Mafia 78: Meta Breaking Mafia 1 - Game over!

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, time for the big post.

First - I admit freely that my play has been horrible this game. I've been on the verge of flaking for much of the game, I've misinvestigated twice (ABR and TS) due to not paying attention, the timing of proving I'm Sane is horrible, and my play has been wretched at best.

There's really only two things in my favor:

1) Breadcrumbs. I didn't feel the need to point them out when I originally claimed, but they are there. First:

Prodded, Surye claim noted - that's what I was after.

Surye's mason claim can be confirmed or disproved by the other mason if necessary, so I am inclined to believe it. We can deal with the possibility of a scum mason later (Surye, is your mason partner mod-confirmed innocent?).

I failed to notice Xtoxm's FBI Agent claim earlier. I would like to take the time to note that I believe the claim - in fact, in my opinion, I would have to be insane to think otherwise.

Given deadline and my limited access,for the time being I'll fall back on one of my other preferences for lynch - Gorrad, whose play feels off this game (and whose predecessor, Ecto, read scum while he was playing). After further consideration of the situation, I'd rather deal with Elias a bit later.

Unvote, Vote: Gorrad

Note the specific wording "I would have to be insane to think otherwise". This was an explicit reference to the fact that I could reasonable conclude (due to ABR being dead as town) that I was not - indeed, am not - Insane or Paranoid.

Second:

Points against Gorrad: Ecto (who Gorrad replaced) helped derail the first Surye wagon (I've said it before, and I'll say it again - any wagon that reaches L-2 in a game with at least 10 players alive needs to end in a claim), used a playstyle consisting of lots of questions and vote/bandwagon jumps with little explanation (coming from Ecto, that's scummy as all hell), and all-but-ignored Adel despite helping her with the Surye derail (again, consistent with Ecto scum). Gorrad is not nearly as bad, but he bandwagoned heavily, especially at the start of Day 2 (somewhat unusual coming from Gorrad - from what I've seen, he usually stays focused on a single player).

The other big point against Gorrad is that all other easily attainable lynches have major problems (Xtoxm looks all-but-clear to me at the moment, Surye can confirm himself via his partner, I can pretty much clear myself by claim if needed). I'd also support an Elias lynch, but there's no support for that.

Big fat obvious power role crumb, and further support for the claim that mirrored my own role.

Joyous, so the one point against me specifically is that I bandwagoned. That's easily explainable, I actually took good notes during this readthrough. Therefore, because I had notes on hand, I was comfortable voting those I mentioned as scummy. Typically, I don't have notes nearly as good at this, so I'll find one very scummy player and not remember much about others. Not exactly a good strategy, hence the change. Other points I can't defend against, as I didn't cause them.

Also, as much as I hate to admit it, Tar's second paragraph does make sense. He didn't mention the posibility of him being lynched, naturally, but too many people seem to have fallen for Xtoxm's fakeclaim for an Xtoxm lynch to be viable. Ah well, we'll see.

The more important factors for me are that 1) Ecto was, as far as I am concerned, scummy as all hell (not your fault, but you still pay the price for the actions of your predecessor) and 2) I can't see another good preexisting wagon at this point (I have explained why the other three wagons are bad, and I know of no reason why your lynch would be as bad as the three I mentioned), and with deadline a preexisting wagon is our best bet IMO.

Also, unless you have an ability that can find the SK or you know that the SK is investigation immune (for that second one, read: you are the SK), GTFO Xtoxm. Since the beginning of the day, I have strongly suspected that there is an SK-specific investigation role, and so far nobody else has claimed to be that role.

In other news, shaft.ed just took a HUGE jump onto my scumdar for his new crypto tangent (which feels REALLY odd to me - it looks like an attack, but shaft.ed's heart doesn't seem to be in it... possible Information Instead of Analysis?). I need to do a fast read and compare his play here to his play in Open 57 (where he was scum).

FoS: shaft.ed

Finally, as for shaft.ed's question: An Adel/Ecto scumpair could have derailed the Surye wagon for townie points. For that matter, while Surye is not a good lynch for today, I won't consider him completely clear unless I hear that the masons are confirmed innocent (which Surye has so far failed to do).

Note the "since the beginning of the day" part of this quote. Note that I figured out that I could not detect SK if one existed because of my result from N1.

Next post was a fullclaim, so crumbs end here.

Second, a metagame (and therefore somewhat unreliable) argument: Can you point out an occasion where I could conceivably have bussed a buddy in this game? If you look at my finished games as Mafia scum, you'll noticed that one of the defining traits of Tar as Mafia is bussing a buddy (Tool in SG-1, TG in Mini 547, skitzer in Mafia 76, etc.).

Now, let's take a look at how MM as scum fits: N1 kill Adel (duh), N2 try to kill the Cop (stopped by Doc), N3 kill Kison for unknown reason (suspect he's a second cop?), D4 claim a role that's an exact mirror of mine to try to skate to endgame, N4 kill TS (no second Cop).

In addition, MM's behavior is, if possible, WORSE than mine:

Rosso Carne has not voted yet... I'd like to get out of the random stage, thank you very much nicely.

Are you saying that everyone needs to vote before the random stage is over?

I should have caught this several days ago (say, when Rosso came up scum). This looks like MM advising a fellow scum under the guise of scumhunting.

I am not buying farside's wagon due to the link in her sig.

And with the deadline coming up, I do not see myself moving my vote away from CoolBot unless somebody quickly becomes extremely scummy.

Since the alignment of both Albert and Adel are currently unknown, I consider their war of words to be a null tell. So I still like CoolBot as the best lynch.

The most recent exchanges gave me town vibes from both ABR and Elias. On the other hand CoolBot is overwhelmingly on top with his defeatist "I'm expendable" comment.

Pushing the Coolbot lynch (which is just as explainable from scum pushing a mislynch as it is explainable as daycop with a bad guilty).

First I'm taking a look at the CoolBot wagons, which likely have scum.

CoolBot reaches L-1 in VC#8: {Surye, shaft.ed, Albert, Ectomancer, Adel, pickemgenius, Machiavellian-Mafia}
CoolBot is lynched VC#20 {pickemgenius, Machiavellian-Mafia, shaft.ed, Surye, the silent speaker, Kison, farside22, Adel/Gorrad*}
*Adel actually hammered first but misspelled vote. Gorrad successfully hammered.

Common players among both wagons: {MM, PEG, Surye, Shaft.ed, Ecto/Gorrad}

PEG - Generally non-contributor during D1. Full of one-liners. No reasoning whatsoever. Leaning scum.

FOS: PEG

Surye - Defended himself well against early D1 attacks and justified his suspicions towards CoolBot. Leaning town.

Shaft.ed - One of the most protown players thus far. Had valid reasons for CoolBot vote. Leaning town.

Ecto/Gorrad - Ecto was a little bit better than PEG, but still a general non-contributor. Gorrad seems to be an improvement, but currently there are too few posts from Gorrad to make judgement. Neutral.

The biggest things off here are MM's hypocrisy (indirectly attacking players for being on the Coolbot wagon when he was a major force behind the Coolbot wagon himself), unwillingness to commit to attacking any player (finding two players scum, one player neutral, and one player not scummy enough to vote is borderline IIoA) and FoS'ing Pickem instead of voting him (I suspect either not wanting to step on toes or bussing).

PEG has not done anything recently to change my mind about his lack of contributions a.k.a. lurking in plain sight, so

vote: PEG

.

Okay, so there's followup... but no pushing it later? That's a decided difference from how he pushed the Coolbot wagon. Also, if he is a daycop, why didn't he investigate pickem (or Rosso for that matter?) MM/Pickem is actually looking possible now.

After rereading, I find Rosso's play to be just as bad as PEG's. He always seemed to push for certain players' lynches without backing them up with votes. FOS: Rosso

I also revisited the derailment of the Surye wagon, and I find some validity in the Adel/Surye connection. Adel first derails that wagon by subtly complying with ABR's request of "we should all lower our guns", then immediately switches to me for the misrepresented reason of "putting him at L-1" when my vote was L-2. After that Adel fakes re-voting Surye, as if to paint the picture he is trying to undo the derailment. Then the CoolBot wagon gained strength with Adel hopping onto that as well, and Adel rarely if ever mentioned Surye again.

Thus,

Unvote, Vote: Surye

. I believe that's L-2.

Yet another FoS, this time on Rosso (a known scum) with no followup until the deadline wagon. In the meantime, he goes after Surye (the mason who is actually more likely to be town) with relatively detailed reasoning. I call bussing.

Next, let's take a look at MM L-1'ing Rosso Carne:

MM why do you think he's a likely SK? That's a big stretch based off of a single comment in my eyes.

I think it makes the most sense for an SK to react strongly to that claim to try to discredit the SK investigator. Now taking into account Gorrad's overeager vig claim, I find it more likely that one of Xtoxm and Gorrad is lying, rather than both claiming truth. I buy Tar's claim.

I can go with the plan regarding Gorrad and Xtoxm. I also have no problem with a Rosso lynch, as I have expressed suspicion before and Surye made some valid analysis. I believe this vote will be the 6th vote, or L-1:

Unvote, Vote: Rosso

Big problem here: the poorly explained L-1 vote (I've already shown how bad the "prior suspicion" was. If there's one place where I'd expect scum to be on an end-of-day wagon on scum, it's near the end (bussing).

GorradSK is in full desperation mode now, so he should be the lynch today. But I agree with shaft.ed that we need to have everyone post before lynching Gorrad. There's 10 alive, so it's 6 to lynch and Gorrad already has 4 votes.

Do NOT like this post - it's consistent with scum who wants rival scum dead. Also note how he IS willing to go after Gorrad as opposed to a few other players (ABR, PEG, and Rosso mainly) - that looks suspiciously like how I played in Stargate SG-1 (bus partner weakly while finding reasons to go after the Replicators).

MM - Defended farside on the same reasons that Adel did. FoS'ed Rosso Carne out of what seems to be thin air, then voted him at deadline. If there is a non-Mafia mafia-aligned role, I'd say he's it.

I see your "thin air" comment as a misrepresentation. During one of my rereads yesterday I found Rosso to be as scummy as PEG since they were both severe non-contributors. Also I remember a couple of other players express suspicions about Rosso before I did.

I failed to follow up on this at the time due to a bout of flakage. The belated response: 1) Rosso really didn't have that much suspicion on him at the time, and just because other players express suspicion about a player does not mean that it's not suspicious that you suddenly notice something that actually is scummy, FoS, and don't follow up on it - in fact, it looks like bussing. 2) That's actually misrepresenting your own reasoning - quoted above.

I currently like PEG, TS, and Elias as scum candidates, in that order, since they have all been pretty much nonexistent in terms of contributing, especially recently. I'll jump on TS wagon and pressure him.

Vote: TS

Let's see: suspicions are pickem + two other players. Bussing? Anyone want to bet that he's going to back off of Pickem? Oh wait, that's a sucker bet...

I did a reread on my top 3 suspects and I view PEG in a more positive light now. So I like TS lynch + Gorrad killing Elias.

Claimed breadcrumb, but also could very easily be scum backing off of the partner he's bussing. Also, this is the second time he's abandoned pickem suspicions.

Besides Gorrad, I currently suspect shaft.ed, surye, and TS, in that order, based on process of elimination and role based info.

And I have no problem with mass claiming now.

Setting up the claim...

Claim: insane or paranoid daycop

Initially I was not told of my sanity, but I figured it out through my investigations that I have to be either insane or paranoid.

Day 1: Investigated CoolBot because of his claim-demanding scummy behavior and got mafia/guilty, thus my aggressiveness towards getting him lynched is the breadcrumb.

Day 2: Investigated Tar due to strong suspicion at that time and got mafia/guilty. I recall 1 post in which I said "specifically" look at Tar, which was the breadcrumb. Also after Tar claimed, I said "buy" instead of "currently buy" for the claim, which breadcrumbed that I have very strong belief in the claim due to my investigation and Tar's claimed flavor matching mine.

Day 3: Investigated PEG due to strong suspicion and got mafia/guilty. I recall 1 post in which I said "I see PEG in a more positive light", which was the breadcrumb.

I think my role is more likely to be insane than paranoid because I believe Tar and PEG to be town. Hopefully my investigation for today can result in a not mafia/innocent.

... and the claim. It's rather convenient that it's an exact mirror of my own claim - since it's all-but-certain that exactly one of myself and MM is scum, either I managed to mirror MM's role when I claimed despite having absolutely no reasonable way of knowing what his role was, or MM made his claim as a mirror of mine in order to try to slip through to endgame.

The crumbs, as I've shown above, could easily be nothing more than random posts dressed up as breadcrumbs (with the exception of the last crumb, by which point MM had presumably decided on a claim).

This, in fact, was one of the two reasons to investigate MM last night: his role was so close to mine that his claim was the most likely falseclaim. The other reason to do so was because an innocent on MM would mean that the two cops combined had investigated every player in the game and gotten the same result for each investigation, which I would have considered evidence of naive Cop/paranoid Daycop if it had come to pass.

Second: shaft.ed, there are two dead Mafia Goons and I have a Guilty on a third. In addition, I just proved myself Sane. I'm definitely NOT going to rule out an investigation-immune scum (either Godfather or Traitor), and since you're NOT a mason (I find scum mason Godfather a little out of whack for a Normal game) you're the obvious choice should either role be in the game.

You *could* also be an SK who decided to hold fire, but I have my doubts.

You may be right that we have a scum mason, especially given the interactions between MM and pickem that the PBPA picked up, but I'm not going to give you a pass on being scum at this stage just because you have an Innocent on you.

Third, a final piece of analysis:

I'm not entirely sure exactly what we're dealing with. We started with 15 players, so from a game balance perspective a 4-man scum team is somewhat overpowered... except that we have a lot of power roles.

The best candidates are Goon + Scum Mason, Goon + Godfather, Goon + Traitor, Goon + SK. Odds say that shaft.ed is fairly likely investigation-immune scum, MM's interactions suggest that pickem is the last scum.

After reread, I'm pretty sure that Surye is NOT scum. He led the Rosso wagon D2 (sorry, shaft.ed, you weren't the player who did the PBPA on Rosso) and MM actually came down on him D2.

Pickem could be scum, given how MM has treated him; I'd need to read his posts again to be sure. Right now I'm going to backtrack (again...) and say that as of now I think he's actually somewhat more likely to be scum than shaft.ed is, given how reluctant MM was to follow up on his pickem attacks (he did that to Rosso, though I will note now that he also FoS'ed ABR and camisade/xtoxm during D1 and never really followed up).

Shaft.ed *could* be scum (if so, he has to be investigation-immune); again, I'd need a reread to be sure.

MM is definitely scum.

[shaft.ed]

at how MM as scum fits: N1 kill Adel (duh),

I don't think Adel was the logical scum NK. Think you meant ABR.

Okay, so there's followup... but no pushing it later? That's a decided difference from how he pushed the Coolbot wagon. Also, if he is a daycop, why didn't he investigate pickem (or Rosso for that matter?) MM/Pickem is actually looking possible now.

I am seeing that as well. Need to look at MM's investigation list again. OK he investigates Tar Day2. I'll have to reread to see how logical that is in relation to his posting at the time. Certainly doesn't follow with his suspicions.

The crumbs, as I've shown above, could easily be nothing more than random posts dressed up as breadcrumbs

I've got to disagree with this one. If MM is faking he did a rather good job of setting up his claim.

I find scum mason Godfather a little out of whack for a Normal game

You haven't investigated either mason. This point is moot to say the least.

You *could* also be an SK who decided to hold fire, but I have my doubts.

Are you joking Gorrad already claimed the third party deaths.

[shaft.ed]

OK so what do people think about which pool to lynch from today? Seems if we lynch from the masons (or me) and we do it right, the other mason is confirmed and ends up dead during the night phase. If we lynch from the cops and do it right the other cop is confirmed and gets NK'd and we're left to decide from myself and the masons who's scum. The cop choice gives us the added benefit (or disadvantage if you suspect me a GF) of having an innocent on one of the three remaining players. If we take this at it's face value We've got a 50/50 shot of winning tommorow. On the other hand if we lynch from the mason/me pool and get it right we open tommorow with the two countering cops who have an inherent 50/50 shot without the assumption on the GF (but this assumes MM and Tar aren't bus'ing, which I'd say is about 98% safe to assume).

So doing the mason/me pool today would be a 50% chance at correctness from my or the masons perspective, but only 33% from the cops for today's lynch. With 50% odds tommorow.

Doing the cop pool today would be a 50% chance at correctness today from my/masons perspective with 100% chance from the real cop. With 50% odds on tommorow right ?(not sure how to factor in the worry of me being a GF into that equation although from my perspective it's a non-factor)

Are these numbers making sense to everyone, because they suggest we should lynch between MM and Tar today.

[Tarhalindur]

at how MM as scum fits: N1 kill Adel (duh),

I don't think Adel was the logical scum NK. Think you meant ABR.

Point, set, match, facepalm.

Okay, so there's followup... but no pushing it later? That's a decided difference from how he pushed the Coolbot wagon. Also, if he is a daycop, why didn't he investigate pickem (or Rosso for that matter?) MM/Pickem is actually looking possible now.

I am seeing that as well. Need to look at MM's investigation list again. OK he investigates Tar Day2. I'll have to reread to see how logical that is in relation to his posting at the time. Certainly doesn't follow with his suspicions.

The crumbs, as I've shown above, could easily be nothing more than random posts dressed up as breadcrumbs

I've got to disagree with this one. If MM is faking he did a rather good job of setting up his claim.

Not seeing it myself, especially for Day 3, and especially if Pickem is also scum - the claimed Day 3 crumb could easily have been originally intended as a way of getting off/delaying the bus, then later reinterpreted as a breadcrumb.

Day 2 is a somewhat stronger claimed crumb, but even that could be a reinterpretation of a post originally intended as a way to get onto a Tar wagon.

I find scum mason Godfather a little out of whack for a Normal game

You haven't investigated either mason. This point is moot to say the least.

Definition of a Normal game + several uncommon roles + game balance issues says otherwise (explain how Godfather-Mason plus 3 other scum plus three double-edged power roles [town Mason, Overeager Vig, FBI Agent] in a 15-player game is not at least somewhat unbalanced in the mafia's favor, even with cop+doc?).

You *could* also be an SK who decided to hold fire, but I have my doubts.

Are you joking Gorrad already claimed the third party deaths.

It's extremely unlikely but still a possibility (would require a third NK attempt on N1 that was blocked by either TS or ABR). I have seen an SK with optional kill hold fire for most of a game before - namely, The Fonz as Kinsey in Stargate SG-1.

[Tarhalindur]

Now, a far more important note:

Scum can win by deadline lynch by voting for me shortly before deadline hits. They can also win by stalling into No Lynch and killing me tonight.

As it now stands, I may need ,to switch to pushing a Pickem lynch on the grounds that if Pickem is town we've probably already lost (to shaft.ed/MM) because we can't lynch scum today. I will consider this overnight and post again tomorrow.

[Guardian]

Deadline is exactly 1 week's time from now.

So deadline is in a little over 2 day's time...

Sending a PM to all players. No extension(s).

[shaft.ed]

I'm almost inclined to go with Tar simply because he has the decency to post. At this time I would be willing to lynch MM. But I will not vote to avoid a scum quicklynch in case I am wrong. I will definitely be around before deadline to place a vote.

Can someone please look at my math I posted previous. Does it make the most sense to be lynching from the claimed cops at this point?

MM does have what looks to be breadcrumbs, while Tar claimed rather early so he didn't have to worry about them.

Tar do you have anything prior to your claim to hint at your role?

Definition of a Normal game + several uncommon roles + game balance issues says otherwise (explain how Godfather-Mason plus 3 other scum plus three double-edged power roles [town Mason, Overeager Vig, FBI Agent] in a 15-player game is not at least somewhat unbalanced in the mafia's favor, even with cop+doc?).

Again, you have yet to investigate a mason. I'm quite curious why you would claim there is a Godfather Mason when you have yet to investigate one.

[Surye]

Now, a far more important note:

Scum can win by deadline lynch by voting for me shortly before deadline hits. They can also win by stalling into No Lynch and killing me tonight.

As it now stands, I may need ,to switch to pushing a Pickem lynch on the grounds that if Pickem is town we've probably already lost (to shaft.ed/MM) because we can't lynch scum today. I will consider this overnight and post again tomorrow.

I'm pretty inclined to believe shaft.ed is town still. Your case against MM is pretty good. Given that, I'm thinking PEG/MM have to be it. I'd be willing to lynch PEG if that's what you and shaft.ed decide is best, as either is good to me (nothing particularly special about MM, I'm guessing he's a Goon).

[Surye]

Also, MM, would you be willing to lynch PEG? Any reason you see not to?

[shaft.ed]

Are MM and PEG even alive, WTF?

[Surye]

Their lack of activity leads me to be more suspicious of lurking to the deadline.

The only reason I bring up PEG over MM is that I feel pretty strong about them needing to be the combo, but that I am less comfortable lynching a claimed cop. Though if he's paranoid, then I suppose that doesn't mean much. Waiting on MM's answer to my question.

shaft.ed, tar, if everyone were L-1 right now, who would you want hammered.?

[Surye]

Their lack of activity leads me to be more suspicious of lurking to the deadline.

The only reason I bring up PEG over MM is that I feel pretty strong about them needing to be the combo, but that I am less comfortable lynching a claimed cop. Though if he's paranoid, then I suppose that doesn't mean much. Waiting on MM's answer to my question.

shaft.ed, tar, if everyone were L-1 right now, who would you want hammered.?

[Tarhalindur]

I'm almost inclined to go with Tar simply because he has the decency to post. At this time I would be willing to lynch MM. But I will not vote to avoid a scum quicklynch in case I am wrong. I will definitely be around before deadline to place a vote.

Can someone please look at my math I posted previous. Does it make the most sense to be lynching from the claimed cops at this point?

MM does have what looks to be breadcrumbs, while Tar claimed rather early so he didn't have to worry about them.

Tar do you have anything prior to your claim to hint at your role?

You did read my big summary post, right? The one where I pointed out several crumbs on Day 2? There's none from Day 1, though, because I was almost entirely inactive during Day 1

Definition of a Normal game + several uncommon roles + game balance issues says otherwise (explain how Godfather-Mason plus 3 other scum plus three double-edged power roles [town Mason, Overeager Vig, FBI Agent] in a 15-player game is not at least somewhat unbalanced in the mafia's favor, even with cop+doc?).

Again, you have yet to investigate a mason. I'm quite curious why you would claim there is a Godfather Mason when you have yet to investigate one.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt here and conclude that you misread my post here. I'm saying that it is EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL that there is a mason Godfather for game balance reasons (which is why, if there is a Godfather in the game, it's you).

[shaft.ed]

Tar, I forgot about the crumbs you pointed out sorry. I'll reread them.

And I don't know why you are stuck on having a Godfather. I'd say scum masons are just as likely/easy to hide as a Godfather. Of course if there's a Godfather in the game it's me (or perhaps you if MM is a true paranoid/insane cop), but for what reason do you feel the need to continuously speculate on the Godfather business?

[Tarhalindur]

Their lack of activity leads me to be more suspicious of lurking to the deadline.

The only reason I bring up PEG over MM is that I feel pretty strong about them needing to be the combo, but that I am less comfortable lynching a claimed cop. Though if he's paranoid, then I suppose that doesn't mean much. Waiting on MM's answer to my question.

shaft.ed, tar, if everyone were L-1 right now, who would you want hammered.?

If everyone was at L-1 I would want MM lynched, for what are hopefully obvious reasons. As it stands, I'm 99.9% sure that MM is scum and only ~70% sure that pickem is scum (other 30% is shaft.ed).

Unfortunately, as it stands, after thinking it over, I don't think we're going to get a lynch unless pickem is scum. In the interests of trying to get a scum lynch today...

Unvote, Vote: pickemgenius

If the scum are shaft.ed and MM, I congratulate them on winning through lurkerkilling.

[shaft.ed]

I'm 99.9% sure that MM

What's the 0.01%?

Unfortunately, as it stands, after thinking it over, I don't think we're going to get a lynch unless pickem is scum. In the interests of trying to get a scum lynch today...

I don't get this play Tar.

Please look at my numbers again and get back to me as to why we should be lynching MM or you today. No one has said anything about that analysis although I've asked repeatedly.

If the scum are shaft.ed and MM, I congratulate them on winning through lurkerkilling.

Even if I were scum, this is a low blow to accuse me of lurkerkilling.

[Surye]

I'm 99.9% sure that MM

What's the 0.01%?

The odds that he is a Paranoid Day Cop Miller?

Talk about metabreaking, haha.

[Toaster Strudel]

Belated back from vacation "bah."

[Surye]

Well, incase it comes to deadline and this inactivity is still ruling the game,

Vote: PEG

as I've stated, it only makes sense for him to be scum.

[shaft.ed]

I'd rather lynch MM at this point. Is anyone ever going to look at my post with numbers in it?

[shaft.ed]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

[Surye]

I'd rather lynch MM at this point. Is anyone ever going to look at my post with numbers in it?

I looked at it. The problem with is that it assumes we only have raw statistics to work from. But there are many unquantifiable aspects to this situation. All your numbers are saying is that there is scum in us 3, and them 2. But even this isn't 100%, as maybe both cops are valid, and the scum is you and peg. As you said, cop bus is very unlikely here, so the odds that if both scum are on one side or the other is higher on the 3 man side. Also, I trust you're town more then I trust peg, but I'm not 100% convinced MM is scum. So for me, all the overlap lies on PEG, which is why I feel safest there.

[Surye]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

[Surye]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

[Surye]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

Sorry for the triple post, but the simulpost threw off my thought train

My point is that this eliminates shaft.ed+tar and shaft.ed+mm, which highlights peg.