First - I admit freely that my play has been horrible this game. I've been on the verge of flaking for much of the game, I've misinvestigated twice (ABR and TS) due to not paying attention, the timing of proving I'm Sane is horrible, and my play has been wretched at best.
There's really only two things in my favor:
1) Breadcrumbs. I didn't feel the need to point them out when I originally claimed, but they are there. First:
Note the specific wording "I would have to be insane to think otherwise". This was an explicit reference to the fact that I could reasonable conclude (due to ABR being dead as town) that I was not - indeed, am not - Insane or Paranoid.Tarhalindur wrote:Prodded, Surye claim noted - that's what I was after.
Surye's mason claim can be confirmed or disproved by the other mason if necessary, so I am inclined to believe it. We can deal with the possibility of a scum mason later (Surye, is your mason partner mod-confirmed innocent?).
I failed to notice Xtoxm's FBI Agent claim earlier. I would like to take the time to note that I believe the claim - in fact, in my opinion, I would have to be insane to think otherwise.
Given deadline and my limited access,for the time being I'll fall back on one of my other preferences for lynch - Gorrad, whose play feels off this game (and whose predecessor, Ecto, read scum while he was playing). After further consideration of the situation, I'd rather deal with Elias a bit later.
Unvote, Vote: Gorrad
Second:
Big fat obvious power role crumb, and further support for the claim that mirrored my own role.Tarhalindur wrote:Points against Gorrad: Ecto (who Gorrad replaced) helped derail the first Surye wagon (I've said it before, and I'll say it again - any wagon that reaches L-2 in a game with at least 10 players alive needs to end in a claim), used a playstyle consisting of lots of questions and vote/bandwagon jumps with little explanation (coming from Ecto, that's scummy as all hell), and all-but-ignored Adel despite helping her with the Surye derail (again, consistent with Ecto scum). Gorrad is not nearly as bad, but he bandwagoned heavily, especially at the start of Day 2 (somewhat unusual coming from Gorrad - from what I've seen, he usually stays focused on a single player).
The other big point against Gorrad is that all other easily attainable lynches have major problems (Xtoxm looks all-but-clear to me at the moment, Surye can confirm himself via his partner, I can pretty much clear myself by claim if needed). I'd also support an Elias lynch, but there's no support for that.
Note the "since the beginning of the day" part of this quote. Note that I figured out that I could not detect SK if one existed because of my result from N1.Tarhalindur wrote:The more important factors for me are that 1) Ecto was, as far as I am concerned, scummy as all hell (not your fault, but you still pay the price for the actions of your predecessor) and 2) I can't see another good preexisting wagon at this point (I have explained why the other three wagons are bad, and I know of no reason why your lynch would be as bad as the three I mentioned), and with deadline a preexisting wagon is our best bet IMO.Gorrad wrote:Joyous, so the one point against me specifically is that I bandwagoned. That's easily explainable, I actually took good notes during this readthrough. Therefore, because I had notes on hand, I was comfortable voting those I mentioned as scummy. Typically, I don't have notes nearly as good at this, so I'll find one very scummy player and not remember much about others. Not exactly a good strategy, hence the change. Other points I can't defend against, as I didn't cause them.
Also, as much as I hate to admit it, Tar's second paragraph does make sense. He didn't mention the posibility of him being lynched, naturally, but too many people seem to have fallen for Xtoxm's fakeclaim for an Xtoxm lynch to be viable. Ah well, we'll see.
Also, unless you have an ability that can find the SK or you know that the SK is investigation immune (for that second one, read: you are the SK), GTFO Xtoxm. Since the beginning of the day, I have strongly suspected that there is an SK-specific investigation role, and so far nobody else has claimed to be that role.
In other news, shaft.ed just took a HUGE jump onto my scumdar for his new crypto tangent (which feels REALLY odd to me - it looks like an attack, but shaft.ed's heart doesn't seem to be in it... possible Information Instead of Analysis?). I need to do a fast read and compare his play here to his play in Open 57 (where he was scum).FoS: shaft.ed
Finally, as for shaft.ed's question: An Adel/Ecto scumpair could have derailed the Surye wagon for townie points. For that matter, while Surye is not a good lynch for today, I won't consider him completely clear unless I hear that the masons are confirmed innocent (which Surye has so far failed to do).
Next post was a fullclaim, so crumbs end here.
Second, a metagame (and therefore somewhat unreliable) argument: Can you point out an occasion where I could conceivably have bussed a buddy in this game? If you look at my finished games as Mafia scum, you'll noticed that one of the defining traits of Tar as Mafia is bussing a buddy (Tool in SG-1, TG in Mini 547, skitzer in Mafia 76, etc.).
Now, let's take a look at how MM as scum fits: N1 kill Adel (duh), N2 try to kill the Cop (stopped by Doc), N3 kill Kison for unknown reason (suspect he's a second cop?), D4 claim a role that's an exact mirror of mine to try to skate to endgame, N4 kill TS (no second Cop).
In addition, MM's behavior is, if possible, WORSE than mine:
I should have caught this several days ago (say, when Rosso came up scum). This looks like MM advising a fellow scum under the guise of scumhunting.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:Are you saying that everyone needs to vote before the random stage is over?Rosso Carne has not voted yet... I'd like to get out of the random stage, thank you very much nicely.
Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:I am not buying farside's wagon due to the link in her sig.
And with the deadline coming up, I do not see myself moving my vote away from CoolBot unless somebody quickly becomes extremely scummy.
Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:Since the alignment of both Albert and Adel are currently unknown, I consider their war of words to be a null tell. So I still like CoolBot as the best lynch.
Pushing the Coolbot lynch (which is just as explainable from scum pushing a mislynch as it is explainable as daycop with a bad guilty).Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:The most recent exchanges gave me town vibes from both ABR and Elias. On the other hand CoolBot is overwhelmingly on top with his defeatist "I'm expendable" comment.
The biggest things off here are MM's hypocrisy (indirectly attacking players for being on the Coolbot wagon when he was a major force behind the Coolbot wagon himself), unwillingness to commit to attacking any player (finding two players scum, one player neutral, and one player not scummy enough to vote is borderline IIoA) and FoS'ing Pickem instead of voting him (I suspect either not wanting to step on toes or bussing).Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:First I'm taking a look at the CoolBot wagons, which likely have scum.
CoolBot reaches L-1 in VC#8: {Surye, shaft.ed, Albert, Ectomancer, Adel, pickemgenius, Machiavellian-Mafia}
CoolBot is lynched VC#20 {pickemgenius, Machiavellian-Mafia, shaft.ed, Surye, the silent speaker, Kison, farside22, Adel/Gorrad*}
*Adel actually hammered first but misspelled vote. Gorrad successfully hammered.
Common players among both wagons: {MM, PEG, Surye, Shaft.ed, Ecto/Gorrad}
PEG - Generally non-contributor during D1. Full of one-liners. No reasoning whatsoever. Leaning scum.FOS: PEG
Surye - Defended himself well against early D1 attacks and justified his suspicions towards CoolBot. Leaning town.
Shaft.ed - One of the most protown players thus far. Had valid reasons for CoolBot vote. Leaning town.
Ecto/Gorrad - Ecto was a little bit better than PEG, but still a general non-contributor. Gorrad seems to be an improvement, but currently there are too few posts from Gorrad to make judgement. Neutral.
Okay, so there's followup... but no pushing it later? That's a decided difference from how he pushed the Coolbot wagon. Also, if he is a daycop, why didn't he investigate pickem (or Rosso for that matter?) MM/Pickem is actually looking possible now.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:PEG has not done anything recently to change my mind about his lack of contributions a.k.a. lurking in plain sight, sovote: PEG.
Yet another FoS, this time on Rosso (a known scum) with no followup until the deadline wagon. In the meantime, he goes after Surye (the mason who is actually more likely to be town) with relatively detailed reasoning. I call bussing.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:After rereading, I find Rosso's play to be just as bad as PEG's. He always seemed to push for certain players' lynches without backing them up with votes. FOS: Rosso
I also revisited the derailment of the Surye wagon, and I find some validity in the Adel/Surye connection. Adel first derails that wagon by subtly complying with ABR's request of "we should all lower our guns", then immediately switches to me for the misrepresented reason of "putting him at L-1" when my vote was L-2. After that Adel fakes re-voting Surye, as if to paint the picture he is trying to undo the derailment. Then the CoolBot wagon gained strength with Adel hopping onto that as well, and Adel rarely if ever mentioned Surye again.
Thus,Unvote, Vote: Surye. I believe that's L-2.
Next, let's take a look at MM L-1'ing Rosso Carne:
Big problem here: the poorly explained L-1 vote (I've already shown how bad the "prior suspicion" was. If there's one place where I'd expect scum to be on an end-of-day wagon on scum, it's near the end (bussing).Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:I think it makes the most sense for an SK to react strongly to that claim to try to discredit the SK investigator. Now taking into account Gorrad's overeager vig claim, I find it more likely that one of Xtoxm and Gorrad is lying, rather than both claiming truth. I buy Tar's claim.Gorrad wrote:MM why do you think he's a likely SK? That's a big stretch based off of a single comment in my eyes.
I can go with the plan regarding Gorrad and Xtoxm. I also have no problem with a Rosso lynch, as I have expressed suspicion before and Surye made some valid analysis. I believe this vote will be the 6th vote, or L-1:Unvote, Vote: Rosso
Do NOT like this post - it's consistent with scum who wants rival scum dead. Also note how he IS willing to go after Gorrad as opposed to a few other players (ABR, PEG, and Rosso mainly) - that looks suspiciously like how I played in Stargate SG-1 (bus partner weakly while finding reasons to go after the Replicators).Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:GorradSK is in full desperation mode now, so he should be the lynch today. But I agree with shaft.ed that we need to have everyone post before lynching Gorrad. There's 10 alive, so it's 6 to lynch and Gorrad already has 4 votes.
I failed to follow up on this at the time due to a bout of flakage. The belated response: 1) Rosso really didn't have that much suspicion on him at the time, and just because other players express suspicion about a player does not mean that it's not suspicious that you suddenly notice something that actually is scummy, FoS, and don't follow up on it - in fact, it looks like bussing. 2) That's actually misrepresenting your own reasoning - quoted above.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:I see your "thin air" comment as a misrepresentation. During one of my rereads yesterday I found Rosso to be as scummy as PEG since they were both severe non-contributors. Also I remember a couple of other players express suspicions about Rosso before I did.Tar wrote:MM - Defended farside on the same reasons that Adel did. FoS'ed Rosso Carne out of what seems to be thin air, then voted him at deadline. If there is a non-Mafia mafia-aligned role, I'd say he's it.
Let's see: suspicions are pickem + two other players. Bussing? Anyone want to bet that he's going to back off of Pickem? Oh wait, that's a sucker bet...Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:I currently like PEG, TS, and Elias as scum candidates, in that order, since they have all been pretty much nonexistent in terms of contributing, especially recently. I'll jump on TS wagon and pressure him.Vote: TS
Claimed breadcrumb, but also could very easily be scum backing off of the partner he's bussing. Also, this is the second time he's abandoned pickem suspicions.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:I did a reread on my top 3 suspects and I view PEG in a more positive light now. So I like TS lynch + Gorrad killing Elias.
Setting up the claim...Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:Besides Gorrad, I currently suspect shaft.ed, surye, and TS, in that order, based on process of elimination and role based info.
And I have no problem with mass claiming now.
... and the claim. It's rather convenient that it's an exact mirror of my own claim - since it's all-but-certain that exactly one of myself and MM is scum, either I managed to mirror MM's role when I claimed despite having absolutely no reasonable way of knowing what his role was, or MM made his claim as a mirror of mine in order to try to slip through to endgame.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:Claim: insane or paranoid daycop
Initially I was not told of my sanity, but I figured it out through my investigations that I have to be either insane or paranoid.
Day 1: Investigated CoolBot because of his claim-demanding scummy behavior and got mafia/guilty, thus my aggressiveness towards getting him lynched is the breadcrumb.
Day 2: Investigated Tar due to strong suspicion at that time and got mafia/guilty. I recall 1 post in which I said "specifically" look at Tar, which was the breadcrumb. Also after Tar claimed, I said "buy" instead of "currently buy" for the claim, which breadcrumbed that I have very strong belief in the claim due to my investigation and Tar's claimed flavor matching mine.
Day 3: Investigated PEG due to strong suspicion and got mafia/guilty. I recall 1 post in which I said "I see PEG in a more positive light", which was the breadcrumb.
I think my role is more likely to be insane than paranoid because I believe Tar and PEG to be town. Hopefully my investigation for today can result in a not mafia/innocent.
The crumbs, as I've shown above, could easily be nothing more than random posts dressed up as breadcrumbs (with the exception of the last crumb, by which point MM had presumably decided on a claim).
This, in fact, was one of the two reasons to investigate MM last night: his role was so close to mine that his claim was the most likely falseclaim. The other reason to do so was because an innocent on MM would mean that the two cops combined had investigated every player in the game and gotten the same result for each investigation, which I would have considered evidence of naive Cop/paranoid Daycop if it had come to pass.
Second: shaft.ed, there are two dead Mafia Goons and I have a Guilty on a third. In addition, I just proved myself Sane. I'm definitely NOT going to rule out an investigation-immune scum (either Godfather or Traitor), and since you're NOT a mason (I find scum mason Godfather a little out of whack for a Normal game) you're the obvious choice should either role be in the game.
You *could* also be an SK who decided to hold fire, but I have my doubts.
You may be right that we have a scum mason, especially given the interactions between MM and pickem that the PBPA picked up, but I'm not going to give you a pass on being scum at this stage just because you have an Innocent on you.
Third, a final piece of analysis:
I'm not entirely sure exactly what we're dealing with. We started with 15 players, so from a game balance perspective a 4-man scum team is somewhat overpowered... except that we have a lot of power roles.
The best candidates are Goon + Scum Mason, Goon + Godfather, Goon + Traitor, Goon + SK. Odds say that shaft.ed is fairly likely investigation-immune scum, MM's interactions suggest that pickem is the last scum.
After reread, I'm pretty sure that Surye is NOT scum. He led the Rosso wagon D2 (sorry, shaft.ed, you weren't the player who did the PBPA on Rosso) and MM actually came down on him D2.
Pickem could be scum, given how MM has treated him; I'd need to read his posts again to be sure. Right now I'm going to backtrack (again...) and say that as of now I think he's actually somewhat more likely to be scum than shaft.ed is, given how reluctant MM was to follow up on his pickem attacks (he did that to Rosso, though I will note now that he also FoS'ed ABR and camisade/xtoxm during D1 and never really followed up).
Shaft.ed *could* be scum (if so, he has to be investigation-immune); again, I'd need a reread to be sure.
MM is definitely scum.