Prozacs Basic Theme 3 - GAME OVER


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Post Post #960 (isolation #0) » Fri Sep 23, 2011 2:52 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

sup Fate. Who are we killing?
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Post Post #962 (isolation #1) » Fri Sep 23, 2011 3:05 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Any other claims I should know about?
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Post Post #964 (isolation #2) » Fri Sep 23, 2011 3:11 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

He meant "alive", obviously.
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Post Post #966 (isolation #3) » Fri Sep 23, 2011 3:13 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Mass claim anyone?
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Post Post #969 (isolation #4) » Fri Sep 23, 2011 3:55 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Yea I don't feel like lynching Bunny.
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Post Post #970 (isolation #5) » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:24 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

V/LA the next 2 days or so.
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Post Post #974 (isolation #6) » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:29 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Bad vote. Calling it now.
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #7) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:07 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Vote: Bunnylover


The complete lack of a defense supports the theory that bunny had a lynch immunity, and so wasn't really worried about defending herself. Also fits with the claim timing.
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Post Post #1129 (isolation #8) » Tue Sep 27, 2011 6:52 am

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I don't see the point in leaving all 3 of them alive. Better some concrete information that living without knowing.
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Post Post #1134 (isolation #9) » Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:02 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1130, Fate wrote:So you're seriously in the "lynch the confirmed townies" camp MoS?

What the fuck is this


Only one of them, not all of them.
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Post Post #1162 (isolation #10) » Wed Sep 28, 2011 3:07 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

What Banshee said.
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Post Post #1164 (isolation #11) » Wed Sep 28, 2011 3:15 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

If he thought you were scum, he'd be voting you, DX.
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Post Post #1166 (isolation #12) » Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:02 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

I know. You're suggesting he *knows* you're town. *shrug*, I probably would have phrased it the same way, except I know better than to open myself up like that. Doesn't change the fact that I'm pretty sure you're a mislynch.
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Post Post #1212 (isolation #13) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:50 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Sooooo myk, want to explain why Fate isn't a mason?
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Post Post #1231 (isolation #14) » Sat Oct 01, 2011 3:20 pm

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I don't really see what scum would think they'd gain by revealing how many of them are left...
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #15) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 11:39 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Wait, so it's scummy to have distrusted a fake mason claim? Lawl...
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Post Post #1247 (isolation #16) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 12:10 pm

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I didn't say Fate was town, myk. I've never seen a townsperson fakeclaim mason. I'm saying I can read Fate to tell when he's lying, and his mason claim didn't feel right. Not to mention that I'm not even saying you're scum.

Now you're trying to claim that I'm scummy for thinking Fate was scum because he was lying. That doesn't even make sense.

Also, how the hell can you claim I'm lurking? I replaced in 10 days ago and I've made 17 posts since then. That's including two game nights during which there was no posting, so my activity has been better than 2 posts a day.

Now get a grip and stop being an idiot, because you're seriously making yourself look retarded.
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Post Post #1253 (isolation #17) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 3:31 pm

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I don't like chkflip's vote. I'd like him to explain why a scum-myk would kill Fate and expose the mason claim as a fake.
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Post Post #1255 (isolation #18) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 5:30 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

myk was more confirmed town with Fate alive than with Fate dead. I'm not saying that myk is cleared town, but certainly shouldn't be today's lynch, not when Bunny can investigate.
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Post Post #1261 (isolation #19) » Mon Oct 03, 2011 11:46 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

After UPick I don't know why you'd want to trust Fate's instincts, Katsuki. =P
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Post Post #1282 (isolation #20) » Tue Oct 04, 2011 12:42 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1277, Banshee wrote:I'm going to float a theory, and those with more experience with Fate can tell me how likely they think it is.

We know now that Fate was a governor. That means he did not have to claim mason buddies with Mykonian in order to save Myko's life. He could have simply overruled the lynch if he felt it was a bad lynch, which in fact he did for Bunnylover. He had two options (three, if you count ignoring the lynch and just letting it happen). In one case, he chose claiming mason buddies; in the other, he chose governor.

Well, obviously he couldn't claim mason buddies with Bunnylover, so that's one explanation of sorts. But I'm wondering if Fate had another plan in mind.

If Fate thought Mykonian was scum, then he might have claimed mason with Mykonian knowing that Mykonian knew his meta and, even as town, would not reject this claim. It would be a safe move for Fate and might keep him alive longer, since scum would be reluctant to kill him and thus open up Mykonian to question about the mason claim.

SO, if Fate tried to claim mason with Myko because he thought Myko was scum in lieu of using the governor pardon on him, then I don't think Myko would have allowed him to be killed and to confirm that. Fate had shown no signs of backing down from his mason claim or of attacking Myko. So why would Myko-scum allow his security to be killed?

My answer is, he wouldn't. So, if Mykonian is scum, you have to believe that Fate was more dangerous to him alive than dead. That means that Fate was zeroing in on something. If this is the theory being floated by those on the Myko-is-scum lynching committee, I want some evidence of what Fate was on to that made Mykonian so nervous he was willing to kill his alibi. Without that, there's no smoking gun to lynch Myko.

Mykonian is not confirmed town. There are no confirmed townies, not me, not Bunnylover, not Myko, no one. But Myko is not the most likely scum and he's surely not the lynch for today.

Corrections on my logic are requested and welcome.


This makes absolutely no sense. If Fate thought Mykonian was scum, why put out a random mason claim gambit that saved Myk from being lynched? If Fate thought Myk was scum, the best option was to let the lynch go through. It is obvious that Fate thought Myk was town, that's not even something that should be under debate.
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Post Post #1284 (isolation #21) » Tue Oct 04, 2011 2:12 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Fate wouldn't want to waste his governor ability when he felt he could gambit to keep Myk alive.
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #22) » Tue Oct 04, 2011 2:28 pm

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Uhh...have you ever played with a governor before, Banshee? The ability to stop a lynch EVERY day is ridiculously broken and puts the entire game in the hands of a single player. This isn't Kingmaker or Consulmaker, this is a basic theme game. At best he might have had two shots, but I'm guessing the ability could only be used once.
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Post Post #1298 (isolation #23) » Wed Oct 05, 2011 1:25 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1291, mykonian wrote:
vote MoS


I mean, what did he add in those last posts? "kat would you trust fate after that and that?" and three theory posts. He's avoiding to post reads. And with scooby's history, MoS is just scum.


LMAO, are you so dense that you require people to make fucking lists for you to realize they're posting reads?

I've already defended you and attacked chkflip. I clearly have no interest in the Jakwagon.

Read between the lines, dumbass.
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Post Post #1302 (isolation #24) » Wed Oct 05, 2011 2:00 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

You're kidding me, right?
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Post Post #1306 (isolation #25) » Wed Oct 05, 2011 3:41 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

@myk: Banshee was basing a lot of his "opinion" and "train of thought" on the assumption that Governor could be used every day. It was important to break him of that notion. (For the record, governor by definition is generally a one-shot role, and I don't think I've ever seen it labeled as one-shot upon death.)

In post 1303, Banshee wrote:@Mastermind of Sin:

Why do you have no interest in the Jakalope wagon? Do you think he's town? What do you think of the case on him (not the lurker case, but the complete turnaround in his reads on me depending on whether or not he thought I was likely to be lynched or not)?

Do you think Bunnylover is likely to be scum? If she is lynched/nightkilled and flips scum, does that make you more suspicious of Dramonic, or does he remain at the same level?

My apologies if you've answered this, but who is your top scum suspect at the moment, and why aren't you voting him or her?

@Mykonian:
I think MoS was mostly answering me and discussing my reads in those posts; therefore if you think they're pointless I think I'm mostly to blame there.


I read Jakalope as inexperienced town. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

I'm 50/50 on Bunny being scum, and I don't think I can draw conclusions about dram's connection to bunny at this time. There isn't nearly enough evidence.

I don't have a top scum suspect. I'm waiting for something worthwhile to occur.
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Post Post #1310 (isolation #26) » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:45 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

I hate that chkflip is agreeing with me, if only because his vote on myk is so terrible right now.

I like StrangerCoug for scum. I didn't even know he was in the game until I checked the playerlist just now. A quick look at his ISO reveals that he's on the Jakwagon which is bad, and he tried to set up a one-two mislynch on DavidX and Bunny yesterday with this post:

In post 1159, StrangerCoug wrote:David Xanatos is our best option here. I'm pretty sure he and Bunnylover are of opposing alignments and the way he's dealing with the claimed living cop and the masons points toward him being scum.


I'm also suspecting a possible SC/Bunny scumteam, because he made the comment above and then didn't even bother following it up the next day after David came up town. He just used it to build momentum on the DavidX lynch and then dropped it.

Either way, though, SC's actions regarding David/Bunny are scummy, regardless of Bunny's alignment. He also conveniently had an early vote on xvart coming out of RVS, only to back off and wagon Blackberry, myk, Katsuki, and myself until "calling" the hammer vote on xvart without ever addressing suspicion for him since his earlier vote (which had tenuous reasoning to begin with). Looks like someone who wanted to create distance early and then tried to get town cred for a hammer when it was clear his buddy was going to get lynched.

This is a good lynch.
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Post Post #1314 (isolation #27) » Thu Oct 06, 2011 5:21 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Whoops, meant to tack a vote onto my last post, obviously.

Vote: StrangerCoug


No, I haven't read anything from before I replaced in (except for StrangerCoug's ISO last night).
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Post Post #1323 (isolation #28) » Thu Oct 06, 2011 12:48 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

StrangerCoug, it's a fallacy for you to try to tie your own alignment to Bunny's like that. It's completely illogical to try to isolate Bunny's own alignment based on your actions, since yours are scummy regardless of Bunny's.
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Post Post #1334 (isolation #29) » Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:27 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1326, StrangerCoug wrote:
In post 1323, Mastermind of Sin wrote:StrangerCoug, it's a fallacy for you to try to tie your own alignment to Bunny's like that. It's completely illogical to try to isolate Bunny's own alignment based on your actions, since yours are scummy regardless of Bunny's.

I did not say or imply that Bunnylover and I necessarily are the same alignment—she's not confirmed to me, I'm not confirmed to her, and for me to suggest anything indicating otherwise is absurd. You presented us with two conflicting theories. Since this provides you with a backup if you're wrong, it's fine, but I was trying to get at what alignment you think Bunnylover is. Assuming I am scum, then if Bunnylover is town, then I tried to get her mislynched according to you, and if she is scum then you think she is by buddy. (She could also be a third party, but your posts don't say anything about you thinking that, so I'm ignoring it for the purposes of this argument.)


That's not even relevant, however, because my read on Bunnylover isn't based on your actions, nor is there a need for a "backup" theory. I'm not suggesting we kill Bunny to find out your alignment. I'm suggesting we kill you and that it has nothing to do with Bunny. As previously stated, my read on Bunny is 50/50 right now, which is exactly why it doesn't matter which theory is correct because in both instances you are scum.
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Post Post #1366 (isolation #30) » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:14 pm

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chkflip, if you think lynching dead weight is a bad decision, why did you vote to lynch thejak? He was obviously VI, not scum. We should have been going after people like StrangerCoug.

Unfortunately, I have no idea why Banshee was killed. A quick look through his ISO shows that he had virtually no scumreads other than being on thejak's wagon, so it wasn't pressure that caused his death. Perhaps they had a power role read on him.

3. StrangerCoug - scum
8. Katsuki - neutral
9. chkflip - neutral leaning scum
11. Nocmen - neutral leaning scum
12. Dramonic - neutral leaning scum
17. Bunnylover - neutral leaning town
19. Mykonian - probably town


So not a lot of information to be had after a quick ISO of most players. You guys are all playing relatively shitty across the board, unfortunately. If I remember correctly, we have claims from Nocmen and Bunnylover, right? We should probably consider mass claim today.

Tactic #2, let's look at xvart:

Votes Bunnylover
Votes Nocmen
Votes Bogre
Votes Katsuki
Reads on people wagoning him:
Fate - running up wagons on people he doesn't think is scum just to get a claim
Reck - no reasons, no real contributions
Bunnylover - lol at this vote
jackalope - lol at this vote, too
katsuki - scum
ellibereth - only seems to care about getting people to claim


Not a lot of info here, so let's look at Ellibereth:

Votes no lynch
Calls for Bunny claim, then Stranger
Calls for Noc claim then votes
unvotes
Calls for Katsuki claim
Calls for Bogre claim
Votes stranger
Votes Bogre
Votes CSL/chkflip
Votes xvart
Votes bunny
Posts a VC "Analysis" with no conclusions
Votes David

Not a lot here either, although the "pressure" on Stranger without any real reasoning stands out as possible distancing, especially since Elli's vote was just kinda parked on Stranger until it was time for him to get on the lynch wagon for that day.

Even though I rarely resort to this as a scumhunting tactic, I don't feel like I have a good read on anyone especially as a replacement myself, so let's look at the voting patterns to see if anything important comes up (all replacements have been renamed to their current player for clarity):

Day 1
Nocmen - 8 -
Blackberry
,
Reck
, chkflip, myko,
Fate
,
TheJackalope
, Katsuki,
Banshee

Bogre
- 10 -
Flameaxe
,
Fate
,
TheJackalope
,
David
,
Blackberry
,
Elli
, myko,
Trekkers
,
xvart
, Bunnylover

Day 2
myko - 3 - nocmen, katsuki, MoS
Katsuki - 8 -
Fate
,
David
, chkflip, Stranger,
Reck
,
Oman
, Nocmen,
xvart

xvart
- 9 -
Fate
,
Reck
, Bunnylover,
TheJackalope
, katsuki,
Ellibereth
, MoS, dramonic, chkflip

Day 3
dramonic - 5 - MoS, Nocmen, mykonian,
TheJackalope
, StrangerCoug
Bunny - 7 -
Fate
, Katsuki, chkflip,
Oman
,
Elli
,
TheJackalope
,
David

Day 4
Bunny - 4 - Stranger, dram, nocmen, mos
Banshee
- 4 -
Fate
, myko, bunny,
TheJackalope

David
- 6 -
Fate
, Nocmen,
TheJackalope
, StrangerCoug, Bunnylover, mykonian

Day 5
Katsuki - 3 - Bunnylover, mykonian,
TheJackalope

TheJackalope
- 6 - Nocmen, StrangerCoug, Katsuki,
Banshee
, chkflp, mykonian


Let's focus more on the wagons of people who are dead:

Bogre wagon was 6 town, 2 scum, plus myko and Bunny.
xvart wagon was 3 town, 1 scum, plus Bunny, katsuki, MoS, dram, and chkflip.
Banshee wagon was 2 town plus myko and Bunny
David wagon was 2 town plus Nocmen, Stranger, Bunny, and myko
TheJackalope wagon was 1 town plus Nocmen, Stranger, Katsuki, chkflip, and myko

For reference, here's the wagons on living players:

Nocmen wagon was 5 town plus chkflip, myko, and Katsuki.
myko wagon was Nocmen, Katsuki, and MoS
Katsuki wagon #1 was 4 town, 1 scum, plus chkflip, Stranger, and Nocmen.
dram wagon was 1 town plus MoS, Nocmen, myko, and Stranger
Bunny wagon #1 was 4 town, 1 scum, plus Katsuki and chkflip
Bunny wagon #2 was Stranger, dram, nocmen, and MoS (ouch I feel bad being in the company of those 3)
Katsuki wagon #2 was 1 town plus myko and Bunny

So now let's look at the living player's voting patterns:
Disclaimer: I'm not doing wagon analysis on myself, but someone else is more than willing to use the data above to look at my/scooby's patterns if they aren't yet convinced that I'm town. I'm putting this disclaimer here in good faith so that you know I'm not maliciously omitting myself from the results. Some of my conclusions may also apply to scooby's voting pattern, but since I know his/my alignment, that narrows the field for me to figure out which people exhibiting such behavior were actually possible scum.


3. StrangerCoug - On the David and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Katsuki #1, dram, and Bunny #2 wagons. Voted 4th, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 1st positions, respectively.
8. Katsuki - On the xvart and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Nocmen, myko, and Bunny #1 wagons. Voted 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 7th, and 2nd positions, respectively.
9. chkflip - On the xvart and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Nocmen, Katsuki #1, and Bunny #1 wagons. Voted 9th (Hammer), 5th, 3rd, 3rd, and 3rd positions, respectively.
11. Nocmen - On the David and Jackalope lynches, as well as the myko, dram, and Bunny #2 wagons. Voted 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd positions, respectively.
12. Dramonic - On the xvart lynch, as well as the Bunny #2 wagon. Voted 8th and 2nd positions, respectively.
17. Bunnylover - On the Bogre, xvart, and David lynches, as well as the Banshee and Katsuki #2 wagons. Voted 10th (Hammer), 3rd, 5th, 3rd, and 1st positions, respectively.
19. Mykonian - On the Bogre, David, and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Banshee, Nocmen, dram, and Katsuki #2 wagons. Voted 7th, 6th (Hammer), 6th (Hammer), 2nd, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd positions, respectively.

So let's try to draw some notable patterns and conclusions from this analysis:

3. Strangercoug was completely uninvolved in most of the early wagons throughout the game. Also did not take part in the xvart lynch.
8. Katsuki's voting patterns don't give me any real insight at this time.
9. chkflip was VERY late on the xvart lynch, but voted early and in an aggressive position on all the wagons that failed (3rd on all of them). Perfect positioning for scum not wanting to take responsibility for a mislynch (that would ideally go to the people who started the wagon).
11. Nocmen has voted aggressively on all of his wagons, and was not on the xvart lynch.
12. Dramonic has stayed off pretty much all of the wagons so far this game, except for being late to the xvart wagon and early to the Bunny wagon (understandable before Fate was revealed as governor).
17. Bunny has been on a lot of wagons, as also has been seen voting very similarly to myko this game. The early positioning on the xvart wagon (given that the other 3 came up town) suggests a possible bussing attempt, distancing by getting in on the wagon early and sheeping Fate.
19. mykonian has been wagoning almost indiscriminately this game, which begs the question of why he wasn't on the xvart lynch. Also conspicuously late voting on all the lynches, but early and aggressive voting on the other wagons.

Based on the above conclusions, I'd reevaluate my reads as follows:

3. Stranger - probably scum
8. Katsuki - neutral leaning town
9. chkflip - probably scum
11. Nocmen - neutral leaning scum
12. Dramonic - neutral
17. Bunny - probably scum
19. Mykonian - neutral leaning scum


Obviously some of these people are just bad town players rather than scum, so I'm going to try to further look into possible scumgroups. With 20 players, we probably have 4-5 scum total, which means 2-3 remaining scum. Given that we had 2 kills on Nights 1, 2, and 4, we either have an SK or a Vig as the second killing element, or 2 mafias (unlikely, given the generic scum reveals so far). This means we're likely looking for 2 mafia and 1 SK, or 3 mafia (with a vig on the town side as a counter). The lack of kills on nights 3 and 5 makes me believe we might have a vig with a conscience, since an SK doesn't really have any reason to stop killing. That's not a hard conclusion, however.

Scumgroup 1: xvart, Elli, Stranger, chkflip, Nocmen


I like this group because Elli distanced from all four of them, and both Stranger/Nocmen did not take part in the xvart lynch, whereas Elli and chkflip were both late.

Scumgroup 2: xvart, Elli, Bunny, Mykonian, Dramonic


Elli also distanced from Bunny, and was in similar position on the governed lynch when compared to the xvart lynch. The Bogre lynch shows these 4 players as 4 of the last 5 votes, which is where scum want to be when they don't want to take credit for a lynch. Bunny's positioning on the xvart wagon also smells of distancing, and it's telling that myko did not sheep her "mason buddy" Fate on the Bunny wagon. Add to that the similar voting patterns between Bunny and myko this game. Dramonic has also worked very hard to stay off most of the wagons in this game, except for showing up just in time to be on the xvart lynch, so you could plug him in here. Not sure if he is the fifth person in this group, but you could probably plug in any one of the people from scumgroup 1 or put Dramonic up in group 1 somewhere.

Right now I don't see a lot of good scenarios where Katsuki is scum. That doesn't make Katsuki cleared, but he's doing a good job of changing up his play if he *is* scum. Possible SK? Maybe, but I'm not yet convinced we have one.

Sadly, this means that pretty much anyone alive right now could easily be scum with xvart and Elli. I'd like people to answer a few questions that will help clear the air:

1) Stranger, Nocmen, and myko: Why weren't you on the xvart wagon?
2) Stranger, Dramonic: Why have you been avoiding most of the wagons in this game? (For Stranger, the question applies more to the early days, rather than the last 2 or so)
3) chkflip: Explain the discrepancy between your xvart vote and your other wagoning.
4) Katsuki: Who do you believe the remaining scumgroup is?
5) Bunny, Myko: What are your reads on each other?
6) Bunny: Why did you believe xvart was scum?
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Post Post #1368 (isolation #31) » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:57 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Damn, just realized that chkflip is basically "in the clear" because he can't answer for CSL's voting patterns. That doesn't make his actions any less scummy, but it makes my question to him rather pointless.
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Post Post #1371 (isolation #32) » Tue Oct 11, 2011 3:50 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1369, Bunnylover wrote:@MoS:
Before my investigation of Fate, my read on Noc was scum just on the sole purpose that I believed Fate was claiming mason with a scumbuddy.


??? Does Not Compute. Fate claimed mason with myko, not Nocmen.

Currently, I am leaning scum on Myko. The way he attacked Reck and Dram, was not in a town motion for me. I haven't forgotten about that, especially since I have a confirm town on Dram. But, Myko seems to be doing a lot more work then a lot of our town flips.


Effort doesn't equal towniness. In fact, scum often put in more effort than town BECAUSE they are scum and are trying to look as townie as possible, whereas town don't usually worry about it. That's why it's a null tell. You have to read into the motivations of a player's actions rather than just stopping at "are they putting in effort?"

Its a stupid reason, but I believed that Fate was scum claiming mason. Just like in the last game, Fate bussed his other partner. So in this game, I believed that Fate was going to bus another one of his partners, and therefore I was confident that Xvart was going to flip scum.
I thought I had explained that a little after my vote :<.


I actually agreed that Fate's claim was suspect, which is why I not only refused to lynch you when I first replaced in but I also suggested lynching one of you/Fate/Myko the next day because that trio of claims didn't seem right to me.

Also, I wasn't in the game when the xvart happened, so I didn't know what reasons you had. I didn't have time to read that in-depth. That post took me about an hour as-is...
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Post Post #1373 (isolation #33) » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:13 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Chance of protown roleblocker + protown jailkeeper? Doubtful.
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Post Post #1377 (isolation #34) » Tue Oct 11, 2011 7:08 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

See Dating Game 2 where I as scum roleblocked a claimed vig who had said he was going to kill a townie, just to set up a situation where both the vig and the townie were lynch bait.

(Turns out the vig was an SK and he switched targets last second to try and kill my scumpartner, so that worked out well, but whatever.)

Point is, I can see a gambit where the scum leave you alive because they know they can block you.
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Post Post #1379 (isolation #35) » Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:33 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1378, mykonian wrote:
Lets not forget you. There was only one wagon scooby ended up with, and, hey, I'm missing my rocketwagon? He was on there too. Otherwise, apart from being at the end of the Elli wagon, scooby did very little other then filling the thread with useless rage.


No one forgot me.

In post 1366, Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Disclaimer: I'm not doing wagon analysis on myself, but someone else is more than willing to use the data above to look at my/scooby's patterns if they aren't yet convinced that I'm town. I'm putting this disclaimer here in good faith so that you know I'm not maliciously omitting myself from the results. Some of my conclusions may also apply to scooby's voting pattern, but since I know his/my alignment, that narrows the field for me to figure out which people exhibiting such behavior were actually possible scum.
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Post Post #1380 (isolation #36) » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:05 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Still waiting on StrangerCoug and Katsuki to respond before analyzing the questions I gave people.
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Post Post #1381 (isolation #37) » Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:28 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In the meantime, I'd like to see people giving their thoughts on these possible scumgroups (included below for reference). No need to comment on a scumgroup you're included in, because obviously you don't think it's correct. However, if you wish to substitute someone else in for yourself and argue why that scumgroup makes more sense, that's acceptable.

Scumgroup 1: xvart, Elli, Stranger, chkflip, Nocmen
Scumgroup 2: xvart, Elli, Bunny, Mykonian, Dramonic
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Post Post #1389 (isolation #38) » Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:59 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

V/LA over the weekend.
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Post Post #1390 (isolation #39) » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:35 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

wtf no posts all day?
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Post Post #1392 (isolation #40) » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:46 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

What do you say about this then, Bunny!

In post 1159, StrangerCoug wrote:David Xanatos is our best option here. I'm pretty sure he and Bunnylover are of opposing alignments and the way he's dealing with the claimed living cop and the masons points toward him being scum.
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Post Post #1394 (isolation #41) » Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:12 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

If I was scum I'd have a hell of a lot better idea who I wanted to lynch right now. I'd have just picked someone easy like chkflip or StrangerCoug and ridden them all the way to lynch without bothering to take a step back and look at the game as whole.

Of course, if you're stubborn and don't believe me, you're welcome to research my scum meta on your own.
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Post Post #1403 (isolation #42) » Sat Oct 15, 2011 3:57 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1397, mykonian wrote:I wish I was as certain of my cases here as I was there. This game is really going nowhere.

As for people thinking I'm scummy, that seems to happen every single game. As long as they don't lynch me for it, I'm fine. It's really amazing to see that I get lynched in games where no cases are made, and I'm not lynched in games where cases form the basis. Cases catch myko scum, using gut gets myko lynched pretty much every single game. Hoopla says I'm stretching to conclusions, she's probably the best one to tell me what I'm doing wrong.

Stretching to conclusions I might be, but I do catch scum with it now and then and it always makes sense. To me at least, and to a good reader too.

Just take that big post by MoS. I really dislike it, even forgetting about scooby's and MoS's play beforehand. And I'll tell you why:

In a long game, scum have a problem compared to a short game: at some point they ran out of their targets, either because the town finds your target to by townie, or they got lynched already. In short, you need some new goals. For town, this means getting reads from posts. For scum this is harder to fake, so what is the ideal solution? A reread. A cold hard analysis which gives a set of lynch targets automatically. So, straight at the start of the day, after MoS nightkilled banshee and he had thought about the goals next day and realised he didn't know exactly where to go, he posted a bandwagon analysis. And I don't have to tell you how they can be manipulated by scum, because bandwagon analysis is such a crude way of scumhunting, as long as you are only looking at placement on the wagon. Scum are countering to that already for a long time. So MoS is looking very brilliantly scumhunting with his analysis and subsequent questions, but in fact he has just given himself a set of targets, and further bases on that post a few other posts asking questions to look active.

want to know why he just asks them to look active? Just check what his reactions on the answers are: they aren't there.

MoS states that he could have gone for an easy mislynch like SC or chkflip. I ask you, who wants to lynch SC after fate called him town based on meta? Who thinks chkflip is a good choice after he so bluntly disagreed with the direction I was taking, showing pure paranoia while the town considered me townie? Those aren't easy mislynches at all, and I honestly don't see any reason to pursue either.

TL;DR you really need to be on the MoS wagon.


Still on V/LA right now, but my first reaction to this is the absurdity of not taking into account the fact that I'm a replacement into this game that has not read this game through all the way, so the #1 best way for me to scumhunt at this point is to go back and look at trends in this game, since I'm not familiar with everything that has happened.

Additionally, there's no way in hell I would have killed Banshee, he was actually a decent lynch target. If I was scum I would have killed Bunnylover or myko. I see what you did there, though, trying to attribute the nightkill to me as if it was already a given. Sneaky.

Interesting shift here by myko/chkflip, though. I need to go back and look at their connections, I'm kinda surprised to see myko defending chkflip all of a sudden.

On a somewhat out-of-game note, if you are scum myko, I commend you for trying to take me on head to head. Sure, the scooby VI thing gives you an easy way to base your case, but it's still commendable that you aren't taking the easy way out by going after someone who has actually done something verifiable as scummy during the course of this game.
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Post Post #1409 (isolation #43) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 10:35 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1404, mykonian wrote:You seem to miss that the key point is that you do such a large analysis right at the start of the day. Town can do it at any point. Scum do it at the start of the day to get targets for a mislynch.


When else was I supposed to do it? Why the hell would I delay it to post it in the middle of the day? That doesn't even make sense.

The fact that you have problems with me thinking chkflip is odd to me. There wouldn't be any sane scum who would try to lynch me yesterday. It's just going to make you look bad. However, I did my share of leading and poking, and I can totally see a town be paranoid about that, since it's quite out of his control. Chkflip voting me doesn't at all make that I have to think chkflip scum.


Wait, so you think chkflip is town because he was paranoid about you, but you completely ignore the fact that he just parked his vote on you until he could hop onto the Jakobvtownwagon without any reasoning? He even TOLD us that he thought Jak was town and voted to lynch him ANYWAY! And you don't find that suspicious AT ALL!?

In post 1406, StrangerCoug wrote:
In post 1403, Mastermind of Sin wrote:Additionally, there's no way in hell I would have killed Banshee, he was actually a decent lynch target. If I was scum I would have killed Bunnylover or myko.

Can you say WIFOM?

UNVOTE: chkflip
VOTE: Mastermind of Sin

I personally think Bunnylover is still on the scummy side, but beside my point.


1) Can you say OMGUS?
2) Everything in this game is WIFOM. That's the whole point of mafia. You can't just call "WIFOM" and use that as your vote reasoning. That shit is so 2005. Present us with a legitimate argument as to why I would have killed Banshee specifically, otherwise GTFO.
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Post Post #1411 (isolation #44) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 10:48 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Scum do that because they like to push mislynches through. Letting them get away with it is how towns lose.

Town never has a reason to lynch people they think are town.
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Post Post #1413 (isolation #45) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 11:06 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1412, mykonian wrote:
In post 1411, Mastermind of Sin wrote:Scum do that because they like to push mislynches through. Letting them get away with it is how towns lose.

Town never has a reason to lynch people they think are town.


Nor do scum have a reason to vote a top town player. It's just going to look bad.


You're not a top town player. You haven't been since Fate died. Stop fooling yourself.

And I can totally see why while rereading he decided to change his read. Town are allowed to change their read.

Why no vote on chkflip if you are so eager to make sure I don't have a townread on him? You aren't pushing for his lynch, and you react on the fact that I call chkflip town.


Because I'm not sure if chkflip is the best lynch yet, but your town read on him came out of left field. Unlike you, I'm not going to go guns blazing with my vote until I have more evidence to back it up. Unlike you, I'm not just hoping to push a lynch through before people realize that I don't have shit to show for it. And unlike you, I didn't suddenly start calling someone town after this:

In post 1312, mykonian wrote:Check the post stamps. If we take 48-72 hours from the post as the maximum 72 hours, Chkflip was two hours from prod range. That was a proddodge telling us it's all very difficult to read and "oh yeah myko is still scum".Lets not do that again chk, otherwise you earn my vote. The fact that you haven't passed D2 yet and have no conclusions from those days is not a sign that you are actually trying to reread.


When chkflip was voting you, you were all about how scummy he was for doing so and how he wasn't reading the game. Now that he's changed his mind, you suddenly think he's town
because he had been voting you
? Bullshit. You've tried to justify two completely opposite reads on chkflip using the EXACT same reasoning.
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Post Post #1415 (isolation #46) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:40 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

I wasn't aware I was voting StrangerCoug. Nice try, though.
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Post Post #1418 (isolation #47) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:18 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

So basically you can't come up with any particular reason why *I* (as opposed to anyone else who might be scum) would have killed Banshee, but because I claimed that I didn't kill Banshee, you conclude I must have? That totally makes sense.
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Post Post #1420 (isolation #48) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:33 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Unofficial Vote Count:

chkflip - 1 - Nocmen
MoS - 3 - Myko, chkflp, SC

Not Voting - 4 - MoS, dramonic, Katsuki, Bunnylover

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

With dramonic and Nocmen checking in and not piling on my wagon, I'm less inclined to think they are scum at this point. (If we have 3 scum left, that is...)

Unfortunately, that doesn't give me a lot of insight between the two main scumgroups I'm looking at, so perhaps there is a different permutation at work.
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Post Post #1424 (isolation #49) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:23 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Let's not be hasty, guys. Chkflip is very possibly scum, even likely, but I think we're going to need a good understanding of who his scumbuddies might be to make sure that him being scum actually makes sense. Don't rush to lynch him before you tackle that dilemma.
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Post Post #1425 (isolation #50) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:24 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Also, I'm thinking today might be the appropriate time for a mass claim.
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Post Post #1428 (isolation #51) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:59 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Sure, chkflip. Let's start with you and then popcorn.
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Post Post #1430 (isolation #52) » Sun Oct 16, 2011 4:36 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Because we're getting pretty close to LYLO, and we can use all the information we can get, imo.
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Post Post #1441 (isolation #53) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:03 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Andrew Hutton, Student, here because I was out gambling with friends and some guy asked if I wanted to play for bigger stakes.

VT.

StrangerCoug, you're up.
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Post Post #1442 (isolation #54) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Also, agreed that chkflip and dram should claim their flavor next time they post.
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Post Post #1449 (isolation #55) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 2:35 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

What was nocmen's claim again?
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Post Post #1455 (isolation #56) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 3:20 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

I'm pretty sure Bunny claimed to have lied about the innocent on Fate. Didn't she later claim to have been blocked that night as well and just made up the result?
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Post Post #1456 (isolation #57) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 3:20 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Oh btw, don't have time to make a case as I'm late for work, but I'm going to be voting Bunnylover when I get back. Just fyi that shit is scummy as hell.
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Post Post #1457 (isolation #58) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 3:22 am

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In the meantime I encourage people to look over the list of dead players and see if Bunnylover's role makes sense in this "basic theme" setup given the other protown roles that are dead already.
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Post Post #1462 (isolation #59) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:52 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1460, Bunnylover wrote:
In post 1456, Mastermind of Sin wrote:Oh btw, don't have time to make a case as I'm late for work, but I'm going to be voting Bunnylover when I get back. Just fyi that shit is scummy as hell.

But two claims from a golddigger make sense?
Especially when if you look at the death list you have:
xvart - Henry Sinclair -
Security Guard
- Mafia Goon - Lynched with something day 2
xRECKONERx - Derek Walker -
Security Guard
- Town Roleblocker - Shot Night 2

and

Flameaxe - Michael Murphy -
Gambler
- Gambler (doc variant) - Stabbed by a roulette table spike night 1
Ellibereth - Natasha Barclay -
Gambler
- Mafia Goon - Shot Night 4

But just don't forget this information.
One of Chkflip or Nocmen is scum. Think its Chkflip, but thats just because Fate believed Nocmen claim.
My been lynched is like lynching a VT at the moment, so not too big of lost.


We also have:

Myko - Gambler
MoS - Student
StrangerCoug - High Roller
dramonic - Manager
Katsuki - Blackjack Dealer
Nocmen - Gold Digger
chkflip - Gold Digger

We have two dead gamblers, 1 dead student, and 1 dead high roller. By your argument, Myko, myself, StrangerCoug, and one of Nocmen/chkflip would all have to be scum because we're duplicates.

Nice try, though.

Vote: Bunnylover


The only reason Bunny is alive at this point is because...well, I have no idea actually. Bunny is alive because Fate saved her, and that's it. Fate wasn't a cop, and in this case he probably screwed us by not letting that lynch go through. Unfortunately, Oman probably felt he didn't need to counterclaim because Bunny had already been hammered.

Given the setup, the town has 1 busdriver, 1 doc variant, 1 roleblocker, 1 cop, and 1 governor. So far there are two dead mafia goons. I can't see Bunny's claim fitting into the balance here, since the town already has a LOT of power. I'm guessing the mafia probably DO have a roleblocker, and there is an SK out there since no one claimed vig. That means we're likely only searching for 2 more mafia and 1 SK, which is important to keep in mind when analyzing connections.

My gut would be to go back to my original analysis and conclude that myko/bunny are the remaining mafia, but I'm going to wait for Bunny's flip before putting too much trust in that read.
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Post Post #1468 (isolation #60) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 3:47 pm

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a) Fate didn't flip scum, he was town.
b) You haven't been lynched yet.
c) The following post is telling me not to give up on the possibility that you and myko are scumbuddies...that's not a great way to convince me you're town.

In post 1463, Bunnylover wrote:Im flipping town, so =/.
Its still a possiblity though. I wouldn't give up on it so easily :<.
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Post Post #1477 (isolation #61) » Fri Oct 21, 2011 11:26 am

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Oh my god, I am a fucking champion. That crosskill was fucking brilliant. I pretty much expected to die last night, but since the two mafia groups knew there were other scum out there (once Bunny flipped blue instead of red), they must have decided to try and kill each other instead of town.

Nocmen, how can you seriously think I am scum at this point? I have just hunted 3 scum in a row for this town and saved your asses (with the help of a crosskill). If there is anyone who is definitely not scum, it's me.

I'm going to go back and look at my analysis from yesterday to see who makes sense as Bunny/Myko's buddy.
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Post Post #1479 (isolation #62) » Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:39 pm

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Katsuki - Late on the myko wagon, early on Bunny #1
chkflip - Did not vote myko, early on Bunny #1
Nocmen - early on the myko and bunny #1 wagons
Dram - early on the bunny #2 wagon

Bunny - Started the Katsuki #2 wagon
Myko - Middle of the Nocmen wagon

Bunny wagon: Started by MoS (that alone should clear me since I could have easily just jumped on the chkflip wagon and tipped the scales).

Voting order: Nocmen, myko, MoS , SC, Dram
Not voting Bunny: chkflip, Katsuki

Note on the above: You'll recall that I pushed the Bunny lynch before I left for work and then voted when I got back from work, which is why my vote was third on the wagon.

The hardest thing to figure out here is why that scumteam tried to build two town counterwagons rather than just pushing through a lynch on me once myko started it. I guess they thought they could ensure a counterwagon wouldn't start on one of them if they had two competing wagons already. And it almost worked, so I guess that's something.

If Katsuki is scum, he tried to help build a counterwagon along with Bunny while myko was lynching me.

If chkflip is scum, I have to discard some of my earlier reasoning that tied him to xvart. I also don't think that Bunny would have tried to fuel a wagon on chkflip as a counter to mislynching me. He was, however, on my wagon, so that's a point against him somewhat.

If Nocmen is scum, he jumped on early chances to bus his buddies earlier in the game. Also, I noticed that at the end of the day we lynched TheJak, he stated that myko was his second best scumread, but then the next day he came out going after Kat and chk and just dropped the myko suspicion altogether. myko jumped on the Nocmen wagon basically in the RVS stage (that was the quality of the reasoning), and Bunny doesn't even really mention the Nocmen wagon or give an opinion.

If Dram is scum, he avoided the bunny wagon the first time around and then voted her after she lived through the lynch. Additionally, Dram was "cleared" by bunny's first "result", which could have been an attempt to let her scumbuddy skim by.

As such, I'd rank my scumreads in this order:

Nocmen
Dramonic
chkflip
Katsuki

I'm really worried that Nocmen and I ended up with opposite lists, since that indicates to me that he's coming up with completely different conclusions based on reading the exact same info. If you take myself and Nocmen out of the equation, these are our lists:

Nocmen's list - Katsuki, chkflip, Dramonic
MoS' list - Dramonic, chkflip, Katsuki

I'd expect to have at least some similarities between reads on people who are probably town, since I'm guessing that we only have 1 scum left. That means that if Nocmen is town, at least 2 of the people on those lists are also town, and Nocmen and I do not see them the same way at all. This sort of thing isn't really evidence in and of itself, but it was significant enough to make me do a double-take when I realized it.

That said, no one should place any votes until everyone has weighed in at length. It isn't LYLO (I don't see how we could have more than 6 scum in a 20 person game and still be balanced, even with this many power roles), but we should still be careful with our votes.
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Post Post #1483 (isolation #63) » Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:09 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 1482, Nocmen wrote:
In post 1477, Mastermind of Sin wrote:

Nocmen, how can you seriously think I am scum at this point? I have just hunted 3 scum in a row for this town and saved your asses (with the help of a crosskill). If there is anyone who is definitely not scum, it's me.



Saved who? Kinda seems like a slip to me.


Uh, what? I don't even know what you're talking about. I just saved you guys from Fate's lolimmasavetwoscumfromdeath play by nailing 3 scum since I replaced into this game.

I think you are scum because of how scooby interacted with myko and Bunny
Look at D1 between myko and scooby, see that passive-aggressive trades, without voting? When myko made so many votes?
It's also a process of elimination. Kats is my most scummy, dramonic is the least. chk is slightly neutral because I've still seen practically nothing come out of that slot.


Gotta love how you're going to pin scooby on my but have absolutely no answer for the interactions between myself and myko/Bunny since I replaced.

In post 1479, Mastermind of Sin wrote:

Bunny wagon: Started by MoS (that alone should clear me since I could have easily just jumped on the chkflip wagon and tipped the scales).

Note on the above: You'll recall that I pushed the Bunny lynch before I left for work and then voted when I got back from work, which is why my vote was third on the wagon.



Really? And how the hell should that clear you? It was obvious, with almost no doubt, at that point that Bunny was caught in a lie with his claims.


If it was so obvious to everyone, why the hell were there 3 votes on me and 3 votes on chkflip until I came in and told you all to vote Bunny and pointed out why she was scum? You certainly weren't all over Bunny, you were voting chkflip, who you now claim is "slightly neutral". Care to explain how Katsuki jumped to the top of your list randomly?



If Katsuki is scum, he tried to help build a counterwagon along with Bunny while myko was lynching me.

So that's your main reason why you think Katsuki is town?


If chkflip is scum, I have to discard some of my earlier reasoning that tied him to xvart. I also don't think that Bunny would have tried to fuel a wagon on chkflip as a counter to mislynching me. He was, however, on my wagon, so that's a point against him somewhat.

If Nocmen is scum, he jumped on early chances to bus his buddies earlier in the game. Also, I noticed that at the end of the day we lynched TheJak, he stated that myko was his second best scumread, but then the next day he came out going after Kat and chk and just dropped the myko suspicion altogether. myko jumped on the Nocmen wagon basically in the RVS stage (that was the quality of the reasoning), and Bunny doesn't even really mention the Nocmen wagon or give an opinion.

If Dram is scum, he avoided the bunny wagon the first time around and then voted her after she lived through the lynch. Additionally, Dram was "cleared" by bunny's first "result", which could have been an attempt to let her scumbuddy skim by.

As such, I'd rank my scumreads in this order:

Nocmen
Dramonic
chkflip
Katsuki

I'm really worried that Nocmen and I ended up with opposite lists, since that indicates to me that he's coming up with completely different conclusions based on reading the exact same info. If you take myself and Nocmen out of the equation, these are our lists:

Nocmen's list - Katsuki, chkflip, Dramonic
MoS' list - Dramonic, chkflip, Katsuki

I'd expect to have at least some similarities between reads on people who are probably town, since I'm guessing that we only have 1 scum left. That means that if Nocmen is town, at least 2 of the people on those lists are also town, and Nocmen and I do not see them the same way at all. This sort of thing isn't really evidence in and of itself, but it was significant enough to make me do a double-take when I realized it.

That said, no one should place any votes until everyone has weighed in at length. It isn't LYLO (I don't see how we could have more than 6 scum in a 20 person game and still be balanced, even with this many power roles), but we should still be careful with our votes.


Why do you see dramonic as so scummy? Do you think Bunny/myko would be so agressive with the way they attacked dram? How about comparing that to how they treated others (including your own slot) in the early game? Notice the differences? Do you think Bunny would fake innocents on both his partners?


When did myko/Bunny attack dram? There was never even a significant wagon on dram, and Bunny "cleared" him with her night 1 action and thus would never have had a reason to attack dram for the rest of the game. Additionally, I do NOT think Bunny would fake innocents on both her partners. She only claimed two results: dram innocent, fate innocent (which she later recanted and said she was lying about). Where exactly did you conclude that Bunny faked innocents on both her partners?

In post 1481, Katsuki wrote:In a 20p game, we're probably looking at a 4/1 distribution at this point. Should only be one NK tonight so we got one mislynch to work with.

As for my reads, Dram is still a giant pool of null as always. The fact that I haven't gotten scumvibes assure me slightly about him, as I've had bad vibes about Myko and SC all game. Dram is nearly confirmed town in my eyes.

I'm still reading through other players, I'll let you guys know when I finish that. Gotta go to a meeting now.

Also I'm still not sure what to think of Nocmen. I can't see scum screaming non-stop for my death, but ya never know.

Would be fine with seeing either chkflip or Nocmen dying today, though leaning towards hanging chkflip for the post I voted him for last day.


Have you seen the flips that have happened? Are you just trying to feign innocence of the setup?


What point are you trying to make here?
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Post Post #1486 (isolation #64) » Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:37 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

chkflip needs to check in and post something useful. dram also needs to come back and give us his reads. I'm pretty much ready to vote obvscum Nocmen, but I want to hold off until we have more content from our other useless players.

In post 1485, Nocmen wrote:
In post 1483, Mastermind of Sin wrote:

Uh, what? I don't even know what you're talking about. I just saved you guys from Fate's lolimmasavetwoscumfromdeath play by nailing 3 scum since I replaced into this game.


Gotta love how you're going to pin scooby on my but have absolutely no answer for the interactions between myself and myko/Bunny since I replaced.

So all of a sudden, because scooby replaced out, I have to ignore everything that he did in this game?


Of course not, and you know that's not what I'm suggesting.

Once you pointed out the connection between myko and Bunny was likely, with the teams, notice how myko attacked you? Distancing from you.


Trying to get me lynched before I took down their entire scumgroup, you mean?

Who are all of these scum that you've pinned. I see that you think you all of a sudden deserve all this credit for the Bunny wagon, when


Well, let's see here. I nailed StrangerCoug, Myko, and Bunny. That's 3 scum from two DIFFERENT scumteams. Are you going to claim that I'm a part of both mafias now?

If it was so obvious to everyone, why the hell were there 3 votes on me and 3 votes on chkflip until I came in and told you all to vote Bunny and pointed out why she was scum? You certainly weren't all over Bunny, you were voting chkflip, who you now claim is "slightly neutral". Care to explain how Katsuki jumped to the top of your list randomly?

Because the mass claim ended. When you look at the fact that the roles Bunny needed to make his claim true didn't exist, or were extremely unlikely, How does that make YOU all of a sudden a god for nailing that scum? Your defense right now is arrogance saying you're all of a sudden so pro-town.[/quote]

And who suggested the mass claim? LoL...

As for Katsuki, the fact that the most I've seen from that slot is the defense of the Fate/Myko mason claim, seems like Katsuki knew myko was scum. What else has Katsuki doen that makes him town?


Wait, defending the Fate/Myko mason claim doesn't at all indicate that Katsuki had inside knowledge that myko was scum. That doesn't even follow logically.


When did myko/Bunny attack dram? There was never even a significant wagon on dram, and Bunny "cleared" him with her night 1 action and thus would never have had a reason to attack dram for the rest of the game. Additionally, I do NOT think Bunny would fake innocents on both her partners. She only claimed two results: dram innocent, fate innocent (which she later recanted and said she was lying about). Where exactly did you conclude that Bunny faked innocents on both her partners?

The connections with the targets Bunny had. I don't see that direct of a connection to dram. You don't pleade for dram's innocence so much in the game, and then make another scum buddy another target as well, especially when it seems the scum are in groups of 3).


Now you're just spewing horseshit. "The connections with the targets Bunny had"??? Bunny claimed to target dram and Fate, and then said she lied about targeting Fate. The
ONLY
person with a direct connection to Bunny's role claim is dram, and you claim that you "don't see that direct of a connection to dram"??? LMFAO.

dram being the ONLY person Bunny attempted to clear doesn't at all make him MORE town. She could easily have been sucking up to him, but Bunny's fake result is NOT the main reason I think dram is scum. Anyone with half a brain can see that dram has not done anything of consequence this entire game. Until he hammered Bunny, he has not been a part of any major wagon through
SIX
game days. That's why if you're not scum, dram is my next bet. This is all irrelevant, though, because I don't actually think dram is scum right now, since I'm only looking for one and that person is you.



What point are you trying to make here?


I'm looking at the fact that Katsuki is blatanty not following the game, and ensuring that he won't use a defense to the extend of "I can't be scum because I wouldnt say there is a 4/1 setup".


Why the hell would Katsuki use that defense? That's retarded, Nocmen. I already told everyone the setup is likely 4/1, that's pretty much common knowledge to anyone paying attention. It's the only logical conclusion that can be drawn.
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Post Post #1488 (isolation #65) » Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:01 pm

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In post 1487, Nocmen wrote:1. So suggesting a mass claim, and having a case on 3 people, who flipped scum, makes you town? And how many people had been pushing cases on those 3 during this game? This self-entitled bullshit that you think makes yours so much more superior is shit logic.


LoL, so I'm scum for being the only useful player left alive? LMAO...

2. Tell me why Dram is more scummy than say, the other 2 players, who have practically done nothing as well this entire game? Not joining wagons is more scummy than joining wagons, and not contributing at all?


Not joining ANY wagons indicates a possible desire to not want to draw attention to oneself during vote analysis. However, I don't actually think Dram is scum right now, so this argument is really moot.

3. How the hell can a 4/1 setup be a logical conclusion when theres 3/2 flipped right now?


...because there are
4
town and
1
scum remaining...bringing the total scum to 3/3...what part of that doesn't make sense to you?
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Post Post #1493 (isolation #66) » Sun Oct 23, 2011 3:38 pm

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I had chkflip as a very highly possible scum yesterday, but that was based on game analysis that tied him to xvart. I didn't actually expect there to be two mafias, but I didn't really see any good reason to tie him to myko and bunny. He's my third option after Nocmen and dramonic.
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Post Post #1496 (isolation #67) » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:46 pm

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In post 1494, Nocmen wrote:Well, 4/1 makes sense now. I was still in the mindset that you were thinking 4 scum, 1SK as the anti-town roles, from previous references of 4/1 in the game.


Actually, previously we were speculating 5/1, but whatever.

In post 1495, dramonic wrote:@MoS: I also spent 95% of the game trying to lynch Myko. You shouldn't JUST consider bunny's flip to get a read on my alignment =/


That was a point in your favor over lynching Nocmen, but keep in mind that there was never really a significant myko wagon past the early game. I could easily explain your attacks on myko as non-committal distancing (ie telling people you think X is scum without actually working very hard on building a wagon against them), if I thought you were scum. But I'll cross that bridge when/if we come to it, because right now I believe that you're telling the truth, since we can only have one scum.

It's most likely 4-1. If it's not it's 2-2-1 and we lost, so whatever.

I would lynch a chkflip. Who's with me?


No, chkflip is not the play. Why would Bunny help push a counterwagon on her own teammate when I was so close to being lynched? At one point the VC had 3 votes on me and 3 votes on chkflip, with myko and Bunny each pushing a wagon. That makes me think they were trying to get competing mislynches going so that they come out ahead no matter which one goes through. Their actions make no sense if chkflip is scum, so I'm not buying it.

Nocmen is the lynch for today. Chkflip is the lazy lynch, and the rest of us townies need to not fall into that trap. Useless players are not necessarily scum, and there is no good reason to connect chkflip to Bunny/myko.
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Post Post #1502 (isolation #68) » Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:57 am

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I'm ready to get this lynch done, but I don't want to go to night without out chkflip replacement, just on the offchance that I'm wrong about Nocmen. I don't want a random-ass replacement player fucking it up for us tomorrow if I'm dead.
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Post Post #1510 (isolation #69) » Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:51 pm

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There has been a different flavor for pretty much every death, I think Prozac was just making stuff up. I wouldn't lend it too much credence. I'd rather you give your opinions on Nocmen, Katsuki, and dramonic.
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Post Post #1516 (isolation #70) » Sat Oct 29, 2011 11:04 am

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chkflip, please explain why you think Nocmen is town. In your case please refute the extensive case I've already posted about why he IS scum.
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Post Post #1518 (isolation #71) » Sat Oct 29, 2011 11:04 pm

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Seriously tempted to vote chkflip if he doesn't give us something useful. This is your last warning.
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Post Post #1521 (isolation #72) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 12:23 pm

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LoL Katsuki. Give it time.
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Post Post #1523 (isolation #73) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 2:12 pm

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Well considering that I don't get off of work until 5 pm tomorrow, and that will be right before deadline, I can't afford to wait any longer. Quite obviously, my previous post was a gambit to try and get chkflip to post something of substance. A rather flimsy one at that, since I've already stated that I would rather lynch Nocmen or dramonic than chkflip. I have no intention of actually voting him, and if anything the fact that he didn't go through the motions to try and make himself look better makes me more sure that he's town.

Vote: Nocmen


As if there was really any other possible lynch for today...
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Post Post #1526 (isolation #74) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 4:45 pm

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If by some terrible turn of events this game isn't over, y'all better look hard at everything tomorrow and not rush to a decision. An argument could be made for any one of you three to be scum, so don't try and take an easy way out. Look back on my analysis, but draw your own conclusions. Just because I was right three times before doesn't mean I'm right again, and if the game is still going tomorrow that will be the perfect example because it means Nocmen wasn't scum. But I feel like I've given you guys the tools to make the right decision, so just consider carefully before you make any moves.
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Post Post #1528 (isolation #75) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 5:26 pm

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It's only 11:30 pm here... =P
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Post Post #1534 (isolation #76) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 5:46 pm

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Just wanted to say that scooby nearly screwed us over because it gave the scum fodder to discredit me

ok
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Post Post #1538 (isolation #77) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 5:54 pm

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In post 1536, Katsuki wrote:<3 MoS

He was the beacon of towniness that this town needed.

Well not to mention, BL+Myko interaction with MOS, and his clearing of chkflip as town meant that it HAD to be nocmen/dram. And Dram towntell doesn't fail. :D

I was right that Fate wasn't a mason. And that myko was probably scum. = =


Katsuki you scared me for a sec when you voted me. I had almost not posted the chkflip gambit because I was afraid someone would think I was scum for it. Then, I didn't want to wait another 24 hours for a possible wagon to build on me without me being able to explain that it was a gambit.
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Post Post #1546 (isolation #78) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:14 pm

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In post 1539, Nocmen wrote:I honestly had no idea how to play at the end. I played so sloppy over the whole game, I was just kind of stalling to hope that something good would come up. I knew dram was town, and MoS's logic just got stronger and stronger. I would have much difficulty pulling the lynch off on kats, and once chk died, I knew I was next.


I applaud you for the effort, even if it was the fact that you clearly did not understand what I was arguing that eventually convinced me it had to be you. I went through the same situation playing a board game (Betrayal at House on the Hill) last night where I had to be the hidden traitor (essentially an SK) and convince everyone I was on their side while refusing to do the one thing that would have cleared me as town but killed me if I was the traitor. I got them to waver for like 20-30 minutes and then they finally played it right and took me out. It's not a good situation to be in, so I don't envy you having to dig out of that hole. All in all, you made the best out of a bad situation, and I think your play on this last day was very good.
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Post Post #1549 (isolation #79) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:18 pm

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In post 1544, mykonian wrote:Congrats town.

This game made me sad. I've probably never played better as scum, I told various people very clearly I was scum, didn't even bother to follow my town meta from time to time, and apart from that rocketwagon (stopped by fates claim, thank you again), you simply refused to lynch me. And well, endgame... Lets say that I would have wanted a lot of small and big things to have been different.


<3. Yea, I never really bought you or Bunny as being obvtown (didn't think you were obvscum either until later), but as a replacement who hadn't read most of the game, I didn't feel like I had the juice to get you guys lynched since everyone else (except DavidX and then later Banshee) seemed to be content letting you live. So I just focused on finding someone else who was scum, since I knew there had to be several left and I wasn't certain about you guys anyway. The only thing I knew for sure was that DavidX and TheJak were obvtown and in the middle of that I found SCscum. But once we got down to crunch time and I had failed to stop 2 mislynches, I knew I had to do something major to turn the tide, so I spent like 3 hours on that initial analysis post, lol...
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Post Post #1553 (isolation #80) » Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:59 am

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To be fair, we tried to lynch Bunny the next day after Oman died, and you were all like OMG NO I GOVERNED HER SHE IS OBVCOP.
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Post Post #1554 (isolation #81) » Mon Oct 31, 2011 3:08 am

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BTW, I sent this to Prozac last Saturday, Oct 22nd:

jhawk01b (6:40:03 PM): my bet right now is Nocmen
jhawk01b (6:40:17 PM): I'm not going to move on it strongly yet, as I want to gather more evidence
jhawk01b (6:40:25 PM): but I'm just going to call it now

=P
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Post Post #1564 (isolation #82) » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:13 pm

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In post 1403, Mastermind of Sin wrote:On a somewhat out-of-game note, if you are scum myko, I commend you for trying to take me on head to head. Sure, the scooby VI thing gives you an easy way to base your case, but it's still commendable that you aren't taking the easy way out by going after someone who has actually done something verifiable as scummy during the course of this game.


I just wanted to go back and say that I actually did mean this. Myko played with a lot of balls this game after Fate's mason claim, and it definitely took balls to try and run me up while I was on to you guys.

In post 1462, Mastermind of Sin wrote:
In post 1460, Bunnylover wrote:
But two claims from a golddigger make sense?
Especially when if you look at the death list you have:
xvart - Henry Sinclair -
Security Guard
- Mafia Goon - Lynched with something day 2
xRECKONERx - Derek Walker -
Security Guard
- Town Roleblocker - Shot Night 2

and

Flameaxe - Michael Murphy -
Gambler
- Gambler (doc variant) - Stabbed by a roulette table spike night 1
Ellibereth - Natasha Barclay -
Gambler
- Mafia Goon - Shot Night 4

But just don't forget this information.
One of Chkflip or Nocmen is scum. Think its Chkflip, but thats just because Fate believed Nocmen claim.
My been lynched is like lynching a VT at the moment, so not too big of lost.


We also have:

Myko - Gambler
MoS - Student
StrangerCoug - High Roller
dramonic - Manager
Katsuki - Blackjack Dealer
Nocmen - Gold Digger
chkflip - Gold Digger

We have two dead gamblers, 1 dead student, and 1 dead high roller.
By your argument, Myko, myself, StrangerCoug, and one of Nocmen/chkflip
would all have to be scum because we're duplicates.

(bolded for emphasis)

I love how Myko, StrangerCoug, and Nocmen all ended up scum, even though some of these claims were fake flavor anyway.

Edit: Hilariously enough, I was more than willing to agree with Bunny that Myko/SC and one of Nocmen/chkflip were all scum, but I was thrown off by the fact that my role (student) was a duplicate of an already revealed town role. I didn't want to pursue that theory for fear that I'd get lynched as part of it, so I just went about trying to find other ways to build cases against all of them.
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Post Post #1566 (isolation #83) » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:41 pm

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Yea I couldn't understand what you were thinking at all.
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #84) » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:14 pm

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I didn't say myko wasn't scummy, scooby. If he wasn't, I wouldn't have been able to build a case against him, lol...the point is, AFTER the fake mason claim, myko played it to the fullest and used it as an excuse to do a lot of scummy things. He didn't get away with it, but it still took balls to try it.
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Post Post #1573 (isolation #85) » Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:09 am

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In post 27, dramonic wrote:
Vote: Mykonian

THat first post.


dat good analysis.
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #86) » Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:31 pm

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I expected to die, I was surprised I lived after lynching you.
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Post Post #1578 (isolation #87) » Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:59 pm

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Actually, that might have been a town win. SC/Noc/Kats lynch chkflip, then SC/Noc kill each other.
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Post Post #1580 (isolation #88) » Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:02 pm

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Yea, lots of ways it could go down.
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Post Post #1583 (isolation #89) » Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:00 pm

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<3 Elli.
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Post Post #1586 (isolation #90) » Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:53 am

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LoL
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