Newbie 2038: Elements [Game Over]

[Spangled]

TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling. Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

Oh, it seems you disagree, sorry.

Why do you reckon JDye’s town?

[Spangled]

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.

[Spangled]

Okay also 72 you’ve been pressing me for a readslist, fair — I mean I did make one in my very first post but I should have made another after my second part, yeah — here’s a sketch

Mizzy
safebet/FF/JDye
Egix
72

As to the order of safebet, 72 and JDye, I’m putting JDye there and not up top after Mizzy because I haven’t looked back at them enough, especially recently.
I actually feel like Egix has been fairly townie in a few posts and I’m getting a town tone, but reading through his ISO I see a few could-be-inconsistencies — his little push on 72 around my entrance — that I’m way too tired to look at now; I’ll dig into them tomorrow.
safebet, I reread their ISO and I reckon they’ve been fairly townie. A bit of consensus-ing going on (‘oh who should we lynch next’ kinds of posts) but I feel like that’s quite natural for a newbie, one kind of getting used to being in a town; I’m sure I’ve done it — and so not super AI.
FF — I feel like their meta-ing is quite townie, even if I don’t necessarily agree with it. Reminder to look at their meta-bit on Egix and ISO them in general.

72 I’ve scumread a little less, which I’m, not

worried

about but it’s strange because, they’ve been agreeing with me lately, if only a little; has that caused my read on them to change? I need to find time to examine his ISO, just whenever I do I can’t be bothered or I’m way too tired to be thinking about it — like now, funnily enough. I felt like I had a revelation the night I wrote my catch-up — he’s scum and here’s this brilliant insight! see this post and this post and this post — but the feeling kind of disappeared with sleep, so I’m just not sure; did I actually see something conclusive or not? Tomorrow; this post is a reminder; tomorrow.

[Spangled]

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.

Agh it’s difficult. It would suck so much if we lost masons, especially. Maybe... if there are masons claim VT? That could work, I guess; then we know that there are masons but not who they are. But that leaves space open for scum to claim masons in a crucial moment and just WIFOMs the game up so much, which doesn’t tend to help ‘cause it just gums up logical sequences and workings.

[Spangled]

I want to talk a little more about Mizzy — the fact that they’ve sort of slipped into the area of UTR points to them, I think, actually being town, because it means scum have just sort of acquiesced to the consensus forming, which I can definitely see happening here; not the fact that they’re UTR — which I mean is a reason to consider them town, to a degree; how can we all be wrong? that said, I’ve seen all-but-UTR scum; see emps in the game I linked — but the nature of them becoming UTR, not one person then another agreeing but some people agreeing in a sort of implicit fashion, I guess.

Agh I’m probably talking rubbish here good night. FF I know you said you wanted to interact with me; please shoot me questions. I can’t promise to be always around, of course, but the worst of my V/LA is over and I

should

be around pretty often tomorrow.

[Spangled]

Okay also 72 you’ve been pressing me for a readslist, fair — I mean I did make one in my very first post but I should have made another after my second part, yeah — here’s a sketch

Mizzy
safebet/FF/JDye
Egix
72

As to the order of safebet, 72 and JDye, I’m putting JDye there and not up top after Mizzy because I haven’t looked back at them enough, especially recently.
I actually feel like Egix has been fairly townie in a few posts and I’m getting a town tone, but reading through his ISO I see a few could-be-inconsistencies — his little push on 72 around my entrance — that I’m way too tired to look at now; I’ll dig into them tomorrow.
safebet, I reread their ISO and I reckon they’ve been fairly townie. A bit of consensus-ing going on (‘oh who should we lynch next’ kinds of posts) but I feel like that’s quite natural for a newbie, one kind of getting used to being in a town; I’m sure I’ve done it — and so not super AI.
FF — I feel like their meta-ing is quite townie, even if I don’t necessarily agree with it. Reminder to look at their meta-bit on Egix and ISO them in general.

72 I’ve scumread a little less, which I’m, not

worried

about but it’s strange because, they’ve been agreeing with me lately, if only a little; has that caused my read on them to change? I need to find time to examine his ISO, just whenever I do I can’t be bothered or I’m way too tired to be thinking about it — like now, funnily enough. I felt like I had a revelation the night I wrote my catch-up — he’s scum and here’s this brilliant insight! see this post and this post and this post — but the feeling kind of disappeared with sleep, so I’m just not sure; did I actually see something conclusive or not? Tomorrow; this post is a reminder; tomorrow.

okay the 72-feeling didn’t quite go away with morning, fair, but still I’m sure you see what I mean

[safebet222]

Why do you reckon JDye’s town?

I answered before. I've not wavered on my read of JDye.

Right now I want interaction. Especially with Spangled, but that will have to wait until he's back.

Do you have any questions for me? You have my attention.

Can you talk about your current take on JDye and 72?

JDye has been notably absent all day. Skimming his ISO again, its weird that he chose to tunnel 72. Make up with him then check out. It seems off. I'm curious to know what you think of JDye now.

Looking more at JDye... It seems off because I think he was deflated about the 1v1. Probably not AI, just off cause he was done with the game at that point

[safebet222]

Before that, I saw that JDye/72 1v1 as mostly TvT. Don't see why scum would choose to get in a pissing match with 72 for so long.

[fferyllt]

Up past midnight. :/

But, 72 metadive done.

72offsuit

Town
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=84499 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=84118 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=84085 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=84399 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83106 (Newbie)

Scum
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83923 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?t=82578 (Mini Normal - replaced out early day 2)

The two scum game ISOs were different. One is a Newbie game and the other is a Mini Normal (13 players) which is probably the source of the differences.

In the Newbie scum game there were far fewer text speak type abbreviations compared to here. Sentences were longer, and few abbreviations. And there was much less punch in the word choices. The posts come off less aggressive sounding than his town Newbie games. As he was under pressure his posts got shorter and shorter.

In the Mini Normal 72 replaced out, but was in the game long enough to make > 50 posts. Many of the posts were very long. He did some cursory meta research on a player, something didn't notice in his newbie games. He did detailed reads lists and detailed ISOs. There were lots of quotewalls, and fewer interactive posts. Very few posts that looked like phoneposting.

Town Newbie games vary somewhat. Sometimes he's very playful in RVS phase. Sometimes he steps up into the SE role and explains theory, links the wiki, etc. I think he feels more comfortable phone posting in town games (or his schedule varies over time). He seems to start games with the assumption that nobody is town, and lets players prove themselves, or not. This leads to a lot of false positives.

I didn't notice a lengthy 1v1 like he had with JDye, so I didn't see the same degree of aggravated looking posts as here. He bounces around from scumread to scumread and back. Wagon building looks pragmatic.

So yeah, this looks like Town 72

.

ehhhhh I see what you’re saying, especially on shorter posts under pressure and less phone-posting as scum, but two scum games hardly makes a scum meta, and scum can emulate their townplay; this could be the scum game where 72 Gets Really Good.

And I’ve been duped by scum (well, one scum) emulating their townplay whose town metas are basically ‘be aggressive and illogical’, and I was completely fooled up until they repped out, and even then I didn’t think that they were scum, in fact I held them as a very strong townread the whole game, until wiser heads prevailed and I was convinced by someone else who I townread even more; until nearing the very end. I mean obviously I’m not townreading 72 here, but you see what I’m saying here?

Anyway, I just don’t think this is conclusive.

I see what you're saying but it's not terribly convincing to me.

Town meta is the baseline. Scum meta differentiates. It wasn't nearly conclusive enough for my tastes, but I've accurately read players for whom I had only town meta before.

I also don't like to look at games from too far back in time. Players learn, evolve, and settle into their playstyles. Recent games are better predictors than earlier ones.

To be sure I understand, though. You agree his play here doesn't look a lot like his two scum games, but you think his play here should be within his scum range?

[fferyllt]

All the more reason for you to kick FF. FF is the one leading us doan a garden path with useless meta analysis that is going to convince noone.

I'm using meta as a crosscheck for myself -- does meta support the read I'm developing in

this

game. And, I'll refer/update in future games.

bucket

[fferyllt]

VOTE: Spangled

Your play trying to convince us to elim in a rush at the end of yesterday coupled with your massclaim advocacy doesn't look good.

The reason I pushed 72’s lynch at the end of the day was because I thought he was scum, and I saw no value in the logic people were pushing for a no-lynch. It was at the end of the day because... that’s when I was around; that’s when I found time for mafia; that’s why it was a rush.

As to massclaim advocacy today — first, I’ve only made like two posts about it, and they’ve been explaining why

I

think it’d be a good idea; I’ve hardly been going door-to-door. Second, y’know, I did uh explain my reasons maybe you could look at them?

Do you agree with them or disagree?

What are your thoughts about him now?

[safebet222]

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.

Agh it’s difficult. It would suck so much if we lost masons, especially. Maybe... if there are masons claim VT? That could work, I guess; then we know that there are masons but not who they are. But that leaves space open for scum to claim masons in a crucial moment and just WIFOMs the game up so much, which doesn’t tend to help ‘cause it just gums up logical sequences and workings.

Are you still considering a no kill gambit? It's the only way masons show up. You're not making sense.

[safebet222]

Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.

In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.

Unless someone else wants to get into it with Spangled on this point, I'd rather not except to say what he wrote is not accurate and should not be used as a basis for deciding.

[safebet222]

@mizzy and @egix lets get some votes down before we get too far along.

[Egix96]

@mizzy and @egix lets get some votes down before we get too far along.

VOTE: Spangled

[Umlaut]

MURDERCAT replaces JDye. Please welcome him!

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 3.4

Iron, ₂₆Fe

— transition metal, standard atomic weight 55.85, group 8, period 4, d-block

Spangled

(2): safebet222, Egix96

fferyllt

(1): 72offsuit

Not voting

(4): MURDERCAT, Mizzytastic, fferyllt, Spangled

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-11-24 03:25:00)

Notes:

• Spangled is V/LA for the week.

[MURDERCAT]

Hey friends! Catching up later

[MURDERCAT]

Someone give me a rundown of what we know

[72offsuit]

Hi murdercat.
A breath of fresh air.
A new broom to sweep clean.
More importantly someone who I think i can read and someone who can towntell.

[72offsuit]

Day 1 was town vs town wagons bw Pig and muh. Pig was kicked.
No kill night 1.
No claims as yet, FF basically softed that she is not a PR.
C4/FF asked for muh to claim drspite no hammer intent on the slot
Muh was killed n2.
Lots of lurking and town apathy throughout.

[safebet222]

Spangled is at E-2.

[MURDERCAT]

Do we know what's going on with the no kills?

[MURDERCAT]

Was there no day 2 elim?

[MURDERCAT]

I came to breathe life into this game