Newbie 2118 | Terrieresque! - Day 4

[Umlaut]

Wait, I mean it might have been safer to shoot me and block Mew (since no risk of shot failing due to JK), even though that isn't what ended up happening.

[JasonWazza]

Yeah the kill on Mew basically makes your entire logic fall apart.

@Merlyn, what's your thoughts, because i kinda want to go Umlaut first.

[Umlaut]

How does it fall apart? Do you think there is any world in which scum just lets me as a tracker track whoever I want last night? Either they shoot me and block Mew, or they shoot Mew and block me. The latter is what happened.

[JasonWazza]

So then following through on your logic, who is the scum member then?

[Merlyn]

So, I'm thinking that if umlaut had fakeclaimed, he was would have to hope the other role was jailkeeper or friendly neighbor right? Otherwise he gets outed immediately. So the odds are really small that he chose this and then we actually had a jailkeeper. I agree it's a possibility, and I do think we should examine it bc otherwise we're basically giving umlaut a free pass to the end of the game. But the chances seem much smaller to me than kowah or t3 being the scum instead.

[Umlaut]

Also will say that we as a town, probably need to massclaim today, we can't massclaim on day 3 as that enables the scum to hide in the PR's and gives them too much leeway, forcing claims today disables this fact, and while we will likely lose our PR's due to this, we need to do this to enable us to actually scumhunt effectively, and not enable the scum team to hide easily in the PR's.

Hold on... Before the Tracker announced his result, you mentioned that we should mass claim, but once you found out that the Tracker result isn't indistinguishable, you suddenly thought that there is no point in mass claiming.

A Tracker claim in D1 could mean we are in setup A2, B1 and B3. In 2 of those setups, a tracker could potentially get useful result. But your original thought on mass claiming is based on your understanding that a "no result" is indistinguishable between being roleblocked and target no action (otherwise, what explains on the change of mind after the clearing up of the mechanism?).

So what seems to me is that you somehow already

know

that the Tracker is not getting any useful result

before

the Tracker said so, and since it is not distinguishable (in your understanding), you think we should mass claim.

The only possible person to know that is scum.

Caught you.

VOTE: JasonWazza

I'm treating this post as confirmation that Jason is town, btw. I don't believe SeeEmpty called out their actual scum buddy on an actual slip.

Kowah accepting this fake read is something I'm ambivalent about, because on the one hand it was a bad argument no one should have accepted, but on the other it shows a surprising lack of self-consciousness if scum!Kowah immediately jumped onto the wagon their buddy started.

[Umlaut]

I mean, if it seemed like scum!Jason was already going down I could see T3 busing like that, but I don't think it ever seemed like that.

[JasonWazza]

Merlyn's response seems really bad, if you trust Umlaut's information and are town Merlyn, you should be looking directly at me.

T3/Kowah can't risk a block on Umlaut, Merlyn/JasonWazza can.

Thing is we really have to consider who is realistically able to risk a block on Umlaut while shooting Mew.

I'm thinking Kowahbunga is the most likely partner.

Kowah is a flat stinking no after his hammer and this post being Mew's last one, especially with what happened leading up to that lim.

T3 can't really risk Mewtaph changing targets to him overnight, so also can't really risk a block on Umlaut, in fact T3 makes more sense as a Block Umlaut and no kill, hope that Mew is on Kowah and play from there.

I think the Lim's that make sense to me from this point are more Umlaut/Merlyn then anything else, as given the info we have, no other combinations of actions really makes sense (again either Kowah/T3 going with Block Umlaut and Kill Mewtaph is just beyond rediculous).

[JasonWazza]

@Mod: Just to confirm, if X is roleblocked and Y Tracks X on the same night, what result would Y receive.

Just going to get this info to be certain if everything i'm saying doesn't fall apart to some strange mechanical things that don't make sense in my mind.

[Merlyn]

T3/Kowah can't risk a block on Umlaut, Merlyn/JasonWazza can.

Thing is we really have to consider who is realistically able to risk a block on Umlaut while shooting Mew.

Why?

[JasonWazza]

Merlyn, the Jailkeeper is a roleblock and a protect.

If whoever Mew targeted was the one doing the kill, we would have had no kill last night, and again Umlaut is claiming that a Mafia Roleblocker blocked them.

Example;
Mew Jailkeeps the Mafia Roleblocker
Assuming the Mafia Roleblocker doesn't counter the block (Mafia Roleblocker is prioritized) which is what Umlaut is telling us, then there is no kill overnight.

T3/Kowah can't risk the above because they are likely targets for the Jailkeeper.
We can, because we aren't going to be the target, and would be able to kill Mew and Roleblock Umlaut.

[Kowahbunga]

An Umlaut lim to me is less about your reads on the slot and more about these two scenarios today and your feelings on how you want to play the final day if he is town. So it's really come down to this for us imo

1. They're useless at this point as a town PR if they're the tracker. So it's essentially a VT lim.
2. If they're scum then it's just WIFOM until the game is over about their alignment.

So to me it makes more sense to lim the noise that could ruin tomorrow if we even see it.

I think there's a case to be made for town!um and scum!um... But the scum!um is definitely stronger to me.

Reading Delta's ISO, he was hard town reading SeeEmpty the entire time he was with us. On the flip of that, SeeEmpty's ISO has Delta about 80 some times in it. The first thing that stands out was a town read from See, and then when given the choice between Jason and Delta, he put Jason at E-1. That feels like Jason is town because of this. It doesn't make sense to be scum, given a choice, and put your partner to E-1.

The one thing that is town leaning about Umlaut is he was voting SeeEmpty yesterday. In fact, they started the SeeEmpty wagon yesterday.

JasonWazza (3): SeeEmpty, Kowahbunga, T3
SeeEmpty (3): Umlaut, Mewtaph, JasonWazza

But when it got e-1 they left for me, only to come back after SeeEmpty's claim was countered. It seems a bit odd to keep your partner at E1 so that has to be considered.

If we imagine, for a moment, that it's C2. We need to get inside the head of the scum team on Delta's claim. (this claim would be fake if it's C2 if you need to be reminded).

Two goons know the following roles could exist on D1: Cop, Jailkeeper, Masonx2.

The roles they know don't exist are: Doc, Tracker, TFN.

They know a doc claim doesn't get countered, but then they know the claim is shit on D2 because the doc always dies N1 if revealed D1.

They know a TFN claim doesn't get countered, but then they know the claim is shit on D2 because no one will receive the message.

They know Tracker claimed doesn't get countered, but it would out the Cop for them. Because a Cop in the game immediately knows a tracker claim is fake. So they lose a scum and kill the cop.

The only other game it can be is A2. This is Umlaut telling the truth. Umlaut should have gotten a result last night imo. If scum want their kill to go through, jailkeeper has to die. Jailkeeper hitting scum ends the game today. That's not a risk to take unless there's another scum alive. Jailkeeper had to be roleblocked last night. Meaning I really think Umlaut should have gotten a result.

The only other lim I would accept today is mine. First, because I'm not trying to live through a day of WIFOM of is Umlaut scum or not. Also because, I'm very upset at myself because I've just realized that Mew never said who they jailkept the night before and I hammered before getting that info. I can't understand why they didn't mention it. So lim me today if you don't want to lim Umlaut because I'm just mislim bait tomorrow. However, I've talked myself into Umlaut being scum through typing this post.

VOTE: Umlaut

[JasonWazza]

As a note, TFN also gets countered by Cop, it's just an impossible claim to prove, whereas tracker can at least fake info, so cop actually has to out to counter a Tracker, whereas they probably don't to have a TFN get limmed.

[Umlaut]

Come to think of it, if I'm scum busing SeeEmpty yesterday and knowing he's going to fakeclaim Jailkeeper, I would have used the short deadline as an excuse to 'grudgingly' move my vote onto Jason and hope someone hammers before he can get cc'ed, not tried to start a new wagon.

[JasonWazza]

With my post 6 minutes after SeeEmpty claimed, do you really think a hammer on me would have worked without consequence?

Also actually order of events is T3 getting off me and voting Mewtaph, so no that's just not possible, you were several hours late, so a hammer on me wasn't a possibility.

[JasonWazza]

And hell, would Scum T3 jump off the counter wagon to not enable the counter wagon to be hammered?

I honestly think T3 and Kowah are both town with all these developments for today.

[Umlaut]

move my vote onto Jason and hope someone hammers

I didn't say I would have hammered, I said I would have put my vote there.

[JasonWazza]

So Umlaut, who is scum exactly?

[Merlyn]

Merlyn, the Jailkeeper is a roleblock and a protect.

If whoever Mew targeted was the one doing the kill, we would have had no kill last night, and again Umlaut is claiming that a Mafia Roleblocker blocked them.

Example;
Mew Jailkeeps the Mafia Roleblocker
Assuming the Mafia Roleblocker doesn't counter the block (Mafia Roleblocker is prioritized) which is what Umlaut is telling us, then there is no kill overnight.

T3/Kowah can't risk the above because they are likely targets for the Jailkeeper.
We can, because we aren't going to be the target, and would be able to kill Mew and Roleblock Umlaut.

What you're saying is right, I do get that, but what I was asking is why T3 can't risk it? Mew as good as called he was going to jail Kowah last night.

And hell, would Scum T3 jump off the counter wagon to not enable the counter wagon to be hammered?

I honestly think T3 and Kowah are both town with all these developments for today.

But there was pretty much no chance for the counter wagon to reach a lim at the point. I think it was a last minute move intended to shake up the voting, maybe even get a last minute wagon on Mew.

[Merlyn]

re Kowah 761:

I do think it would be incredibly bold of scum to offer to be a lim, especially this late in the game.

[JasonWazza]

You realize we were in a deadline scramble and getting to the point that i could have been hammered with basically no excuse since i had basically straight claimed VT by not countering?

And again, your telling me that you think that T3 thought there was no risk of being changed to overnight, and chose to Block Umlaut and Shoot Mewtaph, because i don't really buy that.

T3!scum in the way your putting it up makes no sense.

[JasonWazza]

Here's my thinking.

T3 logical actions as scum in this scenario.
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Umlaut.
Block Umlaut, Shoot no one. (again this relies on the Mod question, but if he gives a went nowhere if blocked, this seems like an option)
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Mewtaph.

Kowah logical actions as scum in this scenario.
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Umlaut/Mewtaph. (kowah has less options as he was the more likely to be Mewtaphs jail target.)

Umlaut logical actions as scum.
Shoot Mewtaph
Shoot no one.

Merlyn logical actions as scum.
Block Umlaut, Shoot Mewtaph
No action

JasonWazza logical actions as scum.
Block Umlaut, Shoot Mewtaph.
No action

[JasonWazza]

Actually both me and Merlyn have a few more options that make more sense, but the point of putting those there was pointing out that we have the realistic option to bring us to this actual scenario.

[Umlaut]

So Umlaut, who is scum exactly?

I'm working on that. I think there are enough clues for the game to be solvable so I want to take my time to reread and solve it today. If y'all decide I need to go, please give me time to put together a solve and a case for it before limming me.

[fferyllt]

@Mod: Just to confirm, if X is roleblocked and Y Tracks X on the same night, what result would Y receive.

Just going to get this info to be certain if everything i'm saying doesn't fall apart to some strange mechanical things that don't make sense in my mind.

Y would receive the result that X didn't go anywhere that night.