Micro 1018: The King's New Robes | Game Over
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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DkKoba They/ThemSurvivorThey/Them
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Will be fixed in a moment - My mistakeretired
"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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This seems technically totally possible? Scum seamstress using her ability under this setup seems to just confirm the other town mystic. And it's not really a strong enough ability to justify the trade-off.In post 640, Dwlee99 wrote:Can someone actually explain how we know we aren't in
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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this thread's full of people who have been playing this game for way too long to not understand the setup
You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Obvtowns we’re town, I’m never this clueless as scum.
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Pink Panthers Goon
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P.edit Obviously (autocorrect sucks :/)
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Okay, so I do think PP is town because of some convincing obliviousness earlier in the game. T3 is town. I'm town. Everyone dead so far is almost definitely town. That leaves the two in ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan. I'm honestly pretty unsure which but I do lean town on Dwlee (gg if you and enchant have faked the performance yallve done itt tbh). And yeah as long as we lynch in those 3 (which we do have room to do before losing) then we win. Another way to put it is just that we win as long as one of the town in {me, ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan} avoids ever getting mislynched. Maybe that can be me, maybe it's safe to let that be Dwlee. I guess I do agree w the comment before that even after 4 mislynches our odds of winning remain pretty high.
Probably about to vote ArcAngel.
It doesn't feel totally right but there are good reasons for it (weird vt fakeclaim, non sequitor "counter claim", weird selfvote) and worst case scenario we get an info dump from the people she's targetted over the course of the game that conceivably identifies a Seamstress in the off chance that both she and dwlee are town.
But I guess that depends on which targets they've claimed?
ArcAngel has claimed...
ActionDan
Dwlee
Rockhopper
someone else
Enchant/Dwlee has claimed...
NotMafia
ActionDan
Rockhopper
someone else
why haven't you guys claimed your N3 targets?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Just to be clear, Mafia with Seamstress has the option not to act in order to keep ambiguous whether there is 1 or 2 mystics. As long as there are only two Mystic claims and no one claims a Suit and no one flips Seamstress, setup is indistinguishable between first and second possibilities. Lynching Mystic claims until a non-Mystic flip (all Mystic flips are mechanically confirmed even if Actress doesn't act) OR lynching Seamstress is only way to clarify between setup 1 and 2 here.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Another option I leave out above of course is the case where we lynch a Mystic and their flip exposes a Seamstress. Both mystics have claimed ActionDan as targets and ArcAngel has claimed Dwlee and each has selected one more unknown target last night. So odds are pretty good that we know after today whether there's a Seamstress among us?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Sorry for multiposting. I just wanna conclude: there's a lot of value in lynching a Mystic claim today, whether it's ArcAngel or Dwlee.
Suppose we're in the second setup where there are 2 mystics and 1 seamstress. Lynching ArcAngel (for example) is then guaranteed to check Dwlee and ActionDan and a third person (almost definitely either me or PP) for that role. This gives town a ~2/3 chance of identifying the seamstress and getting us a free lynch tomorrow.
Suppose instead we're in the first setup and one of Dwlee and ArcAngel is scum. Lynching the town among them similarly triggers a check of various players for the seamstress role, building our confidence that we're in that setup (though not confirming - there's one player not covered by the check). We then have pretty good odds of finding scum by lynching the other mystic claim.
Again assuming we're in the first setup but first lynching the scum among them confirms the remaining mystic as town. We then have a pool of 3 people to identify the last scum in (me, actiondan, pp). Because the game has gone from 4v2 to 3v1, we get two opportunities to do that.
Maybe my math is off here but at any rate this does seem like where we areYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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ActionDan He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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On paper all of that makes sense, but your odds change depending on the strength of your townreads/scumreads. For example, if you think PP is town, then Psyche should always be voting me as I should always be voting Psyche.
Do you think Dwlee is more town than PP Psyche?I'll give you a moment to let that sink in-
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ActionDan He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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DkKoba They/ThemSurvivorThey/Them
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Hey! Just a general reminder to not use the word "lynch" to refer to eliminations. No action will be taken for non malicious use of the term, but I will be sending warnings as per this rule update: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=87190
Thank you!retired
"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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ArcAngel9 Jack of All Trades
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psyche - why do you think i am scum with dwlee?
do you not believe my claim?Inatimeofancientgods,warlordsandkings,alandinturmoilcriedoutforahero.ShewasXena,amightyprincessforgedintheheatofbattle.Thepower,thepassion,thedanger.Hercouragewillchangetheworld-Xena Warrior Princess, Coming Soon!!-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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I merely think it's possible. Thing in your iso that most puts me off is the context of your "counterclaim" for NM. Given that it was always possible for there to be 3 mystics, I just don't get it. That plus the fact that you lied about being a VT in the first place.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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ArcAngel9 Jack of All Trades
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did you skip my response to why i lied about it?Inatimeofancientgods,warlordsandkings,alandinturmoilcriedoutforahero.ShewasXena,amightyprincessforgedintheheatofbattle.Thepower,thepassion,thedanger.Hercouragewillchangetheworld-Xena Warrior Princess, Coming Soon!!-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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