Newbie 2104 | Wikipedia Articles | Game Over!

[catboi]

the way catboi has handled day 2 and 3 are just so scummy to me

to be specific here's what I latched on to:
1. faust argues catboi is scum in 543
2. faust and catboi go back and forth over day 2
3. faust is limmed and flips town, kiri is NKed
4. day 3 starts, catboi mentions they reread and they lay out their thoughts, coming to the conclusion that my slot is the likeliest scum

the main issue I have with this is that it feels to me like catboi comes in at the start of day 3 trying to control the conversation, which is exactly what they need to do at this point in order to win as scum
i think after 543 scum!catboi has to push faust, as catboi somewhat mentions in 745 it generally looks somewhat scummy to defend town with bad reasoning and imo it looks even worse in this case when there are multiple obvious townies pushing for faust's lim

while 718 may be true I think it regardless is a good excuse for scum!catboi to change their reads from d2 and hard push a slot today
the next few posts are the important ones, kiri had imo been controlling a lot of the conversation in d2 and with her gone, catboi is able to come in and focus the topic of today on my slot rather than necessarily on what happened yesterday, which I think is beneficial to scum!catboi; suspicion, i think, naturally falls on catboi for their conduct in d2 and by making these posts so quickly after d3 scum!catboi is able to get ahead of some of that

again i still have some major qualms about reading catboi's slot as scum but this is my thought process, which is why i'm currently conflicted on the slot

I think what you've laid out here is a plausible explanation for why my play

could

make sense as scum but the thinking is flawed. The problem is it comes

only

looking at whether my play makes sense as being from scum and not whether it can come from town, and judge which is more likely. I think if you try to approach games from the angle of "whose play makes sense as scum" you're going to end up with a lot of false positives. It's very easy to convince yourself someone's play

could

make sense as scum - nothing is ever really truly certain that way in games, and everything can seem possible, even the most far-out scenario. And looking at things from that perspective means more often than not you'll convince yourself of an incorrect case.

So wht I have to ask is, why does my opening today look like an attempt to "control the narrative" as scum, rather than being analysis from a town POV?

[catboi]

I wish that, like, one of WS or BBT would actually town it up because then I'd feel like the game was locked but the actual play this day has only made me less confident on both of them

please give me something to work with here because this game really should be a lock

[Tapiocaphobe]

the way catboi has handled day 2 and 3 are just so scummy to me

to be specific here's what I latched on to:
1. faust argues catboi is scum in 543
2. faust and catboi go back and forth over day 2
3. faust is limmed and flips town, kiri is NKed
4. day 3 starts, catboi mentions they reread and they lay out their thoughts, coming to the conclusion that my slot is the likeliest scum

the main issue I have with this is that it feels to me like catboi comes in at the start of day 3 trying to control the conversation, which is exactly what they need to do at this point in order to win as scum
i think after 543 scum!catboi has to push faust, as catboi somewhat mentions in 745 it generally looks somewhat scummy to defend town with bad reasoning and imo it looks even worse in this case when there are multiple obvious townies pushing for faust's lim

while 718 may be true I think it regardless is a good excuse for scum!catboi to change their reads from d2 and hard push a slot today
the next few posts are the important ones, kiri had imo been controlling a lot of the conversation in d2 and with her gone, catboi is able to come in and focus the topic of today on my slot rather than necessarily on what happened yesterday, which I think is beneficial to scum!catboi; suspicion, i think, naturally falls on catboi for their conduct in d2 and by making these posts so quickly after d3 scum!catboi is able to get ahead of some of that

again i still have some major qualms about reading catboi's slot as scum but this is my thought process, which is why i'm currently conflicted on the slot

I think what you've laid out here is a plausible explanation for why my play

could

make sense as scum but the thinking is flawed. The problem is it comes

only

looking at whether my play makes sense as being from scum and not whether it can come from town, and judge which is more likely. I think if you try to approach games from the angle of "whose play makes sense as scum" you're going to end up with a lot of false positives. It's very easy to convince yourself someone's play

could

make sense as scum - nothing is ever really truly certain that way in games, and everything can seem possible, even the most far-out scenario. And looking at things from that perspective means more often than not you'll convince yourself of an incorrect case.

So wht I have to ask is, why does my opening today look like an attempt to "control the narrative" as scum, rather than being analysis from a town POV?

you know I thought about this post and I hate to admit it but I think you're right
i need to sleep on this game, i'll take another look tomorrow

[Wayward Son]

I haven't read a word. My son's car got stolen while were at the concert. Been a BAD night. We confirmed with the police, it was stolen. With more than $1000 in well used tools for his trade.

I may be on later, but Daniel (my oldest, wants a little emphathy) and I really don't blame him.

This is all fluff, but unfortunately true.

[Dannflor]

VC 3.2

Game Theory

"Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents.[1] It has applications in all fields of social science, as well as in logic, systems science and computer science. Originally, it addressed two-person zero-sum games, in which each participant's gains or losses are exactly balanced by those of other participants. In the 21st century, game theory applies to a wide range of behavioral relations; it is now an umbrella term for the science of logical decision making in humans, animals, as well as computers."

votes

[1] Tapiocaphobe

:

catboi

[1] BlueBloodedToffee

:

Wayward Son

[3] Not Voting

:

BlueBloodedToffee, Maestro, Tapiocaphobe

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

The Day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2022-11-15 20:59:55)

Mod Notes

: dual mod iso can be found

here

!

[Wayward Son]

I think what you've laid out here is a plausible explanation for why my play could make sense as scum but the thinking is flawed. The problem is it comes only looking at whether my play makes sense as being from scum and not whether it can come from town, and judge which is more likely. I think if you try to approach games from the angle of "whose play makes sense as scum" you're going to end up with a lot of false positives. It's very easy to convince yourself someone's play could make sense as scum - nothing is ever really truly certain that way in games, and everything can seem possible, even the most far-out scenario. And looking at things from that perspective means more often than not you'll convince yourself of an incorrect case.

So wht I have to ask is, why does my opening today look like an attempt to "control the narrative" as scum, rather than being analysis from a town POV?

To be honest (and I realize that term alone is a scum tell in some Towns) about the only thing even remotely making me doubt my Town read on you is the way you've been trying to make me come up with a reason for Town reading you. I've seen this before in play and I'm pretty sure I've said similar myself (as scum).

I still think you're Town, and after rereading Tapiocaphobe's posts (the new girl ), I don't see me switching votes anywhere in the near future.

I get the feeling Maestro knows BBT.
@ Maestro Do you think BBT is playing his Town game?

[Wayward Son]

I would probably agree with this if Sterling hadn't tagged onto the end that he personally still thinks Maestro is scummier. For all we know, had Fennec come under real pressure then Sterling could have pivoted to Maestro using this reasoning.

Can I have "speculation" for $100?

I think everyone needs to look our two slots over and decide who to vote. I've been limmed and I've also mis-limmed others enough times to not feel

too

bad if I go wrong.

What I'm saying is we should be voting BBT. Also, the quoted post makes me feel like BBT knows Maestro is Town.

[Tapiocaphobe]

@WS what made you lean towards CJ as possible scum yesterday?

also sorry to hear that happened

[Wayward Son]

@ Tapiocaphobe It started in 85, though 84 is kinda strange.

It's weird but I'm not really seeing anything yet that catches my attention, except for faustiv who I have no idea how to sort.

Gut feeling is I should probably look into faustiv more but I don't really feel like doing that yet.

I'm not sure what to do with Maestro. I'm getting town vibes but I'm not confident about it for some reason.

I can go on, but it seems most of his posts are trying to stir up doubt and not about trying to solve anything. I wanted to find what had made me change my mind, but it's really late. I still have their ISO open so I'll look (and hopefully find) why I took them out of my list of scumspects, tomorrow.

I haven't got the feeling that BBT is really trying to solve the game either.

[Maestro]

I actually can’t remember if BBT and I have played in a game together or not? I “recognize” a lot of players who were around and in games I read or games with mutuals back when I was originally active on-site (2013-2018 or so?), and I think BBT belongs to that large group

I’m inclined to agree not much substance coming from them, nothing to make them anything but a good elim

Need to read more closely what tapioca posted, will prob have time tonight

[Maestro]

Also lmao @ BBT’s signature being an agreement w my opening suspicion of catboi+response to your request that I meta-analyse them

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I wish that, like, one of WS or BBT would actually town it up because then I'd feel like the game was locked but the actual play this day has only made me less confident on both of them

please give me something to work with here because this game really should be a lock

I have.

I've literally told you who is scum

[Tapiocaphobe]

@BBT do you have any other reasons to suspect WS's slot beyond 130?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Can you pick out a single Fennec post that looks town?

I admit, I haven't looked at WS in any proper detail but it really doesn't feel like I need to.

[Tapiocaphobe]

i can't find a compelling reason in his iso to mark him as scum rather than confused townie
he had bad reads d1 but so did faust

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Have you read my posts?

[Tapiocaphobe]

i have

[BlueBloodedToffee]

That's puzzling then

[Tapiocaphobe]

like I can see the point you're making I just don't really agree strongly enough to scumread fennec's posts

[Tapiocaphobe]

Can you pick out a single Fennec post that looks town?

I admit, I haven't looked at WS in any proper detail

but it really doesn't feel like I need to.

why not?

[Tapiocaphobe]

i think i've found scum

i can feel it deep within my bones

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee E-1 I believe

reread catboi's D1 earlier and I think their interactions with sterling are far more likely to come from a town POV, particularly 99

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Umm, what are you doing?

[Tapiocaphobe]

voting you

[catboi]

I haven't read a word. My son's car got stolen while were at the concert. Been a BAD night. We confirmed with the police, it was stolen. With more than $1000 in well used tools for his trade.

I may be on later, but Daniel (my oldest, wants a little emphathy) and I really don't blame him.

This is all fluff, but unfortunately true.

wow I'm sorry man that's awful, you have my sympathies

[catboi]

I think what you've laid out here is a plausible explanation for why my play could make sense as scum but the thinking is flawed. The problem is it comes only looking at whether my play makes sense as being from scum and not whether it can come from town, and judge which is more likely. I think if you try to approach games from the angle of "whose play makes sense as scum" you're going to end up with a lot of false positives. It's very easy to convince yourself someone's play could make sense as scum - nothing is ever really truly certain that way in games, and everything can seem possible, even the most far-out scenario. And looking at things from that perspective means more often than not you'll convince yourself of an incorrect case.

So wht I have to ask is, why does my opening today look like an attempt to "control the narrative" as scum, rather than being analysis from a town POV?

To be honest (and I realize that term alone is a scum tell in some Towns) about the only thing even remotely making me doubt my Town read on you is the way you've been trying to make me come up with a reason for Town reading you. I've seen this before in play and I'm pretty sure I've said similar myself (as scum).

I still think you're Town, and after rereading Tapiocaphobe's posts (the new girl ), I don't see me switching votes anywhere in the near future.

I get the feeling Maestro knows BBT.
@ Maestro Do you think BBT is playing his Town game?

That post wasn't even addressed to you, but -

I'm not trying to make you come up with a reason for town reading me, I'm trying to

understand your thought process

. This is one of the most fundamental aspects of scumhunting. Anyone can give any sort of read, faking

reads

isn't particularly hard to do. What is hard is faking

reasoning

. And so what I like to do in games is to question people and try to get them to explain their reads. Obviously I know I'm town, that's not interesting to me. But I want to see if your explanation for the read makes sense or if it sounds like something you just made up.

The reason I get a little ~concerned~ is you seemed to be angling toward the possibility of voting me yesterday when there was pressure on me and suddenly today when I'm not a potential elim you go "whoop he's town never mind" and that sets off a little flag for me because I was honestly expecting more followthrough from you. The fact that it didn't happen leads me to go - wait, was he suspecting me for real? Or was that a convenient read when I was a potential wagon, and now I'm not so he gave it up? I get paranoid about stuff like that.