Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Nocmen]

I agree with CES. Random lists are not the way to go (aside from maybe cop). Also, what if you have a role that does not require a list? Then you basically wasted our day giving us info that could be very misleading.

[Glork]

I really don't think that randomizing a list will have a negative impact at all. I realize that this may theoretically be a cover if I were scum, and I understand that I will have that stigma against me for the entirety of the game. I almost posted in the signup thread that I was considering doing this, but I felt that to be somewhat unethical.

If I'm not scum, then the scums will have an unknown role with an entirely unpredictable list to consider when they set up their actions.

I realize that all of this is contingent upon actually believing that I don't know my role, but I think I can solve the randomization "problem." Here's what I was thinking of doing:

• I choose five different permutations or operations to perform on the players of this game, and I post those operations in the thread.
  
• Using the dice function, I randomly select one of those options, but I do not tell you which one I select. (Basically, I'll list the five options, privately assign a value to each one, then roll 1d5 in-thread.)
  
• I
  then
  roll a series of d12s. I was thinking of doing thirty of them -- in case one of the operations continually tries to make *me* the target -- and choosing the first twenty applicable ones.

By doing this, the five possible series of actions from which I have chosen will be determined publicly before night even falls, but only I will know which one I am actually going to use. That way, everyone knows that I will have genuinely

randomly

determined my list as much as can be publicly proven. If anyone else has a better strategy for randomly choosing a list, I'm interested to hear.




If there is an objective case as to why randomizing a list for an unknown role is inherently bad for the town and/or beneficial to the scums, I'd like to hear it. If not, I plan on going through with the plan.

[LoudmouthLee]

Then again, a one-shot seems sort of odd for this game as well, so I'd be content with a vig-lynch target of LML.

Hey jackass! I said I could watch MYSELF once. Doofus. You have totally blipped my scumdar. (AKA, I could watch all others)

[Glork]

For the record, I am about 75% sure that LmL is protown.

[LoudmouthLee]

Then again, a one-shot seems sort of odd for this game as well, so I'd be content with a vig-lynch target of LML.

Hey jackass! I said I could watch MYSELF once. Doofus. You have totally blipped my scumdar. (AKA, I could watch all others)

PS: Just wanted this, in thread, so everyone knows that this quote is attributed to Flay, the person who should be lynched D1. You heard it here first.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

For the record, I am about 75% sure that LmL is protown.

Well, I'm about 40% sure he's scum.

Anyhow, Glrok, this is better. At least you're saying something. Now provide some real content by telling us why you find LmL to be slightly more likely to be town.

[Seol]

Then again, a one-shot seems sort of odd for this game as well, so I'd be content with a vig-lynch target of LML.

Hey jackass! I said I could watch MYSELF once. Doofus. You have totally blipped my scumdar. (AKA, I could watch all others)

PS: Just wanted this, in thread, so everyone knows that this quote is attributed to Flay, the person who should be lynched D1. You heard it here first.

you're quite sure this was malicious, and not just a cock-up? because i'm seeing a little bit of pot/kettle here y'know.

plus massive over-reaction.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I actually made the same mistake too at first. I think it's a fairly natural way of reading it(ie I'm a cop, I can investigate people). Silly LmL.

[VampanezeHunter]

So only the cop should do a random list. But any others should plan their list?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No. Noone should make a random list.

[LoudmouthLee]

Then again, a one-shot seems sort of odd for this game as well, so I'd be content with a vig-lynch target of LML.

Hey jackass! I said I could watch MYSELF once. Doofus. You have totally blipped my scumdar. (AKA, I could watch all others)

PS: Just wanted this, in thread, so everyone knows that this quote is attributed to Flay, the person who should be lynched D1. You heard it here first.

you're quite sure this was malicious, and not just a cock-up? because i'm seeing a little bit of pot/kettle here y'know.

plus massive over-reaction.

You're defense of Flay is noted, Seol.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Aren't you supposed to be an English teacher?

Also, is my defense also noted?

[Mr. Flay]

Speak English or Die, Lee.

I can't even figure out what you're upset

about

. So you really expect us to believe that Methodical Mafia includes a one-shot Watcher role? (I never said Cop, I'm not sure where you're coming from there). The only possible use for that role is to be a mass target N1, which, conveniently, you suggested RIGHT out of the gate. Forgive me if I'm a little bit suspicious...

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Psst, he's not a one-shot Watcher, he's a Watcher who, additionally, can target himself once.

[Mr. Flay]

Ah.

[Xdaamno]

Personally, I wasn't ready to cast much suspiscion on LmL after the flawed course of action presented near the start (I could imagine a town player doing this), but after statements like:

You're defense of Flay is noted, Seol.

, I'm not so sure. I didn't take it exactly that way, so this could be twisting words.

Speak English or Die, Lee.

Hm. I've not heard that one before

[Glork]

For the record, I am about 75% sure that LmL is protown.

Well, I'm about 40% sure he's scum.

I believe LmL's sorry plan to be a genuine mistake. Stoof said that he had balanced the game to safeguard against claims such as LmL's. I think that LmL's proposal was a result of his overenthusiasm and his inability to read the opening posts.

It's entirely meta, but it's a meta about which I feel very strongly.



I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

[ojpower]

confirmatory huzzah!

[Xdaamno]

I'm assuming you're proposing this because someone (the scum) might predict the lists (probably of the doctor)? I feel if the doctor thinks he's up for the WIFOM, he should go for it.

[Xdaamno]

EBWOP: Hmm, bad wording there. I meant if there was a way he could be sure it would be better than randomization...

Though how would randomization of the doctor help? He's a hit or miss guy. I assume I'm reading what you're saying wrong.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

Because you can do better? Because this way you're avoiding responsibility?

[LoudmouthLee]

Speak English or Die, Lee.

I can't even figure out what you're upset

about

. So you really expect us to believe that Methodical Mafia includes a one-shot Watcher role? (I never said Cop, I'm not sure where you're coming from there). The only possible use for that role is to be a mass target N1, which, conveniently, you suggested RIGHT out of the gate. Forgive me if I'm a little bit suspicious...

READ ENGLISH OR DIE, FLAY

[Glork]

I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

Because you can do better? Because this way you're avoiding responsibility?

But how would non-randomization be "doing better"? That's kindof my whole poit.

As to the "avoiding responsibility" thing, I fail to see how that's A) Relevant; or B) True to begin with. I've taken on a different kind of responsibility/accountability for my behavior simply by claiming ahead of time that I want to make a random list. I figure that I am more likely to be protown than scum, and if I have a role ability, then it could mess with the scums' most carefully laid plans -- especially if I have an important ability.



Xdaamno: I'm not sure why you've chosen to focus on the case of a

Doctor

randomizing choices. Anyway, to answer your question -- the Doctor's job would be to predict the scums' targets each night, and to try to protect against their kills. There's a pretty massive WIFOM game going on, so I fail to see how carefully choosing a list D0 would really be all that beneficial for a Doctor anyway. As far as other roles go, they fall into a similar situation, especially with roles that involve information. Of the most "typical" roles, the Roleblocker is probably the one that I think matters the least. I have no idea how I would go about choosing my list if I were a Roleblocker. I donno... it seems to me that all of the town's lists are going to be underinformed, whereas the scums will have at least a decent idea of how to lay out their gameplan. I'd like to try to throw a wrench into that potential gameplan, if possible.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

Because you can do better? Because this way you're avoiding responsibility?

But how would non-randomization be "doing better"? That's kindof my whole poit.

How could you not improve on random? Does it matter who you target(if you have such a role)? Yes. If you're a doc, it's gonna be better to protect someone like Seol, if you're a cop, you're better off investigating the more suspicious lot.

There is something to be said for making an offbeat list, ensuring the scum will have harder time predicting our actions. But if you want to make an offbeat "random" list, then make it intentionally so. A random list is not guaranteed to be offbeat at all.

Regardless of what purpose you have in mind, a random list is suboptimal.

As to the "avoiding responsibility" thing, I fail to see how that's A) Relevant; or B) True to begin with. I've taken on a different kind of responsibility/accountability for my behavior simply by claiming ahead of time that I want to make a random list. I figure that I am more likely to be protown than scum, and if I have a role ability, then it could mess with the scums' most carefully laid plans -- especially if I have an important ability.

Of course it's relevant. Wouldn't you agree that a scum claiming cop would have an easier time if he didn't have to justify his choices? This is just the same scenario on a smaller scale.

[Seol]

i agree with ces, and furthermore:

i may be misunderstanding but doesn't your method mean that should you need to claim early actions your upcoming actions will be derivable? given stoof's assurances that claims are of limited value (and also because i hate relying on assumptions if those assumptions can hurt us) i would be surprised if there are not allowances for the scum to react, i.e. act non-methodically.

so even if you are going to generate your list randomly, doing it in an open way is the worst possible way of doing it. what's wrong with random.orging and doing it privately? unless you're more concerned with pronouncing to the game at large that you're doing it randomly than avoiding the potential pitfalls of being second-guessed?