Elemental Mafia- Game Over!

[Muerrto]

Really? I mean, day 1 we lynched a bunch of people and they were ALL town except the SK and survivor.

Let's do math.

25 people. SK kills 1 night 0 and cults recruit 2(I'd say 2 out of 4 recruit attempts are normal, cult had some bad luck this game)

So now it's 1 SK, 6 cult, and 17 town. Town kills 3 people and we'll give them a HUGE bump in odds and say they killed 1 cult and 2 town(with the current numbers they have a much higher chance of hitting 3 town).

Night 1 we've got 1 SK, 5 cult, and 15 town. SK kills 1, cult recruit 2 again(again good odds with these numbers)

Day 2 we've got 1 SK, 7 cult?? , and 13 town. This just gets worse as we go along.

3 lynches per day is definitely not enough.

Day 3 the cults already almost outnumber the town. The cults simply had bad luck this game with their choices. Some were bad, some were unlucky.

[PokerFace]

hmm... I see your point I guess there is more to it then I thought. Regardless I think it should be a set number each day as apposed to allowing the number of lynches to change each day. Deciding a few things on the fly like pooky's mod killing and the lynch number effected the game more then it should have I believe. BM should have just let you guys lynch pooky over the mod killing and any post deleting considering how the game was progessing. Had pooky managed to derail that wagon on him that would have been impressive.

[Muerrto]

No chance after claiming 6 elements. But yeah, the lynches per day should be set and decrease. The increment was fine, the seeming randomness was a bit concerning.

[Erg0]

I should give some proper comments, I guess.

I was kind of a passenger for a fair bit of this game, so I can't take too much credit for the win (though I was glad that I eventually swung it the right way on the last lynch). I think that the fast lynch policy was the town's best option, but I think we may have taken it a little too far at times, as there were at least a couple of people that shouldn't have been run up so quickly (these were the ones I argued against, can't even remember who they were now). Of course, in this sort of game the scum can always make a fakeclaim to live through the first day, so the lack of success at the start wasn't all that surprising.

We got kind of lucky on the lack of recruiting, though - one of the cults grabbing me and armlx could have made a big difference to the numbers at the end. armlx was an awesome partner, as he kept himself well and truly clear of suspicion for the whole game. I kind of knew I shouldn't have gone against the majority on the DGB/Xtoxm thing in such a lynch-happy game (and I probably made it worse by challenging Muerrto), but I can't help being contrary sometimes.

This was good fun as a less serious game, and I wouldn't mind having another go at something similar if my free time permits. The first week of these big games can be a bit of a time sink...

[lord_hur]

Really? I mean, day 1 we lynched a bunch of people and they were ALL town except the SK and survivor.

Let's do math.

25 people. SK kills 1 night 0 and cults recruit 2(I'd say 2 out of 4 recruit attempts are normal, cult had some bad luck this game)

So now it's 1 SK, 6 cult, and 17 town. Town kills 3 people and we'll give them a HUGE bump in odds and say they killed 1 cult and 2 town(with the current numbers they have a much higher chance of hitting 3 town).

Night 1 we've got 1 SK, 5 cult, and 15 town. SK kills 1, cult recruit 2 again(again good odds with these numbers)

Day 2 we've got 1 SK, 7 cult?? , and 13 town. This just gets worse as we go along.

3 lynches per day is definitely not enough.

Day 3 the cults already almost outnumber the town. The cults simply had bad luck this game with their choices. Some were bad, some were unlucky.

Yes but don't forget cults are not playing together. So it's rather 1-2-2-2-1-13 on day 2. I agree that with 1 big cult, it would be grossly overpowering, but with 4 small ones...

With 3 lynches per day, I would have thought twice about siding with town.

[lord_hur]

We got kind of lucky on the lack of recruiting, though - one of the cults grabbing me and armlx could have made a big difference to the numbers at the end. armlx was an awesome partner, as he kept himself well and truly clear of suspicion for the whole game. I kind of knew I shouldn't have gone against the majority on the DGB/Xtoxm thing in such a lynch-happy game (and I probably made it worse by challenging Muerrto), but I can't help being contrary sometimes.

I wonder why no one targetted you or armlx... you two would seriously have been my first choices, have I been cult leader.

[Xtoxm]

xtoxm, why not recruit N0? Recruit > kill by far.

I don't think so.

And I didn't want to recruit N0 when I figured the chance of sucess was probably <50%, I wanted to wait and try and get reads on who I thought was recruitable. And chance of sucessful kill is, I think (thought) >90%.

[ooba]

All i wanted to do was to survive Day 1 and get recruited ..