Newbie 2086 - Reaction GIFs | End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 4-2

ɀefiend

(1): butterchurn

butterchurn

(1): ɀefiend

Not Voting

(1): catboi

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to eliminate.

Deadline: January 18, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2022-01-25 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[catboi]

VOTE: Butterchurn

catboi, if you have any questions lemme know. As for a scum-case, there's definitely a lot of wishy-washiness from butterchurn I can pull up throughout the first couple days that smelled scummy but flew under the radar. Mostly everyone pigeon-holed him as a town-lean and never looked back.

As for my town-case, I will say, I didn't play a spectacular town game but I honestly lost a lot of motivation after Greeting flipped town. It sucks to try so hard and be so wrong.

If anything I've learned from this game, butterchurn has played the "off-site 'newbie' scum" extremely well. I hope regardless of the outcome, people will give his scumplay a little more credit.

I suppose I should ask: Why did Greeting being

nightkilled

hurt your motivation? I've had plenty of times where someone I suspected was NKed but the effect was some combination of bewilderment and

relief

, because it meant I wouldn't waste an elimination on that person. This is an understandable mentality when you you end up wagoning someone and they flip town, for a nightkill it makes less sense, and it doesn't really explain...not even trying to figure out the cross yesterday.

[butterchurn]

[catboi]

Alright.

- zefiend's push on Greeting. His case is largely composed of either poking at logical issues, or taking Greeting's stated approach of working by associations and then nitpicking places where he wasn't necessarily always doing that. There isn't really a lot of reasoning from him along the lines of "would this be more likely to come from scum!greeting or town!greeting?". Maybe I'm biased, but I think my suspicion being due to Greeting's game, approach, and responses feeling off compared to his previous town games was more valid. As time went on, I started to come around on Greeting, since I think he started to look more town and your defense of him helped sway me. zefiend stayed tunneled on him, which, incidentally, is what I probably would have done if I were mafia there. I was also going to mention that zefiend's vote on Greeting came when there were 2 votes on Dunn and 1 on Greeting, which looks pretty bad to me, but then I realized that to you, my vote on Greeting when there's 2 on Dunn probably is pretty comparable, so I guess that doesn't help you much. I think the second vote there to tie things up is more suspicious, but again, I'm biased.
- the nightkill on Greeting. If scum zefiend is stuck voting Greeting here, it makes endgame significantly harder, as he has to either come up with a convincing reason not to vote Greeting, or make the vote anyway and confirm one of him/Greeting as scum. I don't think he wins that in the court of town opinion. A scumteam without zefiend, however, would want to keep his vote on Greeting, as already discussed. I also originally thought a Dunn team wouldn't want to kill Greeting, because in theory that pushes both me and zefiend towards Dunn in our suspicions, but if Dunn is partnered with zefiend that doesn't matter. zefiend can go wherever he wants -- he can choose to try to bus Dunn (that's what I think the best play would have been), or read the room and see where else he can go (the greedier and worse play, imo). zefiend is the one partner where I think a Dunn team killing Greeting makes sense, although I didn't recognize that immediately. Especially since Greeting would likely move onto zefiend if Dunn died.
- his approach to yesterDay. After his initial posts, he didn't really seem to have any interest in solving the game, just in defending himself. He cared MUCH more about setting up a cross with me for the next Day than he did about getting the first lim right, even way before it was clear that Dunn was more likely. He also never particularly seemed to come to a conclusion between you and Dunn. Town in that situation have to be considering things a lot more carefully, because all 3 town have to vote the same target and get it right (which I think me, you, and cape did pretty well at). zefiend wasn't really participating in that, and didn't have any sense of urgency or much care at all what the result of that Day was. Because as mafia, he knew that if Dunn was limmed, there would be one more Day to worry about, and if you were limmed instead, he wins.
- his slip, as I discussed in 763 and 770. This was what convinced me. I don't see any way that town zefiend makes that mistake. From some other players, I could see it, but not from him. He was pretty clearly reading my posts only caring about the dunn/zefiend pairing, since that's the one that exists. He also, when arguing back against it, just completely fails to comprehend that other pairings including him FMPOV were possible.


Also, now that it's confirmed (to me), kinda funny that NK15 got it right with his last post of Day 1. If only he had any credibility left after the fakeclaim:

Lim zefiend and dunn, unless they are prs. Tomorrow.

Have finally put in the time to ead and consider this, don't have much to say in response.


I plan on giving zefiend a chance to make his own arguments, but my patience is not infinite.

[ɀefiend]

Alright.

- zefiend's push on Greeting. His case is largely composed of either poking at logical issues, or taking Greeting's stated approach of working by associations and then nitpicking places where he wasn't necessarily always doing that. There isn't really a lot of reasoning from him along the lines of "would this be more likely to come from scum!greeting or town!greeting?". Maybe I'm biased, but I think my suspicion being due to Greeting's game, approach, and responses feeling off compared to his previous town games was more valid. As time went on, I started to come around on Greeting, since I think he started to look more town and your defense of him helped sway me. zefiend stayed tunneled on him, which, incidentally, is what I probably would have done if I were mafia there. I was also going to mention that zefiend's vote on Greeting came when there were 2 votes on Dunn and 1 on Greeting, which looks pretty bad to me, but then I realized that to you, my vote on Greeting when there's 2 on Dunn probably is pretty comparable, so I guess that doesn't help you much. I think the second vote there to tie things up is more suspicious, but again, I'm biased.

It was more so that you smoothly gravitated towards VOID and then used the "oops I wasn't around to reconsider" argument when he was limmed. Greeting was never in real danger of being limmed because I was/have been the scummiest townie in this game since D2, so nobody wanted to follow my push. And yes, it was wrong but

I

am biased in saying that my push was more justified than anyone else's that day. However VOID kinda just rolled over whereas I was actively pushing and would not have been an easy mislim.

- the nightkill on Greeting. If scum zefiend is stuck voting Greeting here, it makes endgame significantly harder, as he has to either come up with a convincing reason not to vote Greeting, or make the vote anyway and confirm one of him/Greeting as scum. I don't think he wins that in the court of town opinion. A scumteam without zefiend, however, would want to keep his vote on Greeting, as already discussed. I also originally thought a Dunn team wouldn't want to kill Greeting, because in theory that pushes both me and zefiend towards Dunn in our suspicions, but if Dunn is partnered with zefiend that doesn't matter. zefiend can go wherever he wants -- he can choose to try to bus Dunn (that's what I think the best play would have been), or read the room and see where else he can go (the greedier and worse play, imo). zefiend is the one partner where I think a Dunn team killing Greeting makes sense, although I didn't recognize that immediately. Especially since Greeting would likely move onto zefiend if Dunn died.

There's no way to know if Greeting would even be here in this endgame since a whole day passed between these events. And as discussed on D3, there's no guarantee based on who else died that I wouldn't have reconciliated with Greeting. Also, as stated above, I was the scummiest player going into Day 3 so it really didn't matter who you and Dunn killed. We just got lucky that Dunn got stuck in a cross with catboi. Let's say Cape was killed instead of Greeting: If the Dunn v catboi cross was inevitable then the zefiend v Greeting thing wouldn't even apply.

Also this line:

zefiend is the one partner where

I think

a Dunn team killing Greeting makes sense

is a cognitive slip because FYPOV you should

know

I'm scum, but you can't, so you wrote "I think" even though it should be 100%. But I won't dwell on this slip because there is enough to show that you are scum by play as well.

- his approach to yesterDay. After his initial posts, he didn't really seem to have any interest in solving the game, just in defending himself. He cared MUCH more about setting up a cross with me for the next Day than he did about getting the first lim right, even way before it was clear that Dunn was more likely. He also never particularly seemed to come to a conclusion between you and Dunn. Town in that situation have to be considering things a lot more carefully, because all 3 town have to vote the same target and get it right (which I think me, you, and cape did pretty well at). zefiend wasn't really participating in that, and didn't have any sense of urgency or much care at all what the result of that Day was. Because as mafia, he knew that if Dunn was limmed, there would be one more Day to worry about, and if you were limmed instead, he wins.

It's easy to mischaracterize my play yesterDay when you are the informed scum and I'm uninformed. Being cautious isn't scummy and without the Dunn v catboi cross I had literally everyone on the table, including Cape.

You say that I cared "MUCH" more about setting up a cross with you even though YOU were the first one to shade ME with suspicion yesterDay. So if you were following the fact that the lim was leaning towards Dunn, YOU were well-positioned to start "setting up a cross" with me.

- his slip, as I discussed in 763 and 770. This was what convinced me. I don't see any way that town zefiend makes that mistake. From some other players, I could see it, but not from him. He was pretty clearly reading my posts only caring about the dunn/zefiend pairing, since that's the one that exists. He also, when arguing back against it, just completely fails to comprehend that other pairings including him FMPOV were possible.

It's not that I neglected other pairings (in fact I commented on several others) - it's that from your "nighttime" analysis and subsequent post, your PoE from the Greeting kill only pointed to me in a situation that was not occurring (Dunn getting bussed). Since we know that Dunn was not bussed by anyone, it is confirmed that your take for {Dunn+zefiend} was logically inconsistent. I was calling you out for that and you've slyly dodged that bullet every time.

[ɀefiend]

I will ISO dive butterchurn soon.

There are several occurrences where his fence-sitting and wishy-washiness are evident. I, and several others, probably gave this the benefit of the doubt because this type of behavior is common from genuine newcomer townies. But I think there are plenty of signs in this game that butter is no newb - when I was town-leaning him it was partly due to the mind-meld based on his first logical quibble with Greeting. And that is something difficult for a newbie to grasp.

[butterchurn]

A few things worth addressing from that:

I was/have been the scummiest townie in this game since D2

I was the scummiest player going into Day 3

It's interesting that you state this twice. I'm not sure most people would agree with that, I certainly didn't on D2, but I guess it makes sense that it would look that way from your perspective, since you know that everything you do is scummy.

Also this line:

zefiend is the one partner where

I think

a Dunn team killing Greeting makes sense

is a cognitive slip because FYPOV you should

know

I'm scum, but you can't, so you wrote "I think" even though it should be 100%. But I won't dwell on this slip because there is enough to show that you are scum by play as well.

Nice try, but this is just silly. The "I think" in that is pretty clearly not referring to your scumminess, it's referring to whether a Dunn team killing Greeting makes sense. I'm still allowed to think things about a situation where I know you're scum. Here's another example: I think several things you've done as scum this game were mistakes. See?

It's not that I neglected other pairings (in fact I commented on several others) - it's that from your "nighttime" analysis and subsequent post, your PoE from the Greeting kill only pointed to me in a situation that was not occurring (Dunn getting bussed). Since we know that Dunn was not bussed by anyone, it is confirmed that your take for {Dunn+zefiend} was logically inconsistent. I was calling you out for that and you've slyly dodged that bullet every time.

First sentence is just wrong. My nighttime analysis actually pointed to you/catboi and you/cape, which obviously does not include Dunn getting bussed. I later reconsidered and added you/dunn to the pool of possibilities. Second and third sentence, I have addressed that already in 770, so that's also wrong.

[catboi]

Leaning toward voting zefiend, for the record. Willing to hear him out but should make my stance clear here.

[butterchurn]

If you have any more questions or things you'd like me to address, let me know.

[fferyllt]

ɀefiend has been prodded.

[ɀefiend]

I later reconsidered and added you/dunn to the pool of possibilities. Second and third sentence, I have addressed that already in 770, so that's also wrong.

You keep ignoring that your "reconsideration" was particularly convenient because that was the only pairing that would allow you to stay logically consistent as scum. But since we're arguing in circles, I'm gonna try and finally iso dive for a post.

[ɀefiend]

So this and some other posts I probably missed are just establishing Butter is not a newb, for reference:

So... anyone want to get in an argument over something minor that is probably a null tell, thus creating some content for everyone to discuss and react to? That's how things usually get started, right? Silence is good for scum.

Oh, and sorry if I get mixed up and use the wrong terminology (if I ever say "rogue", I mean "mafia"). Old habits. Y'all use "NIA" instead of "null tell", I think.

This might be the first time someone points out Butter's flip-flopping in-thread (also bolded an extra phrase for fence-sittiness):

To explain, I did notice that even before you posted about it. I just did not think it was worth mentioning at the time since notscience did participate by calling those two out and it wasn't just a "busy, will post later" post like cape's. But I still did notice a similarity. I thought it was worth mentioning once I saw that someone else did notice it and there might actually be something there.
I guess I am trying to make reads from the little we have. As for leaving myself open, I do lean towards a scum read on cape but you are right I could go in either direction as I am unsure about it.

Alright.

This doesn't do anything to diminish my suspicion, but it doesn't increase it either

. Seems like a response that would be in character for either side. Thanks for the further explanation of your thoughts.

This sort of flip-flopping kinda post probably only comes from town. I feel like if mafia were to do something like this it would make a lot less sense or heavily favor one side over the other.

FWIW I'm not sure if you misunderstood that section or if I was unclear in my phrasing, but I wasn't flipflopping in that. All of those sentences were on the same track, of saying that notscience's response seems to be a reasonable explanation of his thoughts (first sentence), but I'm not convinced by his case (next three sentences).

----

ahhlo, thought you'd be posting every day, where you at?

I think the post is is telling because Cape actually calls the flip-flopping a town-read, but butter feels (naturally) inclined to defend himself from the allegation anyway. Ironically, Cape says that the flip-floppiness would be one-sided if it came from scum, which Butter acknowledges in a 1:3 sentence ratio. So, Cape had butter on his radar very early but never pursued it, for shame.

---

Some early hedging on VOID:

RE: further VOID discussion, I was hesitant to let myself find his response suspicious partially because to me it seemed like it would be a particularly bold (read: dumb) scum play to respond to a charge of having wishy-washy and manufactured-sounding content with... more of the same tone, and even more extreme hedging.

It certainly could be new player not sure how to effectively play scum, but to my eyes it also believably reads as new town who is lacking confidence in their own thoughts

, and remaining consistent in that.

It does seem like an easy (albeit fair) thing to pick on, though, and I was interested to see who would.

More speculation on VOID. Note that butter hasn't yet voted VOID here despite being his top scumread (relevant on the next Day when he does vote VOID):

To expand on that last point a bit -- there's certain tells that people tend to find "objectively" suspicious, as in, they don't really require any nuance or gut to notice, and they usually are immediately obvious to people with experience. It's certainly not bad town play to call these out (as giving them a pass can allow scum to get away with obvious mistakes), and some people like to play with that "see tell call tell" mentality. I read a couple newbie games before this and saw multiple cases of experienced town tunneling on newbie town for making a flagrant tell or two, so it definitely happens. However, especially in games with a mix of new players and more experienced players, focusing on these tells is a pretty safe place for scum to hide. The "mistakes" (as they are mistakes whether the perpetrator is town or scum, since it's either suspicious scum play or bad town play) tend to be more prevalent among newer players, and it's hard to argue against someone who is calling them out since it's easy for them to make a logically sound argument.

Now, most of this isn't suuuper relevant here, especially

because I'm still leaning scum on VOID from that earlier post even if the later one didn't push the needle for me

, and if he is scum then obviously this doesn't apply. But, especially later in the game once we know some alignments, if I'm still around I'll be keeping an eye on those who make a habit of relying on this type of play.

Here is another contradictory / hedgey statement on VOID:

snip

Around here butterchurn, why were you still voting notscience?

The vote was leftover from RVS on who he replaced. But at that point, he was pushing a narrative that didn't really seem believable to me, and that gave me pause.

I didn't feel my suspicion of VOID was enough to warrant switching my vote.

I'm still getting used to the more... cavalier attitude towards votes that this site has.

Since he was my highest suspicion, I guess I could have, or just unvoted.

Didn't seem to matter much, still don't think it does, but I hope that clarifies. Also, for what it's worth, notscience's posts since then have read much more town to me, although that first push still rings alarm bells for me whenever I go back to it.

snip

What I'm trying to show here is a pattern of sitting around justifying shade against VOID due to VOID's mislim potential, but never actually pulling the trigger with a vote or urging others to start a wagon. This hesitance to be the first vote is something we see again on the following Day when VOID is actually limmed.

---

Here butterchurn stages a progression of suspicion to townread on GeorgeBailey (dunn slot) with absolutely nothing in between. He had called out GB for lurking but never outright expressed suspicion and here he doesn't explain how GB is suddenly trending to a townread.

I like both of those posts for the most part. I also felt questionable about cape's latest, and it appearing potentially opportunistic is a good point that I hadn't considered. Was leaning towards suspicion with GeorgeBailey, now trending slightly the other direction.

That vote puts NK15 at E-1, correct?

Note the wording here "extremely skeptical of" regarding the NK15 wagon:

Hmm. I was thinking you would say that the first clause meant "I don't have much hopes/enthusiasm that knowing the alignment of this slot will give us much information due to their minimal posting". That, at least, makes sense coming from a town perspective, and was what I meant when I said I realized I might have misinterpreted.

With your explanation, though... I actually am a little suspicious of it, since based on how you explained what you meant, it reads instead as potentially pre-emptively distancing yourself from the result that you're voting for. And following that narrative, once that draws attention and potentially some suspicion, your play would likely be to just go all in on NK15 and give up on your original expression of doubt, which is what you've done. I wasn't particularly suspicious before, and still am not enough to vote or anything (especially since

this case depends on NK15 being town, which I'm currently extremely skeptical of

), but I do at least see a potential scum-aligned reasoning behind this pattern of posts and that concerns me.

But here, butter conveniently mentions that after NK15 gets flipped, he will have a new scumread. He also knows that the NK15 won't flip scum, so this whole 'either way NK15 flips' is just posturing.

In case it was unclear, by distancing I didn't mean distancing from a scum partner (I realize that's how it's often used, perhaps it was a poor choice of words on my part), I meant how you were expressing doubt on a wagon that you had already joined. If NK15 did get eliminated and flipped town, I would read that behavior as scum. And of course you would do it before his elimination is guaranteed, because doing it later and drawing attention to it is much more obvious and suspicious. From 2084 you didn't seem like the kind of player to hedge your bets or fence sit very much as town. If you were suspicious of someone you tended to have a bit of confirmation bias and twist more reasons into suspicion, and see anything through that lens (mostly noticeable when you made a case on marcistar). In this case it felt like the opposite.

But again, I'm still most suspicious of NK15, and if he is eliminated and ends up being scum, this point would be irrelevant, and I would probably townread you instead. So all told, I'm not that suspicious now, but it did stand out to me as a pattern of scumplay if certain conditions end up being true.

This sort of fingering of someone else while charging ahead on the mislim wagon is typical scumplay. It's a lose-lose situation for the FoS'd person because butter already knows the outcome, AND he gets to absolve himself for a "bad vote." Of course, NK 15 didn't do us any favors by fake-claiming, but in a vacuum this is a lite version of lining up lims.

---

Here's some nice fluff on Dunn and some more hedging on me and catboi. Keep in mind here, because the "zefiend+Dunn" pairing is a long ways off, and there is absolutely no progression on Dunn that isn't neutral/positive.

What do you think of:

catboi

,

Dunnstral

and

ɀefiend

, three players I mentioned earlier?

Not very firm reads on any of them.

- Slight townlean on dunn, as almost everything he's said has made sense to me and seems well-reasoned. Not enough posts to have a strong feeling, but nothing has made me suspicious as of yet.
- zefiend I feel like has just not really been on my radar for whatever reason. I've re-read him a couple times to try to get a read, and it just feels like we're on different wavelengths. My instinct is to find that suspicious, but the arguments against him don't convince me much. He's said a few things I agree with, and a few things that that just seem strange but not particularly AI.
- catboi I'm somewhat conflicted on. In general I would say slightly leaning town, but there's been a couple things that give me pause, and his reads don't align with mine at all.

---

Let's wrap up D1 and D2 with butter's "progression" on VOID:

I've been watching the Void posts, apologies for not engaging with your suspicions of them, catboi, but I was still thinking about them. For a bit I just read him as newbie lacking confidence, but wanted to see if he would make an effort to improve his posting and have more opinions. I didn't want to post about it much because I was curious to see if he would continue to coast and follow along with the general trends if there wasn't much pressure on him and he didn't think he was in danger. He has, and my opinion has changed. I think town at this point would have done more, while scum would likely think they could get away with it. The biggest thing that I notice is that most of the points that he is making against others look specifically to be things that he has made an effort to avoid doing. That reads to me like newbie scum who only has a limited mindset of what things are suspicious, and is trying to both call those things out while avoid doing them himself. I find that newbie town will more often make the same tells that they call others out for, because they are just calling out genuine suspicion and not following any sort of formula. I would be willing to vote here.

Alright, if you say so. Void is my preference at the moment.

VOTE: VOID

I believe the totality of these posts shows butter's opportunistic shading and hedging. It is hard for scum to take charge and power mislim because instinctively, being wrong looks bad. Butter's initial stance on greeting and cape were being his top scumreads that Day, but ultimately never committing to them. The VOID vote is about as safe as possible for scum to make. When you compare that to my activity, yes I death-tunneled Greeting, but I had conviction the whole way through because I wasn't afraid of being wrong (in fact I truly believed I wasn't wrong).

[ɀefiend]

catboi let me know if you are even interested in reading any more of these. I can go through Day 3 as well but if you are dead set on me I would like you to explain why before you hammer.

I know I have been stubborn, I've been prodded, I've been aggressive, and I've been wrong. But I've never not been genuine.

I can also dig up my other town games on the site and you will see a similar pattern: I am scummy as town and it allows me to survive to the endgame. However in this case I believe it's the first time I'm not the obvious townie/cleared/hammerer.

Conversely if you look at my scum games, I let better players take charge and I get thrown under the bus/take a bullet if needed. If I happen to be the "better" player then we usually lose quick and dirty.

[catboi]

I believe in giving everyone a chance to say their piece at endgame rather than cutting them off, so, no, I'm not dead-set on my vote. I will read what you write and try to give it consideration. The difficulty is that I can't really reset my mind and read the game with totally fresh eyes, I have prior assumptions I'm carrying into the day.

For what it's worth, I did take a look at some of your older games, but I don't really trust my own ability to meta read someone, especially when any relevant meta is years out of date.


It's not impossible for me to see narratives either way, given the relative lack of readable content to work with. The trouble is that I have to ask why butterchurn as scum leaves me alive when I was visibly paranoid about him yesterday, when cape clearly wasn't really considering him as scum. That's two straight nights in a row where the kills don't really benefit him as scum, but do benefit you.

[butterchurn]

So this and some other posts I probably missed are just establishing Butter is not a newb, for reference:

I don't know why you're acting like I was playing up my newness or hiding behind it in any way. I think I was pretty clear from the start that I have a lot of experience, just not on this site or recently. I think at one point I even said that I wanted people to know my experience level so that they could have more accurate reads on me.

Here butterchurn stages a progression of suspicion to townread on GeorgeBailey (dunn slot) with absolutely nothing in between. He had called out GB for lurking but never outright expressed suspicion and here he doesn't explain how GB is suddenly trending to a townread.

I explained this further in 239. It was not a townread and nowhere did I say it was.

This hesitance to be the first vote is something we see again on the following Day when VOID is actually limmed.

I wasn't hesitant to be the first vote on NK15. And I think my thought process on Void is clear. His first post looked bad, he continued along the same path and so I thought he might just be a newbie lacking confidence, and then the pattern continued for long enough to where it got to the point where I thought he would have improved his content by then if he were town. As town, I'm willing to consider all options and re-evaluate my positions. As scum it would serve me better to stay tunnelled on things and "show conviction", like you did with Greeting. If I were scum and you were town, that would mean that when we both were voting Greeting, I have a townie who is tunnelled on the wagon I started. Why would I ever leave it?

This sort of fingering of someone else while charging ahead on the mislim wagon is typical scumplay. It's a lose-lose situation for the FoS'd person because butter already knows the outcome, AND he gets to absolve himself for a "bad vote." Of course, NK 15 didn't do us any favors by fake-claiming, but in a vacuum this is a lite version of lining up lims.

Not much to say here cause it's a reasonable point. I think scum does do that pretty often, and I'm suspicious of it myself when people do it. All I can say is that it was something I noticed at the time and that I thought was worth mentioning, even if it didn't line up with what I at the time thought was most likely. I think I look at things from this sort of "what if I'm wrong" angle more often as town, though. As scum I'm usually more concerned with keeping an internally consistent view of the gamestate. I don't expect these "I do this more as town" type arguments to be very convincing, by the way, since I have no established meta on this site, but I might as well explain my side of things.

I believe the totality of these posts shows butter's opportunistic shading and hedging. It is hard for scum to take charge and power mislim because instinctively, being wrong looks bad. Butter's initial stance on greeting and cape were being his top scumreads that Day, but ultimately never committing to them. The VOID vote is about as safe as possible for scum to make. When you compare that to my activity, yes I death-tunneled Greeting, but I had conviction the whole way through because I wasn't afraid of being wrong (in fact I truly believed I wasn't wrong).

I generally care more about being wrong as town, actually. I don't want to make a mistake and lead another town to their elimination. And how is you saying that I wanted to avoid looking bad for being wrong cohesive with you saying that my vote on void was as safe as possible? I think that vote looked terrible, and I regret making it.


I will say that I'm glad you decided to put some effort in. I would have been somewhat disappointed if both mafia just gave up.

[ɀefiend]

I believe in giving everyone a chance to say their piece at endgame rather than cutting them off, so, no, I'm not dead-set on my vote. I will read what you write and try to give it consideration. The difficulty is that I can't really reset my mind and read the game with totally fresh eyes, I have prior assumptions I'm carrying into the day.

For what it's worth, I did take a look at some of your older games, but I don't really trust my own ability to meta read someone, especially when any relevant meta is years out of date.


It's not impossible for me to see narratives either way, given the relative lack of readable content to work with. The trouble is that I have to ask why butterchurn as scum leaves me alive when I was visibly paranoid about him yesterday, when cape clearly wasn't really considering him as scum. That's two straight nights in a row where the kills don't really benefit him as scum, but do benefit you.

Was Cape really considering me as scum? I don't know why butter killed him - maybe he felt that your turnaround on Greeting and working with him on the VOID lim was enough cohesion between the two of you. Maybe he thought Cape would be more likely to reconsider in ELO. Or maybe he noticed that you've had soft suspicion on me all game and that would be hard for you to shake off. To me, NK analysis in a vanillaish game is very superficial. I know a lot of people use it in ELO but I don't think I could even fake it if I were scum in a leveraged position. Butter used it a lot yesterDay but hasn't said much about it toDay.

Maybe just look at this ELO in a vacuum if you're having a hard time recontextualizing the game from the start? Don't ignore the past, obviously, just use it as reference for what we're saying now.

[ɀefiend]

So this and some other posts I probably missed are just establishing Butter is not a newb, for reference:

I don't know why you're acting like I was playing up my newness or hiding behind it in any way. I think I was pretty clear from the start that I have a lot of experience, just not on this site or recently. I think at one point I even said that I wanted people to know my experience level so that they could have more accurate reads on me.

I wasn't trying to make this a point of contention I'm just establishing it as a fact, glad we can agree on that.

Here butterchurn stages a progression of suspicion to townread on GeorgeBailey (dunn slot) with absolutely nothing in between. He had called out GB for lurking but never outright expressed suspicion and here he doesn't explain how GB is suddenly trending to a townread.

I explained this further in 239. It was not a townread and nowhere did I say it was.

Forgive me for assuming that the opposite of a FoS is in some sort of fashion a town read. Just because you didn't use the specific term doesn't mean we can't parse what you were implying.

This hesitance to be the first vote is something we see again on the following Day when VOID is actually limmed.

I wasn't hesitant to be the first vote on NK15. And I think my thought process on Void is clear. His first post looked bad, he continued along the same path and so I thought he might just be a newbie lacking confidence, and then the pattern continued for long enough to where it got to the point where I thought he would have improved his content by then if he were town. As town, I'm willing to consider all options and re-evaluate my positions. As scum it would serve me better to stay tunnelled on things and "show conviction", like you did with Greeting. If I were scum and you were town, that would mean that when we both were voting Greeting, I have a townie who is tunnelled on the wagon I started. Why would I ever leave it?

Yes, VOID'S posts were bad in a vacuum but you specifically made several points about how easy it would be for scum to pick him apart, and how you'd "be keeping an eye" on anyone who tried it later in the game, and yet you brazenly did it yourself.

About Greeting, because the wagon had no steam, and VOID'S did.

I believe the totality of these posts shows butter's opportunistic shading and hedging. It is hard for scum to take charge and power mislim because instinctively, being wrong looks bad. Butter's initial stance on greeting and cape were being his top scumreads that Day, but ultimately never committing to them. The VOID vote is about as safe as possible for scum to make. When you compare that to my activity, yes I death-tunneled Greeting, but I had conviction the whole way through because I wasn't afraid of being wrong (in fact I truly believed I wasn't wrong).

I generally care more about being wrong as town, actually. I don't want to make a mistake and lead another town to their elimination. And how is you saying that I wanted to avoid looking bad for being wrong cohesive with you saying that my vote on void was as safe as possible? I think that vote looked terrible, and I regret making it.

Well that remains to be seen as I haven't seen you play as Town yet.

It's cohesive because you didn't spearhead the VOID lim. You didn't lazy wagon it either, but your vote is "safe" because it's clumped in the middle of the wagon.

I will say that I'm glad you decided to put some effort in. I would have been somewhat disappointed if both mafia just gave up.

I lost motivation after Greeting flipped Town but I would never give up a game as any role. Especially if there's a chance catboi will come around on me I'm willing to stick it out.

I also don't think your partner gave up I just think he/you figured that you're in such a good town-read position that you could afford to sac him.

This also beats the old dead horse about: FYPOV if Dunn and I were scum then we'd have seen a bus since our position was so bad we needed to make a play like that. We don't have to keep doing the old song and dance about this one - you've word wiggled your way out and I don't think catboi is paying much attention to semantics this game.

[fferyllt]

I'm traveling today and will not be online much until late tonight. Please PM both Cabd and me with any questions, etc.

[butterchurn]

Was Cape really considering me as scum? I don't know why butter killed him - maybe he felt that your turnaround on Greeting and working with him on the VOID lim was enough cohesion between the two of you. Maybe he thought Cape would be more likely to reconsider in ELO. Or maybe he noticed that you've had soft suspicion on me all game and that would be hard for you to shake off. To me, NK analysis in a vanillaish game is very superficial. I know a lot of people use it in ELO but I don't think I could even fake it if I were scum in a leveraged position. Butter used it a lot yesterDay but hasn't said much about it toDay.

Maybe just look at this ELO in a vacuum if you're having a hard time recontextualizing the game from the start? Don't ignore the past, obviously, just use it as reference for what we're saying now.

NK analysis I think is useful when there's more players and more options and yet the options are still narrow enough to allow for some analysis. At this point, I don't think it's that useful. I already know why you killed Cape, and I think you just made it even more obvious to everyone.

catboi has already stated several times that he has a bad record in ELO due to second-guessing himself and overthinking, and that his accuracy of reads are significantly worse when he re-assesses things in ELO. I don't think it would be physically possible for you to be more blatant about your attempt to prey on that tendency.

This also beats the old dead horse about: FYPOV if Dunn and I were scum then we'd have seen a bus since our position was so bad we needed to make a play like that. We don't have to keep doing the old song and dance about this one - you've word wiggled your way out and I don't think catboi is paying much attention to semantics this game.

I hope he is paying attention, because you have apparently decided to just repeatedly say that you came out on top of the point about your logical mistake despite all evidence to the contrary.

As for the first point, I agree with you that you should have bussed Dunn. That's what I would have expected you to try, I think this game would have been a easier for you if you had. But you got greedy, probably because I expressed a townlean on Dunn early in the day based on the Greeting kill, and thought you could sit back and let town convince themselves to vote wrong. I actually think that what you said here is likely true:

Conversely if you look at my scum games, I let better players take charge and I get thrown under the bus/take a bullet if needed. If I happen to be the "better" player then we usually lose quick and dirty.

You were hesitant to bus Dunn even when you probably should have because you didn't want to be the last one alive (a bus the other direction was obviously not going to happen). You wanted to try to win yesterDay so you wouldn't have to be the "better" player.

[catboi]

been putting this off because thinking is pain but will try to get to responding in a bit

[ɀefiend]

Was Cape really considering me as scum? I don't know why butter killed him - maybe he felt that your turnaround on Greeting and working with him on the VOID lim was enough cohesion between the two of you. Maybe he thought Cape would be more likely to reconsider in ELO. Or maybe he noticed that you've had soft suspicion on me all game and that would be hard for you to shake off. To me, NK analysis in a vanillaish game is very superficial. I know a lot of people use it in ELO but I don't think I could even fake it if I were scum in a leveraged position. Butter used it a lot yesterDay but hasn't said much about it toDay.

Maybe just look at this ELO in a vacuum if you're having a hard time recontextualizing the game from the start? Don't ignore the past, obviously, just use it as reference for what we're saying now.

NK analysis I think is useful when there's more players and more options and yet the options are still narrow enough to allow for some analysis. At this point, I don't think it's that useful. I already know why you killed Cape, and I think you just made it even more obvious to everyone.

catboi has already stated several times that he has a bad record in ELO due to second-guessing himself and overthinking, and that his accuracy of reads are significantly worse when he re-assesses things in ELO. I don't think it would be physically possible for you to be more blatant about your attempt to prey on that tendency.

First of all I don't even remember him saying that so if anyone is showing motive it's you, secondly even if I were lying about remembering, we both have access to catboi's meta so I don't see how pointing it out incriminates me only.

This also beats the old dead horse about: FYPOV if Dunn and I were scum then we'd have seen a bus since our position was so bad we needed to make a play like that. We don't have to keep doing the old song and dance about this one - you've word wiggled your way out and I don't think catboi is paying much attention to semantics this game.

I hope he is paying attention, because you have apparently decided to just repeatedly say that you came out on top of the point about your logical mistake despite all evidence to the contrary.

As for the first point, I agree with you that you should have bussed Dunn. That's what I would have expected you to try, I think this game would have been a easier for you if you had. But you got greedy, probably because I expressed a townlean on Dunn early in the day based on the Greeting kill, and thought you could sit back and let town convince themselves to vote wrong. I actually think that what you said here is likely true:

Conversely if you look at my scum games, I let better players take charge and I get thrown under the bus/take a bullet if needed. If I happen to be the "better" player then we usually lose quick and dirty.

You were hesitant to bus Dunn even when you probably should have because you didn't want to be the last one alive (a bus the other direction was obviously not going to happen). You wanted to try to win yesterDay so you wouldn't have to be the "better" player.

None of your pairings were true because you're scum and when called out on the impossibility of them, you deflect to talking about optimal scum strategy. Instead of you know, explaining your actual reads/progression on Dunn (which you never did, all game). Makes it pretty easy to townbin him when convenient and vote him out when the writing's on the wall.

[catboi]

My view of 804 is that it's not really addressing butterchurn's arguments in a substantive way.

[catboi]

I'm trying to read the posts and I just can't think anything about them at all

my brain refuses to comprehend the words on the screen

[catboi]

I believe in giving everyone a chance to say their piece at endgame rather than cutting them off, so, no, I'm not dead-set on my vote. I will read what you write and try to give it consideration. The difficulty is that I can't really reset my mind and read the game with totally fresh eyes, I have prior assumptions I'm carrying into the day.

For what it's worth, I did take a look at some of your older games, but I don't really trust my own ability to meta read someone, especially when any relevant meta is years out of date.


It's not impossible for me to see narratives either way, given the relative lack of readable content to work with. The trouble is that I have to ask why butterchurn as scum leaves me alive when I was visibly paranoid about him yesterday, when cape clearly wasn't really considering him as scum. That's two straight nights in a row where the kills don't really benefit him as scum, but do benefit you.

Was Cape really considering me as scum? I don't know why butter killed him - maybe he felt that your turnaround on Greeting and working with him on the VOID lim was enough cohesion between the two of you. Maybe he thought Cape would be more likely to reconsider in ELO. Or maybe he noticed that you've had soft suspicion on me all game and that would be hard for you to shake off. To me, NK analysis in a vanillaish game is very superficial. I know a lot of people use it in ELO but I don't think I could even fake it if I were scum in a leveraged position. Butter used it a lot yesterDay but hasn't said much about it toDay.

Maybe just look at this ELO in a vacuum if you're having a hard time recontextualizing the game from the start? Don't ignore the past, obviously, just use it as reference for what we're saying now.

cape flat-out said he

wasn't

considering butterchurn as scum. And I think analyzing nightkills are

only

valuable when the game is effectively mountainous with no power roles or clears (whether true clears or simply de facto clears)

Looking at the game in a vacuum isn't really possible. My prior view is always going to exist, even if I only focus on the content today.

[butterchurn]

First of all I don't even remember him saying that so if anyone is showing motive it's you, secondly even if I were lying about remembering, we both have access to catboi's meta so I don't see how pointing it out incriminates me only.

In 595, 677, and 725. But good luck convincing catboi that you were genuinely trying to come to a decision between him and Dunn yesterDay when you apparently weren't even reading his posts!

None of your pairings were true because you're scum and when called out on the impossibility of them, you deflect to talking about optimal scum strategy. Instead of you know, explaining your actual reads/progression on Dunn (which you never did, all game). Makes it pretty easy to townbin him when convenient and vote him out when the writing's on the wall.

Kind of getting tired of you just lying and me responding with "that's not true", and then you just lying again. You never called out the impossibility of my pairings because yesterDay all of the pairings were possible at the start of Day, obviously, and even after the catboi/Dunn cross, any team involving either one of them was still possible. That includes you/catboi, you/cape, you/dunn, dunn/catboi, dunn/cape. You just keep doubling down on being wrong about that and pretending like you caught me in some inconsistency, and it's getting ridiculous. I also did explain my progression on Dunn to catboi when he asked (in 751), but you've already shown that you haven't really been reading, so I don't expect you to have seen that.