of the question. And, it looks like Axelrod is trying to pick a fight.

unvote:olio

fos: Axelrod

[SaberKitty]

...and then MeMe posts when I'm typing....
/blah

[the silent speaker]

This does raise kind of an interesting question. Why should there be people not there represented and people who are there not represented? Simply giving everybody, scum included, names of people there obviates all problems, no? What's wrong with having the scum roles be, e.g. "Jeep and big_kahunia" and simply leaving "Dragon Phoenix and the silent speaker" out of the game?

However, I have to agree with MeMe that given that we do have names of all flavors, for whatever reason, it follows that taking the mod's statement that rolename's attendance does not necessarily correlate to rolename's scumminess to mean that those whose rolenames are in attendance are less likely to be scum (as Axelrod seems to be doing) is just silly.

One final thought, to LoudmouthLee: I don't see Axelrod assuming that there

was

only one family in his initial post. He just threw it out as a possibility.

[LoudmouthLee]

Maybe I was just making a mountain out of a mohill. Who knows.

[Mr Stoofer]

I don't want to stifle discussion of tactics but surely DP's point is as simply as this: although the theme is JeepFest, you cannot assume that someone is/isn't in the game because they are/aren't at Jeepfest.

And while he didn't say it, it must be a pretty fair bet that you can't assume someone is/isn't scum because the are/aren't at Jeepfest.

[olio]

I do get feeling Axelrod is making way to a safe-claim, even though he ends his speculation with disclaimer:
[quote="Axelrod]
And I'm not making this speculation based on my own role either, just what has been presented. [/quote]

[PeaceBringer]

I would think DP wouldn't make things easy from a mass claim statement.

Given a DP game I wouldn't rule out recruitement as a possibilty. If a killer got blocked in any way night one that was fortunate but we cannot rely on that as the answer.

No reason to move from my random vote at the moment.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Vote count, 10 to lynch:

MeMe 2 (PBug, rolandofthewhite)
Leonidas 2 (Peacebringer, the Shadow)
Nox 1 (MeMe)
rolandofthewhite 1 (Commodore Amazing)
SaberKitty 1 (Someone)
Axelrod 1 (LoudmouthLee)
PBug 1 (thesilentspeaker)
Mr Stoofer 1 (Fuldu)
Peacebringer 1 (Olio)
Someone 1 (NanooktheWolf)
thesilentspeaker 1 (Mr Stoofer)

[Commodore Amazing]

vote:saberkitty

The only person with a worse name for random voting than me.

unvote: rolandofthewhite, vote: Someone

.

Lynch all liars.

[SaberKitty]

Lynch all liars

huh?

-SK

[the silent speaker]

I notice that aside from EYNH, who's posted to tell us he's not here, there's only one person who has neither voted nor been voted for.

Unvote: PBuG, vote: Vesuvan

, partly for lurking (he hasn't posted yet!) partly because there's at least the possiblity that the votelessness is connected to people avoiding voting for him. I am also a little suspicious of SaberKitty for unvoting her random without doing anything constructive with her vote.

[Vesuvan]

Semi-random

Vote: Axelrod

. From looking over games I've been in lately, the first person to speculate on the number and nature of killing groups is more often than not a killer themselves.

[Axelrod]

Semi-random

Vote: Axelrod

. From looking over games I've been in lately, the first person to speculate on the number and nature of killing groups is more often than not a killer themselves.

Such as, oh I don't know, Mini 175 (the only other game we have ever been in together) where I was most definately town.

Hey, come to think of it, you voted for me first in that game too. What the hell!

Vote Vesuvan

Meh. You were town in that game too.

Unvote

I just prefer actually talking about stuff. Look at

any

game I have ever been in. The random voting that starts off every game around here annoys me. Unfortunately that tends to make me a target. I've been killed the first night after a day in every game I've played on this site (excepting the one game where I actually was a mafia.) But I accept that. I'd still rather speculate. It's much more interesting.

[The Shadow]

FOS:Axelrod

It gets on my nerves when someone votes and then unvotes in the same post.

[Vesuvan]

Semi-random

Vote: Axelrod

. From looking over games I've been in lately, the first person to speculate on the number and nature of killing groups is more often than not a killer themselves.

Such as, oh I don't know, Mini 175 (the only other game we have ever been in together) where I was most definately town.

Hey, come to think of it, you voted for me first in that game too. What the hell!

Yep, and I had the same reasoning there. It's not a 100% tell by any means, but it helps with finding where my first vote goes.

I just prefer actually talking about stuff. Look at any game I have ever been in. The random voting that starts off every game around here annoys me. Unfortunately that tends to make me a target. I've been killed the first night after a day in every game I've played on this site (excepting the one game where I actually was a mafia.) But I accept that. I'd still rather speculate. It's much more interesting.

As you have seen me play in more games than most people here from reading the games I've played in on other sites, you should know that I am quite strongly against early-game speculation on the setup except when I'm scum and have a good way of manipulating the town by doing so.

Speculation regarding setup can't really be done all that effectively until day 2 at the earliest anyway since there is only a single event (night) to draw conclusions from and the only people with any information beyond their own role are mafia (who want to mislead the town) and townies with power-roles (who should not reveal themselves early in the game).

[PeaceBringer]

FOS:Axelrod

It gets on my nerves when someone votes and then unvotes in the same post.

Fine UNVOTE LEONIDAS

VOTE THE SHADOW

UNVOTE THE SHADOW

VOTE LEONIDAS

it bugs me when people point fingers over things that annoy them.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm always suspicious when someone is accused of lurking (or similar) and then posts very soon afterwards. So

FOS: Vesuvan

.

[Axelrod]

As you have seen me play in more games than most people here from reading the games I've played in on other sites, you should know that I am quite strongly against early-game speculation on the setup except when I'm scum and have a good way of manipulating the town by doing so.

Speculation regarding setup can't really be done all that effectively until day 2 at the earliest anyway since there is only a single event (night) to draw conclusions from and the only people with any information beyond their own role are mafia (who want to mislead the town) and townies with power-roles (who should not reveal themselves early in the game).

Well I obviously disagree. Early speculation

can

be effective. More to the point, I do it all the time, and by all the time, I mean every game I have ever been in--with some small success I might add. So for you to suggest that it means I am more likely to be a mafia is flatly untrue.

Even more to the point, you appear to realize this (or possibly you only realize it now?), but you are still trying to argue the point. Or are you just making a general game-theory-meta-game type argument that has nothing to do with me?

Even if that is what you are doing, I still probably disagree. You say that the mafia (who have more information at this point) could use early game speculation to try and mislead the town. Well, they could

try

, but those activities would still leave a record. If it later turned out that a "theory" advanced by a player was dead wrong, and, in fact harmful to town interests, that player would be on the hot-seat, as would players who supported him/her (and you might even be able to get a read or the people who were "opposed" to the idea, from the "manner" in which they were opposed. In that sense, early game speculation is the safest kind of speculation, because there is the most time to figure things out and "fix" theories which have been shown to be wrong.

The ultimate point is that it is better for the town to be talking--and talking about something game related--than spinning its wheels.

At least that's how I play it. But enough about my philosophy. What do you want to talk about?

[Fuldu]

If it later turned out that a "theory" advanced by a player was dead wrong, and, in fact harmful to town interests, that player would be on the hot-seat, as would players who supported him/her (and you might even be able to get a read or the people who were "opposed" to the idea, from the "manner" in which they were opposed.

The thing is, the above is precisely the argument I would use in claiming that those who speculate Day One are more likely to be scum. If proposing an inaccurate theory is more likely to garner suspicion in the later days, why would a townsperson, with little or no information about the setup, risk throwing out an idea that might be completely wrong? Scum, on the other hand, have a greater supply of info about the setup and are better able to judge what information to release as "speculation" and when it is more safe to provide inaccurate information. See Checkmate mafia for a good example of a single piece of misinformation that survived until it was in the interest of one of the mafia members to disavow it (namely the presumption of four 2-person mafias instead of the actual two 4-person mafias).

Also, information that's bad for the town doesn't have to be untrue. If I were scum who had attempted a kill last night that didn't go through, I would be speculating truthfully that a kill was blocked to try to read people's responses in an attempt to find who blocked it and how. Done subtly, that's not going to make me more suspicious down the line, because it will turn out that I was right. But it can cost the town a doc/roleblocker/other.

On the other hand, what does town gain from speculating about only a single kill? Well, we can go into tonight expecting a decent possibility that there will be two kills. I'm not sure how or why that would affect any of our actions either today or tonight. So what good is it? In games with an unusual mechanic, I can see the value of discussing what might be going on, but in a game like this where it's just a matter of whether there's one scum group or two, it doesn't serve any useful purpose.

As for the random votes, in those instances where the random votes turn into a random lynch, I'd have to agree that they're not very useful. But if your concern is that they mean we're spinning our wheels instead of talking about something game-related, I don't think you have a very broad definition of game-related. In most of the games I've played, the early game random votes turn into a discussion about something and the lynch falls out of that discussion. It may not be anything specific to the game being discussed, but there are usually reasons along with unabashed bandwagoning, and those are things that one can read motive into on later days.

[Nox]

This is just a notifier that I am not lurking, I am simply non-present(Havent read the game since last post). I have been away since the 28th, and am only coming back on the 7th. I only got a few seconds to come online at my grandfathers house, and its frankly not enough to "get in the game".

[EnterYourNameHere]

No more 12-hour workdays for me. I'm back.

Anyway, people should stop speculating on who the mafia is role-wise until we actually lynch one of them. Then, we'll actually be able to look for possible patterns. But until then, we need to be speculating on which PLAYERS are scum, and not which roles are.

FOS: Axelrod, SaberKitty, MeMe, the_silent_speaker, and anyone else that was discussing this that I missed

.

Vote: Vesuvan

. He posted only an hour after someone commented on his absence. It's obviously not damning evidence, but I think it's the best we have to go on at the moment.

[MeMe]

1) I can discuss whatever the hell I want to discuss.

but

2) Pointing out that someone

else

's speculation is not solid isn't even close to being synonymous with "speculating on who the mafia is role-wise."

unvote: Nox
vote: EnterYourNameHere

I'll also point out that Leonidas is the only player yet to post.