Mini 496 - Wild West Mafia. Mod Abandoned

[Thin_Man]

In all honesty, though, I think it was put there by a townie role. That's more a hunch than anything, though. Not only is there precedent, but roles like that tend to be wasted on scum. It's either a discussion-causer by a note-dropper or some kind of information role designed to spread

mis

information.

[ryan]

Thin_Man: The more I think about it the more I wonder if it is a discussion causer or something to that effect. Adam still hasn't voiced anything yet, let's let him talk and go from there.

[kabenon007]

the reactions that people give us when attacked are the only thing to go by. Anonymous writing, while helpful in generating discussion and therefore reactions, cannot be seen as infallible truth.

[Thin_Man]

I considered it quite obvious I was being sarcastic. Keep up.

[curiouskarmadog]

it could also be a lyncher/miller type of role too...all things remaining constant, I do not think we should act on the note Day 1 (other than discuss it).

[Thin_Man]

Lazy Vigilante: why should

you

go out and kill people at night? Meh, too much effort. Get the town to do it for you by telling them your target is scum.

[Adam The Amazing]

Alright, apparently a lot has gone down since I left for work. I'm here, I'll be here all night.

1) I already love Thin_Man. OMGUS

Vote: Thin_Man

.
2)As has already been outlined, there's nothing I can do against anonymous scribbling. I can say that I'm a townie, and that's exactly what I'm doing , but there's only one way to prove it, and I don't want that to happen.

CKD: How goes it? I believe we need a little info before we think we've got "an easy first day lynch" I mean it can't be that simple.............can it?

For starters, no, it's not. Even if I were mafia, D1 is a very good day for discussion. With no deaths especially, it's good to have a big conversation and some debates within that, and then we lynch the scummiest player. When their alignment is revealed, along with the alignment of whoever dies in the night, it allows people to do a reread to see relationships that were built throughout the day that would have otherwise been hidden. In psychology it's called "hindsight bias," and it's basically just that every question seems simple if you already know the answer. It then makes the next, similar question that much easier to answer. It's for this reason that I love replacing into games; I feel like I can sometimes bring in a fresh perspective, which jolts up the game and usually helps the town a great deal.

I'm curious how Adam will explain it. Theres nothing he can really say to vindicate himself from this accusation except something to the extent of "I'm not scum".

We just have to decide which role is most likely to use this ability.

QFT, good sir, QFT.

It'll probably be clear by endgame, and may decide the result in town's favour at that time. I don't think we should be using it as a guide as of yet.

I would agree with this as well. We could try quicklynching me to decide if the writing on the wall is infallible , but let's not.

[pdcakes]

After mulling it over and reading adams post i think we should just put the note aside for now. Us debating it isnt really gonna go anywhere...at least not until we have recieved another note. Have we heard from all the players yet?

[GodOfWine]

Hey everyone, sorry I'm late Was in Florida for a few days. Reading the thread now. Lot of action going on.

[GodOfWine]

Although normally I'm enthralled by the prosect of a fast Day 1 lynch, I don't know if lynching Adam would be all that informative, especially if we are trying to figure out whether or not the writing is infallible.

For something to be infallible, there would have to be more than one occasion of truth at least. Maybe if we can get a new "note" Day 2, there will be a possibility of lynching someone who is targeted by both notes and can, through one lynch, decide the infallibility of the notes, instead of being forced to use 2 lynches (at least!) if we decided to lynch Adam Day 1. '

Personally I think that, seeing that somebody has targeted him specifically, it might be useful to keep Adam alive purposefully and see if we can sort of follow him to scum, or at least to a power role.

Or, defying probability, Adam may have even wrote the note himself in an effort to make the equivocators like myself keep him around longer. In which case, it STILL might be beneficial to keep him around because otherwise we'd be without a note Day 2, and this note (and hopefuly those in the future) really makes the game interesting.

[Twomz]

*Adele
*Thin_Man
Aimee
*kabenon007
*SirWario
*Paradoxombie
*pdcakes
*curiouskarmadog
*GodOfWine
*Twomz
*Adam The Amazing
*ryan

Aimee is the only player who hasn't posted yet.

We have several possible avenue's to explore before this day is over... we can :shift:

-Lynch Adam - This is probably a bad move as it would sever any possible ties he'd have with other players and we really have no reason to trust the note yet.

-Lynch Adam's defenders/attackers - Again, since there was most like only one person who wrote the note, it's going to be 10 intuitive opinions on the matter, lynching on those grounds is probably not a good idea. (It could be more than one person if a group wrote the note, but then we're digging into WIFOM area's which is bad for Day 1)

-Lurker lynch - Always an acceptable option imho, since we only have one player who hasn't posted, it would be wise to wait a while before we bandwagoned. And post number isn't really the primary lurker tell, lack of information/person insight in posts is (parroting what other players are saying without contributing) so we need to wait a bit before we start declaring people lurkers anyway. Up side of lurker lynch is that even if they are town, they're not contributing, so they'll be useless in the endgame anyway.

-No Lynch - Allows us to skip awkward Day 1 randomness and stops the statistically higher mislynch problem (more town than scum, so probability of hitting town is higher in a random vote). Also we gather more info from night abilities and information is gathered from a night kill. Not to mention hopefully a second note. Downside to no lynch is that it gives the mafia a free kill, but imo, without any hard evidence or good tells to draw on, it's more like making them choose the kill instead of getting their kill + scummiest looking town lynch.

-Random lynch - Decent way to see where loyalties hide... has a low probability of actually hitting scum though.

-Everyone picks a top three scummiest players - Probably won't work on Day 1... may be worth a try, if only to point out lurkers and for possible hindsight in the endgame.



Those are the possible endings of the day from what I can see... >.>

[kabenon007]

I think that a no-lynch would be a bad idea. If we do a no-lynch then we go to Night 1 and the scum get a kill, or the possibility of a kill, without us having learned any information. And we would be right back where we started, except one townie less

[Twomz]

That's the same argument people always make against a no lynch... but if we lynch a town player then we'll be at about the same point information wise, except we'll be two town down. Even if we do hit mafia there isn't much chance that on Day 1 they would have strong ties to other mafiasos... so it might actually help the other mafiaso(s) hide better. And you have to think, if we don't gain any information, neither will the scum (and by association, their chances of hitting a power role on purpose goes down as well).

[pdcakes]

I don't think we should decide anything about how we are going to end the day until Aimee posts.

[kabenon007]

But, by making a lynch, we can go back and re-read and see, based on the lynched person's role, who was defending, who was attacking, and who was doing nothing. We can get information that way. But your right about losing two townies if we miss. That's why we need to talk this out and not quick lynch anyone.

[Aimee]

Yeehaw!

Random vote: Kabenon

. Boo.

Kaykays...

1. Note about Adam. The fact is, there are simply too many variables at this point to trust this note, especially on Day 1. I will be curious to note whether or not notes come up on future days. I'm also less inclined to go after Adam after his response - I would expect if he was scum to take a more offensive stance against his attackers, or panic. He seemed more calm and collected.
2. Twomz's stance on not lynching. I really don't agree with you, Twomz. No lynching takes away all the points of scum hunting. If we don't try to get scum, we won't get scum. And even if we lose two town, we will have information - votes, bandwagons and actions, all of which can be used later to find scum. In the long-term, it is incredibly beneficial to lynch on Day 1.

[kabenon007]

Oof, Aimee, after all this time apart, the first post you make is to vote for me? Ouch...

[Adam The Amazing]

2. Twomz's stance on not lynching. I really don't agree with you, Twomz. No lynching takes away all the points of scum hunting. If we don't try to get scum, we won't get scum. And even if we lose two town, we will have information - votes, bandwagons and actions, all of which can be used later to find scum. In the long-term, it is incredibly beneficial to lynch on Day 1.

How I have always seen it is this:

by lynching, we have a chance to hit scum.

The probability is about 1/4, if we do it completely randomly, but the thing is that we don't do it randomly. We do it based off of what we see, who we think has things they're hiding, faulty reasoning, etc. Basically, we lynch those who, through their posts, seem more likely to be mafia. Going back to what I underlined,

if we do not lynch, the mafia cannot die

(with the exception of vigilantes, us getting lucky w/ a SK, things of that ilk). We must lynch because there is no other way to win. Day one is as good of a time to start as any. If we wait until D3, the mafia will have killed two people, which makes it like a D2 if we lynch D1. We basically have more leeway, more "oops" room if we lynch earlier rather than later.

[ryan]

I'm not sure why a no lynch was even suggested.

[SirWario]

Yeah, no lynch is really never good. We just go into day 2 with one less townie. Power roles can use their night abilities, but they don't know who to use them on due to no suspicious activity.

[pdcakes]

since you guys are all talking about lynching on day 1 who would be your candidate to be lynched?

if i had to choose i would choose adam. just to see if the note we recieved was telling the truth or not. but thats just my opinion.

[GodOfWine]

Well pdcakes, lynching Adam, as I was trying to say in my last post, would NOT actually prove if the notes are true or not. To "prove" if the notes are true, we will probably need at least two instances of truth. The only way we can get two instances without committing mass town murder, is to make it to Day 2 and try and (assuming there is a second relevant note) try and lynch someone who is referenced or targeted by both notes.

Just for a reminder, we are sure that it is not the mod who wrote the note and that it is definitely a player? I would personally bet on a power role player writing it, but it also may very well be the mod's way of increasing Day 1 activity.

[Twomz]

I was covering all the options in my post. And for one reason or another people saw "no lynch" and starting saying how that one option was a horrible idea. I defended it, and now it's become the main topic for some reason.

As a last point on the subject... I've always seen no lynch as a valid option and I will continue to hold that view no matter how many times it gets me lynched (as it has in the past). It gives about the same amount of information (in a for/against voting pattern manner) as a lynch, but the end result is 1 death over a 24 hour period instead of 2 (neglecting SK kills of course). In smaller games No Lynches have been used merely to make the number of players odd instead of even so that lynches are harder for the mafia to control in the endgame.

An example... the closest a game can get is 1 mafia 3 town if the number of players is even... because if you mislynch with 4 players left, if 1 is mafia... that night the mafia will kill another townie, then the 3rd town is endgamed and the mafia wins. By making it an odd number of players, we can achieve a 1/2 split with a 33% chance of hitting the last mafiaso, instead of a 25% chance from the 1/3 split. Also, that's an additional days worth of information gathered to use against the mafia.

Again, I am not saying that we need to No Lynch... i'm saying it's a VALID OPTION.

@ Adam: I believe your logic to be flawed... at endgame there is LESS room for error. As the mafia/town ratio gets higher, it's true that the percentage chance of hitting scum goes up... BUT, in a 12 player game it can't get over 42.9%(3 mafia 4 town);40%(2 mafia, 3 town);33%(1 mafia, 2 town)... if you miss the town loses because of endgame. And of course these closest possible numbers are for an odd number of players, meaning a vig/SK kill, successful doc protect, or no lynch has shifted the numbers, the chances with an even number of players is even lower.

Also, the chance of hitting scum on day 1 with a random vote is 1/4 for Three mafiasos... if there's just 2 then it's 1/6.

@ SirWario: Imo, randomly targeting players with inspects or other abilities is better than randomly lynching.

[GodOfWine]

vote: pdcakes

In your last post, you made it sound like lynching Adam is our best if not only option at this point. First I totally disagree with, not because I am defending Adam's play (which I find kind of neutral right now), but because of the way you support lynching Adam even with all the logic provided against that option, and you don't actually make a case against this logic.

[ryan]

since you guys are all talking about lynching on day 1 who would be your candidate to be lynched?

if i had to choose i would choose adam. just to see if the note we recieved was telling the truth or not. but thats just my opinion.

Since we're only on page 2 we don't have any real need to lynch anyone at this point, I think some more discussion is necessary before any candidates start coming out