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Harumi Ayasato
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Post Post #350 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:59 am

Post by Harumi Ayasato »

In post 348, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 341, Harumi Ayasato wrote:
In post 339, Lunar Martian wrote:Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.
Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.
I didn't answer because I've already talked about it. They might have said something that Krazy would know is a tell, or Krazy might be good at reading them. For sure no newbie would have any particular reason to kill Krazy.
And you're saying that a scum team seeing a replacement before they've decided on a kill and immediately decided that this player, who has not said
anything
in this game, is the most threatening person in this game? You're saying this is more likely than a misplay, PR hunting, or any of those alternative theories?
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Post Post #351 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:09 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 351, Harumi Ayasato wrote:
In post 348, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 341, Harumi Ayasato wrote:
In post 339, Lunar Martian wrote:Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.
Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.
I didn't answer because I've already talked about it. They might have said something that Krazy would know is a tell, or Krazy might be good at reading them. For sure no newbie would have any particular reason to kill Krazy.
And you're saying that a scum team seeing a replacement before they've decided on a kill and immediately decided that this player, who has not said
anything
in this game, is the most threatening person in this game? You're saying this is more likely than a misplay, PR hunting, or any of those alternative theories?
At this point you're not even bothering to read through and understand what I'm saying. I'm tired of talking in circles with you. You ask a question, I answer it, then you go back and ask about the other half of what I said. It's exhausting.

I'm VT.
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Post Post #352 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:19 am

Post by AliceK »

In post 350, Harumi Ayasato wrote:Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.
Well, there are 7 people. 3 are voting Lunar, 3 are voting you. Guess who has a deciding vote.
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Post Post #353 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:27 am

Post by Malakittens »

Lunar you never really did answer why I’m a TR but you are voting me

:idk:
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #354 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:28 am

Post by Malakittens »

What’s really bad is reading these last few pages but I can’t help to think might be a TvT, but idk since Lunar feels like they are spiraling
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #355 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:59 am

Post by Harumi Ayasato »

In post 353, AliceK wrote:
In post 350, Harumi Ayasato wrote:Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.
Well, there are 7 people. 3 are voting Lunar, 3 are voting you. Guess who has a deciding vote.
If you want to be technical, everyone does because they can just stop voting one person and start voting the other.
Regardless, I'm going to go ahead and just say I'm VT as well.
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Post Post #356 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:11 pm

Post by AliceK »

In post 356, Harumi Ayasato wrote:
In post 353, AliceK wrote:
In post 350, Harumi Ayasato wrote:Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.
Well, there are 7 people. 3 are voting Lunar, 3 are voting you. Guess who has a deciding vote.
If you want to be technical, everyone does because they can just stop voting one person and start voting the other.
Regardless, I'm going to go ahead and just say I'm VT as well.
I think this hesitation comes from scum, you probably asked your buddy what should you claim. Im go with you, I think Lunar is enver mafia tbh.
VOTE: Harumi Ayasato
My apologies.
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Post Post #357 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:15 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 355, Malakittens wrote:What’s really bad is reading these last few pages but I can’t help to think might be a TvT, but idk since Lunar feels like they are spiraling
Yeah I forgot to move my vote for a while, but I did move it eventually. I did a whole bunch in the intervening period.
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Post Post #358 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:16 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

This flips Town with 1 scum on the wagon I bet.
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Post Post #359 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:06 pm

Post by Harumi Ayasato »

Alright, here's my final thoughts on the game.

RayFrost and volxen are probably town. Alice I can't get a good read on, it seems like they're trying to solve the game so I'm inclined to think they're town but I can't tell for sure.
Mala and Surfer are null tells for me, Mala because they didn't talk much and Surfer because I noticed they kind of forged an alliance with me, which could be indicative of scum trying to make people think I'm his partner.
My personal best strategy going forward is to kill Lunar tomorrow. I doubt he's going to have new information tomorrow, he isn't a power role, and he's contentious enough that confirming his alignment is probably a good idea.

Also, no offense, RayFrost, but sayinig "scum would not act so antitown" is incredibly WIFOM and logic that I would avoid if at all possible.
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Post Post #360 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

I still disagree that I'm playing in an antitown manner. There's a difference between being anti-town and being atypical.
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Post Post #361 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:56 am

Post by Sirius9121 »

Official Vote Count


Harumi Ayasato
(4): RayFrost, StatueSurfer, Lunar Martian, AliceK
Lunar Martian
(3): Malakittens, Harumi Ayasato, volxen

Not Voting
(0):
None.


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline
: (expired on 2021-02-02 07:41:00)
余命数か月ばかりの恋に点滴で扶養する患者達
被害者の甘い期待を弔い悔悟の機会を躊躇うドクター
所以など行方知らず未知の病巣に臥す患者達
発熱が死因 然れば早期に躊躇すべきだったと知る放火犯
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Post Post #362 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:04 am

Post by Sirius9121 »

Harumi Ayasato ha been eliminated. They were a Town vanilla.

Night 2 ends in (expired on 2021-02-04 20:56:00)
余命数か月ばかりの恋に点滴で扶養する患者達
被害者の甘い期待を弔い悔悟の機会を躊躇うドクター
所以など行方知らず未知の病巣に臥す患者達
発熱が死因 然れば早期に躊躇すべきだったと知る放火犯
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Post Post #363 (ISO) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:58 pm

Post by Sirius9121 »

No One Was Eliminated throughout the night.


Day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-02-12 10:58:00)
余命数か月ばかりの恋に点滴で扶養する患者達
被害者の甘い期待を弔い悔悟の機会を躊躇うドクター
所以など行方知らず未知の病巣に臥す患者達
発熱が死因 然れば早期に躊躇すべきだったと知る放火犯
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Post Post #364 (ISO) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:13 pm

Post by Harumi Ayasato »

sets the town on fire
Defeating scum with the power of friendship!

Not Tarhalindur, though I do think he's a cool person. If Tarhalindur happens to see this, sorry for using your name everywhere else.
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Post Post #365 (ISO) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:51 pm

Post by RayFrost »

I still have to do a reread through the previous day and see what doesn't track, but I want to start the day off with this before people get too into things:

We are currently 6 alive, 4 town, 2 mafia.

If we lynch incorrectly here, we run a very high risk of losing the game (obviously, the kill could be prevented again, but we should not be banking on this).

So, we should
not
be lynching today unless we have
100% confidence
in the result.

There's two paths we can take with this game day with the no lynch in mind: one is we massclaim today. The other is we massclaim the following game day.

I personally feel that massclaiming today is best, as it avoids the risk of our power role(s) dying before they can share their information, but I'm willing to discuss either option.

I don't know how it's handled these days, but in my day we liked to do it popcorn style.

A popcorn style massclaim is where the town as a whole "votes" for the person they think is most likely to be mafia to claim first (as the earlier mafia claim, the less information they have to fakeclaim), and then that player decides who claims next (typically also choosing the person they suspect the most) until every player in the game has claimed.

Is anybody against this?
don't you feel silly now?
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Post Post #366 (ISO) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:43 pm

Post by StatueSurfer »

I agree that we should massclaim. However, I don't agree with doing it "popcorn" style... considering the activity of this game so far, if
everyone
has to vote for the next claim, we're likely to waste half the day or more. So I think everyone should just claim as soon as they can.

So I'll go first. Vanilla Townie.
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Post Post #367 (ISO) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:42 pm

Post by volxen »

I'm tracker.

I tracked Lunar on night one and they didn't target anyone.

I tracked Alice on night two and I got a "no result" PM back.
"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)
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Post Post #368 (ISO) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:25 am

Post by AliceK »

In post 368, volxen wrote:I'm tracker.

I tracked Lunar on night one and they didn't target anyone.

I tracked Alice on night two and I got a "no result" PM back.
That means we have 2 PR's which is good. At this point 2nd PR should claim as well. I am VT.
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Post Post #369 (ISO) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:49 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

VT.
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Post Post #370 (ISO) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:17 pm

Post by Malakittens »

Jk

1: ray
2 volx
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #371 (ISO) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:09 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

VOTE: Statue
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Post Post #372 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:50 am

Post by StatueSurfer »

Frost hasn't posted for over 30 hours by my count, so I'll see if I can change that.

VOTE: RayFrost
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Post Post #373 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:59 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 373, StatueSurfer wrote:Frost hasn't posted for over 30 hours by my count, so I'll see if I can change that.

VOTE: RayFrost
This isnt how you scumhunt.
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Post Post #374 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:01 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

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