Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

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It’s going to be hilarious if Dwlee is one scum and Ari was the other and Titus and I were both bickering because we couldn’t get our way

i cannot easily express how silly of a scumteam this idea is

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It’s going to be hilarious if Dwlee is one scum and Ari was the other and Titus and I were both bickering because we couldn’t get our way

i cannot easily express how silly of an idea this scumteam is

fixed

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If Ari town doctor dies HQ is conf town

or HQ could be scum who shot enchant.... not that i think that's the case.

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i do not care if dwlee doesn't rescind, they're clearly either an actual doctor who thinks ari is town and is doing this so their claim will be plausible later or they're trying to give ari cover. there's no good reason to care about it right now tbh.

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It narrows down the worlds so infinestimally small here.

the classical infinitesimally small number "two"

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i genuinely do not even slightly understand how ari has gotten any shade this game >_>

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i would like to multi-track drift my vote onto mathblade and enchant please.

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probably the number one thing that pings me is misplaced confidence
that's ari's play this game to a T

I don't disagree but don't see this as scum-indicative.

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hi i'm here.

does order matter or should i go

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PR.

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Nope.

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I do like where this could be going though.

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oh yeah my agreement with the misplaced confidence thing from aristeia was mostly bc of her calling me scum >.>

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I don't get why this game's been so miserable to read either when town clearly has a massive advantage with PRs and a Day 1 scum elim.

This bears worth repeating.

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I'm UB/Rolecop.

It's possible scum viewed shooting Ausuka/Aristeia as a 50/50 over whether Ausuka targeted Aristeia.

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remind me when/what did Bellaphant claim?

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For reference.

Bold means got that role (or claims to have), not-bold means claims to have picked that role and not gotten it.

Should be complete except for HQ's role, and Math whose pick I've forgotten and probably doesn't really matter since he's last in draft. I also don't remember if HEM ever claimed anything (it could potentially be relevant what they claimed if they did).

Notably only 7 claimed PRs.

Enchant	BP
Ausuka	JK
Harley Quinn	some PR
Bellaphant	tracker
Gamma Emerald	1-shot vig/PGO
implosion	UB/Rolecop
Wallflower	BP
Aristeia	Doctor
humaneatingmonkey	goon (could have picked anything)
Titus	n3 vig/Venge
Dwlee99	n3 vig
Roden	Voyeur
Save The Dragons	1-shot vig
MathBlade	vt

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you can't
always get
what you want

(but i also want that)

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it's sort of "more logical" for scum to shoot Ari than Ausuka, but in reality it's a wifom 50/50. This is how any doc/jk setup works if they're both town - scum are forced to 50/50 shooting the doc vs the jailkeeper, while the jailkeeper 50/50s jailkeeping the doc or someone else.

This is not to say I think wallflower is a bad lim, though. I need to think more on that but probably not a bad lim.

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Enchant	BP
Ausuka	JK
Harley Quinn	N3 Vig/Venge
Bellaphant	tracker
Gamma Emerald	1-shot vig/PGO
implosion	UB/Rolecop
Wallflower	BP
Aristeia	Doctor
humaneatingmonkey	goon (could have picked anything)
Titus	n3 vig/Venge
Dwlee99	n3 vig
Roden	Voyeur
Save The Dragons	1-shot vig
MathBlade	vt

So Titus, what's the inconsistency here? There would have been an inconsistency if HQ had claimed draft cop/1-shot watcher (the one unclaimed role) but this is 100% consistent, is it not? You just sounded like you'd be suspicious of anyone picking n3 vig/venge high up. Is that still the case given that HQ is the one who claimed it?

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whoops. didn't put math in.

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Also worth saying: given draft cop/watcher wasn't claimed, either scum got it, or scum got either it or some other role as a fakeclaim with their informed modifier.

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Yeah, that. At a glance it certainly "feels" like scum should probably shoot Ari but in practice it's WIFOM.

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Yeah, that. At a glance it certainly "feels" like scum should probably shoot Ari but in practice it's WIFOM.

Not really.

…yes really??

If airstrip (I’m keeping this autocorrect because it’s gold) is really the obvious nk target, then she is also the obvious jk target for ausuka, who could stop an nk by protecting her… which in turn means scum should shoot ausuka, which in turn means ausuka should jailkeep elsewhere. It’s WIFOM.

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I’ll have more substantive reads/analysis later tonight or tomorrow or something. I also want to hear from Titus again.

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On n1, she jk’d her top sr which was Math but scum are going to logically think, Ausuka is suddenly going to jk her top tr?

There is 0 reason to assume Ausuka would automatically behave the same n1 and n2. N1, no one had claimed. N2, multiple relevant power roles had claimed.

Besides, Harley, you may think this way, but there is no guarantee scum thinks about night actions the same way as you do. The fact that I think it's something scum could have considered, and Aristeia thinks Ausuka should sometimes JK her, means that it's entirely possible whoever scum is would think that way.

i doctored ausuka last night

i think ausuka should always have some probability to jk me so scum never have a clean shot there

Well what do you know @Wallflower and @Implosion, my theory was spot on and I bet scum thought so too.

I don't know why you're quoting this like it's a "i'm right and you're wrong" post. It doesn't contradict anything I've said. I never said Aristeia shouldn't doctor Ausuka. Aristeia definitely should have 100% doctored Ausuka last night. What I'm saying is that Ausuka should have had some probability of jailkeeping Aristeia, and as a result, it's possible that scum decided (incorrectly) to shoot Ausuka.

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Also worth saying: given draft cop/watcher wasn't claimed, either scum got it, or scum got either it or some other role as a fakeclaim with their informed modifier.

Or no one picked it

"no one picked it" is my second option; the point is that if no one picked it, then there is some role that no one picked, so scum will have gotten a fakeclaim. Meaning either they got draft cop/watcher as a fakeclaim and opted not to use it, or a PR claim is fakeclaiming. Both perfectly possible, but worth mentioning.

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HQ hasn't claimed between n3 vig and vengeful yet, correct? So we don't know she's a vig.

Doc heals either JK or Roden. #wifom

Nah, Roden's role is almost useless. Jailkeeper is by a wide margin the strongest role we have - Ari should protect Ausuka without wifoming, and Ausuka is the one who WIFOMs choices. Of course scum may not even want to shoot Ausuka given that I might be a UB.

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mmm if there's a fake claim it would have to be Voyeur or UB/Rolecop right? Am I reading this correctly?

If there is a scum taking advantage of their fakeclaim, it couldn't be HQ or Gamma, who I believe are both doubly confirmed. It could be Enchant if scum with Wallflower, but somewhat unlikely. It could be Ausuka if scum with Bellaphant, even more unlikely. Or it could be me, you or Roden, all of whom are the only one claiming their role pair.

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Because I don’t think we have scumteam who played against wncon and I find it extremely interesting that you’re trying as hard as you are seriously arguing that it’s more logical to flip a slot that is far more likely to be town than the slot that is extremely likely to be mech guiltied.

It wouldn't be playing against wincon, for the reasons I outlined.

"mech guiltied" and "likely to be mech guiltied" are very different.

And notice: I've said I'm not even against a Wallflower lim.

I'll drop it after this post because this seems fruitless.

Why wouldn’t scum want to acquire jk? That’s a powerful role for scum to have?

I made that post. From my perspective. I know I'm town. There is no scum UB.

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It's true that I should always consider jailing ari but I wouldn't call it 50/50? Like I'm not saying it's impossible scum took the risk but it does seem more likely it's just wallflower

There are valid reasons to not make it 50/50. But it is still a guessing game at some level. I guess I'm ultimately saying that if Wallflower flips town, there is another perfectly cromulent explanation; it's not like we have a guaranteed scum flip and we shouldn't treat it that way even if limming her is correct.

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Since I'm still very in the PoE, I'm just going to say I'm UB now, because I think the only way scum-me could possibly win here is to claim rolecop, and making it clear that I don't have that option is worth it. And scum are probably going to have to play assuming I am anyway.

(It's worth mentioning: this is part of why I really wanted to lim Enchant d1, because I assumed I'd be getting a valuable role, in the best case ascetic cop. D2 I felt some hesitation because I thought he was most likely telling the truth about being BP, scum or not, and me becoming BP is useless)

If Ausuka does die, and I become jailkeeper, scum will either shoot me or I'll be forced to confirm like half the player list and you can lim me then. If Aristeia dies, I will become a doctor and target Ausuka every night, Ausuka will never target me (so that if Ausuka dies it confirms me as scum), and again scum will be forced to either shoot me or have Ausuka confirm like half the player list. If scum shoot, like, Roden in order to waste my role, then they're delaying their ability to break up the ari-ausuka pair for even longer. The strength of all this is contingent on limming a second scum, of course.

But we can't lim Enchant today, we have to lim Wallflower (or another VT claim).

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if wall flower flips scum we can JK enchant and vig a VT and still be p much guranteed to win if enchant is last scum

it also gives us an extra doctor due to UB

I think taking the safer path is better

if the solve really is enchant/wallflower we win either way

@Ausuka, this is why I think jking Implosion and my vigging Enchant makes the most sense. Do you disagree with this?

I think Implosion’s posts have been pretty scummy and I really don’t see any good reason he shouldn’t be jk’d.

And to be clear, this is the reason I shouldn't be JK'd: if I am scum, and we lim scum today, I have just sealed my own fate as a mechanical loss.

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um im always healing Ausuka

and when i get shot implo is always healing Ausuka

Yeah, this.

And I'm fine with Ausuka never-jailing Ari at this point as well.

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Jailing enchant if this is scum

If wallflower flips town I feel like I should keep my target private?

If hq says she's vigging a VT claim I won't jail them

This seems like a good plan.

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If WF and both you are scum and you are jk’d then how would we lose? I actually don’t hate those last few posts.

If WF and I are both scum, scum will lose no matter what (because my being alive guarantees Ausuka will never die), so there's no need to jailkeep me.

If WF is scum and I am town, then it's better to jailkeep someone else.

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whoever you suspect the most?

as long as you tell ausuka so theres no chance she jails the same one

I think she should jk Enchant, no?

I’m asking for suggestions.

Basically, if WF flips town, then it's advantageous for scum not to know who Ausuka is JKing. She should maybe JK enchant, but if she publicly commits to doing so, then Enchant would just have their scumbuddy make the kill. She has said she's JKinig Enchant if WF flips scum (which is fine bc then only one scum is alive so they have no choice).

Any of the VT claims is fine for you to shoot, so long as Ausuka knows who. It doesn't help scum to know who you're shooting, but it does help them to know who Ausuka is jailkeeping, which is why we're coordinating it ini this way.

For reference VT claims (other than WF) are StD, Dwlee, Titus, or Bellaphant. I'd personally not shoot Titus.

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I'm ready to end the day when y'all are.

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VOTE: Wallflower

E-1.

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Did she still want to do something?

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Yeah if we don't flip a scum today I think we just flip enchant tomorrow before elo

We are like. Nowhere even close to ELO. It's 10:2 right now. Then 8:2, 6:2, 4:2. We have

four mislims

. Not to mention the multiple living protective PRs, the venge claim that might as well be mechanically clear since we can lim her at ELO, etc, etc.

Why are we trying to get the perfect lim today. We're so far ahead; if we play mechanically optimally there's really not that much we need to think about. I have been yelling about WF not being confscum but like, the JK on her is still a form of probabilistic evidence that has meaning beyond just a read. And she can't live to endgame.

Can we please not lim Enchant. It's like, the one way for us to lose, is if Enchant is town and I lose my ability to confirm myself. We lim Enchant the second any other PR dies (or alternatively, scum help us sort the VT claims or they just... never get to kill anyone). I understand Ari doesn't want to put things on autopilot but like... I think that is the thing to do at least for today. I'm not gonna complain about limming a different VT but I do think WF is the best choice. I'm honestly kind of disinterested by scumhunting in this game right now, like yeah there's a good chance it'll be important but there's also a good chance it just won't be >_>

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I'm just irritated that now, the first time i have been Ready to move on to the next day, we collectively no longer are X_X

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i think we should refocus our goal and aim to be the highest day-count open in MS history because that is essentially optimal play

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Oh I'm not saying post count, I'm saying day count, as in if we lim the VTs one by one >____>

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What would the endgame of that even look like. Imagine every VT claim spontaneously combusted and flipped VT.

That's STD, Titus, Bella, Dwlee.

We'd be left with me, HQ, ari, roden, Ausuka, Enchant, Gamma. I have a hard time imagining what the game even looks like from there.

Worth mentioning that Roden's role is actually somewhat relevant with 1 scum left - if Roden targets the same person as Ausuka, and there is a kill, and Roden sees Ausuka jailing, then Ausuka becomes conftown. Similarly Ari. I mean if Enchant isn't scum then there's a good chance whoever scum is at this point is just deciding to play the game nightlessly so this might not even be relevant.

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my problem is just that there is a universe where i wind up getting mislimmed because we don't do the boring plan, and you have no idea how existentially frustrating that universe would be to me

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i wish there was a mechanism where we could universal consent-decree all the VTs to perish. not that that'd be fair to scum but etc

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yeah that

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I guess if we limmed Gamma we could turn Implosion into a 1 shot Vig which might potentially be able to clear Implosion if he gets to shoot on a night when the mafia also get a shot through.

nightless is kind of annoying huh

yeah i had this line of thought

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there's something truly depraved about still being a UB on day four in a setup where half the player list has a power role.

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VOTE: Save The Dragons

I don't think it really matters who Ausuka JKs right now so long as it's one of the VTs or Enchant, if scum are NKing it won't matter and if they shoot then all that's important is we get some new clear.

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if you wanna kill me you can kill me if it's easier i think this game is pretty much won for town

Do you think scum!STD makes this post?

He had no votes on him at the time?

i think he might and i literally don't care about reading people based on things like this right now; i just care about chain-limming all the VT claims because it's optimal to do so.

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being this fixated on something that is clearly likely not happening

std was at e-1 though?? wdym "clearly likely not happening"

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STD had no votes on him when he offered to be the lim.

And yet, as soon as I voted him, four people followed

I don't disagree that Enchant is the most likely person (or at the very least, among the most likely) to be scum here. I just would like to delay eliminating them so that we can eliminate some VTs who are among the next most likely while scum still have the bonus incentive not to kill of me being uninherited, in case Enchant is actually town, because I'm ostensibly 100% confident we're going to win the game

eventually

if Enchant is scum.

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The point is that limming Enchant immediately removes scum's disincentive to shoot Ari (that disincentive being that I'll become doc). So they will just shoot Ari. It's entirely possible scum is someone who's flying under the radar right now, in which case, even if we think I ultimately won't be able to use my UB, it's best to keep doing other lims that force scum to keep not killing for now so we can earn even more free mislims.

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Gosh that draft is a yikes.

gg.