~~Mini 1216: S.M.H. (A.S.N.P.T.) Mafia GAME OVER!!! WOOO~~

[Empking]

Lets massclaim quickly before it breaks the flow.

[Empking]

1. Ben may have slipped.
2. We can keep scum from fakeclaiming.
3. We can narrow down the field of who might be scum a huge amount.
4. We might be able to synergise the roles.

[Empking]

Oui

It kind of sucked.

[Empking]

Mafia and and Jam

[Empking]

Sorry. I didn't even find Mafia scummy. I mixed them and tram up.

[Empking]

Train

[Empking]

Team

[Empking]

I've changed my read on jam but to answer your points, it's called outguessing the mod. I think we could do it. Plus I doubt scum will claim a PR.

[Empking]

I think a Ben lynch would give us much more information, though.

Ben is town though.

[Empking]

I think a Ben lynch would give us much more information, though.

Ben is town though.

why?

My back and forth with him teklls mer that he's honestly interested in scumhunting and finding scum.

[Empking]

What? I never mentioned meta.

[Empking]

Phew.... I read train and thought I was fucking retarded.

That was way tougher than it needed to be.

Only town would post this. It would have been easy activity (rather than "tough") otherwise.

[Empking]

Easy activity?

Poating that doesn't take effort but isn't active lurking.

[Empking]

Empking

how would you define your scum game?

Getting by and trying to get to endgame as quick as possible.

[Empking]

How accurate am I in my assement that you are effing annoying to get to contribute and commit to things as scum??

Pretty accurate

[Empking]

Vote: HH

[Empking]

Rolefishing is called fishing because it requires subtlety - Words to live by.

(Yeah, those posts are pretty funny when you put them together.)

[Empking]

Ok maybe you were.. erm.. rolesteamrolling?

In this situation that's not a scumtell though. The odds are any player we run up will claim a PR so we might as well get them out their so we can make better judgements holistically.

[Empking]

Also, mass claim

quickly

? Why? At that point we didnt have a time limit.

Nobody likes stalled games. Plus we still have the ability to CC it'll just happen during the massclaim.

[Empking]

Also, mass claim

quickly

? Why? At that point we didnt have a time limit.

Nobody likes stalled games. Plus we still have the ability to CC it'll just happen during the massclaim.

Yeah, less effectively. Especially if scum CC last. They already see whos claimed what. Also, they could claim VT and look like every other player so i dont see any advantage for town, only scum.

If they all claim VT then we'll have three confirmed town and scum in a position where they can't claim something to avoid the lynch.

[Empking]

Also, mass claim

quickly

? Why? At that point we didnt have a time limit.

Nobody likes stalled games. Plus we still have the ability to CC it'll just happen during the massclaim.

Yeah, less effectively. Especially if scum CC last. They already see whos claimed what. Also, they could claim VT and look like every other player so i dont see any advantage for town, only scum.

If they all claim VT then we'll have three confirmed town and scum in a position where they can't claim something to avoid the lynch.

Urm.. they'll know who the PRs are, and they could claim VT and we'd learn nothing because we dont know who else is town, except for the PRs. Who'd be killed btw.
Ive seen hammers fail when scum claims VT. Hell, i did it in my first game. I have to disagree. Unless im misunderstanding some mechanic.

That won't work if they claim it in massclaim.

Unvote

[Empking]

Town knows 4&1 are town. This means their odds of lynching scum are greatly increased.

[Empking]

Empking, your vote will not go unnoticed. Explain.

I'm not voting.

[Empking]

Empking, your vote will not go unnoticed. Explain.

I'm not voting.

Your last vote.

Didn't have a town read on him.

[Empking]

Why not?

And you do now? Why?

He seems to genuinely think massclaim is anti-town and is arguing against it.

[Empking]

Couldn't you see that coming from scum?

He's not confirmed town but I think he thinks he's making a pro-town/anti-scum action. That's a town tell.

[Empking]

Scumreads, Empking?

You and Lurc, I guess. This is why MC is so important and would be so useful. There are no obv-scum.

[Empking]

Ooh 8(?) posts in a 24 hour period. Looks like we should massclaim.

[Empking]

Empking can you expand a bit about how it works I am new to forum mafia and as shown earlier in this thread thought it seemed like rolefishing at first. Your post in 396 made sense though about increasing odds. With how slow the game has got I am open to it being beneficial as we all have our scumspects and don't seem to have a town majority.

Everybody claims their roles (X claims who picks Y to go second who picks Z...). We then analyze those roles to see if we've caught any scum or if we've confirmed any innocents. We then lynch based on that new information (plus previous information garnered.)

[Empking]

I'm lynching essentially at random. The pool isn't narrowed down enough. Massclaim will narrow it down.

[Empking]

HH, I guess.

The odds of us having two power roles and scum knowing that enough to take advantage of it is very low.

[Empking]

Please for the lovbe of all that is good can we massclaim or are we going to let the scum rush us to a deadline lynch on a townie. That seems to be our only options to me.

[Empking]

Vote: HH

[Empking]

Pick somebody else to claim.

[Empking]

VT

Don.

[Empking]

Oh yeah.

Unvote

[Empking]

No.

Yes

Vote: Don

[Empking]

Somebody, threaten to hammer.

[Empking]

Ben: Pretty please can you get Don to claim.

[Empking]

back. Before joining this nice dance I need DJ to explain why he FoS's me.

also: please tell me what questions I haven't answered and I will.

Empking, there's 2 options here. DJ is scum or a PR. Lucronis is confscum.

and I was the one who was fishing, right? Any town player would just keep his mouth shut about DJ's refusal to claim, which, btw, is perfectly comprehensible since no one agreed on a mc. HH was fooled(?) by empking and after claiming at L-1 he started a popcorn no one agreed to do.

DJ's refusal to claim has totally outted himself as scum.

[Empking]

MEMO: at this point, it is impossible for ben and captain to be scum together, because they are both voting lurco, and no one else is. It would be a suicidal pattern, so only one (or none) can be scum.

WIFOM (I think your overstressing the ceratainty)

and still I cannot solve the matrix :-/

Vote DJ.

[Empking]

MEMO: at this point, it is unlikely for ben and captain to be scum together, because they are both voting lurco, and no one else is. It would be a suicidal pattern, so only one (or none) can be scum.

^better analysis

[Empking]

certainty hardly ever exists, and you know it, since you play on this site since 2008. And you also know that extremely highly probabilities are what we use to proceed in the game.

You are posting filler.

No I'm posting what you asked me to.

If we're not massclaiming I'm cool with lynching DJ.

[Empking]

then please comment his claim.

Its an obvious scum claim from someone who doesn't want to get counterclaimed.

[Empking]

^Bingo Bango

Then revote DJ?

[Empking]

Not sure how common Nurse/Deputy roles are in these mini's. Can anyone with more experience shed light on that?

TYhey're whitelisted but I've never seen them before. Nurse had a famous rant against it in MD though.

[Empking]

Corporal here
I don't like DJ's claim. I'm thinking it's a sneaky attempt a rolefishing.
Other's thoughts on this?

I don't follow the logic.

[Empking]

@Emp: Whitelisted? I'm not familiar with the term.

They're allowed in Normal Games unconditionally.
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Normal_Game

[Empking]

Search for Nurse here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 53&t=15732

[Empking]

emp, your presenting wifom and the only way to refute it is with the same. vt is a claim that "wouldn't get counter claimed" and fits the same playstyle i referenced(i.e. draw the nk/protect gambit). so why nurse over vt?

People don't want to lynch a claimed power role.

[Empking]

Haha. True. But thats not what you said. :/

I didn't think it needed to be said.

[Empking]

It still doesnt invalidate my response to your original statement. And considering I am at L-2 with a player threatening to hammer, your new argument doesnt hold much water. So bringing up a new argument to try and invalidate my response yo your initial argument is underhanded. And the "why not claim a more useful or common pr" argument still stands anyway. But whatever. Im in the car now so im not going to have time for this back and forth.

You don't want to be counterclaimed because you wanted to survive.

[Empking]

Lolz. Vt accomplishes the same end. Try doing something useful.

No it doesn't.

[Empking]

unvote

Your lack of logical progress is noted.

you are combining my responses with arguments they are not in response to.

More when im home.

What?

[Empking]

vote benmage

You were already doing it.

[Empking]

Benmage (3):

don_johnson,

Lurconis, Christine,

[Empking]

I'm pretty sure that Don and JAM are the scum. Don for clearly false claiming (Lew's death confirms that to everyone else, right). JAM for being on the Don wagon (yeah I can eliminate one more suspect than y'all.)

Vote: DJ

[Empking]

Oh unless any investigator has some useful info we should probably NL.

[Empking]

lolz. please expand on this one. how does the confirmation of a second killing faction "confirm" my claim as false?

"Second killing faction"?

Whaty do you think the set up is? That's why your role is nonsense.

[Empking]

are you not familiar with how no lynch is done? no discussion.

That's no even close to accurate.

DJ: Give me a guess at the set up.

[Empking]

Unvote
Vote:Jam

[Empking]

VT Christine

[Empking]

VT?

Is this you claiming?

[Empking]

Its possible I was wrong about Don.

Right about Jam though.

[Empking]

He was saying he was a vt and then said christine indicating you should claim next

Yeah

[Empking]

and

vote: jamftw

i hope you guys see now how an early massclaim had the potential to neuter us.

I don't.

[Empking]

lol. of course you don't. both investigative roles are double weak(odd/even and not cop). scum would have had a road map to victory. i don't see any way that jam is town here, which means he's either a jk or a rb. early mass claim lets scum block the active power role and kill the protective twice in a row. its basic math i think. but whatevz. live in your bubble. serious question: how old are you?

Pretend we lynched you instead of Ben yesterday. We would have lost last night in that case. Yes in this particular situation we got lucky and lynched a scumbag. You can't call your way better just because of the base case situation.

If we mass claimed yesterday and presuming everyone claimed the same thing then we'd've lynched the roleblocker yesterday (rather than today) and then be in the same situation we're in now just swapping a goon for the obvious RB. You honestly don't think that's better? Really?

[Empking]

Let's see an example.

Starting from yesterday.

Jam is lynched.
Doc killed.
Hellhound killed.

Benmage lynched.
Tracker tracks.
You're killed.

We lynch scum.

Basically 100% victory if we had mass claimed yesterday. That's disastorous to you?

Not massclaiming yesterday only gives us odds of winning equal to the odds of not lynching you yesterday.

My way is better.

[Empking]

only in a vaccuum. we're in the real world. jam lynch yesterday is not guaranteed, nor is his claim. benmage lynch is also not guaranteed. but if you want to go on thinking that way i don't have an issue with it. pretty much anyone can say "well if everything happened perfectly, then my plan would have worked 100%." i bow to your incredible wisdom.

Oh please.

I'm presuming
1. JAM claimsd the same thing both days. This is the only valid assumption to make unless Jam says otherwise.
2. That the odds of lynching Ben are 1-[odds of lynching you]
3. That after knowing all the roles the odds of lynching you are around 0.

ASll of them are the only presumptions you can make.

Do you disagree that we would be in a terrible position/already lost if we had lynched you yesterday?

[Empking]

Ch: Don't target Don.

Don: OK, what is reasonable to think Jam would claim?
And other than you and Ben who else was up for the chop?

[Empking]

VOTE: jam

l-1

That's a lynch isn't it?

[Empking]

Who are we lynching?

[Empking]

I'm up for a Ch lynch, TBH.

[Empking]

Vote: Christine