Newbie 2098 | Manila Sound | Day 4

[furtiveglance]

Idk why RR is thinking one of us HAS to be mafia, apart from that they already thought I was mafia.

[furtiveglance]

What I'd probably do days 2 and 3 is vote RR into Alex, and if there's still mafia left get Take out.

[furtiveglance]

Well, thanks for reading this notes PT of mine.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't expect you to flip red but it seems options are limited.

Nobody wanted to switch to RR and dragging the day out is just anti-town.

[furtiveglance]

Are you here to kill me

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't really want to, no.

I also want to wait for Sara to give some thoughts on some things. If you could really town it up while we wait for Sara then that would be fantastic.

[furtiveglance]

Town town town town town. Town town. Town town.

[wizardastronaut]

I don't reach the same conclusions as RR, but do like the direction it is leading none-the-less. I think that furtive has been the more obvious elimination for a while now so if furtive = town, RR = mafia its not

that

hard to imagine that BBT or Sara (or UnFoy?) were mafia who were comfortable waiting it out and making town do the miselim. (How BBT's new intent factors into this I need to ponder.) But I suppose I can buy that UnFoy, Froggo, Alex, Rat are the more likely partners with RR on this world. (Maybe not UnFoy? I'm not entirely sure where to place UnFoy in this reasoning.)

If furtive = mafia, RR = town I still think furtive's partner has nerves of steel for not joining with me earlier. (And would be near incomprehensible if they are someone currently voting furtive and still didn't flop with RR finally making E-1.) I guess Sara would be the most likely partner? And they did hint at liking the froggo/Rr scum-pair a while before actually acting it, only doing so once BBT did. I had been pondering what BBT/furtive world might look like one they hopped over (they were also the first to unvote furtive) but BBT's recent declaration of intent messes with that. (Though I suppose they could have been trying to give their furtive partner one last chance and now given up since nobody no the furtive wagon has given any indication of considering changing.)

I guess if furtive = mafia, RR = mafia that explains the lack of buy-in on my furtive defense and lack of hammers. But this seems unlikely.
----
Hopefully the above makes sense. I'm low on sleep at the moment and did several times get the analysis flipped when writing this. (e.g. I started writing this with some wordier version "Wait does this mean you town read me RR? Cool!" But no, RR's theory from a town!RR perspective would put me high on the list of suspected furtive partners.)

[wizardastronaut]

Town town town town town. Town town. Town town.

Lol.

Any grand theories on who the RR partner is? I dunno that your RR/wiz theory is the most convincing at the moment, haha.

[furtiveglance]

It's Alex. Look at Alex again, the TRs were misplaced earlier.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Wiz, what are

your

thoughts on things? Instead of throwing out multiple scenarios of this and that, what do you actually think?

[furtiveglance]

Look at this progression from Alex - 258, 330, 640.

258 - Radical Rat is at the bottom of the readslist.
330 - votes me instead, voting with RR.
640 - just casually chatting about the game with RR, that person they know from their PT.

[furtiveglance]

Btw, I asked RR about their reasoning as to why I'm a mafia PR with wiz as my Goon, no response.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

It's Alex. Look at Alex again, the TRs were misplaced earlier.

This is something I've been thinking about. I think scum get town read a lot because they point out town reads and can explain them. This is a very easy thing to do as scum because of the extra information they have.

If I take out Alex's early posting about the UnFoy/Froggo thing being town/town then there isn't much left to town read them for? I did like their catch up posts but I always tend to read catch up posts as town and I don't really know why.

It feels like they have been absent for a good chunk of the day but not absent enough to draw too much attention. Like a sweet spot for scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hmm, Alex using wagon composition for avoiding an RR vote has got my attention now as well.

Alex/RR is absolutely possible

[wizardastronaut]

My thoughts haven't really changed. (And arguing too forcefully has only ever hurt furtive it seems.)
a) I town read the infamous prismo post and the fact that nobody ever joined my defense for SOOO LOOOONG.
b) The nature on furtive having hopped in directly in the hot seat makes it a hard to read much into their behavior since so much of it is just self preservation. So pretty neutral there. I do feel emotionally bad for them hopping in only to likely be eliminated.
c) My top guess for mafia partner in scum!rr world is froggo, but I'll be curious to look back through and ponder furtive's read on Alex.
d) If both rr and furtive are town, maybe you are mafia? Voting both directions to get on everyone's good side?

[Radical Rat]

Btw, I asked RR about their reasoning as to why I'm a mafia PR with wiz as my Goon, no response.

I've already explained that it's because wizard's defense of you is way too intense, even for normal defending of a scum partner. Something made them incredibly desperate to avoid you getting eliminated, and you being the PR makes the most sense to me.

[Radical Rat]

Look at this progression from Alex - 258, 330, 640.

258 - Radical Rat is at the bottom of the readslist.
330 - votes me instead, voting with RR.
640 - just casually chatting about the game with RR, that person they know from their PT.

This is actually an interesting point, and something I didn't catch.
It's very similar to the reasoning on Prismo, though in Prismo's case it all being in the same post makes it worse, since there's no room for genuine read progression.

Still, in the extremely unlikely event you flip green, this will be worth looking into.

[furtiveglance]

Btw, I asked RR about their reasoning as to why I'm a mafia PR with wiz as my Goon, no response.

I've already explained that it's because wizard's defense of you is way too intense, even for normal defending of a scum partner. Something made them incredibly desperate to avoid you getting eliminated, and you being the PR makes the most sense to me.

This is so lazy and level 1. No town thinks like this, it's just what RR thinks town thinks like.

[Radical Rat]

Alright, so why do you think he defended your slot so hard, having just made an incredibly suspicious post?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

RR, why has that Furtive read on Alex not effected your read on Furtive at all?

[wizardastronaut]

Since I have my votes notes and we are voting Alex, here are alex's votes again.

Alexcellent (SE):

-11, vote Prismo
-79, vote Take (dislikes a read on froggo)
-330, vote Prismo ("Here's our D1 elim, people")

Something that immediately pops out is how few voting actions this is compared to other people. I think they and Sara are the only people to only have been on one "meaningful" wagon, could be lurking? (The definition of "meaningful" here is presumably very subjective.)

[wizardastronaut]

Lol. discussing alex. Not voting them.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Another good point. Alex has been very 'sticky' with his reads, not reevaluating reads or showing any real critical thinking.

[Radical Rat]

RR, why has that Furtive read on Alex not effected your read on Furtive at all?

Well, I'm still fairly confident that scum would have hammered furtive by now if he were Town. I still think Prismo's post was worse than Alex's potentially genuine progression, and Wizard's unnatural levels of defense/trust make both slots look worse as well.

So yeah, it's a decent point, but one decent point does not undo the rest of the game.