Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 2.1

Almost50

............

(1):

Ydrasse (953)

RCEnigma

............

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (988)

Not Voting

..........

(10):

Umlaut, Something_Smart, Eevee, Snowblaze, Menalque, RCEnigma, Montosh, Titus, Raya36, Almost50

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

[RCEnigma]

Eevee talk to me about your early Homura read because I agreed initially and idk if it was just weak reasoning that led me there or it's just as simple as menalque being mohabs partner.

[Eevee]

looking back at Homura's posts i still think they're pretty towny - even her take on Craig showed nuance
Almo has this habit of hard defending town in a way which looks like white knighting sometimes actually... i wouldn't say he's scummy for the way he defended you
he's more scummy for the reasoning he was using to vote snow towards the end - can't remember exactly but soemthing about proving to Titus that her VCA was wrong by flipping snow?

~Eve

[Eevee]

I have a secret tell on Menalque which is that he would feel bad hardbussing a partner like Mohab. I guess it's possible he was just wrong, but yeah, this what I expect from scum!Menalque.

~Eva

[Eevee]

Something_Smart when you get here let me know how you feel about Almo

~Eve

[Menalque]

I have a secret tell on Menalque which is that he would feel bad hardbussing a partner like Mohab. I guess it's possible he was just wrong, but yeah, this what I expect from scum!Menalque.

~Eva

That’s interesting, because mohab is exactly the sort of person I probably would hardbus. If you look at the games where I commit to bussing it’s nearly always (the person is going down anyway, I perceive them as weak but also uncommunicative)

I don’t think I’ve ever bussed outside of those two ideas

Very clearly illustrated if you look at plotinus’ Hungarian mafia 1 (in which I wanted to save suji but he wasn’t talking to me in PT so I bussed him) and in team mafia (where I didn’t have a lot of faith in my scumteam to perform against the PL and hardbussed both of them out of the gate)

[Menalque]

You’re right that if mohab was indicating to me in the scum PT that she wanted to play and was being enthusiastic that I’d try to save her though, yes

[RCEnigma]

I was searching for that word. It somehow didn't show in my inner-mind dictionary.

But you know what I meant, so all is good.

And I would rather you considered scum!Mohab now too, but I can't make you. I mean, a scum flip on D1 is almost a town win (considering 5 players would be confirmed)

I mean I think this is kind of townie for how close to mohabs flip this is.

My thing is I don't really think A50 is that scummy I just don't think he's that townie either. At default I'm kind of inclined to lean town only because his defense of me biases me that way. But if me + A50 is the pushable solve there has to be some distance for me, if that makes sense.

[Menalque]

I’m going to take a breather from posting and let the townbloc talk with itself a little. I’ll still be reading if you need answers on anything immediately of concern

The last thing to mention re: me — if you decide to flip me today I won’t fight it, likewise for tomorrow although I will be a little annoyed. However, if you (referring to the townbloc) decide that you’re confident enough in town!me to bring me through both today AND tomorrow then I will fight tooth and nail not to be the game-losing mis-guillo on D4

So basically, I’m saying I think one thing on your agenda should be deciding (not immediately, but over the course of the day) if you can confidently believe I’m town or if you think i will always be a big worry to you and throw off your ability to confidently read in the rest of the potential scum names. If you think I will always be a concern, I think you should seriously consider removing me from the equation today or tomorrow to avoid the GyLo issue

[Raya36]

Raya why do you think you're not a performer for the play? you still have front row seats don't get me wrong so treat this as a fun question

Sorry completely missed this.

My guess is one of you don't like me or you don't know what my avatar is from to get a cool performance picture

[Eevee]

Raya why do you think you're not a performer for the play? you still have front row seats don't get me wrong so treat this as a fun question

Sorry completely missed this.

My guess is one of you don't like me or you don't know what my avatar is from to get a cool performance picture

the performers = people confirmed as town lol

~Eve

[Eevee]

Montosh
Menalque
Smarty
Almo
RCEnigma

has both scum probably - as long as we don't mislynch all of the townies in that group we got this

~Eve

[Montosh]

So we've got:

{Raya
Ydrasse
Something_Smart
RCEnigma
Montosh
Almost50
Menalque }

Am I missing anyone? I don't think so.

[Montosh]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

I mean self-meta ain't that useful but if you want to use it than feel free to provide an example of a game where you were like that. In general I think scum don't generally want to be seen at the forefront of a scum counter-wagon so I'm not sure that gives much in terms of townie brownie points.

[Montosh]

Votecount 1.Final

Maemuki

.............

(7):

Eevee

(622), Raya36 (634),

Snowblaze

(646), Ydrasse (658), Something_Smart (839),

Titus

(882),

Umlaut

(903)

Snowblaze

...........

(6):

RCEnigma (672), Montosh (785), Almost50 (814),

Fredrick A Campbell

(824), Menalque (852),

Maemuki

(878)

I'm not going to say it's impossible that scum would bus here but it's a very risky play and something we can revisit in lylo if necessary. For now I'm giving provisional town status to Raya, Ydrasse, S_S.

Menalque was willing to abandon the Snowblaze wagon for Titus with me, albeit temporarily, even though it made it more likely the Mohamuki lynch went through. That's not the safest of scum moves and I think I want to give Menalque some townpoints for that.

I tend to agree with the first point, especially regarding Raya and Ydrasse who are something more of early adopters to that wagon. I'm less sure about S_S but that may be more because I just haven't gotten any strong reads from them yet. Additionally, while I'm not dismissive of your Menalque point, the wagons were moving quickly enough that I'm not sure how much of a risk it would really be, plus Titus is town so... yeah I don't feel this too strongly.

I think it is also likely at least 1 scum was on the Mae wagon. What do you guys think if this? I doubt all 3 scum were on the counter and I feel like at least 1 would be distancing by being on the wagon. If so that makes Ydrasse and S-S candidates fmpov.

In general I would assume this. It's usually the case. As others have pointed out the setup makes it more risky. It's less likely but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it, even today.

[Montosh]

gut is saying menalque is town but brain is saying we'd be stupid not to throw him overboard
~Eve

I feel like if this slot turns out to be town, then it's going to be a huge lynchbait target come lylo (if we get there). Given all the interactions around them if may be helpful to resolve that slot sooner rather than later.

[Raya36]

Raya why do you think you're not a performer for the play? you still have front row seats don't get me wrong so treat this as a fun question

Sorry completely missed this.

My guess is one of you don't like me or you don't know what my avatar is from to get a cool performance picture

the performers = people confirmed as town lol

~Eve

Ah I got ya now. I'd say because a few people were scumreading me and I was playing quite low-effort this game. Maybe easy to frame as sheeping/bussing because of that? And I'm not as obvtown as I normally am when I actually try. I'm a solid mis-elim target right now unfortunately

[Umlaut]

So the thing is

We shouldn't just lynch someone today "because we're going to do it anyway" unless we actually believe they're the most likely scum, because we stand to win the game today if we guess correctly. And as long as

both

buddies weren't busing we have a decent chance of guessing correctly just by choosing the scummiest from the Snowblaze wagon.

I am a bit paranoid on further reflection that it would actually be a really cute scum strat to double-bus here because we have no other way of getting investigation results, so if town could be convinced that was "impossible" then scum have just won the game even with five clears as we lynch one Snowblaze voter after another. Seeing one of our clears is off the Mohab wagon does not make me feel any less paranoid in that regard, and I want to keep that in mind as at least a possibility, but I'm still willing to operate today on the more likely scenario that that's not what happened.

[Raya36]

I feel like Montosh is town

[Raya36]

So the thing is

We shouldn't just lynch someone today "because we're going to do it anyway" unless we actually believe they're the most likely scum, because we stand to win the game today if we guess correctly. And as long as

both

buddies weren't busing we have a decent chance of guessing correctly just by choosing the scummiest from the Snowblaze wagon.

I am a bit paranoid on further reflection that it would actually be a really cute scum strat to double-bus here because we have no other way of getting investigation results, so if town could be convinced that was "impossible" then scum have just won the game even with five clears as we lynch one Snowblaze voter after another. Seeing one of our clears is off the Mohab wagon does not make me feel any less paranoid in that regard, and I want to keep that in mind as at least a possibility, but I'm still willing to operate today on the more likely scenario that that's not what happened.

I'm happiest with whatever the town block votes as the most likely wagon to have scum the selecting the scumiest within that, that way there is the least scum influence as possible in that decision

[Almost50]

reading through almost50's iso:

i think that if all three scum were on snowblaze, rcenigma/almost50 would make sense? throughout his iso, almost50 makes it clear that he Really Wants To Vote The Mohabslot (659, 794, 811 though it's the mildest imo of these three instances) but never does. 821, too, wherein almost asks someone to consider scum!mohab but... never like, makes any meaningful efforts to push anything there?

that, and almost actively tried to dismantle the scumreads/points against rcenigma and commited to a hard tr on rc. 513, 514, 542, 545, 559, 566, 569, to name a few. a lot of his iso is spent in an effort of defending his tr who admittedly doesn't look too good now, having been a vote on someone who is now confirmed town.

just seems... performative, in the way they avoid voting mohab and instead vote snow every single time it's brought into question what he should think/do. so yeah.

VOTE: almost50

will read through the other non-confirmed people right now but i started here and i don't see a reason not to put my vote here atm.

Good case, and the bad conclusion doesn't take anything away from it. I probably would have voted me there too.

One question though: I said I only had TWO confident TRs. One of them (Fred) is now confirmed. Why would scum me opt to confirm Fred here? Like, I am very much self-aware (people who played against scum!me would confirm) and if I wanted to defend not one, but TWO of my scum!buddies (RCE & Mae) that blatantly then the very least I could have done is keep Fred in the suspects pool.

Plus; I do have a theoretical "best play plan" if I was scum, and I didn't talk about it on D1 because it would have given the real scum ideas. My theory is to actually bus one of them. Contrary to the belief that bus'ing is bad in this setup, if 2 scums bus'ed their 3rd and confirmed a majority of players on that wagon, people will naturally look into the other wagon voters and that guarantees at least 2 miss-eliminations (until they can escape) and then once the first of them escapes it almost guarantees the next elimination to be still from the counter wagoners because "would BOTH scum have voted their own p in this setup?". Unfortunately, I didn't roll scum so I couldn't have executed that plan, and I don't think anyone would have thought of it that way either, so -again- your case is a good one and I cannot refute it.

[Eevee]

@Menalque, fair enough! Disregard that point then.

~Eva

[Eevee]

<Raya>
<Ydrasse, S_S>
<RCE>
<Montosh, Menalque, A50>

is where I'm at, pending a read of the games Menalque linked. Also want to point out, it's good if we get the unconfirmed to provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us. Yes? Yes?

~Eva

[Fredrick A Campbell]

<Raya>
<Ydrasse, S_S>
<RCE>
<Montosh, Menalque, A50>

is where I'm at, pending a read of the games Menalque linked. Also want to point out, it's good if we get the unconfirmed to provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us. Yes? Yes?

~Eva

I am also believe that "it's good if we get the unconfirmed provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us."

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: I also believe that "it's good if we get the unconfirmed to provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us."