newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[Lukewarm]

Hey everyone!

Yeah, let's do this. VOTE: endlessdark

VOTE: Demainer for immediately bandwagonning

[Lukewarm]

Are you trying to defend endlessdark?

No. Endless dark hasn't said anything, so I don't any kind of read on him. We are in the random voting section of the game rn, and you joining a vote seemed as good of a reason as any lol

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: whemestar

Only person I have gotten scum vibes from. His "voting for the same thing is something we don't want" while simultaneously joining a wagon felt off to me lol.

Btw, today is my husbands birthday, so I probably won't check this forum again until in the morning. Promise to be more after that tho

[Lukewarm]

Is Wheme simply being voted for making an apparent self-contradiction in his first post? Personally, I'm not finding that to be an issue, on a "scum would be more careful about contradicting themselves" level.

For me, it wasn't that he was contradicting himself. It just felt like he was contributing to an early wagon, while leaving a backdoor way to be able to say on day 2 "come on guys, I

told

you not to keep voting for this guy."

Admittedly its not a ton to go on, but its day 1, and its the strongest read I have so far.

Whoops! Also, off-topic, but:

Btw, today is my husbands birthday, so I probably won't check this forum again until in the morning. Promise to be more after that tho

Hope it's a good one~

Thanks, we had a really good day yesterday!

[Lukewarm]

My scumreads are Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

I explained my reasoning for Whemestar earlier.

Ivyeo does not seem to be contributing much to the conversation, and what they are sending is very wishy-washy. Their messages so far have been a vote, a quick unvote, and then this one:

Whilst I do see the scummyness in Wheme's posts, I'm not sure we want to cut Day 1 discussion to right here.

They just seem like they are being overly cautious, which I feel is more likely with a scum then a town.



Clasko hardly said anything until someone questioned it, then he town-read whemestar (my biggest scum vibes) because

their argument feels cyclical and non-scripted = less chance to be W v. W

And I don't understand the logic. Why would deducing that they are not BOTH scum automatically mean that neither one is?



I am town reading Demainer using Clasko's logic. It does not seem like a scum v scum conversation, and I think that whemestar is the more likely scum of the pair.

[Lukewarm]

I don’t like how you are set on me being the flip on page 5

Yes its page 5 (well 6 now), but we are also on the 6th irl day for our in game Day 1. Maybe I am just not accustomed to the pacing of games on this site, but it feels like we are approaching the point where we just have to pick someone. Like there is only so much info we can really gain in day 1 until we force someone to claim, no?

I am getting pretty antsy for us to l-1 someone just so we can gain new info. Force someone to claim their role, then decide if we want to actually hammer the person based on what they claim. I mean if we wait to much longer, then if we L-1 someone, and decide we shouldn't hammer them, we won't even have long to form a new wagon.

I am not necessarily saying that I think it needs to be you, I would be happy for us to L-1 anyone on my scumread list tbh, so for now, I am gonna be on the biggest wagon between Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

VOTE: Ivyeo because I have sat on the Whemestar wagon for a while, and the Ivyeo wagon is the same size, so might as well mix it up lol

[Lukewarm]

I don't understand why we need role claims so early in the game, it's only going to hurt town? Unless there are special mechanics in this setup I'm not aware of.

No, I do not want multiple people to claim their roles, but I do think that it is important that we vote someone before the day is over, but there are quite a few steps to get us from here to there.

First we L-1 the person we most suspect to be scum, at which point that person (

and only that person

), should claim their role. Then we either hammer that person, or if their claim causes us to rethink the vote, we have to target someone else.

To me (and again, it might just be a different pacing on this site then what I am used to) it seems like we have hit a point where we are just treading water, and at some point we need to pick a direction to go. I don't want us to tread water so long that we don't have time to go through all of the steps, especially if we decide to rethink the vote.

[Lukewarm]

Those three names can't all be scum at once, so Luke, do you think any of them are particularly more likely to be scum than the others?

Do you not have preferences between the three of us? Your post makes it seem as though you just want to eliminate someone rather than anyone in specific, and you gave the three names that town appears to be most willing to eliminate right now.

My first preference was Whemestar, which is why I had a vote against him for the last 4 days, but it feels like that wagon was not gaining any steam.

I feel like a no-lynch day 1 is more detrimental to town then a mislynch would be, due the the deprivation of information. So, if I cannot convince the rest of town to L-1 Whemestar, I would settle for one of the others.

[Lukewarm]

Not getting town vibes from that recent post.

You might be reading a bit of impatience as summiness to be honest.

In the past, I have played Mafia in a Discord server, and I hardly ever saw day 1 last longer then 3 days IRL, and never longer then 4. Here we are on day 6 irl and there is no sign of anyone reaching L-1 any time soon lol

This is my first game on this site, which is why I keep saying it might just be difference in pace between sites.

[Lukewarm]

We still have 3 days, is that not enough time to retread the vote? You act as though we're on last day. You also still haven't answered if you have a preference between the two current wagons.

If we do something today, we will have plenty of time. My concern was more if we didn't start moving towards an L-1 today.

If we take like 8 days to get one person to L-1, I would be concerned only having 2 days to rebuild a whole wagon from scratch. We seem like a slow moving lobby lol.

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:
Actually on second thought, I want to hear more form Luke here first before placing my vote

You know, this somehow makes me think you are less likely to be scum. Which is weird because, I scum read you at first for being wishy-washy, but now I am going to town read you for the same thing lol. When you voted Whemestar, I was surprised to see someone who previously seemed wishy washy, to suddenly commit and agree with me.

But then you unvoted, so your wishy-washy-ness is at least consistent

I think I'm actually removing you from my list of scum reads, and I'm down to Whemestar and Clasko. Those two would actually work as a pair, with Clasko's logic that confused me actually being an attempt to pull suspicion off of Whemestar.

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Whemestar

[Lukewarm]

I don't understand why we need role claims so early in the game, it's only going to hurt town? Unless there are special mechanics in this setup I'm not aware of.

Not getting town vibes from that recent post.

What are you guys talking about? Lukewarm's post is sensible. The person we're eliminating obviously has to claim and it's useful information for the town. There's no getting around this and it's not a scummy thing to push the town into action a bit.

What would be the point of forcing claims right now?

Everyone is going to claim vanilla except for the two power roles. How does that help town at all?

Town is more likely to win if we lynch someone day 1 compared to a no-lynch, even if its a mislynch. So I am speaking with the mindset that

someone

is getting lynched today. If that is happening, we should give that person a chance to claim, no?

I am unsure what you are trying to say. Do you think that nolynch is a reasonable choice? Do think that we should not give someone a chance to claim before we hammer? I am just confused how you imagine the day playing out, without 1 person claiming their role.

[Lukewarm]

This sounds like you were advocating for pushing other players to E-1 and forcing them to claim, rather than simply giving a chance to the then E-1 target to claim.

Now you are just putting words in my mouth, I never said we should just push multiple people to L-1 to get claims.

Even in the quote you bolded and underlined, I outlined a course of action where we get exactly one person to L-1, they claim, and then we discuss whether or not to hammer. So most likely one person claims today, and at max 2 if we decide not to hammer the first person. I feel that I have been pretty clear on that tbh.

[Lukewarm]

Does no one else share my feelings of icky against Dem??

I've been back and forth on him to be honest. Something about his posts have been pinging me as

off

, but I have been back and forth between it being scuminess or him being new.

Right now, I think that I am most leaning towards it being Clasko, and that earlier in the conversation when he was trying to clear Whemestar and Deaminer (because he did not think they were W v W) he was trying to steer the conversation away from his partner. I am not sure which one that is, but I had been leaning more towards Whemestar.

[Lukewarm]

...

I am not really happy with any of Ahri's posts. They have not said anything substantial, and half of their messages are memeing about being scum.

So I feel like there are two possibilities, they are scum trying to hide behind the meme of it all, or they are a town player that is not actually contributing to finding the mafia...

I am actually leaning more towards them being an unhelpful town, but either way, I don't like it...

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Ahri

[Lukewarm]

@Mod I am a little unsure about the dead line after reading your last update. It said you were adding 24 hours, but the countdown is still pointing to the day ending in 3 hours. I don't want to mess up just because I don't understand the timer

If they day ends in 3 hours, I would like to hammer Whemestar now, because I'm off to bed and will not be back on before the dead line
VOTE: timer dependent, whemestar


If we still have 27 hours, then :

WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.

[Lukewarm]

hey newer players i'll probably post a full death message upon 5 hours but if you're planning on hammering me b4 then just type smth like

INTENT TO HAMMER

I unvoted from you, so you are not longer at e-1

UNVOTE:

WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.

I’m confused

Are you still planning on hammering me?

When I logged on today, both whemestar and ahri were at e-1, but no one else has stated an intent to hammer. This leads me to believe that one of the two of you is most likely actually scum (and that person's partner is already targeting the other person).

I am not as confident as you can possibly be on day 1, that either you or Ahri are scum (and that their partner is already on the other person's wagon).

And if I am comparing the two of you, I am more suspicious of you. So I INTEND TO HAMMER you today.

[Lukewarm]

Whemestar, if you really are town, I'm sorry, but out of you and Ahri I am still most suspicious of you, and I don't think there is time for us to change directions anymore to anyone else.



I have plans IRL, so I won't be back on until after the deadline, so I am going to go ahead and Hammer

VOTE: Whemestar

[Lukewarm]

I am now as confident as you can possibly be on day 1, that either you or Ahri are scum

that post didn't age well at all

But that leaves me really confused as to why they would have targeted Ahri.

[Lukewarm]

... Hunting for PR, or an attempt to incriminate the people on Ahri's wagon, perhaps?

How does that incriminate the people on Ahri's wagon?

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: demainer eeeewwgh

Seconded

VOTE: demainer

[Lukewarm]

However, what I don't get is why you TR someone using logic you don't understand - especially since the stance you took here is... not the best look.

I don't think I expressed my opinion as well as I could have in that post.

There were two points in Clasko's post:
-The conversation between Wheme and Demainer did not look like a scum v scum conversation
-therefore both of them were town

I read his comment, and I agreed with the first point, it did not seem like a scum v scum conversation (which turns out was true) But I disagreed with / did not understand why we would then jump to saying both were town.

So I took the part I agreed with, and re-evaluated with the lens of "it is not both demainer AND whemestar." After reading back I thought Wheme seemed more suspicious, and moved forward trying to think who Wheme's partner could be.

But now that Wheme flipped town, that logic no longer protects Demainer. So I voted him lol

Tldr; I did not think it could be BOTH Wheme and Demainer, and since I was more suspicious of Wheme that would indicate that it was not Demainer. But the moment Wheme flipped town, that opened Demainer back up for suspicion.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I read the thread back from the beginning, and here are my reads for everyone in the game, in order from most maf lean to most town lean. I was honestly really back and forth on which to place at the top between these two, so I will say they are tied at the top.

Scum leans:
Clasko / Demainer

Neutral reads, could go either way:
Ivyeo
Saudade

Town lean:
Endlessdark

Strong town lean:
Egix96

Me (obviously lol)

[Lukewarm]

No one voted for her because they thought she was scum. Everyone made it clear that it was a vote for inactivity. And some even townread her for not posting.

Instead of continuing on a tangent and avoiding the discussion today, why not actually share your thoughts on other people?

Analyzing the mafia kill from the night before is definitely a valid topic for discussion, not sure what you're going on about tbh. - I feel like Ahri being killed off by scum (and flipping vanilla town) was better for town then if the scum had just shot randomly. Which does make me curious why they targeted her.

Spoiler:

My thoughts on the worst to best targets for town, it breaks down to:

• Worst
  
  *A town power role
  *Someone that was being widely town read
  *Someone who was being neutrally read, but was being helpful in a building conversations / scum hunting
  *Ahri (neutrally read, but not helping scum hunt)
  *Someone who was being scum read
  
  Best

It's either 0 IQ or 200 IQ.

That I can agree with. So I looked back, and am trying to analyze why they would have targeted Ahri, and these are my theories.

1) They thought she was a power role

Spoiler:

probably because of this line:

not a pr soft don't read into it

2) They were both on the Wheme's wagon.

Spoiler:

I made the claim that I thought that both mafia were on the same wagon, voting against which ever of Ahri/Wheme were town. Meaning the moment Wheme flipped town, I would have focused my investigations on Wheme's wagon. Both flipping town throws a wrench into that, and would open suspicion back up to both wagons.

I have no way to know what logic they actually used, but for me, this is a +1 on my mafia scale for everyone on Wheme's wagon. That is not enough to change anyone's tier for me, so my prior tier (306), and my vote on demainer still stands.

[Lukewarm]

Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.

Which post was the "slip"? I thought I would notice it when I finished re-reading, but I didn't.

He was probably referencing 86 where Clasko town read both wheme and demainer, something that I pointed out did not make sense to me (he has later tried to clear this up). During Day 1, it seemed like Clasko was using faulty logic to clear both Wheme and Demainer, which in turn made me suspicious that he was covering for his partner. From my pov, it can still be that Clasko was trying to cover for Demainer.

But from Demainer's point of view he would have no reason to be suspicious of Clasko for clearing both of them, because he would now know that both were clear after Wheme flipped town.

[Lukewarm]

And Ahri was selected as the scum kill because she was largely ignored in the thread, no one had any "reason" to take her out. We can't get anything from her death/flip.

Uhhhh. That is not really true at all. Limited posting can very much indicate that someone is scum because they are scared they might slip up if they post too much. And I have seen people meme being scum, while actually being scum, as a way to avoid being voted out. I was really on the fence on Ahri's alignment. Just because you (apparently) held no suspicion towards her, does not mean that no one else did.

I definitely gained information when she flipped. So your certainty that we gained nothing when Ahri flipped makes me even more suspicious of you, because scum would have already known her alignment.

And you trying to talk people out of analyzing the mafia's night kill isn't helping that perception either.

[Lukewarm]

And you trying to talk people out of analyzing the mafia's night kill isn't helping that perception either.

Please point to where I've asked someone to stop analyzing mafia's night kill last night.

Here is where you first called talking about Ahri being targeted as a "tangent"

No one voted for her because they thought she was scum. Everyone made it clear that it was a vote for inactivity. And some even townread her for not posting.

Instead of continuing on a tangent and avoiding the discussion today, why not actually share your thoughts on other people?

[Lukewarm]

I have done a full ISO for you Demainer, and I cannot find a single post that does not rub me the wrong way tbh.

Post 10 - combative over a RVS vote on you
Post 52, post 55 A lot of posts pushing on Wheme, including accusing him of being defensive at e-1 (when you were defensive / combative after a single vote landed on you). And a weird line about a vote not actually happening day 1
Post 139, post 179, post 181, post 182 These all felt like you were purposefully misunderstanding me. Like even after I clarified, and multiple other players commented that they understood what I was saying.


And now that I am reading back through after our most recent interactions today, where you repeatedly have said "no one was suspicious of Ahri," a couple of posts stood out to me:
209where I said I was worried Ahri could be scum
and 183 where YOU said Ahri "gave you bad vibes."

And today you keep trying to insist that Ahri being targeted by the mafia was bad for the town, despite many people saying that it seemed like a poor decision from the mafia. Almost like you are trying to defend your own decision.

[Lukewarm]

I also feel like I want to address 303 Like, i think this one has earned its own post.

If you're scumreading me for apologizing to Wheme, then so be it, it's your choice. I was convinced our scum team was Wheme + Clasko, but with Wheme flipping town I've gone back to the drawing board and re-iso'd everyone.

...

Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.

I did not catch this at first, because Wheme+Clasko was my read day 1. But right now, when I am ISOing you I spotted it. You never once actually said that you suspected that combination on Day 1. You pushed Wheme pretty hard, but you never said you thought he was partnered with Clasko.

In 99 Endlessdark said he suspected Wheme+Clasko. In 152 I said I was supicious of Wheme+Clasko.

But you, you never said that that was your suspicion. Not even to agree with me or endless dark.

So now I am supposed to believe that you were "convinced" it was him, but you never once said it, even to agree with multiple other people saying it. And the first time you ever thought to share that suspicion was in a post that you tried to CLEAR Clasko.

I'm not buying it. The more I read over all of the messages, and reread them, the more I am convincing myself that it is Demainer + Clasko. So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point.

VOTE: Demainer

[Lukewarm]

Is it particularly common for people to replace out of games on this site? This is my first game on here, so I have no point of reference.

[Lukewarm]

Caught up.

People that care but might be good scum:
Lukewarm.
Egix.

People that don't seem to care in order of enthusiasm.

Endless dark
Demainer
Ivymeo.
Clasko

hmmm. I'm not sure what I am supposed to take from this this tbh. Is being high supposed to indicate more likely to be town? or of being scum? or neither?

I am also unsure how you came up with your ranking, specifically why you have Demainer so low, when according to the activity overview, Demainer has the most posts of any living player (at 44).

Would you care to elaborate?

[Lukewarm]

That... didn't exactly clear anything up for me

I think I am just going to trust that you have a process to get from that list to the list of people you think are most/least likely to be town lol

Any thoughts on that front?

[Lukewarm]

Imma just reread the whole game and give some thoughts, I feel a bit lost right now

Ivyeo, I would love to hear more from you as well

[Lukewarm]

Yay! People are talking!
(Well except Clasko)

With Saudade and endless both disappearing and not posting for a while, it's a bit difficult to figure out the last scum. I can see Egix and Saudade being w/w with Ivyeo.

.... I honestly don't understand how you can mention every single person except me and Clasko. How are you clearing Clasko so strongly? It just doesn't make sense. You read Ivy as scum because they were not posting much, but then Clasko has posted the least of everyone, and he is one of you strongest town reads?

And I outlined a lot of issues I have had in your posts, and you are completely ignoring everything I said? lol

VOTE: Demainer

I'll also try to rereread for a read (god awful sentece) on the others tomorrow, for now it's 5am and I haven't slept aaaaaaaaa

Does Saudade's vote transfer to Bell until they unvote? If so, Demainer is at e-1 now.

[Lukewarm]

Luke

- I'm getting very bad vibes from this man. I don't see someone who is weighing all of the options of who Mafia is at all, and is instead just going all-out on Demainer. Admittedly he has reason to, some of which I agree with and some I do not, and whilst I liked the fact he made a read list, this was counter-balanced by not giving reasonings for any of the placements, outside of the top two, which he has explained elsewhere. His gameplay is good (driving forward, reviving a sluggish game), but I'm going to err on the side of him being a good mafia player who happened to roll Mafia here:

VOTE: Lukewarm

I would not say that I have been tunneling on Demainer, at least not until recently lol. Day 1, I was juggling a lot of suspicions. But since Day2 has started, the conversation has been largely dead and I have read, and re-read, and re-read the Day 1 chat. And he is my strongest read by far, with multiple posts that felt anti-town. I'd even like to point you to my statement here:

So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point]

The chat was dead, and I had read all of the messages many times over, and I felt like there was nothing else for me to gain from re-reading anymore. So it was gonna take some new info for me to do anything else lol.

But luckily, we just got some new info to work with!

I am a Town Cop - I investigated Egix96 last night, and he is confirmed Town. Dunno if this is the correct play, but here we are.
Two possible Mafia in these five, provided I don't get CC'd:

This changes everything on how I would approach the game moving forward!

So the first thing we need to do is see if anyone is gonna counter claim. And remember, there is a limited combination of abilities in this set up. The only way Clasko can be a cop is if we are in a Cop+Doctor or a Solo Cop set up.

So if you have any power other then Doctor (Cop, Jailkeeper, Tracker, Friendly Neighbor, or a Mason) then you can counter claim against him. If you are a Doctor, please do not reveal yourself.

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Endlessdark slot

I really think that we should wait to see if there is a counter claim, before we vote based on Clasko's information.

Speaking of which UNVOTE:

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I have been thinking about the two possibilities,

1)

Clasko is fake claiming

If someone counter claims Clasko, then I am leaning towards if being Clasko + Demainer, but I will need to see who counter claims to really form a hard opinion.

2)

Clasko is the cop

That clears Clasko and Egix.
Leaving: - Bell - Demainer - Endlessdark slot - Ivyeo - Me

If no one counter claims Clasko, I am less pressed on it being Demainer, because a good portion of my suspicion of him came from Demainer and Clasko both appearing to clear / pull suspicion off of one another. Those worries would be assuaged.

To me, that would indicate that there is 0 to 1 scum between Demainer and Ivy. I do not see Demainer and Ivy being a pair, they have both voted the other, and in Demainer's case at least, it was done before there would be a need for scum to bus one another.

That would mean that there must be 1 to 2 scum between Bell and Endless dark (from my PoV, I don't need to consider me as an option lol) Before this analysis, I had Saudede listed higher on my scum/town scale, but now I am looking back under the assumption that at least one of Saudede or Endlessdark were scum. I noticed that Saudede made it clear that he did not think it was Ahri or Wheme on Day 1, and tried to push the vote towards Demainer. This kinda makes me a bit less suspicious of him seeing as how both Ahri and Wheme did in fact flip town. That narrows the gap, so I now have him and endless at about the same place for me.

So now I am looking back at Bell/Saudede's posts and Endless's posts based on the assumption that one of them is bad, and with that in mind the possible pairs from my PoV mind are:

• Clasko + Demainer (if Clasko is CC)
  
  
  Endlessdark
  + almost anyone Like I could see him paired with Ivy/Demainer/or
  Saudede
  
  
  
  Saudede
  Bell + Ivy

My head is starting to hurt trying to decide between endlessdark and saudede, so I think I'm gonna wait a bit more to give other people a chance to react to Clasko's Cop claim. Ivy, Bell, and

Endlessdark

have not yet chimed in

[Lukewarm]

At this point, enough people have commented without anyone counter claiming Clasko, that I am going to trust his claim.

That means Clasko and Egix are 100% clear, and I know I am clear, so our two scum are found somewhere in the mix of :

• Demainer, Ivy, and out new friends Bell and fferyllt.

I stand by my statement that I can't picture Demainer and Ivy as partners. I am also leaning against against Bell and Fferylly being partnered as well.

I think the mafia teams that make the most sense to me are
-Bell + Ivy
-fferylly + Ivy
-fferylly + demainer

I am going to do a break down of how I am imaging the different possibilities playing out

Spoiler:

Ivy and fferylly are on two of the possibilities, which would give us a more clear path to victory if we flip them first.

If we flip Ivy or fferylly: (plugging in Ivy, but could be either)

• Ivy flips scum today / mafia kills tonight
  day 3 there are 5 alive, 1 scum between bell and fferylly. we kill one, and get it wrong / Mafia kills night 3
  Day 4 starts, there are 3 alive, and we know the mafia is which ever of bell and fferylly are still alive
  Town Win!
  
  
  Ivy flips town today / mafia kills tonight
  Day 3 starts, there are 5 alive, but we know the mafia pair is fferylly + demainer
  Town Win!

Alternatively, demainer or bell are each in one pair only, which leaves with a possible lose if we flip them first (using demainer as the example)

• Demainer flips scum / mafia kill
  we enter day 3 with 5 alive/1 scum, which would be fferylly
  Town Win!
  
  
  Demainer flips town / mafia kills
  we enter day 3 with 5 alive/2 scum, we are on lynch or lose and the scum is someone out of Bell, Ivy, or fferylly. we lynch ivy, mafia kills
  enter day 4, 3 alive and there is a scum between Bell and fferylly, and we don't know which it is
  50/50 win or lose

Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)

This logic all hinges on people agreeing that those are the three possible pairs of course, but for now I think I am going to say

VOTE: Ivy

[Lukewarm]

Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)

I don't totally hate the possibility of being mis-elimed as long as I get plenty of time (e.g., a good sized chunk of this 48 hour extension) to analyze the available (sparse-ish) data and interact with the player list. But, I'll probably get pretty snarky if it does happen.

While either choice would work logically, I am much more leaning towards voting out Ivy today. I mean you have generated more discussions in the like 3 hours you have been in the game, then Ivy has generated in the whole of Day 2. Regardless of your alignment, keeping you in the game seems more likely to keep the thread from dying lol

I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.

With Egix cleared by Clasko, that leaves saudade. while i see endless being on the team as well as it seems like he has some experience with this as well, I'm leaning most towards saudade/ivyeo.

Even though I am no longer advocating we vote you out, I still gotta say, there is something about your posts that just feel...

off

... to me lol

[Lukewarm]

Hmmm. Much to think about. My issue is that the people I am most suspicious of, I can not imagine being a team. When I read through the ISOs, Ivy and Demainer both feel very scummy to me, but Demainer came out the gate on Day 2 pushing Ivy. So that tells me that I am definitely wrong on (at least) one of my scum reads. Now I feel like I am second guessing myself.

fferyllt has been posting a lot, which I really appreciate because I did not like how slow this thread has been moving, but I know that does not make her town.

Before she replaced in, Egix, a confirmed town, made post 346 where he said her slot must be scum from his PoV (along side either demainer or ivy). So if she replaced in as scum, and that was the current game state, she would need to talk a lot and lead the town a bit in order to shift that suspicion away from her slot. Her post 369 pinged me a little bit, that she may be trying to lead the conversation to clear suspicion off of herself. Demainer/Ivy really does not make sense as a pair to me, but she still put that out there. Feels like a "let me suggest pairs that do not include me" instead of "lets find the most suspicious pair." If she had placed in as town, I feel like it is more make more sense to focus in on Bell being the scum member paired with Demainer/Ivy.

So I am leaning towards fferyllt being scum.

I looked back at both Ivy and Demainer's iso, to compare their comments before and after Bell and fferlly replaced in, so see if there was a change in their posts based on them gaining a new scum partner. Ivy's post seemed consistent. Still minimal, and non-committal. Which is bad, but it did not feel like she had a new partner trying to give her advice. Demainer's posts on the other hand... they feel the same after bell replaced in, but starting after fferyllt joined do feel a bit different tome. And post 426 feels more like it is designed to keep the two of them being paired together rather then trying to help scum/town read fferllt.

So I am leaning towards the scum team being fferyllt + Demainer

UNVOTE: Ivy

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: fferyllt

They have posted so much information/analysis, and then their final conclusion was

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Which I honestly cannot understand how a town could come to either one of those final conclusions. Either way, you have to assume that one of the scum players came into day 2 ready to bus their partner for no reason. Either Demainer bussing Ivy or me bussing Demainer. Your final pairs make 0 sense to me as town, so I am therefore left to assume that you are scum who was put into a hard position (you replaced into a slot that was already under fire from a confirmed town).

you're a small but significant part of my feeling that miseliming me today is better for town than me being alive,

This also feels to me like an attempt to reverse phycology the group into not killing you, but I actually agree with this sentence.

Even if we are wrong (although I don't think we are), I think that sets us up to win (referring back to my post 364

[Lukewarm]

My issue is not that you are suspicious of me (although I don't fully understand your logic to do so) but the fact that you paired me with Demainer.

You-Luke - strongest likelihood. Your Ivy vote makes sense and your me-discredits make sense

Using the same logic you used with egix and with Demainer, I know this isn't true because my role pm said otherwise, so you are currently scumreading town.

So either you are scum and making accusations that are not logical because you are trying to manipulate the thread. Or you have some kind of logic that (is wrong) and has not been explained well to the thread.

So if you want me to consider that you might be a mistaken town and not scum, you gotta make your conclusion make some sort of logical sense.

Looking at my iso, starting with post 294 and especially (306 / 325 / 326).

If you think me + Demainer are the most likely pair, why would I have said those things?
Do you think I was bussing him? Why would I need to bus him so early and aggressively?
Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

[Lukewarm]

Just so everyone know where I stand, I actually still think that it is ff and Demainer. At this point I believe they are bussing each other hoping that who ever lives will then not have suspicion on them.

[Lukewarm]

Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

Do I think you could back away from this post?

VOTE: demainer eeeewwgh

Seconded

VOTE: demainer

Your first post of day 2? Yes, I do, though I think inexperienced scum would be reluctant to bus like that. It's a strange thing about scum vs town votes. Scum tend to worry about what it will look like if they change their minds. Town just takes in the data, and if the data points them in a different direction, they change direction. I used to describe the difference as being hedgy vs being waffly.

Your vote isn't hedgy, and that's an argument against my solve.

I asked if you thought I could walk back posts 325 and 326, you quoted back 294.

I meant this

I'm not buying it. The more I read over all of the messages, and reread them, the more I am convincing myself that it is Demainer + Clasko. So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point.

VOTE: Demainer

This is where the game state was when I made that post
Egix: Voted Ivy
Demainer: Voted Ivy
Endlessdark: No vote
Clasko: No vote
Ivy: No Vote
Saudede: Voted Demainer, but then had requested to be replaced. So where his replacement would go was uncertain.

Other then me, there was only one person voting against Demainer, and that person was getting ready to leave the game. If I were partnered with Demainer, why would have I have put so much effort in to building a case against him (Posts 325 and 326 if he were my partner? I mean I did a full iso of him, and pointed out

many, many

posts against him. Why would I have bussed him there?

I cannot come up with a reason, therefore I cannot understand your conclusion that me+demainer is the most likely scum pair in your PoV. It makes no sense to me from a town PoV.

But from a scum PoV, you could be trying to get Demainer voted out. He flips scum. You get to say "see I was right" and try to steer the conversation again tomorrow. Or alternatively, you fail to push out Demainer, and YOU get voted out. That leaves Demainer able to claim "see the scum tried really hard to push me out yesterday"

I cannot find a logical way for a town to make the conclusion that you made. I can come up with a logical explanation why a scum would push this particular pair. Therefore, I am left to conclude that you are scum.

[Lukewarm]

I can see luke openwolfing if it's a goon pair game. Brave play, but possible.

What does it mean to be "openwolfing"?

At this point, I am really most interested in getting Egix and Clasko's opinions. So hopefully they check in soon lol

[Lukewarm]

I don't care nearly as much about your read of me as I do about reading you correctly.

@fferyllt You say this, but you still are ignoring the question I have asked you about how you came to your conclusion. In your mind, how does it make sense for me and demainer to be scum, AND for me to have made post 325 + 326 in the game state that they were made. What is the thought process that you have used to allow those two things to co-exist in your read?

It's certainly an uphill battle to push you and if I were scum, my flip would spew you insanely town.

@everyone I was actually thinking about this, why would fferyllt (as scum) make the pair Me+Demainer?. If I am right, and the team is ff + Demainer, and they were trying to come up with a plan of who to push while bussing demainer, then their options were : [Demainer+Ivy] [Demainer+Bell] [Demainer + me]

Who every is place into the mafia accusation would come across as town once ff flipped scum. I have been widely town read by nearly every player (except Clasko for some reason), but Ivy and Bell have both been discussed as possible scum. So ff could have chosen me so that both Bell and Ivy would be under suspicion moving into Day 3.

Honestly fferyllt, you seem like a good/experienced player. So I analyzed how your play could help lead to a town win (and could not find it) then analyzed how your play could lead to a scum win, and this is the scenario I found:

Spoiler:

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Me + Demainer, leaving Bell and Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out one of them / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

We vote out the other

Mafia Win

Compared to if you, as scum made the bussing paid Demainer + Bell

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Bell + Demainer, leaving Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out Ivy / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

Who ever is left out of Clasko/Egix/Me have to reexamine Bell and Demainer

50/50 Town/Mafia win

So if you are scum paired with demainer, accusing Me+Demainer has a logical reason behind it.

[Lukewarm]

Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.

Oh my god. Reading the "whilst" thread made me feel physically sick to my stomach. I am going to pretend I did not read it, because the only way my brain wants to interpret it would mean that Clasko is scum, and our real town power role just did not counter claim him. I don't see a way that I can productively work towards a win if thats the case, so I am just going to ignore it, but I am actually nauseous right now. The worst possible outcome of this game would be for us to lose because our actual PR just didn't counter claim a scum


I am actually amazed that you were able to catch the weirdness of its usage while just reading through. That is mighty impressive.

Everyone else, for your own sanity, I would recommend you not actually search the thread for "whilst" lol

[Lukewarm]

Oh, Luke's against it now. Huh.

What vote are you suggesting I am against?

I currently think that the mafia pair is ff + demainer. Of the two, I think that ff is the one more capable of leading town's votes astray on subsequent days, therefore my preferred vote is ff.

If that wagon does not seem like it will pass, I think that a miselim on Ivy would still lead to a town win (see post 364), but I think a miselim on you could lead to a 50/50 situation in the future. If I cannot convince people to join me against the ff / demainer pair, I am willing to hammer Ivy right before the deadline if necessary.

[Lukewarm]

Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.

Oh my god. Reading the "whilst" thread made me feel physically sick to my stomach. I am going to pretend I did not read it, because the only way my brain wants to interpret it would mean that Clasko is scum, and our real town power role just did not counter claim him. I don't see a way that I can productively work towards a win if thats the case, so I am just going to ignore it, but I am actually nauseous right now. The worst possible outcome of this game would be for us to lose because our actual PR just didn't counter claim a scum


I am actually amazed that you were able to catch the weirdness of its usage while just reading through. That is mighty impressive.

Everyone else, for your own sanity, I would recommend you not actually search the thread for "whilst" lol

Sounds like you didn't see the thing that made me curious. And in fact the Clasko uses didn't stand out to me because I think his posting times fit a time zone where "whilst" is much more common than mine.

Ivy's apparent timezone kinda fits too.

Demainer's apparent timezone possibilities doesn't appear to, but they only use the word once, I think. Maybe the sprinklings of whilst in this game are contagious? I sometimes temporarily pick up words I don't usually use due to people using them around me.

I am not using any whilst logic moving forward, but this is what my brain jumped to when I first read the thread:

Whilst is not a word that is commonly used. But here are two people saying it repeatedly (clasko + ivy), and not only were they both using it, they were using it in very similar situations. Because it seems like a word people don't generally use, my brain said "this is a word that clasko really uses, and Ivyeo is picking it up from the mafia chat" or possibly vice versa.

But your timezone explanation makes much more sense lol

[Lukewarm]

And I think finding out that I'm town before elo is pro-town-wincon, so I'm not against being miselimed.

If you really are town, why are you avoiding answering my questions when I have been asked you to explain your read?

If I were scum with demainer, why would I have made posts 325 and 326 in the game state that those posts were made? If you cannot explain it, doesn't that break the me+demainer pair? You keep saying that you are going to flip town, and then we should look at your reads. If that is what is going to happen, shouldn't you work through the apparent contradiction here?


Of course me asking you this this many times will mean nothing when you flip scum

[Lukewarm]

I really wanted to hear from Clasko and Egix before I went to bed, so I had time to respond to them / mull over their comments before the final hour of Day 2

Why did our confirmed town PR and the person they cleared have to be two of the least active players on the thread

[Lukewarm]

then maybe there's two in Luke/Demain/FF.

I can agree with this read

I feel like you might have scum read me because I listed my most suspicious pair as Demainer+you. Which at the time, I was most supicious of demainer and you made the most sense as their partner. We have a lot more info to go off of now tho, so my opinion has changed to demainer+ff.

If you are suspicious of me, which of demainer or ff do you think I could be paired with?

[Lukewarm]

I feel like you might have scum read me because I listed my most suspicious pair as Demainer+you. Which at the time, I was most supicious of demainer and you made the most sense as their partner. We have a lot more info to go off of now tho, so my opinion has changed to demainer+ff.

If you are suspicious of me, which of demainer or ff do you think I could be paired with?

Not at all. It was very much in line with your D1 approach where you were suspicious of me over trying to protect WhemeStar, so I saw sense in you thinking similarly with me and Demainer. Even though I knew it held no water (because I knew I was town in both instances), I understood your rationale.

On the face of it, FF is the more likely pair. I can't see you bussing Demainer here early D2.

Bednowkthx.

If you think there is 2 between ff/demainer/me, and you don't think I would be paired with demainer, does that make ff your prefered vote?

That would leave it either being ff+me or ff+demainer, right?

[Lukewarm]

Okay, this is my final take before we hit the dead line. Egix and Clasko are clear, and I after my most recent read through, I have joined the camp that Ivy is almost certainly town (there is actually one specific post that flipped my opinion, but I think I am going to hold on to that until tomorrow. She is not currently in the hot seat anyways). I am no longer willing to vote against Ivy. A mid elm on them was logically acceptable in an earlier post, when I was not in consideration for being scum, but Clasko and ff (and to a lesser extent, demainer) have all put my name out there.

That means that the 2 scum must be found in Me, fferyllt, demainer, and bell.

The possible pairings are: {Me+fferyllt} {Me+Demainer} {Me+Bell} {fferyllt+demainer} {fferyllt+bell} {demainer+bell}

I think that a couple of those should be able to be eliminated due to bussing too early day 1/2

{Me+Demainer} {demainer+bell}

Spoiler:

Me+Demainer : posts 325 / 326 / 294

Bell + Demainer : Posts 159 / 160 through 163 / 10 257. Like, if this is a pair Saudede put a lot of work into adding suspicion to Demainer on Day 1, and lead into Day 2 on a vote 293

So now we are down to {Me+fferyllt} {Me+Bell} {fferyllt+demainer} {fferyllt+bell}

Let's analyze a vote for fferyllt.

If she flips scum, we found a scum.
If she does flip town, the team logically must be me+bell, we found the scum team

So I still think that a vote for ff should be the best choice from anyone's PoV (except ff's lol).

Let's analyze a vote for demainer

If he flips scum, we found scum.
If he does somehow flip town though, he would clear the least number of pairings, leaving me+ff, me+bell, and bell+ff all as possibilities.

From clasko/egix's PoV, there is a possibility that this would leave them with to choose between three players on Day 3 without no mis elim left. From my PoV, this will flip scum, but from clasko/egix, this could be considered a dangerous choice

And if we were to vote Bell

If he flips scum, we found a scum.
If he flips town, that leaves the possibilities as me+fferyllt, demainer+fferyllt, with no mis elims left.

Because Clasko has listed me as one of his suspicions, from my PoV, this is the most likely choice to lead to a town loss

Finally, let's analyze a vote for me

If I flip scum, we found scum.
When I flip town, then the team must logically be ff+[demainer or bell]. We don't have a mis elim left, but I am gonna leave this here to be quoted back afterwards IT IS DEMAINER NOT BELL

I think a mis elim on me is the second safest choice to lead to a town win

From my PoV, the only dangerous choice to end today on is Bell. I think that the safest from all PoVs should be FF. I think that Demainer is a safe vote, because I am sure that he will flip scum, but I would understand Egix or Clasko being wary of this. I think I am an acceptable mis elim.

All that being said, I will not vote for bell, ivy, clasko, or egix.

My preference for the rest of us are as follows ff>demainer>me, and will hammer any one of these wagons at the last minute if needed.

[Lukewarm]

fferylt replaces endlessdark. the day will end in (expired on 2021-04-17 12:00:00)

[Lukewarm]

you can't hammer me!

I meant I will stay on your wagon, but am willing to hammer either demainer or myself if needed lol

[Lukewarm]

how does my town flip clear demainer?

it better not clear them.

Because I am certain that demainer cannot be paired with me, and I am pretty confident that demainer is not paired with bell.

If you flip town, I think the only logical pair left would be me+bell

[Lukewarm]

I think that a couple of those should be able to be eliminated due to bussing too early day 1/2

{Me+Demainer} {demainer+bell}

Spoiler:

Me+Demainer : posts 325 / 326 / 294

Bell + Demainer : Posts 159 / 160 through 163 / 10 257. Like, if this is a pair Saudede put a lot of work into adding suspicion to Demainer on Day 1, and lead into Day 2 on a vote 293

[Lukewarm]

Well from clasko / egix / ivy's PoV, it should be narrowed down to me+bell

From my PoV, if you flip town my brain will break.

[Lukewarm]

Anyway I will be gone now. Please hammer.

I'm staying on ivy till the end, it's one of us tdome time.

So even though an Ivy wagon will never pass (me, ff, bell, and clasko have all said we do not suspect ivy) you are gonna leave your vote on them ......

[Lukewarm]

That is the opposite of helpful

[Lukewarm]

My first choice would be for you to move your vote to ff, but I would rather you vote for me, then for you to vote for Ivy.

[Lukewarm]

He logged off....

He really did log on right before the dead line, make the most anti-town possible post, and then leave.

VOTE: Demainer

I am still willing to hammer ff if other people gravitate towards that wagon, but I am honestly done with Demainer in this game lol

[Lukewarm]

oh. wait. UNVOTE:

[Lukewarm]

If Clasko and Egix are on, I can wait a min before I do that lol

[Lukewarm]

I think that FF is the smarter vote, but god, demainer is the slimiest person in this this thread

[Lukewarm]

oh. wait. UNVOTE:

Rly

I have been waiting for a while to get the opinions of the two confirmed town, so yeah, I wanted to give them both a chance to talk before the wagon passed

[Lukewarm]

If egix and clasko can come to a consensus, I will follow them where ever they lead. But right now, the two of you are split, so I would like for you to discuss that tbh

[Lukewarm]

If egix and clasko can come to a consensus, I will follow them where ever they lead. But right now, the two of you are split, so I would like for you to discuss that tbh

I don't mind deferring to Egix here if he prefers the Demainer elim over me preferring the fferyllt elim.

VOTE: Demainer

Okay. VOTE: demainer

[Lukewarm]

the lack of twilight chat is killing me.

Ikr. I just wanna know what Demain was already...

I keep checking back hoping the flip has been posted so I can know If I should feel vindicated for my early read on demainer or have my whole out look for this game destroyed, and have to start my whole thought process over again from scratch.

The suspense!

[Lukewarm]

Well, that was unexpected...

We have entered into the nightmare scenario I described

Let's analyze a vote for demainer

If he flips scum, we found scum.
If he does somehow flip town though, he would clear the least number of pairings, leaving me+ff, me+bell, and bell+ff all as possibilities.

From clasko/egix's PoV, there is a possibility that this would leave them with to choose between three players on Day 3 without no mis elim left. From my PoV, this will flip scum, but from clasko/egix, this could be considered a dangerous choice

From my PoV it now must be bell+ff.

But at this point, I think the whole game hinges on Egix's vote today (no pressure)

[Lukewarm]

I half expected Ivy to be the night kill today.

I had the feeling that they would Roleblock Clasko, and kill Ivy (because everyone had her on her clear list) and Clasko was a bit suspicious of me through out Day 2, so he seemed like a decent choice to keep a live in hopes to get a town vote onto me.

[Lukewarm]

If you are town, please hold off voting until everyone you think is town feels ready to end the day.

I've got some posts I worked on during the night phase incoming...

I know waiting for Egix to decide where to place the town vote is the

right

play to make, but I really want to just vote out right off the bat. That would force Egix to choose between you and me. The game would not end immediately, so the only explanation would be that either you are scum (and my vote is right) or I am scum (and the scum team needs one more vote on you before they can win.)

As is, I feel quite powerless, and like I just have to wait for Egix. But if I did that, I could take this game into my own hands. Go out on my own terms lol

Slight topic change though, I am looking for ward to seeing how you play turn this all around. I am very impressed with how you have played this game. Taking over a scum slot that confirmed town had already locked in as scum, and somehow managing to keep town from voting you. Very, very impressive.

[Lukewarm]

You really wrote a book during the night. This will take some time to parse / respond to

[Lukewarm]

I want to vote Bell today. It's because Bell is by far my strongest scum read and the most easy to explain.

I would not be completely against that. From my PoV, that will land a scum kill (

unless Ivy is actually a god scum player who managed to get every single player to town read her, and deserves to win

)

[Lukewarm]

Something that I noticed in my first read through (and I do plan on posting more responses to your posts, this is just something that jumped out at me). These posts feel like they are written with the goal of swaying specifically Egix, but not Clasko.

The first post, about Saudede, seems partly tailored towards swaying Egix specifically.

This is going to be a small side trip. The reason I made that post to egix, pushing back at his scumread of my slot and challenging him to actually read my play, was because egix is the only player here besides Bell who has played with me, and in that Newbie game I replaced into his scum-partner's slot. The difference in my approach here vs there is almost night and day and I thought egix would be able to see it if he reevaluated my slot. It was a very different gamestate in that game, too, but if anything my entry point into that game was much weaker. A strong, loud player had been calling my slot scum since the start of day 2 and didn't let up in the slightest when I replaced in.

egix should remember that in that newbie game, I really didn't want to state reads, and basically just proclaimed a few players town and refused to say which of the remainder I thought were scum. I "efforted" some replace-in catchup posts and "efforted" some meta towncases (they actually involved a lot of effort -- mostly to carefully pick and choose what to highlight and what to gloss over

And I actively saved the player who was pushing me the hardest from miselim who was pushing me the hardest. He had a semi-guilty jailkeeper result on my slot (which DAYUM I wish I'd realized), though. he would have outed his night action if he'd been around when the miselim happened which would have been disastrous, too. My slot basically wasn't salvagable, though I tried and I did my best to help set egix up for the late game win. I don't think he really needed my help, though!

Anyway, egix was my partner, and he was one of the players I did a full meta dive on and he knows that I'm fairly methodical as scum. I was anything but methodical here on day 2.

Writing this, I'm not even sure egix is still townreading me, and if he's not, or if he's dead, then this game is probably a scum win anyway but I WILL go down fighting.

Like this whole section felt like "Egix, remember that other game we played in together, look how different I am in this game"

But then, neither post has seem to try and appeal to Clasko in the same way. Hell, Clasko's name does not appear a single time in Post 665, and the two times it is in post 667 are this:

But there were two places where something unexpected happened. First, one of his top scum reads, choice for a push on day 2, Clasko outed as Cop with an innocent result.

And then here's his reaction to Clasko's scumread and claim

Where Clasko is being used only as a framing point, not like he is being addressed. I mean Clasko had me listed as suspicious for most of day 2 (until he eventually changed his vote to fferyllt), but she does not even point that out or agree with his points.

If she thought there was a chance that she would need to sway Clasko today, I feel like she would have done something of the sort in her post.

[Lukewarm]

It also stood out to me that she felt the need to make a point to state that her+bell could not be a team, but not that she needed to defend against the accusation that her and I are a team.

I think Bell/my interactions should be obviously anti-partner regardless of how anyone reads me, but there is also some anti-partner interactions from Saudade toward Endless that I'll call out:

130 Saudade "uuuuhs" a post from Endless that interprets Ivy's early play as inexperienced town. Saudade was voting Ivy at that point.

131 he "good vote"'s Whemestar's Endless vote.

Almost like she subconciously felt the need to defend against that, because she knew that one was true.

And its not like she should have expected a her+bell accusation but not a her+me accusation. I mean I came in expecting:

I accusse Bell+ff
ff accuses me + bell
Bell accuses me + ff

[Lukewarm]

I think Bell/my interactions should be obviously anti-partner regardless of how anyone reads me, but there is also some anti-partner interactions from Saudade toward Endless that I'll call out:

130 Saudade "uuuuhs" a post from Endless that interprets Ivy's early play as inexperienced town. Saudade was voting Ivy at that point.

131 he "good vote"'s Whemestar's Endless vote.

I would also like to say that I do not see any of Saudade + endlessdark's interactions being anti-partner at all.If anything, looking at a shared iso between the two it seems like they were trying to keep their distance from one another.

Saudade never voted or endlessdark, or said that anything he did was suspicion. He actually compained that endlessdark was getting an early wagon formed on him. The only time Saudade gave a read on Endless dark was to say he had no read on him post 162. [I actually read post 131 as sarcastic given his immediate turn around in post 132, and then later stating he had no read on endless in post 162].

Endless also never voted against Saudade, nor said anthing he had said was suspicious.

Looking at their iso, it looks to me like their only interaction was to debade Ivy's alignment. It feels more like they are staying a bit distant from one another, so I am not sure how you gleamed that they had "anti-partner interactions"

Spoiler:

Thier voting patterns were:

• Saudade votes Wheme
  Endless votes Ahri
  Saudade votes Ivy
  Saudade votes Demainer
  Endless votes Wheme
  Saudade votes Ahri
  Saudade votes Demainer

They collectively voted for only players who have already flipped town (plus one vote for Ivy)

[Lukewarm]

What jumps out here is that Luke isn't arguing that he isn't scum. He's arguing that he can't be scum with Demainer. And lo and behold...he's not scum with Demainer.

This was pointed out to me as one of my scum markers a few years ago. I prefer not to lie, so I phrase arguments and cases and counterarguments as scum so I minimize false statements. And I think that's what Luke is doing here. He attacks me on the wrong part -- that he could be scum with Demainer, not the part that I kept reiterating over and over -- that the carefulness of his stance building results in a body work that looks a little too clean to be for real. There are no quick turnarounds except when forced by a sudden shift in the gamestate.

To be honest with you, I was more surprised that I was being paired with Demainer then I was that I was being scum read. I knew there was a good chance that you were scum, and would need to put suspicion on other people, so I was not surprised when that happened. The thing that surprised me was being pair with Demainer.

And to be frank with you, I have no idea how to respond to the accusation that my posts "look too clean to be real." That is the opposite of having something to base your scum read on, which left me with no way (or at least no way that I can think of) to discuss your read. I mean the only argument that I could possibly make is that I am a generally analytical/logical based person in real life, but you would just have to take my word for it, so it seemed futile to address.

So instead I focused on your claim that it was me+demainer. At that point in time, I was pretty sure you were being voted out, I mean I had voted for you, and Egix had said you must be scum (he had not walked that back yet I don't think). So, I was approaching it with the mind set, either:
"she flips scum, and her reads don't matter as much" or
"she flips town, and her dying words were going to be 'its luke+demainer'"

So I was hedeging my bets, trying to get you to rethink your read of me + demainer, so that on your off chance that you were town, then you could leave us with a more helpful read. But then you kept dodging the question, and even went so far as to say

I can't hold onto a Demeaner/you team in the face of the posts

without giving any new reads. That cemented it for me, that you were scum, and once you flipped scum, the fact that you were scum reading me+demainer would not matter so much.

[Lukewarm]

I have reconsidered the idea of voting out bell today. If we vote out bell today, then Egix dies in the night, and the entire game will depend on which of the two of us (me+ff) can convince Ivy to vote for the other one. Ivy has been so quiet, their vote is a bit of a wild card, and I am a bit hesitant on leaving the me vs you vote in her hands. I think I would much rather Egix be the one to make that decision.

So today, I think the vote needs to be either me or ivy, and then leave bell for ivy to deal with tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

fferyllt, I think you and I might have put up enough for everyone else to read once they get back in lol

So I am gonna step away for a bit, and check back in after (hopefully) everyone else has gotten a chance to weight in.

[Lukewarm]

Quick side note before I disappear: I have no interest in sitting down and reading other player's back logs of games. I much prefer to focus on the game that I am currently playing. If anyone else finds anything interesting, feel free to share, but that is just not my cup of tea.

[Lukewarm]

I have reconsidered the idea of voting out bell today. If we vote out bell today, then Egix dies in the night, and the entire game will depend on which of the two of us (me+ff) can convince Ivy to vote for the other one. Ivy has been so quiet, their vote is a bit of a wild card, and I am a bit hesitant on leaving the me vs you vote in her hands. I think I would much rather Egix be the one to make that decision.

So today, I think the vote needs to be either me or ivy, and then leave bell for ivy to deal with tomorrow.

If we vote Bell today I think that's the best chance we have of there being a day 4. He's my strongest scumread. Voting you or ivy increases the chances that scum win today. Voting me assures that scum win today. but that's knowledge that other town don't have and all I can do is play my town-heart out here and hope that other town players recognize that.

If you're town, then buck up and do the same - plan on surviving today so there's a day 4 that town has a chance of winning.

I am almost certain that that play will decrease the likelihood that town will win. If we vote out Bell today, then Day 4 will almost certainly be me, you, Ivy. And the town's win or lose will come down to which of us is better at swaying Ivy to vote the other person. Having seen how you play, I am not confident that I will be able to talk Ivy into making the right choice.

Quite honestly, I think you are more experienced / overall better player of this game then I am, and when it comes down to you vs me trying to convince Ivy, I am not confident that I can win. So I think town's best bet at winning, is placing the hard decision in the hands of Egix.

From my PoV my options are

• help vote Bell today, and then I lose the game for the whole town on Day 4
  
• put our fate in Egix's hands

[Lukewarm]

How much mafia experience do you have, out of curiosity?

Short form mafia, quite a bit. My family played One Night Ultimate Werewolf at least one night a week, every week (and often more) for several months. But 1) that is a very different game and 2)I was trying to read/trick my family members, not strangers on the internet lol.
Additionally, like 6ish years ago, I played some on Epic Mafia.

Long form mafia, not much. This is my first game on here. I have played a handful of games in a discord server, although once again, that server was full of people I knew irl (friends/family), plus those games moved a lot faster then this site. Like 2 irl days per in game day)

[Lukewarm]

So I think town's best bet at winning, is placing the hard decision in the hands of Egix.

Our fate is in Egix' hands.

so yeah, see you in six days I guess

[Lukewarm]

to be clear, I'm having trouble holding onto a Lukewarm scumread.

I do not like this. Maybe this is just because I am approaching everything you said with the mindset that you must be scum, so I am actively looking for an ulterior motive, but I immediately spotted an ulterior motive for softening your read on me.

You came into today confident that it was bell+me. Then suggested we vote bell first, which would leave it as me vs you tomorrow.

Then I started pushing for us to not vote bell today, and now you are softening your read on me.

That says to me that you want to put that message out there in case you get voted out today, it is easier for bell to win in a day 4 situation where it is me v Bell with Ivy having to choose between the two of us. In that situation, Bell could quote this exact message to say "see, ff and luke were partners all along. she pushed me hard Day 3, but she floated luke's possible innocence."

[Lukewarm]

I mean, softening your opinion on me cannot possibly make me think you are town. I know, for a fact, that me and Egix are clear. Therefore, there must be 2 scum out of you, bell, and Ivy.

Unless the purpose of Post 700 was to throw Ivy back into suspicion? Because I really don't see that.

[Lukewarm]

Yeah, I cannot image that play coming from town.

Especially

if they are replacing out, because they could have just let their replacement vote for who every Egix chooses.

[Lukewarm]

This play further steels in my mind that you are his partner, not Ivy (not that I was really suspicious of Ivy to begin with). If the scum team was bell+ivy, that was a game losing play, when they were in an almost unlosable possition.

Bell+Ivy could have just waited on you and I to duke it out, and they would have won regardless of which of us won over Egix today. If I got my way, we would have voted either you or me today, and the game would have ended immediately when the vote passed. If you got your way, then Day 4 would have started with you/me/Ivy alive, and neither you nor I suspicious of Ivy. In that scenario, I would have voted you no matter what.

Bell+Ivy should not be a pair that should be considered at all anymore, imo

[Lukewarm]

I'm more than satisfied he should be the elim.

I have already outlined why I think voting bell today is not the best more for town, and it had nothing to do with me thinking that they could be town, and everything to do with my belief that letting Day 4 start with you/me/Ivy left being a more dangerous choice for town then letting egix decide between us today.

If anything, I felt like this makes me more confident that we should leave Bell for Ivy to deal with tomorrow, because they have essentially outed themselves as scum with this play, so tomorrow's vote will be a formality more then anything else.

I feel like we can all agree that this is not something Town-Bell would do, so lets aske the question, what would Scum-Bell hope to gain by making the play of outing themselves today?

I think I found my answer quite quickly, seeing as how your immediate response was to try and use that play as an extra reason why we should vote Bell today. You+Bell are hanging your chance at a win on the Day 4 [Luke/Ivy/FF] scenario.

[Lukewarm]

Thank tlaloc I'm not his partner.

That was a gamethrow of a move. He obscummed himself. I mean, there's still a chance town loses this, but the game has gotten easier.

Based on your experience with Bell, you are going to look at that play and assume he is just throwing the game? Screw his partner, and screw his future replacement?

My immediate question was "what does the scum team hope to gain from him making this play," and then immediately saw you try to use it to push the vote on Bell today. Lines up pretty clearly from my PoV

[Lukewarm]

Your not seeing how egregious the issue and still wanting to push me looks partnery. Probably the most untownlike push you've made all game.

I haven't done that reset and read yet, and this play makes me feel like it's probably not even needed.

I saw one scum make a play, and then saw their partner say "based on the play of the other scum, I think we should do X"

So in response, I said "maybe we shouldn't do exactly what the scum is suggesting we do."

[Lukewarm]

Pretty sure that is the most town stance I could take in this situation

[Lukewarm]

I was 99% sure you were scum (

with like a 1% of, but what if Ivy

). Bell's play has eliminated the possibility of it being Ivy. So I am now 100% sure you are scum. So I don't particularly want to follow your advice on how to handle the day.

[Lukewarm]

Never in a million years would scum-me make a play like that.

I would not be the first player to hard-push my scum partner.

You would never bus your partner to try and take a win? I thought you said you were experienced at this game. Bussing / allowing yourself to be bussed it regularly the best play for mafia, but you would never bus your scum partner?

I would never agree to my partner leaving a vote on my while they replace out.

I'm supportive of replace-outs with my scum partners but I would want them to leave me in the best possible place for going on to win.

This is nothing like the best possible place for scum-me to be.

I have already explained that I think that this is the best possible pace for you to be in for a win. Bell outing themselves gave you two different plays to make to try and win this game, and you have already tried to use both of them.
1) If you could try to convince me to go along with voting Bell today, then his death could be used to further your game plan of bussing him today, in order to win tomorrow. or
2) If I fought against it, you could try to frame it as indicative that we were partnered, or as you put it, that I was making

Probably the most untownlike push you've made all game

[Lukewarm]

You just what you think of Bell making this play:

That was a gamethrow of a move.

So I would like for you to stop, and analyze Bell making that play.

• Do you think he is a jerk, who purposefully made a bad play, because he knew he was replacing out?
  
• Do you think he is a bad player, who did not think about the fact that making that vote would out him as scum?
  
• Do you think that he was making a play, trying to manipulate the way the day, trying to help the scum win?

I am pretty sure it is option 3. Which leads to the question, making that play, who does it help?

Is bell outing himself more likely to convince Egix to vote Bell (which is what you want) or is it more likely to make Egix want to vote for one of the two of us (which is what I want).

Before he made that play, you wanted us to vote Bell. After he made that play, you used it as further evidence that a Bell vote today was the safest vote of the day, and you used to describe my plan as "the most untownlike" plan I could endorse.

From my own PoV, I feel like Bell outing himself has made it considerably harder for me to reach the goal I outlined.

[Lukewarm]

This post just popped into my mind. posting it so I don't forget about it by tomorrow.

atm, I'm trying to see if I can find a good partner for Demainer. I still haven't been liking their posts, but I've felt pretty equal on most everyone else, which is of course a problem.

What is the point of bringing this up? Are you trying to bring Ivy back into suspicion?

I think that I have pretty clearly outlined why it could not possibly be Bell+Ivy in post 714.

If it was Ivy+me, we would have won the game the moment Bell voted for you.

So I am unclear what angle you could approach that at. If anything, bringing that post up highlights why I am worried about leaving the game determining decision in Ivy's hands.

[Lukewarm]

Luke, I can't really entertain that because I know incontrovertibly that it's false. That's info that only I have.

Bell is going to flip scum 99.99% and I want to go for the sure thing and hope that if I'm wrong about you, more data will help me figure it out.

Bell doesn't enjoy being scum because he feels like he's bad at it. The one other time that Bell replaced out of a game I was playing, he was scum. Life got busy and he dropped off the site entirely for a couple of years. Drawing a scum role during that time made it easier. I feel like that plays into how he plays this.

And sadly, I think the way he replaced out points away from you in that there's a strong likelihood that he's elimmed and I think you would have been trying to get him to look as town as possible when he replaced out.

and yet at the same time it also points at you because you want my miselim today so the game ends today and not in a 2-1 battle tomorrow, and maybe you feel that a vote already down on me is the best position Bell can make for you.

I feel like it's suboptimal, but I play a low-key scum game and like to just sit back and let town make mistakes when I can.

If Town-Bell really did believe I'm scum, he would have put a case together on me, and most likely wouldn't have dropped a vote.

Ugh. Getting you to answer my questions is so hard. Maybe it is the way I have formatted my own posts, I'm not sure.

But this is not the first time that I have made posts that were structured as "fferyylt, I would like you to analyze x, and answer these questions. Here is my own analysis / answers" and your response jumps to combatting my own analysis/answers instead of addressing my questions directed at you. You did this happened multiple times on day 2 as well, in regards to Demainer.

I cannot tell if you are purposefully dancing around my questions, or if it is because of the way I have it formatted (ie, I end with my own answers, therefore that is the part you focus on in your response)

Should I be formatting my posts differently? Like maybe, asking the questions, but then holding back my own answers until after you have responded?

I don't mind you analyzing/combatting my answers, but I also would like to be able to get clear answers from you as well (which is why I asked them in the first place.)

[Lukewarm]

I'll try again.

I would like for you to analyze Bell making that play.

• Do you think he purposefully made a bad play, because he knew he was replacing out?
  
• Do you think he did not think about the fact that making that vote would out him as scum?
  
• Do you think that he was being strategic with that vote. attempting to help his partner as much as he could before exiting the game?

If you decide that it is option 3, I would like you to also answer the question: in making that play, who does it help?
Does it help or make it harder for me to get what I want? (For Egix to push todays vote on either you or me)
Does it help or make it harder for you to get what you you? (For Egix to push todays vote on Bell)


Another question I came up with since my original post:
Imagine we follow your lead; vote bell today, and enter into Day 4 with you, me, and Ivy. Do you think Bell's vote against you today make Ivy more likely to vote me or to vote you Day 4?

[Lukewarm]

So I've been in a similar situation in video, and was told that I shouldn't out my reads on

the two that we're probably not executing (FF and Luke in this case)

today because it could give Scum a better idea who to kill does that appliy here too?

I guess this proves that you are better at convincing Ivy then I am

[Lukewarm]

^^ Scum.

Replacing out leaving a vote on another player at ELO is absolutely not something Town-Bell would do.

I'm more than satisfied he should be the elim.

Fmpov it would be reckless of me to say he must be scum for it, but it is indeed extremely irresponsible.
The thing is that it's caused a shift in the dynamic since I was feeling like the cross vote was likely to be ffery v. Luke.

This afternoon I should be able to make a start on re-reading.

I guess from an outside PoV, it only really proves that either Bell or Ivy or both must be scum, because any TvT scenario would have already resulted in a loss.

From Ivy's PoV, she knows for certain Bell's alignment no matter what, TvS, SvT, or SvS

Spoiler:

its SvS

From my PoV, it proves Bell+fferyllt. The play clears Ivy in my mind Post 714, and I already know I am clear

[Lukewarm]

Ivyeo I ISO'd your slot and noted that you believed it was Demainer>Egix in terms of your evil team, yet somehow the conversation has been more about me and FFery. Some other notable feelings I saw is this strange inference of 'not wanting to get it wrong' earlier in the game with a lot of loose dialogue, and then coming in with strong convictions towards your team. Where exactly did this change and more importantly, why are you not fighting over it?

Actually Egix being the cop clear puzzles me a bit further in regards to what I asked Ivyeo

Because the amount of information available to players change over time...

Ivy's demainer>egix post was 341. Egix was cleared by a cop on 343. So discussing Egix's alignment compared to other people became a moot point almost immediately after she made that post.

We are not pas post 750, Demainer is dead and Egix is cop cleared. Of course the conversation has moved past those two.

Maybe only looking at ISOs is making you lose the context of the gamestate when various posts were made?

[Lukewarm]

@luke
I may be missing something, you're scared to go for bell because you're afraid of a FF+You+Me in F3 right?

Basically. If we vote Bell, then we will start day 4 with ff+me+you, and the whole game, win of lose, will hinge on my ability to convince you to vote ff more convincingly then ff's ability to convince you to vote for me. And that terrifies me.

I would much rather the town's win be determined by Egix making a decision today, then for it to all rest on my persuasive ability compared to ff tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

Hey ffery and everyone else

I haven't read much of anything but did feel like ffery/bell (myself) could be potentially warring against another as tvt

Imo, this is not an option that anyone, including a Town-you, should entertain.

If your slot was town and voted ff who is also town, then replaced out, then mafia would have had an certain victory. Both mafia could have voted against FF, and won. With him replacing out, they could have done so very safely because they knew they had a while before the slot could change the vote.

From any perspective, bell's vote on fferyllt has confirmed that there must be a minimum of one (and I believe two) mafia between [unwnd / fferyllt]

[Lukewarm]

if luke is town you and I can't both be town. it's simple math at this point.

if you're town you can be trying to figure out if one of luke/me is town

If unwnd is town, they should know 100% that you are scum. Because a town bell vote on a town you would have been a scum win. I am unclear why they seem apprehensive on that tbh.

[Lukewarm]

if luke is town you and I can't both be town. it's simple math at this point.

if you're town you can be trying to figure out if one of luke/me is town

If unwnd is town, they should know 100% that you are scum. Because a town bell vote on a town you would have been a scum win. I am unclear why they seem apprehensive on that tbh.

Nvm, kept reading and saw where unwnd adjusted their stance a bit in post 780

[Lukewarm]

I would like a more definitive stance from Lukewarm at the least as to why he thinks Ivyeo is town, and I've noted that you still townread her but it's not golden or anything.

If they were mafia, they would have a partner, who I am pretty sure would be trying to give them some help and direction. They seem very unsure on what stances to take, and I feel like that would have softened at some point if they were in a mafia chat with a partner helping them. But they feel kind of alone.

I did an ISO read on Ivy, specifially looking for any kind of change in their play style when they could have potentially gained a new partner, either saudade->bell or endlessdark->fferyllt, and did not see any indication that they had gained a new perspective in their mafia chat.

Then Clasko said he was feeling the same way (Ivy feeling partnerless), and him feeling that way validated my own read.

And now, bell's vote on fferylt has proven that it could not be

bell

you+Ivy, further wittling away at the possibility of Ivy being mafia in my mind.

I really, really don't think it could be Ivy, but if I were to entertain the idea, they would have to be partnered with fferyllt, which further locks it down in my mind that fferyllt is the best vote today. And if the day does play out with us voting fferyllt, I guess you can try to make the case that it is Ivy over you tomorrow lol.

[Lukewarm]

I'm just not sure what direction town is heading. I'd love to hear from Egix on this.

1,000 times this

[Lukewarm]

Progress update: I have made notes on the first 15 pages so far.
I was feeling tempted to just spoiler them all and say "No Peeking" but nah, people would just be cheeky and look anyway.
What I will say, though, is that there's a certain person I've talked myself into thinking is scum. It's figuring out who's the other one that's the harder part.

Holding back makes some sense, but I do wish you would do more to lead the conversation, even without revealing your roles yet. While you are playing reserved, it feels like the mafia is getting a lot of leeway to lead the town conversations, and that is not a great feeling imo. Maybe you could pose questions for each of us to answer? That way you could lead the conversation without giving anything away.

With you and Ivy both being quiet, I just feel so outnumbered in the conversation

[Lukewarm]

Luke, part of what puts me off about you is that you express such singleminded confidence that I'm scum and you've solved the game.

I know tunneling is a thing, and it's not the first time I've been tunneled, but the singlemindedness of it in a situation where a miselim loses the game today is over the top enough that I'm having difficulty reevaluating YOU. Every time I start thinking about how Ivy's play has an opaqueness to it that's troubling, that thought trail gets sidetracked by the sheer intensity of your tunneling, and whether that's something a logical (based on your own posts) player would do here.

Tunneling is something that town and scum both do. Look no further than how Demainer was tunneled on Ivy to a similar degree on day 2.

Is it really tunneling, when I have considered all the options? And posted my thoughts on all of the options as well?

From my PoV, the only possible options are: [you+unwnd] [you+Ivy] [unwnd+Ivy]

I considered all of them, and from my PoV [you+unwnd] makes the most sense to me, [you+Ivy] has the slimmest of chances of being possible, but then [unwnd+Ivy] makes the least amount of sense. That would mean Bell made a game losing play when they were well on track to winning. Like they could have just sat back an won the game.

Once I drop that from consideration, my only options left are[you+unwnd] or [you+Ivy]
So from my PoV, either way, it just has to be you.

I am pretty sure that it is unwnd over Ivy as your partner, but when we walk into day 4, I will give unwnd a shot to try and convince me otherwise (but I admit, that will be an uphill battle).

Spoiler:

and didn't you come into day 3 with "singleminded confidence" that bell was scum?

[Lukewarm]

That thought trail gets sidetracked by the sheer intensity of your tunneling, and whether that's something a logical (based on your own posts) player would do here.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say here, are you suggesting that Luke's tunnel is illogical and therefore contradictory to the rest of his play?

Logic-based rethinking is one of the things players can do to avoid getting themselves tunneled about another player.

Luke's play is logic-based and I'm trying to figure out why his tunnel is so intense given that.

I'm falling back on a mindset that's usually my baseline in games. I've gotten tilted, and I'm trying to find equilibrium again. My usual mindset is to look at play and see if I can see a town mindset in it. Even if someone's dead wrong or completely antithetical to what I'm thinking, it can still be a town mindset.

From my PoV, the only way it can not be you, is if it is [unwnd+ivy]. Unless there is a really good case made for the the [unwnd+Ivy] pair, there is not really a reason for me to take you out of the center of my suspicions.

If you want to call that tunneling, go for it I guess

[Lukewarm]

There is more backing it up them my own reads (which I have scum read you for a while tbh)

You were also Clasko's first pick for us to vote out yesterday

I've made my decision:

VOTE: fferyllt

Egix made a case for your slot having to be scum before you even replaced in.

VOTE: Endlessdark slot

And then even you argued against the idea that you could be town from my PoV.

I'm about 99.9% sure of Bell. The probability of Ivy-scum with Bell is incredibly low.

And I don't see Ivy or Unwnd making a case that they are a scum team either.

So I have my own reads / Clasko's read / Egix's day 2 logic / even your own logic to go on.

There are no signs pointing to a Ivy+Unwnd team, but an awful lot of signs all pointed at you.

[Lukewarm]

Ugh. I hate this feeling. It feels like I am stuck in a room being gaslit. I am literally trapped in a conversation that is me+2 scum (with the very occasional chime in from Egix or Ivy). If I am going to stay involved in the conversation, I am going to need some substantial input from Egix so I'd don't feel like I am going this alone.

Spoiler:

As for the Ahri vote, I am pretty sure I made my stance really clear at the time. I did not have any strong scum reads, and the way they were playing was annoying. Long periods of posting nothing, then popping in with posts meming about being scum. They were either scum using that as a defense, or they were someone who was not going to help us win, and were therefore a better Day 1 miselim then the other possibilities. As the day went on, my scum read on Wheme got stronger, so I moved my vote.

[Lukewarm]

Ugh. I hate this feeling. It feels like I am stuck in a room being gaslit. I am literally trapped in a conversation that is me+2 scum (with the very occasional chime in from Egix or Ivy). If I am going to stay involved in the conversation, I am going to need some substantial input from Egix so I'd don't feel like I am going this alone.

Spoiler:

As for the Ahri vote, I am pretty sure I made my stance really clear at the time. I did not have any strong scum reads, and the way they were playing was annoying. Long periods of posting nothing, then popping in with posts meming about being scum. They were either scum using that as a defense, or they were someone who was not going to help us win, and were therefore a better Day 1 miselim then the other possibilities. As the day went on, my scum read on Wheme got stronger, so I moved my vote.

This pisses me off. You're not being gaslit by me.

I'm fucking trying to figure this game out and I'm trying to give all three of you as fair a shake as possible in the process.

Honestly, it has nothing to do with how you are playing the game, and everything to do with the fact that the two people I think are actually town are the two least active players in the thread.

So far in Day 3

• I have 43 posts
  
• Ivy has 13 posts
  
• Egix has
  6 posts
  
  
  
• ffery has 71 posts
  
• Unwnd has 34 posts

So from my PoV town has 62 posts, 70% of them coming from me, and scum has 105 posts.
So I left feeling like I am single handedly having to address and counter argument every single point being made by scum, and so I feel like I am fighting an uphill battle all alone.

Nothing to do with you, your playing the game the way you should be playing the game given the game state. But from my PoV the scum team is in full control of the direction of the thread, which is bad, and I am not going to get any help to fix that issue. And I simply am not equipped to single handedly try and keep the thread on a town-win focused thread.

So I think I need to just admit defeat until my confirmed town SE comes back and can help me. I've made my view clear, It is almost certainly ffery+unwnd, with the smallest of small possible chance that it is ffery+Ivy, and so I strongly think we need to vote ffery today. I'll rejoin the chat after we hear from Egix.

[Lukewarm]

I've been rethinking Ivy. :/

Same actually

[Lukewarm]

What I will say, though, is that there's a certain person I've talked myself into thinking is scum.

Tl;dr that person was Luke.

Oh my god, get me out of this game....

[Lukewarm]

There is more backing it up them my own reads (which I have scum read you for a while tbh)

You were also Clasko's first pick for us to vote out yesterday

I've made my decision:

VOTE: fferyllt

Egix made a case for your slot having to be scum before you even replaced in.

VOTE: Endlessdark slot

And then even you argued against the idea that you could be town from my PoV.

I'm about 99.9% sure of Bell. The probability of Ivy-scum with Bell is incredibly low.

And I don't see Ivy or Unwnd making a case that they are a scum team either.

So I have my own reads / Clasko's read / Egix's day 2 logic / even your own logic to go on.

There are no signs pointing to a Ivy+Unwnd team, but an awful lot of signs all pointed at you.

Confirmed town doesn't mean confirmed right.
I'm just... not sure I like that this is the card you're choosing to play here.

I never said that it did. I have explained multiple times how I have come to the conclusion that it must be ffery in multiple posts, and then also feel vindicated a bit because everything everyone else is saying lines up with my own logic. Like, literally look at 807, the post immediately before that one.

[Lukewarm]

This is what I have seen from ffery, that terrifies me, and is the main reason I came into today saying that I do not want to go into Day 4 with both me and ffery.

She replaced in, and multiple people had her slot pinned down as scum. And she started posting, and posting, and posting, and she managed to crack that perception. And then she kept posting and posting and posting, and managed to convince the entire lobby that Demainer was the correct vote.

Spoiler:

While I did think that Demainer was scum, I openly advocated against voting him off Post 611, I outlined that a vote against demainer, if he did flip town, would put us in a much more precarious position then voting ffery (and here we are)

But ffery kept posting, and posting, and posting, and all 4 members of town followed the vote she recommended. Like, from my PoV all 4 votes on Demainer were town, and that terrifies me.

And then today, she has posted, and posted, and posted. She is 43% of all posts today, in a 5 person game. And she has successfully talked Egix into thinking I am scum, and also made everyone (myself included) unsure of their town reads on Ivy.

Fferyllt keeps saying that she would never play this way as scum, but from my PoV the way she is posting is very successfuly leading the town to its own destruction. She convinced the town that her slot shouldn't be locked under suspicion, she convinced the town that we should vote out Demainer, she convinced the confirmed town that I am scum, and she has convinced everyone to become suspicious of Ivy.

If we do not vote out Fferyllt today, please vote me. Put me out of my misery.

[Lukewarm]

Side note: I am now aware that that is called open wolfing on this site lol. What confused me at the time when Demainer said that I might be open wolfing, was that I have head open wolfing being used in the past to mean "opening saying you are a wolf" if for example, in a game of One Night Ultimate Werewolf, there are times that the werewolves can outnumber the town, and once that happens the best bet is to reveal yourself as a werewolf.

[Lukewarm]

and also made everyone (myself included) unsure of their town reads on Ivy.

Can you tell me what this exactly means? Are you still thinking it's me/FFery?

ffery has been steadily working away at the idea that Ivy could be scum all through out Day 3. I feel like she has tried a bit to get me to consider a Bell/you + Ivy possibility. I still don't see that combination as possible, but I am cracking a bit on my hard Ivy is town stance, and am becoming less sure if you or Ivy are ffery's partner. But imo, that is an issue for Day 4 Luke to deal with.

Give yourself agency if that's what's holding you back. The way you're playing right now scares me. You want me to reevaluate Bell, but I need YOU to process the game now. Bell's gone and none of the questions I want to ask him can be asked now.

I feel I've talked about my own disposition and I don't feel privy to repeat it. My personal feeling is seeing the game in two ways

1) You/Luke are sweating in a mafia PT together while trying to maintain the proposed image throughout this whole day, while a despondent town Ivyeo feels like she has no voice
2) One of you/Luke is shielding Ivyeo

I am proposing the 2nd option right now and have been since I repped in. However, I don't want to be fooled. I don't want to be the person who says 'let's rethink this' then have Ivyeo just end up town. The question I have to ask you is this: in a situation where scum is one lim away from victory, do you think now would be the time to bet it all? Do you still scumread Lukewarm? I've seen you two slowly backing off from another

If you want to push a me+ffery team, more power to you, but I honestly cannot imagine anyone considering me+Ivy after Bell left that vote on ffery. That would have been a slam dunk win.

Bell's vote on ffery proves that one of the two must be scum. It does not necessarily prove which is scum, but it proves that one of them are. The fact that both unwnd and ffery are putting it out there that they are considering scum teams that do no include the other one is completely baffling to me.

[Lukewarm]

Hate to break it to you, but this attitude isn't doing much to make me change my mind :/

Then I don't know what else to say. If Egix is scum reading me, then we are probably going to lose, so I guess I am going to take a gamble.

I am going to vote fferyy, and intend to keep it there until the end of the game. If I am town + fferyy is town, we lose, but I am pretty sure that combo was going to lose no matter what from this game state.

I would still recommend everyone else, who is town, to hold off voting until the end of the day.

If we don't lose, then I think this proves one of the two of us must be scum.

VOTE: fferyy

Once everyone has checked in, if we don't lose, then at least we have some new concrete info to go off of.

because of Bell's vote, one of unwnd+fferry must be scum
and because of this vote, one of luke+fferry must be scum

we can work on it from there.

[Lukewarm]

I'm going to be honest that just sounds like scum who has run out of options

I mean or town who has run out of options.

If I do nothing, and Egix ends the day with a scum read on me, we lose the game. No matter how hard I try, I cannot keep up with the sheer volume of posts coming from you and fferyy, so talking it out seems pointless.

The mafia team gets two shots at this. If Egix chooses one of them, they still get to go on to day 4. I don't have a second shot here. If I am the vote today, I lose. So hail marry attempt to limit all possible ways for this game to be read. Assuming this game does not end the moment Ivy logs on, this play will lock the game state in to exactly two possibilities.:

Either, the team is me+undwnd OR fferyy is scum.

Once we have limited down all possibilities that need to be considered, maybe we can get somewhere.

[Lukewarm]

I think to him it was a hero vote, and maybe it was

But your reactions to everything, your general discourse and presence. Does not seem like scum to me. We can both be fools in the end if you want

Do you not see that this stance does not help me in my postion? lol

From my PoV, it is quite literally impossible for you and fferyy to both be town.

Not that it matters if you are scum

, but if that is the stance you are taking, and you are my town mate, what alternative do I have to this play?

[Lukewarm]

GG I guess.

Since it is apparently unwnd+ivy, I am pretty sure we were losing anyways. Egix was probably directing us to either vote fferyy or myself today (and we would have lost then), but even if we went in to Day 4 with me+fferyy+Ivy, pretty sure we I would have voted fferyy there and lost anyways lol

[Lukewarm]

GG I guess.

Read that back, and it came across sarcastic lol.

Definitly gg,

the I guess was because when I started typing it was not 100% over. it is now haha

[Lukewarm]

@Ivy, I was on the fence about you, but then everyone else had you town read. And then it was this little line, buried in the middle of a bigger post, that made me think you might be a Doctor

^^ I townread this when I did my first readthrough, especially where she was talking about her reads. I felt like she was showing her analysis, and although it's not really deep analysis, there's definitely some thinking-through that seems efforty for newbscum.

but video mafia for a few weeks, depending on frequency could be a fair bit of game experience even though video/in person is fast and pretty different from text based/forum mafia with long game days.

Played maybe 4 or 5 games a week for a month or two, but each gaame was also a "mini mafia" game which was fast even for video mafia, I just couldn't really keep up with it and felt more like I was just bringing my team down. So I do have experience, but I don't think it really relates here.

As for the consistency, it's consistent in that something about it just sorta felt off

I come in and go from a null read to a POE scumread within a page and the comment it elicited was something about if I was going to put her at E-1.

(idk how to do the qoute thing where you break it into multiple statements so ig I'll just use quote blocks)
I can assure you there is a reason I was asking about e-1,

I wanted to know if I should claim sooner rather than later so town knows if I'm VT or PR

Ivy's inactivity could be fatalism, or deliberate.

Mostly like, a fuckton of things all coming up these past few days and aaaaaaaa. Still trying to keep up and read though.

As for my vote, Demainer still appears the most likely scum for me. Most of the points I made earlier still being my opinion. FF has shown at times to being pushing for a handful of people at once, but they still seem to be looking for the scummiest of them all.

[Lukewarm]

Like, if it had been a post all by itself, I think I would have doubted it more, but it was seemed subtly slipped in. Good job haha

[Lukewarm]

I think the scum team was helped a lot this game by just how slow day 1 was. The fact that Ivy was not posting much was shadowed a lot in Day 1 because no one was posting much, and Ivy, you were not even the quietest player. You were at least posting more then Ahri.

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, post 464 is why went into shield-mode on Ivy on Day 2. I figured that post was made either by a town PR or scum. I didn't want to say it yet, but I felt like the longer Ivy went without PR claiming today in ELO, the more likely she was scum. I was really torn on whether to speak those words into existence or not.

Another think that shifted her out of my concideration, for me at least, was the fact that you brought me back into suspicion

When I was being universally town read, I was juggling around how to best approach you+bell+demainer+Ivy. But then you put me back in suspicion, so I applied that same logic to the new top 4 scum read players, and that put me in there and took ivy out haha

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, post 464 is why went into shield-mode on Ivy on Day 2. I figured that post was made either by a town PR or scum. I didn't want to say it yet, but I felt like the longer Ivy went without PR claiming today in ELO, the more likely she was scum. I was really torn on whether to speak those words into existence or not.

I was thinking I really should just claim Doctor who was Roleblocked, but I was worried town would say "why wouldn't scum just RB the cop and try to kill them" or something

At that point, you could have just said that they wanted clasko gone over you being gone. But your way worked out anyways haha

[Lukewarm]

^^ I townread this when I did my first readthrough, especially where she was talking about her reads. I felt like she was showing her analysis, and although it's not really deep analysis, there's definitely some thinking-through that seems efforty for newbscum.

but video mafia for a few weeks, depending on frequency could be a fair bit of game experience even though video/in person is fast and pretty different from text based/forum mafia with long game days.

Played maybe 4 or 5 games a week for a month or two, but each gaame was also a "mini mafia" game which was fast even for video mafia, I just couldn't really keep up with it and felt more like I was just bringing my team down. So I do have experience, but I don't think it really relates here.

As for the consistency, it's consistent in that something about it just sorta felt off

I come in and go from a null read to a POE scumread within a page and the comment it elicited was something about if I was going to put her at E-1.

(idk how to do the qoute thing where you break it into multiple statements so ig I'll just use quote blocks)
I can assure you there is a reason I was asking about e-1, I wanted to know if I should claim sooner rather than later so town knows if I'm VT or PR

Ivy's inactivity could be fatalism, or deliberate.

Mostly like, a fuckton of things all coming up these past few days and aaaaaaaa. Still trying to keep up and read though.

As for my vote, Demainer still appears the most likely scum for me. Most of the points I made earlier still being my opinion. FF has shown at times to being pushing for a handful of people at once, but they still seem to be looking for the scummiest of them all.

I took a deep sigh and I think I might just wait for Egix too, because I actually had an adversely negative reaction to that post

Luke's post?

The emotion in that post is so close to how I feel about this game.

I'm going to keep working through the data from your slot. Bell next, and then your posts.

This is the moment where I finally softened to the idea that you were town. You feeling the same way, while unwnd didn't. Made me think "Maybe unwnd has a partner, but ffery doesnt."

Like I started thinking that, but then Clasko came in and said that I was his number one scum read, and that broke me

[Lukewarm]

opps mis-quoted somehow?

[Lukewarm]

Meant to have these two

I love this post.

I don't want to love it.

But I do.

I took a deep sigh and I think I might just wait for Egix too, because I actually had an adversely negative reaction to that post

Luke's post?

The emotion in that post is so close to how I feel about this game.

I'm going to keep working through the data from your slot. Bell next, and then your posts.

[Lukewarm]

alone

Fun Fact, I didn't get a single reply in mafia chat from Saudade T.T

ewww
I'm sorry. And coming from a SE mafia partner in a newbie game too

[Lukewarm]

Luke, its a natural tendency to think that being scumread has to come from scum. my advice is to find ways to detect that you are tunneling

That is not quite what I meant. It wasn't, you scum read me, so you are scum. It was "I can think of a path to victory if I have a pool of 4 suspects but not 5." Once you started to convince others that I was possibly scum, I did not think I could leave myself out of the pool of suspects anymore, so I moved Ivy out

[Lukewarm]

This is the moment where I finally softened to the idea that you were town. You feeling the same way, while unwnd didn't. Made me think "Maybe unwnd has a partner, but ffery doesnt."

Like I started thinking that, but then Clasko came in and said that I was his number one scum read, and that broke me

I think that if Egix had not fingered me as his scum read, I would have come around to a vote on Unwnd. Unwnd was really convincing me that they had to be scum for keeping the "maybe it could be luke+ivy" theory afloat. like I could not imagine town unwnd not assuming fferry was scum.

But then Egix said his top scum read was me, and my brain really did break at that point lol

[Lukewarm]

This does mean that literally all of my reads all game were incorrect.
Day 1, my top team was Clasko+Where
Day 2 before cop claim, Demainer Clasko
Day 2 after top claim, fferyllt + demainer
Day 3 "I am only sure on fferylly"

Hahaha

[Lukewarm]

Progress update: I have made notes on the first 15 pages so far.
I was feeling tempted to just spoiler them all and say "No Peeking" but nah, people would just be cheeky and look anyway.
What I will say, though, is that there's a certain person I've talked myself into thinking is scum. It's figuring out who's the other one that's the harder part.

Tl;dr that person was Luke.

[Lukewarm]

@Ivy Did you and Bell discuss that fferylly vote in the mafia chat? Would love to know the reasoning behind that one.

[Lukewarm]

I'm curious about why Ahri was the N1 kill. I thought it pointed to Saudade.

Sadude said "Ahri is Pr, Kill her" and that was it

That was my guess. because of Ahri's post

hey newer players i'll probably post a full death message upon 5 hours but if you're planning on hammering me b4 then just type smth like

INTENT TO HAMMER

or smth so I can post it b4 then

not a pr soft don't read into it

[Lukewarm]

it's a team game even though as town we don't know for sure who our team is

Yeah, on the last day it just really felt like I did not have a team. It got in my head

[Lukewarm]

Today, scum coasted and waited for a town error, which was soooo likely to happen given all our mutual (mis)reads

It is oddly comforting that the other town players also all had misreads.

Wheme went down with a "Scum are in luke ivy demainer endless"
Demainer had Ivy/ff
Clasko said his prefered vote was fferyllt
Egix has me on his scum team
You had me+unwnd
I had you+unwnd

So there was no one that I can look back to and be like "why didn't I just listen to them?"

[Lukewarm]

I think part of my issue was the thread going from "unbearably slow" to "so much being put out there that I could not possibly respond to it all." And I thought it was all coming from the scum team, so I started to feel like I was being overwhelmed.

If Egix and Ivy were posting 50% as much as I was, then I think I could have accepted me not responding to it all, because the "town team" was responding to it collectively. But I felt like I was in a position, where it was respond to every point being made by both fferylly and unwnd, or just surrender control of the narrative to the scum team. And I did not like either of those options.

[Lukewarm]

And because I was feeling overwhelmed, it started clouding my judgement

[Lukewarm]

I'm sorry I made you feel overwhelmed. I was kinda feeling overwhelmed, too, but not for the same reasons -- like I needed to get my thoughts out there, needed to some how shine a huge town light into the sky that others could recognize, or be the game losing miselim.

I think that it is partly my fault tbh. I think I was trying so hard to reply to as much as I could, that I was giving you more to reply to/think about. I think the harder I tried to fill my desire to "respond to every point that is being made" the more I was exasperating the problem.

I think I need to more carefully choose what I respond to, and what I leave on the table.

[Lukewarm]

In the case of Ivyeo, the main issue I now have with her is that posts 142 and 211 are essentially re-stating a post that was recent at the time, which suggests to me that she's scum who's having trouble forming original posts.

My highlight of this game. But since she was scum, she had plot armour

I think that the point you made in post 313, I ended up taking to the extreme. She seemed to be struggling to the point that I started finding it hard to believe she had a partner. Turns out her partner was just literally not responding to her in the mafia chat