Mini Normal 2326 | Everything has exploded !

[Dunnstral]

What's up everydunnie

[Dunnstral]

I like DarthPunk's energy

[Dunnstral]

I think there's probably at least one deepfaker in here somewhere, or I'm at least leaving myself open to the possibility so that I don't get hoodwinked by people, but I'm willing to bet there's probably like two scum between Dunnstral / Naerys / Roden.

How much mafia have you played? This logic tends to be wrong.

[Dunnstral]

Dannflor since when were you super into rvs? Or was that all a reaction test?

[Dunnstral]

I think there's probably at least one deepfaker in here somewhere, or I'm at least leaving myself open to the possibility so that I don't get hoodwinked by people, but I'm willing to bet there's probably like two scum between Dunnstral / Naerys / Roden.

Sus post. Looks like you're just going after low hanging fruit. The games been open for like a day? Give it time

I hate to toot my own horn, but I feel like if there's anyone in this game that you could accuse of "just going after low hanging fruit", it certainly isn't me.

I am immediately sus of anyone who is pushing back on what I said (the main reason I said it was to see who would do so / how people would react). There's little to no incentive for townies to discourage people from using what is historically a pretty decent scum tell. But there's PLENTY of scummy reason for scum, who often struggle to find useful things to say, to push back against anyone sending out a reminder that a lack of meaningful contribution is significant.

Can you show that it is historically a good scum tell?

[Dunnstral]

Can you show that it is historically a good scum tell?

Sure, let's look at the most recent Mini Normal game that resolved: viewtopic.php?t=92058

Scum team was HighPrincessErinys, Hu Tao, and Purplemango.

The game had 4147 total posts and lasted for 5 days. With 13 total players, the average contribution of a player is then 4147 / 13 = 319, as your point of reference.

Total number of posts from the scum team:

HighPrincessErinys: 162 (died at end of day 3, so 2 days where no activity would be expected)
Hu Tao: 459 (alive all 5 days)
Purplemango: 103 (alive all 5 days)

Even if we extrapolate HighPrincess's post count for a full 5 days of survival, that would only put them at about 250, still less than the average contribution of 319 posts. Purplemango is clearly well below average at 103. Hu Tao is slightly above average, which I concede, but not above the average by much. Hu Tao was alive for all 5 days, which the majority of players were not, and only managed to come in just above the average.

You can compare that to other very active townies like Flavor Leaf who posted 1130 times and Dragon eater who posted 722 times. When you're a townie, you can post a lot more frequently with much more confidence.

It is not an entirely infallible method. But it is certainly a pretty decent one.

There are so many things wrong with this. First of all you're taking averages in that game and comparing the mafia to be above or below average posting rate. In this game, you've simply said the three lowest posters are mafia. In reality only Purplemango is in the lowest 3 in the game you've linked. You're also using a game where 2 town players have way more posts than normal which are two outliers that is throwing everything out of whack. Finally you've presented a sample size of one which isn't enough to say that this is a trend that occurs over multiple games.

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral‘s scum meter is increasing proportionally to him not playing the game.

I don‘t care if he looks old and has cat ears.

Every time you post something like this it is when I am asleep.

[Dunnstral]

dunnstral why is superfluous' assertion about lurkers like the most interesting thing to you about this game so far

i don't think you're scum for lurking but i don't understand why you are picking at the things you are picking at

Well there's a lot of things that I don't feel like commenting on. Their assertions feel wrong so I felt like commenting on it.

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral

- 7 total posts as of writing this, and the only thing they've really talked about is a take on meta game analysis in post 372, about whether activity level is a sign of guilt. This is as good a time as any to explain my real intent with bringing up the fact that I think less activity is a sign of guilt: it was purely to try and light a fire under the asses of scum and get them to post more. My hope was that it would scare scum lurkers into providing more content, which is great, because the more scum has to say and the more content they have to provide, the more likely they are to screw up and get caught. When you're guilty, you increase your chances of getting caught every time you touch your keyboard and I don't think any scum is unaware of this fact, and I absolutely believe that plays out in games like this.

I mean I will fucking DIE on that hill, that I believe that the guilty just say less, and I cannot fathom why anyone legitimately believes otherwise. I am sympathetic to the view that it doesn't make for a

solid

case against anyone, but you have to be COMPLETELY off your rocker if you don't actually believe that the guilty are simply less likely to say stuff in this game, period.

So on that note, if you're town and you pushed back on me on this, just literally

what the fuck are you doing???

Were you not able to tell why a person might say something like this? If you are actually town and you argued against me on this, not only did you make what I think is a pretty dumb argument, you also just completely obliterated my move to try and scare scum into talking more, and at this point you've done that REALLY effectively, as now scum can look at all the pushback I got for trying to argue that low activity level means something and they can kick back with their cuppa tea or whatever calming beverage they prefer to consume and just let us townies provide all the content eating each other up while doing next to nothing to provide that content that will look scummy. Like, use your heads, people, and understand the implications of your thoughts and actions.

But I digress, the fact that Dunnstral offered so little content and that the only content is meta game analysis, I lean more scum, but there's just not enough content here to really nail that read down.

What am I doing? You offered up what I felt was a bad argument and I put up counterpoints to that. There is a real trend in games to go after the lowest posters as that results in the least push back and I like to steer away from that, especially when, as i've pointed out, they are not more often than not mafia.

[Dunnstral]

I don't really think you are mafia, especially after you wrote that big post. I do suspect what Roden was doing in pushing whatshisname as their confidence felt faked. And now that you've pointed out I agree that Hu Tao's vote on you does not look good so they seem suspicious too.

[Dunnstral]

gob is a hard read. You think they look like mafia because they're making sort of random claims and saying weird things but they do this sort of thing as town too. I don't think they're the type to get "scared" by what you are doing either superfluosninja.

[Dunnstral]

Gonna put my vote here for now.
VOTE: Naerys
Complete lackluster today.

As a side note, how do spoilers actually work here? They seem to be not working correctly in my mind.

Just letting you know, regardless of alignment this is how naery posts. Not a whole lot of content.

What can i say, i prefer to observe from backround

Unless its actually SCUM who are writing those endless posts

Unless its actually SCUM who are writing those endless posts

There is like 7 of them. They can't all be scum :lol:

Trees hiding in a forest

I find this posting suggesting that wall posting is scummy without reading anything fairly suspicious

[Dunnstral]

I don't really think you are mafia, especially after you wrote that big post. I do suspect what Roden was doing in pushing whatshisname as their confidence felt faked. And now that you've pointed out I agree that Hu Tao's vote on you does not look good so they seem suspicious too.

Is this the extent of your reads? Just sheeping ninja?

This is a bit of a straw man. I gave my own reads and mentioned that they had a point on Hu Tao. Also as you can see I'm still reading through the thread.

[Dunnstral]

dunnstral why is superfluous' assertion about lurkers like the most interesting thing to you about this game so far

i don't think you're scum for lurking but i don't understand why you are picking at the things you are picking at

Well there's a lot of things that I don't feel like commenting on. Their assertions feel wrong so I felt like commenting on it.

How is it that you have so many posts on this forum and so few in this game?

I average less posts per day than you do.

[Dunnstral]

I don't really think you are mafia, especially after you wrote that big post. I do suspect what Roden was doing in pushing whatshisname as their confidence felt faked. And now that you've pointed out I agree that Hu Tao's vote on you does not look good so they seem suspicious too.

Can you just summarize your thoughts on the players in the game so that we kind of have a sense of what your thoughts are and how you would like to progress things.

I don't think my thoughts are particularly cryptic in that you can probably iso me with my low posts and get them all within a minute. But sure, let's list them out.


Town: DarthPunk, SuperfluousNinja

Suspicious: Naerys, Roden

And I mentioned that gob is not suspicious because they are playing as suspected. Though that doesn't mean I townread them - I don't really know what they are.

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral, Vivax, i dont really know.

Can you articulate why you believe I am mafia?

[Dunnstral]

The most bothering thing about Dann is that every now and then he pings Dunnstral, but then he goes back to do something completely different. Now i

can see

a townie reason for this, but i admit there is a moderate chance of distancing, because that's some pretty vague shit.

I think this is weird too. I'm not mafia though, this is all on Dann.

[Dunnstral]

General reminder to watch language again, try to use eliminated or yeeted

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler:

I don't really think you are mafia, especially after you wrote that big post. I do suspect what Roden was doing in pushing whatshisname as their confidence felt faked. And now that you've pointed out I agree that Hu Tao's vote on you does not look good so they seem suspicious too.

gob is a hard read. You think they look like mafia because they're making sort of random claims and saying weird things but they do this sort of thing as town too. I don't think they're the type to get "scared" by what you are doing either superfluosninja.

Gonna put my vote here for now.
VOTE: Naerys
Complete lackluster today.

As a side note, how do spoilers actually work here? They seem to be not working correctly in my mind.

Just letting you know, regardless of alignment this is how naery posts. Not a whole lot of content.

What can i say, i prefer to observe from backround

Unless its actually SCUM who are writing those endless posts

Unless its actually SCUM who are writing those endless posts

There is like 7 of them. They can't all be scum :lol:

Trees hiding in a forest

I find this posting suggesting that wall posting is scummy without reading anything fairly suspicious

Here are my reasons. DarthPunk reads tonally as town to me.

[Dunnstral]

I don't really think you are mafia, especially after you wrote that big post. I do suspect what Roden was doing in pushing whatshisname as their confidence felt faked. And now that you've pointed out I agree that Hu Tao's vote on you does not look good so they seem suspicious too.

Can you just summarize your thoughts on the players in the game so that we kind of have a sense of what your thoughts are and how you would like to progress things.

The fact that he left thread without answering this really bothers me by the way.

UNVOTE: gob
VOTE: dunnstral

I am busy and can't spend all my time on this thread. I hope that you can acknowledge this and stop trying to use activity tells to read me.

[Dunnstral]

I rather like outoforder's posts on the last few pages.

[Dunnstral]

Well I forgot about Hu tao. Likely because it wasn't originally my own point that I made. I do suspect them though.

[Dunnstral]

- I can understand your take on Ninja / Roden, however do you think just making a big post makes her town? I mean like... it shouldnt, and i don't see any more reasoning there other than she made a big post.

Well I liked that ninja said she was trying to do something with the activity stuff in that post. I do have a soft spot for big effort posts though.

Also do you have any read on Luca Blight and/or Vivax?
As Ninja is your town read, do you think she can have that kind of confidence in her read on Luca, if you can't have a read on Luca? Why?

I liked the last post Luca made about ninja's post, other than that I don't have much thought. Vivax has been making posts that seem weird to me but I wrote it off as playstyle differences.

And sure I don't have to agree with everything someone says to think they are town. I often don't.

[Dunnstral]

What we were discussing was:
- Ninja placed Dann on town pile for reasons she probably shouldnt (the real reasons came after she did that)
- Ninja placed Luca in "conf town" position but the reasoning in her post didn't include what she actually said makes Luca "conf town"
- Ninja called me out for conf bias, when that "conf bias" actually meant that i shouldnt know i am town

I didn't have a problem with Ninja's read on Dann. They talk about how they missed the post and then talked about their reads after.
Looking back at 499 they do seem to point to a Luca post they liked and explain their read.
And I don't see where they talk about confirmation bias regarding you.

In a similar sense, in case Ninja is actually town, Luca's "100% agree to that post" doesn't look good to me, because there is DEFINITELY stuff you should not agree with. It's just very easy thing to say as mafia in case you know it's actually a townie who wrote that post.

This is a good point.

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: dunnstral

VOTE: dunnstral

This almost quick hammer was really random

[Dunnstral]

Hu Tao's vote feels survivalistic. I think they are voting me because I said I suspect them and are the largest wagon.

[Dunnstral]

Roden she said you used language that makes it seem like you have a rock-solid opinion.

[Dunnstral]

Not meta reads, meta game analysis.

[Dunnstral]

You are the second person to misunderstand their reasons against their own person in a short time.

[Dunnstral]

Not meta reads, meta game analysis.

What's the difference?

Talking about what a player would do is meta reads. Talking broadly about whether activity is a good indicator for alignment is meta game analysis.

[Dunnstral]

Okay so Roden came back vomited up some stuff and left, what are y’all thoughts about it?

I was expecting some pushback from my read on them but they either didn't get there yet or didn't find it memorable.

[Dunnstral]

Okay so Roden came back vomited up some stuff and left, what are y’all thoughts about it?

I was expecting some pushback from my read on them but they either didn't get there yet or didn't find it memorable.

thoughts on what ooo and me are talking about?

I think Dann is capable of looking at things from multiple perspectives.

[Dunnstral]

Gotta go to work. I would appreciate if you, Dunnstral could link to your latest town and mafia game so i can read them after i get back home.

Town: viewtopic.php?t=92020

Mafia: viewtopic.php?t=91817

[Dunnstral]

I guess if I’m wrong on a town read in these three I think OoO is the most likely to be wrong?

he does say this right before but otherwise you are in his firmly town section in the reads list that he posted a while before this whole thing happened.
idk just that masons wouldnt be the first place my brain goes to if someone yells dont yeet that dude

It's actually a bit weird he says this:

To be clear, my current pool would be Oats/Ninja/OoO but Ninja is more on a whim right now.
That said I appreciate that Naerys thinks similarly.

I guess if I’m wrong on a town read in these three I think OoO is the most likely to be wrong?

I feel increasingly solid about Ninja as town

I mean, he has just expressed suspicion towards Vivax.
Why does he care about who Vivax scumreads? Or like "if one of these three NEEDS to be mafia THEN it's this guy". Seems a bit out of place how to talk to your scumread.

To expand on my post, Dannflor would not be 100% sure that Vivax is mafia so is still capable of looking at things from a perspective where Vivax is town. That is why they are asking questions like that - because they are considering things from multiple angles. (Or if mafia, that's what they'd like us to believe. I do think they are quite good at mafia which makes it hard to townread them, which I believe is something they get irritated at.)

[Dunnstral]

I'm asking if I have actually done this, or if he is fabricating this case.

If I've done this, I want to see an actual, concrete, quoted example of me doing so.

you did it for instance when you were voting for me but already telling basically youre gonna vote for gob.

Ugh, I am getting really tired of people just referring to things I did without actually quoting me.

EVIDENCE, PEOPLE. USE IT. STOP JUST TALKING ABOUT THINGS THAT HAPPENED AND SHOW THEM HAPPENING.

I don't know why I'm getting frustrated this morning lol but I think I am a little bothered that people are just saying "X did Y" without actually demonstrating that X did Y. Let's see some real evidence, folks.

They were talking about 499 earlier (not the post you're quoting here) when they talked about you putting me in null but scumreading me. I think your categories were correct but they were likely confused by the part you wrote about me at the end.

[Dunnstral]

Roden she said you used language that makes it seem like you have a rock-solid opinion.

Right. Why does town think scum has a "rock-solid opinion"? Scum just lies.

You are not really getting this. She is saying that you are indicating you have a strong opinion with your language, and that is part of her argument. She is not reading into your state of mind.

[Dunnstral]

The most bothering thing about Dann is that every now and then he pings Dunnstral, but then he goes back to do something completely different. Now i

can see

a townie reason for this, but i admit there is a moderate chance of distancing, because that's some pretty vague shit.

I think this is weird too. I'm not mafia though, this is all on Dann.

Why did you find this weird?

They continuously took issue with what I was responding to. My crime was holding a conversation.

[Dunnstral]

Ngl it's really feeling like people don't actually scum read me and are just mad I attacked their off site buddy, and then got so loud about it for 40+ pages that other people just eventually followed suit

Pretty disingenuous reading of the situation

I'm going to agree with this.

It's definitely not true for me, so yeah.

[Dunnstral]

I comment on what I find interesting and correcting incorrect assumptions is interesting to me. I'm not likely to change the way I play.

[Dunnstral]

Literally nothing in this case makes me mafia.

I also keep returning to this response to my initial push on DP.

DarthPunk's response isn't to try and figure out whether I'm "bad town" pushing him or mafia pushing him. Instead his initial inclination is to focus on how the case doesn't make him mafia. Again, I don't think a town player's inclination here is to try and debunk the case point by point.

DP spends 568 doing pretty much exactly that

And then he follows up with 570 to ensure that everyone knows that the quality of my case is bad.

He's focused on the quality of my case, not my alignment. I really don't think this guy has been or is still trying to figure out what my alignment is, or anyone's alignment for that matter

I don't think this is a good arguement for them being mafia. Town can focus on the quality of the case.

[Dunnstral]

This Dann vs DP thing has good odds of just being TvT for the same reason I wanted to have a quarrel with Dann earlier.

What was that reason?

Being antagonistic because someone saw their status challenged.

Dann is supposed to be something like a personal champion of the site I think.

Maybe the fact DP could outshine him in the long term wants him to shut DP down.
It‘s kinda townie, but won‘t be helpful. Every duck measuring contest on TL ended up being tvt.

I don't think Dann has that much ego to do that.

[Dunnstral]

This Dann vs DP thing has good odds of just being TvT for the same reason I wanted to have a quarrel with Dann earlier.

What was that reason?

Being antagonistic because someone saw their status challenged.

Dann is supposed to be something like a personal champion of the site I think.

Maybe the fact DP could outshine him in the long term wants him to shut DP down.
It‘s kinda townie, but won‘t be helpful. Every duck measuring contest on TL ended up being tvt.

I don't think Dann has that much ego to do that.

so you think dann as mafia would not challenge town!DP?

I thought the post I was responding to was saying that Dann as town saw DP as a threat to his status as "paragon of the site" or somesuch and was going after DP due to an ego thing? That's what I don't think. I do think Dann could challenge DP - not for those reasons.

[Dunnstral]

Why do you care so little about steering the game ?

I'm not confident in a scumread. If I were I would be casing it. I thought Luca Blight's last post was reasonable so am not keen on joining the wagon. I think Roden is not towny, I feel bad going after them though. When I played with Naerys and they were mafia I thought they were town in the early game. Here I'm not really getting that feeling, so that might mean they are actually town.

[Dunnstral]

Grackaroni actually looked at the linked games so that leans townie

[Dunnstral]

I am 25 pages behind

[Dunnstral]

i could also do grackaroni and cheese

Oh okay, so the SECOND most inactive player, then? Let's just skip over the 80+ pages of stuff we have on people and just go for the ones we know the least about?

I find this really weird that after all the effort you've put into this game and after everything we've been through, the most intriguing lims in your book are the two that we know the least about.

I think I've officially shifted to Hu Tao / Vivax / Dann as the scum team.

This was the problem I had with you early in this game

[Dunnstral]

Also, are people actually falling for Hu Tao's dog-ate-my-homework-esque excuse that they were intentionally acting scummy as a feint? As a town I feel like a legitimate contemplation of that strategy would lead you to realize how much of a terrible idea it is in like 2 seconds.

I haven't seen the context but this does not sound believable to me.

[Dunnstral]

i could also do grackaroni and cheese

Oh okay, so the SECOND most inactive player, then? Let's just skip over the 80+ pages of stuff we have on people and just go for the ones we know the least about?

I find this really weird that after all the effort you've put into this game and after everything we've been through, the most intriguing lims in your book are the two that we know the least about.

I think I've officially shifted to Hu Tao / Vivax / Dann as the scum team.

This was the problem I had with you early in this game

You're saying, you had a problem with me because I seemed to be suspecting inactives?

I don't know that that was really a big part of my early reads. I know I brought up that I do think activity levels mean something, but as this game has gone on, I have kinda abandoned that avenue. I think almost everyone has said enough at this point to get a good read on people, with three exceptions: Naerys, Roden, and Grack, though even Grack has said a decent amount of stuff at this point. But still not as much as the rest of us.

707

[Dunnstral]

Though I think that is a natural inclination that even town players fall into and not an indicator that someone is mafia.

[Dunnstral]

707

Yeah, I put you down as null. I said that I LEAN scum, but I still classified you as null, because I didn't have enough to go off of at that point.

I did not put you in my scum category.

That was my problem with what you were doing before this point

[Dunnstral]

And who is "our"? Am I the only one here who doesn't know what Team Liquid is?

It's an eSports team.

[Dunnstral]

Dunn was significantly more involved in that game I thought

I had about 100 posts in 4 days in that game. I have 50 posts here and it's day 1.

[Dunnstral]

I'm on the fence about Dunn. This is similar to the commercial game where he was town. But that comment about me being survivalist was terrible in the game state. Dunn can you clarify that part at least. Cause I think there is a chance you're town here. What about my vote felt survivalist

I don't remember. I think because ninja + me posted suspicion on you and then you turned around and voted me without much reasoning.

[Dunnstral]

Even if gob is a troll town, him voting Dunnstral and being familiar with him is a plus. And I think it's a serious vote.

When did they say this?

[Dunnstral]

In 2 or 3 games. I don't think they've ever seen me play as mafia before either.

[Dunnstral]

I am a vt.

[Dunnstral]

Maybe he didn't see he was e-1 just wait.

I already ruled that out. He quoted the post from Vivax that did exactly that; he just erased the portion of it saying that he was at -1.

I didn't claim because there was no intent yet.

[Dunnstral]

Yeah. SuperfluosNinja seems super town and the paranoia that crops up every so often seems unfounded. If we presume Roden is town for their claim then I think Oatsmaster has a bad track record this game.

[Dunnstral]

What upgrades that from a pile of names to a team?

[Dunnstral]

A quick look at Nasrys iso and I don't think they are mafia, really. With that said they've done less than me so not sure why all the "lurker" hate is directed at me.

[Dunnstral]

Is there a way for us to confirm that there IS a jailkeeper in this game? Like will the jailkept person be told "you were kept in jail" or some such thing?

You can speculate on game balance further into the game when more roles have claimed

[Dunnstral]

Trying to guess all 3 mafia on day 1 is silly. And with no supporting argument why would I play along?