Newbie 2110 - Postgame

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #1275 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 7:08 am

Post by Alianna »

3.01
Votecount 3.01


Radical Rat (E-2): BlueBloodedToffee, Aureal
Aureal (1): bewolkt

Not Voting (3): Radical Rat, Dionysus, skitter30

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an elimination and 3 votes to secure a no-elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-02-19 12:51:41).
I townread Alianna.

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Post Post #1276 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:01 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1227, Aureal wrote: Yeah Gimli's kinda breaking down here. I think he's maybe trying to imply that he wouldn't kill you since you'd pretty much townlocked each other over the crosspost? So why would he as mafia kill the person who's towning him most? Actually the fact that you were the target made me more wary of him, as that would just ensure your townlock read of him stayed in place for the rest of us (I'm thinking furtive probably had thoughts along those lines too from the way he's acted towards Gimli today).

And the whole fakeclaim thing was pretty nutty either align but I'm leaning towards it being more scum-aligned. Maybe feeling you out to see how far you trusted him? I've been turning it over in my head and the only way I could see him doing it as town is if he thought you were the tracker, as why would he trust us potato newbies to not just promptly counter claim him?

VOTE: Gimli
In post 1239, Radical Rat wrote: Got bored reading the thread proper around page 15ish, decided to start ISOing wagons instead

Apparently Gimli has correctly noticed PR crumbs, tried to eliminate there, and also fakeclaimed Tracker in a weird gambit to... What, reverse psychology a mislim on me with a non-guilty result?

Why haven't we voted him out already?
VOTE: Gimli
In post 1241, Radical Rat wrote: Also, you can't spell Dionysus without SUS.
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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Post Post #1277 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:01 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

These posts are interesting
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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Post Post #1278 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:13 am

Post by Aureal »

I think his later explanation for Gimli's fakeclaim was more interesting, it was probably the correct one because he saw it in the mafia PT. If Gimli was even bothering to post there with KT as a partner. :lol:

But yeah, w/e, as long as it doesn't turn out to be you after all. 66% chance of there being a tracker
could
make mafia decide not to rolecop if they thought you were really likely to be the one to get tracked. But Gimli probably wouldn't call you out at the end of D1 like that if they were thinking you were already so suspicious that you'd likely draw a tracker's attention. And heck, the other option is jailkeep, so trying to multitask could even bite them in the butt if jailkeep targeted the rolecop. So it's not even clear that they'd multitask in the first place.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
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Post Post #1279 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:19 am

Post by bewolkt »

In post 1277, BlueBloodedToffee wrote: These posts are interesting
What do you think of them?
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Post Post #1280 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:19 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Aureal might be scum
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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Post Post #1281 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:20 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I don't know if she would bait me so hard into engaging with her if she was though?
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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Post Post #1282 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 11:23 am

Post by Dionysus »

100% cleared
Bewolkt

95% cleared
Skitter

80% cleared
Bbt

Main suspects
Aureal
RR

So the reason Skitter isn't 100% clear is because there is a really small chance mafia no killed. Bbt because he could have chosen not to rolecop. I think this scenario is more likely than the NK, but in N1 when there is a townie claiming a PR then it wouldn't make sense not to do this.

This only really leaves two candidates which feels like we are basically in an auto win situation unless we are really unlucky. I don't have a gut read on either so I am not going to vote yet and will read both their ISOs and then make a call. But if we're wrong we can just go for the other one tomorrow.
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Post Post #1283 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:47 pm

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 1282, Dionysus wrote: 100% cleared
Bewolkt

95% cleared
Skitter

80% cleared
Bbt

Main suspects
Aureal
RR

So the reason Skitter isn't 100% clear is because there is a really small chance mafia no killed. Bbt because he could have chosen not to rolecop. I think this scenario is more likely than the NK, but in N1 when there is a townie claiming a PR then it wouldn't make sense not to do this.

This only really leaves two candidates which feels like we are basically in an auto win situation unless we are really unlucky. I don't have a gut read on either so I am not going to vote yet and will read both their ISOs and then make a call. But if we're wrong we can just go for the other one tomorrow.
There's only one scum left. The kill happened. BBT going nowhere is a 100% hard clear. Why are you trying to frame it otherwise?

VOTE: Dionysus
Maybe the real Mafia was the friends we made along the way

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Post Post #1284 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:48 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Because he is a newbie?

That's probably your easiest push as scum though.
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Post Post #1285 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:52 pm

Post by Radical Rat »

He's new here, sure, but didn't he say he had off-site experience earlier?

Either way though, there are just too many conftown for scum to squeeze a victory through. Their only real option is to start casting doubt on them, to make it viable to push there when the rest of us are gone.
Maybe the real Mafia was the friends we made along the way

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Post Post #1286 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:57 pm

Post by Aureal »

Yeah let's vote the 100% clear guy, makes total sense. :lol:

Dion's analysis is totally correct, and you know it's the only chance you have, to foist a lim off onto BBT, rather than you.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
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Post Post #1287 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:28 pm

Post by Radical Rat »

What? I'm not voting BBT???
Maybe the real Mafia was the friends we made along the way

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Post Post #1288 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:28 pm

Post by Radical Rat »

I'm explicitly saying BBT is 100% Town, and expressing suspicion at Dionysus for trying to say he ISN'T
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Post Post #1289 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 9:25 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

RR had already lined up Dion as a suspect yesterday, I expect he was going to try and pivot off Gimli if he could.
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Post Post #1290 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 9:34 pm

Post by Dionysus »

In post 1283, Radical Rat wrote:
In post 1282, Dionysus wrote: 100% cleared
Bewolkt

95% cleared
Skitter

80% cleared
Bbt

Main suspects
Aureal
RR

So the reason Skitter isn't 100% clear is because there is a really small chance mafia no killed. Bbt because he could have chosen not to rolecop. I think this scenario is more likely than the NK, but in N1 when there is a townie claiming a PR then it wouldn't make sense not to do this.

This only really leaves two candidates which feels like we are basically in an auto win situation unless we are really unlucky. I don't have a gut read on either so I am not going to vote yet and will read both their ISOs and then make a call. But if we're wrong we can just go for the other one tomorrow.
There's only one scum left. The kill happened. BBT going nowhere is a 100% hard clear. Why are you trying to frame it otherwise?

VOTE: Dionysus
Did you... even read my post?
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Post Post #1291 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 9:39 pm

Post by bewolkt »

In post 1283, Radical Rat wrote: There's only one scum left. The kill happened. BBT going nowhere is a 100% hard clear. Why are you trying to frame it otherwise?

VOTE: Dionysus
What? I already said Dio is cleared
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Post Post #1292 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 9:45 pm

Post by Dionysus »

In post 1288, Radical Rat wrote: I'm explicitly saying BBT is 100% Town, and expressing suspicion at Dionysus for trying to say he ISN'T
Bbt isn't 100% cleared tho. He was tracked N1.
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Post Post #1293 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:07 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I'm pretty much cleared. I would have to be the Rolecop if I were scum and I would 100% have used my ability on N1
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Post Post #1294 (ISO) » Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:21 pm

Post by Dionysus »

In post 1293, BlueBloodedToffee wrote: I'm pretty much cleared. I would have to be the Rolecop if I were scum and I would 100% have used my ability on N1
Yeah, I know. That's why if you actually read my post you'll see that I don't have any interest in hunting scum from a pool that includes you ;)

All I'm saying is that you're not 100%, which shouldn't be controversial because it *is possible* that as rolecop you chose not to use your power N1. Please note the difference between "possible" and "likely".
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Post Post #1295 (ISO) » Mon Feb 13, 2023 12:00 am

Post by Radical Rat »

I swear I thought you said you tracked BBT again. Sorry.

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #1296 (ISO) » Mon Feb 13, 2023 12:01 am

Post by Radical Rat »

In that case it has to be Aureal by PoE.

VOTE: Aureal
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Post Post #1297 (ISO) » Mon Feb 13, 2023 12:04 am

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 1294, Dionysus wrote:
In post 1293, BlueBloodedToffee wrote: I'm pretty much cleared. I would have to be the Rolecop if I were scum and I would 100% have used my ability on N1
Yeah, I know. That's why if you actually read my post you'll see that I don't have any interest in hunting scum from a pool that includes you ;)

All I'm saying is that you're not 100%, which shouldn't be controversial because it *is possible* that as rolecop you chose not to use your power N1. Please note the difference between "possible" and "likely".
Yeah, you're right. My thinking was you needed to plant that seed early so after you eliminated me and Aureal you'd have someone left to push. But that was based on me misreading the track target, and you have the clear I thought BBT did. Sorry
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Post Post #1298 (ISO) » Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:43 am

Post by Dionysus »

VOTE: radical rat
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Post Post #1299 (ISO) » Mon Feb 13, 2023 3:52 am

Post by Dionysus »

Actually changing my mind having reread the aureal iso. She barely interacted with Gimli at all and when she did 95% of it was friendly. She didn't probe Gimli at all or express even a lick of doubt about him once. The sum total of her contributions to the fake tracker claim was to say that it was dumb, but didn't spend any time trying to understand wtf was happening there. It also doesn't seem like that incident generated any suspicion for her like it clearly did others. Then out of nowhere she busses him at the end of d2? There is no read there, or progression. This plus Gimli sort of tunnelled KT, which I don't think is an implausible thing for him to do as scum (he seems to favour high risk; high reward play), but I think it is less likely that not. Because he chewed that bone pretty much from the second he introd.

So VOTE: Aureal
"Leave it to the god of wine to liven things up around here."

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