Mini 659: The Neighborhood- Game over on Day 6

[bionicchop2]

Claiming miller unbidden verifies the existance of a cop and narrows the search for him. It also creates a good meta strategy for scum if it becomes the norm. So, like, shame on you or something.

Actually, mods have been known to put millers into games without cops.

I always thought millers were unknown to the actual miller (they think they are vanilla). Otherwise scum could do what iamausername did and claim miller on d1. Yes they will come up as guilty if investigated, but it wouldn't matter. Effectively, what iamausername did was make it pointless to investigate them - if there is a cop.

My vote is completely not random because I don't see how a miller claim could be a pro-town move. I can be convinced if there is some discussion thread about this play, but for now

# # vote iamausername

.

[bionicchop2]

Here's a Mafia Discussion thread about the subject. There's some good points on both sides of the argument.

Thank you. I will read up on it. Vote stays for now because I have no better home for it.

[bionicchop2]

Interesting points in that thread early on:

Mafia fakeclaiming miller doesn't do much, really only gives you a cop investigation without tying up the cop.

Not going to read the whole discussion because it seems there are enough on both sides for it to be WIFOM voting you for your claim.

# # unvote iamausername

If a miller dies, we have an easy lynch with you.

[bionicchop2]

## unvote iamausername

[bionicchop2]

yeah crywolf, your logic makes little to no sense. There would never be a situation where there would be an advantage to announcing you would be found guilty if investigated if that were not the case (well I guess unless there was a joker/fool/whatever who is intentionally trying to get lynched).

[bionicchop2]

I will say that the flavor makes a lot of sense, however.

There was no 'flavor' in his claim. Flavor is the role info added by the mod which gives characters 'flavor' related to the context / intro of the game.

3)

bionicchop - in post 19, you mention that investigating username is useless. Couldnt the investigation be used to prove sanity of a cop, if there is one?

Someone already stated this would probably be a waste. I have not seen anything but a Sane cop in a mini-normal game although I do not have a ton of experience. Someone would have to provide some links to a large sample size of such games before that line of reasoning is even considered IMO.

[bionicchop2]

3)

bionicchop - in post 19, you mention that investigating username is useless. Couldnt the investigation be used to prove sanity of a cop, if there is one?

Someone already stated this would probably be a waste. I have not seen anything but a Sane cop in a mini-normal game although I do not have a ton of experience. Someone would have to provide some links to a large sample size of such games before that line of reasoning is even considered IMO.

This is a very closeminded outlook. What mods have done in the past has little bearing on what our mod has done because every mod is different. A cops sanity should never be assumed.

If you had your own answer, why bother asking me the question? The cop can do whatever they want. My opinion is - waste of time. These games last through very few nights and testing sanity is a waste of an investigation. They may as well investigate themselves.

[bionicchop2]

@bionic: Elias made a good point about the flavor you missed, why didn’t you address it?

What was there to address? It was pretty obvious I simply missed the post user made that included his flavor. He pointed me to the post. I didn't feel I needed to make a new post about. I try to minimize thread clutter by only posting when I have a point I want to make or a question is directed to me.

[bionicchop2]

I didn't propose names at the time because I wanted to double-check my notes with more recent activity, and I didn't have the time to do so for that post.

3 pages in and you have that many notes? Seems a bit much this early, but whatever works for you.

[bionicchop2]

If a miller dies, we have an easy lynch with you.

Do people agree with this sentiment?

I wouldn't expect multiples of any role (other than mason) is a mini game, so I would be willing to lynch off of it.

[bionicchop2]

I find it odd that people agree with crywolf looking scummy, but then vote for Lowell.

##vote: Crywolf

[bionicchop2]

I find it odd that people agree with crywolf looking scummy, but then vote for Lowell.

##vote: Crywolf

Can I ask what I've done scummy in your opinion before I get a little ticked off at the vote?

Why would anybody get ticked off at any vote?

I have reasons for my vote. My next post in this game will include them.

[bionicchop2]

Emotions (ticked off) should play no part in mafia.

[bionicchop2]

Reasons why my vote is on crywolf (these items have you currently as my most scummy player. This does not mean you are scum, but you are my top suspect).

With you claiming, I can still see the cop invetigating you, just to make sure, and then outting himself to let everyone know that you

did

came up guilty.

suggestion for cop to out themself (role fishing)

I agree with Lowell, but not enough to put a third vote on your head yet.

This post satisfies me, and now makes me wanna think about Lowell.

Here you went from understanding Lowell's post which accuses Tony to then being suspicious of Lowell because of Tony's response. I am not sure what it means, but the flip to the complete opposite side of the argument when neither have really said enough IMO to be convincing the other is scum.

I'll have a nice post tomorrow when I'm not feeling so bad with allergies.

Promise to make an analysis with a failure to follow up (that was posted Friday. It is now monday and you are obviously posting in the thread). This has been used by scum to appear more active / helpful than they are.

[bionicchop2]

1)

Bionicchop - your answer (67) to ythills question (66) is somewhat disappointing. I think he was looking more for something like what you thought of the flavor, which you didnt take any sort of stance on. And yeah, if he wasnt asking that, well I am.

I find nothing in the flavor claim that would lead me to believe it is not legit. The problem with flavor is that scum are usually given flavor too (correct me if I am wrong, but that was the case in the only other game I have played with flavor added).

4)

bionicchop - I made a turnaround on the lowell montana interaction similar to crywolfs. was that scummy as well? If not, why not? If so, why havent you mentioned it? Crywolf is scummy for poorly veiled fishing, but besides that your case is pretty weak.

I don't feel a need to point out every minute post / action I feel is scummy. Just is not my style (adapted from when I started). I do find a quick change in stance with those 2 in particular to be slightly scummy. My reason being that neither has made a solid case against the other - at least not enough to be so overwhelmingly convincing you forget prior suspicion of them and switch to the person they are suspicious of.

I never said crywolf was the scummiest person I ever met or implied I had a rock solid case against her. We are 6 pages into the game. I clearly said she was the person I currently find scummiest. There is a general 'tone' to her posts that also sets me off a little. That is not something I would use to convince others on a lynch since it is hard to describe and even harder to convince people of.

[bionicchop2]

@elias- regardless of their primary goal, no scumgroup is going to want a miller around at endgame. So he'd have to be AWFULLY certain there are no other scumgroups than his to make such a claim on page 1.

A miller helps scum since they are automatically suspect (even if claimed d1).

[bionicchop2]

I guess I am hesitant to jump on the Lowell wagon because I have played a game with him before and his actions were similar. That does not mean he can't be mafia, but I see nothing incriminating enough for my vote. I do think he needs to address what has been asked.

My vote is staying on cry though (for now). She admitted her vote was OMGUS and says she is comfortable with it.

[bionicchop2]

Actually, certainty anybody is town is one of the bigger scum tells in my book (it is a short book, but a book none the less!). I may be coming around to the idea of Lowell scum.

[bionicchop2]

I am of the opinion that meta can't be used to defend poor behavior.

The idea is they eventually get broken out of the habit.

The poor behavior is not being defended, simply the poor behavior is not a scum tell. Being a bad townie is never a scum tell.

[bionicchop2]

I think he is neutral with a disruptive playstyle, which comes off as scummy.

neutral as in you have no read on him, or neutral as in 3rd party alignment? Your comment makes no sense to me. Is somebody who is 'neutral' to you right now the scummiest person you can find? Does that mean everybody else is coming across as clear town to you?

[bionicchop2]

neutral as in you have no read on him, or neutral as in 3rd party alignment?

When I read Darox's response I thought, if I was scum I would ask Darox what he meant by neutral. Don't know that this says anything about bionic's alignment, but the thought came up so I figured I'd mention it..

What would you ask if you were town and didn't know what they meant? There is no neutral in mafia, so I feel this question should have been asked and should definitely be answered.

[bionicchop2]

Hey all, I'm still here. Post coming tonight.

If you don't back this one up, it is strike 2.

[bionicchop2]

What would you ask if you were town and didn't know what they meant?

I thought it was obvious, from the context, that he meant MotR. I also thought asking which he meant would be a good way for scum to appear helpful. I don't think this means you are mafia (it's too assumptive to be a reliable tell), but I mentioned it because it seemed relevant.

Could you tell me what MotR means?

[bionicchop2]

What would you ask if you were town and didn't know what they meant?

I thought it was obvious, from the context, that he meant MotR. I also thought asking which he meant would be a good way for scum to appear helpful. I don't think this means you are mafia (it's too assumptive to be a reliable tell), but I mentioned it because it seemed relevant.

Could you tell me what MotR means?

OK, now that I know this means 'middle of the road', I can respond. I assumed that is what darox meant (it was darox who said this, right?) and was why I asked my question. I can't see why anybody would vote for somebody they were putting right in the middle.

[bionicchop2]

If you don't back this one up, it is strike 2.

3 strikes and you vote? Or are these hollow?

Actually my vote has been on crywolf and the first time she promised an in-depth post without providing one is in my initial argument.

[bionicchop2]

Just posting real quick because I'm supposed to be writing a paper for my english class...or at least starting it anyways.

crywolf

unvotes Lowell in #195, placing him at four votes, admitting that her vote had no real basis besides OMGUS, and after apparently doing some meta-reading on Lowell. This still doesn't excuse her putting it there in the first place, but the attention had moved away from her at this point, and I think she could easily have maintained the vote without taking more heat than she already had. Interesting.

But if I decide to go vote Lowell again, inevitibly hammering him, and for some reason it ends up being a mislynch, all the heat gets placed right back on me. So yeah, I'm a hammerphobe as of right now. I want to do it, I just don't want to be blamed for the hammering of a townie, because we all should know, Lowell's play style means nothing to his allignment.

But, sheesh... I just don't like how he's

blatently

avoided many of the questions posed to him, and/or ignoring them completely.


Oh what the hell...

##Vote: Lowell

What comes of it comes.

At my count that is only 6 any way.

That was one heck of an odd post there wolf. Let me see if I have this all straight:

- you are in a hurry because you have a paper to write
- you are scared to hammer because we will call you scum if he comes up town
- despite being in a rush and fearing he will show up town making you look scummy, you go ahead and convince yourself to hammer (what you thought was hammering) in the span of 2 sentences.

That has my head spinning. Here are the faults I see:

- You shouldn't care what you will look like tomorrow. Either you think Lowell is scum or you don't. According to you in post 195, you had no basis for voting Lowell (hence no reason to truly believe he is scum)

##unvote

There’s nothing I can do about his erratic play style, and my vote had no other basis other than it was an OMGUS vote.

- You are already setting up a defense for an action you think looks scummy

- You have more important things to do, but you felt the need to come here and hammer (even though it isn't) someone. It looks like new scum seeing a nice little townie waiting to be lynched and several players saying they are ok with somebody hammering them.

- I have a thing against self-debating posts where somebody appears to act in opposition to what their words are saying.

[bionicchop2]

Iamausernames push on Darox reads as barely veiled distraction to me. Like hardcore detraction from Lowell wagon. Tommy a little bit too maybe. Just sayin'. I dont think the Darox case is strong enough for me to vote at deadline, though there are some points to consider tomorrow.

The deadline is a week away, so why are you pushing off looking at Darox until day 2? If you state Iamuser is using Darox to distract from the Lowell wagon you would need to assume Iamuser knows he alignment of Lowell, but you list Iamuser as neutral with quality posts in the latter part of your post. 'Barely veiled distraction' does not translate to quality posts, so I think you are slightly contradicting yourself and need to clarify your opinion on iamusername.

Oman so far has seemed fairly strong in his posts and reads protown to me. The policy lynch on lowell is a dumb suggestion, but lynching lowell as a last resort today due to his alignment info potential is a fairly good suggestion. Assuming no better lynch candidate comes up prior to deadline.

Oman is always strong / assertive in his posts FYI. In the only other game I played with him, he was a mafia spy and pegged me as cop. After my NK, he took control of the game (claiming a tracking role) and lead mafia to victory. Oman is a solid player and writing him off as protown after so few posts is a huge mistake IMO. You will set yourself up to be lead around whatever direction he wants if he is scum.

Crywolf doesnt read as scum to me, but as noob town who is trying a bit to please town. I did this in my first town game and dont find it that scummy.

Something to look at later in the game but not a good day 1 lynch. [/quote]

Obviously I disagree since my vote is on crywolf and has been most of the day. This is not a newbie game, so I don't see any player as a newbie. If I get chance, I will try to meta her.

At deadline I will most likely vote lowell, as he provides the most information for us about other peoples alignments. For instance, if lowell is scum, his 100% belief of Iamausernames claim indicates to me that user is scum. There are some other decent connections I've drawn as well, which I will save til tomorrow.

I don't like this ending to your post. I do agree Lowell's lynch will provide information, but in the end, any lynch does that as long as there was a full day of discussion.

- assumption that iamuser is scum if Lowell is scum is off. Scum buddy up to townies. Scum would know iamuser is telling the truth about being miller - if in fact he is.

- I always view setting up future lynches as scummy.
- you are saving your 'other decent connections' until tomorrow. This is the 2nd time in this post you have made the assumption you live to see the next day. If you have thoughts / analysis / conclusions you have made, the best time to post them is always now. If you have actually figured some stuff out, waiting only runs the risk of you dying without that information coming out.

[bionicchop2]

Newbies get into minis all the time. Newbie games arent required, and I think this is her first game ever.

My point is more if someone is going to jump in and skip over newbie games, then I am not going to give any kind of newbie passes. I don't fault anybody who does, but I think it is an easy card to play for a new player who wants to get away with pushing scummy agendas.

The way I see it (just limiting to Lowell vs. crywolf for argument sake):

crywolf - acting scummy (no posts have sturck me as protown) without precedent for doing such as town

Lowell - acting scummy with some precedent of doing such as town.

[bionicchop2]

Claim or die is not the same as 'He hasn't claimed yet, kill him.'

?????????

[bionicchop2]

I am starting to think Lowell is the right play today. Even if we lynch somebody else, I feel as though the game will be stuck in Lowell mode and we will end up right back where we are tomorrow. The game has potential to focus on Lowell for way too long. Also, if he is alive when night comes, a cop (if we have one) would likely investigate him.

The other cases (even parts of my case on crywolf) deal a lot with how they have voted for Lowell. With 3 days until deadline, I think the proper move is to lynch Lowell, find out his alignment and analyze from there. I am going to

FoS fhqwhgads

for his unvote as deadline approaches.

vote Lowell

[bionicchop2]

##vote: Lowell

EBWOP

[bionicchop2]

Also, if he is alive when night comes, a cop (if we have one) would likely investigate him.

Why is this a bad thing?

Even with an innocent report, I don't think Lowell would be completely cleared ever. When you have someone who has been discussed all day and they are likely to be investigated, the results can't always be trusted. There are mafia roles which can alter investigation results and there is always a GF possibility. If it is too obvious who the most likely investigation is, there is more possibility of tampering.

[bionicchop2]

##unvote: Crywolf ; ##vote: Lowell

EBWOP

EBWOP

let's try this way.

/brain fizzle

[bionicchop2]

How many people are going to believe any claim at this point?

[bionicchop2]

##unvote Lowell

That lengthy post reminded me of the last game we were in together (mini 614 - maybe the only game we were in together), so I decided to check games which you came up as scum. In Pantsville (I just skimmed), you were serial killer and never went into the extent you just did. Those come across as notes you have been compiling throughout the game and not just thrown together right now.

[bionicchop2]

Let's start the day fresh with a

vote crywolf

. I wouldn't be opposed to discussing Darox a little more. My gut tells me Darox would not kill his biggest accuser, but I don't know Darox well enough.

[bionicchop2]

Let's keep in mind there is bound to be at least 1 scum who didn't vote for Lowell.

[bionicchop2]

You know what,

##unvote crywolf

(looks like I forgot proper format anyway). This isn't the best place to start (but may be connected to the person who I think is). My previous post lead me to take a peak at the most suspicion person who didn't vote Lowell.

##unvote

this wagon went way to fast for my liking, and lowell hasnt even got around to answering my initial questions. Lets just slow it down a bit, and look more carefully at everyone voting lowell.

When the wagon looked like it was headed to a sure Lowell lynch, Elias was the first to hop off. He never got back on.

Thoughts: Sorry lowell, I really thought you were scum. Reread in progress.

This statement to start the day is odd. Many people thought Lowell was scum and voted such. There is no need to apologize. An apology comes off as scummy to me - as if you felt the need to justify your opinions of hte previous day when there was no pressure to do such. The biggest reason this looks odd is that you ended the day without voting for anybody.


I also find it suspicious you had 1 random vote and 1 vote for Lowell, with no other votes during the day. I did not get the impression you were doing any genuine scum hunting and you never really made any substantial posts about anybody. The most you did was list 3 players as 'slightly scummy'.

I could be wrong here, but I think this is an avenue worth pursuing to start the day. I don't want to tunnel in on crywolf and lose sight of the rest of the game.

##vote elias

[bionicchop2]

In 281 I give my opinion on every player. Since then i got out of the flow of the game a little, as evidenced by my mental lapse about my lowell vote.

About this - if you could link me to a game where you have done a similar list of where you ranked players as pro-town, neutral and slightly scummy and you were town, I would appreciate it. So far I have been unable to find one. The only game I found where you ranked players in a list form, you turned out to be scum.

[bionicchop2]

It is a minor meta issue about the extensiveness and style of your game analysis.

Much like why I unvoted Lowell - the game breakdown he did matched the format and depth of when I played with him as town. In games where he was scum, that breakdown was missing. I find that both scum and town players will do player by player rankings of sort or they will do a full breakdown of each player. Scum tend to do lists that are more fluff. That doesn't mean too much unless you have seen a player do more substantial breakdowns. As town, the games I have read of yours had you doing at least a few sentences on each player as opposed to just throwing a list together without any reasoning stated.

When I search for posts by a player, I skip and skim every 5th page to find new games I had not skimmed. There is a chance I missed some of your recent games as town, which is why I am asking you for some links.

[bionicchop2]

Well the format isn't exactly the same and my backreading on you is in progress, so I am not putting too much weight into what I find yet.

Newbie 499 was the one I found where you actually ranked players, but even then you provided more of a breakdown of each player before making the list. On my first skim only the list caught my eye and I made note of it.

I am still searching to see if I find any where you did a list without providing analysis and reasoning.

[bionicchop2]

That's adequate enough for me. I will dismiss that meta.

##unvote

[bionicchop2]

Bionic's easy roll-over at the end also seems odd to me. I'd almost be as bold to say that whole exchange felt like a very staged bussing scenario.

FOS

on both of you.

I feel like you didn't follow any of the links. Not agreeing with the meta is fine. The reality is he was able to provide links which were closer to how he has played this game than the links I was able to find. Pretty simple actually. I don't cling to a meta case if substantial evidence is provided where I could be wrong.

[bionicchop2]

Can I quickly state that I doubt Ythill to be scum right now.

Yes you can state that (in fact, you just did!). Asking the rest of us to agree is a different matter.

[bionicchop2]

Seeing how Ythill was the one who brought up the nk discussion, it would take some convincing to get me seeing him as sure town.

Something tells me I should agree with you here though.

[bionicchop2]

##Vote: TonyMontana

This vote has reasons.

I will reserve judgment until those reasons are given.

[bionicchop2]

Two thumbs up (and not just because you have me in the townie list). Thorough analysis with conclusions formed from analysis and no obvious logical flaws. I think wolf needs to be looked at closely. I wouldn't mind others doing more questioning of her since I feel like I put some decent pressure on her and don't want to tunnel in, so I will be trying to look at others a little more today.

[bionicchop2]

@bionic: Yeah, I brought up NK discussion, so what? I found it odd. I also think it's nice that so many people weighed in on the topic. Lots of ammo for Rash's quote miners.

forgot to answer this. It seems like NK discussions are started slightly more by scum, but not enough to be a huge tell (maybe 60/40). I bring it up occasionally as town, but haven't found that others really find any value in discussing it. I think there is value in how people respond - more than the actual reason for the nk. Scum bring it up for confusion and some town players will bring it up because they can sometimes get information from it.

[bionicchop2]

I'll also want to hear more people's reactions to the lynch and NK actions before disclosing more.

When you made this comment, I thought you might actually be providing us with some information. You haven't done anything of the sort.

[bionicchop2]

When you made this comment, I thought you might actually be providing us with some information. You haven't done anything of the sort.

Didn't have time to reread day 1 yet. Oh, and claiming I'll be providing more information? I have seen the same things you have seen, why would I have MORE information? Best I can do, is a fresh perspective.

You kind of soft claimed having information which would have come from the night phase and were just waiting for some more people to post before revealing. I guess I misread that one. It seemed like you had an investigation with a guilty result. The use of the word 'disclosing' was very misleading. The nature of the word disclosing is more along the lines of unveiling previously unknown information.

If you were trying to be subtle about having an investigation, I was trying to be subtle about letting you know I was waiting for the results before voting. I can see that is not the case now - if it is, you have kind of blown it by directly asking me why I expected you to have MORE information.

[bionicchop2]

There seems to be no heat on anybody right now and that can never be a good thing.

vote TonyMontana

and let's get some conversation going.

[bionicchop2]

There seems to be no heat on anybody right now and that can never be a good thing.

vote TonyMontana and let's get some conversation going.

Smoothly played. ¬¬

I'm still waiting for darox to explain why he pretends to have some kind info on me that we others don't.

Ythill is not me and I am not Ythill.

That last quote is mine.

[bionicchop2]

##vote TonyMontana

EBWOP.

[bionicchop2]

Lowells large post

The fact that it failed to describe any of his actions or motives, or claim despite people calling for it, prompted me to hammer and end the day before the deadline struck.

Did you check the mini 614 game I referenced when I unvoted?

[bionicchop2]

Vote Count

(6 to lynch)

TonyMontanav(2):

Darox, Oman

crywolf:

Ythill

Not voting (7):

Elias, Rashiminos, TonyMontana, crywolf, bionic, Tommy, fhqwhgads

Yeah! I fixed my vote (for the tenth time this game!).

just in case

##vote TonyMontana

[bionicchop2]

Why would you guys pressure vote someone who's already answering questions? And then not ask any of your own?

Do you really have that much faith in Darox?

- partly seeing who would follow me
- partly waiting for Darox to outline a case. Something tells me Darox knows what they are talking about here.

The rest is just laziness as my other 3 games had an explosion of activity.

[bionicchop2]

Tommy - why did you feel the need to answer for Tony there?

[bionicchop2]

Can somebody remind me how Crywolf has managed to slip completely out of the picture here?

[bionicchop2]

Can somebody remind me how Crywolf has managed to slip completely out of the picture here?

Sure, Darox soft-claimed

I haven't soft claimed anything.

meh.

##unvote TonyMontana

I kind of thought you were making a soft-claim myself which is why I couldn't provide any solid reasons for following you. Since you are saying you weren't, then I see no reason to vote Tony based on arguments given throughout the game.

[bionicchop2]

I'm voting for Tony because he is scum. I thought that was obvious.
I also thought it was obvious that I hadn't softclaimed. Because, you know, I never once hinted at something like 'I'm going to get you tonight' or 'I won't let you die' or 'I have proof of guilt' or anything along those lines.
What you interpret from my actions does not equal a softclaim from myself.

This vote has reasons.

I am so ashamed by being confused and thinking you might have more information than others may have.

Your sarcasm and condescending tone are certainly not helpful towards any goals a town player might have.

[bionicchop2]

Can somebody remind me how Crywolf has managed to slip completely out of the picture here?

Sure, Darox soft-claimed

I haven't soft claimed anything.

meh.

##unvote TonyMontana

I kind of thought you were making a soft-claim myself which is why I couldn't provide any solid reasons for following you. Since you are saying you weren't, then I see no reason to vote Tony based on arguments given throughout the game.

NOTE: IF YOU THINK SOMEONE IS SOFT CLAIMING, DON'T POINT IT OUT. All it does is point the mafia to them. The point of soft claiming is to keep it SECRET AND SUBTLE.

I didn't point it out until someone else did and he denied it. At that point I could state my real reason for my vote which I had to defend with weak reasoning when I was actually asked about it.

[bionicchop2]

@Darox - all of your reasons for your vote seem to have occurred after your vote. Please outline the reasons which came before your vote and made him obvious scum (so obvious everybody else missed how obvious it was).

[bionicchop2]

cry - you are making a huge assumption if you think one player defending another means both are scum.

[bionicchop2]

cry - you are making a huge assumption if you think one player defending another means both are scum.

I can understand defending a person once or twice if you disagree with the attacker, but constant like its been? Like I said, I'd rather lynch Tommy vs. Tony

You also need to realize scum will defend town in order to buddy up with them and force a mislynch on the 2nd player. You are correct in saying Tommy would be the lynch over Tony if this situation convinces you at least 1 of them are scum.

I guess my point is that Tommy defending Tony would not incriminate Tony if Tommy turned out to be scum.

[bionicchop2]

9 of what?
I was very prominent in yesterdays discussion, as far as being involved in lowells actions. So just because Tommy would mention my name when he was criticizing lowells plays, doesn't mean he was "defending" me, or standing up for me everytime.
It seems like you're trying to give this more credibility than it deserves, which can be exemplified by your mentioning #150, but noticeably not quoting, because it's an example of Tommy mentioning my name with

no

implications of a defense for me.

Unfortunately, now you are defending him. The accusation that Tommy is defending you really doesn't require a response from you.

[bionicchop2]

3-4 people have completely disappeared from the game. Bound to cause some lulls in the action.

[bionicchop2]

A wise man once said - if there is nothing happening, vote!. Well maybe a wise man never said that, but one probably should.

##unvote;##vote Darox

mostly for voting and then all the reasons given for the vote have occurred after the vote.

[bionicchop2]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

While it is an in-depth PbPA against someone I think has acted scummy (and my votes have reflected this feeling) recent scum hunting errors by myself lead me to believe crywolf may actually be town. I am finding most actions I have previously deemed scummy are actually just mistakes made by town players scrambling to lynch scum. If she were an experienced player, I might suspect a gambit of being overtly scummy. I think in reality, newbie scum would be much more cautious than she has been and not thrown a vote around as much as she has.

I am going to try and do a personal vote analysis some time this weekend and see if it gets me anywhere since my previous thoughts on scum hunting are slowly proving to be completely false on most counts as I complete games.

[bionicchop2]

Just checking in. I see that nobody has commented on my PbPA... unless Oman's drunk double post counts.

While it is an in-depth PbPA against someone I think has acted scummy (and my votes have reflected this feeling) recent scum hunting errors by myself lead me to believe crywolf may actually be town. I am finding most actions I have previously deemed scummy are actually just mistakes made by town players scrambling to lynch scum. If she were an experienced player, I might suspect a gambit of being overtly scummy. I think in reality, newbie scum would be much more cautious than she has been and not thrown a vote around as much as she has..

Wait, so because you've been wrong before you're doubting yourself?

No, I am rethinking what I consider scum tells. Consistently having town players as the scummiest means I am viewing town 'mistakes' as scum tells and the thought process needs to be revised. If I theorize only scum would do an action and then town players do that action several games in a row, I obviously can't use it to hunt scum anymore.

[bionicchop2]

OK. Here is my updated scum analysis based on voting:

These are broken into 3 tiers. Scummiest vote patterns, slightly confusing vote patterns which I need to back check more games for examples of. Their similarities make me think this is mostly a town group. Ironically the last group of players who are least likely to be scum (which would have included iamusername and Lowell if they were still alive) only has the person my vote was on.

##unvote Darox

===============
Elias
Crywolf
Tommy
Oman
===============
TonyMontana
Rashiminos
Yhtill
fhqwhgads
===============
Darox
===============

To break down the first group a little:

Elias - has been completely lurking and posting only the minimal amount to not get replaced. Active elsewhere on the site. Was last active when I posted a case against him. My meta read was unreliable, but again I find him exhibiting traits of scum.

Crywolf - voting pattern actually supports the in game actions for once. It is very likely we have a case of new scum here.

Tommy - not much to add here. This fits my suspicion he may be scum defending a townie.

Oman - always a tough read. Voting and posting of Oman would put him in this group. Replacing in does throw analysis off a little or I would probably have him higher.

Note: I am not going into too much detail on my reasoning, but anybody interested enough can look at the voting on their own to understand where my suspicion comes from. The reality is that if this proves to be fairly accurate in narrowing down suspects, it will quickly lose relevance as people adapt.

Final thoughts: My gut is to go with a vote on crywolf. The catch here is I remembered elias defending crywolf as a newbie. Scum defending town or scum defending scum? Both players I feel are worthy of my vote. If both are scum, I think elias is more dangerous to town and should be eliminated sooner.

##vote elias

[bionicchop2]

Vote Count

(6 to lynch)

Darox (2):

TonyMontana, fhqwhgads

TonyMontana (2):

Darox, Oman

Tommy:

crywolf

Ythill:

Rashiminos

crywolf:

Ythill

Elias:

bionic

Not voting (2):

Elias, Tommy

I think we should get some focus and condense some votes.

[bionicchop2]

That's an odd request from someone who just moved his vote from a frontrunner to an unknown. Two of your four suspects are being voted by others, why not focus on one of them?

If needed I will move my vote. I really wasn't aware of the current vote when I made my vote.

[bionicchop2]

##unvote elias;vote crywolf

No point leaving my vote on a player who is going to be replaced.

Reasons on crywolf I have outlined yeserday and today, so not going to rehash what I have already said. More than the scummy posting, her voting is very suspicious. She was quick to follow what everybody was saying for cases yesterday, but she only voted Lowell - repeatedly. Unvoted and revoted him several times. I see this as new scum not trying to get into confrontations with too many people, so keeping her vote in one place. She has managed to agree with most people. The current vote on Tommy may be a bus vote.

[bionicchop2]

I would say the case against crywolf is far greater than any other current case right now and I would like for any player who is not voting wolf to explain their current vote and why they feel that player is more likely to be scum.

I see everything wolf has done as an attempt to blend in. To me the most damning evidence is the persistent re-voting of Lowell over the course of day 1 while agreeing with several arguments against other people. Her vote was always ready to go back to Lowell, but pulled off any time it seemed momentum might shift to another person.

Her post content contains many items which are scummy (although there are many which can be townie mistakes appearing scummy). There are repeated instances of evaluations to come followed by reasons for delaying. Her game seems geared around not gaining much attention. The recent dismissal of a full PbPA against her and the decision it did not need ANY form of response is shocking. She had a case ready against Tommy, but didn't want to post it until after I commented on his actions? Does she have a case ready for every player that she can use if anybody else suspects them? That just seems odd.

[bionicchop2]

oooh - a replacement!

Welcome.

[bionicchop2]

For that reason, I’m going to ##Vote:Darox. I can see the case for crywolf, especially with how she fails to defend herself, but the case for Darox is much better and I’d like to see him hanged.

I don't see why this lynch option is being reconsidered 48 hours away from deadline (a deadline which would result in a no lynch if a true majority is not reached).

6 to lynch and 10 players alive (side note - lynching with even numbers sucks so hard). Darox isn't going to vote for himself, leaving 9 players left. If Darox was scum, that would leave 7 town players left to vote for Darox. With your vote, then 5 out of 6 town players would need to vote Darox in the next 48 hours (players who have obviously decided to vote elsewhere or not at all).

Now if Darox is town, the lynch could happen pretty easily since 3 scum are available to vote. This would be especially convenient if Crywolf is scum herself.

Why would you choose to not put crywolf at L-1 and force a claim here if you can see the case against her? This would give the maximum time for a claim to be considered by everybody and a lynch decision to be made.

The entire concept reeks of trying to derail the Crywolf wagon for a quick wagon on Darox (but still covering yourself by agreeing with the case on Crywolf). Maybe this hunch stems from having Elias as one of my top suspects and the previous location for my vote.

[bionicchop2]

Actually, considering our circumstances, I am requesting Crywolf claim in her next post as opposed to waiting for L-1. I would like a full claim with flavor to give us time to analyze.

[bionicchop2]

Why would you choose to not put crywolf at L-1 and force a claim here if you can see the case against her?

I thought she was under enough pressure already and I think Darox is scummier.

The entire concept reeks of trying to derail the Crywolf wagon for a quick wagon on Darox (but still covering yourself by agreeing with the case on Crywolf).

Not at all. I simply want my vote on my top suspect. I happen to know I'll be around to change it if a no-lynch looks possible.

Point 2 is fine (although I disagree with the approach). P1, I don't think there can ever be 'enough pressure' if someone is suspected scum and you want a claim out of them. Cry has already displayed a myriad of excuses (my be legit) which have delayed promised posts. I feel the maximum pressure to claim needs to be applied to her or we run the risk of not getting one.

[bionicchop2]

Actually, considering our circumstances, I am requesting Crywolf claim in her next post as opposed to waiting for L-1. I would like a full claim with flavor to give us time to analyze.

I'm the doc? Yeah, so I've made some poor choices in my wording sometimes but truthfully i've done my damnedest to find the scum. Lynch me or whatever.

A claim with a question mark? Please include the flavor as was asked for in the original request. Name of character and brief, loose paraphrase of the description without quoting the mod.

[bionicchop2]

Also - name who you protected night 1 and why (after flavor claim which is more important).

[bionicchop2]

I'm the local doctor of the town and I'm known for once being a big shot doc in a fancy hospital but would rather work in the small neighborhood.

I would kind of expect a doctor in this setup to be someone who has been there for a long time and people know him/her well (unless this was Arachnophobia - even then there was still the old time doctor who had been there forever).

Mr. Smith knows everyone by name, the ages of their kids, how folks lawn or home improvements are coming. He walks his dog down his block, up Main Street, around the elementary school, across the baseball field and through the little patch of woods behind his lot.

You almost sound like you could be a scum doctor (but that would imply there is a vig in the game). The game description gives me a feel that everybody has been there a long time.

I would like others to give their thoughts on the flavor. I am not sure how to proceed since the only other player with any votes I have near the top of my list would be PEN/Tommy. Cry has been active across the site much more than in this game. Doesn't quite say 'first game on the site and having the role of Doc' to me.

Other conflicts are with the claim of crashing computers when here activity elsewhere was not effected.

[bionicchop2]

I had a feeling something like that was going to happen with the case on crywolf, a darned-good feeling. Sigh...

Please expand on this.

[bionicchop2]

I'm willing to believe the claim for now. Flavor seems okay and I expect a doc, so unless she's counter-claimed, I'm happy.

Also, in my opinion, lowered activity is a doc-tell, bionic.

Let's Lynch Darox. It's not like it's out of nowhere, he was nearly lynched yesterday and for good reason. He's only gotten scummier since then. If everyone who reads the thread votes for Darox, we could get him strung up by deadline.

Some counter points:

-I honestly expected a doc claim from cry if she was scum which was part of the reason I wanted enough time to digest before deadline. Doc is the most often fake claimed power role by the first scum forced to claim.

-I am unsure if a doc should CC. Part of the reason scum fake claim doctor is to out the real doctor. If it meant we caught scum, I guess don't really mind trading a power role.

-In my only game as doctor, my activity did not drop (I am highly active anyway though). I haven't seen other doctors take this approach either - but it obviously doesn't mean they can't.

-On Darox, I still feel that is an incorrect lynch (as I stated in my unvote). His voting tells me he is more likely to be town than scum (does not eliminate him being scum). I have come to believe his playstyle is causing an innacurate read on him. I would be hard pressed to move my vote back to him when I have other people I view as scummier.

Hopefully we get a spike in activity over the weekend.

[bionicchop2]

Numbers are mine added for reference:

(1)Which of Dorox's votes in particular suggest he is town?

(2)It's true, Doc is the classic scum claim, but I'm willing to wait and see if she's nightkilled, rather than risk killing our doc.

(3)I find that docs tend to be more catious than regular townies. It's not 100%, of course. YMMV.

(1) - It isn't any one vote. I have been working on some theories about how scum vote throughout the course of the game (which if they turn out to be too accurate will ironically become null in the future for anybody I have played with). I believe the old tell used to be that scum would vote for more players (wishy washy) and spread suspicion around. This was before I played here and I tried to look for that type of voting while scum hunting. Then I noticed that I vote more on day 1 than most players in any game I have played in. I recently (since this game started) went back and analyzed some of my completed games. For the most part (with few exceptions) scum were doing the exact opposite. It seemed to be scum did not want to confront and accuse too many players to limit the amount of attention they got. They were more decisive in who they voted for and had a tendency to stick with 1 person until they were lynched (or an opportune lynching jumped out).

So, when I look at the voting, I just went post by post (not current - stopped when I made my unvote on Darox as voting in later days is less conclusive in general using this analysis). I include myself for my own comparative purposes and don't expect others to associate me as town in this manner.

bionicchop2
(r)
# # vote iamausername
##vote: Crywolf
vote Lowell
---Day 2---
vote crywolf
##vote elias
vote TonyMontana
##vote Darox
=====================
crywolf
(r)##Vote: Lowell
## Vote: Lowell
##Vote: Lowell
---Day 2---
##Vote: Tommy
=====================
Darox
(r)Vote: Ythill
##Vote: iamausername
Vote: Rashiminos
##Vote: Lowell
##Vote: Lowell
---Day 2---
##Vote: TonyMontana

Darox had the most diverse voting choices out of the remaining players alive. My top suspects only voted for Lowell (excluding random) throughout the course of the day and never considered anybody else.

Lowell: Bus Driver, Vanilla Townie, was Lynched Day One
(r)##vote Elias
vote tony
## vote rash
##vote crywolf
=====================
iamausername: Piano Teacher, Miller, was killed Night One.
(r)Vote: bionicchop
##vote: crywolf
##vote: Darox

The dead townies also changed their votes a decent amount (iamuse notably less). I see Darox as playing a similar - but not exact - style as Lowell. Follows hunches and doesn't post great reasoning until pressed. I don't have the meta on Darox to look for subtleties on his town play vs. scum play though.

Now that I have posted this, any future voting can no longer play into my voting decisions.

(2) I am not completely against this, but would be more accepting if I saw a clearer lynch alternative.

(3) I could see doc's playing cautious. It is not impossible for cry to be doc, but there is sure a hell of a lot of evidence pointing the other direction.

[bionicchop2]

Oh, sure. I'm the Piano Teacher, and because I tortured you all as kids by forcing you to play scales and stuff, you have an irrational hatred of me and will find me guilty even though I'm not.

If we look at this - we all were tortured by Iam as kids - implying all of the townies have been here since they were children. I may be reading too much into this, but it seems like some doctor who comes from the big city would not have grown up here and have any opinion of the Piano Teacher.

[bionicchop2]

I hate when people get bailed out by a PR role claim after playing like shit.

Here is why I remain skeptical. Out of my completed games:

-I have been doc twice. I have never claimed doc.

-2 of my 4 completed minis had a protown role blocker (of which I was one) and no doctor.

-There have been 4 doctor claims (in 2 games) in my completed games. The first was scum. The other 3 were in the same game. The first in that game was a lying townie, the 2nd was scum and the final 'doc' to claim was the actual doc.

I do not believe this claim at all.

1. She claimed with a question mark (typo? You have to hit shift to make a question mark. A comma or slash would have been believable as a typo.)

2. She did not provide the flavor in the original post and the flavor does not seem fitting for the game.

3. The 'breadcrumb' Ythill pointed out is a slight question in my mind. I am leaning towards coincidence, but you never know. I would think somebody with the wherewithal to breadrumb a role would mention it in their claim (since they would know the value of breadcrumbing and the implicit doubt that comes with most claims).

4. I have not seen one post from her that I view as protown. You can call her new if you want, but scum can be new too. Nobody lets Lowell slide with a meta that is generally scummy, but when someone's meta is newbie you can get away with absolutely anything you want it seems.

My vote is staying where it is unless the deadline comes up and my vote is needed to avoid a no lynch. None of the other 3 players with votes on them are high on my suspect list.

[bionicchop2]

I protected Rash N1 because he seemed to be pretty productive and I wanted to see him last to the next day.

Could you elaborate a little more on your decision here. Rash didn't stand out to me as super productive on D1 and I thought a few people called him out as being unproductive.

Further, could you explain your thoughts on Iamusername and your opinion of him during day 1.

[bionicchop2]

I'm trying to wait at least one night before I decide to lynch a claimed power role. What are you and bionic up to?

I am trying to lynch who I think is scum instead of blindly believing a claim. If we mislynch today, then tomorrow is mislynch and lose without something unforeseen happening (assumes standard of 3 scum). I feel if she isn't lynched when we have a mislynch available as a safeguard, then she won't be lynched tomorrow either. This gives 2 free days to my top suspect for using the most common fake claim in the game.

I would prefer to lynch her instead of everybody scrambling for a hasty lynch of somebody else. If people cared enough, they would have pushed wolf to a claim quicker instead of leaving us 1 day from deadline.

[bionicchop2]

That's L-1 if I'm not mistaken. Any inclination to claim now, Darox?

Wolf never unvoted from the other convenient wagon she hopped on in her haste to lynch anybody who wasn't her without actually making an effort to scum hunt. Oh the glories of claiming a power role and the immunity from being held to townie standards.

[bionicchop2]

I don't like either of these wagons. I would be shocked if wolf comes up doc at the end of the day. With that said, Tony is higher on my list than Darox, so I may as well tie up the voting.

unvote;vote tony

Mod

- count down to deadline? I will try to check back in later and if I need to flip my vote over because nobody is online, I will.

[bionicchop2]

Yuck, 2 of my top suspects are on the Darox wagon.

[bionicchop2]

Well, I wouldn't blame a vigilante for killing either.

I would based on pure numbers. The vigilante - assuming this was the work of a vigilante - has put us at mylo when we could have had a mislynch. Now if we get it wrong, the game is pretty much over.

Thoughts:

- I am not sure if a retired cop is the same as a cop. If so, then we lynch Tony. I tried to follow Darox assuming he had investigated Tony at the beginning of the day, but he outright denied any form of soft claim, so I dropped that thought.

- I think we need to mass claim, with flavor.

[bionicchop2]

@wolf: Whom did you "protect" and why?

I just came back to ask this question.

[bionicchop2]

Yesterday was the best day for scum, nolynch = no info.

While I usually agree with this, I don't feel this was the case here. I was online at deadline and could have lynched Darox. I couldn't bring myself to flip over. I decided I would rather have 9 alive today with the info from the night and the ability to lynch twice (assuming the first lynch misses). Now we are sitting at likely 3:5 scum:town and needing 5 to lynch (would have needed 5 to lynch at 3:6 also). This means scum either need to bus or every town player needs to agree.

As far as the information we gained:

Vote Count

(6 to lynch)
Darox (5): M4yhem, TonyMontana, crywolf, fhqwhgads, Ythill
TonyMontana (5): Darox, Oman, Rashiminos, pickemgenius, bionic

Not voting (0):

Whoever killled Darox - IMO - was on his wagon. Either a vig or scum. If they weren't, a deadline flip would have been easy. Also looking at the wagons, I would say anywhere from 3-4 killers are on there and I am not lynching anybody on the Tony wagon today.

2/5 people on Tony's wagon were killed last night.

Scenarios I can't see:
- Tony town + Ythill scum (since ythill was around at deadline.)
- rashiminos scum (not impossible, but he could have easily voted Darox at deadline being the other person around)
- scum being on Tony's wagon

If Tony is somehow town, scum would almost definitely be M4yhem, crywolf and f.

If I was allowed to choose who was lynched today, I would choose in this order: crywolf, m4yhem, Tony, F, ythill.

[bionicchop2]

I'd be happy to claim and think everyone else should too if this is really the endgame. How do we decide the order?

popcorn (I think that is the term) IMO. Crywolf has already claimed, so we can start with her picking the next person and explaining why. Then that person claims and picks until completed.

[bionicchop2]

If crywolf is your top suspect for scum, should you really be letting her pick first?

who scum picks (if she is scum) can also provide information. The only fair way to do it is for somebody who has already claimed to pick next. It is just an extension of the popcorn picking to before we mass claimed from my perspective (as if I picked her to claim first and she is picking who claims 2nd). If she hadn't claimed yet, she would be my pick to claim first and would then be picking the next claim anyway.

[bionicchop2]

hungry for some popcorn

[bionicchop2]

OK, since crywolf is MIA, I vote that M4yhem claim first and then select the next claim.

I actually have no problem with anybody starting (including myself if needed) in order to give us maximum time before deadline.

[bionicchop2]

I can tell you, I tracked pickmegenoius last night. No target, of course, but I did get a front row view of his death.

I don't like this at all. Why would you track PEG? You never mentioned being suspicious of him. Why wouldn't you track Darox or better yet crywolf? If you are a tracker, you were probably the best shot at getting any sort of definitive answer about her (though we would have to trust you and your results). You track her and if she didn't visit Rash, you would know she was lying.

[bionicchop2]

CLAIMS UPDATE:

crywolf: big city doc
m4yhem: florist/vig
Rashiminos: crossing guard / vanilla
TonyMontana: Ice Cream Man / Tracker
Oman: Librarian / Watcher


next up to claim: ???? Oman needs to choose

left to claim: bionic, ythill, fhqwhgads

[bionicchop2]

In order to expedite this:

I am the Game Shop Owner (vanilla). People hang out at my shop every night to play games (RPGs and such).

I choose fhqwhgads to claim next leaving Ythill to bring up the caboose.

=============
CLAIMS UPDATE:

crywolf: big city doc
m4yhem: florist/vig
Rashiminos: crossing guard / vanilla
TonyMontana: Ice Cream Man / Tracker
Oman: Librarian / Watcher
bionicchop2: Game Shop Owner / Vanilla


next up to claim: fhqwhgads

left to claim: ythill, fhqwhgads

[bionicchop2]

crywolf: big city doc
m4yhem: florist/vig
Rashiminos: crossing guard / vanilla
TonyMontana: Ice Cream Man / tracker
Oman: Librarian / watcher
bionicchop2: Game Shop Owner / vanilla
fhqwhgads: Newspaper Editor / vanilla
Ythill: Postman / vanilla

Here are some thoughts (just on claims):

1. We need the n1 target and results from Tony as well as both days results from Oman.

2. Watcher / Tracker seem to be a proper combo with doctor being the outcast (doesn't mean other combos are not possible).

3. At this point, I have no reason not to think m4yhem is telling the truth (desppite my suspicions on Elias). Nobody else has claimed responsibility for a death last night and I assumed one was a vigilante kill. It also fits my belief Darox's killer was on his wagon.

4. Despite me thinking a tracker makes sense, I don't like the claim or the target at all.

5. I highly doubt we have both a watcher and a doctor as protective roles. One is lying IMO.

[bionicchop2]

2. Because watcher/tracker are half as powerful as a cop each, they work with the doctor.

5. Watcher isn't protective, its investigative.

I disagree on these 2 points. I think a tracker can be just as powerful as a cop. Yes, if one mafia sends in the kill, you can get false innocent investigations, but there are benefits to a tracker. If mafia has other power roles, you can find them as well as clear a town person in the same investigation (if scum targets a player and their role isn't something that would target their partners, you get a confirmed innocent).

A watcher is certainly protective. Basically it allows a tracker or cop to claim and mafia would get caught if they killed the player. While not directly protection, it guarantees catching a mafia if they are killed and serves as a very strong deterrent.

[bionicchop2]

M4yhem, did you get any information about elias' nightchoice on N1?

Strange that the vig did not make a choice on night 1?

I find both these comments a little odd. I think it is pretty obvious there was no vigilante kill on n1 (he had already mentioned it anyway).

I also would not expect a vigilante to kill every night - and typically not on n1.

[bionicchop2]

I find both these comments a little odd. I think it is pretty obvious there was no vigilante kill on n1 (he had already mentioned it anyway).

I also would not expect a vigilante to kill every night - and typically not on n1.

I asked, because I had tracked elias on N1, and I missed the post where M4yhem said this.
And from fgweghkqf's post, I don't think he did...

May I ask you why you FOS'd elias early in the day (d2) if you tracked him to no one?

Starting the day by lamenting the loss for the town is a very old scumtell.

FoS:Elias

I would also like your reasons for selecting the people you tracked. I ask because they sound like convenient tracks where the results were stated after you knew the actions of the players. You say you tracked PEG, who obviously visited no one - so an easy track claim (also gives you reason to be visiting PEG if anybody saw you there). You also say you tracked elias, but did not post that when you posted your original claim. You waited until after M4yhem posted and said they visited no one. You say you missed it, but that doesn't make it true. I also find it odd you didn't track Oman n1 when you IGMEOY'd him to end the day.

I know Oman isn't going to like me questioning the tracker, but some things just aren't sitting with me. If the mod can go miller with no cop, I don't see why he wouldn't go watcher with no tracker (or vice versa).

[bionicchop2]

If the mod can go miller with no cop, I don't see why he wouldn't go watcher with no tracker (or vice versa).

Why is watcher/tracker a "thing"?

I don't take any issue with your responses to my questions, so I will just address this: Watcher and tracker seem to be a fairly common combination and are often associated with each other. Tracker / watcher seems more common than cop / watcher and tracker / doc.

[bionicchop2]

Well if you say it's common... I mean, the connection between having a miller and a cop is obvious, I just didn't understand why tracker/watcher would be a symbiotic relationship....

I could be wrong. I have never researched it or anything like that. My perception is they are commonly paired. This may come from playing elsewhere. They aren't linked in the same way as miller / cop where 1 (miller) actually has no importance without the other (cop).

[bionicchop2]

OK, day has been open for 5 days and the popcorn is complete. Deadline is in 9 days and we only have 1 vote out that I recall. We need to get some wagons built up for discussion.

vote:fhqwhgads

===============
Elias
Crywolf
Tommy
Oman
===============
TonyMontana
Rashiminos
Yhtill
fhqwhgads
===============
Darox
===============

Looking at this, 2 people in my top tier have died and flipped town. I didn't expect all of them to be scum, but now it is looking like only 1 (I think one of cry/oman is scum, but not both). Darox showed up as town as I expected. This leaves my gray area of people who could have gone either way depending on future votes / posts.

Right now, I am going to avoid voting for a claimed power role (hence not sticking to my top tier with Oman / Wolf). I think if we lynch correctly, the town power roles can figure out if any of the others are fake. I am currently leaning towards believing Tony on his claim either way. I think scum looks like:

1 of Oman / Crywolf
+
2 out of Rash / Ythill / fhqwhgads

Out of the 2nd group, fhqwhgads has provided the least content. His votes have stayed on either Lowell or Darox for most of the game with a brief period on Wolf. He hasn't seemed to look beyond that small group in an attempt to find scum.

[bionicchop2]

Oman - I notice your vote is still on Tony (from before claims), but you expressed an opinion against lynching the tracker today. Is the vote left as an oversight or is it intentional?

[bionicchop2]

Ythill - as you know I am a big supporter of the idea of crywolf being scum as I have been all game. The only problem I see right now is that

if

that lynch ends up being incorrect, it is the most harmful incorrect lynch we could have.

We have 8 players left with an assumed 3 scum. This puts us at a theoretical mylo where if we mislynch (leaves 4 town, 3 scum) and scum night kill, the game is over. Now, not banking on wolf to make a correct save if she is actually doc, but if she is doc, she can protect the vigilante (who I currently believe). The vigilante gives us a chance to rectify a mistake during this day phase. A correct vig shot puts it back at 3 town 2 scum going into tomorrow if we lynch wrong during the day.

With all that said, I prefer to lynch correct today. There are many ways relying on a vigilante can go wrong - none of which I feel are beneficial to discuss now.

[bionicchop2]

Oman - I think vigilante definitely needs to shoot and doctor needs to protect the vigilante. If cry is doctor, she only has 1/7 chance of protecting the right person (she could protect scum which is why it isn't 1/4). On the other hand, the vigilante has 2/6 chance of killing scum.

Since I only put a small amount of hope in cry being the doctor, I really don't want to rely on that.

If we do hit scum today, then I say vigilante must not kill. We would be at 2 scum 4 town going into night and assumed 2/3 the following day. A misfire by vig puts it at 2/2 and negates a correct lynch.

[bionicchop2]

Good point bionic. Although directing the cop was a pretty crappy move on your point.

I am pretty sure you meant doc here. Look at it this way - if we had one cop and one doc, we would all tell the doc to protect the cop. If we mislynch and the vig is our best shot of recovering, then you are damn right I am going to direct a doctor to protect them. If we lynch scum, then I don't care who is protected.

[bionicchop2]

So you are telling me that if crywolf is Doc and given her track record of protections, you would be confident in the night decision?

I choose to not take risks in this case where any alternative thinking by an individual can cost the game. Let's not forget this is crywolf's first game.

Let's just avoid the issue and focus on finding scum today. We now have 1 week to do so and we have 3 votes placed. Those not making any efforts to vote or even discuss the wagons which have started (or new wagons to starts) need to make an effort to do so immediately.

[bionicchop2]

I really dislike it when strategy is spelled out in game. The only time this is excused is when there is no mathematical possibility scum can win.

What about when there is no mathematical possibility town can win if a specific role dies (if we mislynch)?

[bionicchop2]

OK, so deadline in 1 week and nobody is posting or voting. Super. New plan.

No Lynch! (and no vig kill)

Yeah, I said it. I don't think the way this game is playing that enough votes would be accurately placed in 7 days for a proper lynch. The night phase would allow the power claims to do whatever it is they do and gain some more information.

I am not going to scramble and jump on a last minute lynch if players don't start voting and discussing. I would prefer a solid discussion and a thought out lynch today, but if a solid discussion does not occur, my vote will not be tossed on a wagon just for the sake of lynching.

[bionicchop2]

I am trying to lynch who I think is scum instead of blindly believing a claim. If we mislynch today, then tomorrow is mislynch and lose without something unforeseen happening (assumes standard of 3 scum). I feel if she isn't lynched when we have a mislynch available as a safeguard, then she won't be lynched tomorrow either. This gives 2 free days to my top suspect for using the most common fake claim in the game.

These sound like the words of a player who is (1) convinced that wolf is scum and (2) annoyed that, if she's allowed to live into N2 and survives, her buddies will have an easy time keeping her from the gallows on D3. Fine. But now he's arguing pretty vehemently about why the setup demands that she not be killed at LYLO. Makes me wonder why.

One way to interpret bionic's post is as a preemptive lead in to today's arguments. Kind of like saying,

okay... since you guys talked me out of it today, I'll let wolf slide, but if we don't lynch her today we can't tomorrow.

Nope, no preemptive anything. The dynamics of the game are quite different today than they were yesterday to where if I am wrong on crywolf (I have been wrong when I have been more certain before) the consequence is game over. If I am wrong on someone else, we have a slight chance of recovery if I am also wrong on crywolf. Leaving crywolf alive is purely from a statistical standpoint for me.

[bionicchop2]

Ythill - I explained the difference between the two days. Yesterday we were in the position to lynch wrong and be here the next day to fix the issue. Today we are not in that position. We also did that fun little mass claim at the beginning of the day which gives ample opportunities to prove / disprove power roles. I am not so stubborn to tunnel in on wolf and not think about other players.

I would have had no issue changing off her yesterday if any of the other players I thought were scum had wagons on them. I don't immediately jump off my top suspect onto a wagon of a player I think is town just because they claimed a role. It isn't like she is sitting there at L-1 and I am refusing to hammer. Nobody is even discussing lynching her besides you. If she had a legitimate wagon on her, then I would be more inclined to consider it, but I am certainly not going to push for it today knowing the risks of being wrong are far higher than they were.

[bionicchop2]

Whoa... Okay just was gonna post but then I saw this intense discussion between bionic and ythill so i'll be posting tomorrow when I have more than 4 hrs of sleep.

Heaven forbid more than 2 people have a discussion.

[bionicchop2]

I explained the difference between the two days. Yesterday we were in the position to lynch wrong and be here the next day to fix the issue. Today we are not in that position.

All of which you knew would be the case yesterday, if wolf didn't die. You were the one who predicted it. Yet your stance then was different than it is now. So, again, what's changed?

I feel like you are being intentionally dense. There was no way I could know we had a vigilante. I will spell it out one last time, then you can either decide what I have done is scummy (you haven't yet clearly indicated how any of your accusations would even be actions of scum) or you can decide they aren't. I am trying to give us 2 potential chances at catching scum. If you can't see the dynamics of the game are completely different today, then I can't help you. The absolute only reason I have changed my opinion on how to proceed is the NEW information that there is a vigilante.

Please explain the goal of your line of questioning right now. If you are accusing me of being scum, then vote me and press on. Does this make crywolf more or less likely to be scum? Does it make me more or less likely to be scum?

If you think it makes me scum, there are 2 scenarios - cry as my partner or cry as town. If you think cry would be my partner, then I would have had to be driving the longest bus ride ever as I have been on her from day 1. If you think wolf is town and I am scum, then explain the advantage for scum to try and keep the doctor alive when they can simply win the game by getting her lynched? IMO neither scenario makes sense, so this little side debate is meaningless. If you think my actions make me scum, then explain how. If not, then drop it. The only reason anybody would press this hard is they think I am scum, they are town and have a strong conviction wolf is scum, or they are scum and want crywolf dead so the game ends. If there is an alternate reasoning, I would love to hear it.

[bionicchop2]

@bionic: I love how you play into Ythill's suspicion on crywolf to clear yourself. He might think twice about it, but I see his post as commenting on something that does not feel right to him, which is his right. Your counter arguments are quite defensive and even a bit WIFOMy to my taste (hey! You think crywolf is scum! Thus I can't be!). We, by no means, KNOW crywolf is scum (an argument you seem to favour).

I also have to point out, even if cry IS the doc, you made her role moot by arguing she should protect the vig. This gives mafia a free pass to kill. They know who's going to be protected now. How is that helping us?

OK, since you obviously didn't read all of my post, I will rewrite a shorter post in response to you.

I think you missed the part where I outlined the scenario of cry as town and me as scum. You also miss where Ythill hasn't accused me of being scum (in fact he recently said there was a mountain of townie play). I am trying to figure out the motive behind the questioning. If he thinks I am scum, he should say it and explain why the actions he is focusing on make me more likely to be scum than town.

You also are missing the obvious point about the doc. Not sure if it is intentional or not. The idea is to keep the vigilante alive so he can shoot. It is pretty simple, so I don't see why it has been repeatedly missed. The percentage chance of the doc saving to give us another day is much lower than the percentage of a vigilante killing scum. The idea is that scum cannot kill the vigilante.

[bionicchop2]

You are right. I am wrong. GG. Well played.

[bionicchop2]

Where did bionic go?

21 hours since my last post and you are asking where I went?

These people have not posted since my last post:

M4yhem
fhqwhgads
Oman

These people have not voted for anybody or given any suspicions for today's lynch:

M4yhem
fhqwhgads
Rashiminos
Tony
Oman

Now I know Oman is being replaced and M4yhem was prodded. These people really need to give some thoughts or it will just end up with you and I having a circular argument for the rest of the day until one of us makes a typo everybody jumps on. Right now there seems to be just idle chatter going on.

[bionicchop2]

Right now there seems to be just idle chatter going on.

Well it may be idle chatter here, but I keep thinking about Tony's claim. I just don't believe it. Mainly because he's been asked several times to give some of the supposed "Flavor" and hasn't.

When you say 'several times', are you talking about the 2 times at 7:01 and 7:16 which occurred after his last post at 6:40? Those requests were an hour ago, so it seems odd to vote because he hasn't answered yet. At least you are voting though, so it is something to talk about.

[bionicchop2]

OK. You said flavor which confused me, because I never asked about the flavor. If you read carefully you will see Tony gave me an answer to my question in 794.

[bionicchop2]

So I read that, but I still would like some flavor.

OK, I will go back to my original point then that the flavor was only brought up after Tony's last post in the game and your reason stated for the vote is his lack of an answer to that question. Unless I am missing your definition of flavor, we are discussing 2 completely different lines of questioning and one has already been responded to.

If your only reason for the vote is the lack of an answer to a question he may not have even read yet, then I think your reasoning is pretty weak. If you have other reasons, please outline why he is your top suspect.

[bionicchop2]

3 days. Let's take some chances and make some votes. A timid town is a losing town.

[bionicchop2]

mod

- can we get a deadline extension while we have 2 players needing replacement? If we have 3 scum and 5 town left it would be a pain to try and lynch with 2 players MIA. If just 1 of them is town, we can't get 5 town votes together meaning a lynch on scum is impossible without scum bussing.

[bionicchop2]

Well, of all the vanilla's I'd also agree rash seems the most town. Even with his disagreement with rash (and his suspicion on me!), I also think Ythill comes across as town. That leads myself and bionic.

Based on your breakdown, you would expect to see 2 scum in the claimed power roles. Why haven't you mentioned this and suggested we have a better chance of catching scum in the power roles?

[bionicchop2]

Besides, I have no idea how many scum players we have. Do you?

Normal Mini is 3 scum 95% of the time (I haven't played in one that wasn't) and the standard ratio is 1 scum per 3 town to start the game. I like how you frame the question with an accusatory tone though.

[bionicchop2]

I didn't know the 'most probable' setup. I also make no assuptions. Hence my post on the vanilla townies have no hidden meaning.

Sorry. I guess coming on the heels of your vote, it seemed like you were suggesting I had extra knowledge.

[bionicchop2]

I am considering the deadline extension request.

TY - status of replacements?

[bionicchop2]

I like deadlines, just not on mylo with players missing!

(also thanks!)

[bionicchop2]

Oh and welcome back elias.

[bionicchop2]

nobody seems to be taking advantage of this extension.

I would like to consider going back to a plan of no lynching to bring about lylo tomorrow (vig does not shoot).

[bionicchop2]

workin on it...

Thanks

Elias

M4yhem

Elias

M4yhem

Elias

M4yhem

Elias!

[bionicchop2]

I think bionic may be bored

Rampant lurking in all my games has me entertaining myself anyway possible.

[bionicchop2]

Sorry I asked for a deadline extension. I didn't realize nobody cared.

[bionicchop2]

OK, I definitely want to nl then and think that is the only proper play.

unvote;vote no lynch

One less suspect tomorrow and hopefully much more information.

[bionicchop2]

oh - reason being the vig can't shoot if that wasn't obvious.

[bionicchop2]

Is it just me, or has trust in the vig claim dropped somewhat since the telling of the one-shot aspect was delayed?

Not sure it would make it any different. Only other possibility is he is a serial killer. There were 2 kills. No reason someone anti-town would come in and claim they only had 1-shot if they were lying. I have seen more 1-shot vigilantes than unlimited shot vigilantes.

[bionicchop2]

Somehow I don't think m4yhem not mentioning he was one-shot was a mistake. Having a Vig was kind of the cornerstone for our night strategy..

His last post was while we were still claiming (Oct. 11) and no plan had been outlined yet.

[bionicchop2]

Ohhhh...I see. Thought you were implying the move was anti-town.

[bionicchop2]

Since I have tons to catch up could someone please give some input in advance why a no lynch is being considered?

My response last night was gray screened.

Right now we have an assumed 3 scum / 5 town, so if we mislynch only a doctor save would extend the game. We previously thought we had another vig shot and could use that as a back-up plan (even though we are not sold on the doctor being legit, it was a small hope if we failed today).

Without that possibility, it makes the most sense to let all the claimed roles go through another night. We will have more information tomorrow and can make a better informed decision.

Percentage wise, it also give us a higher chance of catching scum. Today 3/8 leaves it at 37.5% scum and each town player has 3/7 chance of choosing correctly (42%). By tomorrow, we will have dropped a suspect and be at 3/7 with each town looking at 3/6. On top of that, there is a chance we get claimed night results which conflict with each other. This would let us focus on a smaller group of players to try and get a correct lynch.

I can't see any pro town reason to force a lynch today.

[bionicchop2]

There's really no need to vote no lynch unless you disagree with the deadline extension.

I am marking that I will not vote for a player when I feel there is a better option - no lynch.

[bionicchop2]

Also, without the extension, we wouldn't have known the vig was 1-shot, so your question is a little loaded. I agree with the extension at the time it was given. If I had known vig could not shoot, I would have voted no lynch prior to the original deadline.

[bionicchop2]

I've got new evidence that narrows the pool considerably, but I'm waiting until DR catches up a bit before I post it... you'll see why.

What if DR fails to post before deadline?

Then they suck as a replacement.

[bionicchop2]

Are you serious trying to compare a nl yesterday to one on mylo?

You are also trying to act like you know scum will kill someone 'trusted'. PEG was far from trusted and a few people suspected him. Someone 'trusted' is also more likely to have a doctor or watcher (if either are legit) on them.

Your reasoning for no-lynch is not only flawed, but filled with what-if's and assumptions. The corner stone of a WIFOM argument.

I think you need to reread what WIFOM is. You also need to explain the 'what-if's and assumptions' I am making. My argument is the night will bring us more information than we have right now. No matter what happens at night, that will hold true. I have also argued there is a very good chance of 2 power roles (or an investigative role and a vanilla) contradicting each other and helping to focus the search. The what-ifs are being used as a counter argument. 'what if they kill someone we don't suspect', 'what if the power roles don't contradict'...well then we are in the same situation we are in today with minimal information gained. The fact remains

we will not be worse off and there is potential to be much better off

.

I go back to your comparison with not lynching darox. If we were in that situation today and we lynched darox, the game would end. Not exactly beneficial to town. Please outline one situation where not lynching today puts us in a worse situation tomorrow and then support your vote for me with a reason how no lynching today is something scum would want to do.

I see many reasons scum would want to hurry up and lynch today. The top reason is the obvious chance to win immediately. Scum would not want a night phase where they can be investigated when they can get somebody lynched right now.

[bionicchop2]

I'm entertaining thoughts of writing a case on Oman. He has been rather scummy on both wagons, especially his confidence on Darox being town, which makes NO sense given his claim. My bet his is confidence comes from being scum, and he overplayed it to score town points.

I just finished a game where I replaced Oman (same time he was replacing out of here). He did a good job of looking scummy there too, but he was a vigilante.

[bionicchop2]

Ythill - I actually like your recent 'case' (if we want to call it that) for one person voting you as scum (because I have been in a similar situation where I used the ability to end game to reach a conclusion on who scum was). There is always a chance of scum worried to jump too quickly. There is also the obvious fact none of us know if you are town or scum (unless you are scum, then 2 people know). I think if I knew you were town, I would follow you in this argument, because scum always find a way to make it happen when the game can be won with a quick bandwagon.

I guess I am saying you make a good point from your perspective, but it can't really be agreed upon by anybody else without being certain of your alignment.

[bionicchop2]

Ythill - if Crywolf turns up town at some point during this game, you will need to recall your own L-3 theory.

[bionicchop2]

I wouldn't be voting her if I thought she was going to turn up town. On the off chance that happens, I'll suppose I'll deal with it then.

Why the preemptive argument?

I just noticed the vote count which was posted right before I mad my comment. Also, with the deadline coming up, it seems like a perfect chance for mafia to jump on and quick lynch.

Add to that the recent trend of power roles playing poorly, combined with active deadline participation from Wolf, I have started to get a tingle in my gut telling me to start thinking of the possibility of Wolf being town. There is also something about Oman's claim which bugged me and I am going to find it right now to make sure my thoughts on it are known before the day ends.

[bionicchop2]

Librarian. I see people come through every day and can check their reading records.

Watcher.

Can we wait until later to do targets we may out something we don't need to.

The last part is what has been bugging me. I can't tell if I am just reading into it too much.

It felt like he was waiting to make sure his target claims and results didn't conflict with something someone else claimed. When he first posted this, I thought he was going to reveal he saw somebody visit someone and he was waiting to see if that person had a claim to match it (otherwise they could be a scum power role). It turned out none of his targets had visitors, so his fear of revealing something seems a bit odd. On top of this, he claimed after we already had claims (with targets) from a vig, doc and tracker. I have been giving Oman/DR a townie pass since they tend to play a little more active and aggressive as scum, but I am 2nd guessing this.

[bionicchop2]

You know it is a bad lynch when the guy who hasn't read yet jumps on to put the player at L-1 in an end game situation.

Since Tony posted and could have hammered, I can be sure he is town if cry ends up being town.

====
Vote Count (5 to lynch)

crywolf (4): Ythill, Rashiminos, fhqwhgads, Dead Rikimaru
No Lynch (2): bionic, Tony
Tony: crywolf
Dead Rikimaru: Elias

Not voting (0)
====

***WARNING BELLS***

This vote count should be a huge warning not to hammer. Maybe there is bussing going on, but more likely is that Cry is town. 4 players are not voting for wolf (obv) - wolf, tony, elias and myself.

I am pretty convinced all 3 scum are voting right now, but 2 minimum. I have said before I think Elias is town. I highly doubt SK and he is the only one claiming a kill. I don't doubt his claim right now. Again, Tony could have hammered and I was feeling like the tracker claim was probably the other power role I felt confident with. Cry obviously won't vote for herself and I have made my feelings known about lynching today. Even if you think I am scum, it should be pretty clear cry has scum on her wagon. This is far from an ideal bussing situation, so that tingle in my gut is now much stronger.

DR has jumped up my scummy list with the vote they placed.

[bionicchop2]

cry - I know your vote is on Tony, but if you are town you should realize that Tony is town by not hammering you (which ends the game if you are town) and you can feel confident we have a tracker. If you are scum, then this doesn't mean much.

[bionicchop2]

If anybody besides DR answers that, I will be very sad.

[bionicchop2]

***deadline is 11 hours and 14 minutes from this post***

[bionicchop2]

Shhh??? What? The deadline will come if we announce how much longer we have or not.

I think he is hoping we can get our no lynch through deadline ignorance (he is voting nl along with me).

Really all that needs to be done is convince Elias it is not the best course of action to lynch here today. He has suggested he will lynch at deadline.

[bionicchop2]

I'm the Crossing Guard. I've been keeping ungrateful kids from meeting high-speed cars as long as I can remember.

In my spare time I also contribute my responsible voting skills to the community (vanilla).

Next up is Tony.

I find the underlined portion of Rash's claim to be odd.

I point this out because I found his vote for wolf and doing such as voting for 'wolfscum' after not voting for her any other day. I just find it odd because her patterns today match her patterns every other day - even the day she was forced to claim (Rash was not a part of that wagon). Now all of a sudden when the game is on the line he feels confident enough to vote her?

[bionicchop2]

I am heading out to play basketball. Probably won't be back until 30 minutes before deadline. My vote is where I want it.

[bionicchop2]

but I can imagine that I, too, would vote for a player I'd found suspicious and who was the only realistic alternative to no lynch, if I'd replaced in as town with his timing.

Could you point to the part where he noted even being mildly suspicious of Crywolf?

I haven't finished reading, but I antecipate I won't have time to finish in time.

I see it's between No lynch and crywolf, and since I think No lynch is always bad I will go and

vote: crywolf

He has had ample time to catch up on the thread, so timing is just a crap excuse to drop a vote in on a wagon at end game. Also, somebody who has played on the site for 2 years can't honestly say no lynch is always bad.

[bionicchop2]

I refrained from taling about it too much yesterday, but Tony-town was the obv-choice for NK. The move protects wolf is she is scum and keeps the heat on her if she is town.

I saw this more as crywolf is scum. I dropped about as many hints to her as I could that Tony needed to be protected. The whole exercise of poiting out and asking her if she realized Tony was town was so he could live through the night (despite somebody else implying it was meant to clear me).

I also don't think scum try to kill him without knowing there is no doctor.

DR needs to post very soon.

[bionicchop2]

There is another possibility though (I almost forgot about). I will wait to hear from cry and DR before voting.

[bionicchop2]

It was between Bionic and Elias. But I protected Elias just incase he was lying about being a one shot vig to keep the scum away from him.

Why was Tony not an option to protect? Why was I considered?

Tony was the most important player left if he was protown. If you are town, he could have hammered you at any point towards the end of the day and scum would have won. This should have confirmed him as tracker to you.

Elias would not have shot even if he wasn't a 1-shot vig since a misfire would have not given us a chance for this day phase. I am only vanilla - and not cleared. There is no logical reason to consider protecting me.

I will wait to see what DR says, then likely vote for wolf. The only explanation I would have considered for Tony dying and wolf being town would have been role blocking.

[bionicchop2]

I was trying to be patient and wait for both claimed protectors to post.

I was chomping at the bit for the thread to re-open so we could get conclusive evidence of Wolf as town. I would mock you endlessly about how right I was to change my mind and go a more cautious route. I get a feeling I won't get that opportunity.

[bionicchop2]

While I share the sentiment of wolfscum, I find it disconcerting that bionic is so keen to vote on lylo. Are you that sure wolf is scum?

Do you really find it all that disconcerting? Yesterday was mylo if we did not have a doctor, yet I recall a certain someone (yes you) voting for crywolf yesterday (were you NOT certain she was scum, but putting your vote there anyway when you did not have to lynch yesterday and a mislynch loses the game?). That same certain someone (you again) voted me for wanting to no lynch in that situation (displaying your fondness of voting in a mylo situation).

Your last statement is the biggest load of crap I have read all game.

[bionicchop2]

After the late-game yesterday and the deductions we've made about wolf today, I'd like to know people's theories on whether this setup would be balanced if both of them were lying scum.

Hard to answer without knowing what roles mafia have.

[bionicchop2]

Or am I wrong and you are not proposing to vote asap?

Yup. I just said I would likely vote crywolf after I heard from DR.

[bionicchop2]

I hate to make posts saying "I'm catching up and will post later", normally I just catch up and post, but yesterday I was reading the game and suddenly MS stopped loading for me for the rest of the day. Other sites, incluiding Grey Lab, were working fine.
I don't know if this happened just to me but later today (if everything goes well) I will finally "join" the game and the wait will be worth it.

How about you give your night results first then catch up later?

[bionicchop2]

@ DR: There is no pro-town reason to stall before giving your results from last night, but there is a very strong pro-scum reason. Post them immediately and explain why you didn't in your last post.

Well, if he had watched Tony he would have already posted instead of worrying about catching up.

Conclusions:
-we have the worst doctor and watcher combo in the history of mafia
=or=
-we have the worst doctor/watcher and 1 scum
=or=
-we have 2 scum

If it is the first, I see no way town can win.

[bionicchop2]

V/LA till after the weekend. Will have cellphone access, so I'll try to keep up.

Only 3 of us appear to care, so maybe it would be easier if we just got a conference call going anyway.

[bionicchop2]

risky vote, but I agree pressure needs to be applied.

[bionicchop2]

Good unvote there. L-3 is OK. L-2 doesn't feel good right now.

[bionicchop2]

@ bionic: What's up with the cheerleading?

It also serves to indicate I don't want somebody else bumping DR to L-2 right now. Nothing better for me to do in this game really. It passes the time while I wait for the 2 people critical to how we proceed. I could get into side a side debate with fhq who I still think is scummy, but it won't do anything for the game. I am voting for either DR or crywolf today and I am not going to get distracted while they lurk.

[bionicchop2]

I agree with your lynch subjects but want to add that we should try to get DR replaced today and just hang wolf. I've had nothing but bad luck with lynching absentees and I think it's best to force DR (or his replacement) to name his night target(s) before we hang him... more info for future deliberations.

I am not lynching anybody without night results from DR or a replacement. I honestly think if a replacement is called for, I would vote to abandon the game. The caveat to that would be if Oman was back in since I think he would be able to catch up quickly.

[bionicchop2]

I am not lynching anybody without night results from DR or a replacement.

If DR is scum, you are telling him how to win the game.

How? Maybe I should clarify that if he does show up and makes any form of posts without his night actions, I will vote him and wait for the day to end.

[bionicchop2]

Bottom line is: we need to lynch today no matter what he does.

This combined with:

I agree with your lynch subjects but want to add that we should try to get DR replaced today and just hang wolf.

also gives a perfect recipe if wolf is town and DR is scum. If he is intentionally lurking to avoid any kind of heat, your comments here encourage that play (again if he is scum and wolf is town).

I can't see anyway we can execute any lynch without somebody (either DR or a replacement) making a post and contributing something.

To take a mathematical approach to it:

If DR is town (only reason not to lynch him), there are 3 other town and 3 mafia. This makes it impossible to lynch any mafia player and only possible to lynch a town player (bussing obviously excluded).

If DR is mafia, then we have 4 town players left who can execute any lynch of their choosing. If he is mafia and crywolf is town, he has forced our hand to the other top suspect (cry) simply by being absent.

[bionicchop2]

I warned of your "mathematical approach" yesterday, citing it as evidence against the wisdom of a no lynch. Now you raise it to defend the idea that we should not lynch again, at LYLO, if a suspicious player lurks?

Where did you get this retarded idea? Where did I say I would nl at lylo? My original statement was meant to say I wasn't going to just lynch somebody else because DR isn't here (the I am not lynching anybody without results from DR) and I clarified that if he came back and posted something other than results, I would vote for him.

Every time I have any conversation with you that extends beyond 3 replies, I feel like banging my face into a wall since you jump to ridiculous conclusions. Maybe it is the lack of anything else going on in the game.

[bionicchop2]

Bionic is peculiarly quiet... your thoughts?

I'm still just waiting for an important piece of the puzzle to show up.

I am quite interested in why Rash threw a vote on Ythill. I understand if he thinks he is scummy, but he seems unphased by the fact we were supposed to have 2 roles which could protect the tracker, yet the tracker has turned up dead and nobody has a good explanation for it.

[bionicchop2]

3 posts and still nothing about last night...

[bionicchop2]

3 posts and still nothing about last night...

Nothing direct, but we can now assume that he either didn't watch Elias or didn't see wolf target Elias, because of this...

Next: My vote on crywolf

We can also assume he didn't watch Tony or he would have posted it already.

I also really doubt the claim in general because of this:

I noticed I am on top of everyone's suspicion list for the following reasons:

- Failed to post
- My vote on crywolf
- Never revealed Oman's results

Notice the last line. This implies any results DR would have are from Oman. DR replaced before last night.

Simply put, DR does not have any results of his own or he would have posted them by now.

I don't doubt the internet connection problems. I just doubt he is town.

[bionicchop2]

Simply put, DR does not have any results of his own or he would have posted them by now.

Simply put. This is stupid.
If I had no results I would just need to fake them. I had a loooooooong time to do it.

Yes, I had a result last night.

What if I simply came after ten days and posted them?
You would be the first to attack me saying I was faking them.

After ten days a lot has been said behind my back and I'm high on everyone's scumdar.
I need to clarify all that was past first so players will give proper weight to my findings.

BTW, to those yelling "stalling" (!@#$%)
Here is the deal: DO NOT ALLOW ANOTHER NO LYNCH. If I'm not finished until deadline (I will) simply lynch me.

lol. Somehow you think if you are town that hammering yourself on lylo helps in any way.

vote Dead Rikimaru

results. now.

[bionicchop2]

unvote

The next one will be real though.

[bionicchop2]

Why did you vote then unvote?

Do you think it was scummy for me to do it?

I have my reasons for what I did. I do want to vote DR and I would love to pressure him with L-2, but I don't feel safe leaving it there for any extended period of time.

[bionicchop2]

I can agree with that. I am still very wary of fhq. I am also not confident both you and DR are scum. Since I still think 2 vanillas out of rash,ythill and fhq are scum, leaving DR at l-2 would leave the fat in scum hands.

DR has 1 post to provide results or I will vote for him and cross y fingers.

[bionicchop2]

mod

- Can we get one more week due to DR's internet issues?

[bionicchop2]

mod

repeating request for deadline extension since Ythill and Rash had a quote-war explosion and I don't want my request lost.

[bionicchop2]

She was tageted by

fhqwhgads.
The flavor says something about him reading a Nursery tales book to crywolf.
The fact alone that fhqwhgads claimed vanilla is reason enough to vote him, since it's obviously a lie. So:
vote : fhqwhgads

Interesting. If what you say is true, it could very well mean crywolf is legit and was roleblocked, which would make scum confident they could kill Tony. This would be at the risk of losing one of their own if watched though.

IF he is telling the truth though, it would mean cry is possible (almost certainly) town and that would mean fhq, rash and ythill are all scum (or 3/4 vanillas).

[bionicchop2]

Thank you mr. mod

[bionicchop2]

OK, here are my thoughts:

Crywolf should no longer be a lynch candidate today. This is simply a matter of fhq and DR conflicting each other. Fhq claims vanilla and DR claims to have info proving otherwise.

If DR is telling the truth, I firmly believe fhq is a roleblocker and wolf would be cleared.

I do not like the delivery method of holding off on the night results, but fhq has been one of my top suspects (see my vote early yesterday).

@crywolf, I think you should unvote. If scum does have a power role (or roles), then both you and DR could be legit (and if his report is true, I think you are). This would mean no scum are currently voting.

[bionicchop2]

Wow, setting up tomorrow's lynch as well. Nice one. But if your plan works, there won't be a lynch tomorrow.

I am not sure this makes sense. What purpose does scum have to set up 2 lynches? He has set up a situation of you vs. him. If he is scum, he either gets you lynched today on a lie and wins, or he is lynched and nobody will care who he suspected.

Fine, enough with the rhetoric. Firstly, apologies to Ythill. This has almost cleared you 100% in my books. It also makes me wonder about rash's alignment, but that's an argument for tomorrow (if we have a tomorrow).

1. How does any of this clear Ythill?

2. Why were you never wondering about Rash's alignment?

I've been the one saying we should vote, rather than no-lynch.

DR also argued to vote instead of no lynch, so using this in your defense is pointless. In fact I would wager more scum argued to lynch yesterday than to no lynch. We already know Tony was town and nobody is arguing that Elias is anything but town. NL absolutely was the best play yesterday and I feel strongly that it was anti-town to push otherwise.

[bionicchop2]

I

can't wait

to hear Rash's opinion.

confirm vote Ythill

obv. disclaimer: Rash did not write the above statement.

[bionicchop2]

DR also argued to vote instead of no lynch, so using this in your defense is pointless. In fact I would wager more scum argued to lynch yesterday than to no lynch. We already know Tony was town and nobody is arguing that Elias is anything but town. NL absolutely was the best play yesterday and I feel strongly that it was anti-town to push otherwise.

I did not miss this. I have also said in my post, I believe this was another attempt to look pro-town. Believe what you will, but I don't think arguing against no-lynch is ever pro town, unless we have extreme circumstances. Maybe we did have extreme circumstances in your eyes. It wasn't extreme enough to me though.

From my perspective, 3 people who were pro-town felt strongly about a no lynch (myself, Tony, Elias). 4 people felt strongly about lynching - you, DR, rash and Ythill. Crywolf ended up leaning towards a no lynch (she was the lynch target, so that means little). No matter how you break it down, more town wanted a no lynch than wanted to lynch (even if wolf is scum, that means 2 scum wanted to lynch and 2 town wanted to lynch).

Obviously this is from my perspective. I guess we can discuss after the game if you turn out to be town and you still feel lynching yesterday was the best option.

The rest of your post makes sense. Not that I necessarily agree with all of it, but it does answer my questions.

[bionicchop2]

@ bionic: Why are you questioning fhq but not DR?

The simple answer is because I don't have any questions for DR right now and I don't plan on forcing questions just for the sake of asking both.

The longer answer is that there really is nothing in the content of DR's posts that really needs to be clarified. The scumminess all came from today and the delays in posting. Obviously the internet issues have been a major factor in limiting the number of posts.

The question fhq asked about the detail of the flavor has an obvious answer (I won't answer for DR though).

Coming into today, fhq had moved to my top suspect spot (he was my only vote yesterday). This is the main reason my questions have been for him. DR's claimed results just happen to be a perfect claim if fake. It answers my question as far as why scum would even attempt to kill Tony (had somebody who could prevent wolf from saving) and it identifies my top suspect as the culprit. I will go a little more into why I think DR may be telling the truth after I answer your next question.

@ bionic: I'm still thinking about that 3/4 'nillas as scum point and I have two more questions for you. You said that the revelation

almost

certainly clears wolf. Would you explain how you see it not clearing her?

If true, it would be 95% clearing in my mind. Depends on what role fhq has (assuming this is all true). There could be a scum role that visits scum for some reason (they do exist obviously, but I don't really see one that would fit in here). If he turns up scum RB, then I would say wolf is completely cleared.

Also, assuming you as town, the theory identifies the scum as myself, fhq, and Rash. How likley do you think it is that Rash and I are scum together?

As likely as any other combination.

Some additional comments:

- I am having trouble seeing wolf and DR as scum together. This would leave a town of Tracker / 1-shot vig / Miller / Nosy neighbor.

- If wolf is town and DR is scum, the sure-fire way to victory would have been any information that conflicted with Wolf. If the choice is between those 2, I would say wolf gets lynched 9 out of 10 times. Ythill already outlined how he could have done this (said he watched Elias and didn't see wolf visit).
- If wolf is scum and DR is town, then fhq is still scum and has some sort of scum assisting role where he visits scum.

- If only one of DR/wolf is scum, that still leaves 2/4 vanillas as scum - meaning Rash/Ythill are partners (from my perspective obv) OR one of them are partnered with fhq.

- If DR is scum, he is either bussing, or his partners are Ythill and Rash unless I see both DR and wolf as scum.

- fhq is obviously voting DR. Ythill shows no signs of voting fhq. Since I see 2+ vanilla claims as scum, that means one has to be bussing if DR is scum.

Some of that may have been redundant, but I am heavily leaning towards voting fhq. He has consistently been more suspicious to me throughout the game (more than Oman was) and the claimed results of the watching generates the simplest explanation for a lot of questions I had.

FOS fhq

with probable intent to vote.

Elias - since you said you were leaning towards DR, I would ask you to read fhq in isolation and see how you feel afterwards.

[bionicchop2]

@bionic: One last thing, what do you make of DR's stubbornness in not revealing his information until the last minute? I think he's had more than enough time to out me since he made numerous posts before he did it.

I think it is equally anti-town along with pushing for a lynch yesterday instead of giving any power roles a chance to find new information through the night phase.

I also see not protecting Tony as anti-town, but crywolf-town is becoming more and more likely.

[bionicchop2]

Again, I urge all of you to vote before deadline. Win or lose, let's do it by action, and not inaction.

Agreed.

vote fhqwhgads

I really am convinced the only reason scum would kill Tony last night (outside of crywolf being scum) is that they knew he would not be protected. Since I don't see any way BOTH crywolf and DR are scum, I believe crywolf was blocked. I also think Oman was less scummy that fhq throughout the game.

[bionicchop2]

Bionic, please unvote, at least until tomorrow evening so I have a chance to reread fhq and post an argument.

I am pretty sure you and Rash are his partners, so I don't think I am going to accomodate you on this one. If DR was scum, you and Rash would also have to be his partner. As I said, I can't see wolf as DR's partner if he is scum and if DR isn't scum, then wolf is almost certainly cleared by fhq visiting her.

[bionicchop2]

Does this mean you believe crywolf just made bad decisions in her protection choices?

Yes, right now that is how I feel.

[bionicchop2]

OK, all 3 people who could conceivably be a parter if DR was scum have posted since my vote for fhq last night (ythill, rash and cry). None of them have made any attempt to vote for fhq. I have moved from 95% to 99% sure of fhq being scum.

[bionicchop2]

Ythill - answer this:

What advantage does DR-scum have for framing fhq over framing crywolf (who in my eyes would have been an almost sure-fire lynch if DR was scum and decided to frame her)

[bionicchop2]

Ythill - answer this:

What advantage does DR-scum have for framing fhq over framing crywolf (who in my eyes would have been an almost sure-fire lynch if DR was scum and decided to frame her)

Wolf is scum.

So your argument is both DR and wolf are scum and we had a town of one-shot vig, tracker, miller and neighbor? Just checking.