Newbie 2050 | The End

[AliceK]

Good morning everyone. I hope you all have a nice day ^^
I am not a big fun of random voting, but I will join the pattern:
VOTE: StatueSurfer

[AliceK]

Everyone checked in. Cute. From the entrance posts I suspect Charles and LoneMarkhor.

[AliceK]

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningful actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

[AliceK]

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningless actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

EBWOP

[AliceK]

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningful actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

I don’t really think that’s a scum tell; their reasoning isn’t any better than, say, mine.

That's everything I have right now. I am sorry. Reasoning isn't really important. The fact that you want to provide a one is.

[AliceK]

I saw the edit but my brain didn't register the word change for whatever reason. Evidently it needs oiling.

I still don't like it for the reasons stated above. Basically everyone gives a reason in RVS from what I know and it usually doesn't mean much.

Not everyone. Also about Charlie, saying that he is voting for no reason could be made to sound more funny. That being said, it is too early to give strong reads.

[AliceK]

I saw the edit but my brain didn't register the word change for whatever reason. Evidently it needs oiling.

I still don't like it for the reasons stated above. Basically everyone gives a reason in RVS from what I know and it usually doesn't mean much.

Not everyone. Also about Charlie, saying that he is voting for no reason could be made to sound more funny. That being said, it is too early to give strong reads.

Yet you seem very eager to throw shade for flimsy reasons.

Sorry for that. Do you mind to explain why is it something you don't like?

[AliceK]

Also, Alice: you said you dislike random voting but decided to go along with it anyway. Why do you dislike random voting, and why did you go along with it if you're not a fan of it to begin with?

I don't like random voting, because well... it is random, so it doesn't give any value. Often you can't distinguish if a person is still in rvs or started suspecting someone.

Well everyone before me voted someone, each one different person, I just held the pattern. I don't know how people would react if an only person would act differently. That's an easy way to being sus.

[AliceK]

Also, uh, you didn't miss Alice's edit, right Harumi?

I saw the edit but my brain didn't register the word change for whatever reason. Evidently it needs oiling.

What edit are you guys referring to here?

I used wrong word. I wanted to type meaningless, but I wrote meaningful

[AliceK]

Also, Alice: you said you dislike random voting but decided to go along with it anyway. Why do you dislike random voting, and why did you go along with it if you're not a fan of it to begin with?

I don't like random voting, because well... it is random, so it doesn't give any value. Often you can't distinguish if a person is still in rvs or started suspecting someone.

Well everyone before me voted someone, each one different person, I just held the pattern. I don't know how people would react if an only person would act differently. That's an easy way to being sus.

While being seen as suspect

is

something that should be avoided, I don't think that's reason enough to feel obligated to follow everyone's lead. Why do you feel it's necessary to do what everyone else does?

I acted differently, voting malakittens, and nobody reacted with particular suspicion. (I mean, surfer mentioned very slight suspicion off that, but that's too minor to be worth mentioning) Do you find me suspicious for doing so?

It is in human nature. I don't feel that doing something else here is necessary.

Reason you stated was completely nai. You likely planned to do that before you even get a role pm.

[AliceK]

Also, Alice: you said you dislike random voting but decided to go along with it anyway. Why do you dislike random voting, and why did you go along with it if you're not a fan of it to begin with?

I don't like random voting, because well... it is random, so it doesn't give any value. Often you can't distinguish if a person is still in rvs or started suspecting someone.

Well everyone before me voted someone, each one different person, I just held the pattern. I don't know how people would react if an only person would act differently. That's an easy way to being sus.

For reference, the intent of RVS is to provoke reactions so that the game proper can begin, which it did.
You have to start

somewhere

, and MS is pretty dependent on reads.

I can't tell the difference between saying hello to someone and a post with a vote only.

[AliceK]

Also, Alice: you said you dislike random voting but decided to go along with it anyway. Why do you dislike random voting, and why did you go along with it if you're not a fan of it to begin with?

I don't like random voting, because well... it is random, so it doesn't give any value. Often you can't distinguish if a person is still in rvs or started suspecting someone.

Well everyone before me voted someone, each one different person, I just held the pattern. I don't know how people would react if an only person would act differently. That's an easy way to being sus.

For reference, the intent of RVS is to provoke reactions so that the game proper can begin, which it did.
You have to start

somewhere

, and MS is pretty dependent on reads.

I can't tell the difference between saying hello to someone and a post with a vote only.

Votes are related to the game and are therefore more likely to get reads related to the game.

How would you scumhunt a greeting, anyways?

I am not sure if I follow. I think you are right.

[AliceK]

While being seen as suspect is something that should be avoided, I don't think that's reason enough to feel obligated to follow everyone's lead. Why do you feel it's necessary to do what everyone else does?

It is in human nature. I don't feel that doing something else here is necessary. .

This feels like BS.

No it is not. Check here.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_behavior

[AliceK]

While being seen as suspect is something that should be avoided, I don't think that's reason enough to feel obligated to follow everyone's lead. Why do you feel it's necessary to do what everyone else does?

It is in human nature. I don't feel that doing something else here is necessary. .

This feels like BS.

No it is not. Check here.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_behavior

It even has a name: the bandwagon effect.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandwagon_effect

[AliceK]

Why did you suspect LoneMarkhor at the start of the game?

The same reason as for Charles. There are 2 scums. Out of all entrances his and Charles I liked the least.

[AliceK]

Why did you suspect LoneMarkhor at the start of the game?

The same reason as for Charles. There are 2 scums. Out of all entrances his and Charles I liked the least.

Would you mind stating what in particular about the entrance you didn't like? Just so we're all on board.

They feel lazy, but author in both cases explained the vote (no reason; wasn't voted). That's all. Don't expect miracles from single posts. ^^

[AliceK]

Hello Lunar. I hope you will have a good time with is. I might be voting you. I will unvote for now.
UNVOTE:

I like how confident you are but I really doubt you managed to solve the game already. So you think StatueSurfer is doing a chainsaw defense. Intersting.

[AliceK]

I see a lot has happened since my last post. So I planned to do detailed reads during weekend. I will see how it goes. Right now my top tr is Harumi and I agree on her analysis on Lunar. Well not entirely, because I am looking at something different when scumhunting. But there is high chance that Lunar is scum. I would like to see more content from Charles replacement or from crab.

My apologies for the short post, but I will be active much more during the weekend.

[AliceK]

I am still missing content from one of crab, Charles to do proper reads.

Volxen: welcome to the thread in earnest! What are your thoughts about my thoughts about crab? Your vote from the random voting stage is still on Harumi. Do you think Harumi is scummy, or is the vote there because you haven't decided where you actually want to put it?

What are your feelings about charles separate from the people currently voting him?

I think the point that you made about Crab was fair, but I still think that Alice could be scum. In particular I think that there is at least one scum among {Lunar, Crab, Charles, Alice}.

Regarding Harumi, I think that the Harumi vs Lunar exchange is very unlikely to be scum theater, with Harumi being the townier of the two slots. I am also townreading your slot, and Statue remains my strongest townread.

Mala is null for me.

Intersting take. I think opposite that Harumi and Lunar are not svs. Can you elaborate on that?

[AliceK]

I liked volx posting up until this:

I don't want to put Lunar up to E-1 so

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

I don’t like the willingness to vote someone who’s most likely being replaced vs someone actually in the game.

That has a bad taste in my mouth.

It also feels like it's voting based on an agenda rather than solving.

My impression is that one of crab's voters can be a Mafia with Charles. I need to look into all thread actually.

[AliceK]

We have 3 more days. Can you wait with the elimination for my take? I will post it in few hours.

[AliceK]

It's been a little while, so lets spice things up a little. AliceK, who do you think is mafia?

I am not entirely sure. Any reason why are you asking particularly me?

[AliceK]

I am pretty sure RayFrost,StatueSurfer and LunarMartial are all town.I think I will place my vote on crab.
VOTE: Exquisite Crab

[AliceK]

I am pretty sure RayFrost,StatueSurfer and LunarMartial are all town.I think I will place my vote on crab.
VOTE: Exquisite Crab

Why do you think we are Town? Why do you think Crab is Mafia?

Crab skipped 6 days avoiding difficult question. I don't think it is Town way to play the game. Showed up when you started to be attacked. You are Town, because I can't really see a scum team you could fit into. RayFrost has really rational arguments why someone is Town and he cares too much to be a scum in my opinion. I am not 100% sure about surfer, but before you showed up his iso was very decent and I can't see a reason why he would like to activate all the players as Mafia. So yeah these my reads.

[AliceK]

I will have a closer look at malakittens and volxen posts on page 5. I haven't done it yet.

[AliceK]

I am pretty sure RayFrost,StatueSurfer and LunarMartial are all town.I think I will place my vote on crab.
VOTE: Exquisite Crab

Why do you think we are Town? Why do you think Crab is Mafia?

Crab skipped 6 days avoiding difficult question. I don't think it is Town way to play the game. Showed up when you started to be attacked. You are Town, because I can't really see a scum team you could fit into. RayFrost has really rational arguments why someone is Town and he cares too much to be a scum in my opinion. I am not 100% sure about surfer, but before you showed up his iso was very decent and I can't see a reason why he would like to activate all the players as Mafia. So yeah these my reads.

I agree with all your reads, but I think I disagree with the reasoning on all of them too. Except maybe on RayFrost.

What is your take on Crab?

[AliceK]

Everyone checked in. Cute. From the entrance posts I suspect Charles and LoneMarkhor.

I can see why he seems scum, and his response only makes me more suspicious of him.
VOTE: LoneMarkhor

This is not a good post, there's absolutely zero analysis, but it could simply be a Newbie. I need more content to evaluate properly.

Don't you think it is a tell that he is providing no content?

[AliceK]

Welcome Paopao, don't be shy. Also I have an impression taht crab won't speak.

[AliceK]

Paopao promising thoughts "soon" and then not providing them at all is annoying, but nothing I've seen in the recent posts changes my mind about thinking that crab is the best lynch.

This thread is quite slow.

I am quite surprising about Harumi vote on crab. I thought they could be a scum team from interactions.

[AliceK]

I stand ready with a hammer in case, but I'm assuming it isn't. Crab should claim if Crab decides to show up.

I think there is no need to hammer. Let's wait, maybe he will claim.

[AliceK]

Well hello everyone!

I recognize Lunar from games past, hello, Lunar!

Going to take a quick peek at the thread and I'll be back with observations.

Hello. Take into account that you are at E-1. Any comment of your previous spot posts?

[AliceK]

Also Paopao literally has 1 post since subbing in lol. Guess it takes 4 days to read through this thread...

Could've burned out. Happens to a lot of FM newbies. (I'd also like it if you could link to the post numbers when you mention them.)

On another note, aren't we over the deadline at this point, or did I miss something?

Deadline extended due to me replacing-in.

What's the current deadline?

Yes, I wish to know as well.

[AliceK]

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

[AliceK]

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

Only two people are dead, night kill analysis is unlikely to come up with something and instead distracts from other, more useful forms of scumhunting.

That's what I am saying point them out.

[AliceK]

I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.

[AliceK]

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

Would they make some obvious that they are playing with the same agenda? Both of them were pushing you Day 1.

[AliceK]

VOTE: Lunar Martian

E-1.

I am not convinced. Lunar is right, he can't really be partnered with anyone.

[AliceK]

I start to think that Lunar/Harumi is tvt.

[AliceK]

Day ends in 4 hours. I need to decide who to vote. Is Lunar reall at E-1? That doesn't sound right.

[AliceK]

You guys are at E-1, time to claim...

[AliceK]

Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.

Well, there are 7 people. 3 are voting Lunar, 3 are voting you. Guess who has a deciding vote.

[AliceK]

Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.

Well, there are 7 people. 3 are voting Lunar, 3 are voting you. Guess who has a deciding vote.

If you want to be technical, everyone does because they can just stop voting one person and start voting the other.
Regardless, I'm going to go ahead and just say I'm VT as well.

I think this hesitation comes from scum, you probably asked your buddy what should you claim. Im go with you, I think Lunar is enver mafia tbh.
VOTE: Harumi Ayasato
My apologies.

[AliceK]

I'm tracker.

I tracked Lunar on night one and they didn't target anyone.

I tracked Alice on night two and I got a "no result" PM back.

That means we have 2 PR's which is good. At this point 2nd PR should claim as well. I am VT.

[AliceK]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

I think that no elim might provide additional info. I am ok with that.

[AliceK]

Actually volxen's PoE means 2 scum in: Statue, Alice, RayFrost. I'm inclined to just say that confirms volxen as Mafia and say it's Statue and volxen.

I actually can see anyone as Mafia. Ray is my primary suspect I would like to vote tbh. Doesn't really like his Day 1, had a lot of interactions but avoided doing reads.

[AliceK]

My read on Ray is based on the Day 1. I am doing notes to keep everything ordered and according to my notes Ray had interactions almost with everyone, but he didn't share almost anything not neutral. I think he was just looking like being productive. Also I no more TR Lunar, I would if Harumi flipped Mafia, because interactions between her and Lunar were clearly not svs. Right now it is open question. I am suspecting Ray right now. But I agree with no kill, we can no lynch to get back to odd number of players.

[AliceK]

My read on Ray is based on the Day 1. I am doing notes to keep everything ordered and according to my notes Ray had interactions almost with everyone, but he didn't share almost anything not neutral. I think he was just looking like being productive. Also I no more TR Lunar, I would if Harumi flipped Mafia, because interactions between her and Lunar were clearly not svs. Right now it is open question. I am suspecting Ray right now. But I agree with no kill, we can no lynch to get back to odd number of players.

But why did you TR Lunar to start with? And you're on record saying you thought Harumi-Lunar was TvT, so what changed (again)? And why is an odd number of players so important?

I relooked their interactions after my read and changed my mind. Because mislynch = lose in both ELo and MeLo, but in MeLo you have bigger poe.

[AliceK]

I relooked their interactions after my read and changed my mind.

You skipped over the question why you TRed Lunar at all, and this isn't really an answer to the second question. What about their interactions made you change your mind?

I didn't skip it. I answered it. I scumread Harumi and interactions with Lunar weren't svs. The same about you and Lunar, you also aren't svs. I will go with that vote:
VOTE: RayFrost

[AliceK]

I relooked their interactions after my read and changed my mind.

You skipped over the question why you TRed Lunar at all, and this isn't really an answer to the second question. What about their interactions made you change your mind?

I didn't skip it. I answered it. I scumread Harumi and interactions with Lunar weren't svs. The same about you and Lunar, you also aren't svs. I will go with that vote:
VOTE: RayFrost

I believe in PR claims and that Lunar vs Statue are not svs. It locks Ray as Mafia.

[AliceK]

I relooked their interactions after my read and changed my mind.

You skipped over the question why you TRed Lunar at all, and this isn't really an answer to the second question. What about their interactions made you change your mind?

I didn't skip it. I answered it. I scumread Harumi and interactions with Lunar weren't svs. The same about you and Lunar, you also aren't svs. I will go with that vote:
VOTE: RayFrost

I believe in PR claims and that Lunar vs Statue are not svs. It locks Ray as Mafia.

It's probably better than no elim as it allow prs to clear 1 more person if they state who will be jailed in case of mafia flip.

[AliceK]

This chain of logic is really confusing, Alice.

You think Lunar is town, you think Volxen is town, you think Statue is town, you think Mala is town.

So... there's only one mafia left or?

I just said that statue and Lunar are not svs (scum vs scum). One of them is for sure Town. I am sorry if it confused you. I thought it is clear.

[AliceK]

Okay. So, it's not mafia vs mafia.

If you had to choose one, who do you

think

is mafia in that case?

You think I'm confirmed to be mafia here, so who's my partner?

You can match both scum teams. It's quite likely it is you + Lunar as you were defending him Day 1. With Statue you have very few interactions, which also could happen for the mafia team. Probably less likely, because you were pushing different agenda. He was pushing for Lunar's elim, you were protecting him.

[AliceK]

Well good game everyone. I wish I was more convincing in my push on Ray. Probably if I spent more time on the game... Nevertheless Mafia played really well.

[AliceK]

The goal was to make sure people thought it was one or the other of us.

I think you would be in trouble if you were lynched, because Tracker was expected to die. That would definitely ping other two. Good job keeping yourself out of poe.