Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Almost50]

You never said it was Fred before he flipped...

Oh, you're right. My bad.

Nut, y'know.. I'm a monkey, and as thus I can do monkey business, and one trick I've learnt is to go back in time and insert posts that weren't there for you to read in the first time, so I went back in time and posted this:

So, it's snow, Fred and ydrasse to you? What if I told you Fred is my other confident TR??

P-edit: But what about his slip? (assuming no daytalk & asking about it)

And now I do have proof that I did out Fred as my second TR before he flipped.

[Menalque]

A50, if it’s not you, and it’s not me, and you think RCE is cleared for you — do you think it’s montosh or do you think scum would both be off the snow wagon? I don’t think scum can both be off the snow wagon when it was getting resisted so hard, right? Like I don’t think I’m that persuasive that I convinced 5 townies to nearly vote town while scum were busy actively trying to bus their partner?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

A50, if it’s not you, and it’s not me, and you think RCE is cleared for you — do you think it’s montosh or do you think scum would both be off the snow wagon? I don’t think scum can both be off the snow wagon when it was getting resisted so hard, right? Like I don’t think I’m that persuasive that I convinced 5 townies to nearly vote town while scum were busy actively trying to bus their partner?

Maybe we should consider that that was what happened.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: Maybe we should consider that that might be what happened.

[Almost50]

@Menalque: That's one tricky question you're asking. You are asking me to implicitly state a TR on you (when in fact I don't TR) in order for me to respond to it, and THEN I'm sure you'd somehow use the answer against me after omitting the hypothetical part of assuming you are town.

But let me refer you back to this:

TOWN
RCE
Raya
Montosh/S_S
Ydrasse
Menalque
SCUM

So, if we assume you are town then it's probably ydrasse + Montosh/S_S

[Menalque]

It just doesn’t seem likely to me tho fredrick. Like I’m good, but normally I’m not that good. I’d say getting a lot of support is rare if I don’t have some scum backing for what I’m doing and I normally miss one scum even when I am on form (normally the one who’s been backing my plays/pocketing me)

[Raya36]

But it's also not me and I think we agreed that that would make Ydrasse town too? And I also don't think it's S_S and Ydrasse together?

[Menalque]

@A50 so you’re saying it’s ydrasse + montosh/S_S, interesting

[Menalque]

/s

[Menalque]

Run me through why I’m scum to you?

[Something_Smart]

Ydrasse/me seems patently crazy.

[Raya36]

Ydrasse just doesnt make sense unless they're partners with me and they're not. And S_S makes no sense alone or with ydrasse to me. I really think we should be hunting within the snow wagon and I think the resistance to that from the unconfirmed is telling

[Menalque]

Okay raya, explain to me again why ydrasse only makes sense with you and not with anyone else in the unconfirmeds?

[Menalque]

I am still supportive of guillotining on the snow wagon, but I recently lost a game because scum bussed in (what I thought was) a bus disincentivised situation so I’d like to run through it to make sure I’m understanding the reasons

[Something_Smart]

A bus is possible, but a double bus seems legitimately insane.

[Menalque]

I would be so much more comfortable if it wasn’t primarily unconfirmeds on the mae wagon saying that

[Almost50]

and I think the resistance to that from the unconfirmed is telling

This is a very misguided take. For one thing; assuming both scum were on Snow means 3 of the "unconfirmed" were on mae (you being one of them), and they wouldn't be opposed to eliminating from the Snow wagon. and if there's Scum between them

they still wouldn't be opposed to it

.
For another thing: EVEN if both scum were on Snow, there were still two TOWNIES who were on Snow too (and are not confirmed), and they obviously still would rather not be the elimination target if they could help it, so it's not exactly "telling" either.

In fact; this is probably why I'm finding it hard to identify scum with confidence. It seems to me that almost everything going on now is a natural reaction to being pushed and is totally NAI because it would come from that player regardless of their true alignment. I thus suggest we go back to D1 and use it primarily over D2 for scum hunting.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

and I think the resistance to that from the unconfirmed is telling

This is a very misguided take. For one thing; assuming both scum were on Snow means 3 of the "unconfirmed" were on mae (you being one of them), and they wouldn't be opposed to eliminating from the Snow wagon. and if there's Scum between them

they still wouldn't be opposed to it

.
For another thing: EVEN if both scum were on Snow, there were still two TOWNIES who were on Snow too (and are not confirmed), and they obviously still would rather not be the elimination target if they could help it, so it's not exactly "telling" either.

In fact; this is probably why I'm finding it hard to identify scum with confidence. It seems to me that almost everything going on now is a natural reaction to being pushed and is totally NAI because it would come from that player regardless of their true alignment. I thus suggest we go back to D1 and use it primarily over D2 for scum hunting.

This is a very good suggestion.

I would be so much more comfortable if it wasn’t primarily unconfirmeds on the mae wagon saying that

This is a very good point.

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Montosh]

If I haven't done an A50 ISO by tomorrow night feel free to yell in my general direction.

I played myself.

[Montosh]

Alright, Homura/A50 ISO let's do this thing:

Homura:

62 Homura asking if my slot was post-restricted in an Open game. A look at their profile reveals they have previously played in 3 open games before this one, and thus likely understand the concept that you can actually see the setup. Considering we caught one scum playing dumb, I'm partial to this. She references a recently read (not played) game with that mechanic, but I'm sceptical of this.

109 Naked vote on Craig.

165 & 167 Homura pushes the idea that Craig/Menalque's joke scumclaim is somewhat AI despite the riskiness of bussing. Doesn't feel like two scum distancing. As of now wouldn't put Menalque and A50 on the same team.

[Ydrasse]

- why did you change your vote from mena to me?
- can you give like, idk. even just a general quick rundown of the other nonconfirmed players so we can see where your head is at a bit more clearly beyond the defensive?

Ok, let me restate my stance for one last time: I -personally- believe the elimination pool should be between you, me and Menalque. Now let's disregard my "TMI" of my slot's alignment for a minute. ANY

spectator

of the game would put me and Menalque as the only two options today. BUT, Titus says Menalque is Town and it's you & me (and regardless of your alignment you know that ism't the case, so -at least- we can agree on that). So, me/Menalque from my own PoV (as a spectator with no spoilers) or you (based on Titus VCA, which I ignored the last game and managed to lose her that game)

As for the rest: RCE is TOWN. Raya is 95% Town. Montosh & S_S have a few things going in their favour and other things that could point to them being scum. In other words, neither of them is outside their scumrange, but neither is actually scummy enough.

Out in another format:

TOWN
RCE
Raya
Montosh/S_S
Ydrasse
Menalque
SCUM

(and I've taken the liberty of removing my own name because this is MY read list, so I should factor in my own knowledge, but feel free to replace me with you from your PoV)

The thing is we only need ONE MORE SCUM ELIMINATION to win. So, I have 3 options:

1- Eliminate in you/Menalque and actually hit scum = Game Over! I don't need to look for the third scum
2- Eliminate in you/Menalque and they flip green = I'd still want to eliminate the other of you two
3- Eat rope myself = I am no longer in the game and I do not need to find scum anymore

Now assuming both you and Menalque are town I guess I eat rope next in the second scenario, so I won't have the time to find out who's scum because the game would be over.

I cannot reconsider my reads without another flip now. All we're going to do is run in circles, pointing fingers at each other, and end up where we started.

I will admit this though: Your approach towards me and being willing to engage me didn't strike me as something scum would do at this point, but then I looked back and remembered you are already voting me, so it felt a bit odd.

i think it would be dumb not to engage you honestly. my reads are not infalliable and i'd rather talk out stuff and see where your head is at regarding the gamestate if i am wrong. you're still my preferred elimination today regardless.

like, there's just this certain thing reading through your iso that gets to me and it's the attempts to reinforce that you are a Town Player, Too that stick out to me to the point that it feels unnatural. 1097 and 1104 namely stuck out to me upon reading them; i guess it's a tonal thing moreso than content but it feels like a concerted effort on your part to speak in a way that implicitly conveys your ~towniness.

and, that being said, i find your most recent post to contrast your reads? 1197 you convey fmpov a certain amount of confidence in your reads? there's something to be said for the strength of your townreads and you don't seem to waver in them/the progression you'd eliminate through despite saying in 1266 you were having trouble finding any scum confidently.

(also wrt 1266, while i appreciate saying 'yeah we should read through d1 to scumhunt' here it feels like an effort to deflect from your play d2 which is to me, at least, as i've said so many times now i feel self-defensive without much progression in the way of scumhunting save for agreeing with the TownBloc and throwing votes those ways/structuring your reads around it, if that makes sense lmao)

in general i feel that i haven't seen a lot of progression from you as a whole this game? at best fmpov i suppose the "i could vote mohab or i could vote snow" post in 794 suggests some amount of consideration, as the bottom of this post could, but in the end it feels like it mirrors the same opinions that you've put out the entirety of this game.

honestly at this point it's one of you or menalque fmpov. i feel that the latter's push on snow throughout a majority of d1 and defence of things like mohab's ~~townslips is just too... overt? like, i had a theory that he was just straight-up scumclaiming at the very beginning of the game but like, unless i am in fact the fool i feel that he's banking on everyone dismissing how upfront a lot of his play was (wouldn't lead snow wagon, wouldn't defend mohab, etc etc) it feels more likely that the sort of wishy-washy defence of voting either snow/mohab from you is scum. also, i tr the immediate defensiveness/awareness of how bad he looks because... yeah. i think it's dumb to hope no one is gonna bring it up honestly/not be thinking about it. lmao. in the position of a town!mena who led on snow for a lot of d1 i too would be like, "yeah uhhhh i messed up here" without having someone shimmy their way into pushing onto me.

my winning elimination chain as it is is you > mena > s_s (because while i thought raya might've been scum at some point on d1, i feel that scum simply wouldn't put all their eggs in one basket because of the very situation of town eliminating thru the snow wagon) > rce > montosh. i'm sorry if you're town but i cannot get past like... everything you've posted at this point and i feel like i am trapped in a hell where i try to go through things and end up at the same conclusions.

[Montosh]

A50:

393 Admittedly it has been a while since I played with A50 but this feels like a classic entrance for them.

445 He's a fan of Mohab/Mae, but says it's for general biases against their playstyle rather than anything concrete in this game. Kinda weird that they point that out and don't actually talk about play.

485 I'm probably paranoid but this whole asking the mod about a vote and being "blind" could also be filling up space without saying anything.

520 I think I pointed this out before as a good post from A50 but again I still think it is. He's explaining why he believes town would think that way and it makes sense even if it's not my personal playstyle. Also defends RCE pretty blatantly. +Town here. Continues his view on this in 529

545 Continues to defend RCE, pointing out (quite rightly) that scum!RCE has no motivation for putting that out in the open, especially if it was in fact possible. If it was not possible, it would NAI. Also makes a good point in 561. By that point in the game there'd already been a fair bit of scum suspicion placed on people because of acting dumb or setup questions in an Open. scum!RCE had no reason to think this kind of speculation would go over any differently

569 A50 postulates that our best bet statistically is to eliminate one scum in the first two days (check) and another scum D3/D4. Now given that belief, wouldn't it make sense to vote Menalque now? Even if it's not scum, it at least resolves a suspicious slot, and gives us more to work with going into the final phase.

659 More pointing out bias against Mohab, and says that is why they don't vote there.

794 More hedging on the snow vs Mohab vs Titus now vote question. Would seem +scum to me in general. Meta-wise I don't recall A50 ever acting like this but I admit it has been a while.

937 "Scum!Mae = Town!Umlaut" - A50

[Montosh]

More A50:

1020 I'm not saying that this suggestion of a play is impossible, but it's probably easier to say that scum could bus a 3rd and push suspicion to the other wagon than actually doing it. On the whole, I think we're better off looking at the snow wagon at least for today.

1039 Hey A50, I have responded, albeit late. This feels like a lot of worrying about how your motivations are perceived, which is something scum are inclined to do. Also the frustration presented here feels a little bit AtE so I'm definitely not a fan of this post.

1096 Self-meta = basically useless to us, as A50 himself admits. I guess it puts out his thought process, which I am always a fan of.

1099 RCE is "town all the way to China" according to A50. Now if they happened to live in China I'm not sure how townie this would make them but I'm going to assume this means A50 think they're a confident TR still

1104 Good vote. Follows a TR. Though the fact that they felt the need to point that out right before bothers me. I know that sounds weird because I've gone on earlier about how I hate naked votes, but I guess I've never been a fan of sheeping too much and frankly I think it's something scum do more often than town (though town do it often enough that it's hard to read that well)

1152 Like you say, I think it's best to flip the scummiest slot today, which is still Menalque imo. This makes sense from my perspective, but from your perspective you don't want to be eliminated either way. It's an anti-town attitude.

1197 I see nothing particularly objectionable here. We do need one more scum elimination, and given the history you've referenced I understand your desire to use Titus' VCA, but besides that VCA, is there any other reason you're voting Ydrasse here as of yet?

[Almost50]

like, there's just this certain thing reading through your iso that gets to me and it's the attempts to reinforce that you are a Town Player, Too that stick out to me to the point that it feels unnatural. 1097 and 1104 namely stuck out to me upon reading them; i guess it's a tonal thing moreso than content but it feels like a concerted effort on your part to speak in a way that implicitly conveys your ~towniness.

Next time I will try to implicitly convey my ~scumminess~ if it makes you feel better.

and, that being said, i find your most recent post to contrast your reads? 1197 you convey fmpov a certain amount of confidence in your reads? there's something to be said for the strength of your townreads and you don't seem to waver in them/the progression you'd eliminate through despite saying in 1266 you were having trouble finding any scum confidently.

Having 2-3 confident TOWN READS =/= having confidemt SCUM READS out of EVERYBODY ELSE.

(also wrt 1266, while i appreciate saying 'yeah we should read through d1 to scumhunt' here it feels like an effort to deflect from your play d2 which is to me, at least, as i've said so many times now i feel self-defensive without much progression in the way of scumhunting save for agreeing with the TownBloc and throwing votes those ways/structuring your reads around it, if that makes sense lmao)

OK, I will not defend myself anymore, and will oppose the confirmed Townies to please you. Point taken.

As a matter of fact, I am not AT ALL good at responding to posts designed to reach a predetermined conclusion, and yours certainly does look like one. You decided I was scum, and you're just trying to justify your push on me to the point I personally feel you're overdoing it.

@MontoshL I believe I was voting Menalque indeed until Titus decided ydrasse was a better option. Like I said MORE THAN ONCE today, the elimination pool for today is between me, Menalque and ydrasse. I don't think anyone expects me to be voting myself here, so whichever of them you guys (the confirmed Townies) decide to go I will simply join.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Almost50, why is Ydrasse included in your elimination (or, as I like to call it, execution) pool?