Oh man oh man, Lady 2 is scum. Wow. She's with Gent 8. And looking back at her play during this phase, it makes a lot of sense.
OK, so here's what I'm seeing, going all the way back to the start of this dance phase, I'm casing this:
In post 3876, Lady 2 wrote:So looking at the pairs we have, I also don't have a strong bead on two T-T pairs. Not even one right now, honestly.
Excited but also horrified that old!L5 says G8 has posted in their PT but not in the thread????
I keep going back and forth on G1 myself. He's been okay in PT I guess.
In post 3876, Lady 2 wrote:I ... L9 voting L5/G8 over my pair is worrisome. I'm starting to think it would be better if my pair was kicked out first. If G8/L5 is T-T we're in a deep hole, though I guess the same is true if G1 is in fact Town and we're lynched first.
Her first real post of the day and she opens up by talking about how town is in a pickle if one of her pair or gent 8/lady 5 are town. But, she also doesn't really think that, apparently.
In post 3876, Lady 2 wrote:I'm paranoid now that L9 is actually scum with G1? But if that were true would she even be investing in getting the other pair lynched first?
I need to do more thinking, clearly. If my paranoia (?) that L5/G8 is T-T is true, maybe new!L5 and G8 (who exists maybe? Is there precedent for a slot not posting in-thread for over a week - yes I know including Intermission but still - and not getting replaced? L5 was replaced so quickly!) can help get themselves sorted?
Trying to set it up so her scum partner doesn't get lynched instantly.
In post 3899, Lady 2 wrote:
????????
G7, what you do if L5/G8 flips T-T, explain now
I am VERY not sure about the push for G8/L5 to be the first lynch in this phase. And I'm more than a little paranoid that just as there's some light at the end of the tunnel with regard to old!L5 being a rule-breaking mess and G8 being unresponsive - just as there's a chance they might become readable - there are a lot of players saying "well of course G1/L2 and G8/L5 both need to go, L5/G8 definitely goes first".
VOTE: Gentleman 1/Lady 2
She votes her own pair instead of L5/G8, in response to Gent 7 voting L5/G8
At this point she's very ready for Gent 8 to go down, and doesn't expect to really get lynched here. She's voting herself so it doesn't look like she's voting nobody when mafia gets lynched. If Gent 8 flips here she's ready to declare her own pair T-T
In post 3929, Lady 2 wrote:L5, please do not leave dance, especially not before G8's replacement takes over the slot and says something. I'm really not comfortable with the way your pair is being pushed right now as the lynch that needs to happen first and I DO NOT want your pair to be the first pair out a) without you and G8 having time to give input that might make you readable and b) without enough people having to commit a vote to actually lynch your pair.
What is the actual reason that she doesn't want G8/L5 to die right now? She says it's because other people want to lynch G8/L5 and then G1/L2 after, and that worries her... but why does it matter, if both pairs are dying? it shouldn't, she should WANT L5 to leave here, and then she can leave herself if she really holds suspicions.
In post 3966, Lady 2 wrote:
Then it shouldn't matter from your perspective whether G1/L2 is lynched first and G8/L5 second?
I
really
don't understand your perspective doubling down on G8 having to be scum. G8 could be scum, as I see it, certainly. I don't think he's said anything so remarkable yet as to make him a significant Townread for me. I also haven't seen anything which warrants wondering whether he's scum being coached by his buddies. It's just - let me repeat - bizarre to me that you jumped straight from me saying I don't want L5 to leave outright because G8 might become readable and because we lose information by having a quick leave without a lynch wagon to you saying that "it's hard looking at what he's saying right now without thinking that he could have been coached or whatnot extensively before posting this stuff". I never said that his posts upon replacing in made him look Town, even! But you had a vocal Townread on L5 previously and no read on G8, though you did say his proposals were bad and you didn't want to take him to endgame, so ... fair enough. But this is a very very hard pre-emptive case against trying to read G8 or letting him live long enough to post anything readable! And it's not like G8 is your only scumread - and I don't see how he could legitimately be your strongest scumread either, but what do I know. So just. What! How? No.
Everyone assumed L5/G8 would continue to be disruptive and unreadable by inactivity respectively and therefore have to go (G1, still a major suspect of mine, has really only posted about L5 needing to go, plus some shade during First Dance about G6 being disruptive and driving Town off a cliff but without committing to a scumread on him). Now that's changed - potentially, anyway. I'm starting to wonder whether they might not be T-T, a very valuable mislynch scum has been counting on for a long time now that's suddenly much less certain.
Basically, I don't believe you are Town at this point, L9.
UNVOTE:
G7, what the hell information do you take away from a G8/L5 lynch if they flip T-T?
Thinking.
She's been prepared for Lady 7 to leave Gent 7 this whole time, so she's going hard on him to distance the last 2 scum pairings. She thinks Gent 8 can be saved at this point.
This is now a VERY strong defense of the Lady 5/Gent 8 slot, when Gent 8 still hasn't really done anything but post a bit. I even mentioned that he could be getting coached, and it's possible Lady 2 herself was coaching him here, and she went hard against the prospect of that.
In post 3969, Lady 2 wrote:
I'll be honest I like you too. I feel like I'm
supposed
to downplay that and question my Townread on you because our styles and attitudes are similar and maybe I just like you personally and am being pocketed (oh yes, Lady 2, partner of esteemed Gentleman 1, a real prime pocketing opportunity here this game!). But honestly you are my strongest Townread and if I don't work with that productively then I'm
really
not doing what I'm supposed to do, and anyway what of it, it's not like either of us really trust G7 so even if you were scum that's not really a major opportunity for you personally to use me to push your pair to endgame so yeah.
But in that case what do? Lynch L9? Or just lynch G1/L2?
I'm starting to be paranoid that it's G1, L9, one of {L6/G3} as deepwolf. I don't want to be too paranoid but my stronger reads here are G1 and L9 and G1's vote of G7 looks not really like a bus but more like something that avoids touching L9 right now and I think if I'm right and he is scum he just doesn't want to touch the deepwolf at all. If I had to choose one of the L5/G8 voters I've called out G7's explanation seems better than what L9 has here and what G1 has here too so. How do you see it right now?
It's at that point we realize that she never
really
plans on leaving, she's setting up to make it to end game here.
Look at her reads...
what happened to G7? She was going hard on him but he's not her scumread, her stated reads do NOT match what she was saying. She never really talked about l6/g3 either but for some reason they're 'deep wolf'. Actually, that whole list is town, because she's the scum in her pair, and I'm town, so wow. "G1's vote on G7 doesn't look like a bus" does she ever bring this up again, like in our current situation, where G7 flipped scum, but she's still pretending to be unsure on G1, and needs me to flip to 'reevaluate'? These aren't real thoughts!
And by the way, here's the person who has been pushing me as scum this phase after we didn't die. Her and Gent 7.
In post 3983, Lady 2 wrote: In post 3981, Lady 7 wrote:Soooo the game is pretty stagnant, we haven’t come to a decision for a lynch, and I do t think I’m in a town/town pair anyway. I’m seriously considering leaving tonight before I head to bed. That gives you guys 3 days and a couple flips to work with.
Don't, I will go instead.
Looking back and seeing that Gent 7 was scum. I don't know what this was about, but if she's scum then she doesn't ever plan to leave, just act like it and then that she's reconsidering
In post 4035, Lady 2 wrote:
You and G1 have both been too interested in lynching G8/L5 first in Second Dance. Maybe because of that I am too paranoid that they're actually one of our remaining T-T pairs because otherwise it's not that they've been super readable, though actually G8 seems kind of okay right now. Not something I'd like to stake the game on but there's no one pair I feel comfortable staking the game on as T-T to be honest. If I had to, gun to my head, I'd have L7-G7 and L5-G8 in, though you could probably WIFOM me between L5-G8 and G3-L6 as the better endgame shot at T-T right now, which basically means I want G1 and L9 out first and then figure it out from there unless I was so wrong that those were both T-T pairs in which case I'd just suck at scumhunting this game, which I can't rule out.
Like if L5 is not scum she was hella lynchbait, no? And you yourself, L9, never scumread L5. And if G8 was really low activity due mainly to out-of-game stuff like illness ... yes it's bad that they have all that baggage and they're not super easy to read. But you know what, it's not like I've seen much useful or readable from you since ... since you accepted G2's invitation to the dance? Really.
And your strong pushback against me telling L5 to not just up and leave before new G8 has a chance to say anything useful and maybe readable ... no. Stop asking me what G8 has done that's Town. I'm not sure he is. He hasn't done that much. But I'm sure as hell actively and specifically scumreading you for the way you pushed back against the idea that they shouldn't go immediately as a given, essentially. I don't see why you would take that perspective if you're Town. And if you're scum, mayyyybe you're trying to preserve your own longevity by bussing a slot that's been thought of as completely compromised for a long time, seeing little downside to it because probably L5/G8 gets lynched, there's a scumflip, you're still fine yourself. Or maybe you're just securing a T-T lynch that you think is kind of a freebie.
G1 spent all his time First Dance scumcasing L5 and shading G6. But I don't really think those were real. The L5 stuff was all for the lynchbaity stuff she's done. It's like he was casing complete busywork.
Actually I should mention when suicide pacts came up yesterday, like right when G4 and G6 were doing their whole "come at me bro" stuff he started saying "hey, should I make one of these with L5 to get the pair out of the game" which ... yeah I don't know what to make of that except to think that L5 would have done a suicide pact with anyone in a reliable manner is just MOONBEAMS level. I'm not staking a Townread on that being a real desire for a suicide pact with L5 on his part.
I really really don't think you're Town, L9. And I don't
really
think G1 is Town either at this point.
VOTE: Gentleman 2/Lady 9
Look the chances of you being lynched as first pair out in this phase are low because I'm pretty likely to leave dance tomorrow morning. Then you'll get my flip, more importantly (given I don't think anyone has a strong scumread on me at the moment?) you get G1's flip. If G1 is Town and I screwed up, that's my mistake as much as anyone's for me leaving and I'm not exactly sure what the game looks like except I guess you'd have to put more scrutiny on people who pushed us as the first lynch for this phase?
But certainly if he's scum, by no means let L9 live to endgame.
Giant wall of text talking about how I'm scum and how Gent 8/Lady 5 are a town-town pair because people are pushing them for doing nothing
In post 4128, Lady 2 wrote:It fits my paranoia bias that L5/G8 is T-T. Still reading.
Looking back, G7 did push the G8 scum -> L2 scum thing during first dance while hard pushing L5/G8 as first lynch. That does largely rule out G8/G1 as remaining scum team here. If G8 is in fact scum, G7 does not really want to lynch G8 and have him flip scum for the privilege of being able to lynch me and get G1-scum flipped in the bargain.
Okay need to head out, more later.
So as soon as Gent 7 flips she starts building this narrative that G1 and G8 can't be scum together, even though she thinks G8 is part of a T-T pair, but at the same time she also doesn't want to leave the dance anymore
Wait, what? That doesn't make any sense, at all, from a town perspective.
In post 4146, Lady 2 wrote:If G7 got the two lynches he was pushing, L5/G8 and G1/L2, he might have won then and there for all I can see right now.
Oh yeah, her plans are definitely in motion at this point
Lady 2 is uncharacteristically unwilling to examine lady 6 at all. Where does her suspicion here come from...?
In post 4160, Lady 2 wrote:VOTE: Gentleman 3/Lady 6
Okay, I'll be V/LA probably end of Friday through Saturday so we need to get a move one.
L6 goes now, get flip, do business.
Very fast vote here
In post 4214, Lady 2 wrote: In post 4209, Lady 9 wrote:Lady 2, I need you alive to lynch Gent 8/Lady 5 - they're so joined at the hip that I doubt they leave at the end. We still need one of them to self vote, or for scum to bus, in order to get this lynch
VOTE: Gent 8/Lady 5
When did I suggest I would leave dance? Haven't done so since before G7 flipped.
Gets strangely defensive here about leaving the dance
And then now, she 'needs my flip' - which will end the game, and she has VERY little to say about who I'm scum with right now, and she probably told gent 1 she was feeling better about him in the pt too
