Unless I'm missing something, i don't think so? Let's say they both shot hiraki, infinity can have pulled the trigger on one and the sk do the other. I don't think it actually helps narrow it downIn post 1647, Hiraki wrote:Doesn't that also make the SK and mafia pool very obvious and limits their choices?In post 1643, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Doctors only stop 1 kill, are you accounting for that? There's no incentive for Mafia to shoot in elim pool when they and sk can just force any kill through.In post 1566, Klick wrote:If we don't hit SK, Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.
The kill target is just going to be whoever Aisa is supposed to heal.
Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame
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Alianna She/HerDeath by 1000 PagetopsShe/Her
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Cat Scratch Fever she/herJack of All Tradesshe/her
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Cat Scratch Fever she/herJack of All Tradesshe/her
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Cat Scratch Fever she/herJack of All Tradesshe/her
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Why are you voting for me for this post?In post 1645, Klick wrote:
VOTE: CSFIn post 1643, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Doctors only stop 1 kill, are you accounting for that? There's no incentive for Mafia to shoot in elim pool when they and sk can just force any kill through.In post 1566, Klick wrote:If we don't hit SK, Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.
The kill target is just going to be whoever Aisa is supposed to heal.
Also we would've just limmed a VT claim-
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Hiraki Survivor
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???????????????????????????????????????In post 1652, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:It does limit their choices, but this plan isn't very effective at protecting conf towns, which is what it's being billed as-
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Hiraki Survivor
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They already said that they're not revealing who they protect - which is the correct action. So either town gets another mis-elim and mafia/SK gambles on an already losing hand (both factions down to one on Day 3) or mafia/SK doesn't do that and has to shoot doctors. They could even shoot one doctor (assuming both are real) by way of not knowing which one will hit which one and then the other becomes very obvious in D5 because they're not dead.
Klick & I are not the important confirmed townies right now.-
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Hiraki Survivor
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Cat Scratch Fever she/herJack of All Tradesshe/her
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BlueBloodedToffee Survivor
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Cat Scratch Fever she/herJack of All Tradesshe/her
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BlueBloodedToffee Survivor
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Cat Scratch Fever she/herJack of All Tradesshe/her
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Cat Scratch Fever she/herJack of All Tradesshe/her
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BlueBloodedToffee Survivor
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivor
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Lucian He/HimGoonHe/Him
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I'm sorry, what. Unless your argument is that I'm Mafia, I don't evenIn post 1634, Gamma Emerald wrote:This feels like his main concern is avoiding a Doc loopknowwhether we have a Doc loop right now. (Fun fact, it's likely we don't, because 2.7% is not very likely.)
If your argument is that I am Mafia... Then me being stuck in final 3 with Infinity and Aisa would be a wet dream. It is very likely the paranoia would set in and they'd vote each other. 90+% chance one of them is scum. I'd jump on the idea of a Doc loop here.I, too, have a destiny.-
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Lucian He/HimGoonHe/Him
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For the record, what I did is: knowing that we must live in DDMVxxx, I looked to find what the odds are of the xxx being DDx.In post 1640, Aisa wrote:
This doesn't matter right now, but for future reference I'm pretty sure Lucian's calculations already take into account the fact there are only two possible setups (or only a few possible setups).In post 1639, Infinity 324 wrote:VOTE: csf
despite our immediate reaction to the cc, i think aisa is probably town.2.7% isn't really the probability of having 2 doctors, since the only other option is a specific setup. it's still unlikely, but probably the world we live in.
I ran my own calculations assuming that DDDDMVT and DDMVTTT are the only possible setups and got a 1.96% probability of DDDDMVT and 98.04% of DDMVTTT.
The letter D is given for numbers 66-75. Considering the numbers are randed 1-100, that means there's a 10% chance for any one letter to be a D. There are three letters being "randed" here, and exactly two have to be D.
Punch all of that into a binominal probability calculator, the result is 0.027.I, too, have a destiny.-
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Hiraki Survivor
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No - not really. If both doctors die tonight, that would be a success.In post 1657, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Oh i see we're trying to protect the doctor. All right i think i get it although I'm not particularly convinced but with 18 hours left, time is probably better spent arguing about other things-
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Hiraki Survivor
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This is partially why I think Gamma is best for today.In post 1664, Infinity 324 wrote:the thing is that's literally how gamma plays as town-
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Hiraki
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Lucian He/HimGoonHe/Him
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Wait, I'm dumb. The final letter cannot be M (because then we'd have Masons instead of an IC). Can't be V anyway since then Klick wouldn't be hunting for an SK. And assuming no Town Power is currently fakeclaiming...
It's even lower than 2.7%. Lemme see if I can remember my highschool math classes.I, too, have a destiny.-
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Hiraki Survivor
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Lucian He/HimGoonHe/Him
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I got 1.5% now for the odds of DDT being the final three letters, BUT. That's assuming all other worlds are equally likely, and we know we can't live in a few of those worlds. (Mxx, for example.)
Okay, I give up. Will leave this as an exercise for myself for later, as I don't think the exact number is too important right now.I, too, have a destiny.-
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Alianna She/HerDeath by 1000 PagetopsShe/Her
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Alianna She/HerDeath by 1000 PagetopsShe/Her
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