Large Normal 246: Game Over

[davesaz]

Gamma and Black probably town

Gamma has done what so far?

Why not the same amount of puzzlement at both?

[davesaz]

Bloop

VOTE: Elements

[davesaz]

Bloop

VOTE: Elements

Care to elaborate?

It's a so-far-unsuccessful attempt at behavior modification via negative stimulus.

[davesaz]

Well, I wouldn't be that harsh over it I just was curious if dave is the type of person to really dig into a causal question like that early.

In short, yes it's something I do often. There are multiple levels to the question, and asking it that way might reveal whether there is unconscious bias to focus on (or not focus on) different people.

[davesaz]

I'm too late to be the first one to bring up that questioning Elements over apparently getting Dunn and me confused seems pretty nit picky. To me jumping on a "slip" is scum more often than town. Not enough to make a read from but worth remembering.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

VOTE: Elements

Elements (E-6): Black, Elements, davesaz,

[davesaz]

I have what I hope is only a head cold. I may not be as energetic as usual. The night-time so you can rest medicine made me wired instead of sleepy so I feel like I've been in a centrifuge for hours.

I have a soft spot for effort. Those are some good observations on Guillotina. I think my kneejerk townlean on that slot may not be warranted.

[davesaz]

viewtopic.php?p=13977342#p13977342
Full setup of the game I linked earlier

What in the bloody bastard fuck is that setup, everyone are millers!

In case you aren't familiar with them, "BooneyToonz" games (of which that is an example) tend to be a bit more extreme than anything else on site.
This one is a complex normal, which means there are likely to be unusual roles but not too far over the top.

[davesaz]

Someone had CSF as strong town, apparently because of 536.
That isn't a bad post but in isolation it wouldn't be difficult to fake, so I'd question awarding a read based on it.
Maybe after I hit submit I'll go back and see who that was...

[davesaz]

Kyouko, Kawaii, and CSF have the most points I should add. So if anyone has suspicions on those slots I'd love to talk them over with you.

What I was thinking about was this post, but I don't know if Keyleth has said why. Someone else quoted the CSF post that caught my eye.

[davesaz]

Just saying most / least points without any kind of backing feels really shallow and arbitrary to me.

[davesaz]

Tf makes you think I’d want a Guillo wagon? I’ve asked some questions of him but I do that with townreads a lot.

I don't think you want a Guillo wagon particularly, I just think you'd make a nice addition to the townblock I haven't started forming yet but which would theoretically include me, you, Elements and another person or two.

I'll take this as a "no thank you", then.

Though that probably means you are town anyway.

From this I think that Broccoli and Gamma are both a little right in their recent back and forth.
It is somewhat manipulative to say that not conforming would mean not being in the townblock.
It is lessened by saying Gamma's probably town anyway.
I can see where Broccoli could think that takes away the manipulation, but Gamma could think it doesn't.

[davesaz]

I like Keyleth's playstyle
I can see it being town but also a good way to hide as scum

Isn't that a bad thing? Why would you like a style that lets scum hide?

[davesaz]

No bloops

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I disapprove of anti-bloops too. No intentional pagetops.

[davesaz]

Not necessarily all of them no; I think it's expected that there will be people that have gripes with your playstyle. I just think Dave's gripes are coming from scum though - not to say he wouldn't feel the same about your play as town, but he isn't doing anything about it, and it doesn't seem like he's doing much of anything else either. His one thing is that your playstyle is easy to fake as scum, but he's not otherwise making pushes elsewhere or on you. Feels like that's his "I'm doing something" and it's a safe "something" to do as well because your playstyle is easy to fake as scum

I'm seeing who goes apeshit one way or the other and who ignores it. The actual material to read people from on d1 is always thin, and this game is no exception.

[davesaz]

I have what I hope is only a head cold. I may not be as energetic as usual. The night-time so you can rest medicine made me wired instead of sleepy so I feel like I've been in a centrifuge for hours.

Got a decent night's sleep, but now it's a work day.

[davesaz]

Not necessarily all of them no; I think it's expected that there will be people that have gripes with your playstyle. I just think Dave's gripes are coming from scum though - not to say he wouldn't feel the same about your play as town, but he isn't doing anything about it, and it doesn't seem like he's doing much of anything else either. His one thing is that your playstyle is easy to fake as scum, but he's not otherwise making pushes elsewhere or on you. Feels like that's his "I'm doing something" and it's a safe "something" to do as well because your playstyle is easy to fake as scum

I'm seeing who goes apeshit one way or the other and who ignores

it

. The actual material to read people from on d1 is always thin, and this game is no exception.

By "it" you mean your posting about Keyleth? or Keyleth's playstyle? Both?

In some respects, both.
More generally, who responds to my posting and how, and do those I post about seem to care or adjust.

I don't do attack mode in any case.

[davesaz]

640 bothered me because it was so "mediator-ish" without really adding anything thoughtful. I think we could all see both sides, even if personally we would agree with Gamma or with BQ2: Electric Boogaloo. I don't think it's hard to see that Gamma felt the behavior was manipulative and also that BQ2 did not mean it in that way (or at least says he didn't, which feeds more into it feeling manipulative to Gamma)
And it felt like he had not posted in a while so I went back to see when he posted last and what happened.

You'd be surprised how many people

don't

see both sides. In particular though, the two participants who clearly aren't seeing what the other is thinking.

So since it's apparent what the situation is, why post at all? 640 feels like a long post about... nothing.

If I can stop a tunnel by making the two participants see how they are failing to connect, I save the game from having to slog through that. It is pro-town to deobfuscate, and part of my personality as a dad and for other reasons.

And I didnt remember dave posting recently

Better living through chemistry, except when it isn't.

[davesaz]

Is there uh, anything I can do to help dave?

Quote things and say what you think about them would be a good start. More than just like or don't like. For me to evaluate your alignment (or anyone's) I need to know if what you say makes sense given the events, and that's pretty well impossible without a fair amount of because clauses.

[davesaz]

I like Keyleth's playstyle
I can see it being town but also a good way to hide as scum

Isn't that a bad thing? Why would you like a style that lets scum hide?

I can appreciate the desire to keep one's reads close to the chest

It seems my failure to reply after going to sleep was construed as lack of followup by some. Let's remedy that.
Playstyle aside, do you have a read on Keyleth?

[davesaz]

eek, yellow text on sepia. I can tell something is there but have to hilight it to even tell it's text.

I think that case is pretty weak at best, and maybe even a bit opportunistic.

[davesaz]

You could have not done that and let me just get the natural. Plus is Elements even here rn?

[davesaz]

More generally, would anyone stew over a wagon they're pushing on someone else? How does that yield anything AI in either direction?
I would think that stewed wagon would be very tough and chewy.
Chuckwagon stew, as in the style not ingredients, can be tasty.

[davesaz]

I don't think Celebloki has had a single post that wasn't about RN, which is more than a little suspicious.

VOTE: Celebloki

[davesaz]

I don't think Celebloki has had a single post that wasn't about RN, which is more than a little suspicious.

VOTE: Celebloki

This is a better reason than the safe RVS vote stuff but it doesn't appear to be true. It's a little odd that you looked at Celebloki's ISO and came to this conclusion

I did look fairly quickly (it's a work day) -- if I'm wrong please feel free to point something out.

[davesaz]

Maybe I forgot to say non-trivial post or substantial post.

[davesaz]

Elements is a champion baffler for sure.

I'm not inclined to vote for the millers. I think I agree with Gamma's take.

trivial, not AI

I'm not sure. Dunn's claim felt like a joke with it being the first post of the game. Kyouko's feels more real but I'm not familiar enough with her to tell if it's coming from scum

I feel Duun's claim is genuine, millers often claim miller in their opening posts. Duun's miller claim feels straight up, unlikely that mafia plays this directly. Kyouko feels real/potentially opportunistic, shielding herself behind the initial miller claim if she is mafia

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Kyouko claimed miller in her opening post too, it seems unfair to say her claim is illegitimate just because Dunn got to the game first. Not everyone can have the opening post of a game.

I could count this as a post.

VT

I understand why people claim miller early on, but why throw out a VT claim on page 1? I'm coming to this site mostly from a background where claiming was against the rules, so I would love to hear how claiming this helps the town.

So scum will not target me and I can last till end game. I believe in myself to find scum as long as I'm alive long enough. Now I just need to be towny enough to not be voted out. I've eliminated half of the work.

You understand why it's generally anti-town to openly claim VT though, right?

True but how does it progress the game?

It seems like some people are being overly-critical, but maybe it's just people eager to get the game out of an RVS mindset.

Does this progress the game?

And I guess follow-up question, why do you think Kyouko voted me and quoted 217?

I'd have to look at 217 to know whether this is related to RN or not, but suspect it is.

[davesaz]

I think my observation is much stronger than the RVS vote thing. I wouldn't put any priority on that kind of thinking at all.
Neither one is strong in terms of raw numbers. It's like rand+1% for the RVS thing and rand+10% for the lack of engagement thing.

I don't even know if Celebloki is the best candidate for this metric. See argument, research, find something better, lay a vote to see what having a *wagon* does.

[davesaz]

Dunnstral is not doing the things that usually cause me to incorrectly scum read him. I don't have enough data to know if inverting the meta is the right thing to do but it's a mild scumlean.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[davesaz]

681 is weird because it's written out like an rvs vote

I'm slapping people who intentionally pagetop.

[davesaz]

This is at least the 3rd game I've done that since hiatus.

[davesaz]

OK. So what made you vote for me?

You're the next scumlean I wanted to vote.

[davesaz]

davesaz, do you remember 4 hours ago when you made this post?

Is there uh, anything I can do to help dave?

Quote things and say what you think about them would be a good start. More than just like or don't like. For me to evaluate your alignment (or anyone's) I need to know if what you say makes sense given the events, and that's pretty well impossible without a fair amount of because clauses.

In light of this post, do you think it is fair to say that you are not following your own standards for others as written above?

I made a post about you. I didn't elaborate because I didn't want to seem to be offensive, but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.
I had a similar aha moment in a recent game about someone else who happens to be in this game, and flipping that person's meta turned out to be spot on as a scumtell, at least in that game.
So I'm giving it a go here to see if there's anything to it.

[davesaz]

Using this pagetop to announce dave's scumday is my birthday

If you had joined 6 days later we'd be mirrors.

[davesaz]

but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.

Are you referring to this post?

Not exactly, but it's the right game.
This post is where I had the epiphany I'm referring to, about a different player in that game.

[davesaz]

I would like to propose a plan:

Every person list 2-4 people they are sure are town with higher than 90% certainty.

Then we make a pool of 4-5 people who never get voted today.

Then we just wagon a random person who's not in the pool, and repeat the same tomorrow. If the reads are accurate, that gives 33% chance to hit scum each day, or about 60% chance to to succeed on either.

My 2 are Gamma and Nurse btw.

Not loving this idea, it seems a little too guide-the-townies-to-their-death to me.

Thanks, I was having trouble thinking of words that I could use to describe my reaction.
I generally like broccoli, but that post didn't quite taste right to me.

[davesaz]

but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.

Are you referring to this post?

Not exactly, but it's the right game.
This post is where I had the epiphany I'm referring to, about a different player in that game.

Putting that a little differently -- yeah the 1st link is an example of the general type of thing, the 2nd link is evidence that this isn't the first situation where I've used that technique.
It's kinda hard to prove the negative, and it's not an invitation to go off in the weeds to get me to TR you.

[davesaz]

I don't think things that gut ping me are useful to others.

[davesaz]

This is kinda just rhetorical because I'm pretty sure if you were town you should have shared since Gamma was scum in that game

It's only useful if Gamma is scum here, and if she doesn't change to avoid the tell. So far Gamma in this game has been matching up well with previous town meta.

[davesaz]

So. I know you didn't like that when I posted it, but are you aware that in hindsight, It turned out that my theory was correct?

I wrote that between two replacements, one had received their initial role pm and then manually replaced out, rather than both replacements being due to not picking up any pms. One of those slots happened to be mafia, and there is a record of them posting in their pt in between the two pms.

My point is you're framing me as someone who proposes theories that

don't make sense

. However, when I linked you to a

theory that was correct

, you say that it is an example of what you are talking about. You did have a seemingly strong personal dislike of my post at the time, I'm perhaps sensing a personal bias here. I don't suppose you are saying that I open up every town game with a theory?

I would dislike that specific approach (doing any kind of reads based on whether people flake upon seeing role pm) coming from anyone.

There is more nuance to the meta than a single example can convey. The technique I'm trying to use goes roughly like: player does things that I don't like; I scumread them; they're usually town when this happens and scum when it doesn't; I start looking for an absence of things I don't like. I have no idea whether this is going to work or not. It only applies to people I'm always getting spectacularly wrong.

[davesaz]

Let me guess, you won't provide any examples on your own?

From 2+ years ago?
I have a mental list of people I can't read because they post

weird shit

stuff I have to work at really hard to partially understand. Finding examples isn't the top thing on my list of things to do.

[davesaz]

I have to wonder what is on the top of your list of things to do this game, davesaz.

Determine the alignments of as many players as possible.

[davesaz]

To me, resistance is an active process. By that definition I'd say it's overstated.

[davesaz]

I'm asking why is there no help to pressure the slot into giving us more content? Why am I not getting support for that?

The concept is a fine one. Do you have background with Naerys to know what to expect? Any other slots who you think would benefit from more content, perhaps ones who are present more recently / reliably?

[davesaz]

You feel a lot different from this game where it turned out scum were leading a wagon on you.
Naerys + mod iso, day 3 is relevant

[davesaz]

pushed hard on someone day 1

Self evaluate: pushed in that game from a place that had reasoning, or just pushed? What do your reasons, if any, look like here?
The post you quoted on/near the initial vote was Naerys saying that she TRd me and the 2 millers.

Also don't remember if I asked this -- would being a first voter but basically doing nothing since until the last few hours really be "leading"? I don't know if that's the actual situation or not, other than to say I certainly don't remember seeing anything I'd call leadership.

[davesaz]

Having the two largest wagons of the entire day be almost completely disjoint is not giving me any good feelings.
I can't spend time right at bedtime to run this down, with a 7am meeting that I'm a leader for. It will be 2.5 days or less the next time I do have time.

[davesaz]

All naerys said is she's never seen me push on someone day 1. So just saying it's not accurate

If you take the two posts together though, the first one says "without reasoning" and the second one says "like this".
I did not read d1 of that game closely (I replaced in and immediately had to drop into PR mode vs detailed replace mode) so don't know if there were reasons.
I'm interested in your reasoning here independent of whether you think Naerys cares about that.
I'm not sure if you're trying to duck on purpose, but if you are it feels like a wrong reason defense to me.

[davesaz]

Having the two largest wagons of the entire day be almost completely disjoint is not giving me any good feelings.
I can't spend time right at bedtime to run this down, with a 7am meeting that I'm a leader for. It will be 2.5 days or less the next time I do have time.

What do you mean by disjoint?

At the points of the mod's VC's, mostly different people.

[davesaz]

Plus the fact that i tend to be used as a limbait by scum.

Can someone here other than Naerys confirm this?

The iso link I posted is one such example.

[davesaz]

I don't think Naerys is doing that as much as she did in recent games.

[davesaz]

936 is impressively bulky. I don't think the tl/dr is supported by the body.

[davesaz]

I don't think Naerys is doing that as much as she did in recent games.

Doing what as much? Not clear what you're replying to

Why is it that you town read Naerys for?

I like her thoughts and I feel like she's trying to figure out people's alignments

[davesaz]

936 is impressively bulky. I don't think the tl/dr is supported by the body.

Also do you disagree with one or both halves of the tl;dr?

First, to be perfectly clear. I don't think the body of that post supports the tl/dr irrespective of my reads on the players. It seems very much what like one of my old professors called proof by intimidation.
------------------------

I don't see Naerys being towny prior to the wagon on her, and her reaction to the wagon is very different to her reaction from previous games where she was town.

I don't have a strong feeling on Hu Tao.

[davesaz]

I don't see Naerys being towny prior to the wagon on her, and her reaction to the wagon is very different to her reaction from previous games where she was town.

I personally dont agree with this.I get easily frustrated and then i either start yelling or do something stupid.

If you're saying you just haven't snapped yet in this one, that could be a point.

If the lack of being proactive at questioning and pushing to determine alignments is why you're limbaity, then try to fix that. Like someone said a day or two ago if you don't want to be limmed then find someone else who should be.

[davesaz]

It feels to me like you are being vague about this.

I tried to get an actual conclusion from the body and didn't get anything.
It's a bunch of facts (which I haven't verified) but I don't see you saying what you think it means.
I'm a very logic oriented person so a point/analysis structure would make more sense.

[davesaz]

Off and on for 15 or so years.

So you must know how pointing out my post count looks as a retort? It isn't all about post totals, it's about what you do with the posts you can make. Wasn't it you who Broccoli called out to talk about anything in the game not related to yourself, and here you are still, sorry, being petulant?

The activity page shows how many posts in this game, not on site.
Neither of you are very high activity in the game.

I agree that it's what you do with the posts which matters more. I'd rather have 30 content posts than 30 empty pagetops.

[davesaz]

Also I'm posting this for post game. Let this be the game I quote for people to stop trying to meta read me.

I got hammered with that last vote. I was town pr. Congrats. Have fun in the game without me.

What's your full claim?

Sus

[davesaz]

I think this claim is scum trying to get info. From experience as partner with Hu Tao it feels very likely.

[davesaz]

I think this claim is scum trying to get info. From experience as partner with Hu Tao it feels very likely.

When I was scum with you, when was I in a situation like this?

Not the same circumstance, but very much the same technique.
I don't recommend a counter from the real doc, if there is one.

[davesaz]

Technique in terms of resorting to a fakeclaim gambit, not in terms of what or why to claim. (it was a cop fakeclaim that elim'd the actual cop for those who don't know which game to look up)

[davesaz]

I'm willing to give Gob a "get out of the joke claim free" card for an answer soon as to whether agreeing with Kyouko about the miller claim was a joke.

VOTE: Kyouko
If a pivot is required, better it's done promptly. Time's ticking.

[davesaz]

Where is davesaz? seems unusually quiet this game

At the time of your post, sleeping. Also working (unbelievable number of meetings with everyone wanting to wrap stuff before half the team takes holiday break), recovering from the cold I had over the weekend.

The game is relatively quiet. Not a big fan of "me too"ing and it lacks the fireworks of directly competing large wagons.

[davesaz]

so far I'm 2 for 2 at identifying the righteousness as town when it is town, yet to find a scumgame with righteousness

What is this referring to? I don't want to have to find it.

[davesaz]

Gob would you mind telling Kyouoko how i always respond to people who refuse to give reasons?

I have a different meta approach to use on Gamma but can't do it mobile. Maybe later.

Keyleth would be acceptable. I still think Hu Tao is scum but willing to see if she resolves.

[davesaz]

Gob would you mind telling Kyouoko how i always respond to people who refuse to give reasons?

I have a different meta approach to use on Gamma but can't do it mobile. Maybe later.

Keyleth would be acceptable. I still think Hu Tao is scum but willing to see if she resolves.

Well you scumread is leading the key wagon. How do you proceed?

You either have an inflated impression of your influence or a broad definition of leading.

[davesaz]

I have always thought that the thing you're looking for in Gamma is very much her personality and I'd be very surprised if there is enough variance with alignment to make it a reliable tell.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Keyleth

[davesaz]

If you scumread me, are you not suspicious of voting key? Or do you think we are partners

I've never understood the fascination of the whole voting with your scumread thing.
I have independent thoughts on the players I have any thoughts about.
I almost never even think about teams until 1 and usually multiple scum flips.
I almost never think my D1 reads are worth the electrons they're "printed" on.

[davesaz]

this pool of people I feel fine voting

Which is apparently nobody, given you haven't voted.

[davesaz]

My reason for voting Keyleth is an iso full of giving and taking away mysterious town points without much or any stated reasons, having no scumreads at all, and having not voted the entire game not even rvs. I don't know if the others have that same reason.

[davesaz]

I feel like
1. If Hu Tao's claim is real, it's not that helpful of a role right now because we're so early in. It would very hard to correctly guess the NK this early in the game, so even if it's real, scum might just leave them be anyways in hopes they'll get mislimmed before scum want to spend a NK on them
2. Could just be a fake claim because they have a useful scum PR
3. Could just be a fake claim from a goon to try to avoid dying/get value before dying

I feel like if we ignore the claim and lim Hu Tao anyways we would gain a lot more than we stand to lose if they are town. Like risk-reward is in favor of limming Hu Tao.

This triggered a Kyouko wagon, after Hu Tao claimed complex indecisive doc (in 2-3 stages) at lim-2 (I think that's all the modifiers but read the name of the game).

[davesaz]

I have been interpreting "righteousness" as righteous indignation, a "how dare you" type of reaction. I see that from Gamma a lot, but it's the kind of thing that is triggered. If the trigger is absent, the reaction will be absent. I don't see how spending that much time looking for whether reactions are present in a given game is at all useful unless you're also reading what people are saying to / about Gamma to find out if triggers are present as well. In particular, using absence of it to guess at alignment.

[davesaz]

I'm here and willing, but waiting. Don't want to deny any Urist who thinks they've staked a claim.

[davesaz]

I'm here and willing, but waiting. Don't want to deny any Urist who thinks they've staked a claim.

What is a Urist?

Dwarf Fortress joke. Lots of dwarf names include Urist as a component, and the hammerer is the noble who dispenses justice.

[davesaz]

In case the count is off...
VOTE: KawaiiKame

[davesaz]

@MOD do we get flip info for KawaiiKame other than just "townie"?

[davesaz]

Oh wait I understand. Black did the first one. Protected gamma and they both died.

This is complete nonsense. Gamma wouldn't be targeted by her own team.

[davesaz]

I think Hu Tao distanced Gamma the same way she distanced me when we were scum together. I also see her exaggerating her scumread after the fact.

[davesaz]

Oh wait I understand. Black did the first one.

Protected gamma

and they both died.

This is complete nonsense. Gamma wouldn't be targeted by her own team.

Do people even read the game?

Read Black's role please. The could only choose 1 of 2 options at night. Black is dead. Why would I say they are teamed?

You said Black protected Gamma. Gamma flipped scum. Gamma wasn't killed by scum. If Black did protect Gamma then where did the scum kill go? Therefore it's nonsense that Black protected Gamma.

[davesaz]

Yes, I do. Though the role card that Jingle posted is incorrect.

[davesaz]

Maybe the bsit scum causes sitter to die was a variant when I saw that before?

[davesaz]

There are a few fairly limited places where it's beneficial for town to lie. I don't think derailing a wagon on yourself is one of them.
Goons are vanilla.
Rolecops are often scum.
Given the above if you think Celebloki must be town for rolecopping Hu Tao and Hu Tao must be town for being vanilla and sorta kinda maybe scumreading Gamma, then you're forgetting a few facts.

I don't think they're both scum, and in fact it is possible they're both town. But neither one is lock.

[davesaz]

Naerys is exactly like other games where she was town, but I don't think I've seen her as scum so it's just a weak feeling.

[davesaz]

Fucking hell
I’m a gunsmith, stop this shit

VOTE: Hu Tao
A part of why I didn’t care for the claim was because of my role so now that it’s out there, I feel like we should go back there

Righteous theater?

[davesaz]

Liars are dangerous and should always be eliminated, but that's a minority view that probably won't prevail.

[davesaz]

Gamma's play totally makes sense as bussing / distancing a partner who looked like she was going down.

[davesaz]

It seems weird that this is possible, but on looking at why Black was killed it looks like despite having over 200 posts that she was so all over the place that it was low information.

[davesaz]

183, so almost 200 not over...

[davesaz]

I don't ever think anyone is obvtown, but yeah that's possible too.

[davesaz]

davesaz

Naerys - meta/gut on similarities to town games
Dunnstral - meta/gut difficult to explain, now seeing what was missing before
Guillotina - Strong dislike for the string of "associations" wallposts, but I saw a town indicator
ssbm_Kyouko - the Gamma meta dive could be an elaborate ruse but otherwise feels very solvy

TimmerRC - flashes of being inquisitive
Keyleth - possible that the innocence is an act but I doubt it

Random Nurse - threatening -> manipulative, in my way of thinking
Broccoli Quest 2 - I get a TMI vibe. Can't really point to anything specific without more flips
Celebloki - Role that is often scum, and scum-sided targeting decisions. Not scum with Hu Tao

Roden - Frozen slot
Elements - More POE than anything. Could be I'm biased to scumread over playstyle
Andresvmb - Would be bottom by a mile if I didn't give some credit for RL difficulty, though if I'm honest with myself the "not scumhunting" thing that I look for is probably less accurate than I think
Hu Tao - known liar, fake claims as scum a lot, possible distancing.

[davesaz]

I might consider seeing if Hu Tao has done anything town, but it won't be now as it's almost 1:30. I'll say that her overstating her importance in yesterday's events is not going to help with that.

[davesaz]

I harbor the same suspicions I had D1

If your problem with me is that I don't attack, congrats you figured out part of my personality.

[davesaz]

I very much dislike all the posts where someone is saying "x is spewed by gamma"
seems like a very good way to lose

I have been saying the same thing. Only bad scum make the kind of mistakes that spew people town. I don't think Gamma is bad scum.
Really skillful scum spew their partners town. That's what distancing is.

[davesaz]

@Naerys, I don't think playful means what you think it means.

It means that you tend to jump from a plate and spray people with soup

I don't think I've seen this particular trauma before. It's strangely specific.

[davesaz]

dave was saying that what I'm reading in Gamma's posts is her personality and not distinguishable

I still don't know if you were lucky or good. It is certainly not something that would come to me to look at.
In the moment, it felt like a simple tunnel, and I generally don't like tunnels.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Roden

[davesaz]

There is probably some irony in what I'm about to ask,depending on the answer, but... cansomeone define townslip for me, please? I actually tried googling it but found nothing. I'm asking because I could see it meaning either of "something only a townie would say" thus strongly suggesting that someone is town, or, "something someone would say to sound townie" which would then suggest that someone is NOT town.

I've seen this come up occasionally with my posts but I've struggled to know how to comment since I can't decide if I'm being suspected or supported, lol.

Those are the two senses that are usually used. A post where someone says something or asks a question that makes it appear that they don't / can't possibly know something that scum should know. The "what's a PT" question had that appearance, as scum would be in a PT and thus would know the answer. But you almost have to suspend belief to think that it's possible to play on this site and not know the answer so it looks too innocent to be innocent.

Scumslips are the opposite, someone saying something that looks like it was meant for private discussion or that reveals knowledge that they shouldn't logically have as town, implying the comment has to come from scum.

I tend not to give much thought to slips of either kind. The PT thing could be not knowing what the acronym means vs not knowing what a private topic is. Bizarre comments that look like part of another conversation might be coming from someone who starts typing just to collect their thoughts and then hits submit instead of doing browser back. While it's possible that slips are AI, I usually think there are much better ways of analyzing people than picking apart their possible silly questions or mouse slips.

[davesaz]

The important question is, are your mushrooms magic?

[davesaz]

Why would Cele out a VT claim as scum?

Confirming the rolecop is potentially good for scum independent of what the result is or who the result is on. We're conditioned to try to preserve TPRs, so anything that a scum player can do to look like a TPR is good up to the point there is another reason to scumread the player.

The irony is that's the exact same reason why fakeclaiming doc is doubly scummy if you look at it from the point of view of whether it helps you more if you're town or scum. Not getting yeeted might be an appealing reason to fakeclaim as town, but it makes so much more sense for scum to do it (to not get yeeted, plus the potential of drawing a CC or finding the doc from reactions) that you'll now be under a cloud.

[davesaz]

We're doing a good job of getting down to a couple days before running up a wagon. Unfortunately that's a bad thing.

[davesaz]

Votes since last VC
2098 ssbm_Kyouko v Roden
2162 davesaz v Roden

Unofficial VC
Roden 4 (E-4): Broccoli Quest 2, Dunnstral, ssbm_Kyouko, davesaz
Hu Tao 3 (E-5): Random Nurse, Guillotina, Roden,
Elements 3 (E-5): Hu Tao, Keyleth, Andresvmb
Dunnstral (E-8):
Broccoli Quest 2 (E-8):
Keyleth (E-8):
ssbm_Kyouko (E-8):
Celebloki (E-8):
TimmerRC (E-8):
Andresvmb (E-8):
Naerys (E-8):
davesaz (E-8):
Guillotina (E-8):
Random Nurse (E-8):

Not Voting: TimmerRC, Elements, Celebloki, Naerys,

It should be obvious that I'm willing to vote Hu Tao but I'll go ahead and say it to make it clear.

[davesaz]

I don't recommend a counter from the real doc, if there is one.

Me having previously identified the crumb posts.
I think I could have used that to say I know who the doc is and it isn't Roden. Whether it would be enough is unknown, and the gamestate is what it is.

[davesaz]

I'd suggest rolecopping Kyouko. When a miller tries to give instructions, do something else.

[davesaz]

Wouldn't mind if someone, Celebloki or otherwise, checked Enchant toNight. Keyleth claimed VT on D1

Gonna say now that I'm not following a miller when I do this.

[davesaz]

I saw doc crumbs too.
Role cop being killed either points to Miller or is meant to make us think that.

[davesaz]

Roden - Frozen slot

Nailed it!

[davesaz]

Key posts from Roden/gob/CSF slot. Hoping nested spoilers work now. Haven't really analyzed in depth, just gathering.

Spoiler: csf

I'm at page 11

Gamma Emerald - lean scum

Spoiler:

I claim miller

Same

jfc

Strange reaction

Gamma you've still got your rvs vote on me, why?

haven’t felt a need to move it
VOTE: KawaiiKame
They pinged me somewhat with how they unvoted kyouko, not strongly though

I feel like forgetting your vote is +scum and this reads a bit hedge-y

Random Nurse
Celebloki
Naerys-

For now my first impressions are that dave and both millers could be town.
Still too far from finding a scum, but its a start.

Was it just for the question he asked or was there more to it?

davesaz
Hu Tao - town

Spoiler: I townread all of these quotes

VT

I understand why people claim miller early on, but why throw out a VT claim on page 1? I'm coming to this site mostly from a background where claiming was against the rules, so I would love to hear how claiming this helps the town.

So scum will not target me and I can last till end game. I believe in myself to find scum as long as I'm alive long enough. Now I just need to be towny enough to not be voted out. I've eliminated half of the work.

I think Hu Tao was just joking with the VT claim

Nope. I'm VT

Timmer feels town so far

The "I'm terrible at D1" feels more like a townie trying to explain why he doesn't have many reads as opposed to Mafia worried about their optics

They seem curious but scum can also be curious so I'm not giving them that easy of a town read so far.

Elements is a champion baffler for sure.

I'm not inclined to vote for the millers. I think I agree with Gamma's take.

Not sure why but this post gives me scum pings. I wish I could tell you why

I belive Dunn and ssbm's claim. Unless the small chance they are scum together or scum informed of miller's in this game. Either way, I wouldn't want them today at the very least. If there are actual millers, there is likely a way to confirm that somehow regardless.

Broccoli Quest 2
Guillotina
Cat Scratch Fever
Keyleth
Dunnstral - I was inclined to believe the miller claim out of the gate but kind of hate his posting (sorry). I dunno
KawaiiKame - town
ssbm_Kyouko - town
TimmerRC - early posts spoilered below kinda pinged scum but then 111 was good

Spoiler:

VT

I understand why people claim miller early on, but why throw out a VT claim on page 1? I'm coming to this site mostly from a background where claiming was against the rules, so I would love to hear how claiming this helps the town.

It's been awhile, remind me why voting millers is the best option?

Elements - town for having zero filter and just livetweeting every thought she has into the void
Andresvmb
Black

Spoiler: gob

I am okay with myself gone...

Your predecessor claimed Miller btw, can you confirm?

Yea I can confirm. Me and Kyouko are the millers.

Im the mafia guys

Dunnstral is mafia

Spoiler: Roden

This slot is fucked from the replacements and I don't want to try hard here, especially since there was really shitty angle shooting about the reasons the previous player in my slot replaced out before I could even get a footing in this game.


I'm a Doctor, I have a modifier that's anti-town to claim and you'll see why when I get killed. That's why I'm hard pushing Hu Tao, and I would've done so even if the Rolecop hadn't checked her.

[davesaz]

I don't think it's a good idea to discuss the identity of the doctor or even whether there is a doctor or not, as that can only help scum.

Moving on, I hated Keyleth's TR of CSF's post. The fact that CSF flipped scum makes me hate it even more TBH.

VOTE: Key- Enchant

STOP PEDITING ME

Guessing the important stuff came up while you were drafting this?

[davesaz]

I'm interested in thoughts on goon vs PR split for the scumteam.

[davesaz]

I would like to see Enchant post.

[davesaz]

I don't think 6 have claimed VT. I know of two VT claims (Hu Tao and Enchant slot). Maybe put 4 ?? unless there are more VT claims I didn't notice in which case adjust?

[davesaz]

No on the speedlim.

[davesaz]

I'd prefer that Broccoli claims earlier. Much earlier. If there is anyone in the presumed town I have as low trust, Broccoli would be it.

[davesaz]

Eh, Broccoli might not be the least trusted, I forgot RN is in the game.

[davesaz]

If mafia have a goon and a PR, I suggest we attempt to get the PR first. I'll settle for the goon if we don't have a good suspect for the PR.

I want Broccoli or Nurse to claim before me, and I want reactions to that request.

[davesaz]

A watcher or tracker would also work for the traffic analyst you're proposing.

[davesaz]

If mafia have a goon and a PR, I suggest we attempt to get the PR first. I'll settle for the goon if we don't have a good suspect for the PR.

I want Broccoli or Nurse to claim before me, and I want reactions to that request.

sure, you seem to be softing you have something important to reveal about one or the other so they should both claim before you

That would be overstating it. It's a trust thing -- Broccoli seems manipulative to me, and I have lingering doubts about Nurse.

[davesaz]

I believe Naerys' claim.

Don't go away, someone claimed the FN you said you received so we need to know if it's right.

[davesaz]

heh, there was another page, I thought I was looking at the tail of the thread

[davesaz]

I don't see any way Guillotina is scum and reacts to Hu Tao's doc claim that way.
Also reminder that I had seen the crumb and said right off that the real doc should not CC.

[davesaz]

What the fuck you all talking about

Big delay showing up, interesting...

[davesaz]

Honestly if half the playerlist already claimed, I would like a full massclaim

Order:

Timmer
Andres
davesaz
Kyouko (confirm whether just miller or additional abilities)
Dunn (same as kyo)
Nurse
Broccoli



Already claimed:
Enchant - VT
Elements - VT
Hu Tao - VT
Guillo - 2 Shot indecisive doctor
Naerys - 1 shot FN

Don't remember what Timmer said, maybe vanilla?
Andres alternating Messenger/FN (I think odd/even respectively?) with FN confirmed by Dunn

Are we going to do this? I would like an explicit yes or no on my request for you to go first.

[davesaz]

I was under the impression your predecessor had claimed that.

[davesaz]

Are you saying you have some other role?

[davesaz]

Thanks Broccoli.

If Enchant is scum then the other scum already knows this, and if not then it's pretty useless aside from giving scum an impossible POE.
I'm a Town Neighborizer. I neighborized Enchant, hoping for good side discussion. Basically nothing said in the hood. Combined with their posting today I think we have a scum lim coming, as I would have expected town!Enchant to talk my ears off.

My n1 target of Dunn didn't work. I know why not, and that info doesn't help town right now (it's something useless we basically already know that was confirmed). Keeping it quiet could be crucial for tomorrow or it could be inconsequential, so I'd like to play the odds and hope for crucial. If scum decide to kill me over a conf (yeah right but jic) then at least you'll be able to interpret that result.

I'd kinda like to look for a scum PR instead of the goon that I think Enchant would flip, but it's almost torture to not lim at this point. I have no idea of the count and want to allow for coordination if desired, but consider this intent.

[davesaz]

I said I do know why Dunn failed. Simple is the modifier.

[davesaz]

So the plan needs to be RN bodyguards me, I try to bring a VT claim into the hood. If it doesn't succeed we have a

guilty

liar who's probably guilty. If I die then RN's role is probably a lie, though another blocking role can't be ruled out on the mafia side.

[davesaz]

Why there's even theory that mafia can't contain two goons.

That's fallacy i also followed in that multiball shit where all mafia was goons, and i build idiotic theories than teams must be 2PR 1G.

When you didn't talk for hours, expecting two goons was the reason I was ready to vote you.
I don't remember who is pushing hardest on the theory there should be all mafia PRs left.
The alien is really strong, landing on it with a sitter was an enormous stroke of luck, and some of the town roles are weakened by modifiers making them less than full roles.

[davesaz]

Why there's even theory that mafia can't contain two goons.

That's fallacy i also followed in that multiball shit where all mafia was goons, and i build idiotic theories than teams must be 2PR 1G.

Look how many pr there are. No way there is another goon

This makes me want to SR you again.

[davesaz]

I think using the bodyguard makes more sense in case I find a liar. Maybe save the sacrifice vig attempt for when no investigative to protect.

[davesaz]

Im thinking scum pr in the vt claims.

[davesaz]

So if I target Hu Tao and she is Scum, but Mafia target me for the NK, would there still be only one NK and the risk of Hu Tao looking cleared?

This would be a mod question on resolution order. The way I remember it is multiple kill abilities resolve simultaneously but it's been more than a year since I modded a game and you're better off knowing how this mod does it.

[davesaz]

Nurse and Broccoli can you hammer elements so we can end day

Does it matter to you who it is?

[davesaz]

You're leaving out a VT claim, though it's understandable that you would.

[davesaz]

You're leaving out a VT claim, though it's understandable that you would.

Is this in reference to Broccoli?

In reply to and in reference to.

[davesaz]

I'm going to run through the possible combinations myself to see whether claiming it matters.

For the case where the information hurts, suppose RN says who he's targeting, the target lives, but the target is scum and something else interferes with the disloyal vig. We get an incorrect clear.
This 2nd case also applies if RN survives and reveals the target as clear tomorrow.
The scum target surviving case would rely on scum having a 2nd way to interfere with actions. That might still be plausible in a game which seems to have multiples, but how probable is it?
For completeness, there could be an unclaimed town role who can interfere but that would be throwing at this point so we can ignore it.

If there isn't a source of interference (the FAR more likely case) AND the resolution is kills are equal, a target on scum yields a vig whether RN is killed or not. In this case knowing who the target is does not help at all, we see it in the night results.

If RN's target is known, lives, and RN dies we get a clear.
If RN's target is unknown, lives, and RN dies we don't get information and the missing information is a clear. This looks like the only likely case where not revealing the target ahead of time matters.

Now, is Kyouko scum trying to deny town information, or just wrong? I lean toward wrong not scum on overall play, but the dividing line between pushy town and manipulative is very thin.

[davesaz]

Reminder that having me clear and preserving my result yields 2 information. That's worse than successfully vigging scum, and better than getting a clear and losing my information.

[davesaz]

I saw doc crumbs too.
Role cop being killed either points to Miller or is meant to make us think that.

[davesaz]

Broccoli is simple.

[davesaz]

Separate neighborhoods. I've seen it go either way in the past so not a huge surprise.

[davesaz]

And apparently there's a second FN too and that should remain a secret.

Apparently you missed that second FN was actually claimed and confirmed.

[davesaz]

I'm expecting one each in the VT and PR claims, and likely reversed where the claimed VT is the PR while the claimed PR is goon.

[davesaz]

No message.

[davesaz]

Has everyone stated they didn't receive a message?
Tinfoil says the message went to scum and they're denying getting it to make it seem like they have a roleblocker.
I have thoughts about what that also means.

I'll think about the hurt tag thing.

[davesaz]

If Andres didn't send mail because forgot, i choke from laugh.

Technically that's not an explicit confirmation that you didn't get a message. I know people who have to lie by omission because personality.

[davesaz]

The lim today is Trimmer, thank you.

Can we get an explicit yes or no on receiving a message please?

[davesaz]

I may slip up from time to time confusing similar roles like babysitter / bodyguard (which was the source of thinking RN's target would die if scum) but given complete and accurate information solving logic puzzles is very much like my day job. (figuring out how a byte in memory got blasted by an unrelated program )

[davesaz]

Additional mechanical things we know (provided you believe my results) are that Broccoli and Enchant are simple (vanilla town or goon) and Dunnstral is complex (not vanilla/goon).
It really would have been helpful if Andres had given his planned target, or at least a set of 2-3 possible message recipients, but no use complaining about it.

The Hu Tao clear depends on RN not being scum fakeclaiming that role (or town with a different role fakeclaiming which is something I can't completely ignore).

[davesaz]

Kyouko wanting to focus on more obscure roles (traffic analyst, backup alien) bothers me, though straight UB bothers me less so if she's meaning backup who became alien I suppose that's fine.
RB, rolestop seem more plausible.

[davesaz]

CSF Scumread Gamma (we know they're both Scum).

We already know Celebloki is Town, and from my standpoint I'm Town.

I'm inclined to believe CSF would at least Scumread one member and Townread another member.

In #536 she marked Hu Tao, Kawaii (dead Town), SSBM, and Elements as Town.

Hu Tao, SSBM, Elements...

Part of me wants to think CSF would put one of each team member in Town, Scum, and Null territory.

Gamma was already in Scum territory for CSF. For Town it could be HT/SSBM/Elements. Null, one of the rest.

CSF questioning Guillotina in #547 could be an attempt to distance.

I can't tell if this comes from a place of needing one of HT/SSBM to be scum, if it comes from having scumreads there and looking for evidence, or if it's a new approach that just happens to match previously posted scumreads. Yeah, I know this doesn't say what I think, because I don't know what to think. I'm giving all the possibilities for the purpose of possible further discussion.

[davesaz]

Oh, in that last post I was going to point out that RN apparently forgot that Elements flipped town.

[davesaz]

That would be RN, Enchant (Keyleth), Jackson (Timmer) right?

[davesaz]

My assumption about the neighborhood mechanics is that it's different hoods to avoid cross confirmation, and I kinda expect the mod to either not answer or say he can't answer.

[davesaz]

I can only confirm that what's happening matches what my role PM says, which says to me it's what the mod designed.
Samples and standard roles are fine reference material but the role you get from the mod is what actually happens, whether that conforms to wiki or not.

[davesaz]

If you want to complain about the role not matching the wiki, you'll need to take that up with the mod.
This is

not

the first game I've been in that didn't create the thread until there was a successful target, nor is it the first game that created a different thread for each neighbor.

[davesaz]

There was no neighborhood to start, and what is actually happening matches what the role PM says, which is very different from what the wiki says.

[davesaz]

Doesn't matter what an old game review says, it's not

this game

.

The threads are being created at game start. I'm not allowed to post an image of my bookmarks page as that would be the spirit of revealing mod comms, but 1st one was created on 12/18 and the other was created on 12/28. It isn't even a matter of being added to a pre-existing thread.

No, I'm not really posting anything in the neighborhoods. I hate neighborhoods so it's a cruel irony that I caught this role which is mostly useless on top of everything else due to not even being able to use it to out PR results without saying who the PR is.

[davesaz]

Dunnstral is not doing the things that usually cause me to incorrectly scum read him. I don't have enough data to know if inverting the meta is the right thing to do but it's a mild scumlean.

Someone asked me about this post. I would need to re-look at Dunnstral to find out if the reverse meta bit ended up being relevant.

[davesaz]

It's important to note that the other player I was trying to use that reverse meta thing on was Gamma, and it didn't work out in this game.

[davesaz]

davesaz, do you remember 4 hours ago when you made this post?

Is there uh, anything I can do to help dave?

Quote things and say what you think about them would be a good start. More than just like or don't like. For me to evaluate your alignment (or anyone's) I need to know if what you say makes sense given the events, and that's pretty well impossible without a fair amount of because clauses.

In light of this post, do you think it is fair to say that you are not following your own standards for others as written above?

I made a post about you. I didn't elaborate because I didn't want to seem to be offensive, but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.
I had a similar aha moment in a recent game about someone else who happens to be in this game, and flipping that person's meta turned out to be spot on as a scumtell, at least in that game.
So I'm giving it a go here to see if there's anything to it.

davesaz can you elaborate on your read of dunn here?

To tie up this thread, what I was looking at back then is probably irrelevant in the current gamestate.
Among the miller claims I think Dunnstral is more towny and ssbm_Kyouko is more likely scum. It's possible they're both town.

[davesaz]

Can we like, NOT vote Enchant? They are third obvtown slot after Nurse and HT.

I feel like Enchant is likely scum and pred was obv scum. Not a clue where you'd get obv town.

[davesaz]

Lock town: Naerys, Enchant

Almost lock town: Hu Tao, Guillo, Nurse

I can't agree on Enchant, and you won't be surprised that not listing me here draws considerable ire.

[davesaz]

I think it's one scum in RN/Guillo, and one in Enchant (Key)/JV (Timmer).

Naerys and myself are the only people I don't suspect in some way.

Hu Tao's lie is not something I'm ever going to forget
Brocolli gets some scum equity as a pushy and somewhat manipulative slot IMO who is still around

One of the millers is a distinct possibility. Totally mixed feelings on Kyouko, correctness on mech isn't really AI and there are flashes of feeling like there is an agenda.
Dunnstral's role is confirmed, mafia miller is basically the only way he can be scum and he'd be last in POE.

[davesaz]

One of those sets is PRs that can't be / haven't been confirmed. The other set is claimed vanillas with predecessors who couldn't find a read if it was on a table in front of them.

As for whether you'd claim something convoluted or not as scum, I really don't know. One of the hallmarks of skilled scum is doing things people think they wouldn't do.

[davesaz]

Don't think I've seen you as scum since I came back?

[davesaz]

Given JV's location and the time of day, I interpreted zzz as literally bedtime.

[davesaz]

Hu Tao, you should learn from Flavor. If you think JV is town but want to get Guillo, just vote out JV today, show me that I was wrong, and I will 100% vote Guillo with you tomorrow.

I think this is how scum Flavor gets mislims.

[davesaz]

Simple neighborizer. I can detect lies by finding if a claimed PR is vanilla, and vice versa.

[davesaz]

The vanilla testing as a PR side of things is iffy if there is another blocking type role. The PR testing as vanilla by being neighborized is 100% though they can try to wiggle out of it by denying the hood exists.