Newbie 2126: Art [Game Over]

[skitter30]

i don't know why i'm not dead ..

[Alianna]

Mod accidentally sent the replacement a doctor role PM and decided to just go with it because why not?

[Alianna]

I'm still kinda hung up on the fact that there's a *lot* of waffling on overseer in your iso, your smiley vote looked like you decided he was doomed so decided to bus

, ans

how much shade you kept throwing towards the ali/rp slot - a lot of that read like you were trying to sow doubt in the claim and/or were trying to avoid acceding that the claim was true

The first part is impossible to refute, because yes, I did waffle on overseer, and yes, that vote does look bad, but idk what else I was supposed to do there. I wasn't getting a good read there D1 and my other top scumread at the end of D2 (you) wasn't going to go through. I'm town, I can't really help looking like his partner because I didn't know he was scum. That's not a reason not to vote me, I'm just at a loss for what to do this game. I'm the top suspect in MeLo, but the strongest argument for town!me got thrown out for basically no reason.

I don't know which way you're using "shade" here, but usually it means someone is trying to make a slot look scummy. You did assert in the past that I wasn't coming to the conclusion that the slot was town, which I'm pretty sure I addressed more than once, and it's also fairly obvious if you go back through my ISO that I was townreading them. If it's just about the tracker claim itself, it looks like that because I did doubt it, and it turns out it wasn't true. I didn't keep posting that way after they claimed JK on Wayward unless you count the hypothetical in 956.

[Alianna]

At risk of WIFOM, I'd have killed Eiralox because they were just as willing to vote me and I feel like I'd have an easier time reasoning with you.

[DragonEater70]

i don't know why i'm not dead ..

My immediate reaction is someone thought that if they killed you, they would be the automatic lim? Ummm give me a bit, I wanna think this through.

[DragonEater70]

Okay so upon some thinking, I believe the no kill means the scum is actually Eiralox. Let me explain:

Alianna explained why scum!her would shoot Eiralox, and I believe her (even though I actually expected scum!Ali to shoot Skitter and then she'd have 2 people to reason with).

Scum!me would shoot Eiralox after seeing that Skitter was willing to lim Alianna. Or I might've shot Skitter and explained why it would make sense for scum!Alianna to do it. I don't think I am good enough yet at playing scum to do it but I might have tried if I were scum.

Scum!Skitter (which is very unlikely) would have shot Eiralox, knowing that both scum!me and scum!Alianna would do it and guaranteeing a 1v1 between us.

But Eiralox on the other hand - shooting Skitter meant that the wagon on Alianna lost momentum, and shooting either me or Alianna would be a weird WIFOM move that would force everyone to reevaluate their reads - which is not something scum!Eiralox wants because they are generally being TR'd right now. Also, They have the perfect motivation to no kill so they can just continue the push on Alianna.

VOTE: Eiralox

[Eiralox]

Please tell me why I come into the thread like a mad professor with twelve minutes on the clock to make a futile vote on Alianna and announce to everyone that I am in fact not going to kill anyone tonight after all. When I have everything to gain from killing either you or skitter as scum.

I have only one completed game as scum here across alts discounting two where I replaced in and flaked and I'm always amazed at how careless people assume I'll play as scum, not that I really found informed manipulation to my tastes.

If I were scum we wouldn't have reached night phase I feel I'd have agreed with skitter wholly on alianna and slowly and subtly pressured you into joining us by making short but sharp cases to do with tone, by falling back on merlyn's end day one gut call, by spamming posts that I can frame as Alianna being in a pt and being informed due to seemingly not needing that much effort to rezchreads here.

I've done some of it already but as town so....

Your vote is brave, to say the least. I'll still assume you're town.

[DragonEater70]

Please enlighten me what you stand to gain ftom killing Skitter or me?

I'll unvote for now though.

[/uv]

[DragonEater70]

Oops.

UNVOTE:

[DragonEater70]

Also can you link the the completed scum game?

[Eiralox]

Also can you link the the completed scum game?

I don't really do that.

Please enlighten me what you stand to gain ftom killing Skitter or me?

Skitter: Me and Alianna push you through.
You: Me and Skitter push Alianna through.

Easy game.

[DragonEater70]

Yeah I guess that's true. Fineeee. Like I can see Skitter being confused about me being killed and realizing it might be a bit suspicious, but nobody woud suspect you for a Skitter kill.

[DragonEater70]

So is this game dead? What have I replaced in for...?

[Eiralox]

TheDragonWayHoldWardSteadyEaterSon70 Saga Vol I

Spoiler:

VOTE: alianna

I feel like I’m supposed to ask about this vote.

Why

Yeah the entire purpose of the vote was to evoke discussion

Which ig it kinda did, not as much as i would have liked tho

I don't particularly sr alianna (actually kinda think her last two posts are townie)

Why do you think her last two posts were townie?

The one thing I've noticed so far is that one of Alianna or Skitter might be townie. Their interactions together out of the gate would be pretty bold if they were on the same scum team.

And while it's theoretically possible that both scum have been inactive, I have a gut feeling that that would be wishful thinking

Same with Overseer and Alianna now that I think about it.

These might be informed I'm not looking in their proper context but might be a Way to make overseer look good While buddying With skitter and alianna idk if i've mentioned it before.

So you have to combine activity and content with scum MO. Rereading a bit, I could read Merilyn's post as her trying to quickly set the execution towards an inactive townie since those would be easy targets. But I want to see more posts from Merilyn and see what else develops before I hold on too hard to that read

From my RVS vote? So, like, I'd orchestrate an insanely quick lim while never moving from my joke vote and hope no one questioned me on it on D2?

Oh not your RSV vote. I was talking about this.

Looking forward to the game, all!

VOTE: political clout, never trust a politician

Quoting you for the notification. Any thoughts yet on...well, anything?

I don't like that none of the other newbies have contributed anything.

I mean I'm not sure comes out the door With this push but it can also be LHF easy push kinda thing.

I just find it more likely to come from town, especially from new town.

Why from new town? Is there something about my approach here that you think sounds in experienced...?

So either alianna can be toWnspewing steady for early allies(y?) or steady is drawing out the read to look better? the only lens i can look at where it's tvt is skitter scum and i haven't put that monocle on yet.

I think Overseer is spending a lot of focus and attention on something not very important to the game. They are coming off as engaging, but it doesn't feel like a genuine thought path.

I'm trying to see if skitter has a town read off one post, which would be tmi. If you don't like scum hunting and just want silence no need to shade me, just say so.

Talking about any content not being important to the game when it's dead and you've contributed nothing. That's just silly.

Why so aggressive

Does a scum bud ask this? Maybe it's the sort of conflict resolving non-commital thing scum might do, or it's just a townie not liking aggro. i haven't read the polaroid steady fight but polaroid called out overseer along with skitter day one so eh

That leaves Polaroid and Overseer. It seems like Overseer is genuinely probing but is more aggressive and tunnel visioned about it. I feel like all of his posts so far have been responding to Polaroid's response or the thing with Skitter.

One thing I wanted to ask was is it safe to assume me Polaroid and Overseer aren't a scum team together? Seems very risky and odd to come in after very little activity and push on your partner who nobody was suspecting.

@Radical Polaroid say you're right and Overseer is scum. Who do you see as his partner?

Scum can post this maybe.

I've done some close rereading and have more thoughts regarding specific players. I'll post more tomorrow but this is all I have time to do tonight.

Spoiler: CamelCasedSnivy

My slot hasn't said… anything, at all.

This is an interesting line. I wonder why the first thing you’d do is make this comment about your replacement’s activity. This could be a town line because I feel like if I replaced into a game knowing I was a townie, the first thing I’d do would be see if the person I replaced had any reads because I’d already know that they shared the same alignment as me

Ok so immediately yall looked into the selfvote a lot more than needed; I self voted a LONG TIME back into 2 games where I was both townie.

I kind of agree with this, kind of don’t. I mean it sort of felt excessive, but it eventually lead us out of the RVS.

Also looking at the fight between political and overseer made me think overseer was towny, as well as skitter and overseer's banter too. Neither of those felt like 2 townies just not understanding each other, so that's my main read right now.

*later* Also since someone was curious about my overseer townread, I think that what stuck out is the overseer and Radical banter, overseer was willing to question the "scumread" on them which I think is towny.

This seems like the most town post from camelCasedSnivy so far, because it’s looking for the same sort of things I would look for

Looking at the few posts Political has had, they keep saying "oh you're doing this that means you're scum", #117 was their only seemingly productive post while continuing to vote themselves (just saying that's kinda unproductive).

I don’t really agree with this read because going after someone just for being unproductive seems like it could be scum leaning towards an easy push. I’ll get to this more in the next block but to me Political seems more apathetic than anything else. And apathy isn’t really alignment-indicative because town or mafia could be apathetic.

Spoiler: Political Clout

overseer is highly paranoid and think the scum team is skitter and radical and they're out to get him in some nefarious plot. I have no idea what this means for his alignment. which leaves another important question are radical and skitter out to get him? in 5 pages this early in the game seems highly unlikely. it is weird.

pre-edit: some irrelevant posts.

Like Snivy said, this is the only PC post so far that’s had any substance. And I agree with the content.

I could see still PC flipping either way at this point. There just isn’t enough to go off yet to decide

Spoiler: Overseer / Radical Polaroid

Doing two-in-one because.

Don't see what you two are seeing. Looks like a random vote to me.

On himself?

Because the vote was on himself, you think it wasn't RVS?

So i think it was an rvs vote, but that it's more significant than 'random' and that we can derive meaning from it

I meant random as in the usual random vote in the random voting stage. First post with a vote that is not intented to be serious of an elimination or wagon, he just happened to choose himself, and I didn't look into it as it doesn't really matter who you choose in RVS.

But anyway I get you now, you mean like you can read something off of the specific choice of vote, but since he specifically chose himself it's not completely "random".

And the meaning you derive is that he's unlikely scum?

This feels like town trying to reach understanding of another town POV.

I think Overseer is spending a lot of focus and attention on something not very important to the game. They are coming off as engaging, but it doesn't feel like a genuine thought path.

We’re only on page three at this point and so “a lot of focus and attention” seems like a bit of a reach? Then uhm, “not very important to the game,” I mean we’ve well-established that you kind of have to make mountains out of mole hills. So I don’t really agree with the reasoning.

I think Overseer is spending a lot of focus and attention on something not very important to the game. They are coming off as engaging, but it doesn't feel like a genuine thought path.

I'm trying to see if skitter has a town read off one post, which would be tmi. If you don't like scum hunting and just want silence no need to shade me, just say so.

Talking about any content not being important to the game when it's dead and you've contributed nothing. That's just silly.

This isn't a thought from an innocent. A werewolf is more concerned with things like this. You aren't saying my point is incorrect, rather that "how dare I comment on your unimportant rant when I haven't done enough important things." This comes off as someone being defensive, not looking at the game trying to solve the game.

Again I don’t really agree with this. I don’t think you can take one post and say “you’re not looking to solve the game”, you have to look at the bigger picture. I could see how Overseer is trying to solve the game through the line of thought.

Alianna

- I like the initial activity and the posts seem genuine. I feel scum would wait a bit instead of "leading the charge" in trying to kick off the game

TheHoldSteady

- Post 35 sat really well with me, I tend to also keep a lookout for teams as it helps solve (I have 100% day 1 scum team solve btw lol, yes I'm very humble, and no I don't wanna hear about small sample size of 2)

Political Clout - need to see more, so far just expressed lack of interest. Which at the stage of the game it was posted was understandable.
Merlyn - I feel this player is catering to the newer players and wants them to shine, but I am assuming she'd do this as either alignment. Not seeing anything that pointed scum or town.
areebot - probably forgot the site exists.

Arko

- Similar to politcal clout, but in my experience (limited so this might not be solid) it's excuses attached to lack of activity that usually scum feel the need to do.

Skitter30

- I have played with skitter before, and she was pretty good, I feel she was very stingy with her vote and explored all angles, even when we had a basically confirmed scum. This time her questions to me just feel shallow. Her vote on me comes off as opportunistic on a case that is very weak. I'm suspicious of her town read on political clout as well.

Radical Polaroid

- I sensed the case was not genuine. Still would like to hear what the case is exactly but for now it's basically just looks like she's saying I'm lying. I get that gut reads and instincts can play a role, but she's refusing to admit it as a gut instinct or say that I'm lying with my hunting. First tries to spin it as if I'm not scum hunting and then when answered, says my way of trying to solve is not important (when there was literally nothing happening at that stage btw). It's like I'm being accused and when I address it I'm being defensive and not addressing the correct thing? What am I supposed to address though. I can't really explain it well but it's just feels weird. As if she's trying to build the case further.

VOTE: Skitter30 Want to see more of the radical polaroid case. I think while unlikely, she could actually be a newer town player thinking "gut feeling" is not enough and trying to build up something out of thin air. Going with skitter because this option is higher chance.

Comparing the play of others to how you approach games as town is something I tend to do a lot, so that’s a good post.

Alliana and Overseer have both compared Skitter’s game here to previous games at different points but have had completely different perspectives. That’s interesting. Overseer, if you’re reading this, what do you think of post #141?

I don’t necessarily agree that Polaroid’s thoughts weren’t genuine, because I can see where they’re coming from even if I find them misguided

basically a stonewall defense of overseer and pushing polaroid. I also tred overseer but eh in tone can be scummy here, i mean i'm not sure i sensed agression back then but now this sorta can feel like informed semi panic.

@Alianna, is it only RP you'll vote for? I'm not against the lim I think but I just want to know where your headspace is at

No, I’ll switch if someone makes a good case for another wagon or if we’re near deadline. Exactly who else I’d potentially vote for, I’m not sure yet.

Then tell me what you think about my case for Merilyn and be completely honest because if you really think I'm wrong here then maybe I'll change

UNVOTE: Merlyn

I was leaning neutral scum on Polaroid but I don't think the sudden scumread making any sense. It sounds like an OMGUS

I don't quite understand what you mean here. Are you saying Polaroid moved up or down in your reads?

I mean I was neutral before, closer to leaning scum than town, but now I'm closer to reading her as potentially being scum

eh.....

I still think there's at least one scum in Steady/Merlyn/PC/camel/Eira, so I should probably be thinking about who that is.

I don't agree with writing off Skitter or Overseer / Overseer's replacement

I think I like this post back then? because of the skitter sus?

[skitter30]

At risk of WIFOM, I'd have killed Eiralox because they were just as willing to vote me and I feel like I'd have an easier time reasoning with you.

i've been scumreading u p hard this whole time tho

[skitter30]

i don't know why i'm not dead ..

My immediate reaction is someone thought that if they killed you, they would be the automatic lim? Ummm give me a bit, I wanna think this through.

i'm worried that it's you/eiralox leaving me alive to misflip alianna for you

[skitter30]

ugh maybe it's dragon

[DragonEater70]

i don't know why i'm not dead ..

My immediate reaction is someone thought that if they killed you, they would be the automatic lim? Ummm give me a bit, I wanna think this through.

i'm worried that it's you/eiralox leaving me alive to misflip alianna for you

I do believe I might do that if I were scum, I mean it would make sense.
But it's also exactly why I suspected Eiralox, because they have the same motivationto do it.

Honestly though the more I think about it the more it feels like a WIFOM situation so I think it's best to try and get reads based on content rather than NK analysis.
And I'll ashamedly admit I haven't than that Eoralox ISO yet. I think I have a few minutes now so let me at least start.

[DragonEater70]

Haven't done*
Wtf

[Eiralox]

This game has become interesting maybe you were right Alianna

[DragonEater70]

My break is finished but the ISOing isn't so I'll post my thoughts later.

[Aisa]

Prodding Alianna.

[Alianna]

Sorry, forgot about this game for a bit.

[Alianna]

Okay so upon some thinking, I believe the no kill means the scum is actually Eiralox. Let me explain:

Alianna explained why scum!her would shoot Eiralox, and I believe her (even though I actually expected scum!Ali to shoot Skitter and then she'd have 2 people to reason with).

Scum!me would shoot Eiralox after seeing that Skitter was willing to lim Alianna. Or I might've shot Skitter and explained why it would make sense for scum!Alianna to do it. I don't think I am good enough yet at playing scum to do it but I might have tried if I were scum.

Scum!Skitter (which is very unlikely) would have shot Eiralox, knowing that both scum!me and scum!Alianna would do it and guaranteeing a 1v1 between us.

But Eiralox on the other hand - shooting Skitter meant that the wagon on Alianna lost momentum, and shooting either me or Alianna would be a weird WIFOM move that would force everyone to reevaluate their reads - which is not something scum!Eiralox wants because they are generally being TR'd right now. Also, They have the perfect motivation to no kill so they can just continue the push on Alianna.

VOTE: Eiralox

This doesn't really feel like a scum vote, I would expect scum!you to play it straight and vote me because it looked yesterday like there would be support for it. I can see it if you want to create WIFOM, though, or if you're worried about suspicion shifting off me and you want to make sure there's another viable target. Hmm.

[Alianna]

Please tell me why I come into the thread like a mad professor with twelve minutes on the clock to make a futile vote on Alianna and announce to everyone that I am in fact not going to kill anyone tonight after all. When I have everything to gain from killing either you or skitter as scum.

I have only one completed game as scum here across alts discounting two where I replaced in and flaked and I'm always amazed at how careless people assume I'll play as scum, not that I really found informed manipulation to my tastes.

If I were scum we wouldn't have reached night phase I feel I'd have agreed with skitter wholly on alianna and slowly and subtly pressured you into joining us by making short but sharp cases to do with tone, by falling back on merlyn's end day one gut call, by spamming posts that I can frame as Alianna being in a pt and being informed due to seemingly not needing that much effort to rezchreads here.

I've done some of it already but as town so....

Your vote is brave, to say the least. I'll still assume you're town.

This does make sense. Scum!you would have had a decent chance of winning it yesterday if you did that, or you could have shifted onto absentee!Wayward and tried to convince skitter, so why didn't you do any of that and hold off on voting until the last minute?
I think I could apply this to Dragon too to some extent. Maybe less though because Wayward wasn't around and Dragon only had a couple of days.