Micro 1018: The King's New Robes | Game Over

[Psyche]

my name's not in that votecount am i vfp?

UNVOTE:

[DkKoba]

my name's not in that votecount am i vfp?

UNVOTE:

Will be fixed in a moment - My mistake

[Psyche]

Can someone actually explain how we know we aren't in
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4

This seems technically totally possible? Scum seamstress using her ability under this setup seems to just confirm the other town mystic. And it's not really a strong enough ability to justify the trade-off.

[Psyche]

Uhhh.

We have 2 mystic claims.
But both can't be true.

this thread's full of people who have been playing this game for way too long to not understand the setup

[Pink Panthers]

If pink panther is town yes

Obvtowns we’re town, I’m never this clueless as scum.

[Pink Panthers]

If pink panther is town yes

Obvtowns we’re town, I’m never this clueless as scum.

P.edit Obviously (autocorrect sucks :/)

[Pink Panthers]

Hoppy thinks this is Arc’s town meta.

[Psyche]

Okay, so I do think PP is town because of some convincing obliviousness earlier in the game. T3 is town. I'm town. Everyone dead so far is almost definitely town. That leaves the two in ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan. I'm honestly pretty unsure which but I do lean town on Dwlee (gg if you and enchant have faked the performance yallve done itt tbh). And yeah as long as we lynch in those 3 (which we do have room to do before losing) then we win. Another way to put it is just that we win as long as one of the town in {me, ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan} avoids ever getting mislynched. Maybe that can be me, maybe it's safe to let that be Dwlee. I guess I do agree w the comment before that even after 4 mislynches our odds of winning remain pretty high.

Probably about to vote ArcAngel.

It doesn't feel totally right but there are good reasons for it (weird vt fakeclaim, non sequitor "counter claim", weird selfvote) and worst case scenario we get an info dump from the people she's targetted over the course of the game that conceivably identifies a Seamstress in the off chance that both she and dwlee are town.

But I guess that depends on which targets they've claimed?

ArcAngel has claimed...
ActionDan
Dwlee
Rockhopper
someone else

Enchant/Dwlee has claimed...
NotMafia
ActionDan
Rockhopper
someone else

why haven't you guys claimed your N3 targets?

[Psyche]

Just to be clear, Mafia with Seamstress has the option not to act in order to keep ambiguous whether there is 1 or 2 mystics. As long as there are only two Mystic claims and no one claims a Suit and no one flips Seamstress, setup is indistinguishable between first and second possibilities. Lynching Mystic claims until a non-Mystic flip (all Mystic flips are mechanically confirmed even if Actress doesn't act) OR lynching Seamstress is only way to clarify between setup 1 and 2 here.

[Psyche]

Another option I leave out above of course is the case where we lynch a Mystic and their flip exposes a Seamstress. Both mystics have claimed ActionDan as targets and ArcAngel has claimed Dwlee and each has selected one more unknown target last night. So odds are pretty good that we know after today whether there's a Seamstress among us?

[Psyche]

Sorry for multiposting. I just wanna conclude: there's a lot of value in lynching a Mystic claim today, whether it's ArcAngel or Dwlee.

Suppose we're in the second setup where there are 2 mystics and 1 seamstress. Lynching ArcAngel (for example) is then guaranteed to check Dwlee and ActionDan and a third person (almost definitely either me or PP) for that role. This gives town a ~2/3 chance of identifying the seamstress and getting us a free lynch tomorrow.

Suppose instead we're in the first setup and one of Dwlee and ArcAngel is scum. Lynching the town among them similarly triggers a check of various players for the seamstress role, building our confidence that we're in that setup (though not confirming - there's one player not covered by the check). We then have pretty good odds of finding scum by lynching the other mystic claim.

Again assuming we're in the first setup but first lynching the scum among them confirms the remaining mystic as town. We then have a pool of 3 people to identify the last scum in (me, actiondan, pp). Because the game has gone from 4v2 to 3v1, we get two opportunities to do that.

Maybe my math is off here but at any rate this does seem like where we are

[Dwlee99]

I targeted you last night because I mildly townread Dan yesterday when I replaced in.

[Dwlee99]

Agreed that it's probably better to kill a mystic claim in case we are in seamstress setup.

[ActionDan]

On paper all of that makes sense, but your odds change depending on the strength of your townreads/scumreads. For example, if you think PP is town, then Psyche should always be voting me as I should always be voting Psyche.

Do you think Dwlee is more town than PP Psyche?

[ActionDan]

Not that it matters, but an oracle reveals only the role/suit of the last person they choose, not all their targets over the course of the game.

[Psyche]

oh that matters a lot for my math and makes me sad

[Psyche]

im a hypocrite!

[Dwlee99]

Oh I didn't pick up that mistake in psyche's reasoning. I thought they were just saying to get the last person chosen would be good info.

[DkKoba]

Hey! Just a general reminder to not use the word "lynch" to refer to eliminations. No action will be taken for non malicious use of the term, but I will be sending warnings as per this rule update: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=87190
Thank you!

[Psyche]

yah sry

[ArcAngel9]

psyche - why do you think i am scum with dwlee?

do you not believe my claim?

[Psyche]

I merely think it's possible. Thing in your iso that most puts me off is the context of your "counterclaim" for NM. Given that it was always possible for there to be 3 mystics, I just don't get it. That plus the fact that you lied about being a VT in the first place.

[ArcAngel9]

did you skip my response to why i lied about it?

[Psyche]

no i just don't find it super credible

[Psyche]

VOTE: ArcAngel9

Ok, one day left. Am open to other ideas but have to be convinced.