Mini Normal 2324: Fake Fantasy Facts | Postgame

[Prince of Paterson]

Town:

Naerys

Townreads:

Gypyx

Townleans:

Laplacian
Upwards

I'm not voting any of those right now.

Alianna I found suspicious early for reasons that others have already talked about. Her posts seemed too manufactured and like she was forcing herself to generate content. Particularly 42, the thought process on display doesn't feel naturally developed, so it reads as performative. She disappeared so it's hard to feel confident in a read here.

Hu Tao and lucca are players that I'm conflicted on. For most of my time reading I thought Hu Tao was scum, but the way her reads developed over time made me start to doubt that, because she may just be on the right track. lucca I liked early and has what feels like a good process to me but I don't like the results that he ends up at, and some of them have felt like they may have an agenda. My gut feeling right now is that one of these two is mafia. I'll elaborate more on why if I find the read persists.

Delta and Claptastic are who I found to be most suspicious but I don't believe they're scum together. I haven't read any the replacement's posts yet, but Claptastic's aggressive posturing felt like it was coming from an informed place to me, especially surrounding the Margot wagon and pushing people onto Gamma. I didn't like Delta's readlist in 264, and 370 didn't feel like the town variety of defensiveness.

I want to review a bit more before deciding where I'd like to look first for today. I don't have one scumread that stands out above the rest, and my pool is too wide, so I'd like to try to narrow it.

[Prince of Paterson]

I like Randy's re-evaluation on Laplacian. I felt initially that she came in with an agenda of getting on the side of town leaders and orienting herself towards pushing out the LHF, because a lot of the conclusions seemed forced, but it seems like she's recognized that there isn't support for her previous level of confidence.

That could still come from skilled mafia who wants to gain points for looking thoughtful, but I like the development.

I also feel a little better about Delta, something about her most recent posts come off as uninformed.

Gypyx, I can answer your question about Upwards in a bit.

[Prince of Paterson]

Hey Lucca you still wanna vote out Upwards or like, what are we doing, strongly considering making a switch onto lapla, especially given how he kind of looks like he's giving up? That fits the mental trajectory i would expect from a scumteam who's in the rough of things

I don't see this at all, for what it's worth.

[Prince of Paterson]

Enchant was also on Gamma.

[Prince of Paterson]

The way that Upwards is forming his reads and finding things to talk about reads far more like new town player struggling to find his footing in the game than new scum player trying to blend in or manufacture stances.

Some examples that stand out to me:
1) The focus on the situation surrounding Gamma nearing E-1 (Delta said she'd unvote if E-1, and Hu Tao said they'd hammer if E-1). He made several posts about this (462, 464, 466, 484, 532, 539, and there's a clear tone of frustration that nobody else finds this as compelling as he does. I don't think that tends to come from mafia. He wants people to listen to him because he thinks he's found something interesting.

2) Similarly, a bit earlier, his engagement with Gamma in 306, 333, and 356. Again, his point is a little off the wall, bringing up how it doesn't make sense to him that Gamma could see it beneficial to die early as scum. And again, there's some frustration at not having his point understood.

Together, these aren't how scum, particularly new scum, approach the game. The points are proactively made, show original and unique thought, and there's a distinct lack of self-consciousness: when faced with others disagreeing with or not understanding his point, he doubles down to try to make it understood, because it's something that he genuinely feels and is interested in, and he's frustrated that it isn't gaining traction. New scum are much more likely to fold on a point or follow the lead of others.

The best point for Upwards being scum is that Margot's read on him in 373 is awkwardly defensive while still having him at the bottom of her null reads. I agree that is a read that sounds partnered.

I don't think that lucca's point about Upwards' vote being the one to turn Gamma into a real counterwagon to Margot is very meaningful. It was page 12, there was always going to be another wagon that happened at some point. Being the 3rd vote on Gamma doesn't make him significantly more likely to be scum. Nor does lack of talking about Margot. Scum are aware that they partner is being run up and are self-conscious about how they appear in relation to it. If you want a better example of what that may look like, read Claptastik's ISO.

[Prince of Paterson]

Point number 1 is complete NONSENSE. The way you describe the posts you linked I would expect to find that Uppercutwards was fighting against the Gamma lim given the tone of FRUSTRATION you say CLEARLY exists. He does not look frustrated by the situation AT ALL. He is in fact, feeling quite JUSTIFIED in throwing Gamma from the ring. He emphasizes that HE will ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY and he shades Hu Tao and Delta Wave alike, casting doubt upon which of them would be responsible if Gamma were E-1ed. If he truly cared, he would have FOUGHT to get to the bottom of this. INSTEAD, he spends all of the posts you linked having a meaningless back-and-forth with my brother THE CLAPPENING, wherein he mainly discusses THEORY and occasionally mentions Gamma. You missed the mark by SO FAR in your tiny mafia "analysis", the only conclusion can be you are protecting your tiny mafia friend Uppercutwards.

This response doesn't have anything to do with the point I was making.

[Prince of Paterson]

I don't think Enchant is always unreadable. Their current behavior is more likely to be scum.

[Prince of Paterson]

This is a very lazy wagon. It doesn't feel like anyone is trying to sort Upwards.

[Prince of Paterson]

Have you played with Enchant before?

I have two completed games with Enchant, one where they were town, and one where they were scum. As town they were measurably more engaged with the game and had clear thoughts and opinions. As scum they barely did anything.

[Prince of Paterson]

This is a very lazy wagon. It doesn't feel like anyone is trying to sort Upwards.

Who do you think is scum?

Nothing the Enchant slot has done has made me consider that they might be town. I'm not sure on a possible second, the only townread I'm confident in is Gypyx, and I don't think it's Lapacian.

[Prince of Paterson]

Meanwhile, pop, show your work.

The difference between these ISOs is very evident. It doesn't take long to look through.

viewtopic.php?t=89682&user_select%5B%5D=35064

viewtopic.php?p=13587857&f=56&t=90204&u ... B%5D=35064

[Prince of Paterson]

Why are you declaring intent to hammer with a week left in the day phase when you were hesitant to have Gamma on E-1 at the end of the previous day?

[Prince of Paterson]

VOTE: Enchant

[Prince of Paterson]

but i feel like they don't make much sense as a mafia member in terms of the game event so i'm holding on to it

Please, can you elaborate on why you feel this?

[Prince of Paterson]

Why are you declaring intent to hammer with a week left in the day phase when you were hesitant to have Gamma on E-1 at the end of the previous day?

Wtf are you talking about. I was the E-1 vote. How was I hesitant?

My reference was to this:

VOTE: Gamma, but I would unvote if Gamma got to E-1. I still want to get more information out of Alianna's replacement and to get some more activity in general going from people who are lower in the post counts. I'd also like Zeb to explain his vote, which seemed to come out of nowhere, and which made me think some things that I'll share after he explains.

It's a markedly different mentality and I was wondering what was the cause for the difference.

[Prince of Paterson]

but i feel like they don't make much sense as a mafia member in terms of the game event so i'm holding on to it

Please, can you elaborate on why you feel this?

Gotta admit, i'm working a bit off of my memory of my thoughts here but basically given the small level of chaos we have / her (lack of) interactions with the margot wagon she basically hasn't acted with a scum agenda, which could mean deepscum but most likely town

They had Margot as a suspect for most of day 1 but never really pressured or questioned there, and only joined the wagon briefly between 313 and 347. I think that pattern of action is if anything more indicative of a possible scum agenda.

Similarly, the very early threatening to hammer Margot in 170 seems more likely to serve a scum purpose (scare people into unvoting the wagon while looking like you were willing to vote scum) than a town purpose. It's a strange post to make if you're unaware of Margot's alignment, but it makes sense for someone who knows Margot is scum.

If Enchant is scum, Hu Tao also has served scum agenda by saying that we should "find the scum on gamma" by voting out Delta or Upwards (971), while conveniently giving Enchant a pass despite Enchant also being on gamma (900).

[Prince of Paterson]

for the early hammering, that's just how hu tao plays it seems, even then, they made the same threat around Gamma wagon, even if they didn't actually go through with it

I don't think it is. I searched their past games and the only time they've done something similar is here, where they were encouraging people to hammer a strong scumread they had. The other times they've encouraged hammers are much later in games. In this game, they weren't pushing Margot at all, so it's a very unusual. If they're scum, they most likely said the same about Gamma in order to make it look like a playstyle quirk.

I mean, it *is* a good reason to give enchant a pass on that no? This is the most devoid of meaning vote there is out there, maybe sliiiightly +scum since i've found it's a bit harder as mafia to switch your vote around so it might've been easier for scum!alianna to just leave it as is

I don't think Alianna's vote is suspicious. I think it's suspicious to create a narrative that there has to be a scum on gamma and then limit the pool of who that scum could be. There's no particular reason that there should be 1 scum on Gamma. There could be 2 or 0. And 820 states that her reads include Alianna/Enchant as possible scum on Gamma, but she decides to exclude them from the pool she's pushing. That doesn't feel natural. There's no reason for town to draw arbitrary lines and boxes and only consider pushes within those. If there's someone who looks like scum, push them.

[Prince of Paterson]

Why are you declaring intent to hammer with a week left in the day phase when you were hesitant to have Gamma on E-1 at the end of the previous day?

Wtf are you talking about. I was the E-1 vote. How was I hesitant?

My reference was to this:

VOTE: Gamma, but I would unvote if Gamma got to E-1. I still want to get more information out of Alianna's replacement and to get some more activity in general going from people who are lower in the post counts. I'd also like Zeb to explain his vote, which seemed to come out of nowhere, and which made me think some things that I'll share after he explains.

It's a markedly different mentality and I was wondering what was the cause for the difference.

What the fuck are you talking about?

1. Post 445 is not "the end of the day" as you claimed in the first quoted post. It was 250 posts prior to the end of the day, which ended prematurely because GE unexpectedly self-hammered.

2. At the time of Post 445, we were still in D1 and Alianna just replaced. Also, I was waiting on more information from Zeb. Plus, there was still a lot of inactivity going around.

3. Are you going to do this every time? "You didn't want to quickhammer on D1 so how come you want to eliminate someone in D2 and beyond????"

I just don't know if you're trying to wind me up or if you're just trying to come up with some kind of argument but the reality is that D2 (and beyond) are different from D1. We have a lot more information, a lot more activity, and flips to look at in D2+. So yeah I'm against a D1 quickhammer.

Relax. I wasn't saying you were suspicious for the difference, I was asking why there was a difference. Thank you for the explanation.

I think that ending this day at the time you suggested is significantly more premature, so I didn't understand why you were fine with it.

[Prince of Paterson]

There were at least 5 town votes on Gamma. 5 town players found Gamma to be suspicious. More than that, in fact, because there were additional players who supported the wagon but didn't end up actually being among the people voting it. It's foolish to believe that 7 votes couldn't have happened without scum influence.

Additionally, if you actually read how the day developed, the one player who did the most to influence the wagon and push people towards Gamma over Margot is Claptastik, who is also excluded from Hu Tao's pool. If you believe that scum influenced the game onto Gamma, then that should be the first place you look.

To be clear, I think it would be surprising if all 7 votes on Gamma were town. My point is that you're drawing lines that are fairly arbitrary and not based on what actually happened in the game, and I believe it's limiting your perspective.

[Prince of Paterson]

I think if these are both town wagons then scum is probably someone like lucca who is disengaged with the game.

[Prince of Paterson]

VOTE: lucca

[Prince of Paterson]

I'm continuing to lean more town on Delta.

[Prince of Paterson]

Clap is town that scum are propping up as an eventual fall person.

Who do you think are the scum that are doing this?

[Prince of Paterson]

I don't think Delta has much control over the gamestate. Gypyx, Hu Tao, and lucca are what I would say are the game-directing voices.

[Prince of Paterson]

I don't think Delta has much control over the gamestate. Gypyx, Hu Tao, and lucca are what I would say are the game-directing voices.

How is lucca game directing when the slot was prodded bcz of inactivity

I'm talking about over the course of the game. Right now, I agree, he's absent. I find the drop off in engagement suspicious. That's part of why I voted.

[Prince of Paterson]

VOTE: Comical

[Prince of Paterson]

Cute

[Prince of Paterson]

Is it working?

[Prince of Paterson]

I was planning to answer your questions later, I thought it would be more useful to engage with Comical at the moment.

[Prince of Paterson]

Reasonably. I think you're sortable.

[Prince of Paterson]

How confident are you on your Enchant read?

I don't care about your claim.

[Prince of Paterson]

Now, you could make the argument im so next level i could be doing this for some Strat, not opposed to that idea.

I’m not, but that would be a solid case i could respect

Obviously you're doing it as a strat. What matters is what you get out of it.

[Prince of Paterson]

Don't ask me, you're the best scum player to ever grace this site.

[Prince of Paterson]

It's far too high level for me to comprehend.

[Prince of Paterson]

I would like to know where your head is actually at, without the act. You think Lap is guaranteed scum? Mostly off the vote timings?

[Prince of Paterson]

I asked for without the act.

[Prince of Paterson]

I agree with Delta seeming genuine but I think your analysis is fairly weak. I could be wrong on Lap but I don't really think so. I don't think scum needed to push Gamma.

If you're town you should post less.

[Prince of Paterson]

I don't think anyone should claim further yet.

[Prince of Paterson]

If anyone does, it should be Comical fullclaiming, if he decides he wants to stick with it.

[Prince of Paterson]

i think you're being overly agressive in shutting down the possibility of there being 2 protectives anyways Comical

He is very aware that 2 protectives are possible.

[Prince of Paterson]

Why

[Prince of Paterson]

If you're a PR and you CC someone who has only softclaimed, don't give them a fullclaim for them to tailor their own claim around

[Prince of Paterson]

Comical, commit to a hardclaim so we can lim you if you get Lap flipped and he's town, or if you're town admit that your claim is fake and we can just play normally.

[Prince of Paterson]

Alright, we elim Comical then.

[Prince of Paterson]

It's sorted already. Comical outed.

[Prince of Paterson]

Next he's going to spam the thread and make it impossible to play.

[Prince of Paterson]

Playstyle is more enhanced and whimsical on this account, more loosey goosey like i've had a little bit too much scotch

Perhaps a bit too loosey goosey

[Prince of Paterson]

The only way we're flipping Lap is if you flip town Doctor.

[Prince of Paterson]

If you're town I know you understand why that has to be the case. You can still retract if you want to try a different path.

[Prince of Paterson]

The part that sticks with me is that this strategy would be completely suicidal for Scum!Comical.

Too much scotch.

[Prince of Paterson]

The part that sticks with me is that this strategy would be completely suicidal for Scum!Comical.

Too much scotch.

With one scum down it's hard to think that scum would suicide bomb themselves like this. That's what I can't get over.

If he's scum then he went for too much of a gambit and ended up in a corner, and is just overconfident and thinks he can talk his way out of it.

If he's town then he's fakeclaiming because he does scumread Lap and is also going for too much of a gambit, and is overconfident and thinks he can talk his way out of it.

Either way, if Lap flips town, tomorrow he will say "Oops, sorry, I fakeclaimed to push out a scumread, but I'm still town and here's who we should push next:". And the worst part is that people will listen. There's not any way to tell whether he's doing that as town or as scum.

That's why we have to lim him today. If he's at E-1 and is town and still decides not to retract his claim, then that's on him. If he gets flipped and he's actually somehow a Doctor, then Lap is caught scum and we got a 1 for 1 while covering ourselves from every other possible scenario. More likely I think is that he just flips scum.

[Prince of Paterson]

you think i fake claim protective as town and let me good buddy Naerys die with a town gambit?

No, I think you're scum.

[Prince of Paterson]

I can't even talk this group into limming Lap, and you think i could talk em into not limming me in that scenario.

thanks

I think that you think you could.

[Prince of Paterson]

Alright, I don't think this is helpful anymore, I'm done responding for now. I've already engaged a lot more than I typically like to. My vote isn't moving.

[Prince of Paterson]

My problem is that aside from this whole counter-claim debacle I can't read Lap or Comical as scum. But the unavoidable conclusion is that one has to be. If Comical is scum then they are basically throwing the game, so I'm going with that.

VOTE: Laplacian

I don't care much anymore who we eliminate, as long as Comical dies if Lap is town, but why is it throwing for Comical and not for Lap? Lap CC'd eagerly and earlier than he should have. He didn't need to lock himself into that 1v1 and guarantee his death if he's scum.

[Prince of Paterson]

Having fewer vote options doesn't matter if we're resolving the 1v1.

[Prince of Paterson]

Then they tried to claim doctor to counter my protective claim, and then tried to weasel the possibility of there being 2 doctors in the game so they don’t look bad after i flipped and didn’t have to directly 1v1.

They got caught out with the duplicate rule in Simple games.

I doubt anyone cares at this point, but this isn't true, and Comical knows that he's twisting things here. Notice how he doesn't quote anything, he just repeats the narrative that he set until people start to believe it or just get tired of arguing with him.

Here's Laplacian's posts that Comical is referring to:

I've been deliberating if this is a good idea or not all day. The only way I see Conical making sense as scum is to try to bait out invests and protectives, and I think town comes out even with a goon for 2 pr trade. I cc protective, doc with some restrictions. Was on Gypyx last night.

Conical, does your role have any restrictions?

Lapia, would you be willing to elaborate on your restrictions?

I think there's a chance for you both to be town if these restrictions prevent you from targeting each other in some way

1-shot strongman against a single protective is also maybe a bit overkill actually

Fuck it, radical honesty time. 3 shot doc.

Dragon has run a 2 doc game before, so it's not totally out of the question. 100% another scum role though if we have 2 PRs, one with no restrictions.

Conical, did you want to full claim?

In that post, he clearly states that if the other protective doesn't have any restrictions, it's 100% a scum role. Comical had been dodging the hardclaim at the time this post was made. At no point did Laplacian propose that his role could be compatible with Comical's role, nor did he get "caught out" by there being no duplicate roles.

[Prince of Paterson]

Hu Tao's response to this situation is suspect to me.

[Prince of Paterson]

The post that you quoted, which I also quoted, is evidence for my point, not yours. I'm not sure if you read it, but it is not saying what you're claiming it says.

[Prince of Paterson]

He said in that post that if you are an ungated doctor, then your roles are incompatible and one of you is scum.

At that point you hadn't claimed ungated doctor. You could have been a 1 shot bodyguard or something, which is a protective, but doesn't conflict.

[Prince of Paterson]

Macho or something, whatever, doesn't matter.

[Prince of Paterson]

I said earlier that Hu Tao's approach was suspect because she should have the same perspective as I did, which is having a townread on Lap and also knowing that Comical's claim was fake.

I think she too easily discounted the possibility of Comical being scum. If Comical is town, Hu Tao is likely scum who played to pocket Comical, which would have been fairly easy to do.

[Prince of Paterson]

Delta still feels uninformed in their approach to me. Gypyx has seemed like town to me but I agree that the slip is pretty suspect. There's a possible town explanation, but it's still very questionable.

[Prince of Paterson]

I know he does. But you should know that he could be making this kind of play as scum as well.

[Prince of Paterson]

Comical is town I agree.

Problem is I also think lap is town. So this doesn't make sense to me.

If it was any slots but these 2 I wouldn't be struggling so much.

Why did you make these posts? You weren't struggling.

[Prince of Paterson]

My point is that we both knew the claim was 100% fake, either Comical town fakeclaiming or Comical scum. My issue is that you fully treated him as town and didn't question it, when from an uninformed perspective you should be capable of seeing that his play here accomplishes scum goals far more than it does town goals.

[Prince of Paterson]

My point is that we both knew the claim was 100% fake, either Comical town fakeclaiming or Comical scum. My issue is that you fully treated him as town and didn't question it, when from an uninformed perspective you should be capable of seeing that his play here accomplishes scum goals far more than it does town goals.

As scum it was a risky play for a slot that was heavily Town read, so neither made sense as scum

But you knew that they weren't in a 1v1 because Comical was fakeclaiming.

[Prince of Paterson]

Quoted the wrong post, that was supposed to be in response to 1801.

[Prince of Paterson]

So... why did you say you were struggling to resolve the 1v1?

[Prince of Paterson]

We could always just policy elim Comical for game health, if you still think he's town.

[Prince of Paterson]

@POP can you explain to me what do you see on Delta's posts that you keep calling her uninformed?

It feels like the mindset she displays in her posts is based on exactly what she sees in front of her in the thread and nothing more. It doesn't seem like she has an agenda, and her posts in the last few days feel like she's trying to figure things out.

I also think it's pretty suspect that Comical noticed and identified this earlier, but now that it's convenient to him, he's decided to push her as scum.

I don't think scum makes 1339, for example.

[Prince of Paterson]

UNVOTE:

Yeah, Enchant & Comical came out of this mess looking good. Definitely wasn't the most efficient and sanity-maintaining way to do it, but it got us there.

I think Delta looks worse, but she was already hanging out on my scumlist so I've got some bias there.

PoP seemed legit, but I reallllly don't like 1818.

It was tongue in cheek asking for votes, because I think Comical is scum. Although I do also happen to think that even if he's town, we have a higher chance of winning with him dead.

[Prince of Paterson]

Happy to swerve to Gypyx or Upward if someone wants to make the effort to swing votes over there, maybe PoP or Lucca with a decent case. Just don't have energy atm to do it myself

I'd be down with Upwards. I still don't know what you meant by Gypyx made a slip.

I assumed Comical was going to talk about it because he pointed it out, but the fact that he hasn't makes me doubt that it was important to him, which therefore makes me doubt that solving the game and finding out who is mafia is important to him. Which is evident already by how much priority he places on warping the game around himself over actually doing useful town things, but still.

1748 on the surface is a relatively standard perspective slip. I may be tunneled in my townread to not see it as particularly damning, but I do think it's understandable for town to make that post. Still, it is saying that scum knew there wasn't scum in Comical/Lap, and so therefore the gambit was useless. Which is an excellent point if it's true. The problem is that she shouldn't know whether it's true or not, and she states it as if she does.

[Prince of Paterson]

I think Lucca is probably town now

[Prince of Paterson]

I can vote at deadline to ensure we elim.

A no elim is still bad because we have a possibility of getting a doc save, which gains us a day.

[Prince of Paterson]

Votecount 2.04

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2024-01-22 03:32:58).
Combined mod ISO.

Votecount

Upwards (3):

Gypyx, Mucho Man Randy Passion, Hu Tao

Prince of Paterson (1):

DeltaWave

Mucho Man Randy Passion (1):

Enchant

Enchant (1):

Laplacian

Not Voting (4):

Upwards, Naerys, lucca261, Prince of Paterson

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to throw someone to the lions.

Flavor

Elf Fact #4:

While Sun Elves are awake during the day and worship the sun, and Moon Eleves are awake during the night and worship the moon, Star Elves are constantly half-awake and are pretty crazy. They claim there are other suns and other planets outside of the solar system!

I don't really want to follow these votes

[Prince of Paterson]

Two of those three players have been adamant in getting Delta off. In fact, they are vote 1 and vote 2 on that wagon.

If you are not voting Upwards, the only other possible lim at this stage, you are killing Delta indirectly and supporting a wagon straight up created by both of those players. (because if we get close to the deadline, I'll just hammer Delta)

Doesn't really matter to me, I think both are town.

[Prince of Paterson]

I think Upwards and Delta are both town. I'm concerned by the Comical and Hu Tao votes. Unsure on Gypyx

[Prince of Paterson]

actually the fact you just grabbed a random VC is kinda weird mate

I was considering Upwards and nearly voted but I remembered the wagon on him earlier and wanted to check who voted there.

[Prince of Paterson]

VOTE: Upwards

[Prince of Paterson]

Two of those three players have been adamant in getting Delta off. In fact, they are vote 1 and vote 2 on that wagon.

If you are not voting Upwards, the only other possible lim at this stage, you are killing Delta indirectly and supporting a wagon straight up created by both of those players. (because if we get close to the deadline, I'll just hammer Delta)

I don't believe Lucca makes this post as partners with Delta.

[Prince of Paterson]

How could Lap not be town?

[Prince of Paterson]

Enchant is town.