Miller strategy?

[Thesp]

I think that Millers should claim their miller-ness on D1 right away,

ceteris parabis

. It allows the cop to investigate other people for useful results, and gets all things on the table, with no questions later. (I also think this strategy makes the miller a less interesting role from a design standpoint.)

Thoughts?

[Glork]

I am undecided, but I lean towards agreeing with you.

[Adel]

If forced to claim day 1 I would consider claiming doctor. It would be better to draw the NK than the lynch. Outing a real doctor would be the possible downside. Otherwise, I think claiming Miller in the twilight of night 1 would be the best time to claim miller.

[Yosarian2]

Meh. If someone claimed miller day 1 for no reason, shouldn't they be vigged night 1?

I mean, if this was an accepted stratagy, then I'd expect a large percentage of people who claimed miller early to be scum, wouldn't you?

[Glork]

Actually... while in theory I may argue that one should claim, I don't think I'd necessarily do it in practice.

[Tarhalindur]

I think that Millers should claim their miller-ness on D1 right away,

ceteris parabis

. It allows the cop to investigate other people for useful results, and gets all things on the table, with no questions later. (I also think this strategy makes the miller a less interesting role from a design standpoint.)

Thoughts?

Miller is one of a handful of roles that I believe should claim in their first post D1, the others being PGO, Bomb, and perhaps Jester should anyone ever use that horrible, horrible role in a game.

Note that I consider unwitting Millers a good role *because* of this conclusion about optimal Miller play.

[Thok]

I'm not sure about this suggestion in Theme games, where the theme suggests a likely miller candidate.

In addition, this really only makes sense if you believe you are going to be investigated before you are night killed under normal play.

[Yosarian2]

If someone claims miller day 1, and there's not a really strong, convincing reason to believe they're pro-town, then either vigging them or lynching is probably a good idea, because there is a very high chance that they are scum, and even if they're not they're significantly less useful then a vanillia townie would be.

However, if YOU are a miller, then you don't want to be vigged or lynched, because you know you're pro-town. So I don't think claiming miller day 1 is a good plan, unless for some reason you think there's a very high chance you'll be cop investigated in the near future.

If you don't claim miller day 1, you might get nightkilled by the scum, there's a high chance the cop might die without ever investigating you, or you might manage to do something that gives the town a reason to trust you if you ever do have to claim miller. The risk of claiming seems higher then the risk of not claiming, IMHO, unless you think you're about to get investigated.

[Elmo]

It's certainly a policy that makes sense; the future opportunities for a unclaimed miller to be helpful are quite slim.. maybe in an open setup endgame, or something.

I suppose it brings up the question of what ideal miller play is, which I haven't really thought about. Play like vanilla, but don't get investigated? Engineer your own NK by.. being awesome?

[armlx]

If someone claims miller day 1, and there's not a really strong, convincing reason to believe they're pro-town, then either vigging them or lynching is probably a good idea, because there is a very high chance that they are scum, and even if they're not they're significantly less useful then a vanillia townie would be.

However, if YOU are a miller, then you don't want to be vigged or lynched, because you know you're pro-town. So I don't think claiming miller day 1 is a good plan, unless for some reason you think there's a very high chance you'll be cop investigated in the near future.

If you don't claim miller day 1, you might get nightkilled by the scum, there's a high chance the cop might die without ever investigating you, or you might manage to do something that gives the town a reason to trust you if you ever do have to claim miller. The risk of claiming seems higher then the risk of not claiming, IMHO, unless you think you're about to get investigated.

Exactly my thoughts. More games will be lost by letting scum slide by on a miller claim than will be lost by cops targetting millers.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I've had the same thought about millers.

It makes sense as a strategy, and I agree that millers should almost always do it.

Mafia fakeclaiming miller doesn't do much, really only gives you a cop investigation without tying up the cop.

[Mr Stoofer]

*dusts it off*

[Nemesis]

Didn't Sir Tornado advocate this play once?

How big is the game? (In a big enough game there could be a bodyguard or other protection role which would make the fakeclaim doctor a

potentially

bad play.)

A miller is a lose/lose role anyway. If you get investigated then no one is going to buy you are a miller, if you claim day 1 people can just say it was WIFOM... No matter what you do, chances are you'll probably die... Usually from lynching.

If a miller claims day 1, they are asking to be lynched.

[Primate]

If someone claims miller day 1, and there's not a really strong, convincing reason to believe they're pro-town, then either vigging them or lynching is probably a good idea, because there is a very high chance that they are scum, and even if they're not they're significantly less useful then a vanillia townie would be.

However, if YOU are a miller, then you don't want to be vigged or lynched, because you know you're pro-town. So I don't think claiming miller day 1 is a good plan, unless for some reason you think there's a very high chance you'll be cop investigated in the near future.

If you don't claim miller day 1, you might get nightkilled by the scum, there's a high chance the cop might die without ever investigating you, or you might manage to do something that gives the town a reason to trust you if you ever do have to claim miller. The risk of claiming seems higher then the risk of not claiming, IMHO, unless you think you're about to get investigated.

I don't agree at all. Claiming miller will put massive amounts of attention on the player and make it so they are a much more plausible D1 lynch, and I don't get why scum would want that. I think it's one of those things that in theory scum will do it a lot, but in practice they very very rarely will. If you decide to not claim, then not only are you setting the town up for a mislynch if you do get investigated, you're increasing the pool of people the cop can investigate by one by one, making him less likely to find the scum that way. But mostly it's because to my mind, I reckon at least 80%, maybe more, of the people claiming miller day one will be town.

And btb, I do think it's the best play to claim millerhood d1, as the meta at this point means that being a miller might not be the only part of your role, so it really doesn't tell the scum anything either. The fact that it's the best play and should be done the majority of the time is also part of the reason that I am in favour of not all millers knowing they are millers.

[Nemesis]

But mostly it's because to my mind, I reckon at least 80%, maybe more, of the people claiming miller day one will be town.

Yet as soon as that figure is accepted, scum will claim miller a lot more.

I don't get why scum would want that.

Because they are getting psuedo investigation immunity, or because they are getting either a lot of trust, confirmed as town or think they can talk their way out of it which will be helpful later.

It also means they won't have to try and stop a bandwagon on them later, a miller claim usually isn't enough to do that later, so they'd need to fakeclaim something useful.

The only flaw is getting counterclaimed by a real miller.

Edit:

Obviously that's assuming you don't count getting: Lynched, Vigged, Blocked, Tracked, Watched, Culted or Killed as flaws.

[Primate]

It's not psuedo investigation immunity, it's a free guilty on them. If anything it's exactly the opposite. Not being investigated is useless when people will assume the total worst case scenario regarding that.

And I think you're wrong about it becoming more common. It'll stay about the same, maybe slip a little, but definitely not a lot more. There is no way at all that claiming miller day 1 is a good play for scum, and it will get them nothing but misery as that player gets raked over the coals much harder than any other player in the game day 1. Even during later days, people will consider lynching him solely because he is a miller, despite other people being scummier. Don't kid yourself that claiming miller day 1 is anything other than a risky gambit for a scum.

[Nemesis]

It's not psuedo investigation immunity, it's a free guilty on them. If anything it's exactly the opposite. Not being investigated is useless when people will assume the total worst case scenario regarding that.

I originally thought that... But then I weighed up WIFOM and the fact it cheapens a guilty result on them. It is nowhere near as bad as a free guilty. People who claim miller on page 1 arn't lynched page 2. I doubt they'd be allowed to live until endgame, but I think it is a temp free pass.

Usually a guilty result gets an instant quicklynch for a reaction, a miller claim from the first post doesn't always get such a reaction.

And I think you're wrong about it becoming more common. It'll stay about the same, maybe slip a little, but definitely not a lot more. There is no way at all that claiming miller day 1 is a good play for scum, and it will get them nothing but misery as that player gets raked over the coals much harder than any other player in the game day 1. Even during later days, people will consider lynching him solely because he is a miller, despite other people being scummier. Don't kid yourself that claiming miller day 1 is anything other than a risky gambit for a scum.

Oh I agree, at the moment Miller is almost suicide for scum... But purely because we believe scum could claim Miller. If we all agreed that scum would never do it, then they'd all do it because it would be the safest claim ever... (Unless scum decided all Millers needed to be killed.) If scum had such a strong claim, then they'd claim it. Scum claim all kinds of roles that actually need backing up. (Whether it is guessing who X targetted, faking investigations, etc.) But if everyone gives Millers confirmed status, then scum would claim Miller all the time. It'd still be fairly risky, but it wouldn't be a bad risk to take. At the moment, I'd take an 80% chance of being seen as town just because I claimed miller. That's a huge percentage, if everyone agreed that I could have an 80% chance of surviving as miller I'd rip their arms off. Hell, I'd consider doing it as a vanilla.

Claiming Miller is almost suicide for anyone, so I'd probably suspect the "Miller" to be a Jester. Out of just Miller and scum, I'd guess at 66% chance of the Miller being real in a game where 1/4 of people are town. (Although I would probably advocate his lynch if I was town and hadn't seen any scum for a while.)

[Thesp]

I brought this up because I was in a scumchat game yesterday where I was a miller and employed this strategy, to mixed success.

Claiming miller will put massive amounts of attention on the player and make it so they are a much more plausible D1 lynch, and I don't get why scum would want that. I think it's one of those things that in theory scum will do it a lot, but in practice they very very rarely will. If you decide to not claim, then not only are you setting the town up for a mislynch if you do get investigated, you're increasing the pool of people the cop can investigate by one by one, making him less likely to find the scum that way.

I agree entirely with this.

If someone claims miller day 1, and there's not a really strong, convincing reason to believe they're pro-town, then either vigging them or lynching is probably a good idea, because there is a very high chance that they are scum, and even if they're not they're significantly less useful then a vanillia townie would be.

However, if YOU are a miller, then you don't want to be vigged or lynched, because you know you're pro-town. So I don't think claiming miller day 1 is a good plan, unless for some reason you think there's a very high chance you'll be cop investigated in the near future.

If you don't claim miller day 1, you might get nightkilled by the scum, there's a high chance the cop might die without ever investigating you, or you might manage to do something that gives the town a reason to trust you if you ever do have to claim miller. The risk of claiming seems higher then the risk of not claiming, IMHO, unless you think you're about to get investigated.

Exactly my thoughts. More games will be lost by letting scum slide by on a miller claim than will be lost by cops targetting millers.

I'm curious if there's

ever

been a game where someone claimed miller and lived until the endgame as scum. On the flipside, if a cop gets a guilty on someone and has no reason to doubt his sanity, then anyone who claims miller as a results of an announced guilty on themselves should be policy-lynched. It creates more problems for the town and they lose an info-lynch, as the sensible play is to lynch away. However, gauging people's reactions to a D1 miller claim is far, far more useful.

I also think that if the perceived appropriate fix to this strategy is to make the miller unaware of his miller-ness, then the

actual

correct approach is to

not include the miller in games

.

Thoughts?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I agree with that line of thought completely,

However,

IMO the

actual

correct approach is to

not include the cop in games

Discuss

[Primate]

No, it's just as bad as a free guilty, because that's what it actually is, really. What you're referring to are contextual things, behavioral things that make the claimer less likely to be scum.

And I disagree with the 'if its a good town claim, scum will claim it' reasoning because it doesn't factor in how difficult the claim is too pull off. Otherwise we'd have every scum claiming cop and doc all over the place. Millers a little easier than those two, but it doesn't make your life easier, like those two, it means you're going to be attacked a lot with a small respite in the mid game, and more relevantly, it means you're going to have to claim your role and flavour first thing in the game, which scum absolutely despise doing. Look how many scum subclaim their roles in their first post vs. how many townies do it, and then add in the fact that the scum claiming miller in the first post don't even get the option of hoping someone missed their claim and changing it later.

I do get what you're saying, but you're speaking in absolutes too much. You're saying 'if no-one lynched millers' vs 'if we lynched them all the time' and thats a simplistic view of the situation. What we will get is the majority of town millers claiming it, with the occasional dumb scum or scum with massive balls. What we then have to do, because we're not going to catch them via cop investigation, is put them under more pressure than a normal member of the town and see if they break.

I also think that if the perceived appropriate fix to this strategy is to make the miller unaware of his miller-ness, then the actual correct approach is to not include the miller in games.

Millers who don't know they are millers need to be included in games occasionally just to give scum that out. It's by far the best out for a scum in that situation, and removing it from consideration in your games is a kick in the balls to any scum who gets themselves investigated as guilty. Also, it's a mechanic that punishes lazy towns that rely overmuch on cop investigations and rewards towns that play well and rely on their own reads on people. Honestly I don't see anything really wrong with millers who don't know that they are millers, but I know lots of people feel differently.

I'm curious if there's ever been a game where someone claimed miller and lived until the endgame as scum.

I vaguely recall Arimnaes claiming miller day one in Court Mafia on MTGS then living to the endgame as mafia member, but I can name at least half a dozen townies who've claimed miller d1, so it balances.

EDIT: I agree with pooky in a sense. Games without millers shouldn't include cops, really. If a cop can rely 100% on his both his guilties and his innocents, it just encourages laziness in the player.

[Adel]

Engineer your own NK by.. being awesome?

qft.
all millers and vanilla townies should attept to draw the NK by being awesome.

[Seol]

I agree with that line of thought completely,

However,

IMO the

actual

correct approach is to

not include the cop in games

Discuss

This needs to be done more frequently. Not eliminate the concept of cop

completely

, but currently the assumption a cop is in the game is far too reliable.

[Adel]

I also think that if the perceived appropriate fix to this strategy is to make the miller unaware of his miller-ness, then the

actual

correct approach is to

not include the miller in games

.

Thoughts?

I think the best reason to include a miller is to underpower the town for balance considerations. It should either result in a lynch and/or a wasted investigation. I've seen several mini-normals where the cop+doc combo is "balanced" by a godfather, i think it would be better to balance the combo with a miller or possibly a miller and a godfather.

[Primate]

I agree with that line of thought completely,

However,

IMO the

actual

correct approach is to

not include the cop in games

Discuss

This needs to be done more frequently. Not eliminate the concept of cop

completely

, but currently the assumption a cop is in the game is far too reliable.

+Doc+Vig

Also not just replacing the Cop with a tracker, Doc with a bodyguard, etc. Eliminate part of the investigative/protective/killing triangle.

[Adel]

or we can just start putting in two back-up cops in instead of a cop. Good times.