Mini320: Urban Legends Mafia is over!

[Drummer]

OFFICIAL DAY 2 VOTECOUNT:

help im a bug--1(Der Hammer)

Sentinel99--2(BrizzyBoi, bluesoul)
Der Hammer--2(Yosarian2, Sentinel99)

audacesiuvat--1(help im a bug)
broomhead--1(VisMaior)

Not voting--3(audacesiuvat, broomhead, Osloboditelj)

With ten alive, it's six to lynch.

[bluesoul]

It's cool, town, vote me. I'm no scum, but I am expendable.

(shakes head)

Why do people say stuff like that?

I didn't really think the argumetn against you was that strong, but why would you suddenly claim to have a weak role and call yourself "expendable" like that? It's just not good for the town when people do that.

He's still fairly new to online Mafia (I go to school with him). I'm not sure if he's gambiting or just being new. For right now all I can do is metagame, and by that, I'm okay with where my vote is. But by all means Sentinel, go ahead and share what you're wanting to share, since you're obviously eager to.

[BrizzyBoi]

Okay, in the interest of sharing information, would anybody like to know what stikey's role meant? Because I know. I don't know if anybody else does, but I can explain it. All anyone has to do is ask. That will also explain why I defended him.

That would be much appreciated. The more information the better, but if you could explain how you know that would be even better.

Oh, and I'm sorry, Brizzy. I didn't realize the time difference. I was getting excited earlier.

That's cool, sometimes it's just a little frustrating when I am very rarely online at the same time as the majority of the other players.

Unvote: Sentinel99

downgraded to

FOS: Sentinel99

pending information.

Also @ help im a bug - What hunch do you have about audacesiuvat?

[Der Hammer]

Unvote

My vote on Bug was mainly for seemingly trying to start something on Stikey on Day One, but I must be wrong as he has come up clean.

[help im a bug]

It's just a hunch, partially backed up by my role. From the information I have, I'd say there's about a 20% chance he belongs to an antitown killing group. I wanted to see how he'd respond if I pressured him. I'll claim fully when I have more conclusive information.

I'm definitely not trying to quicklynch here.

[Sentinel99]

unvote: Der Hammer

Okay, now that that's out of the way...

stikey was Farmer, pro-town, savvy? Well, I'm Farmer's Wife, pro-town. We were a mason pair. I knew who he was, and he knew who I was, and we discussed things in the night rounds. I defended stikey because I knew he was clean. Also, he did me a favor and breadcrumbed a bit so I could prove we're in together.

This is a

s

eriously

e

asy,

n

o-

t

hought-

i

nvolved,

n

o-

e

xcuses

l

ynch.

Bolds are mine, of course. 8)

[bluesoul]

Did it say in your role PM that you're both pro-town or are you just assuming?

[Sentinel99]

It says directly that I know for a fact that he's not part of the mafia.

[audacesiuvat]

It's just a hunch, partially backed up by my role. From the information I have, I'd say there's about a 20% chance he belongs to an antitown killing group. I wanted to see how he'd respond if I pressured him. I'll claim fully when I have more conclusive information.

20 percent? Heck, I'll take those odds. If we assume that we have 2 more scum left, then with 10 people left and no other information then everybody has a 20% chance of being scum. Heck, if we remove the confirmed innocents (BrizzyBoi, help im a bug, Sentinel99), then my 20% chance looks great in comparison to the 2/7 (28.6%) random chance!

[Sentinel99]

FOS: bluesoul

Two days in a row he's jumped on me fairly quickly for tiny things, and he knew I'm a noob. I mean, I can understand jumping on me for some of the things I've said. But honest misunderstandings born of naivety? Weak reasoning, I know, but all I've got to go on at this point.

[VisMaior]

20 percent? Heck, I'll take those odds. If we assume that we have 2 more scum left, then with 10 people left and no other information then everybody has a 20% chance of being scum. Heck, if we remove the confirmed innocents (BrizzyBoi, help im a bug, Sentinel99), then my 20% chance looks great in comparison to the 2/7 (28.6%) random chance!

Fallacy much? Compare yourself with proven protown himabs extra info incriminating you and a random person-> you come out top.

[bluesoul]

FOS: bluesoul

Two days in a row he's jumped on me fairly quickly for tiny things, and he knew I'm a noob. I mean, I can understand jumping on me for some of the things I've said. But honest misunderstandings born of naivety? Weak reasoning, I know, but all I've got to go on at this point.

Unvote

I meant to earlier but I had to leave. You get the noob excuse for one (1) game.

[audacesiuvat]

[quote="VisMaior]Fallacy much? Compare yourself with proven protown himabs extra info incriminating you and a random person-> you come out top.[/quote]

I'm not quite sure what you mean by that. I am assuming that hiab, BrizzyBoi, and Sentinel are innocent, and that we have 2 scum left (both reasonable assumptions IMO). Knowing no other information, the remaning seven people each have a 28.6% chance of being scum. hiab says that he has information that puts me at around 20% of being scum. 28.6% > 20%. I don't see a fallacy.

Put another way, hiab is saying that there's about an 80% chance I'm pro-town. All I'm trying to show that that hiab saying that I'm about 20% to be scum doesn't mean all that much.

[VisMaior]

So you are saying that because himab has incriminating evidece on you, you are less likely scum. Still dont see the fallacy?

The whole 20% business is not accurate, the fact is tha hiab has something(or at least he says he has) that could incriminate you, but he is not sure. You pick the numbers and try to prove your innocence, while the

numbers

actually dont mean that much at all.

[audacesiuvat]

So you are saying that because himab has incriminating evidece on you, you are less likely scum. Still dont see the fallacy?

The whole 20% business is not accurate, the fact is tha hiab has something(or at least he says he has) that could incriminate you, but he is not sure. You pick the numbers and try to prove your innocence, while the

numbers

actually dont mean that much at all.

Incriminating evidence? Hardly. help i'm a bug has claimed a "role-based hunch". If it was truly incriminating, he'd have said there's a 100% chance that I'm scum, not "about a 20% chance", and I'd have been strung up.

And I'm not "picking the numbers", I'm using just what hiab gave us. I'm just trying to argue that a self-professed 20% hunch doesn't amount to much.

[help im a bug]

Okay.

My evidence says 20% chance of you being scum.

Random chance (including everyone) says 20% chance as well.

Those stack.

Using my 20% figure, there's a (.8 * .8) = .64 = 64% chance of you not being scum, which means a 36% chance of you being scum.

See? The 20% chance doesn't replace the random chance that every one of us has, it simply adds with it.

[Yosarian2]

At this point, I'm more then willing to follow a "role-based hunch" from a confirmed good guy, until I have a reason not to.

vote:audacesiuvat

Help I'm A Bug: It's completly up to you, but at this point, you are unfortunatly likely to die tonight, as you're a confirmed innocent and all; if you have any role-based info that you think would help the town, it might be a good idea to share it before the end of the day.

[Yosarian2]

That should have been

unvote

.

vote:audacesiuvat

[audacesiuvat]

Okay.

My evidence says 20% chance of you being scum.

Random chance (including everyone) says 20% chance as well.

Those stack.

Using my 20% figure, there's a (.8 * .8) = .64 = 64% chance of you not being scum, which means a 36% chance of you being scum.

See? The 20% chance doesn't replace the random chance that every one of us has, it simply adds with it.

It doesn't work like that.

Say that your evidence showed me as being scum 0% of the time instead. By your argument, those chances would stack, and then there'd be a (.8 * 1) = .8 = 80% of me being pro-town, and 20% chance of me be scum, which obviously can't be the case.

Anyway, we're getting off track arguing about nitty mathematical equations. It doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things.

hiab, could you answer one question? Did your information specifically lay out that I have a 20% chance of being scum, or did that number just come from your interpretation of some information that you received last night? If it was your interpretaion, can we just call it something else, something like "a small but not overwhelming" chance that I'm scum?

[BrizzyBoi]

At this point, I'm more then willing to follow a "role-based hunch" from a confirmed good guy, until I have a reason not to.

vote:audacesiuvat

Help I'm A Bug: It's completly up to you, but at this point, you are unfortunatly likely to die tonight, as you're a confirmed innocent and all; if you have any role-based info that you think would help the town, it might be a good idea to share it before the end of the day.

@ help im a bug - Oops, sorry if by declaring your innocence I made you a target for a nightkill.

In the future should I declare innocent results or keep them to myself until either I hit a mafia or get a few results up my sleeve?

Also I too shall follow help im a bug's hunch and

Vote: audacesiuvat

[Yosarian2]

At this point, BrizzyBoi, it's probably best if you hold any innocent results until the doctor is dead, unless that person is about to get lynched. So long as the doctor is alive, you can assume you'll probably survive, and can reveal the results at a better time later.

[BrizzyBoi]

Cool, good to know. BTW is it worth asking if anyone has any suspects they want investigated , or does that just paint a bullseye on the suspects head for the mafia to night kill them the same night that I am investigating them...ergo wasting my ability for a night?

[bluesoul]

It's best just to use your intuition, in my opinion. Anyone that points someone else out for the cop to look at probably has something to hide themselves. Also, I agree with Yosarian, keep innocent results to yourself.

HIAB, since you may or may not make it to tomorrow, would you go ahead and explain this hunch?

[Der Hammer]

Vote:audacesiuvat

Going along with the hunch. Got lucky yesterday so might be a similar result again.

Bug, I dont think you should give anymore information than what you are certain about

[audacesiuvat]

...

Vote: audacesiuvat

OK, now I'm

really

confused.

I'm better claim now before this gets any more out of hand, and see if we can't get some answers. I'm Cell Phone Guy. I'm a 3-shot mason to whomever I want to send a message to, one call per night. Last night I sent a message to BrizzyBoi to confirm my innocence and tell him not to waste an investigation on me in the future. Or at least I thought I did.

So, I don't know what led help i'm a bug to think that I'm scum, and I'm very confused as to why you're voting for me, BrizzyBoi.