Open 88 - Polygamist Mafia (Game Over) before 650


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Post Post #50 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 4:05 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Vote Count


Zoolander (2) kloud1516, Jahudo
Farside22 (0)
The Pope's Tiara (1) armlx
LlamaFluff (0)
Goatrevolt (1) Caboose
Jahudo (1) Zoolander
OpposedForce (0)
armlx (1) Farside22
Caboose (2) OpposedForce, Goatrevolt
3fj (1) The Pope's Tiara
kloud1516 (2) Jebus, 3fj
Jebus (1) LlamaFluff

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

You guys happy with my VC's? Want me to put them in colour or anything?
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Post Post #51 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 4:18 am

Post by Zoolander »

I like how you are quick to point the finger. The only reason that I didn't reveal in the popcorn was because it wasn't suggested until after I posted (so I started it after armlx suggested it).

Though I would be very interested to hear what armlx says we can learn from it, as I don't really know what I'm looking for in any info that the order reveals.
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Post Post #52 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 4:43 am

Post by farside22 »

Zoolander wrote:I like how you are quick to point the finger. The only reason that I didn't reveal in the popcorn was because it wasn't suggested until after I posted (so I started it after armlx suggested it).

Though I would be very interested to hear what armlx says we can learn from it, as I don't really know what I'm looking for in any info that the order reveals.
I think with revealing and using pocorn we can start to ask people why they chose the people they did. Should it look suspcious. Why were some more eager then others to claim isn't something that is wrong either. Being eager to tell your lover could be because your scum who already had everything planned out for this phase.
Personal I like the claims because as I said it will be obvious that some people are protecting another because they are lovers. It will be other tells in the game that show scum.

Zoolander / The Pope’s Tiara
Jebus / 3fj
Armix / kloud1516
Goatrevolt / Llamafluff
OpposedForce / Jahudo
Caboose / Farside22

Why Jebus were you eager to claim and not do popcorn. Did you not see the bennifit of waiting to see who picked who and then ask why they picked that person?
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #53 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 6:01 am

Post by armlx »

Yeah, farside pretty much answered it. Asking why someone chose that person is the real issue at hand here, especially with the ability for each person to pick either Lover A1, A2, B1, B2, etc.
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Post Post #54 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:07 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

This
farside22 wrote:Why Jebus were you eager to claim and not do popcorn. Did you not see the bennifit of waiting to see who picked who and then ask why they picked that person?
Mixed with this
Jebus wrote:
Vote: Kloud


I don't really get how the random voting is supposed to work when everyone does it, but what the heck :P
make me comfortable with my Jebus vote for now
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Post Post #55 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:56 pm

Post by farside22 »

armlx wrote:Yeah, farside pretty much answered it. Asking why someone chose that person is the real issue at hand here, especially with the ability for each person to pick either Lover A1, A2, B1, B2, etc.
So why did you pick Goat to go next for claim?
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Post Post #56 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 2:12 pm

Post by kloud1516 »

Meh, sorry guys for not posting. I have been busy this week, so I will do a reread of the last three pages and post something of value a little later. I see that we have established who are bunk buddies are :wink: , but I think it would be best for me to look over the partner claim a little better just in case I missed something of value.
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Post Post #57 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 3:33 pm

Post by Jebus »

Here's another thought: Random vote? Minus my pair, or yours as you may see it, there are 10 people. You have a 2/5 chance of hitting. After one lynch, that goes to a 3/5 chance. Odds are, we hit and win, or get caught in a stalemate doing so.

Thoughts?
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Post Post #58 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 7:09 pm

Post by OpposedForce »

Jebus wrote:Here's another thought: Random vote? Minus my pair, or yours as you may see it, there are 10 people. You have a 2/5 chance of hitting. After one lynch, that goes to a 3/5 chance. Odds are, we hit and win, or get caught in a stalemate doing so.

Thoughts?
I don't see what your getting at. If we mislynch then we go to another day with two pairs dead with another pair being nightkilled in night 1 then we find ours in lylo and we either lynch scum or mislynch once again and lose the game.
The great blessing of mankind are within us and within our reach; but we shut our eyes, and like people in the dark, we fall foul upon the very thing we search for, without finding it.
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Post Post #59 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:33 pm

Post by Zoolander »

i think there is no night in this setup, so there will be no nightkilling.
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Post Post #60 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:52 pm

Post by armlx »

So why did you pick Goat to go next for claim?
He hadn't responded to the mass claim issue, and I wanted to force him to. I felt the reaction I got from him would be more indicative (if there was a significant one) then that from a less experienced player, who could oppose the claim on a non-scummy, more so ignorant basis.
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Post Post #61 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:54 pm

Post by OpposedForce »

Zoolander wrote:i think there is no night in this setup, so there will be no nightkilling.
Oops checked Xtoxm's post and saw it was nightless. My mistake scratch that from my post.
The great blessing of mankind are within us and within our reach; but we shut our eyes, and like people in the dark, we fall foul upon the very thing we search for, without finding it.
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Post Post #62 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 4:35 am

Post by kloud1516 »

Thoughts about the game thus far.

First things first:
Jahudo wrote:Interesting that both Jebus and Zoolander chose to reveal their partners early while the rest stuck with the popcorn and pass on to the next person. So since two of these sets were scum that had to decide how they wanted to partner up, was there anything to learn from how the reveals happened? I'm not sure there is, actually.
I would like to readdress the fact that Zoolander claimed his partner before the popcorn idea was suggested, so I don't think that this would could as a strike against him. I do, however, find that Jebus' response to the popcorn idea stands out.
Jebus wrote:No need to popcorn it, just claim. Takes less time :P

Me + 3fj (he's god btw)
I can't put my finger on why I find this to be suspicious. Maybe it is because Jebus flat out refused to follow the popcorn claim pattern, or maybe it was simply the context of the post. I feel that Jebus was attempting to rush us through the partner claiming stage, and I find that to be suspicious considering the information the town can acquire from this. There is no need to speed through, as we aren't close to deadline (at least I don't think we are), and less information given to the town is only going to help scum in this case. When asked about it:
farside22 wrote:Why Jebus were you eager to claim and not do popcorn. Did you not see the bennifit of waiting to see who picked who and then ask why they picked that person?
Jebus responds with this:
Jebus wrote:Here's another thought: Random vote? Minus my pair, or yours as you may see it, there are 10 people. You have a 2/5 chance of hitting. After one lynch, that goes to a 3/5 chance. Odds are, we hit and win, or get caught in a stalemate doing so.

Thoughts?
Which to me seems like blatant evasion/avoidance of farside's question by means of changing the topic. This doesn't sit well with me. I am not sure the random vote is such a good plan either, for if we mislynch on the random vote, we are already in a lylo situation (I think), so the numbers you, Jebus, post above would be incorrect. I am not exactly sure why you are suggesting random lynch on page three either.

If I had to vote now, it would be for Jebus, but I feel there is still a substantial amount of time to find other things that stand out. If I had a read on Jebus' partner, 3fj, other than his vote on me in the random voting stage, I might be more willing to place a vote on the pair.
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for now though.
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Post Post #63 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 5:56 am

Post by Jahudo »

armix wrote:Asking why someone chose that person is the real issue at hand here, especially with the ability for each person to pick either Lover A1, A2, B1, B2, etc.
Possibly we can look back and see if the suspicious person was trying to interact or avoid interaction with their other scum group through random voting or the claim order. It’s WIFOM now to think that the scum would/wouldn’t logically random vote the other scum pair or precede/follow them in the claim order, though.

Group 2 does look set apart from the rest but you can also argue that 1 and 6 distanced if you don't count 6 asking 1 to claim after the fact. 3,4, and 5 And if you want to look only at voting, then 3 and 4 kept apart while 4 and 5 kept apart.

1 = Zoolander / The Pope’s Tiara
2 = Jebus / 3fj
3 = Armix / kloud1516
4 = Goatrevolt / Llamafluff
5 = OpposedForce / Jahudo
6 = Caboose / Farside22

--------------
Random voting tally

1A votes 3A and 5B. 1B votes 2B
Group one interacts with 2,3, and 5. Meanwhile groups 3,4, and 5 interact with them and 1 asked them to claim (didn’t see the initial claim?). 6 does not interact depending on how you read it.

2A votes 3B and 2B votes 3B
Group two interacts with only 3. Meanwhile groups 1 and 4 interact with them. 2,5, and 6 do not interact.

3A votes 5A and 1B. 3B votes 1A
Group three interacts with 1,5 and asked 4 to claim. Meanwhile groups 1,2, and 6 interact with them. All interact.

4A votes 1A and 4B votes 2A
Group four interacts with 1,2 and asked 5 to claim. Meanwhile group 6 interacts with them and 3 asked them to claim. All interact.

5A votes 6A. 5B votes 1A and 2A
Group five interacts with 1,2, and 6 and asked 6 to claim. Meanwhile 1 and 3 interact with them and 4 asked them to claim. All interact.

6A votes 4A and 6B votes 3A
Group six interacts with 3,4 and asks 1 to claim (didn’t see the initial claim?). Meanwhile 5 interacts with them and asked them to claim. 2 does not interact (and 1 depending on how you read it).

-------------
Mass lover claim order

1A claims
2A claims
3A claims and asks 4A to claim
4A claims and asks 5A to claim
5A claims and asks 6A to claim
6A claims and asks 1B to claim (didn’t see the initial claim?)
-------------
No judgment yet, but maybe a reference point for later.
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Post Post #64 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:01 am

Post by farside22 »

I made this a bit clearer if you don't mind.

1 = Zoolander / The Pope’s Tiara
2 = Jebus / 3fj
3 = Armix / kloud1516
4 = Goatrevolt / Llamafluff
5 = OpposedForce / Jahudo
6 = Caboose / Farside22


Farside votes Armix
Caboose votes Zoo
ZooLand votes Kloud
Pope votes 3fi
Jahudo votes Jebus
OF votes Caboose
Kloud votes OF
Armlx votes pope
Jebus votes Kloud
3fj votes Kloud
LF votes Jebus
Goat votes Caboose


Kloud votes Zoo
Caboose votes Goat
Jahudo votes Zoo
Zoo votes Jahudo

So far I don't believe Zoo and Jahudo are scum group together. Yes I think scum will bus scum and all that but the interplay between them tells me no they are not scum group together. I notice at one point Zoo and Kloud had 3 votes.
OF I know you are in another Poly game didn't you know they were nighless?
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Post Post #65 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:04 am

Post by armlx »

This is where we need adel. One of those diagram thingies would be great here.
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Post Post #66 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:43 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

armlx wrote:This is where we need adel. One of those diagram thingies would be great here.
What we also need is some scumhunting
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Post Post #67 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:45 am

Post by armlx »

What we also need is some scumhunting
This is true, and the diagram is one method of doing so (that I usually don't care enough about to use).
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Post Post #68 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:50 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

armlx wrote:
What we also need is some scumhunting
This is true, and the diagram is one method of doing so (that I usually don't care enough about to use).
I just dont see what an overanalysis of the first three pages of votes will accomplish at this point that simple scumhunting cant, I dont think many if any have even cast something more then a random. Ususally voting history doesnt even come into play as concrete evidence untill late in the game.
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Post Post #69 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:51 am

Post by armlx »

I just dont see what an overanalysis of the first three pages of votes will accomplish at this point that simple scumhunting cant, I dont think many if any have even cast something more then a random. Ususally voting history doesnt even come into play as concrete evidence untill late in the game.
You seem to underestimate the non-randomness of random voting, especially in this set up.
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Post Post #70 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:54 am

Post by Goatrevolt »

Jebus wrote:Here's another thought: Random vote? Minus my pair, or yours as you may see it, there are 10 people. You have a 2/5 chance of hitting. After one lynch, that goes to a 3/5 chance. Odds are, we hit and win, or get caught in a stalemate doing so.

Thoughts?
Day 1, you have a 1/3 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

Day 2, you have a 2/5 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

Maybe my math is wrong (my statistics tends to just be me doing what I think sounds right, heh) but I believe that randomly lynching gives us a 60% chance of winning the game.

1/3 + (2/3 * 2/5) = 3/5 = 60%

1/3 chance we win day 1 and then we add to that the 2/3 chance we hit wrong day 1 times the 2/5 chance we hit correctly day 2, and that gives us a total of 1/3 + 4/15 = 9/15 = 60%.

Pros:
-60% base chance means town wins slightly more often than scum
-Randomly lynching avoids scum manipulation

Cons:
-By playing the game out normally, we can get clues on who the scum are and perhaps increase our chance of winning through solid reasoning.
-Against the spirit of the game. If I wanted to roll a dice, I'd just do it. I'm here to play mafia.

Overall, I'm leaning against doing this because I'd rather just play the game out normally and I think strong town reasoning can increase our chances of winning this game, but I do find it interesting that randomly lynching players could actually be quite pro-town.
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Post Post #71 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:56 am

Post by Goatrevolt »

I don't think analysis of random voting is useless. Conclusive towards finding scum? Definitely not at this stage, but I think it's valuable and could be a good way to kick off discussion so we can actually start some scumhunting.
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Post Post #72 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:59 am

Post by armlx »

Random lynching is poor. Always.
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Post Post #73 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:05 am

Post by Jebus »

Goatrevolt wrote: Day 1, you have a 1/3 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

Day 2, you have a 2/5 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.
It's actually 2/5 day 1, since you can take out your own group, since you know yourself and partner.

The chance is actually better than you say.

A random lynch to start off, at least, can help kick-start something, anyway.
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Post Post #74 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:05 am

Post by Jebus »

armlx wrote:Random lynching is poor. Always.
In a normal game I'd agree, but this setup seems to be calling for it.
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