This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
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Post #0 (ISO ) » Sat May 05, 2018 7:46 pm
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by northsidegal » Sat May 05, 2018 7:46 pm
Publishing Cop's results are made public at the start of the day should the cop survive the night.
Main issue I see is with swinginess. If it's too townsided, could also change the cop to be loyal.
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Post #1 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 12:17 am
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by callforjudgement » Sun May 06, 2018 12:17 am
In addition to the swing issue, there's also the issue that the game's likely to really drag out if town power roles die early (and yet the game's balanced around the fact that that's fairly likely to happen). Perhaps the general idea needs to work in a smaller setup.
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Post #2 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 11:13 am
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by BBmolla » Sun May 06, 2018 11:13 am
Make the vig one shot and make it 8 players, 2 scum
Or as is but 11 players 3 scum
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Post #3 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 11:46 am
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by northsidegal » Sun May 06, 2018 11:46 am
Is there any way of making the larger setup work? Remove the mafia watcher, maybe? A strategy was pointed out to me where any scum run up will simply claim Vig and then watch that person as the vig shoots them
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Post #4 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 12:37 pm
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by Mathdino » Sun May 06, 2018 12:37 pm
Mafia Watcher can't work in a setup with 2 PRs. I'd even hesitate to include a rolecop, tbh.
Wrote a program for this setup without a mafia watcher.
Assumptions:
- Cop investigates randomly among non-clears
- Vig shoots randomly every night among non-clears
- Mandatory lynches/kills
- Mafia shoots confirmed townies whenever possible
- Mafia claims VT when run up (BAD ASSUMPTION)
The town EV came out to be 44%.
This is going to be much worse considering that scum is highly likely to claim cop or vig when run up in order to buy them an extra phase or two.
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Post #5 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 12:54 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 12:54 pm
Why would mafia shoot confirmed townies they are known not cop
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post #6 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 12:55 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 12:55 pm
Also you can't cc cop
Cop claims should have to target a specific person, real cop just has to not target that person and guilty next day.
Vig gets to just shoot CC's
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post #7 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 12:57 pm
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by northsidegal » Sun May 06, 2018 12:57 pm
In post 6 , RadiantCowbells wrote: Cop claims should have to target a specific person, real cop just has to not target that person and guilty next day.
these types of strategies are why i want to run this game to see how it plays out.
any cop claims should be instantly sorted by the NK anyways given that scum can't really afford to leave the cop alive?
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Post #8 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 12:59 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 12:59 pm
44% is good enough to run in my opinion
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post #9 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:00 pm
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by Mathdino » Sun May 06, 2018 1:00 pm
If mafia shoots randoms that aren't confirmed, the town EV goes up to 55%. That's why I tried both.
Plus there's the argument that if scum never shot confirmeds, it becomes optimal for cop to just confirm themselves so they don't get shot.
And you can cc cop just because it'll buy you a phase. This will drop town EV significantly considering it'll take like 2 days to get any scum lynch.
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Post #10 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:05 pm
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by northsidegal » Sun May 06, 2018 1:05 pm
Cop can't self-target.
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Post #11 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:07 pm
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by Mathdino » Sun May 06, 2018 1:07 pm
Got it.
If mafia tries to kill only people who aren't confirmed town (to try to find the cop), town EV jumps up to 60%. Killing PR claims --> ICs --> randoms is always better.
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Post #12 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:34 pm
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by northsidegal » Sun May 06, 2018 1:34 pm
also going off the assumption that the cop's results only get published if the cop survives the night
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Post #13 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:35 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 1:35 pm
Stalling one day is super low +equity
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post #14 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:35 pm
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by Mathdino » Sun May 06, 2018 1:35 pm
That was accounted for, yeah.
Edit: It's low but it will demonstrably alter EV.
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Post #15 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:42 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 1:42 pm
I mean it's scumsided don't get me wrong.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post #16 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:43 pm
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by northsidegal » Sun May 06, 2018 1:43 pm
what if the cop started with a head start i.e. the game begins with one person confirmed as innocent?
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Post #17 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:45 pm
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by Mathdino » Sun May 06, 2018 1:45 pm
One VT or one random? If vig starts confirmed innocent it's pretty bad.
I suspect the main reason that killing ICs is so +EV for scum is because you run a high likelihood of NKing the vig. I haven't accounted for a potential strategy of not killing ICs once the vig is dead.
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Post #18 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:46 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 1:46 pm
What if NSG is guaranteed to be in the game and town?
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post #19 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:48 pm
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by northsidegal » Sun May 06, 2018 1:48 pm
In post 17 , Mathdino wrote: One VT or one random? If vig starts confirmed innocent it's pretty bad.
I suspect the main reason that killing ICs is so +EV for scum is because you run a high likelihood of NKing the vig. I haven't accounted for a potential strategy of not killing ICs once the vig is dead.
probably just random? i'm not sure how much of an effect it would actually have.
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Post #20 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:52 pm
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by Mathdino » Sun May 06, 2018 1:52 pm
Turning one VT in the game into an IC (or having NSG guaranteed to be in the game and is a VT) causes an EV of 41%...
There's something about optimal strategy that I'm leaving out.
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Post #21 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:52 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 1:52 pm
Interesting idea: what if vig check came privately to avoid outing the vig?
Wait I'm going to double check your numbers when I get home, I have a program that does this in general cases
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post #22 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 1:54 pm
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by Mathdino » Sun May 06, 2018 1:54 pm
Oh my bad I forgot to actually add the ICs into the program.
Cop head start brings town EV up to 48%.
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Post #23 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 2:04 pm
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by northsidegal » Sun May 06, 2018 2:04 pm
In post 21 , RadiantCowbells wrote: Interesting idea: what if vig check came privately to avoid outing the vig?
Wait I'm going to double check your numbers when I get home, I have a program that does this in general cases
i'm not sure i get this. are you saying if the vig gets investigated then it isn't made public?
In post 22 , Mathdino wrote: Oh my bad I forgot to actually add the ICs into the program.
Cop head start brings town EV up to 48%.
i like the way that sounds.
Investigative Reporting
Publishing Cop's results are made public at the start of the day should the cop survive the night. A random innocent on a town-aligned player is published at the start of Day 1.
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Post #24 (ISO ) » Sun May 06, 2018 2:11 pm
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by RadiantCowbells » Sun May 06, 2018 2:11 pm
Yes NSG
It should be explicitly vt though
Run the numbers if vig inno is private
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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