Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Firebringer

[Umlaut]

I recognize everyone but Meuh. (I saw right through the Bulge's disguise. You're not fooling anyone, buddy.)

[Umlaut]

TRing Rat for the E-1, mostly because I wanted to do the same thing (except for not actually having any reason to think Cook is scum)

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Merlyn

Semi-serious, I don't claim to have any sort of meaningful read here but there are a few things I don't like.

[Umlaut]

To answer the "why Merlyn" questions:

I recognize everyone but Meuh and Cook

VOTE: Meuh no one recognizes them, must mean something

This isn't a big deal but for some reason I can't express it seemed more "forced" than the other random votes, and also a bit like picking on the player you perceived as least experienced.

she does not know laughing crying emoji

VOTE: invis gatekeeping knowledge

Really dumb reason for a vote and looks like going through the motions of voting for things you think you ought to find suspect instead of things that actually are.

[Umlaut]

Kind of buy the towwl case though so VOTE: towwl

[Umlaut]

I like that Meuh likes me.

Ausuka, are you really scumreading Bingle just for having an idea you disagree with? That's... pretty weak. And I'm saying that as someone who agrees more with you than with Bingle on this (that trying to signal the other team is a bad idea, compared to just trying not to be so super-townread that you get shot or something if you are really worried about that)

[Umlaut]

if anyone wants to guess how many shots of vodka i've had i'll give you my vote

5 shots, and a beer mixed in as well.

Ooh now I want some bourbon, good thing I am actually at a bar right now.

I happen to be reading this with a quality scotch in hand but I'm usually more of a bourbon man myself.

[Umlaut]

Oban 14yo

[Umlaut]

If I have to do this every time I want to get townread it's going to get expensive though.

[Umlaut]

Almost want to call FB a townlean for the gimmick but I'm pretty sure he decided on it before the game started, so nah

[Umlaut]

Oooorrr I could just drink the mid-range stuff out of a gem-encrusted chalice!

[Umlaut]

To answer the "why Merlyn" questions:

I recognize everyone but Meuh and Cook

VOTE: Meuh no one recognizes them, must mean something

This isn't a big deal but for some reason I can't express it seemed more "forced" than the other random votes, and also a bit like picking on the player you perceived as least experienced.

she does not know laughing crying emoji

VOTE: invis gatekeeping knowledge

Really dumb reason for a vote and looks like going through the motions of voting for things you think you ought to find suspect instead of things that actually are.

Yooooooooooo the mindmeld is crazy, Umlaut town

This mindmeld feels weird. A forced RVS vote and both missing the joke in 83. Could be a pocketing attempt from Meuh

Fwiw I'm wary of a pocket there too. For now there's nothing else that bugs me about Meuh though so I think that's just natural paranoia.

Invis votes FB as an RVS vote, then follows with seemingly jokey votes on Cook and Towwl. I feel like Invis was gauging the reactions to the votes.

Black votes FB, then Invis basically immediately follows suit but includes the bolded part.....which is the biggest signal to me.

I feel Invis strongly feels like Black's vote on FB was a signal to them(them being Invis), and Black's response to just run FB no matter what was the response that makes me feel that Black was picking up what Invis was putting down.

This is why I have been a bit vague with Black, seems more clear that Invis was signalling more than Black.....but am fine with a Black vote as well.

Pre Edit: Eww Black, you should I don't do mech talk lol

And FB, it is ok....the bad people will be killed soon.

This case seems really overwrought to me and prima facie implausible. Like... even granted that would be useful for Mafia to signal one another if they could find a way to do that... it's very hard

psychologically

to do so, and if they are even a little on the fence about it then I don't believe they do it, and I don't believe it's such a slam dunk case for doing so that they are sure it's a good idea this soon in the game.

[Umlaut]

Agreed with the consensus that 357 is goodposting. I'm not as ready as some people to hang a townread on it, I think RR is probably capable of making that post as scum, but... it's good. I'll leave it at that.


Viz, I guess I must be a moon man because you're making perfect sense to me with 395/396.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Drew

I need to go read the case on Bingle because right now I don't really get it.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Ausuka

Looked through her iso and there is literally nothing to townread, go look at it yourself.

[Umlaut]

If you're legitimately saying you think that people who say that they think it is more likely for scum to point out things they think are scummy

I have no idea how this is supposed to be parsed.

[Umlaut]

i should clarify; what im talking about isnt really mechtalk, its what typically takes mechtalk's place in a not-especially-mechanically-heavy setup, and thats very subjective theorycrafting discussed in a very objective sense about what to expect from each alignment in a given setup. its almost always distracting, annoying, self-indulgent at best and scum-motivated at worst. this kind of d1 discussion typically starts with scum in my experience and usually succeeds in distracting town discussions from real scumhunting.

@Umlaut: This, roughly, boils down to: Saying things are scummy.

I... guess I can believe you'd get that out of it, but what I understand the Bulge to be talking about here is: engaging in arguments about whether some thing is/isn't a scumtell, as a way of avoiding more object-level arguments about which players are/aren't scum.

[Umlaut]

Merlyn, granting arguendo that that qualifies as a push on towwl, what do you like about that push?

[Umlaut]

Yeah, I agree that's what you were doing, I wasn't saying it was a

good

point, I was saying it wasn't "Saying things are scummy is scummy".

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Ausuka

Looked through her iso and there is literally nothing to townread, go look at it yourself.

Is voting someone because you don't townread them on like page 10 something you often do

Yeah, I've pretty much given up on claiming to ever know anyone is scum with any sort of confidence short of a mech guilty. Even my best cases only catch scum like one time out of three, which is... not bad actually, 1 in 3 odds are good enough to win a game on, but I can't bring myself to do the whole "so-and-so is definitely scum" thing these days when I know I'm full of it.

[Umlaut]

I believe in townbringer

Black's votes are scummy but then scum are probably less likely than town to do something scummy like that so I am going to townread black instead

Also this read on Black is hot garbage and makes me feel better about my vote.

[Umlaut]

I believe in townbringer

Black's votes are scummy but then scum are probably less likely than town to do something scummy like that so I am going to townread black instead

Also this read on Black is hot garbage and makes me feel better about my vote.

I like Umlaut, and I like Bingle.... despite what the haterz say. I will sheep them on someone I don't like.

VOTE: Ausuka

Yesss, the scotch pocket is working

("The scotch pocket" is my signature sex move)

[Umlaut]

RR's goodposting continues, but I say that about them every game (except the one where I was scum shitpushing them) so I have to decide how much I'm willing to townread them for it. At least a little, I guess.

[Umlaut]

Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town ->

This is useful information if true, can you back it up? (I only really remember one game with Ausuka, and I was modding that one)

[Umlaut]

Oh, you're already talking about that, lol. I'm playing catchup right now.

[Umlaut]

I feel like a whole lot of the arguing over what scum would do in this setup is assuming scum are any better than we are at figuring out optimal play. If I were scum in this setup I would have just come in playing my usual game and not thought much about the mechanical implications for at least a while.

[Umlaut]

I was going to say I could see myself voting Black, but tbh I really like 522/528. It's a good catch and I like that she's just pointing it out and not overselling it as some sort of smoking gun gotcha.

[Umlaut]

It's weird that RR and I are at odds like this, most of our games I'm nodding my head along with everything they post but I really don't see the Bingle case and think Ausuka is a fine yeet.

I could compromise on Cook, she has made essentially no impression at all on me this game which is a good enough reason for a day 1 choice.

[Umlaut]

I played with Bingle in another mechanics-heavy game recently (Coalition) and feel comfortable saying that their focus on theory is just a thing they do, not a scummy thing in particular.

[Umlaut]

I have to pick (b) but honestly you should find something more fun to do while tripping than argue with people on the internet.

[Umlaut]

also i'm liking the bulge but i'd like to point out that discussing that as a scum tactic is in of itself doing the same thing it claims to condemn: speaking in hypotheticals

I shouldn't be townreading Bulge for this but I sort of am?

And also I wasn't thrilled by that Cook post,

tu quoque

is disproportionately common from scum imo.

[Umlaut]

I mean I was sort of townreading Bulge anyway just on general unexamined gut feelings but the snark helps too.

[Umlaut]

oh gosh i might not be able to post today

havin a good come up tho

Please give a report on how it went when you get a chance!

[Umlaut]

I feel like "everyone on my wagon is town" is not the readlist Bingle comes up with if they are just making things up to sound towny

[Umlaut]

Sold.

VOTE: Cook

[Umlaut]

Hi, no time to catch up rn so I'll just respond to one thing from a zillion pages ago.

I feel like "everyone on my wagon is town" is not the readlist Bingle comes up with if they are just making things up to sound towny

why? i've definitely seen weirder and i think that readslist makes close to no sense regardless of anyone's alignment lmao

Okay, but do you think a readlist that makes no sense is town-indicative, scum-indicative, or neither? I think it's town-indicative because scum don't like to take stances that will be questioned heavily and draw attention.

[Umlaut]

I feel like I've wandered into a bizarre land where everyone speaks a language just slightly different from English. I'd be fine with Drew, cook/sheep, SkyG, Meuh lims atp. I still think ausuka/meuh makes a lot of sense as a pair, and I'm pretty baffled by any townread on either of them. I'm vaguely feeling better about Merlyn from engagement with her. Umlaut feels town in the exact same way he did as scum in Coalition, in that he's being reasonable and actually makes sense, which makes me paranoid. Not a D1, but don't let him near XLO if I'm the lim today.

Join us on Sheep, it's a good wagon. Cook did nothing to suggest she was town and all of Sheep's positioning has been gross today. Like, look at this:

I prefer something like drew/bulge but if no one is interested I am fine to just vote bingle with so little time left lolz

This is explicitly planning a jump onto your wagon while disclaiming any responsibility for the result. If you look at the VC at that time it's obvious neither Drew nor Bulge is going to happen so Sheep is giving himself only one option here.

Also:

Looking at the lead wagons, I'd rather lim Bingle than sheep. I guess. A Sheep lim would give so little info. But I hate lims that the best reason is 'we'll get a lot of info when you die!'

As was pointed out later, we get very little info by eliminating anyone. A green flip is actually more informative: on a red flip, the only other player we could get associatives dies with them anyway. So really you should just be voting whichever leading wagon you think is more likely to flip red, and taking the info from a green flip as a consolation prize at best.

[Umlaut]

I think towwl came on a bit strong with a chainsaw before replacing into Drew, who has since mostly just pushed my townreads with reasons of varying degrees of bad.

Cook herself was mostly fine during RVS, though I don't care for the self-vote, especially since she unvoted without voting anyone else, then mostly faded into the background, with the posts she did make not being very good. Since you've been here, the main thing of note's been the readslist, which... doesn't really do much for me, not least because of the misrepresentation on me. While I've already admitted my post wasn't as clear as I'd thought it was, I still think in context it shouldn't have looked like I was just co-opting Firebringer's case, and framing it that way was deliberate on your end.

Plus, no one seems to be actually townreading or defending you, yet your wagon isn't moving much. I'd expect scum to defend their buddy, but I'd ALSO expect them to be opportunistic here if you weren't their buddy.

So I think your partner (who I am guessing is Drew) is trying not to engage and reinforce the association, while the other pair thinks you're too likely to be scum to actually push, and doesn't want to defend too hard in case you go through.

[Umlaut]

Also like, to be clear I have no doubt that sky is genuinely busy and would not be hyperposting as town and this is not about that, but I think the brand of post where you're like "I promise to catch up/give content soon" is like somewhat more likely to come from mafia?

Are you saying this about Sky in particular or about people in general? Because I'm pretty sure I do that a lot more as town because I feel more guilty about not having done more.

I like this string of posts though.

[Umlaut]

Feeling always one scum in Black/Bella and I wanna set my sights there tomorrow but I don't think a lim there is happening today
Not really compelled by the biggest wagons at this point? Bingle is fine I guess, there's like a disconnect between his view of the game and the game itself from my pov that isn't necessarily scummy but his need to make sure it's always rationalized is pretty blegh (828 is a bit iffy to me) but I also feel like he's making the game move forward and feels fairly solvy at times + has some good thought processes at times (little moments like 865 I like)
I think Sheep can flip scum fairly often (Cook did nothing town indicative and Sheep hasn't wowed me at all) but I'm also not really actively getting scumpings there and I think Sheep is one of the players who's more readable long-term and I'd rather lim someone who I think won't be
I kinda want a lim in {osuka, Drew, Merlyn} because they're all players I'm neutral on at best who I'm not super confident will be easy to read long-term

For the record I could do Black if the wagon were already there, but mostly because her latest posts set off my chainsaw detector which is a pretty weak reason by itself, so I'd rather not if I have better options.

Will you vote Sheep over Bingle if those are the choices?

[Umlaut]

Feeling always one scum in Black/Bella and I wanna set my sights there tomorrow but I don't think a lim there is happening today

I kinda want a lim in {osuka, Drew, Merlyn} because they're all players I'm neutral on at best who I'm not super confident will be easy to read long-term

First of all why do you think I'm scummy? And second why would you not want to vote for me or Bella due to not thinking we could get limmed, yet you're willing to vote for osuka, Merlyn, and Drew? Why are those 3 more likely to get limmed today? And which of these 3 are you "neutral" on? It seems really weird that you're willing to vote for someone you're neutral on instead of me/Bella who you seem pretty confident consists of one scum

I like this post though.

[Umlaut]

Meuh, who would you dayvig today if you could?

[Umlaut]

There has been just as much interest in a wagon on me as there has been with Merlyn, unless I'm mistaken. It just feels weird that you would go there instead of me when your read suggests you think I'm more likely to flip scum. Like what's the harm in trying to start a wagon up on me? At least two other people have said they would be willing to vote there. It feels like you're going for Merlyn because she's an easier target tbh

How is there as much interest in a wagon on you as on Merlyn yet Merlyn is an easier target?

[Umlaut]

For the record I could do Black if the wagon were already there, but mostly because her latest posts set off my chainsaw detector

Who am I chainsaw defending?

Sheep, except that I don't really hard-believe it, it was just a sense I got reading 886-888.

[Umlaut]

That's a pretty weak disclaimer :/ There is a lot of room between "complete nonsense" and "will hit mafia literally one hundred percent of the time," how reliable do you think this tell is?

[Umlaut]

That's a pretty weak disclaimer :/ There is a lot of room between "complete nonsense" and "will hit mafia literally one hundred percent of the time," how reliable do you think this tell is?

idk dude do you want a mathematical equation here

I mean, if you have one...

(in principle it is actually possible to measure evidence like this in bits or bels or something)

But no, I just mean do you think it's reliable enough to hang a read on in itself or not.

[Umlaut]

I would reallllllllly rather go with Sheep than Black. I will go along with Black if that's what it takes to get a wagon through but it doesn't seem like RR really wants it any more than I do.

[Umlaut]

Half thinking of just giving in and voting Bingle even though I think it flips town, because if nothing else a lot of opinions have been expressed about them and if he is town then there is almost certainly scum on the wagon (regardless of Bingle's claims to the contrary)

[Umlaut]

FYI I'm no more certain Bingle is town than Drew so if the counterwagon goes that way I'm probably just giving up and voting Bingle.

[Umlaut]

Sure, as long as we actually do it. I overall like this wagon better anyway.

VOTE: Drew

Drew, if you flip green I'll owe you a glass of Lagavulin.

[Umlaut]

If sheep tries to weasel out of it, we all immediately wagon him, yeah?

This is what "Sure, as long as we actually do it" was replying to

[Umlaut]

Imagine knowing the names of the enemies instead of just going "Ah the fuckin' egg dude"

Ah the fuckin egg dude.

Umlaut, get in the pocket and pour me a whiskey.

Vote

Quimby

Ausuka

I don't think Ausuka is scum though. I thought so at the start of the day but the world moves on.

[Umlaut]

I was the first to push drew before it was cool and was always down to vote their I think we look pretty unpaired

confirmed pair

You realize there is literally no benefit to busing your lover in this game, right? You die too so you can't do anything with the towncred.

[Umlaut]

Fuck it.

VOTE: sheep

I'll be here tomorrow morning to hammer whatever I need to hammer, but I may as well stake out my real position in the meantime.

[Umlaut]

Never too much Oban

[Umlaut]

I've tried to use that tell before. It's never worked for me even though it feels like it ought to.

[Umlaut]

I'm not so convinced as others that the kill was Meuh and not Skygazer, Meuh definitely took some heat at points yesterday and I'm really not sure what anyone's read on Sky was. But also it probably doesn't matter much because NKA isn't going to get us very far.

Don's failure to remember how the setup works is probably a legit townslip.

[Umlaut]

yeet

Black [8]:

Firebringer,

Meuh

, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn, Ausuka, Donempire

[HAMMER]

Bingle [2]:

The Bulge

, osuka

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

sheepsaysmeep [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

I would be quite surprised to learn there was only one scum on Black. I think RR, Ausuka, Don are town. I thought Bingle was town just because they were very

solvey

but I'm reëvaluating in light of how much resistance there was to what at seemed like the foregone conclusion wagon. Could go either way on FB or Drew.

I think we yeet Bingle today to settle the question.

VOTE: Bingle

[Umlaut]

(Yes, I do realize that if Bingle was scum only one scumbuddy knew it so "so much resistance" is a hard tell to reason about; I still think this is the right move now)

[Umlaut]

Looking back, it seems like the main people Meuh didn't want to lim even toward the end would have been Invisibility, Firebringer, and Bulge.

Obviously the Bulge read was genuine, since that's where she shot, but it seems plausible that Meuh thought at least one of Invisibility/Firebringer was scum. She was explicitly okay with, and campaigning for, Drew and Bingle, so those were probably her townreads.

That comes with the caveat of Meuh not actually KNOWING of course, but I think we can treat this similarly to a Townie's legacy reads.

Unfortunately, I don't really think I agree much with those reads, except still leaning Town on Bingle, so I don't really have a point to make here like I thought I would when I started.

This is town af, I was going to critique the entire premise of caring who Meuh thought was scum until I got to the last sentence.

[Umlaut]

What I mean is: if I were scum and that were the post I ended up writing, I would erase it and try again. Posting it anyway after it goes nowhere is what's town af.

[Umlaut]

Firebringer looks pretty town on this page too, both tonally in 1175 and taking the "Donempire is VI" position in 1178 and 1180.

Still like the "yeet Bingle" plan but could go back to Sheep today if there's the will for it.

[Umlaut]

yeet

Black [8]:

Firebringer,

Meuh

, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn, Ausuka, Donempire

[HAMMER]

Bingle [2]:

The Bulge

, osuka

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

sheepsaysmeep [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

I would be quite surprised to learn there was only one scum on Black.

Does anyone disagree with this and think it's likely there was only one scum on Black? Because that's... kind of important for where we choose to vote today.

[Umlaut]

I mean most people have scum reads on at least one other person who voted for Black, so ya there definitely is a chance. But this kinda sounds like a hollow question, who would you say is scum on the wagon? And off the wagon if you don't think there are two scum on there?

I've already said that I think scum on the wagon is between you, Bingle, Firebringer, and Merlyn. Out of those I want to vote out Bingle first because even if it's wrong it'll help us make better sense of Day 1 events.

I don't have an opinion one way or the other about whether both remaining scum were on the wagon. There's no reason they couldn't be, but if I magically knew there was scum off the wagon I'd go back to voting Sheep today.

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: I colored in every vote count from yesterday but didn't get anything out of it but here they are anyway

yeet

towwl [3]:

Cook, osuka, Ausuka

Firebringer [2]:

Invisibility, Umlaut

Merlyn [2]:

Radical Rat,

Meuh

Cook [2]:

The Bulge

, Bingle

Meuh

[1]:

Merlyn

osuka [1]:

towwl

not voting [4]:

Skygazer

,

Black

, Bellaphant, Firebringer

yeet

Cook [5]:

The Bulge

, Bingle, Bellaphant, Cook, Radical Rat

towwl [3]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility

Firebringer [2]:

Umlaut, osuka

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

Ausuka [1]:

towwl

Invisibility [1]:

Merlyn

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

,

Black

yeet

Cook [4]:

The Bulge

, Bingle, Bellaphant, Radical Rat

Firebringer [2]:

Black

, Invisibility

Merlyn [2]:

Meuh

, Umlaut

towwl [2]:

Firebringer, osuka

Ausuka [1]:

towwl

Invisibility [1]:

Merlyn

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Cook [3]:

The Bulge

, Bellaphant, Radical Rat

Doctor Drew [3]:

Firebringer, Invisibility, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Doctor Drew, Bingle

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Invisibility [1]:

Merlyn

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

osuka [1]:

Meuh

not voting [3]:

Skygazer

, Cook, osuka

yeet

Doctor Drew [5]:

Umlaut, Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn,

Black

Bingle [3]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility

Cook [2]:

The Bulge

, Bellaphant

Invisibility [1]:

Doctor Drew

Ausuka [1]:

Bingle

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility,

The Bulge

,

Black

Doctor Drew [4]:

Umlaut, Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Invisibility [1]:

Doctor Drew

Ausuka [1]:

Bingle

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility,

The Bulge

,

Black

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Ausuka [2]:

Bingle, Umlaut

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Invisibility [1]:

Doctor Drew

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility,

The Bulge

Ausuka [4]:

Bingle, Umlaut, Black, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Bingle [3]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Black

[2]:

Invisibility,

Meuh

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility

Ausuka [3]:

Umlaut,

Black

, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [2]:

osuka, Merlyn

Cook [2]:

Bellaphant, Radical Rat

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

not voting [2]:

Skygazer

, Cook

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Bellaphant, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Black

, Doctor Drew

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Bellaphant [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer,

The Bulge

, Invisibility, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Donempire, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Black

, Doctor Drew

Black

[1]:

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [3]:

Firebringer,

The Bulge

, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Donempire, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Black

, Doctor Drew

Merlyn [2]:

Invisibility,

Meuh

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [3]:

Firebringer,

The Bulge

, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Donempire, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Merlyn [2]:

Invisibility,

Meuh

Meuh

[2]:

Bingle,

Black

Ausuka [1]:

Doctor Drew

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Skygazer

[1]:

Ausuka

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Firebringer,

The Bulge

, osuka,

Meuh

sheepsaysmeep [2]:

Radical Rat, Umlaut

Firebringer [2]:

Donempire,

Black

Skygazer

[2]:

Ausuka, sheepsaysmeep

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

Meuh

[1]:

Bingle

Ausuka [1]:

Doctor Drew

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

[Umlaut]

What do you think of osuka, Umlaut?

I haven't done any sort of deep dive on him to form a solid opinion, which I probably should now that I think of it. My surface impression is that I would not blink if he flipped scum but I'm worried that my general dislike of his style is coloring my opinion.

[Umlaut]

I believe I talked before about their early recklessness not likely to come from scum in this setup, and then they dumbtelled forgetting the setup by questioning why I would wait for two scum to flip, which... osuka strikes me as being too egotistical to fake a mistake like that, and obviously would be more conscious of it as scum.

This is... actually not a bad point at all

[Umlaut]

Reveal as the IC

No point in laying low since maf can find me at night now.

Whisper roles to me xd

I really don't get why reveal here and now (though as RR pointed out it doesn't matter), but I'm glad IC is Don since I don't think that was ever a slot that would be hard-townread.

Firebringer could easily be scum so I'm happy to sheep Don here.

VOTE: Firebringer

Not super psyched about the wagon on me but I get it, I've been more out of the game today than I was yesterday. I don't understand what I as scum am supposed to gain from flipping on Bingle, though, particularly when that wagon is clearly going nowhere today.

[Umlaut]

This is so scummy it's ridiculous. Aside from the unabashed rolefishing here are a few reasons ic revealing would suck,

ill rolefish all day my friend

Are u the IC?

If anyone is wondering i fucking had a huge feeling done was IC back here

10 points to griffindor

Why did you think that? It doesn't seem like an obvious soft to me (and also it makes no sense to soft IC).

[Umlaut]

VOTE: umlaut

i love wagons

Best vote on me by far

[Umlaut]

I'm town tho

[Umlaut]

I mean, I feel like we almost win no matter what we do today so it's hard for me to get too outraged, but I'd rather lim scum if it's all the same.

Rat, why is Firebringer out of your PoE?

[Umlaut]

don't know if ur playing dumb or not but when i suggested "hey ic should reveal" and there people discussing it, donempire the IC in hiding had the most negative reaction to it which was telling because it was a suggestion and he could disagree with the suggestion sure, but he did it in an obvious way that i think an IC in hiding would do.

Like he basically was reacting in a way of "NO IM NOT OUTING MYSELF AND YOUR SCUMMY FOR SUGGESTING SO"
that was my gut feeling for his response.

i want to point out too. I wasn't trying to do secret IC hunting, i just immediately thought that if IC revealed it could increase chances scum both go for him and they waste a night and it elimmed someone from elim pool. But whatever discussion is over and he revealed.

I guess I was playing dumb a little because I wanted to see how you answered that. I didn't read that as a strong IC tell but then I wasn't looking for one. I was looking for an indication that you were PR-hunting. I didn't get one, which was... really the most likely result of asking but it was worth a try.

[Umlaut]

I mean, I feel like we almost win no matter what we do today so it's hard for me to get too outraged, but I'd rather lim scum if it's all the same.

how come

Why would I rather lim scum?

I really have no idea how to answer that. "Lim scum" is, like, the fundamental goal that all other goals are in service of.

[Umlaut]

I mean, I feel like we almost win no matter what we do today so it's hard for me to get too outraged, but I'd rather lim scum if it's all the same.

how come

Why would I rather lim scum?

I really have no idea how to answer that. "Lim scum" is, like, the fundamental goal that all other goals are in service of.

no like how come you feel so confident lol

That we win? Just because we have three misyeets available and only have to catch one scum to win. I haven't done the EV calculation but I'm pretty sure that's heavily townsided.

[Umlaut]

idk about you guys but I think we shouldn't lim Don

[Umlaut]

It's weird that RR and I are at odds like this, most of our games I'm nodding my head along with everything they post but I really don't see the Bingle case and think Ausuka is a fine yeet.

I could compromise on Cook, she has made essentially no impression at all on me this game which is a good enough reason for a day 1 choice.

My problems here are twofold. I have no idea what we were "at odds" about for one, but also I'm pretty sure the most recent game we were in together was Chrono Trigger where I literally got Umlaut mislimmed as Town because I pulled a poorly thought out fake Cop gambit out of my ass, so to hear that it's weird he isn't nodding along with me is... well, a bit weird.

We were "at odds" because I misread or misremembered your earlier post as having a strong scumread on Bingle that didn't make sense to me. I'll need to go back to that game because I do remember it, but I remember even then going, "Damn, I guess he's scum even though I don't see it at all in his play..." and being more annoyed than surprised to find it was a gambit.

[Umlaut]

I have been getting misyeeted early a

lot

lately, going to need to do some serious work on my town play particularly if it happens again

[Umlaut]

Also,

@mod V/LA from tomorrow thru July 6

[Umlaut]

My problems here are twofold. I have no idea what we were "at odds" about for one, but also I'm pretty sure the most recent game we were in together was Chrono Trigger where I literally got Umlaut mislimmed as Town because I pulled a poorly thought out fake Cop gambit out of my ass, so to hear that it's weird he isn't nodding along with me is... well, a bit weird.

We were "at odds" because I misread or misremembered your earlier post as having a strong scumread on Bingle that didn't make sense to me. I'll need to go back to that game because I do remember it, but I remember even then going, "Damn, I guess he's scum even though I don't see it at all in his play..." and being more annoyed than surprised to find it was a gambit.

Okay, I found the game, it was Open 875. I remember we were pretty in sync (though wrong) on Ranger:

I really think you all should listen to what Radical Rat is saying about Ranger. I would reiterate it but they've already put it as well as it can be put. Nothing about her play today is pro-town.

I might be overestimating just how in sync we were in general because the Ranger question ended up being most of what I was talking and thinking about in the game.

My reaction when you revealed you had fakeclaimed after I voted you:

Goddammit RR, why can't you just 1v1 me like a normal person

I'm pretty sure you're just full of shit but now I have to actually think about whether you as town would really try something like this. Why would you do this to me.

This pretty much indicates what it sounds like, I believed you were scum because that was the most parsimonious explanation for your using a mechanically incoherent gambit to get me yeeted, even though I didn't see much in general to indicate scumminess at that point.

(That game is also a good resource for confirming that I believe trying to add nuance to simple ideas like "vote the person who's done fuck-all this game" is usually a mistake; I'm

still

mad that KawaiiKame survived that game as scum with less than half as many posts as the mod)

[Umlaut]

My last drink was rum, not whiskey -- I mix really good daiquiris (the classic sour cocktail served up, not the super-sweet slushy thing). I hope we're still friends, Drew.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Doctor Drew

I am landing here again. Or sheep.

Umlaut I will settle on, but the last few posts have the Town scent on them, so I don't prefer him.

I will join you on sheep, give me the elevator pitch on Drew if you want me to join you there because if I ever saw it yesterday I completely forgot what it was.

[Umlaut]

Does scum!Drew really post ideas as tinfoil-hat as that "Invisibility trying to signal" theory?

[Umlaut]

I'll think on it.

[Umlaut]

Oh derp, yeah why would scum!Firebringer IC hunt and then shoot anyone but Don last night. I guess FB pretty much clear then.

VOTE: Merlyn

I could do this, I've been sort of gambler's-fallacying myself here since Merlyn was scum in our last/first game together but that's not actually a good reason not to vote her. Looking back at her d1 I am seeing a really likable and reasonable tone combined with not much actual contribution or hard reads. Not as convinced as FB but it's a good wagon.

[Umlaut]

Good god someone unvote merlyn please.

Merlyn is literally in your elim list, what's the problem?

[Umlaut]

I dunno

if merlyn is wolf, she's about to lose the game. so she desperately needs to like, pick a counterwagon, try to kickstart it, and hope it somehow works. does she really end her big post with a vote on firebringer? there must be other choices that are more likely to bring success

This post is very town unless the remaining team is just {sheep, Merlyn}.

I was going to say this was a really insightful point in Merlyn's favor and one that Sheep didn't have to make if he was scum; he could have made up reasons to be on another wagon while letting Merlyn happen. But he did have to make this point if Merlyn is his buddy, so I'll need to consider whether I believe that. On first thought I don't find it impossible, but this is interesting enough for me to

UNVOTE: Merlyn

and do some reading/thinking.

[Umlaut]

I dunno

if merlyn is wolf, she's about to lose the game. so she desperately needs to like, pick a counterwagon, try to kickstart it, and hope it somehow works. does she really end her big post with a vote on firebringer? there must be other choices that are more likely to bring success

i don't find meryln lack of interest in this game resolution to be that indicative of alignment right now.

like you could easily turn this around into town meryln is about to mislimmed, why isn't she trying harder to push the person she thinks is scum pushing her?

Like its a half hearted attempt either way the only reason this is considered AI is that town!meryln doesn't auto lose if gets elimmed her and i don't think meryln has been that invested for this to be indicative

I've seen scum!Merlyn and she is invested in winning the game, particularly when the going gets tough. I haven't actually played with town!Merlyn but I could believe this is alignment-indicative.

In any case I think this is still a good for Sheep provided Merlyn is town, though, whether or not you buy the argument itself.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: osuka

[Umlaut]

Don-FB interaction is just making me not want to play tbh

[Umlaut]

Osuka flip was disappointing, not that I had much confidence in it but I didn't/don't have much confidence in my own read of the game either so it could have gone either way for me.

Kind of annoying that I've talked myself into believing Sheep is town and thereby waived my right to omgus him.

[Umlaut]

An annoying thing about this setup is that pre-flip associatives are essentially the only kind of associatives we can. So, even though they're not great, we should maybe try thinking about them anyway, which I see people are in fact doing.

In a previous game I played with Bingle they explicitly went through all possible scum teams and how plausible they were on Day 1, which was feasible in that setup (9p Coalition after the coalition had failed). It was well reasoned and thorough and in fact did pick out the actual scumteam (which I was on) as highly plausible. In fact I was so impressed with it that I shot them that night.

Here we have, what, 36 possible teams to consider? Ew, I'm not doing all that. But maybe we can distribute the work. If everyone looks into eight possible pairs (none of which include themselves), we can cover every pair twice which is as much assurance as we can get that we aren't getting a purely biased outlook.

At this point I have nerd-sniped myself with the problem of how to assign this work in a clean way that is simple enough to be above suspicion of bias; I think I have an idea of how to solve it but need to play with it a bit.

[Umlaut]

kind of a fun discrete math problem actually

[Umlaut]

At this point I have nerd-sniped myself with the problem of how to assign this work in a clean way that is simple enough to be above suspicion of bias; I think I have an idea of how to solve it but need to play with it a bit.

I solved it, so much for staying on task at work today lol

Spoiler: Math nerdery

• Number the living players from 0-8 in some canonical order, here playerlist order; these will henceforth be treated as integers modulo 9 (so 8 + 1 = 0, 7 + 3 = 1, etc.) This means Invisibility is player #0, Ausuka is player #1, and so on.
  
• Given a pair of players, represent it as {
  m
  ,
  n
  }, ordering so that the "upward distance" from
  m
  to
  n
  (the least possible number of 1 so that
  m
  + 1 + ... + 1 =
  n
  ) is minimized, or equivalently is strictly less than 5.
  
• Assign this pair to be investigated by players
  m
  − 1 and
  n
  + 1, which are guaranteed to be distinct from one another and from
  m
  and
  n
  .

This solution also has the nice property that every player investigates every other as part of at least one possible team.

Here are the assignments; feel free to verify them using the above math nerdery if you're up to it.

Player	Assigned teams
Invisibility	{Firebringer, Bingle}; {Ausuka, sheepsaysmeep}; {Ausuka, Doctor Drew}; {Radical Rat, Bingle}; {Ausuka, Firebringer}; {Umlaut, Bingle}; {Ausuka, Merlyn}; {sheepsaysmeep, Bingle}
Ausuka	{Doctor Drew, Merlyn}; {Invisibility, Umlaut}; {Doctor Drew, sheepsaysmeep}; {Doctor Drew, Firebringer}; {Invisibility, Radical Rat}; {Invisibility, sheepsaysmeep}; {Doctor Drew, Radical Rat}; {Invisibility, Bingle}
Doctor Drew	{Merlyn, sheepsaysmeep}; {Ausuka, Umlaut}; {Invisibility, Ausuka}; {Merlyn, Umlaut}; {Merlyn, Firebringer}; {Ausuka, Radical Rat}; {Merlyn, Radical Rat}; {Ausuka, Bingle}
Merlyn	{Firebringer, Bingle}; {Firebringer, sheepsaysmeep}; {Doctor Drew, Bingle}; {Ausuka, Doctor Drew}; {Invisibility, Doctor Drew}; {Firebringer, Radical Rat}; {Doctor Drew, Umlaut}; {Firebringer, Umlaut}
Firebringer	{Doctor Drew, Merlyn}; {sheepsaysmeep, Umlaut}; {Merlyn, Bingle}; {Invisibility, Merlyn}; {sheepsaysmeep, Radical Rat}; {Ausuka, Merlyn}; {Invisibility, sheepsaysmeep}; {sheepsaysmeep, Bingle}
sheepsaysmeep	{Radical Rat, Umlaut}; {Radical Rat, Bingle}; {Doctor Drew, Firebringer}; {Ausuka, Firebringer}; {Invisibility, Firebringer}; {Merlyn, Firebringer}; {Ausuka, Radical Rat}; {Invisibility, Radical Rat}
Radical Rat	{Firebringer, sheepsaysmeep}; {Ausuka, sheepsaysmeep}; {Invisibility, Umlaut}; {Doctor Drew, sheepsaysmeep}; {Merlyn, sheepsaysmeep}; {Doctor Drew, Umlaut}; {Ausuka, Umlaut}; {Umlaut, Bingle}
Umlaut	{Doctor Drew, Bingle}; {Firebringer, Radical Rat}; {Merlyn, Bingle}; {sheepsaysmeep, Radical Rat}; {Merlyn, Radical Rat}; {Doctor Drew, Radical Rat}; {Ausuka, Bingle}; {Invisibility, Bingle}
Bingle	{Radical Rat, Umlaut}; {Invisibility, Doctor Drew}; {sheepsaysmeep, Umlaut}; {Invisibility, Ausuka}; {Invisibility, Firebringer}; {Merlyn, Umlaut}; {Invisibility, Merlyn}; {Firebringer, Umlaut}

If we think this is a good idea in general then these should be the assignments. People can of course talk about other teams besides the ones they are assigned but should still do those eight.

[Umlaut]

I actually kind of hate the teams I was assigned but who am I to argue with the Algorithm

[Umlaut]

Actually a much simpler formulation of the same rule is that, treating the list above as cyclic, everyone looks into

• the player above them, paired with each of the four players above that; and
  
• the player below them, paired with each of the four players below that.

It should be easy enough to confirm that that's what you were assigned in the above table.

[Umlaut]

I really like this idea, I'm in. I'm gonna let the math champs confirm what list each of us should do before I start

Maybe Merlyn is just scum? I'm not sure I even like this idea and I'm the one who thought of it (but is now dreading actually doing all this homework).

[Umlaut]

I just like being told what to do

Have to admit I really like this response though. I know townreading flippancy is facile but it's hard to just turn off.

[Umlaut]

ugh, will post later tonight, behind on work stuff rn

I could vote Merlyn, as pointed out my argument that she's town based on what Sheep is doing is pretty shaky, but will also do the pair-analysis thing first.

[Umlaut]

Prodge again blah

My head is too far out of this game and getting it back in is going to be work. I hate doing work.

VOTE: Merlyn to make it "not a prodge"

[Umlaut]

Giving each Mafia team an N0 cop shot wouldn't be a bad idea, but I'm happy the good guys won (even if I don't get to count the win myself)!