Mini 642: Bodyguard 7: (Game Over)

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
Slaine Hayes (2): TDC, BridgesAndBaloons
BridgesAndBaloons (2): TheSweatPantsNinja, Alabaska J
TDC (1): Slaine Hayes
jonathantan86 (1): CallMeLiam
TheSweatpantsNinja (1): jonathantan86

Not voting: No one

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

[Alabaska J]

Also, "baloons" has two l's although I'm sure that's just part of whatever you are referencing.

[TDC]

Yeah, the missing "l" makes me read "Baboons" whenever I read his name.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

vote: BaB

Really feels like scum to me hiding behind a strategy that would help the town. Note: not using too townie, as things he has said make me feel this way.

Okay. So I'm scum because... why? You failed to mention anything scummy about me. I really don't feel like this is a pro-town vote.

Also, I would like you to explain the maths that make it possible for us to automatically win and whatnot. I don't doubt you, I'm just bad at this kind of stuff usually.

that makes it a tie between yes and no. I'm now changing my answer to yes to explain since I worked really hard. So I'm going to write out all the reasons now.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm also changing my answer to yes because I changed my mind. I now think that it's relatively easy for mafia to figure out what to do to benefit them the most.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

^that was phrased badly. I was thinking about the situations and it's obvious what scum have to do to hurt them the least.

A:

Why we automatically win if we lynch a scum night 1 and if scum don’t kill the cop or bodyguard N1:

If the remaining scum doesn’t kill the bodyguard or cop, that means they killed a townie, so on Day 2, we are left with 1 Townie, 1 Bodyguard, 1 Cop, and 1 mafia.Once the body guard and cop claim, we are left with two sets of possibilities:

1) If the scum counter-claims the cop or bodyguard, we simply lynch one of them on day 2. After that we will have 3 people left on day 3 and we will lynch the scum that survived

2) If the scum do not counterclaim, then we just lynch one of the two townies or the scum. It doesn’t matter who we lynch because…
i) if we lynch scum, then we win!
ii) if we lynch a townie, then over the night we have 1 townie, 1 mafia, 1 cop, and 1 bodyguard. The bodyguard will protect the cop, and the cop investigates the either the mafia member or townie (doesn’t know which is which). Once the cop finds the alignment of one, he automatically knows the alignment of the other. He will automatically be alive the next day and use his investigation to win the game.

Awesome! If we lynch correctly today and get lucky over night, we don’t have to even scum-hunt again!

B:

Why it really benefits town for the cop and bodyguard to claim if they're both alive alive, but two townies have been NKed.

1) if there are no counter claims, then we are left with 1 Townie and 2 mafia members, 1 cop, and 1 bodyguard. We now have a 66% to win. If we lynch a mafia member Day 2, then the bodyguard protects the cop and the cop investigates one of two players (the mafia and the townie), and then knows which of the other ones to kill. The bodyguard will be NKed and Day 3 cop knows who scum is. If we mislynch on Day 2, then we automatically lose (scum has a 50% of town which is a win).
Good news! If the cop investigated one scum, the other scum, or the townie that isn't Nked or the bodyguard (3/5 people), then we automatically can correcly lynch day 2. This has a 60% of occuring. So we actually have a

86.7% chance of winning!

Math:

there's 3/5 a chance of a cop investigation over night 1 meaning a guaranteed win. There's a 2/5 chance that the cop's investigate doesn't do us any good. From the 2/5 multiply by 66% for the times we correctly lynch a mafia day 2 and add that win percent to the chance of us winning if the cop investigation is helpful

2) If the mafia counter-claim, we get a 50% chance of winning. We must lynch one of the people who claimed cop to win the game afterwards. If we lynch the correct scum on that day, then we are left with one confirmed townie (the one that wasn't claiming a power role), and two people who claimed bodyguard. The real bodyguard protects the cop while he investigates one of the people who claimed bodyguard and learns who the final scum is.

C:

Why it benefits the town if the bodyguard and cop claim if a mafia has been lynched day 1, but one of them (the power roles) has been NKed

.

1)We would be left with 3 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 bodyguard/cop. The reason the cop/bodyguard claim is to increase our chances of lynched the scum 5%. We have a 1/4 chance of lynching scum and winning on day 2. If we mislynch, after that we have a 33% of lynching the correct mafia member. This makes us have a

50% of winning

2)If the scum counter-claim, then we win automatically. We have 2 free lynches so we just flip a coin and lynch one of the power-role claimers on Day 2 and lynch the other on Day 3.

3) There is also a 3/5 chance of a cop investigating a townie who isn't NKed over night 1. If they survive they claim there result and then we boost our chances to 1/3 lynching scum and winning on day 2, and if we mislynch after that, we have a 50% chance of lynching the correct mafia member. This gives us a 66% of winning.
There is a also a 2/5 chance of a cop investigate a mafia. If they survive then we automatically win.
There is a 1/5 chance that the cop's investigation is useless, and we'd only get a 50% of winning.
So, if the cop is alive Day 2, the bodyguard was NKed, and a scum was lynched day 1, we really have a

70% to win

IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN MY MATH, PLEASE LET ME KNOW! IF YOU WANT ME TO ELABORATE ON SOME OF MY MATH (I did it most on paper except for one of the first examples), LET ME KNOW AND I WILL.

[bird1111]

Prodding jonathantan86 and Slaine Hayes

[BridgesAndBaloons]

SHITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT. I messed up the numbers. AH!!!!!!!!!!

B 1 is completely incorrect. I didn't realize that mislynch day 2 makes us lose.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Okay I realized that I don't have a mistake.

B 1 is NOT completely incorrect

Sorry. My previous post is wrong and unnecessary. I was misreading my numbers when I posted post 82.

Anyway....
I forgot about the last situation.

D:

Why it benefits town (but not always) to have the remaining power role claim if one power role is NKed and we lose a townie in lynch"

This situation, like situation B, puts us in LYLO on Day 2. If the bodyguard/cop doesn't claim, then we have a 2/5 chance of lynching scum. However, if the bodyguard/cop claims, then we have a 2/4 chance of lynching scum. Even if one of the scum counter-claim, then we still have a 50% of lynching scum on Day 1. We gain a

10% increase

of not losing on Day 2.
HOWEVER; if the bodyguard is alive, they can choose to not claim. The disadvantage is it is harder to lynch correctly on Day 2, however, if the bodyguard survives to Day 3, we can increase our chances from 33% to 50% of lynching scum. I recommend for the bodyguard to claim Day 2, but it REALLY depends on the situation.
If the Cop is alive and has a result on one of the players that is alive, he should definitely claim and reveal his result. If he doesn't have a result on one of the alive players, he could also choose to wait until day 3 to claim.

Personally, I'd rather have a greater chance to make it to day 3 then to have a greater chance to win during Day 3 (i.e. have the bodyguard and cop claim Day 2 in this situation), but it really is up to the bodyguard/cop and the situation. Also, I may actually be the bodyguard/cop, and I'm making sure that both scum and the town know that I'm not claiming that I have a power role or not right now.


There are a couple of incredibly important things:
1)

PLEASE

nobody say who you think is town. Like in normal games it tells scum who to NK, but in this game in particular, if people say one of the scum seems town-like, then they know who to use to counter-claim a power role, if they choose to do so.
2) Remember, in these statistics, they do not take into account scum-hunting. Only b1 and c3 take into account who the cop investigates, and all the other situations do not. So these % are actually considerabally higher. Hopefully you see that the town has a very significant chance of winning this game if we don't lose both of our power roles by Day 2.

[TDC]

HOWEVER; if the bodyguard is alive, they can choose to not claim. The disadvantage is it is harder to lynch correctly on Day 2

Not really, he could still claim at L-1.

[CallMeLiam]

unvote, vote: Alabaska J

Votes for players that are 'too townie' I do not like.

As for BaB's strategy and math (not helped by the use of some tiny text btw) it looks solid enough. I'd rather not rely on it and scumhunt as much as possible first, but it's nice to know we're at a slight tactical advantage. I'm not too happy that you explained what the the best play for the mafia is re: the maths of the counterclaim but I suppose it wouldn't have been too hard for scum to work out with all the other info in front of them.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm not too happy that you explained what the the best play for the mafia is re: the maths of the counterclaim but I suppose it wouldn't have been too hard for scum to work out with all the other info in front of them.

That was why I was at first reluctant to share all the information, but I realized that it's pretty obvious (at least for me) without even doing the math that scum need to counter-claim.

What about my vote for you? Nothing to say about that?

Also, my math isn't meant to guide who to lynch. Most scenarios come down to a 50/50 shot which makes it really important that we scum-hunt pretty well. I'm just thinking that it

might

(just might) be worth it to ask a random person to claim today. It's really risky, but it could win us the game. Anyway, I don't want to side-track the game with all these numbers and theory and stuff, I want to get to scum-hunting.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I'm just thinking that it might (just might) be worth it to ask a random person to claim today.

Um. . . a

random

person? What would that possibly be worth? Shouldn't we ask, say, the scummiest person around to claim? Like whoever we wagon?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Obviously whoever we push to L-1 (the scummiest) should claim, but I was talking about rolling dice and asking that person to claim.
I did the math, and it is not a good move for town.
Math in small font:

If we asked a

random

person to claim whether they were a power role or not, we'd have a 2/7 chance of getting a mafia. Them claiming townie would make them unable to claim a power role later, and them claiming power role could help us get an easy win lynch with a power role counter-claim.
Of course, I realized we have a 2/7 chance of asking a power role to claim. The results of that would be

catastrophic

for town.
Also, 3/7 chance of a townie claiming which would help scum know who to NK.
Bottom of the line, it's not worth the risk.

The reason I made the math small is because I don't want people to accuse me as looking like I'm helping the town. I'm not going to lie, this post is largely useless, except for this next part:

Something useful I learned from this is that we should

not

ride a wagon until someone claims. To benefit town the most, there should probably only be one claim the first day. See above logic (quote it to see it better) to understand better.

[CallMeLiam]

What about my vote for you? Nothing to say about that?

Well you explained why you did it, you then behaved consistently with your motivation by unvoting after a reaction appeared and it didn't start a cushy bandwagon so I didn't think it needed too much comment.

I'm a bit iffy on the whole 'asking a random person to claim' thing, because maths or no I don't like people claiming outside of a mass claim or near-lynch situation. For now, I'm waiting on a pick-up in posting from the quieter players (this includes me, I know and I'm sorry but busy few days) so I can find a stronger tell than what I found from Alabaska.

[TDC]

Something useful I learned from this is that we should

not

ride a wagon until someone claims. To benefit town the most, there should probably only be one claim the first day. See above logic (quote it to see it better) to understand better.

This is true for nearly every game of mafia and not at all specific to this setup.
(And why you even considered asking a random person for a claim is well beyond me.)

I see no reason why we should not play this game as every other: Find out who's scummy and when we're reasonably certain, ask them to claim.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Well you explained why you did it, you then behaved consistently with your motivation by unvoting after a reaction appeared and it didn't start a cushy bandwagon so I didn't think it needed too much comment.

Haha, I

totally

forgot about unvoting. That's strange.

The whole random person is a further attempt for me to try and swing the game in the town's favor again, but if you read the math on post 88, it is really not in favor of the town.

Anyway, I agree. I'm going to stop working on numbers and strategies for this game and focus on actually

playing

.

Mod: How long do you give players to respond to there prods?

72 hours generally (though I'm probably going to do it an hour or two earlier than that due to likely not being on the computer then)

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

The reason I made the math small is because I don't want people to accuse me as looking like I'm helping the town.

The logic of this is dizzying.

[jonathantan86]

Sorry. Will reread and post.

[jonathantan86]

Using BaB's numbers:

Code: Select all

Lynch  Townie(3/5)   Scum(2/5)
NK     T(2/4) P(2/4) T(3/5) P(2/5)  (T=townie, P=power role)
       (6/20) (6/20) (6/25) (4/25)
       0.30   0.30   0.24   0.16

       86.7%  50%    100%   70%

Notice that if we lynch scum and a power role gets killed by the mafia, the town has a 70% chance of winning. And if we lynch town and a townie gets killed, we have a 86.7% chance of winning.

This might show that scum is willing to spur conversation in order to "out" a power role, and is willing to take the risk of similarly "outing" one of its members because the numbers favour this strategy. So the numbers say that it's quite possible that BaB is scum using this strategy, and it's quite obvious that he's aware of all these. If BaB is scum, he would probably have thought of all this beforehand and instructed his scum partner to lie low to avoid detection. So far the person who has lain low the most is Slaine Hayes, and BaB might have tried to pseudo-bus Slaine Hayes in his vote.

And since this is already page 4, it's time to take off my random vote.

Unvote

[BridgesAndBaloons]

So the numbers say that it's quite possible that BaB is scum using this strategy

No. The numbers explain that thanks to me bringing up something important the town has a guranteed 50% or higher of winning (assuming both power roles aren't killed by Day 2).

Somehow you think that

A)

I

think that a power role is idiotic enough to mention something that would reveal themselves to be a power role. Are you serious? Is anyone here so dimwitted they're going show whether their a power role or not based on their responses to this? There's absolutely nothing they'd do different if they're a powerrole or not. Regardless whether I was power role or vanilla, I'd still post the numbers.

and
B) that I am idiotic enough to believe that my master scum-plan will work. I'm not an idiot.

Give me at least one example of something that could give away a power role by discussing what I'm talking about. It has to be an easy mistake. And please cite evidence of me trying to get a powerrole to come out.

This aint OMGUS. I don't care that you're attacking me, but you're attack is

such a huge stretch

. I can't believe you're not only attacking me for being scum, but accusing me of having a particular partner, Slain (Other people have been lying low also),

and

you're not even voting for me.

Vote:jonathan

for all the reasons mentioned above.

[CallMeLiam]

I have to say Jonathan, the bussing Slaine Hayes thing looks very weak to me. I'm very wary of people using low activity as a reason for suspicion.
Of course it's entirely possible that BaB is scum and throwing all this up to make himself look very townie, but that's not the vibe I'm getting.

AS for the power role fishing thing, I can see why it might look like fishing (he does talk about power an awful lot) but aside from considering whether or not a random claim would be helpful he hasn't really looked like he wants anyone to say anything.

Even dropping hints could be disastrous for power in this game, so I really hope the bodyguard keeps quiet.

[CallMeLiam]

EBWOP: and the cop also of course.

[Alabaska J]

unvote, vote: Alabaska J

Votes for players that are 'too townie' I do not like.

Said it wasn't for too townie, blatant misrepresentation is a great D1 scumtell.

unvote, vote: CallMeLiam

[TDC]

Uh.

Really feels like scum to me hiding behind a strategy that would help the town. Note: not using too townie, as things he has said make me feel this way.

Yes, you said it wasn't "too townie". What was it then though?
Or to ask more to the point: What made you feel this what not town trying to help the town, but scum trying to pretend to help the town?