Newbie 2050 | The End

[Harumi Ayasato]

Malakittens made the first vote. Clearly, that means that they have been scum camping the thread in anticipation of when they'll be able to make their first kill!!!!!!1!!!!!!one!!!

VOTE: Malakittens

[Harumi Ayasato]

Everyone checked in. Cute. From the entrance posts I suspect Charles and LoneMarkhor.

Mind explaining your reasoning? That way I might be able to follow a little better.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningful actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

I don’t really think that’s a scum tell; their reasoning isn’t any better than, say, mine.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningful actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

I don’t really think that’s a scum tell; their reasoning isn’t any better than, say, mine.

That's everything I have right now. I am sorry. Reasoning isn't really important. The fact that you want to provide a one is.

I would imagine that we want people to provide reasoning for this actions rather than vote without explaining themselves (at least once we're out of RVS).

Information is good for town.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I saw the edit but my brain didn't register the word change for whatever reason. Evidently it needs oiling.

I still don't like it for the reasons stated above. Basically everyone gives a reason in RVS from what I know and it usually doesn't mean much.

[Harumi Ayasato]

EBWOP: Since it's earlygame and so my vote doesn't mean a whole lot by itself, I think it's appropriate for me to shift my vote.

VOTE: Alice

[Harumi Ayasato]

I saw the edit but my brain didn't register the word change for whatever reason. Evidently it needs oiling.

I still don't like it for the reasons stated above. Basically everyone gives a reason in RVS from what I know and it usually doesn't mean much.

Not everyone. Also about Charlie, saying that he is voting for no reason could be made to sound more funny. That being said, it is too early to give strong reads.

Yet you seem very eager to throw shade for flimsy reasons.

[Harumi Ayasato]

In reverse, I don't think what Alice said is particularly suspect. It's not the greatest reasoning because other people gave reasons (myself included), but people get feelings all the time. Having a dislike of a specific type of reason for this part of the game is fair.

I find Crab going "oh yeah I can totally see that" when Alice's reasoning is far from sound is more suspect to me.

UNVOTE: Malakittens

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

Harumi, is there a reason that you're suspicious of Alice, but you have no suspicion of crab who just sat on Alice's reasons without any of his own? I'd say it's flimsier to back up someone's flimsy reasons than to have flimsy reasons themselves.

Also, Alice: you said you dislike random voting but decided to go along with it anyway. Why do you dislike random voting, and why did you go along with it if you're not a fan of it to begin with?

Crab hasn’t had a chance to respond yet so I’m going to hold off on judgement until they do.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Also, Alice: you said you dislike random voting but decided to go along with it anyway. Why do you dislike random voting, and why did you go along with it if you're not a fan of it to begin with?

I don't like random voting, because well... it is random, so it doesn't give any value. Often you can't distinguish if a person is still in rvs or started suspecting someone.

Well everyone before me voted someone, each one different person, I just held the pattern. I don't know how people would react if an only person would act differently. That's an easy way to being sus.

For reference, the intent of RVS is to provoke reactions so that the game proper can begin, which it did.
You have to start

somewhere

, and MS is pretty dependent on reads.

[Harumi Ayasato]

What is this, a correspondence club?

[Harumi Ayasato]

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningful actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

I don’t really think that’s a scum tell; their reasoning isn’t any better than, say, mine.

I disagree with this. At this point we are in RVS so I don’t really think there is major thought in the voting process. There used to be a tell that newer scum players would vote their partner in RVS, but that may have changed over the course of the years.

Did you mean to quote me? I think you might've been trying to respond to Alice.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Also, Alice: you said you dislike random voting but decided to go along with it anyway. Why do you dislike random voting, and why did you go along with it if you're not a fan of it to begin with?

I don't like random voting, because well... it is random, so it doesn't give any value. Often you can't distinguish if a person is still in rvs or started suspecting someone.

Well everyone before me voted someone, each one different person, I just held the pattern. I don't know how people would react if an only person would act differently. That's an easy way to being sus.

For reference, the intent of RVS is to provoke reactions so that the game proper can begin, which it did.
You have to start

somewhere

, and MS is pretty dependent on reads.

I can't tell the difference between saying hello to someone and a post with a vote only.

Votes are related to the game and are therefore more likely to get reads related to the game.

How would you scumhunt a greeting, anyways?

[Harumi Ayasato]

While being seen as suspect is something that should be avoided, I don't think that's reason enough to feel obligated to follow everyone's lead. Why do you feel it's necessary to do what everyone else does?

It is in human nature. I don't feel that doing something else here is necessary. .

This feels like BS.

No it is not. Check here.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_behavior

It even has a name: the bandwagon effect.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandwagon_effect

I was not aware that Mafia players were moths, incapable of resisting the pheromones of the others.

@StatueSurfer: That’s probably it to be honest. Must have accidentally skimmed RVS instead of properly reading it.

Regarding Alice, I think a lot of their reasoning is poor which is somewhat scum-indicative (esp. since they’ve had a lot of screentime but spent most of it justifying their behavior in RVS instead of doing something more indicative).

Given their productivity I’m currently townreading Surfer and Rayfrost, although there isn’t a super high bar right now. Given the lack of activity, waiting another RL day to make a readlist is probably the right decision.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Why did you suspect LoneMarkhor at the start of the game?

The same reason as for Charles. There are 2 scums. Out of all entrances his and Charles I liked the least.

Would you mind stating what in particular about the entrance you didn't like? Just so we're all on board.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Hello! I'm here to help. VOTE: Charles

Caught one, who is the other one?

Whoa, whoa, whoa! You can't just vote someone without explaining your reasoning! We're not in RVS anymore!

[Harumi Ayasato]

Alright, like I promised, I'm going to make a readlist now. I believe I made the right choice to wait for reasons I will explain shortly.

Town

Harumi Ayasato:

The one pure person in this town, prove me wrong.

StatueSurfer, Ray Frost:

Reasonably active, and probably trying the hardest to find scum out of anyone here. Moderate-to-strong.

Malakittens, Volxen:

Didn't do a whole lot but did enough to not be a null read. Light.

Null

Charles:

No substantial posts.

Exquisite Crab:

No substantial posts, and they agreed with some dubious reasoning which while suspicious isn't enough for me to scumread yet.

Scum

Alice:

Alice has always been on my radar, as you've probably noticed, due to their strange way of selecting reads, as well as their rather poor justification for their behavior in RVS. They also apparently liked the confidence of Lunar Martian which I also find scummy, especially because of my read on them. Moderate.

Lunar Martian:

Previous player replaced out as soon as they were put under pressure, which rings alarm bells in my head even though I can't confirm that's why. (They also made no substantial posts.) As soon as Lunar enters, they immediately vote Charles, don't provide a reason despite having several opportunities to, and declare the game solved in Day 1, also without providing good reasoning. Every alarm bell in my head is ringing here. Strong.

VOTE: Lunar Martian for the reasons stated above.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Lunar's post here is a very clear posting of "why I voted charles", so I don't feel that your read on him should be as strong as it is.

I also, as stated previously,

hate

using replacement as a basis for any suspicion. Replacement is not something you do with relation to a game. And the level of pressure wasn't even as great as people are trying to make it out to be. The slot got like... two questions? Compare that to me harping about crab, and it's not even the same level. And crab hasn't even posted for me to dig deeper.

Hello everyone

VOTE: volxen
For no reason.

Hi RayFrost,

It is still pretty early for me to have strong reads on people, but I like your vote on Exquisite Crab.

The first post feels like it's overexplaining the RVS vote, which suggests there's a guilty conscience behind it. It's possible that a nervous Town would do the same, but it's more likely that Mafia would feel nervous. The second post buddys/sheeps RayFrost's read on Crab, but doesn't do anything to solve the game. In fact, the other three posts are devoid of any game-related content, so Charles is yet to do anything at all to try and solve the game, including flat out refusing to attempt to have reads.

The replacement wasn't the biggest factor at all; before Lunar posted I was reading null on Lone even after seeing the replace request. It's Lunar's behavior afterwards that worried me.

Also, no offense, but while that is a reason, it's an incredibly stupid reason. How is that overexplaining the RVS vote? I did something like that too, am I suspicious? RVS vote reasons are usually not alignment indicative.

The second post is admittedly not super good but I don't think it's worth a vote on its own, nor is it enough to declare that the game is solved.

Furthermore, he didn't provide this reasoning until

after

multiple people called him out for being scummy, and after he himself had posted several times.

[Harumi Ayasato]

For reference, bussing (trying to get scum killed to make you more trustworthy) is a real tactic and it's actually pretty common. So you voting a scummy person doesn't mean you're out of the hot seat yet.

Alright, like I promised, I'm going to make a readlist now. I believe I made the right choice to wait for reasons I will explain shortly.

Town

Harumi Ayasato:

The one pure person in this town, prove me wrong.

StatueSurfer, Ray Frost:

Reasonably active, and probably trying the hardest to find scum out of anyone here. Moderate-to-strong.

Malakittens, Volxen:

Didn't do a whole lot but did enough to not be a null read. Light.

Null

Charles:

No substantial posts.

Exquisite Crab:

No substantial posts, and they agreed with some dubious reasoning which while suspicious isn't enough for me to scumread yet.

Scum

Alice:

Alice has always been on my radar, as you've probably noticed, due to their strange way of selecting reads, as well as their rather poor justification for their behavior in RVS. They also apparently liked the confidence of Lunar Martian which I also find scummy, especially because of my read on them. Moderate.

Lunar Martian:

Previous player replaced out as soon as they were put under pressure, which rings alarm bells in my head even though I can't confirm that's why. (They also made no substantial posts.) As soon as Lunar enters, they immediately vote Charles, don't provide a reason despite having several opportunities to, and declare the game solved in Day 1, also without providing good reasoning. Every alarm bell in my head is ringing here. Strong.

VOTE: Lunar Martian for the reasons stated above.

This list is really bad overall. There's content with which to sort both the slots listed as null. I think both the people labelled scum are Town. The reasoning for Malakittens is interesting and especially poor. Apparently all you have to do to get Town read by Harumi is not "a whole lot". The reasoning on me is all pretty bad too. Those are things that happened, but there's no analysis of why any of it makes me likely to be Mafia. Actually they all seem like really strange things for Mafia to do, as I said.

It's hardly surprising that you object to my inclusion on the scum side.

My town reads are generally based on me observing people for a while and not detecting any problems; my confidence increases as they participate. As you can see, I only have a light town read on them because they didn't talk that much but still posted substantial content.

Both null reads did post but they didn't post enough for me to make a confident reading. "Insufficient data" would be a good way to describe it.

Voting people with no immediately apparent reason makes you seem like you're trying to be obstructive, which is scum behavior.
Your confidence that you knew they were scum makes you seem like you're not putting much thought into your actions, which is anti-town behavior.
You declaring Statue to be scum over voting you without accounting the possibility of bussing indicates that you're very eager to declare people scum, which is scum behavior. (All of my scumreads are formed over multiple posts.)

I hope that this post makes it clear why I suspect you.

[Harumi Ayasato]

For reference, bussing (trying to get scum killed to make you more trustworthy) is a real tactic and it's actually pretty common. So you voting a scummy person doesn't mean you're out of the hot seat yet.

Alright, like I promised, I'm going to make a readlist now. I believe I made the right choice to wait for reasons I will explain shortly.

Town

Harumi Ayasato:

The one pure person in this town, prove me wrong.

StatueSurfer, Ray Frost:

Reasonably active, and probably trying the hardest to find scum out of anyone here. Moderate-to-strong.

Malakittens, Volxen:

Didn't do a whole lot but did enough to not be a null read. Light.

Null

Charles:

No substantial posts.

Exquisite Crab:

No substantial posts, and they agreed with some dubious reasoning which while suspicious isn't enough for me to scumread yet.

Scum

Alice:

Alice has always been on my radar, as you've probably noticed, due to their strange way of selecting reads, as well as their rather poor justification for their behavior in RVS. They also apparently liked the confidence of Lunar Martian which I also find scummy, especially because of my read on them. Moderate.

Lunar Martian:

Previous player replaced out as soon as they were put under pressure, which rings alarm bells in my head even though I can't confirm that's why. (They also made no substantial posts.) As soon as Lunar enters, they immediately vote Charles, don't provide a reason despite having several opportunities to, and declare the game solved in Day 1, also without providing good reasoning. Every alarm bell in my head is ringing here. Strong.

VOTE: Lunar Martian for the reasons stated above.

This list is really bad overall. There's content with which to sort both the slots listed as null. I think both the people labelled scum are Town. The reasoning for Malakittens is interesting and especially poor. Apparently all you have to do to get Town read by Harumi is not "a whole lot". The reasoning on me is all pretty bad too. Those are things that happened, but there's no analysis of why any of it makes me likely to be Mafia. Actually they all seem like really strange things for Mafia to do, as I said.

It's hardly surprising that you object to my inclusion on the scum side.

My town reads are generally based on me observing people for a while and not detecting any problems; my confidence increases as they participate. As you can see, I only have a light town read on them because they didn't talk that much but still posted substantial content.

Both null reads did post but they didn't post enough for me to make a confident reading. "Insufficient data" would be a good way to describe it.

Voting people with no immediately apparent reason makes you seem like you're trying to be obstructive, which is scum behavior.
Your confidence that you knew they were scum makes you seem like you're not putting much thought into your actions, which is anti-town behavior.
You declaring Statue to be scum over voting you without accounting the possibility of bussing indicates that you're very eager to declare people scum, which is scum behavior. (All of my scumreads are formed over multiple posts.)

I hope that this post makes it clear why I suspect you.

The point is you're not doing anything to really understand my thought process, and rather than trying to analyze it you say "This could come from Mafia, therefore this person is Mafia." Mafia try to blend in and look like Town, so surface level analysis of "Mafia might do this" isn't going to be very effective. If you had instead asked me about my reasoning, I could have explained in a far greater level of detail. Obviously I'm putting on a show with my confidence, I do a lot of things to try and see how people react. Generating interactions and things for people to comment on is very useful in trying to determine whether they're Mafia.

Voting people with no apparent reason is not more likely to come from Mafia than Town I think. Mafia have reasons for their actions - they have an agenda that they're pushing. It's very easy to state false reasons as Mafia to justify your actions. Your job as Town is to try and ascertain whether people's reasons are genuine. Me voting is constructive. It generates content. It gives you something to evaluate. Me not stating a reason gives people an opportunity to ask questions and engage.
There's a difference between being confident and being cocky, and there's a difference between not thinking and not showing your work. I think if you clear your mind and re-read my posts, you'll see that there is actually a lot of reasoning expressed in my posts.
Why is it scum behavior to declare people as scum? Mafia only want to declare Town as Mafia. It would be very unlikely for a Mafia member to open the game by saying "Here is my partner, I've caught them for you." Bussing is a possibility, but Mafia only bus when there's some reason for them to do so. If you can explain why you think me as Mafia decides to make my first post in the game a naked bus vote, then I'll back off.

Anyway, I still think you're Town making a genuine effort, I just think your analysis is a bit shallow.

If you know that people are going to ask for a reason for a given action and intend to provide it when they ask, why not provide it outright?

While these are rookie mistakes to be sure, the town (including me) still has to punish these, because otherwise scum will intentionally make them and say "no scum would be stupid enough to do these". The fact that this is a newbie game and you've played only once before (I think) makes this even more important.

Keep in mind that I can't see PT, which has daytalk. So it could be that your partner requested this. Also keep in mind that the reasoning could be "I want my partner to be more trustworthy" or "I think I'm going to get lynched anyway"; since several people are scumreading Charles this wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to arrange.

[Harumi Ayasato]

The things you don't say are as important as the things you say. Look how much discussion was generated by my opening post. I don't think you have the right mindset. Punishing people who don't conform to your norms of Town behavior is more likely to be successful in identifying unusual personality types than identifying Mafia members. I actually have 3 completed games in addition to some ongoing games (that I obviously won't be commenting on any further). You keep providing possible scenarios where I could be Mafia, but your job is not to say "this is possible, therefore it is reality". That's really bad logic. You have to analyze why my actions make more sense coming from Mafia than Town. You haven't really done that.

N.B. In my one completed Town game, I was suspected heavily and died Day 1, while calling out Town for poor play. Mafia won that game. In my two completed games as Mafia, I survived and won in one game, and in the other game no one suspected me until the tracker tracked me making the kill. So I'm capable of blending in and hiding my intentions as Mafia. I'm being pretty transparent here, and I think it's patently obvious that I'm Town.

There's one particular point I notice you aren't addressing, and it's a pretty big one for me. Let me quickly repeat it.

If you knew the town would ask for your reasoning for your vote and intended to provide it, why did you not provide it with the vote?

"It generated discussion" isn't really valid here, since the town has better things to do than waste time pressing you for reasons for everything you do. We don't have unlimited time/attention.

Please answer this point as soon as possible, since this one in particular is very non-negotiable for me.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Actually, I'm noticing a general pattern in your arguments. Your basic argument boils down to "there are reasons that town could perform these actions", but you fail to provide said reasoning for several of these: The one listed above, and why you declared the game "solved" despite the fact that doing so on D1 is practically impossible.

So I'd appreciate it if you moved more towards providing reasoning to your actions rather than saying "this doesn't necessarily mean you're scum", because that makes it look like you don't have better options. Just a thought.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Actually, I'm noticing a general pattern in your arguments. Your basic argument boils down to "there are reasons that town could perform these actions", but you fail to provide said reasoning for several of these: The one listed above, and why you declared the game "solved" despite the fact that doing so on D1 is practically impossible.

So I'd appreciate it if you moved more towards providing reasoning to your actions rather than saying "this doesn't necessarily mean you're scum", because that makes it look like you don't have better options. Just a thought.

The burden of proof is with you. Statistically, I'm probably Town just because most people are. I don't have to prove that I'm Town. I just have to find Mafia and knock down arguments that claim I'm Mafia. If your reasons for voting me are poor, then other people won't vote me. I don't particularly care whether you think I'm Mafia or not, so long as I'm able to find the actual Mafia. I know some people will take issue with that attitude, but again, I don't really care. I'm here to play the game the way I want, not the way you want. Feel free to continue to pressure me. It's worthwhile because of the way other people react to it. But you're wrong. And you really haven't presented a reason to think I could be Mafia.

This isn't a court of law, and I don't need to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt you are sum. Not that that would be possible; there is always technically a reason that you could perform any scummy action, even if that is "he's an idiot".
The reason I scumread you is because you performed many things that hint to you being scum. Sure, one of those could be coincidence; but the chance of them all being so is small enough that I feel it's worth lynching you.

The things you don't say are as important as the things you say. Look how much discussion was generated by my opening post. I don't think you have the right mindset. Punishing people who don't conform to your norms of Town behavior is more likely to be successful in identifying unusual personality types than identifying Mafia members. I actually have 3 completed games in addition to some ongoing games (that I obviously won't be commenting on any further). You keep providing possible scenarios where I could be Mafia, but your job is not to say "this is possible, therefore it is reality". That's really bad logic. You have to analyze why my actions make more sense coming from Mafia than Town. You haven't really done that.

N.B. In my one completed Town game, I was suspected heavily and died Day 1, while calling out Town for poor play. Mafia won that game. In my two completed games as Mafia, I survived and won in one game, and in the other game no one suspected me until the tracker tracked me making the kill. So I'm capable of blending in and hiding my intentions as Mafia. I'm being pretty transparent here, and I think it's patently obvious that I'm Town.

There's one particular point I notice you aren't addressing, and it's a pretty big one for me. Let me quickly repeat it.

If you knew the town would ask for your reasoning for your vote and intended to provide it, why did you not provide it with the vote?

"It generated discussion" isn't really valid here, since the town has better things to do than waste time pressing you for reasons for everything you do. We don't have unlimited time/attention.

Please answer this point as soon as possible, since this one in particular is very non-negotiable for me.

Like I said, the things you don't say are as important as those you do. For me, generating early discussion is the key to setting up a high-information late game that allows you to expose Mafia. It really doesn't matter what people are arguing about, it matters what stances people take and how they position themselves. So by creating something for people to discuss, my post was very successful. My question to you is, again, why assume that I'm Mafia rather than asking me a probing question? By trying to understand my mindset you'll learn a lot more about my alignment than by assuming I'm Mafia. And if you really think you have better things to do with your time, go do them. You're the one who keeps attacking me for this point, I'm trying to find Mafia.

That argument could be used to justify literally anything. (barring PRs)
For instance, if someone were to say "Why are you voting me for claiming Cop D1? I was just trying to start discussion for scumhunting!" you probably wouldn't buy it.
Obviously this isn't as damning but I fail to see a significant difference in strategy. It's stupid there and it isn't much smarter here.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Yeah, I think it's probably a good idea to let other people weigh in on this. Team game, after all (and it's pretty clear at this point neither of us are backing down).

I won't post further until someone other than you posts.

[Harumi Ayasato]

@StatueSurfer: I think there was a bit of a miscommunication. I wasn’t asking him to explain his vote, I’m aware he did; I asked why he did not do so immediately.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Poor communication kills.

But anyways, I’m going to keep my vote up for now because Lunar still didn’t provide a good reason for their delay in explanation.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I am still missing content from one of crab, Charles to do proper reads.

Volxen: welcome to the thread in earnest! What are your thoughts about my thoughts about crab? Your vote from the random voting stage is still on Harumi. Do you think Harumi is scummy, or is the vote there because you haven't decided where you actually want to put it?

What are your feelings about charles separate from the people currently voting him?

I think the point that you made about Crab was fair, but I still think that Alice could be scum. In particular I think that there is at least one scum among {Lunar, Crab, Charles, Alice}.

Regarding Harumi, I think that the Harumi vs Lunar exchange is very unlikely to be scum theater, with Harumi being the townier of the two slots. I am also townreading your slot, and Statue remains my strongest townread.

Mala is null for me.

Intersting take. I think opposite that Harumi and Lunar are not svs. Can you elaborate on that?

Sorry, but I can't understand this post. Could you please rephrase it?

[Harumi Ayasato]

I would be posting more but there's honestly not a lot I can comment on. If you ask me to comment on something I will, though.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I think the reason Volx did that is because he was afraid of scum quickhammering. Not a super good play in my opinion but I don't think it's a very reliable scum tell, so I'll just keep it in mind.

I don't like Crab's entrance that much, but I'm not really interested in a super long discourse with him since we're getting close to the deadline, so I think we'll just have to save dealing with him for D2.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Right, state of the union. Might’ve been tunneling Lunar, I’ll give him that. He’s been acting pretty OK since I got on his case.
Crab I also don’t like, since he just pops out of nowhere and asks for scum reads and such, so I consider them about equally suspicious.

I’ll UNVOTE: for now and when Crab next talks I’ll make a decision.

[Harumi Ayasato]

@Alice: In that case, perhaps I might encourage him to do so.

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

[Harumi Ayasato]

I’m going to take the prod as a cue that I should make a readlist. I will do so tomorrow.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Fair enough. In that case, I propose someone hammer Crab, since it’s exceedingly unlikely we’re going to get something new from the replacements that’ll change our choice.

[Harumi Ayasato]

[quote=StatueSurfer]Also Paopao literally has 1 post since subbing in lol. Guess it takes 4 days to read through this thread...[/quote]

Could've burned out. Happens to a lot of FM newbies. (I'd also like it if you could link to the post numbers when you mention them.)

On another note, aren't we over the deadline at this point, or did I miss something?

[Harumi Ayasato]

Note to self: Learn how quotes work.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Also Paopao literally has 1 post since subbing in lol. Guess it takes 4 days to read through this thread...

Could've burned out. Happens to a lot of FM newbies. (I'd also like it if you could link to the post numbers when you mention them.)

On another note, aren't we over the deadline at this point, or did I miss something?

Deadline extended due to me replacing-in.

What's the current deadline?

[Harumi Ayasato]

Nobody's posted in a bit. Scum are content with this hammer.

Alternatively, nobody can come up with a good reason to oppose it without making themselves look idiotic/scummy.

This post confirms my belief that you are the right lim. Thank you for your very, very brief service.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I'm willing to hammer, especially since it's not clear what the deadline is.

Awesome, just give formal intent so Cook and any involved parties have last chances to tip in. Unless this was your formal intent.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I haven't played too many mafia games, but I feel that self-hammering is one of the least productive things you can do as any alignment.

Like ever.

In any circumstance.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Aaaand the award for "least justified start-of-D2 vote" goes to...drumroll please...

Lunaaaaar Martiaaaan!

It's a shame. You were doing OK at the end of D1. But I'm going to go ahead and shift my vote to you now just because that is a godawful way to start the day.

VOTE: Lunar Martian

The NK is a bit weird but it's probably a bad idea to spend time trying to analyze it when there are a bunch of other things that can be much easier to analyze, especially since (as someone pointed out) we aren't likely to get anything useful from NK analysis anyways.

I also don't understand what points to the SEs. I don't understand why we're differentiating them in general.

[Harumi Ayasato]

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

Only two people are dead, night kill analysis is unlikely to come up with something and instead distracts from other, more useful forms of scumhunting.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I also have a personal hatred for posts that are just a vote with no other explanation.

As well as just about anything with no explanation for that matter, like your reads.

[Harumi Ayasato]

OK, that was genuinely funny. But I do await your reasoning when you get the chance.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Now, on to why Harumi:

I ask you, what has Harumi contributed to this game?

A theory disagreement with Alice which was more distracting than revealing.

I mean, it didn't really come to much, but it was the beginning of D1. There wasn't really anything I could have been distracting from.

Some point scoring[

OK.

A reads list which essentially boiled down to "these people are not people I'm trying to push right now and they've posted, so they're town" - "neutral for not posting" - "Lunar's a popular vote right now, so I'm going to follow what other people say" and "this seems like an easy target"

The reason I wasn't trying to push them is because I didn't see anything scummy; my townreads are usually based off of "this person has performed a comparatively large amount of posting without doing something scummy, so they're probably town." I was also one of the people who started the push for Lunar in the first place.

Most of Harumi's posting attacks the argument but doesn't truly assign mafia motivation to the player

People who do anti-town things are less likely to be town than people who don't. Lunar in particular is not a newbie and therefore should know better.

This post looks like someone trying to get points (

my

reads are based off of multiple posts!).

Yes, I would presumably want to make my reads seem credible. It's my job to make my opinions credible.

"We have to punish mistakes like these!" has to be one of the more blatant "making an excuse for when this person flips town" posts I've seen. "You couldn't possibly suspect

me

for voting them. After all, they was playing so badly. We had to get rid of them, for the good of the town!"

Someone was making the argument "this isn't scum indicative because no scum would be stupid enough to do that", which I thought was stupid because that argument would let scum get away with blatant anti-town behavior.

Harumi only gives up on trying to argue with Lunar when Lunar stops, even though it had passed the point of productivity. Which shows a desire to generate more noise (and score more points).

For all I knew, maybe he would bust out something that would significantly change the game state. He didn't, though.

Harumi "doesn't like" crab's entrance but also sees someone they can push off to the following day and wants to try and push the Lunar lynch through on day 1 instead. This type of posting allows Harumi to sit back without contributing to the discussion.

At the time, I didn't think crab was scummier than Lunar.

Then, when the momentum of the Lunar lynch seems to be dying, Harumi's suddenly is all for moving over to crab as the tide (oceanic pun intended) seems to be shifting.

The thing with Mafia is that sometimes the game will change, causing my opinion to as well. There's a more detailed reason for my switch a couple responses below.

Harumi is consistently behind other people when it comes to pushing or suspecting players.

This is due mainly to when I check into the game. Admittedly my responses aren't super prompt.

This "you were doing okay at the end of D1" stuff is superfluous. Harumi's vote on crab was almost unexplained and born from seeing other people vote crab and seeing that a Lunar lynch wasn't going to go through. The "he was looking a little bit better" in day 1 is just a light, touch-once excuse for the vote swap when it happened, and we can see how easily Harumi switches back.

He was, though; he spent the latter part of D1 without any substantial anti-town behavior, while crab had just did something very anti-town. That's why I switched.

Responses above in bold.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.

I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)

[Harumi Ayasato]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.

I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

You're forgetting option number three; that mafia simply had a lapse in their judgement, which would likely imply a newbie.

[Harumi Ayasato]

That's not a realistic possibility. It's never a small-brained play to kill a blank slot. It's some sort of big brain move.

Well, I mean, at the very least, the kill could be random (or as close as you can get with humans). As far as I am aware, there is no law of statistics mandating that random kills avoid blank slots.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Sorry about the lack of activity, been busy the last couple of days.

Statue assume I'm Town for a minute. Who is your pick for the Mafia team?

Sure, I'm willing to dive into some fantasy for a moment.

Harumi/MK: if we take Frost's points as true, then MK seems like a potential partner here. They've had virtually zero interaction (I think I found one), and Harumi TRed MK based on rather spurious logic.

...and that's honestly the only good scumteam I can really come up with that doesn't include you, but here's another:

Harumi/Alice: two newbs explains the utterly bizarre nightkill! but doesn't make much sense otherwise.

I'll respond to everything else tomorrow, I promise!

Eh, fair I guess.

Though I like to think I'd be a

little

competent as scum...

[Harumi Ayasato]

@StatueSurfer: This was probably a lapse of judgement on my part. You are correct in that I should do that more, but unfortunately I can't really say much else beyond "whoops".

@Lunar: I don't like how I suddenly am on your scum list with no explanation, not even a "per RayFrost".

I'm going to dissect all of Lunar's D2 posts when I get the chance. I would provide a readlist but since Lunar is at E-one it's probably not a good idea unless something changes.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I wasn't asking for an essay I was just asking for any reason whatsoever good god

It's a tad late so I'll compose my full analysis in the morning. Good night.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Well, I said I'd do this, so here it is. Every post Lunar made D2 and my thoughts on it. I feel like it wouldn't hurt for someone to do the same to me, since at this point it's clear that one of us is dying today.

WOW THAT'S SO RUDE.

This was in response to someone who had just replaced in being NKed. This comes off as a NAI joke to me.

An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?

Lunar starts off by raising this point without providing any reasoning at all. This alone would be pretty bad, but it's made worse by some other things he does later.

VOTE: Mala

Mostly an extension of the above post. Lunar has a habit of making rapid small posts, but I'm fairly sure this isn't unique to him.

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

Normally I agree with NK analysis later in the game, but please explain to me what type of information we are going to get out of two slots that were null and another who didn’t post?

I just feel like Lunar tried to set this up to frame people, but ofc it’s against me, but he still hasn’t answered why me instead of the other SEs

Why you? It was a low information guess. People's reactions around the vote have been super informative though. When I said both, I was referring to both Mafia, not both SEs. Either way, not a Town tell. Town has no extra reason to not know the number of SEs. More to follow shortly.

I'm fairly sure this is the second time Lunar justified an action by saying "I was baiting for reactions", but I might be wrong. He also says that he's learned things from said reactions but afaik he never actually said what those things were, so I'm inclined to believe this isn't true.

For example: AliceK is pretty obviously Town. Mala is looking very Town.

Normally I'd bash Lunar for posting reads without explanation but everyone's doing that this game.

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

Normally I agree with NK analysis later in the game, but please explain to me what type of information we are going to get out of two slots that were null and another who didn’t post?

I just feel like Lunar tried to set this up to frame people, but ofc it’s against me, but he still hasn’t answered why me instead of the other SEs

I do really dislike the second line here. I hadn't posted at all, it's not like I was ignoring you, I just wasn't online. Killing a slot that had done absolutely nothing and was probably going to be a VT implies they were going after Krazy, which suggests a personal connection to Krazy, which implies that an SE wanted Krazy dead, because it's unlikely that a newbie knows Krazy well enough to be concerned.

Now Lunar explains his logic (which makes me wonder why he didn't do so before). This reasoning is very poor, but I'm not going to waste too much time dissecting it because several people, including me, already have.

WOW THAT'S SO RUDE.

Kind of a weird thing to say.

An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?

This is either a townslip or you not actually paying attention, because there's

three

SEs (volxen is the third). And... I also don't understand the logic behind why you think a SE in particular would've killed him.

Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

Well, I'll indulge myself for a moment anyway, because this kill makes absolutely no sense. Multiple people said they thought this slot was scummy (and I don't remember anyone saying they thought they were town), so why kill them? Me and you were townread by just about everybody, so why wasn't one of us targeted?

IMO the possibilities are:
1) the scumteam is just newbies and decided to just kill a random townie
2) the actual townies are so completely on the wrong track that they're comfortable keeping us alive
3) the scumteam deliberately wanted to cause this kind of WIFOMy analysis by killing someone SRed (kind of ties into the above, since both would likely require skilled players)

and in light of that I'll drop it for the time being.

Now, my reads list:

Townreads:

Nobody because I'm paranoid

Townleans:

RayFrost: helpful to town, good points, good analysis, solid questioning
Volxen: good questioning, good analysis
Harumi: pro-town behavior, good questioning

Null:

AliceK: Bad reads, waffles constantly, but has started acting more pro-town of late.

Scumleans:

Malakittens: Little questioning, mediocre analysis (imo), feels like fake activity

Scumreads:

Lunar Martian: Bad entrances to both days, a lot of IIoA/statistical analysis posts, not a ton of actual analysis, mediocre questioning

An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?

I played some games with Krazy and in some games that he modded back in 2019. I would nightkill a townread player from day one over Krazy.

I do agree with Frost that this is weird, and worded oddly specifically.

Statue assume I'm Town for a minute. Who is your pick for the Mafia team?

Lunar asks these sort of questions a lot, to the point where I'm of the opinion it's no longer useful. Can't really tell if this indicates scum though.

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

An explanation why, at the time of posting, would be great. Or at least "I'll explain more when I have time" if appropriate.

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

Lunar explains the two possibilities why his reasoning is correct. Unfortunately he missed several, which will be brought up shortly.

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

Yet

another

scumread thrown out with no explanation. I at least had the benefit of RayFrost writing a long post of why I should be executed, but Statue recieved no such post.

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually. I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Interestingly, he doesn't cite RayFrost as being a reason he suspects me. He also reiterates his SE theory (which he is very fond of as you probably noticed).

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.

I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

This is just him requoting one of his posts at my request because I am small-brained.

I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.

Doubt it. Explain though?

I mean, that's a reasonable response to Unexplained Read #11037 in this game.

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

Would they make some obvious that they are playing with the same agenda? Both of them were pushing you Day 1.

I mean that's pure WIFOM. I don't have any reason to think they are partners. I just suspect both of them. Like I said, I think there's an SE in the mix.

Not much to say here, because he's basically just reiterating stuff he's already said.

That's not a realistic possibility. It's never a small-brained play to kill a blank slot. It's some sort of big brain move.

This logic doesn't hold up; at the very least, there's a 1/8 chance he'd die if a random slot was picked, and that's not taking into account a misplay.
This post in particular gives me the impression that he's not interested in changing his theory, which in turn gives me the impression that he's not actually trying to find scum.

Statue and if I'm Mafia, who am I partnered with?

Another one of these questions.

I'm pretty set on a PoE of Volxen, Statue, and Harumi. Everyone else is Town.

WHY?

@StatueSurfer: This was probably a lapse of judgement on my part. You are correct in that I should do that more, but unfortunately I can't really say much else beyond "whoops".

@Lunar: I don't like how I suddenly am on your scum list with no explanation, not even a "per RayFrost".

I'm going to dissect all of Lunar's D2 posts when I get the chance. I would provide a readlist but since Lunar is at E-one it's probably not a good idea unless something changes.

Your argument for suspecting me is silly. Why would Mafia be any more likely than Town to not write an essay every time their mind changes. I started thinking you were scummy before Ray posted, but that case is very good and lays it out well.

I already responded to this.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Well, I might as well give my overall analysis.

Most of your posts are meaningless noise.
You ask a lot of questions which I doubt actually tell you anything.
You come up with a theory with rather poor reasoning and refuse to change it despite the fact that it's unlikely to be true.
You

constantly

perform actions without explaining them.
You also have said twice now that "this is informative" without saying what you've learned.

All of this makes me feel like you're not trying to solve the game. (And I did bring all of those up in the previous post, but admittedly they weren't super clear.)
I feel now would be a good time to respond to these.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Your playstyle is anti-town. Anti-town people should be executed. This is why I am focusing on your playstyle.

Also, when people don't share their reasoning, it's easy to assume it's because there is no good reason--or, rather, because this reason is tied to them being scum.

[Harumi Ayasato]

The burden is not on me to defend you, the burden is on you.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Well, yeah, people should prove their own scumreads but you're apparently saying that I should find town justification for your actions??? For some reason???

[Harumi Ayasato]

Well, then, I'll ask you a question myself. What would it take for you to change your mind on the SE theory?

[Harumi Ayasato]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I can't help but notice that you didn't answer my question. Please do so.

[Harumi Ayasato]

EBWOP: You might've mistaken my question for me just speculating and not actually expecting an answer. It wasn't. I do expect your thoughts, @Lunar.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.

I didn't answer because I've already talked about it. They might have said something that Krazy would know is a tell, or Krazy might be good at reading them. For sure no newbie would have any particular reason to kill Krazy.

And you're saying that a scum team seeing a replacement before they've decided on a kill and immediately decided that this player, who has not said

anything

in this game, is the most threatening person in this game? You're saying this is more likely than a misplay, PR hunting, or any of those alternative theories?

[Harumi Ayasato]

Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.

Well, there are 7 people. 3 are voting Lunar, 3 are voting you. Guess who has a deciding vote.

If you want to be technical, everyone does because they can just stop voting one person and start voting the other.
Regardless, I'm going to go ahead and just say I'm VT as well.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Alright, here's my final thoughts on the game.

RayFrost and volxen are probably town. Alice I can't get a good read on, it seems like they're trying to solve the game so I'm inclined to think they're town but I can't tell for sure.
Mala and Surfer are null tells for me, Mala because they didn't talk much and Surfer because I noticed they kind of forged an alliance with me, which could be indicative of scum trying to make people think I'm his partner.
My personal best strategy going forward is to kill Lunar tomorrow. I doubt he's going to have new information tomorrow, he isn't a power role, and he's contentious enough that confirming his alignment is probably a good idea.

Also, no offense, RayFrost, but sayinig "scum would not act so antitown" is incredibly WIFOM and logic that I would avoid if at all possible.

[Harumi Ayasato]

sets the town on fire