Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545

[shaft.ed]

Tyler that fifty-fifty statement doesn't sit well with me. I don't like people making false numbers.

Also there obviously were "ignorant" townies on the wagon as three of them turned up dead. I'm simply stating we might take advantage of the fact that an obviously pro-mafia quick-no-lynch went through, and only four people survived it. To me this means we may be able to lynch from this pool of players and have a greater likelihood of catching scum. I'd at least like to discuss the idea.

Also greatly looking for to mass-prods Crub.

[Lulubelle]

I'm not accusing you of sitting back and letting it get accepted. I'm accusing you of putting forth such an obviously broken plan from the start. Here's the Heading of our Open Game in the Queue:

bolding mine

Quack Mafia (Open 57) - 3 Mafia, 6 Doctors, 3 Quacks (

will kill non-Mafia

, but think they're Docs), DayStart (12/12) - Mod: Crub

It's pretty obvious that Quacks don't kill mafia. So I do think you could have put this forth in hopes that it would go through, and then you would be giddy to see it "quicklynched" into effect the next time you log on. However, I also see blame laying with some of the sheep that followed such a plan.

I have to say that I really, really dislike this reasoning. It was a very easy mistake to make, and one that I made myself at first while looking for breaking strategies pregame.

[shaft.ed]

That said, I have to agree about MoS's actions. He put forth that idea in the first place, merrily sat back as the town tripped over itself to agree with him, and then blamed everyone else when it turned out sour.

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

So then you do think that MoS sat back and deliberately waited for people to adopt his plan. Your vote suggest you must believe that's the way it played out.

[TylerJ]

I'm sorry Lullubelle but you gave a horribly scummy excuse for voting. So for the time being, I will

FoS: lulubelle

.


And this post definately made MoS look like scum for accusing the bandwagoners.

Who targetted those three? Please claim it now.

You guys are such idiots. Why in hell's blazing inferno did you vote no lynch after poking a gigantic hole in my breaking strategy? Quack docs being unable to kill mafia completely makes that strategy useless, and you idiots ended the day anyways. WTF!?

FoS: people that voted No lynch after that was pointed out

Shaft.ed good point. Considering that most people did die in the bandwagon, the odds are a little better, didn't think of it.
And please explain why that post did not sit right with you. My think about the fifty was more stating the fact that it could in fact be a nulltell, however with the above quote, perhaps not much so. That is also why I said

only time will tell

if he was an ignorant townie or a tricky scum.

[TylerJ]

I hate giving defenses for other people but I think it should be said. Do you think that If MoS was scum that he would post a possible game breaking strategy. Of course the plan had some flaws but it is something to consider. Also, If he was scum, do you think he would lynch someone in the bandwagon pool?

Both of these answeres arent a solid yes or no, but I was just thinking out loud.

[shaft.ed]

Tyler, the Fifty-fifty was just me not liking people putting numbers on things that aren't at all quantifiable. It makes it sound like he's just as likely to do one thing than another, which effectively erases the argument. And that statement coming from another player looks like a partner protecting a scumbuddy

There's no risk in him proposing a poor strategy. He can easily take it back saying "whoopsie didn't notice that" without much of a problem in the future, but if it works the payoff is big (as we see here town's down three with only a page of useful information generated).

As far as who he would lynch, that's a question you should address to him.

[Lulubelle]

So then you do think that MoS sat back and deliberately waited for people to adopt his plan. Your vote suggest you must believe that's the way it played out.

Which is the reason why I've reconsidered that since. However, there's only three people making much input right now. Scumhunting is almost impossible with such little to go on.

[Mastermind of Sin]

shaft.ed, if I was scum and knew the flaws of my plan, I don't see how I could have expected it to succeed. There are intelligent people in this game, and they DID spot the flaws. The fact is, people kept voting for the plan even after the flaws had been pointed out. That doesn't make a lot of sense, and I think scum would do that, to try and get to night quickly.

Oman, why did you agree to the plan if you knew there were flaws in it?

[Oman]

Because MoS, no plan is perfect and you're more experienced then me, thus I figured that you would've probably factored a no-kill into the equation.

As we've seen its not really "breaking" anyway, as it leaves numbers. All a no-kill does is fuxxes up the numbers.

[shaft.ed]

The no kill strategy only works if the circle-protect strategy is played out to its full conclusion. No kill is actually detrimental if the town aborts on the circle protect strategy N2. But no kill or not the game could realistically be over if the circle protect strategy were taken to it's logical conclusion on N2, depending on where scum are positioned in relation to quacks. So if the mafia thought it through they would likely realize that the circle protect strategy would have been aborted and put in a NK. However, this doesn't neccessarily have to be the case.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Because MoS, no plan is perfect and you're more experienced then me, thus I figured that you would've probably factored a no-kill into the equation.

As we've seen its not really "breaking" anyway, as it leaves numbers. All a no-kill does is fuxxes up the numbers.

But you also saw it get pointed out that mafia couldn't be killed by quacks, which was an obvious flaw. Yet you supported it?

[Oman]

I didn't think that was a problem at the time. I see now how if effects it.

[Crub]

Vote Count:

(No changes)

Mastermind of Sin (2):

shaft.ed, Lulubelle

Not Voting : Oman, Mastermind of Sin, TylerJ, Phate, Tarhalindur, fictiondepartment, LutenitPowwel

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Prods have gone out.

[TylerJ]

And that statement coming from another player looks like a partner protecting a scumbuddy

Hence me saying,

I hate giving defenses for other people but I think it should be said...

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded

More later, I'm somewhat short on time.

[shaft.ed]

I'm not accusing you of sitting back and letting it get accepted. I'm accusing you of putting forth such an obviously broken plan from the start. Here's the Heading of our Open Game in the Queue:

bolding mine

Quack Mafia (Open 57) - 3 Mafia, 6 Doctors, 3 Quacks (

will kill non-Mafia

, but think they're Docs), DayStart (12/12) - Mod: Crub

It's pretty obvious that Quacks don't kill mafia. So I do think you could have put this forth in hopes that it would go through, and then you would be giddy to see it "quicklynched" into effect the next time you log on. However, I also see blame laying with some of the sheep that followed such a plan.

I have to say that I really, really dislike this reasoning. It was a very easy mistake to make, and one that I made myself at first while looking for breaking strategies pregame.

It was actually pointed out by a number of people that Quacks don't kill townies. In fact you posted this information directly after MoS's submission of the plan:

Plus, with 3 of the 4 kills being randomly assigned, we've got a 3/11+3/10+3/9 chance of hitting at least 1 mafia during night 1, which is a 90% chance of eliminating scum on the first night. That's pretty good odds.

Am I missing something here?

3xQuack Doctors - Will kill any

town aligned player

they protect each night.

Next we have Oman confirming this two posts after yours with the Mod posting the info in the Thread:

Crubmod:

Will Quacks only kill Town players?

Correct - Crub

Then the next post by Tarlahindur:

This sounds right to me, but the correct strategy post-N1 needs to be altered in order to account for the fact that Quacks can't hit mafia.

So no I don't think it was an easy mistake to make. And what really amazes me is how many people hopped on board even after it was pointed out. Re-reading this section it's really difficult to see who isn't looking scummy.

[Crub]

kuribo replaces fictiondepartment immediately.

[Lulubelle]

It was actually pointed out by a number of people that Quacks don't kill townies.

I realize that. I just think it's

plausible

that MoS didn't see the easily-missed "will kill non-mafia" in the role description when he formulated the circle-protect strategy and that it's

plausible

that he didn't poke his head in on the thread again before it when to night. As I said before, I missed that at first myself.

And what really amazes me is how many people hopped on board even after it was pointed out. Re-reading this section it's really difficult to see who isn't looking scummy.

So then, what do you make of the fact that 4-5 of the 7 people that were on the no lynch bandwagon are confirmed townies?

[shaft.ed]

I realize that. I just think it's plausible that MoS didn't see the easily-missed "will kill non-mafia" in the role description when he formulated the circle-protect strategy and that it's plausible that he didn't poke his head in on the thread again before it when to night. As I said before, I missed that at first myself.

I'm not saying it isn't plausible that he missed it. I'm saying it's rather convenient that something advertised as a breaking strategy for town actually works out as an assured mafia win when one detail is overlooked. I think you may lend a lot of credence to over-looking this detail because you missed it yourself. MoS had been advertising his knowledge of a breaking strategy during sign-ups. He had a lot of time to double check his work.

So then, what do you make of the fact that 4-5 of the 7 people that were on the no lynch bandwagon are confirmed townies?

That's what's really bothering me. It seems like such an obvious thing to me. But when a guy like vollkan supports it and is now a confirmed townie it really makes me wonder if it wasn't easy to miss the flaw. It should be pointed out however that one of the confirmed innocents (Disciple Slayer) voted prior to the discussion of the Quacks not killing mafia. I guess the part of me that thinks scum would love to push this into action would say that it's a good thing we have so many confirmed innocents so that increases our chances of hitting scum from the voters. But the paranoid part of me says that the lynch went through in about 10 hours, the scum could have sat back and watched it go through not wanting to get their hands dirty.

[Lulubelle]

I guess the part of me that thinks scum would love to push this into action would say that it's a good thing we have so many confirmed innocents so that increases our chances of hitting scum from the voters. But the paranoid part of me says that the lynch went through in about 10 hours, the scum could have sat back and watched it go through not wanting to get their hands dirty.

I think you're jumping to conclusions here. With that many townies (smart townies, too) on the no lynch bandwagon, it should be clear that a pretty big part of the town saw the flawed circle protect strategy as a very positive move for town. I don't see how you can rule out the possibility that scum saw the strategy the same way during day one and would have tried to block it or stay away from it instead of piling on.

[shaft.ed]

I guess I'm just predisposed to seeing it as a broken strategy. No one tried to block it, or resisted piling on unless they were actively avoiding the thread.

Do you think that there's simply nothing to garner from the "bandwagon" then?

[Lulubelle]

Do you think that there's simply nothing to garner from the "bandwagon" then?

Personally, no. I know what role I have, so I see potentially as many as 6 of the 7 no lynch voters as pro-towns. The only one in serious question from where I stand is MoS, and I don't really see sufficent reason at this point to single him out as scum for merely being one of the no lynch voters if the rest are pro-town. But that's just me.

Unvote

[Oman]

Wait, aside for the dead docs there are no confirmed townies, okay?

Only scum that didn't kill the person they were meant to protect, and the rest of us.

[TylerJ]

which means we are back to pure scum hunting.

[shaft.ed]

Wait, aside for the dead docs there are no confirmed townies, okay?

Only scum that didn't kill the person they were meant to protect, and the rest of us.

I agree that the wording was poor, but what Lulu was pointing out is that at most 1 of the 3 "Quacks" can be mafia. Since two of them voted for the No Lynch, at least 4 of the 7 voters must be town aligned.

Also seeing as how fictiondepartment disappeared over the night phase. Should we be worried he didn't partake in the circle protect? I guess if he does turn up Quack later that would indicate that one of our three presumed Quack/mafia would have to be mafia?