Newbie 1790 (Game over!)
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schadd_ he/itpandora's pukeboxhe/it
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ideally you two talk to each other a bit-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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schadd_ he/itpandora's pukeboxhe/it
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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Spoiler: Quotes
Less a question and more a comment, but going back to the very start of the game I first read Collapsar as slightly scummy because I felt their introductory comments kept the focus of attention along the me and schadd axis that my early push created. They are saying to slow down the process, but ask for people to enter in the conversation specifically "I would especially like Pyra, XnadrojX, and Jak to weigh in on this". Not a majorly alignment indicative thing, but the first thing that caught my eye with regard to Collapsar's play.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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Spoiler: Bussing?
The first vote Collapsar placed in the game, relatively early into the game was on Jak/A50. Shaddowez pinged him out and Collapsar used similar content to motivate her vote. Collapsar's vote was on A50 much of Day 1, but then moved to Bio prior to the lynch. On Day 2 they were critical of A50, but much softer, and never indicating they'd vote.
In post 513, Collapsar wrote:I'm not impressed with Almost50's defence here; it feels like he's trying to deflect things instead of providing a substantial defence. I don't know how I feel about his early claim. Almost50, this might go without saying, but if you are Town and you seriously believe that lynching you right now would lead to a Mafia victory, you should be putting as much effort as possible into convincing people that lynching you is a bad idea. Yes, there is pressure on you at the moment, but I don't think it's a compelling reason to give up. I would also like to know what value you think your defence in #512 has to the Town, and why considering things from this perspective should lead us to believe that you are not in the mafia.
I continue to have trouble sorting Pyra, especially after their #508; a few of the things they are saying seem Town, but a lot of their over-arching behaviour (for example, not having solid opinions on anyone, posting extremely infrequently) suggests possible scum. I feel like on several occasions Pyra is asking questions that don't really go anywhere and, although answered, are never followed up on. Pyra, I am interested in seeing what you do with the response you have received to #508 from schadd_ and what your reads are on each player at this point in the game.
RC, I feel the same way about posting readslists especially knowing that they will change and evolve; if you have preliminary thoughts I think it could be useful even to have that much before your full post is complete. (Although you've already outlined your reads so I at least know what they are.)-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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The other big post from Collapsar on Day 2 criticized A50's setup puzzles that he was flailing around with. The specific way option 1 was worded "The Mafia member making the kill was in jail last night" ignores the possibility that the jailkeeper protected someone, possibly prompting the jailkeeper to come in and correct them, and possibly confirming their n1 jail target. They were able to seem to be criticizing A50, but still achieve a similar goal (fishing for the jailor).In post 554, Collapsar wrote:Let's look at this from another perspective. Given that no one died last night, how likely is it that schadd_ is bulletproof and no one is able to counterclaim? Let's disregard the possibility that for whatever reason the mafia decided not to kill. So, assuming the mafia tried to kill someone last night -- and I can't believe I get to quote this in my very first game of Forum Mafia -- typically, people die if they are killed. So what are all the reasons why someone could have been attacked and not died?
The Mafia member making the kill was in jail last night.
The person who would have been killed is Bulletproof.
The person who was attacked was also healed by the Doctor.-
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Collapsar Townie
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You are right that I incorrectly failed to mention this possibility, although at the time I was certainly considering it. I concede that this was an oversight and an honest mistake; I meant to go back and correct it but was caught up with activities, both on- and off-site during Days 2 and 3, and the opportunity had long passed. The attention to detail was spent elsewhere in that post.In post 1106, NotGonnaLie wrote:
The other big post from Collapsar on Day 2 criticized A50's setup puzzles that he was flailing around with. The specific way option 1 was worded "The Mafia member making the kill was in jail last night" ignores the possibility that the jailkeeper protected someone, possibly prompting the jailkeeper to come in and correct them, and possibly confirming their n1 jail target. They were able to seem to be criticizing A50, but still achieve a similar goal (fishing for the jailor).In post 554, Collapsar wrote:Let's look at this from another perspective. Given that no one died last night, how likely is it that schadd_ is bulletproof and no one is able to counterclaim? Let's disregard the possibility that for whatever reason the mafia decided not to kill. So, assuming the mafia tried to kill someone last night -- and I can't believe I get to quote this in my very first game of Forum Mafia -- typically, people die if they are killed. So what are all the reasons why someone could have been attacked and not died?
The Mafia member making the kill was in jail last night.
The person who would have been killed is Bulletproof.
The person who was attacked was also healed by the Doctor.
Although no one seemed to pick up on this oversight at the time, or did not mention it if they did, this correction could have easily been made by anyone, and not just the jailer. Additionally, at that time the jailer would not necessarily have known whether a kill was stopped (a) if at all, since schadd_ could have been attacked, and (b) by jailing the attacker or by protecting the target. Therefore, failing to provide this option is not sufficient motivation for the jailer (and no one else) to correct this and to confirm who was jailed on Night 1, so this shouldn't be interpreted as rolefishing, as indeed it was not. The combination of events necessary for this hypothetical tactic to pay off would have been unlikely; recall that at the time, we were still unsure whether the setup included a Jailer or a Tracker, and the question under debate was whether schadd_ could have been fakeclaiming. Given the uncertainty surrounding the situation, and the pattern I have repeatedly demonstrated in this game of resolving uncertainty by finding the most likely outcome or sequence of events and, as demonstrated in the same post, by discounting explanations which require multiple unlikely events to occur in combination, to rely on such a gambit would be extremely out of character for me.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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Yeah I remember that post as really well thought out when I first read it. And I agree it's not certain what kind of reaction the post would have created, but it's sort of a free-roll. It just happens that one omission seems to me to open the best possible outcomes for scum.
You also immediately followed up that post (within the same minute) requesting an updated reads list from Pyra, so maybe you had a jailkeeper read on them at the time and the proximity might have increased the likelihood they respond from a jailkeeper perspective.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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This reminds me of a few other instances in the game where you mention having a thought but not posting about it. What went through your head where you decided not to include that information?In post 1107, Collapsar wrote:I meant to go back and correct it but was caught up with activities, both on- and off-site during Days 2 and 3, and the opportunity had long passed.
In post 654, Collapsar wrote: I had other things here but they were mostly quotes from earlier in the game with minor commentary; it served to get my own thoughts in order and refresh my memory of Day 1 so I've omitted it for now.In post 749, Collapsar wrote: Right now, NGL might be the correct vote, and I remember having this thought earlier in the game but not doing anything about it.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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I think the biggest missed opportunity on Day 2 was not hearing more from A50. We had him wriggling for his life, it was a great opportunity to find some mafia on mafia interactions. It's interesting that you don't mention this in your regrets about Day 2.In post 800, Collapsar wrote:
I've only re-read up to the first post of Day 2, so I'll answer your first part once that has happened. I think Day 2 ending early helped the Mafia more than Town. As I mentioned at the start of Day 3, I didn't get anything I wanted out of Day 2, neither info from Pyra nor more interaction / scumcases from RC.In post 780, NotGonnaLie wrote: (...)
I just didn't want the day to end early. As it is I view the day ending as early as it did a victory for mafia. A50 self hammering prevented us from hearing more from Pyra and A50 himself while he was wriggling on the block, it also may have been a way for mafia to frame the people who were off the wagon.
Do you think my behavior day 2 served to derail the lynch of A50, or elevate someone else as a better lynch that day? Do you think day 2 ending prematurely helped mafia or town more?-
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schadd_ he/itpandora's pukeboxhe/it
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prodge
these are cool ^-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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Another thing that kind of weirds me out about post 800 was the selected edited portion (In post 800, Collapsar wrote:
I've only re-read up to the first post of Day 2, so I'll answer your first part once that has happened. I think Day 2 ending early helped the Mafia more than Town. As I mentioned at the start of Day 3, I didn't get anything I wanted out of Day 2, neither info from Pyra nor more interaction / scumcases from RC.In post 780, NotGonnaLie wrote: (...)
On day 2 I feel like both of us had A50 as our top mafia (based on your most recent read list at the time), yet neither of us voted. It's not like I was pushing other wagons at the time,I just didn't want the day to end early. As it is I view the day ending as early as it did a victory for mafia. A50 self hammering prevented us from hearing more from Pyra and A50 himself while he was wriggling on the block, it also may have been a way for mafia to frame the people who were off the wagon.
Do you think my behavior day 2 served to derail the lynch of A50, or elevate someone else as a better lynch that day? Do you think day 2 ending prematurely helped mafia or town more?italicized portion deleted from your post, and readded). In the middle of a sentence, and with context related to the question at hand. It's almost like you didnt want to have the fact that A50 was your top scum read and someone you didn't vote reported again.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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I understand some people feel more comfortable building a town circle before or in conjunction with finding scum, but the way you were asking questions on day 3 felt to me much more like you were feeling out potential final 3 scenarios than finding the last scum.
In post 949, Collapsar wrote: I take it from this that RC is currently a stronger scumread for you than NGL. If this is where you stand, I think I want to hear your case on RC before anything else.In post 970, Collapsar wrote:Something about this day feels extremely off to me, but I can't put my finger on exactly what. Every time I think someone is scum, I'm reminded of another piece of evidence that pushes it back the other way. This has happened several times already on Day 3.
Right now I have developed a townread on NGL; schadd_, do you think NGL is likely to be town? Is there anyone else you think looks very town or very scum right now?In post 993, Collapsar wrote: We have three people among myself, schadd_ and NGL who think each other are town. Assuming that this is what's going on, the way that the mafia wins this endgame is eliminating two people out of this group, forcing Day 4 to be one out of the three vs. two people who both look like scum. Personally, I like the alternative better of having two people alive on Day 4 who generally trust each other against a third person who they mutually believe is scum. I don't know anything about this style of endgame so I have no idea if this is actually good or something that town generally wins in practice, but it feels like this is the scenario that gives us the best fighting chance.In post 999, Collapsar wrote:
Same.In post 994, RadiantCowbells wrote:I thought I was your townread
I want to think you're town, but too many things are still bothering me about your play, whereas I'm having an easier time seeing NGL as town (although, I continue to be paranoid that NGL could maybe be scum flying under the radar at this point? I feel like I'm not experienced enough to know the answer to that)
It really is between you and shaddowez at least in my head; I'm sorry if you're town and I'm not perceiving you as obvioustown as you think you've been.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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In post 1042 you claim, "It's been between you(RC) and shaddowez for this entire day", yet over the day I think your lynch list was actually highly variable.
In post 738 you claim "it is still between the three of you(excluding schadd)"
Going further in post 749 you say "Of the three cases that I have right now, shaddowez is actually my weakest one by a non-negligible margin." and "Right now, NGL might be the correct vote"
Even as you do seem to gravitate toward only RC and shaddowez, you still clearly leave me as a possibility in post post 970 and post 999.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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One of the weirdest things about Day 3 for me was the falling out between RC and Collapsar.
Spoiler: RC lightly questioned Collapsar's towniness
Spoiler: Collapsar seems to overreact at no longer being "hard townread" and then gets shut down by RC for innacuraccies
Spoiler: Some time passes and Collapsar now finds the paranoia healthy
Spoiler: But then RC gets kicked out of the townbloc and they butt heads again
Spoiler: The tension seems to dissipate right before Collapsar follows RC in hammering Shaddowez-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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This is more of a tone thing, but something I associate with scum. Collapsar seemed really keyed into what in particular was getting them town read or scum read and was highly critical when that wasn't applied reciprocally or changed without notice.
Spoiler: Hey I got scumread for this thing, you should scumread NGL too!
Spoiler: Hey you townread me for this thing before (sortof) you should townread this person too!
Spoiler: But RC I was your top read what happened!
There's a way to make these criticisms that feel like pointing out inconsistencies in logic to catch mafia, but I get a vibe Collapsar was taking it personally which indicates scum to me.-
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schadd_ he/itpandora's pukeboxhe/it
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ngl can you make the case for why it's towny that you haven't voted yet and why it's scummy that collapsar hasn't voted yet-
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Collapsar Townie
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I'm back safely from my trip, but...I really need some sleep! I'm preparing my case and plan to post it on Monday. A few things came up over the last week that will need my attention IRL, but I plan to be able to participate more frequently for the rest of Day 4. Sorry about the lack of activity until now, the timing of things didn't work out as intended.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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I don't think the lack of voting is alignment indicative for either of us. I'm always voting for Collapsar here, but I'll wait to place a vote until everyone has spoken their piece.In post 1117, schadd_ wrote:ngl can you make the case for why it's towny that you haven't voted yet and why it's scummy that collapsar hasn't voted yet
I assume Collapsar is always voting me, but they could vote now or later as either alignment.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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Why do you plan to unveil your case as one monolithic post instead of sharing things as you find them?In post 1118, Collapsar wrote:I'm back safely from my trip, but...I really need some sleep! I'm preparing my case and plan to post it on Monday. A few things came up over the last week that will need my attention IRL, but I plan to be able to participate more frequently for the rest of Day 4. Sorry about the lack of activity until now, the timing of things didn't work out as intended.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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The sequence of posts after the oops hammer from Collapsar is an unholy level of dumb telling that seems impossible to pull off as a newbie. It was this kind of tone that first caused me to read them town, but I guess this kind of posting is part of their scum plan.
Spoiler: Post Hammer Quotes
The first post today kind of shows that same thing. Considering the world where the BP claim is fake, and congratulating me on making this far are not the sort of thing I'd expect for new scum to make, but maybe these little turns of phrase are tools they use to get town read.In post 1096, Collapsar wrote:I'm around, though slightly limited access this week due to conference travel. I can answer questions if you want; preparing my case will take a bit longer. I expect to have it ready by Monday or Tuesday of next week, depending on how quickly I can catch up with work.
But shows what I know for trying to set up a townblock! That could have cost Town very dearly.
I'm going to assume based on #1087 that, because I'm also not BP, schadd_ is effectively confirmed town in this endgame, since NGL, if holding back a counterclaim for whatever reason, would have opened with a CC and accusation and would now be trying to convince me that schadd_ is mafia instead of the other way around. As it stands, then, this avoids a messy three-way standoff; now it's just a court case.
I have to say it's pretty good that you made it this far, NGL; I don't think I expected this outcome! I'm going to do my best to keep things pleasant and civil to-Day, and give you a really good fight. Look forward to it.-
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NotGonnaLie Goon
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Your vote on Bio is still the most clear reason you're mafia:
You put a player to L-1 while he was a null read. YOU HAD ABSOLUTELY NO REASON to vote him other than to "get info". Other people had a scum read on him because of getting a townread on shaddowez "too quickly", but you admit to not even having a clear idea of that piece of evidence:In post 332, Collapsar wrote:I wasn't sure about voting up Biochemist today, but this is actually a good opportunity for me to put pressure on him and get some information out of one of my biggest null reads at the moment.
VOTE: Biochemist
This puts Biochemist at Lynch minus one, so the IC may want to talk about what that means (but I can at least say things like "don't put the final vote on him without giving him a chance to defend himself first").In post 411, Collapsar wrote:
I was under the impression that this was Almost50 "putting shaddowez in a high towniness bracket with insufficient info", not Biochemist. I explained my reasoning for putting pressure on Biochemist; he was a null read and I wanted him to talk. Had I come back before the quickhammer I would have almost certainly unvoted.In post 402, NotGonnaLie wrote:Interesting night phase, but let's make sure we also talk about the way Biochemist got lynched yesterday.
Why did the people that voted him read his as scummy? The only thing that I see anyone mention is he put shaddowez in a high towniness bracket with insufficient info. Shaddowez hadn't posted much at that point, but what he had posted was pretty good content.
What made people so certain he was the best lynch? And why did the votes come in so quickly and before deadline?"Had I come back before the quickhammer I would have almost certainly unvoted."HOW DO YOU DO THAT WITH AN L-1 vote?
All this time A-50 was the other main vote wagon.-
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Collapsar Townie
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I find it easier to organize my thoughts this way, especially if I need to refer to a large number of posts as part of the argument. Also, I wrote part of my case already on a plane with no Internet access, and it's simpler for me to finish that up and post it.In post 1120, NotGonnaLie wrote:
Why do you plan to unveil your case as one monolithic post instead of sharing things as you find them?In post 1118, Collapsar wrote:I'm back safely from my trip, but...I really need some sleep! I'm preparing my case and plan to post it on Monday. A few things came up over the last week that will need my attention IRL, but I plan to be able to participate more frequently for the rest of Day 4. Sorry about the lack of activity until now, the timing of things didn't work out as intended.-
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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