Newbie 2050 | The End

[Lunar Martian]

Hello! I'm here to help. VOTE: Charles

Caught one, who is the other one?

[Lunar Martian]

Charles I realize it's early, but could you give your best guess at who might be Mafia and explain why? Who do you think is probably Town and why?

[Lunar Martian]

What happened to the big post I had at #50? It just vanished for no reason, and weirdly it's still viewable indirectly from my profile, but redirects to the new #50.

Anyway.

Why did you suspect LoneMarkhor at the start of the game?

The same reason as for Charles. There are 2 scums. Out of all entrances his and Charles I liked the least.

This is what you said about Charles after I pressed you the first time:

Not everyone.

Also about Charlie, saying that he is voting for no reason could be made to sound more funny.

That being said, it is too early to give strong reads.

Note the presence of an actual reason besides "I just didn't like it". I would like you write down the actual reason you didn't like his entrance.

Glad to see Volxen and Malakittens are showing up.

Everything Lunar has done so far has made me think that slot is scum. It feels like he's either bussing his partner or framing an admittedly very easy target to frame. That said, I would like to see Charles actually contribute, but for now

VOTE: Lunar Martian

Harumi what are your reads on everyone?

So you agree that the person I'm voting is Mafia, and your reaction is to vote me? That's not a Town reaction at all. OK, I declare this game solved. It's Charles and Statue.

[Lunar Martian]

Also, I'm not 100% sure due to the replacement, but I think I'm on E-2.

[Lunar Martian]

So you agree that the person I'm voting is Mafia, and your reaction is to vote me? That's not a Town reaction at all. OK, I declare this game solved. It's Charles and Statue.

I didn't say he was mafia. I do, however, think he's scummy. And so what? I have scumreads on like four people. Obviously all of them can't be scum, and you look like the best candidate.

Also you never explained why you thought Charles was scum, which isn't helping your case.

And you are correct that if you being replaced in didn't clear the votes on your slot, you are at L-2. I wasn't keeping track and there hasn't been an official votecount posted yet.

Ok who are the four people, could you give me a run-down on why you think they could be Mafia? Why am I the best candidate?

[Lunar Martian]

"It feels like he's either bussing his partner or framing an admittedly very easy target to frame. That said, I would like to see Charles actually contribute"

This part just really doesn't feel like it's coming from Town. I'm not Mafia for pushing a slot that deserves to be pushed, that's silly.

[Lunar Martian]

Hello everyone

VOTE: volxen
For no reason.

Hi RayFrost,

It is still pretty early for me to have strong reads on people, but I like your vote on Exquisite Crab.

The first post feels like it's overexplaining the RVS vote, which suggests there's a guilty conscience behind it. It's possible that a nervous Town would do the same, but it's more likely that Mafia would feel nervous. The second post buddys/sheeps RayFrost's read on Crab, but doesn't do anything to solve the game. In fact, the other three posts are devoid of any game-related content, so Charles is yet to do anything at all to try and solve the game, including flat out refusing to attempt to have reads.

[Lunar Martian]

"It feels like he's either bussing his partner or framing an admittedly very easy target to frame. That said, I would like to see Charles actually contribute"

This part just really doesn't feel like it's coming from Town. I'm not Mafia for pushing a slot that deserves to be pushed, that's silly.

Why does that sentence in particular stand out to you as being scum-indicative? I currently have a townlean on Statue. I’m not sure that scum!Statue would be as aggressive as he was in his questioning/pushing on Alice, or that scum!him would put your slot up to E-2 this early on in the game. Newer players are usually more self-conscious as scum, and this is Statue’s first game on site.

I’m not seeing how it’s inconsistent for Statue to simultaneously have scumreads on both you and Charles. You seem to be insinuating that if he scumreads Charles then he should automatically be townreading you just because you are voting for Charles.

He can scumread us both. But he can't think that me scumreading Charles makes me Mafia if he also scumreads Charles.

[Lunar Martian]

"It feels like he's either bussing his partner or framing an admittedly very easy target to frame. That said, I would like to see Charles actually contribute"

This part just really doesn't feel like it's coming from Town. I'm not Mafia for pushing a slot that deserves to be pushed, that's silly.

Why does that sentence in particular stand out to you as being scum-indicative? I currently have a townlean on Statue. I’m not sure that scum!Statue would be as aggressive as he was in his questioning/pushing on Alice, or that scum!him would put your slot up to E-2 this early on in the game. Newer players are usually more self-conscious as scum, and this is Statue’s first game on site.

I’m not seeing how it’s inconsistent for Statue to simultaneously have scumreads on both you and Charles. You seem to be insinuating that if he scumreads Charles then he should automatically be townreading you just because you are voting for Charles.

I will continue to share some but not all of my reasoning with the thread. If you ask I can provide reasoning, as I did. If you check my completed Town game, you will see I did the same thing there. Jumping to the conclusion that it's scum motivated without any explanation of why Mafia would want to draw attention to themselves by naked voting onto a wagon is pretty bad logic. Actually, in what world would Mafia ever do that? That's very bad Mafia play, and so if you think I'm Mafia because of that you're kind of insulting my intelligence.

[Lunar Martian]

Also Lone explicitly said that he hates playing as Town and is bad at it. Don't read into the replacement, but if you're reading into the replacement and ignoring that post you're being disingenuous.

[Lunar Martian]

Alright, like I promised, I'm going to make a readlist now. I believe I made the right choice to wait for reasons I will explain shortly.

Town

Harumi Ayasato:

The one pure person in this town, prove me wrong.

StatueSurfer, Ray Frost:

Reasonably active, and probably trying the hardest to find scum out of anyone here. Moderate-to-strong.

Malakittens, Volxen:

Didn't do a whole lot but did enough to not be a null read. Light.

Null

Charles:

No substantial posts.

Exquisite Crab:

No substantial posts, and they agreed with some dubious reasoning which while suspicious isn't enough for me to scumread yet.

Scum

Alice:

Alice has always been on my radar, as you've probably noticed, due to their strange way of selecting reads, as well as their rather poor justification for their behavior in RVS. They also apparently liked the confidence of Lunar Martian which I also find scummy, especially because of my read on them. Moderate.

Lunar Martian:

Previous player replaced out as soon as they were put under pressure, which rings alarm bells in my head even though I can't confirm that's why. (They also made no substantial posts.) As soon as Lunar enters, they immediately vote Charles, don't provide a reason despite having several opportunities to, and declare the game solved in Day 1, also without providing good reasoning. Every alarm bell in my head is ringing here. Strong.

VOTE: Lunar Martian for the reasons stated above.

This list is really bad overall. There's content with which to sort both the slots listed as null. I think both the people labelled scum are Town. The reasoning for Malakittens is interesting and especially poor. Apparently all you have to do to get Town read by Harumi is not "a whole lot". The reasoning on me is all pretty bad too. Those are things that happened, but there's no analysis of why any of it makes me likely to be Mafia. Actually they all seem like really strange things for Mafia to do, as I said.

[Lunar Martian]

RayFrost, you asked me my thoughts on Harumi and Crab. I think Harumi is just noob Town (see above) who is trying to solve and just not doing a great job of understanding people's motivations. Crab I think is potential Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

For reference, bussing (trying to get scum killed to make you more trustworthy) is a real tactic and it's actually pretty common. So you voting a scummy person doesn't mean you're out of the hot seat yet.

Alright, like I promised, I'm going to make a readlist now. I believe I made the right choice to wait for reasons I will explain shortly.

Town

Harumi Ayasato:

The one pure person in this town, prove me wrong.

StatueSurfer, Ray Frost:

Reasonably active, and probably trying the hardest to find scum out of anyone here. Moderate-to-strong.

Malakittens, Volxen:

Didn't do a whole lot but did enough to not be a null read. Light.

Null

Charles:

No substantial posts.

Exquisite Crab:

No substantial posts, and they agreed with some dubious reasoning which while suspicious isn't enough for me to scumread yet.

Scum

Alice:

Alice has always been on my radar, as you've probably noticed, due to their strange way of selecting reads, as well as their rather poor justification for their behavior in RVS. They also apparently liked the confidence of Lunar Martian which I also find scummy, especially because of my read on them. Moderate.

Lunar Martian:

Previous player replaced out as soon as they were put under pressure, which rings alarm bells in my head even though I can't confirm that's why. (They also made no substantial posts.) As soon as Lunar enters, they immediately vote Charles, don't provide a reason despite having several opportunities to, and declare the game solved in Day 1, also without providing good reasoning. Every alarm bell in my head is ringing here. Strong.

VOTE: Lunar Martian for the reasons stated above.

This list is really bad overall. There's content with which to sort both the slots listed as null. I think both the people labelled scum are Town. The reasoning for Malakittens is interesting and especially poor. Apparently all you have to do to get Town read by Harumi is not "a whole lot". The reasoning on me is all pretty bad too. Those are things that happened, but there's no analysis of why any of it makes me likely to be Mafia. Actually they all seem like really strange things for Mafia to do, as I said.

It's hardly surprising that you object to my inclusion on the scum side.

My town reads are generally based on me observing people for a while and not detecting any problems; my confidence increases as they participate. As you can see, I only have a light town read on them because they didn't talk that much but still posted substantial content.

Both null reads did post but they didn't post enough for me to make a confident reading. "Insufficient data" would be a good way to describe it.

Voting people with no immediately apparent reason makes you seem like you're trying to be obstructive, which is scum behavior.
Your confidence that you knew they were scum makes you seem like you're not putting much thought into your actions, which is anti-town behavior.
You declaring Statue to be scum over voting you without accounting the possibility of bussing indicates that you're very eager to declare people scum, which is scum behavior. (All of my scumreads are formed over multiple posts.)

I hope that this post makes it clear why I suspect you.

The point is you're not doing anything to really understand my thought process, and rather than trying to analyze it you say "This could come from Mafia, therefore this person is Mafia." Mafia try to blend in and look like Town, so surface level analysis of "Mafia might do this" isn't going to be very effective. If you had instead asked me about my reasoning, I could have explained in a far greater level of detail. Obviously I'm putting on a show with my confidence, I do a lot of things to try and see how people react. Generating interactions and things for people to comment on is very useful in trying to determine whether they're Mafia.

Voting people with no apparent reason is not more likely to come from Mafia than Town I think. Mafia have reasons for their actions - they have an agenda that they're pushing. It's very easy to state false reasons as Mafia to justify your actions. Your job as Town is to try and ascertain whether people's reasons are genuine. Me voting is constructive. It generates content. It gives you something to evaluate. Me not stating a reason gives people an opportunity to ask questions and engage.
There's a difference between being confident and being cocky, and there's a difference between not thinking and not showing your work. I think if you clear your mind and re-read my posts, you'll see that there is actually a lot of reasoning expressed in my posts.
Why is it scum behavior to declare people as scum? Mafia only want to declare Town as Mafia. It would be very unlikely for a Mafia member to open the game by saying "Here is my partner, I've caught them for you." Bussing is a possibility, but Mafia only bus when there's some reason for them to do so. If you can explain why you think me as Mafia decides to make my first post in the game a naked bus vote, then I'll back off.

Anyway, I still think you're Town making a genuine effort, I just think your analysis is a bit shallow.

[Lunar Martian]

The things you don't say are as important as the things you say. Look how much discussion was generated by my opening post. I don't think you have the right mindset. Punishing people who don't conform to your norms of Town behavior is more likely to be successful in identifying unusual personality types than identifying Mafia members. I actually have 3 completed games in addition to some ongoing games (that I obviously won't be commenting on any further). You keep providing possible scenarios where I could be Mafia, but your job is not to say "this is possible, therefore it is reality". That's really bad logic. You have to analyze why my actions make more sense coming from Mafia than Town. You haven't really done that.

N.B. In my one completed Town game, I was suspected heavily and died Day 1, while calling out Town for poor play. Mafia won that game. In my two completed games as Mafia, I survived and won in one game, and in the other game no one suspected me until the tracker tracked me making the kill. So I'm capable of blending in and hiding my intentions as Mafia. I'm being pretty transparent here, and I think it's patently obvious that I'm Town.

[Lunar Martian]

Actually, I'm noticing a general pattern in your arguments. Your basic argument boils down to "there are reasons that town could perform these actions", but you fail to provide said reasoning for several of these: The one listed above, and why you declared the game "solved" despite the fact that doing so on D1 is practically impossible.

So I'd appreciate it if you moved more towards providing reasoning to your actions rather than saying "this doesn't necessarily mean you're scum", because that makes it look like you don't have better options. Just a thought.

The burden of proof is with you. Statistically, I'm probably Town just because most people are. I don't have to prove that I'm Town. I just have to find Mafia and knock down arguments that claim I'm Mafia. If your reasons for voting me are poor, then other people won't vote me. I don't particularly care whether you think I'm Mafia or not, so long as I'm able to find the actual Mafia. I know some people will take issue with that attitude, but again, I don't really care. I'm here to play the game the way I want, not the way you want. Feel free to continue to pressure me. It's worthwhile because of the way other people react to it. But you're wrong. And you really haven't presented a reason to think I could be Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

The things you don't say are as important as the things you say. Look how much discussion was generated by my opening post. I don't think you have the right mindset. Punishing people who don't conform to your norms of Town behavior is more likely to be successful in identifying unusual personality types than identifying Mafia members. I actually have 3 completed games in addition to some ongoing games (that I obviously won't be commenting on any further). You keep providing possible scenarios where I could be Mafia, but your job is not to say "this is possible, therefore it is reality". That's really bad logic. You have to analyze why my actions make more sense coming from Mafia than Town. You haven't really done that.

N.B. In my one completed Town game, I was suspected heavily and died Day 1, while calling out Town for poor play. Mafia won that game. In my two completed games as Mafia, I survived and won in one game, and in the other game no one suspected me until the tracker tracked me making the kill. So I'm capable of blending in and hiding my intentions as Mafia. I'm being pretty transparent here, and I think it's patently obvious that I'm Town.

There's one particular point I notice you aren't addressing, and it's a pretty big one for me. Let me quickly repeat it.

If you knew the town would ask for your reasoning for your vote and intended to provide it, why did you not provide it with the vote?

"It generated discussion" isn't really valid here, since the town has better things to do than waste time pressing you for reasons for everything you do. We don't have unlimited time/attention.

Please answer this point as soon as possible, since this one in particular is very non-negotiable for me.

Like I said, the things you don't say are as important as those you do. For me, generating early discussion is the key to setting up a high-information late game that allows you to expose Mafia. It really doesn't matter what people are arguing about, it matters what stances people take and how they position themselves. So by creating something for people to discuss, my post was very successful. My question to you is, again, why assume that I'm Mafia rather than asking me a probing question? By trying to understand my mindset you'll learn a lot more about my alignment than by assuming I'm Mafia. And if you really think you have better things to do with your time, go do them. You're the one who keeps attacking me for this point, I'm trying to find Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

Anyway, I think these people are Town: Harumi, Alice, Ray Frost.
I'm not sure about these people: Malakittens, volxen, Statue Surfer.
I think these people are most likely Mafia: Crab, Charles.

Some of you may be surprised to see Statue in the middle row. I still think that the posts I pointed out were really bad, however Statue has some other posts I think are much better and indicate a genuine attempt to solve. Hence Statue has a happy home in the middle row for now.

[Lunar Martian]

I think basically this comes down to a playstyle difference. I'm going to take a step back and let other people reply so we don't clog up the thread any more.

[Lunar Martian]

I see a lot has happened since my last post. So I planned to do detailed reads during weekend. I will see how it goes. Right now my top tr is Harumi and I agree on her analysis on Lunar. Well not entirely, because I am looking at something different when scumhunting. But there is high chance that Lunar is scum. I would like to see more content from Charles replacement or from crab.

My apologies for the short post, but I will be active much more during the weekend.

Hmm OK if you have different reasons for thinking I'm Mafia: what are they, and does that mean you actually don't agree with Harumi's reasoning?

[Lunar Martian]

I am still missing content from one of crab, Charles to do proper reads.

Volxen: welcome to the thread in earnest! What are your thoughts about my thoughts about crab? Your vote from the random voting stage is still on Harumi. Do you think Harumi is scummy, or is the vote there because you haven't decided where you actually want to put it?

What are your feelings about charles separate from the people currently voting him?

I think the point that you made about Crab was fair, but I still think that Alice could be scum. In particular I think that there is at least one scum among {Lunar, Crab, Charles, Alice}.

Regarding Harumi, I think that the Harumi vs Lunar exchange is very unlikely to be scum theater, with Harumi being the townier of the two slots. I am also townreading your slot, and Statue remains my strongest townread.

Mala is null for me.

Can you give us your reads on everyone other than those two?
Intersting take. I think opposite that Harumi and Lunar are not svs. Can you elaborate on that?

[Lunar Martian]

I liked volx posting up until this:

I don't want to put Lunar up to E-1 so

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

I don’t like the willingness to vote someone who’s most likely being replaced vs someone actually in the game.

That has a bad taste in my mouth.

It also feels like it's voting based on an agenda rather than solving.

[Lunar Martian]

It's been a little while, so lets spice things up a little. AliceK, who do you think is mafia?

No no no you of all people do NOT get to do this. You do NOT get to fly in here demanding stuff of people like you've been active this whole time or something.

Why did you sheep Alice at the start of the game? Why did you disappear for 5 days? Most importantly,

what are your reads?

I liked volx posting up until this:

I don't want to put Lunar up to E-1 so

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

I don’t like the willingness to vote someone who’s most likely being replaced vs someone actually in the game.

That has a bad taste in my mouth.

It also feels like it's voting based on an agenda rather than solving.

Nah, I don't see it. Volx has been relatively active and pretty townie, with questions and analysis. I see this as more of a way to FoS.

Also I don't believe Alice actually susses Lunar, because of this post:

I liked volx posting up until this:

I don't want to put Lunar up to E-1 so

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

I don’t like the willingness to vote someone who’s most likely being replaced vs someone actually in the game.

That has a bad taste in my mouth.

It also feels like it's voting based on an agenda rather than solving.

My impression is that one of crab's voters can be a Mafia with Charles. I need to look into all thread actually.

And of course Lunar is not voting Crab.

Also noteworthy is that Alice is effectively sheeping Lunar here. So huge FoS on Alice.

@Lunar Martian: I believe I asked you a question with my last post:

Since you're open to explaining things when pressed,

I'd be particularly interested in why you TR Alice.

And now I have a second question: What agenda do you think Volx is pushing with his vote on Crab? Honestly, how is that different from your vote on Charles, especially when you SR both?

Maybe you didn't see the post that was attached to (unlikely), so maybe you'll see this:

VOTE: Lunar Martian

THIS IS E-1

If you answer both, I might unvote you, depending on the answers.

***

DO NOT hammer Lunar before I respond to his answer. Just don't.

***

Volx said "I don't want to put me person at E-1." That suggests voting based on optics. I'll take a look at Alice.

[Lunar Martian]

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningless actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

EBWOP

Why?

Scums more often give reasons to meaningful actions. Even if the reason is no reason.

I don’t really think that’s a scum tell; their reasoning isn’t any better than, say, mine.

That's everything I have right now. I am sorry. Reasoning isn't really important. The fact that you want to provide a one is.

I think it was this sequence that gave me an early Town read on Alice. Her more recent posting hasn't really done much either way, so she's probably closer to null now. It's pretty clear that Alice has played before due to her familiarity with jargon, but she really hasn't said or done much at this point. She said she would be more active over the weekend, so perhaps ask me again on Monday.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar posting is ok. Right now I’m currently watching how Statue v Lunar plays out. Lunar did bring up some good points regarding Harumi’s posting with the list. that Harumi is trying to get a grip on the game, however, the reasons to be scumreading/null/townreading is kinda skewed.

I’ll probably be moving my vote soon, but right now I’m leaving it for now.

I want to see Charles’ replacement posts and if Crab gets replaced that potential replacement as well.

I hate the early Day 1 + replacement go-around because it legit kills the morale of the game.

Any update on this Mala? Could you as an SE try to help us drive the game forward? You are just coasting and vote-parking on me without really doing anything to try and sort or solve me.

[Lunar Martian]

I think the reason Volx did that is because he was afraid of scum quickhammering. Not a super good play in my opinion but I don't think it's a very reliable scum tell, so I'll just keep it in mind.

I don't like Crab's entrance that much, but I'm not really interested in a super long discourse with him since we're getting close to the deadline, so I think we'll just have to save dealing with him for D2.

I think you're right. I still think it's worth pointing out, because the post overall felt overly justified and inorganic.

[Lunar Martian]

I am pretty sure RayFrost,StatueSurfer and LunarMartial are all town.I think I will place my vote on crab.
VOTE: Exquisite Crab

Why do you think we are Town? Why do you think Crab is Mafia?

[Lunar Martian]

I am pretty sure RayFrost,StatueSurfer and LunarMartial are all town.I think I will place my vote on crab.
VOTE: Exquisite Crab

Why do you think we are Town? Why do you think Crab is Mafia?

Crab skipped 6 days avoiding difficult question. I don't think it is Town way to play the game. Showed up when you started to be attacked. You are Town, because I can't really see a scum team you could fit into. RayFrost has really rational arguments why someone is Town and he cares too much to be a scum in my opinion. I am not 100% sure about surfer, but before you showed up his iso was very decent and I can't see a reason why he would like to activate all the players as Mafia. So yeah these my reads.

I agree with all your reads, but I think I disagree with the reasoning on all of them too. Except maybe on RayFrost.

[Lunar Martian]

Everyone checked in. Cute. From the entrance posts I suspect Charles and LoneMarkhor.

I can see why he seems scum, and his response only makes me more suspicious of him.
VOTE: LoneMarkhor

This is not a good post, there's absolutely zero analysis, but it could simply be a Newbie. I need more content to evaluate properly.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar: Your vote on charles is on a slot that is going to be replaced. Are you still more confident in that vote than a vote on anybody else in the game?

Like, say, crab?

I think the votes on the two people are equivalent. It's more likely than random that each of them is Mafia, but very unlikely that they are both Mafia, and I wouldn't be shocked at this stage if they are both Town.
Setting them aside I'm fairly happy to call everyone Town other than Mala, Volxen, and Alice. Alice is a bit of a Town lean.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar: Your vote on charles is on a slot that is going to be replaced. Are you still more confident in that vote than a vote on anybody else in the game?

Like, say, crab?

I think the votes on the two people are equivalent. It's more likely than random that each of them is Mafia, but very unlikely that they are both Mafia, and I wouldn't be shocked at this stage if they are both Town.
Setting them aside I'm fairly happy to call everyone Town other than Mala, Volxen, and Alice. Alice is a bit of a Town lean.

I mean you could take any two random players in the game and say that from a pure probability standpoint, they are unlikely to be scum together because that's only one out of several different possible scumteam combinations. I don't see the point of making that argument as it doesn't take into account the actual state of the game. Aside from probability, why do you think that a Crab/Charles scumteam is less likely than any of the alternatives?

Also if I'm following you correctly, you are saying that you think the most likely scenario is either 1) one scum in {Crab, Charles} and one scum in {Volxen, Mala} or 2) the scumteam is Volxen/Mala. In the case of the former, why do you have Crab and Charles on equal footing? I could see that before Crab’s return to the game because both slots have been low on content. But I think that Crab's re-entrance to the game is worse than anything in Charles' ISO. I don't understand why you don't have more suspicion of Crab's slot.

I'm not looking at teams at all. I think it's a mistake without flips generally, and will lead to confirmation bias more likely than a correct solve. I'm purely hunting based on individual posts. And 3 posts isn't enough to really go on. I can't comment on Crab's return because there hasn't been one. Can we get a prod on Crab?

[Lunar Martian]

@mod

Crab is overdue for a prod and nearing replacement range.

[Lunar Martian]

Hey guys! I'll be reading up and giving my thoughts soon, but can it be possible for somebody to summarize for me?

Given that it's only 7 pages, I encourage you to read yourself. Not that much has happened. 7 pages shouldn't take more than 20 minutes.

[Lunar Martian]

For clarity, I'm currently at E-2 and Crab is at E-1. Please don't end the day.

[Lunar Martian]

For clarity, I'm currently at E-2 and Crab is at E-1. Please don't end the day.

UNVOTE: Lunar

Posting is better as of late.

What is your current take on my early posts, and what made you change your mind? Walk me through your progression please. Be honest, even if it feels uncomfortable or scummy. If you're Town I think I'll recognize your honesty.

[Lunar Martian]

So, obviously, I did not vote Crab yesterday, which is because I decided I wanted to see what Paopao did first.

Volx actually articulated a lot of doubts I have about Lunar that I've had swirling around a little.

First, there's the issue that Lunar's vote has been parked on Charles since he subbed in, which made some sense early, but doesn't make sense now since he apparently TRs Charles/Paopao now, even though literally nothing has changed.

The first half of #161 is pure fluff as Volxen said. And of course Lunar is going with his usual tactic of not explaining his reads. @Lunar: So I would really like to know what caused you to change your mind from {Charles, Crab} to {Volxen, MK} as your SRs.

#170, #176, and #177 are all fluff or IIoA.

For clarity, I'm currently at E-2 and Crab is at E-1. Please don't end the day.

UNVOTE: Lunar

Posting is better as of late.

What is your current take on my early posts, and what made you change your mind? Walk me through your progression please.

Be honest, even if it feels uncomfortable or scummy. If you're Town I think I'll recognize your honesty.

Something about the bolded part really rubs me the wrong way. It's like... Lunar's talking to someone that he's trying to convince

himself

is town. And MK hardly needs to be told how to explain their reads -- they joined as SE after all.


Alice's reads are also interesting... at #113 Alice says there is a high chance Lunar is scum, and then in #148 she says Lunar is town, a complete 180 with no explanation, because heaven forbid anyone in this game explain anything.

And for the sake of completeness, I'll be giving a list of my reads soon.

What makes you think my reads changed?

[Lunar Martian]

I stand ready with a hammer in case, but I'm assuming it isn't. Crab should claim if Crab decides to show up.

[Lunar Martian]

If a replacement joins, do not claim as the timer will be extended. Just read and try to solve.

[Lunar Martian]

Depending on what ^ looks like I may ask for a claim after 24 hours. I guess someone else could state intent too.

[Lunar Martian]

There's one hour remaining and I'm a bit nervous.

@mod:

The following vote is conditional on the deadline not being extended: VOTE: Crab

I might not be around after this, and don't want to risk the deadline passing.

Presumably the deadline will be paused since PaoPao is in prod range, Harumi is in prod range, and Crab hasn't posted in 5 days and definitely needs replacing.

The vote on Crab has not been counted. VOTE: Paopao on behalf of Lunar Martian.

[Lunar Martian]

There's one hour remaining and I'm a bit nervous.

@mod:

The following vote is conditional on the deadline not being extended: VOTE: Crab

I might not be around after this, and don't want to risk the deadline passing.

Presumably the deadline will be paused since PaoPao is in prod range, Harumi is in prod range, and Crab hasn't posted in 5 days and definitely needs replacing.

The vote on Crab has not been counted. VOTE: Paopao on behalf of Lunar Martian.

So much for democracy! My vote was stolen from me! (But just kidding that's fine, thanks!)

[Lunar Martian]

Further down, Lunar is completely misrepresenting and walling and general "oh my god you need to flip." Scum, scum, scum.

Quote it?

[Lunar Martian]

Without you telling me what you think the posts mean, I can't defend myself. Making a lot of posts or long posts is hardly AI. If anything me being very active suggests I'm Town based on meta you've seen. Also, how is me being aggressive Mafia indicative?

[Lunar Martian]

Without you telling me what you think the posts mean, I can't defend myself. Making a lot of posts or long posts is hardly AI. If anything me being very active suggests I'm Town based on meta you've seen. Also, how is me being aggressive Mafia indicative?

Aggressive and

defensive

is what I'm looking at here.

I don't think I can be both aggressive and defensive...

[Lunar Martian]

I'm willing to hammer, especially since it's not clear what the deadline is.

[Lunar Martian]

That was my formal intent. I'm signing off soon and because we are past the 24 hours since replacement and I won't be on in the next 12 hours, I need to hammer before signing off.

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: cook

its a symbolic vote.

[Lunar Martian]

WOW THAT'S SO RUDE.

[Lunar Martian]

An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: Mala

[Lunar Martian]

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

Normally I agree with NK analysis later in the game, but please explain to me what type of information we are going to get out of two slots that were null and another who didn’t post?

I just feel like Lunar tried to set this up to frame people, but ofc it’s against me, but he still hasn’t answered why me instead of the other SEs

Why you? It was a low information guess. People's reactions around the vote have been super informative though. When I said both, I was referring to both Mafia, not both SEs. Either way, not a Town tell. Town has no extra reason to not know the number of SEs. More to follow shortly.

[Lunar Martian]

For example: AliceK is pretty obviously Town. Mala is looking very Town.

[Lunar Martian]

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

Normally I agree with NK analysis later in the game, but please explain to me what type of information we are going to get out of two slots that were null and another who didn’t post?

I just feel like Lunar tried to set this up to frame people, but ofc it’s against me, but he still hasn’t answered why me instead of the other SEs

I do really dislike the second line here. I hadn't posted at all, it's not like I was ignoring you, I just wasn't online. Killing a slot that had done absolutely nothing and was probably going to be a VT implies they were going after Krazy, which suggests a personal connection to Krazy, which implies that an SE wanted Krazy dead, because it's unlikely that a newbie knows Krazy well enough to be concerned.

[Lunar Martian]

WOW THAT'S SO RUDE.

Kind of a weird thing to say.

An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?

This is either a townslip or you not actually paying attention, because there's

three

SEs (volxen is the third). And... I also don't understand the logic behind why you think a SE in particular would've killed him.

Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

Well, I'll indulge myself for a moment anyway, because this kill makes absolutely no sense. Multiple people said they thought this slot was scummy (and I don't remember anyone saying they thought they were town), so why kill them? Me and you were townread by just about everybody, so why wasn't one of us targeted?

IMO the possibilities are:
1) the scumteam is just newbies and decided to just kill a random townie
2) the actual townies are so completely on the wrong track that they're comfortable keeping us alive
3) the scumteam deliberately wanted to cause this kind of WIFOMy analysis by killing someone SRed (kind of ties into the above, since both would likely require skilled players)

and in light of that I'll drop it for the time being.

Now, my reads list:

Townreads:

Nobody because I'm paranoid

Townleans:

RayFrost: helpful to town, good points, good analysis, solid questioning
Volxen: good questioning, good analysis
Harumi: pro-town behavior, good questioning

Null:

AliceK: Bad reads, waffles constantly, but has started acting more pro-town of late.

Scumleans:

Malakittens: Little questioning, mediocre analysis (imo), feels like fake activity

Scumreads:

Lunar Martian: Bad entrances to both days, a lot of IIoA/statistical analysis posts, not a ton of actual analysis, mediocre questioning

An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?

I played some games with Krazy and in some games that he modded back in 2019. I would nightkill a townread player from day one over Krazy.

I do agree with Frost that this is weird, and worded oddly specifically.

Statue assume I'm Town for a minute. Who is your pick for the Mafia team?

[Lunar Martian]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

[Lunar Martian]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

[Lunar Martian]

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

[Lunar Martian]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually. I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.

I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

[Lunar Martian]

I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.

Doubt it. Explain though?

[Lunar Martian]

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

Would they make some obvious that they are playing with the same agenda? Both of them were pushing you Day 1.

I mean that's pure WIFOM. I don't have any reason to think they are partners. I just suspect both of them. Like I said, I think there's an SE in the mix.

[Lunar Martian]

That's not a realistic possibility. It's never a small-brained play to kill a blank slot. It's some sort of big brain move.

[Lunar Martian]

Statue and if I'm Mafia, who am I partnered with?

[Lunar Martian]

I'm pretty set on a PoE of Volxen, Statue, and Harumi. Everyone else is Town.

[Lunar Martian]

@StatueSurfer: This was probably a lapse of judgement on my part. You are correct in that I should do that more, but unfortunately I can't really say much else beyond "whoops".

@Lunar: I don't like how I suddenly am on your scum list with no explanation, not even a "per RayFrost".

I'm going to dissect all of Lunar's D2 posts when I get the chance. I would provide a readlist but since Lunar is at E-one it's probably not a good idea unless something changes.

Your argument for suspecting me is silly. Why would Mafia be any more likely than Town to not write an essay every time their mind changes. I started thinking you were scummy before Ray posted, but that case is very good and lays it out well.

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: Harumi

That's E-1.

My PoE is because: Xolxen for the SE theory, but the other SEs have done things that make me much more confident in them being Town. Statue for a number of really odd posts today, and Harumi for being opportunistic and feeling icky every time they post. Look at the long wall above this, for example. A few questions are asked, and they take the time to respond to every single one of my posts to try and look busy, but that entire post has 0 analysis of why I'm likely to be Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

Why are you pushing a narrative that I learned nothing from my questions despite not asking me what I learned? Can you not see my reads changing after I say that? I have lots of thoughts. Most of them are wrong. The more I detail my reasoning in the thread, the more Mafia can latch onto the bad thoughts and tell me they're good. Instead, I share my vote, and people can agree/disagree.

[Lunar Martian]

Well, I might as well give my overall analysis.

Most of your posts are meaningless noise.
You ask a lot of questions which I doubt actually tell you anything.
You come up with a theory with rather poor reasoning and refuse to change it despite the fact that it's unlikely to be true.
You

constantly

perform actions without explaining them.
You also have said twice now that "this is informative" without saying what you've learned.

All of this makes me feel like you're not trying to solve the game. (And I did bring all of those up in the previous post, but admittedly they weren't super clear.)
I feel now would be a good time to respond to these.

Most of this also isn't analysis, it's merely statements about your feelings about my playstyle. None of it is AI.

[Lunar Martian]

Your playstyle is anti-town. Anti-town people should be executed. This is why I am focusing on your playstyle.

Also, when people don't share their reasoning, it's easy to assume it's because there is no good reason--or, rather, because this reason is tied to them being scum.

Scum take the easy path. You being unable to follow my thought process doesn't mean there isn't a logical thought process to follow. I really dislike your lazy assumption that I'm scum rather than an attempt to solve me. That said, it is suggestive that you are new/bad Town rather than Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

Wrong. The burden is on you to prove your accusation. Statistically, everyone is probably Town. You have to make a case why people aren't Town. Now you're just being ridiculous.

[Lunar Martian]

I start to think that Lunar/Harumi is tvt.

Same.

[Lunar Martian]

Well, yeah, people should prove their own scumreads but you're apparently saying that I should find town justification for your actions??? For some reason???

I mean... you should look for both right? If you're Town you're not out to get everyone else on the playerlist. You're trying to sort everyone else. So yeah, you should be looking for evidence that goes both ways and consider things that might indicate that people are Town as well as things that indicate they may be Mafia. I'm not saying it's your job to prove I'm Town. I'm saying it's your job to consider the possibility, at least internally.

[Lunar Martian]

Volxen there are a few reasons I don't engage with you much. Your posts are long, dry, and hard to read. Most of the questions you ask are things I've already addressed or seem rhetorical. You are misrepresenting me so badly that most of the things you say aren't worth responding to.

[Lunar Martian]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

[Lunar Martian]

Logically, it is correct that anyone who knows who Krazy is outside of the context of the game would have motive. But any time someone suggests an alternative motive for the nightkill, you could just counter with “no, I know I’m right, an SE has to be scum”. You talk here about internal processing, but I don’t see any evidence that you are actually thinking about the nightkill, which would include giving serious consideration to the other possible explanations for why Krazy was nightkilled which have been brought up repeatedly. I don’t think that you have engaged on this issue in good faith, and I don’t think that town!you spends this entire day phase talking about how at least one of three slots must be scum because of the nightkill alone.

This for example is such a dishonest reading of what I've posted that it's bordering on a straight-up lie.

[Lunar Martian]

Me and Harumi both have 3 votes, so E-1.

[Lunar Martian]

Cook needs a prod and Mala is one hour away from needing a prod. Presumably the deadline will be extended? I really prefer statue or Volxen over Harumi, but currently there isn't time to flashwagon them most likely.

[Lunar Martian]

I see Cook is dead and that bah post was just really late. Mala will still need a prod though. If Harumi is Mafia then Statue is certainly Town, while if Harumi is Town that makes me very confident in Statue and Volxen being the team.

[Lunar Martian]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.

I didn't answer because I've already talked about it. They might have said something that Krazy would know is a tell, or Krazy might be good at reading them. For sure no newbie would have any particular reason to kill Krazy.

[Lunar Martian]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.

I didn't answer because I've already talked about it. They might have said something that Krazy would know is a tell, or Krazy might be good at reading them. For sure no newbie would have any particular reason to kill Krazy.

And you're saying that a scum team seeing a replacement before they've decided on a kill and immediately decided that this player, who has not said

anything

in this game, is the most threatening person in this game? You're saying this is more likely than a misplay, PR hunting, or any of those alternative theories?

At this point you're not even bothering to read through and understand what I'm saying. I'm tired of talking in circles with you. You ask a question, I answer it, then you go back and ask about the other half of what I said. It's exhausting.

I'm VT.

[Lunar Martian]

What’s really bad is reading these last few pages but I can’t help to think might be a TvT, but idk since Lunar feels like they are spiraling

Yeah I forgot to move my vote for a while, but I did move it eventually. I did a whole bunch in the intervening period.

[Lunar Martian]

This flips Town with 1 scum on the wagon I bet.

[Lunar Martian]

I still disagree that I'm playing in an antitown manner. There's a difference between being anti-town and being atypical.

[Lunar Martian]

VT.

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: Statue

[Lunar Martian]

Frost hasn't posted for over 30 hours by my count, so I'll see if I can change that.

VOTE: RayFrost

This isnt how you scumhunt.

[Lunar Martian]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm with RayFrost. All we get from a no-lim is Mala dead.

[Lunar Martian]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and me being clear and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

[Lunar Martian]

@Statue I'm really not looking for associatives without flips. It's distracting.

[Lunar Martian]

This took an inordinate amount of time to bring out but whatever. yeah, I get work.

And kind of unnecessary to say you aren't CCing when you're claiming VT but w/e.

UNVOTE:

This is really sleazy shading.

[Lunar Martian]

Actually volxen's PoE means 2 scum in: Statue, Alice, RayFrost. I'm inclined to just say that confirms volxen as Mafia and say it's Statue and volxen.

[Lunar Martian]

The reason it confirms volxen as Mafia is that I don't think Alice or Ray are Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and me being clear and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

The fact that you didn't target anyone on night one isn't a mechanical clear FMPOV. It clears you from being a roleblocker, but you could be a goon and your partner both roleblocked and performed the nightkill on night one.

So with a no-elimination, I would be tracking from a pool of four players on night three, but we would be guaranteed to not lose during the night phase.

I mean it's possible, but unlikely, since the roleblocker multi-tasking would mean a tracker would get a full guilty. In any event you'd have to be pushing me and Statue as the Mafia team and you aren't doing that, so you're still Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

So you say in the same post that:

1. There are two scum in {Me, Alice, Frost} because of Volx's post
2. Volxen is confirmed scum

What's really funny here is that you apparently forgot about your earlier PoE of {Me, Harumi, Volxen} (this post), which I say because you never referenced it today.

And I love that this post came three minutes after your post saying you didn't want to do associative reads, because I guess you immediately realized how scummy that post was.

You are clearly not understanding what I said. The question is whether it happened intentionally.

[Lunar Martian]

Actually volxen's PoE means 2 scum in: Statue, Alice, RayFrost. I'm inclined to just say that confirms volxen as Mafia and say it's Statue and volxen.

I actually can see anyone as Mafia. Ray is my primary suspect I would like to vote tbh. Doesn't really like his Day 1, had a lot of interactions but avoided doing reads.

This is a really bad post. You need to elaborate please.

[Lunar Martian]

I am very sure that vote count is wrong.

For one thing it says the deadline expired over a week ago.

[Lunar Martian]

Volxen is trying to keep as many options open as possible for the scumteam. All his logic explains why various teams are options, but no teams are really ruled out. That isn't gamesolving.

[Lunar Martian]

Are you going to answer my questions, Lunar?

Why does the fact that I’m not pushing Lunar/Statue as the scumteam impact your read on me?

Lunar, what do you make of the fact that Ray and Alice have mutual suspicions of one another?

No and nothing, really. Why should it be odd that two people are suspicious of each other?

[Lunar Martian]

I could also see Alice and Statue. I think I'm probably only voting statue here though.

[Lunar Martian]

deadline in an hour though, we kinda need a wagon here.

[Lunar Martian]

Any chance of a deadline extension?

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: statue

[Lunar Martian]

GG. I was confident in volxen but I don't think I would have gotten RayFrost.

[Lunar Martian]

I was mocked so much for my SE theory, too

[Lunar Martian]

I was mocked so much for my SE theory, too

It would have been a good theory if you didn’t act how you acted coming out of N1. It almost looked like you planted the kill.

—

Gg ya’ll sorry I was a horrible player this game. I was trying to play cautiously with being a PR as I didn’t want to come out too strong, but the activity level killed me. Part of me was wondering if Volx fake claimed knowing that I jailed him and it turns out I was right, but couldn’t pinpoint the partner. I don’t know if I would have suspected ray until late game tbh.

I mean my play makes sense and was correct. I'm not going to apologize for it.