Newbie 2118 | Terrieresque! - Day 4

[fferyllt]

V3.1

The Kerry Blue Terrier, much like the Standard Schnauzer was bred to be an all around working farm dog. Kerry Blues would herd as well as hunt small vermin. Although the coat is more fluffy than wiry, The Kerry Blue's height (17 to 19 inches) and weight (30-40 lbs) neatly bracket my pup's size. The curly tail is a bonus! That facial hair though...

Umlaut (1): Kowahbunga

Not Voting (4):

Umlaut, JasonWazza, Merlyn, T3

With 5 alive it takes 3 votes to eliminate

Deadline: April 27 , Midnight US Eastern Time

countdown: (expired on 2023-04-26 21:00:00)

Mod Notes

• 

[Merlyn]

Here's my thinking.

T3 logical actions as scum in this scenario.
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Umlaut.
Block Umlaut, Shoot no one. (again this relies on the Mod question, but if he gives a went nowhere if blocked, this seems like an option)
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Mewtaph.

Kowah logical actions as scum in this scenario.
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Umlaut/Mewtaph. (kowah has less options as he was the more likely to be Mewtaphs jail target.)

Umlaut logical actions as scum.
Shoot Mewtaph
Shoot no one.

Merlyn logical actions as scum.
Block Umlaut, Shoot Mewtaph
No action

JasonWazza logical actions as scum.
Block Umlaut, Shoot Mewtaph.
No action

I truly don't mean to be dense here, but I've read this post like 6 times now and I still don't understand why you think it's illogical that T3 would block umlaut and shoot mewtaph.

[JasonWazza]

post 771 on reading now that i'm awake properly is kinda dumb.

@Merlyn: the issue i'm trying to get at is that T3 is facing a huge risk, to not even gain an advantage in the game with the action of Block Umlaut, Kill Mewtaph.

Let's run the scenarios:
T3 Gets Jailkept, Game over.
T3 Doesn't get Jailkept, we basically have to full clear Kowah as the likely Jailkeeper target, and T3 is on the chopping block immediately.

So this scenario doesn't really make sense for T3, because he doesn't actually gain any ground here (he has to get 2 town lims)

No action is the better gamble if your gambling on whether or not your being Jailkept, because at least that puts Kowah on the chopping block as Mewtaph would claim his Jailkeep. (no kill doesn't increase the town lim required counter for scum, 2 failed kills would)

This action makes more sense for us then T3, because we already want Kowah and T3 to stay the lims.

In this case, if we don't reconsider based on the block on Umlaut, the Lim is T3.

[JasonWazza]

I will note regardless of all this, i will be doing a full re-read before making a vote, i just want it on the table that Kowah/T3 don't make a huge amount of sense as scum when we have a Block on Umlaut according to Umlaut.

[JasonWazza]

VOTE: T3

I just can't see it being Merlyn, this might be dumb as hell, but i just don't see the possibility.

As for Umlaut, the way SeeEmpty approached attacking me with the claim, makes me think it comes from knowledge of their having been a roleblocker, and that's why he thought it was actually a catch, because he thought town shouldn't have really considered that chance (1/3 vs 2/3).

[Umlaut]

Jason has to be town because scum would never forget in the course of listing possibilities that my Tracker shot is real and also must be stopped. An option like "block Mewtaph, shoot Mewtaph" would never be acceptable to scum!Kowah or scum!T3 because it means I get a guaranteed Tracker shot. Therefore if they wanted Mewtaph dead over me the only reasonable choice would be to block me and hope not to be jailed.

[JasonWazza]

How in the hell is THAT what makes me town.

I mean i'll take it but god damn, that logic doesn't work super well, my point is more ignoring your tracker attempt is something that T3/Kowah would probably have to risk (especially given we didn't actually confirm what Mewtaph was doing ahead of time).

Compared to risking Mewtaph's Jailkeep isn't really as big a choice they can freely make (unless they play the no action game and roll for a win off that).

Not to mention i seriously doubt your tracking me or Merlyn, and i did account for that as a proper thing we should roleblock if we were scum.

[Umlaut]

Why is the threat of being tracked any more reasonable a risk to accept than the threat of being jailed? In either case they're screwed. If anything getting jailed has at least a chance of talking your way out of it, but if scum got tracked today it's 100% game-over, either I'm scum or they are.

[Umlaut]

last night, I mean

[JasonWazza]

I'm not saying any of these risks are great, but they are in a shit position, if your in that shit a position, i'd worry less about the tracker, and more about the Jailkeeper (who they have literally no argument against because they are confirmed town).

Again i'd say they botched it regardless because i think no action and hope that the other got Jailkept, into an argument with the tracker about the tracker being real was the better way to go, and frankly that's kinda what i'm accepting at this point since i can't see it being you or Merlyn, is that the Scum member played suboptimally and kinda screwed themselves.

[T3]

it seems to me like kowah might be setting up for endgame with the umlaut vote?

[T3]

ISOing SeeEmpty, one thing I do find interesting is that SeeEmpty never actually directly interacts with Merlyn except to ask Merlyn some basic questions or when Merlyn goes and interacts with him. He does interact with everyone else except bekwolt, whom he doesn't mention at all.

[Merlyn]

Again i'd say they botched it regardless because i think no action and hope that the other got Jailkept, into an argument with the tracker about the tracker being real was the better way to go, and frankly that's kinda what i'm accepting at this point since i can't see it being you or Merlyn, is that the Scum member played suboptimally and kinda screwed themselves.

This makes sense to me, because I don't think it was optimal play for SeeEmpty to do what he did yesterday- basically a hypertunnel on you and never left. Even if he thought you were jailkeeper, once it was clear that the vote wasn't going to go that way it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that he never tried to pivot.

[Merlyn]

ISOing SeeEmpty, one thing I do find interesting is that SeeEmpty never actually directly interacts with Merlyn except to ask Merlyn some basic questions or when Merlyn goes and interacts with him. He does interact with everyone else except bekwolt, whom he doesn't mention at all.

it seems to me like kowah might be setting up for endgame with the umlaut vote?

So are you saying you think scum is either Kowah or me?

Also- I'd like to get an answer to my question to you yesterday- why did you suddenly unvote Jason and vote Mewtaph? You said it was to 'compromise' for a lim, but no one was voting Mew- and there was already another wagon on SeeEmpty. Why didn't you compromise by voting there?

[T3]

ISOing SeeEmpty, one thing I do find interesting is that SeeEmpty never actually directly interacts with Merlyn except to ask Merlyn some basic questions or when Merlyn goes and interacts with him. He does interact with everyone else except bekwolt, whom he doesn't mention at all.

it seems to me like kowah might be setting up for endgame with the umlaut vote?

So are you saying you think scum is either Kowah or me?

Also- I'd like to get an answer to my question to you yesterday- why did you suddenly unvote Jason and vote Mewtaph? You said it was to 'compromise' for a lim, but no one was voting Mew- and there was already another wagon on SeeEmpty. Why didn't you compromise by voting there?

i am thinking about who is scum and posting my ideas in the thread. it's not like i have a full solve that i want to push

SeeEmpty claimed jailkeeper, and I was having doubts on Jason.

[JasonWazza]

I'm sorry what?

You had doubts literally from SeeEmpty claiming and me saying i think Mewtaph is JailKeeper?

so from this post to this post

You will tell us now exactly which post made you suddenly have doubts.

Note that if it's me calling Mewtaph the person who i thought was Jailkeeper, you must explain how that makes you doubt your scum read on me, and how exactly that means you are now willing to lim someone who i think is Jailkeeper.

[Umlaut]

I can see a town explanation for T3's pivot but I'm not going to feed it to them.

[Kowahbunga]

Umlaut if you had a gun and a bullet and you had to vig today or you'd die (in game obviously) who are you using the bullet on?

[Umlaut]

That's difficult. If I have to decide in the next ten seconds it's T3 since you were probably jailed last night, but since I don't I'm going to go back through the d1 and d2 interactions and get back to you with a final answer.

[Umlaut]

Yeah I'm treating Kowah as cleared, there is no reason for Mewtaph to jail anyone else if they believed Kowah was scum.

The paranoid part of my brain tells me that Jason's casting doubt on my claim could be setting up for lylo, but I don't really believe SeeEmpty goes after him quite that hard if he's scum, to the point of not even trying to create another wagon on Day 2.

Leaves T3 or Merlyn. We can just lim them both in either order, but since I'm also in the suspect pool I'd like to actually get the right one today.

[Kowahbunga]

I could see Merlyn, but it's literally my personality that gets me here. I fear being fooled more than being wrong. I suspect Merlyn the least of you, t3, and merlyn. So this nagging bit in the back of my head says it could be.

I understand how your POV has to be that, but unfortunately anyone thinking Mew was killed and RB'd can't clear me.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut- to me umlaut is confirmed town now bc there's been no counter claim.

Merlyn, can I ask you why you didn't consider the possibility at this point that I'm scum who made a lucky fakeclaim?

[Umlaut]

I could see Merlyn, but it's literally my personality that gets me here. I fear being fooled more than being wrong. I suspect Merlyn the least of you, t3, and merlyn. So this nagging bit in the back of my head says it could be.

I understand how your POV has to be that, but unfortunately anyone thinking Mew was killed and RB'd can't clear me.

If I'm town, then I really was roleblocked and therefore Mew wasn't, so you're clear.

If I'm scum, then you're still clear because we can't both be scum.

[Kowahbunga]

I could see Merlyn, but it's literally my personality that gets me here. I fear being fooled more than being wrong. I suspect Merlyn the least of you, t3, and merlyn. So this nagging bit in the back of my head says it could be.

I understand how your POV has to be that, but unfortunately anyone thinking Mew was killed and RB'd can't clear me.

If I'm town, then I really was roleblocked and therefore Mew wasn't, so you're clear.

If I'm scum, then you're still clear because we can't both be scum.

holy shit i'm town cleared

[fferyllt]

allez