Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)
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Aya Shameimaru Goon
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Essentially I am confirmed town and deciding who dies today, and then people figure it out in F3.
You gotta convince me you are town today and find 2 scum in Yuuka Kagerou Kaguya.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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Okay, that clarifies things much more. Why are you confirmed town?In post 6225, Aya Shameimaru wrote: Essentially I am confirmed town and deciding who dies today, and then people figure it out in F3.
You gotta convince me you are town today and find 2 scum in Yuuka Kagerou Kaguya.-
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Aya Shameimaru Goon
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I am confirmed to have taken the scum kill with a redirector and shot it at a scum deep wolf in Eternity Larva. It is the only scum we have killed this game.In post 6226, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
Okay, that clarifies things much more. Why are you confirmed town?In post 6225, Aya Shameimaru wrote: Essentially I am confirmed town and deciding who dies today, and then people figure it out in F3.
You gotta convince me you are town today and find 2 scum in Yuuka Kagerou Kaguya.-
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Aya Shameimaru Goon
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(This happened night 1. Kagerou strongman vigged Tenshi and I redirected a kill from Koishi by scum onto Larvae.)-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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K, fair enough.-
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Aya Shameimaru Goon
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For you especially Reisen, I am conf town because I had every option to murder your slot while we looked for replacement by just saying you die today given I decide who dies. From your PoV you are town so if I were scum here I would essentially just be delaying the game for no reason.-
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Aya Shameimaru Goon
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It's a lot to ask from you especially when I am making the final choice today ANYWAY but...
The more you read and give opinions the more it helps me figure this shit out so.
Try hard away, if you can.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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From a skim of the last few pages I can see my slot is more or less unilaterally scumread, tells me scum see this as the game winning miskill. I don't expect this to be convincing but as a general principle in this type of situation, when everyone is agreeing to a kill they are almost always going to be town. A scum slot being pushed in XYLO is usually going to hae at least some level of hesitation associated with it but the easy miskills usually have nothing defensible about them. Obviously I benefit from knowing my own alignment, but yeah.
Also this - I cannot claim to have conclusive reads on anyone's alignment, but knowing my own alignment here and the gamestate I'd say youve got it exactly backwards. Given we're on Day 5 and no one has killed scum that points a lot more reliably toward conscious manipulation of the gamestate by scum over a potato team doing. Because while sometimes gamse happen where a potato team wins by doing nothing and having town kill itself, they're pretty rare IME. If you reach this point in the game it's usually because someone has been consciously moving you toward ad kills. Again - no conclusions on anyone's alignment but think your logic here is backwards.In post 6131, Aya Shameimaru wrote: also i'm gonna tell you both this, like right now
the other 2 aren't playing.
i'm jsut ruling out Yuuka/Kaguya as a possible team entirely. At MOST one of you is scum. If you're both scum, town has lsot this game anyway because Reisen and Kagerou both just don't wanna be here anymore.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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In post 6230, Aya Shameimaru wrote: For you especially Reisen, I am conf town because I had every option to murder your slot while we looked for replacement by just saying you die today given I decide who dies. From your PoV you are town so if I were scum here I would essentially just be delaying the game for no reason.
I'm a big fan of lost causes so I'll do my best hereIn post 6231, Aya Shameimaru wrote: It's a lot to ask from you especially when I am making the final choice today ANYWAY but...
The more you read and give opinions the more it helps me figure this shit out so.
Try hard away, if you can.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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Will say in particular though that this feels like someone who is anxious to accelerate the day and end the game and doesn't want a replacement coming in and creating problems for them. I know my predecessor targeted them with their spellcard to make them self target, but yeah. Gut ping.In post 6210, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I'm getting tired of waiting for stuff to happen this game. Aya if your kill today is Reisen can you just speed things along and save GIF the trouble of finding a replacement to a 250 page uPick?-
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Yuuka Kazami Mafia Scum
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Aya is just confirmed town because the day would have been over awhile ago if they weren’t lol.Oh, sunflower, so tired of time passing!-
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Aya Shameimaru Goon
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lmfaoIn post 6235, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Aya is just confirmed town because the day would have been over awhile ago if they weren’t lol.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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Game reads significantly faster when I can ignore 90% of the posts on a page, at any rate. Finding one town in 3 people isn't so bad.
Initial impression based on the first ~15 pages is Kagerou looks the towniest and Kaguya/Yuuka are both posting in molds I can easily see scum fitting into. Kagerou there seems to be a mindset of actually trying to figure things out, while Kaguya is unmemorable and Yuuka goes off on what feels like a fairly uncharitable push toward Ichirin.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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In post 295, Eternity Larva wrote: eh i'm not really feeling the Ichirin votes
the below post reads as a genuine town reaction to the sudden burst of votes
and while i can see where Ichirin could be perceived as nitpicking at my unexplained read i don't think it was such an outrageous thing to point out. the amount of criticism sie's receiving for it feels incongruent and unwarrantedIn post 254, Ichirin Kumoi wrote: Oh. I look away for a few minutes and by the time I post again there's 3 people on me.
Koishi's questions from the last page (266 and 270) are contributing to the pile on and egging on the criticism without looking like a genuine attempt to ascertain Ichirin's alignment
and Yuuka specifically felt like she entered into that engagement deliberately looking for a fight by calling Ichrin's posts bad multiple times for reasons i cannot gather from reading the last couple pages
it feels icky in multiple places
VOTE: Koishi KomeijiIn post 296, Eternity Larva wrote: i should go back and remember why i was townreading Yuuka outside the initial miller claim
Also caught my eye. Progression to throw shade but divert pressure away.In post 304, Eternity Larva wrote: of Clown, Yuuka, and Koishi, i think Koishi looks the worst by a large margin
and deserves more votes for their transgressions-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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In post 322, Eternity Larva wrote: Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that wayIn post 325, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
They aren’t going to be for the same reasons cuz I’m super selfish and the world revolves around me but.In post 322, Eternity Larva wrote: Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way
I thought kagerou putting me in their town core off just my ascetic claim was super weird. Marisa piggybacked on but I get their mindset because I’m also predisposed to town reading lighthearted jokey slots especially early in games. So reads genuine.
Kagerous read felt more like my name was thrown in there for the out of the box factor, because that’s just what townies do.
Dai felt more upset that I was being considered townie for doing nothing and I could see that as more scum frustration. So could I can see multiple worlds there.
I don’t think they are together.
Seems a pretty clear pocket attempt though of course I'm biased, the "i want to know why you feel that way" having the effect of making my predecessor do work to earn Larva's trust. The fact it ends with vting Dai but going "eh, I could do Kagerou maybe" isIn post 329, Eternity Larva wrote: i guess i'd join a Kagerou wagon too but i think that read deserves more thought and reevaluation than i am currently capable ofnoted.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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Ah shit I think I know who Kaguya's main is.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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Given the timing and positioning of this it feels pretty unaligning. Possible Larva was attempting to bus and failing but given threadstate it feels pretty pivotal - momentum on Kagerou was real enough, bussing would be a conscious choice where from what I gather Larva had enough influence they could have pressured elsewhere. I think the general noncommittal nature of the push is setting up for it being a town flip - in general I'd expect a bus to show a little higher confidence level than what was shown.In post 388, Eternity Larva wrote: i will be fairly inactive through Monday, other than a few opportunities to post here and there
i plan to reread the game upon my return because i am concerned i have too many townreads and the people i've been not-town reading keep saying things that make me doubt myself which is annoying
i am feeling good about Clownpiece, Sanae, and Marisa for town, in that order
Ichirin is also close to this tier but not quite to the level of the three listed above, for the townie reaction to their wagon that Koishi is still desperately trying to get me to concede could come from scum
i am leaning town on Yuuka still but to be fair this read probably deserves more in depth reevaluation
Tenshi had a solid and imo townie defense to some pressure earlier but has done next to nothing since, so gun-to-head town but i will need more from her to cement that one way or another
Kaguya, Reisen, and Aya are slots i feel nothing about and will be one of my focuses upon reread. i will say i had even had some townpings from Reisen and Aya but nothing strong enough in either direction to make me commit
Dai and Koishi continue to mirror each other when it comes to how i feel about them, as indicated preivously, their early questions and one-off posts came across as surface level and a way to look engaged with the game without contributing anything. however Koishi has dulled that suspicion a bit with our interaction about Ichirin (even though i am growing irritated with being asked the same question in different ways over and over again >_<).
on a similar note i thought Dai's most recent post was great and conveyed the thoughts i found difficult to articulate about Kagerou. basically Koishi and Dai's body of work overall leans scum, but there have been a couple glimmers of towny-ness that shake my confidence
My only fairly solid scum read at this point is Kagerou and even that's pretty...loose? there are some posts that made me feel good on a tone level but i agree with Dai about the bulk of the ISO is pretty fluffy and i see Kagerou has over fifty posts but their actual impact this game does not at all correlate with what i expect based on their high level of activity
from what i can tell there also hasn't been much in terms of reads outside of the Clownpiece scum read (i now see the reads list provided with some interesting takes that i will look into more when i return) which she pretty much refused to elaborate on, and the reasoning she did provide also never sat well with me to begin with and came from the first page. it's difficult for me to buy that into the fact that her opinion on Clownpiece has not changed or evolved since the beginning of the game, especially since Clownpiece is my largest town read, which leads me to believe she is just holding onto it because she needs a strong opinion that goes against the grain
those are all my thoughts for now, please feel free to poke at or ask questions about anything. i am thinking this will be a game where i focus on identifying and locking in town reads and just pushing to eliminate within 'what's left'
VOTE: Kagerou Imaizumi
Only note of hesitation is that if I'm right on Kaguya they'd absolutely bus a partner in that spot on Day 1. But most wouldn't. That's WIFOM at best though.
Got to admit 385 is a big oof regardless of alignment, but. Most scum aren't usually that bold with their reads. One of those cases where having meta would be a significant help.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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mmmIn post 393, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Reisen, Marisa have gone up slightly.
I have reservations about larva. But it’s probably paranoia.
Samae being in a neighborhood with Marisa doesn’t make me feel better or worse.-
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Yuuka Kazami Mafia Scum
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Well, Reisen and Kagerou haven’t led any wagons. And at least one of those player’s is scum.
So you are at maximum half right Reisen.
Whether it’s Kaguya actively controlling the eliminations or the scum team really was just out of sight of mind is difficult to know for sure without, you know, the game ending.Oh, sunflower, so tired of time passing!-
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Yuuka Kazami Mafia Scum
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Finally, someone quotes my posts.Oh, sunflower, so tired of time passing!-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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In post 415, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote:
well i'd like to preface my Clownpiece read by the fact that i think i'm just not in a position to push people this game so my plan right now is to be a bit more laid back and act smug about it when she flips scumIn post 389, Eternity Larva wrote: @Kagerou i know you said reading the thread is difficult right now but i am most interested in your detailed reads on Clownpiece and Sanae when you get around to it
firstly, that whole argument about numbers and all just kinda dragged on and on and in the end i don't think we even got anything out of it?
then, i get being curious about account generation, but the fact that :
- she went ahead and went with straight up numbers
- those numbers don't really match up with what other people have been told
makes me seem she was worried about finding something to start things off while also not caring very much about asking
Spoiler:
I kinda didn't know how to put it into words at the time but like, knowing your exact number of townreads on command is weird
the reaction to Ichirin's reaction was also something that hugely bugged me, to go into reasons :
Spoiler:
Complaining that you aren't getting scrutinized certainely isn't a weird look, and while it's kinda dumb, i feel like if Ichirin called for their agressors to be scum, it would just get called OMGUS?
likewise
i'm also of the opinion that scum often looks more intensely for these sort of low involvement slip rather than town, since like, it's one of the only things town can reasonable do under pressure that is actually scummy
i'll also fully admit that this is hugely a gut read and that i'm proud of it (besides upgrading "i think this is scum" to "i think this is null at best" isn't really game advancing content here)
As for Sanane, as i've said already, i'm suspicious of her view of Yuuka's claim, , i get she was kinda overblowing here cause blah blah early game we already don't have much info early but that's not really clearing
she's also like really passive? I get not all townies can be at the front of the stage but a lot of her content is "agreeing with other people" and "explaining why she agrees with people"
this is somewhat related but when reading the phrasing of posting, i get huge vibes of "i'm posting for others to look at me in a good light" rather than "i'm posting cause i wanna figure out what's going on"
If this is scum theater it's expert-level stuff. This all feels like Kagerou is very legitimately appealing to larva and trying to win their favor, going very in-depth into thought process etc. I can get fooled by this type of stuff but it feels significantly more in depth than I'd expect from a scum/scum interaction. A lot of this and their Kaguya read in 420 feel like they legitimately believe in it and are trying to convince people of that. If they're scum it'd be...calculated anti-distancing? Which is not a typical angle for most players. If there was less substance behind it I could see it but it parses as real enough to me.In post 416, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote:
btw i'm very happy with my impact on the game so far so be assured this is intendedIn post 388, Eternity Larva wrote:
My only fairly solid scum read at this point is Kagerou and even that's pretty...loose? there are some posts that made me feel good on a tone level but i agree with Dai about the bulk of the ISO is pretty fluffy and i see Kagerou has over fifty posts buttheir actual impact this game does not at all correlate with what i expect based on their high level of activity
VOTE: Kagerou Imaizumi
Possible I'm just jumping to conclusions here but shrug. That's my gut feeling off the initial few pages. Sometimes this stuff is more self-evident in the early game and just gets lost in the noise of pages and pages of nonsense afterward.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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Well that's speaking from your POV but I have no knowledge of your alignment at all, so it's not like I can do anything with a statement like this.In post 6244, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Well, Reisen and Kagerou haven’t led any wagons. And at least one of those player’s is scum.
So you are at maximum half right Reisen.
Whether it’s Kaguya actively controlling the eliminations or the scum team really was just out of sight of mind is difficult to know for sure without, you know, the game ending.-
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Reisen Udongein Inaba Goon
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I have to stop for tonight, back with more tomorrow.-
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Yuuka Kazami Mafia Scum
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So’s speculation on how scum approached the game.i can’t do anything with that. Unless you sell it. And you didn’t, but took time to disagree with it, probably because it suits your position.In post 6247, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
Well that's speaking from your POV but I have no knowledge of your alignment at all, so it's not like I can do anything with a statement like this.In post 6244, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Well, Reisen and Kagerou haven’t led any wagons. And at least one of those player’s is scum.
So you are at maximum half right Reisen.
Whether it’s Kaguya actively controlling the eliminations or the scum team really was just out of sight of mind is difficult to know for sure without, you know, the game ending.Oh, sunflower, so tired of time passing!
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