Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame
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I believe others made it clear already, but 45 leaves a bit of an unpleasant taste. It's latching to Aureal's question in a sly fashion. And weakly reframing the question as an accusation
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Just to be clear, it's not the vote per se that I find distasteful, it's the fact that the way the vote germinates from Aurel's #30 seems artificial; it's grapping at a ledge that just happened to be found there.In post 68, Oclaxian Empire wrote: grim: like sure, ig the vote is bad? but even then its like, a stretch of what would be considered bad in rvs/very start of actual game? i still dont rlly see why it’d warrant a serious vote. kori also is failing to see it, so im wondering if im just stupid or theres rlly nothing of note there
@Kokichi, this time it's me that is not seeing it. What's the fuss about this?In post 88, Kokichi Oma wrote:
Oh no.. You finally flipped scum didn't youIn post 79, Black wrote: Out of RVS on page 3. I love it
I don't have an issue with Dragon's 45 nor do I have an issue with the wagon that formed off of it
My only issue atm is HPE's 54 where he says he's on board to vote Dragon but doesn't want to turn it into a wagon?
VOTE: Black-
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Yeah, and I kind of feel you should know that it wouldn't be the wisest thing for scum!me to go after Dragon specifically in a game with you lolIn post 124, Doctor Drew wrote:
At the risk of agreeing with you.....I uh, kinda agree.In post 114, osuka wrote: i just skimmed this game before work and it makes negative sense
ill read everything more attentively later but i doubt itll make any more sense
I fear Ice is being used as mis-elim bait, they do have a style that gets them in hot water, and you kinda get that after playing a few games with them.
I kind of feel Bianco would and should know that.-
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I think you're drawing connections that aren't necessarily there. You're kind of implying that people are wagoning PythonIn post 138, Aureal wrote: Okay, so... People want to wagon Dragon for his vote, but people also want to wagon the people who want to wagon Dragon, but people also want to wagon the people who want to wagon the people who want to wagon Dragon? Am I clear on where we stand?
@_@
In that case I guess my vote can stay where it is cuz clearly that's going to be the next cool little wagon.
Meanwhile, Mala didn't even answer the question that started all this nonsense.becausethey're wagoning Dragon, which it's possibly true for Oclaxian but I'd say not for Bulge; and you're even implying that furtive is voting the Bulgebecausethey're wagoning a wagoner of Dragon, which... strains the imagination, and would make little sense since the middle ring of the chain is missing anyway-
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People should really stop indicating which votes are "for pressure". Then they become instantly useless.In post 218, Doctor Drew wrote:
Pressure is always necessary, especially this early in a game, not sure why you don't see that.
Do you normally take forever to vote as Black hinted at?
And honestly thought my 8 Mile joke would get a bit more of a reaction here.....this makes me sad.
And Oclax, make it easy to read me and join this wagon!
What is the point of asking HPE that? Are you seriously attempting to say that itdidn'ttake forever to vote this time around, and then sussing it for its voting?
Look, throwing a vote in the hat only after refusing to do twice toward two different suggested wagons is taking forever to vote in my book
If we want to play the slip game this is lame. But I don't have to tell it to you, you don't believe it's a slip either, or you'd've voted it.In post 208, Doctor Drew wrote:
I mean, you worded that in a very interesting way.In post 207, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
That's a REALLY interesting way to read that post.In post 206, Doctor Drew wrote:
Did you just admit you are scum?In post 204, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
You mean like how this one acquiesced in theIn post 203, Doctor Drew wrote: Also, scum is more likely to acquiesce compared to town.opposite directionwhilst Black was asking it to vote with her and you on bianco?-
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In post 220, Oclaxian Empire wrote:
ive been sitting on this post for a while trying to think about it and thought about it while showering, but i still think it comes from town more often than not. i'm basing this off town of salem coven which while i know is not the most accurate thing to base forum mafia plays off of, i do think its generally a good thing to look at since some mechanics do come into play here.In post 140, Black wrote:
I think I agree with this. Everyone is trying to lim scum D1, even scumIn post 139, Doctor Drew wrote: But in multiball like this, and if you are scum there is always a chance that the lim-bait is scum. Personally I wouldn't overthink things on D1 and just try to find the easiest path and just hope for the best.
mainly, i think today is the only day scum killing scum is bad, and i think tomorrow its still maybe bad to do so?Spoiler: three paragraphs collapsed
tl;dr - scum are not going to want to kill scum today, but will act like they're actively trying to find scum. any other day? fuck if i know. its probably advantageous to scumhunt for all sides starting tmrw.
Imo there is virtually no chance that Oclaxian, regardless of alignment, is pushing Python and not actually think they're scum. Not after admitting themselves that fabricating a sr on a townie D1 is a thing they think scum would want to do.In post 228, usesPython wrote: You voted us before Dragons main being public was known, do you think that mainhunting a secret alt is scummy or townie?
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I can't imagine scum!Oclaxian taking the time to lay it out that scum would want to go for townies if they were intent of going for townies.In post 235, usesPython wrote:
I don't follow. If Oclaxian thinks scum would want to fabricate a sr on a townie d1 then why would they genuinely be pushing me as scum if they're scum?In post 234, biancospino wrote: Imo there is virtually no chance that Oclaxian, regardless of alignment, is pushing Python and not actually think they're scum. Not after admitting themselves that fabricating a sr on a townie D1 is a thing they think scum would want to do.
-Nameless
However scum!Oclaxian would have, on the other hand, a reason to say that if they were going for a genuine sr; it would help them buy townie points if you flip scum, which they would believe it would be the case-
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That's not true, in fact you've proven it yourself:In post 244, usesPython wrote: Deliberately lying about mech feels pretty alien to me because all it takes is one person checking your work and correcting you to force you to change your position. In this case the extra towncred gained would still be 0 in their eyes after my mechposting
-Nameless
you're saying it yourself that you don't think scum!Oclaxian would push a genuine sr. So if theyIn post 235, usesPython wrote:
I don't follow. If Oclaxian thinks scum would want to fabricate a sr on a townie d1 then why would they genuinely be pushing me as scum if they're scum?In post 234, biancospino wrote: Imo there is virtually no chance that Oclaxian, regardless of alignment, is pushing Python and not actually think they're scum. Not after admitting themselves that fabricating a sr on a townie D1 is a thing they think scum would want to do.
-Namelessare, it would be reasonable to consider that towny.-
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fwiw, just to verify I did run a bunch of simulations and I have too come to the conclusion that scum would rather lim scum today. If we lim town today, EV for each scumteam goes to around 37%; if we lim scum, EV for theIn post 247, The Bulge wrote:
disagree, there's a lot more town than scum and if one scumteam is picked off early then it leaves all the rest of the townies for the remaining scumteam to deal with. fewer nks means more lims for scum to dodge.In post 137, usesPython wrote:Spoiler: Quotes too deep
Yeah but like Drew is saying Bianco is scum for going after what Drew considers limbait, my point is that I think scum have thebiggestincentive to properly scumhunt since it prevents a lim from their own team while also getting rid of a threat and gives them +town.
-Aotherscumteam goes to around 46%
(thou don't take the exact numbers as gospel, it's quite possible that I've screwed something up)-
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In post 63, Kokichi Oma wrote:
I agree that 45 is bad, but I don't think it's enough for me to vote them yetIn post 61, biancospino wrote:I believe others made it clear already, but 45 leaves a bit of an unpleasant taste. It's latching to Aureal's question in a sly fashion. And weakly reframing the question as an accusation
See, if you did find 45 bad, but not enough to vote, and you did vote in response to 79, then you must have found 79 even worse right? So you should be able to point to what's wrong with it, and the answer should not be gut.In post 88, Kokichi Oma wrote:
Oh no.. You finally flipped scum didn't youIn post 79, Black wrote: Out of RVS on page 3. I love it
I don't have an issue with Dragon's 45 nor do I have an issue with the wagon that formed off of it
My only issue atm is HPE's 54 where he says he's on board to vote Dragon but doesn't want to turn it into a wagon?
VOTE: Black
I've already asked this to you way back then btw-
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In post 162, Black wrote: I don't really think python "main hunting" is AI though
Python's mainhunting was explicitly used to provide meta to base their Dragon vote on. If using meta as the foundation of a vote is not town behaviour, then you should think it's AI, isn't it?In post 326, Black wrote: Convenient of you to ignore my first point. Using meta as the foundation of your vote is not town behavior
VOTE: Black-
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Can weIn post 485, usesPython wrote: Like there's a theoretical way to guarantee scum can nightkill doctor but it shouldn't be in play this game so the chances of nightkilling the doctor shouldn't be greater than 50%
-Apleasenot do the scum's homework for them? Outing the doc is straight up +EV for scum under optimal play, even if they can't agree on a strategy and have =rand accuracy. Optimal play isn't obvious, let's not do the math on this please-
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Yes. I'm a bit concerned he hasn't claimed Cult yet /s.In post 531, Black wrote:
Can anyone that has played with Drew confirm this?In post 529, Doctor Drew wrote: Pre Edit: Open wolfing is my play style lol
I'm certain Drew actually posted in a very specific way to make sure to pingmespecifically; I won't elaborate further on why. Drew wanted to talk specifically tometo evaluate my reaction more than to the town at large. Take of that what you will, but I don't think it's a specific play that could result from discussing with a partner; I believe it's town.-
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Yes, but starting Night with a known doc has a higher EV for both scumteam. I did the math.
Also, depending on when it happens, they have a strategy to make a nokill on doc just never happening, guaranteed. Let's not discuss it until postgame, shall we.-
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This case makes no sense unless Bulge is scum. Unless I'm missing something, this should be reason to lim The Bulge before Drew instead of the other way aroundIn post 586, usesPython wrote:
Can we swap the Bulge/Drew scumteam wagon from Bulge to Drew? This is not townie behaviour:In post 554, Doctor Drew wrote: Post Edit: Have decided my role based off another player not really commenting on my slot.
Hey python, I interacted with Furt now, so they can't be my scum buddy right?
- Drew tr's Bulge in 534
- Drew/Bulge solve gets pushed with a Bulge wagon
- Drew starts defending himself
VOTE: Drew
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I disagree. For, if the Bulge is town, you're basically saying that scum!Drew is either actually tr'ing him but still putting up a guard in case he happens to be otherscum -- which Drew would think won't happen, because tr--; or is pretending to tr him, which would make very little sense as we've extensively established that scum wants to lim otherscum.
If you want to kill Drew on that basis, I think that just doesn't work unless he's partnered-
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Idk, If I was scum and tr'd the Bulge, personally I'd take the risk of them being otherscum instead of doing this pantomime. Since the pantomime doesn't look that good in every case, and I'd be decently confident that the bad scenario I'm guarding against wouldn't happen anyway-
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Bulge? Nowhere in that nested quote is there a post by Bulge, why are you talking to them there?In post 583, Aureal wrote:In post 540, usesPython wrote:
Furtive and Aureal are barely playing with how little they've posted, Kokichi was the one pushing the Black wagon so kinda understandable to give them a pass, and yeah it's also weird you haven't mentioned us considering half the thread has just been us getting into arguments with peopleIn post 537, Doctor Drew wrote:
I also haven't mentioned you until now, or Furtive, or Koki, and barely Aureal. In fact, most of my game here has been Bianco and HPE, with a bit of Black and osuka in there as well. Are they all my scum buddies? Are you?In post 535, usesPython wrote:
If this is the case then Drew not mentioning Bulge and Bulge not mentioning Drew until now looks really badIn post 529, Doctor Drew wrote: Pre Edit: Open wolfing is my play style lol
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I only talked about Bulge because you(or someone here today) asked me about them. There wasn't much for me to say that wasn't already said, and I repeated. The mech speak post they made was an 'oh ya there was one thing now that you reminded me' sort of thing.
You are attaching me to the Bulge for them not really discussing me, and puts me in a spot where they is no way to defend against that.
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Okay seriously, WTF. Bulge I'm not familiar with but I expect more checking of your facts fromyou. I had over three times as many posts as furtive had (and still more now since I'm doing a long day's work worth of catch-up now) and it's clear our ISOs aren't even close to comparable. He hadn't managed more than three sentences in a post! I'm wrecking his sentence record with just this modest post!-
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Oh. I'm just stupid, I've mistead Aureal as tho she was sayingBulge I'm not familiar with you but...
And I've even read that multiple times so idk, I must still be asleep or something-
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Ok, I'm going to put my foot down here. I donotwant a Drew lim today.
I may be amenable to a Bulge lim instead.-
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Town EV if we mislim today is ~24%. It's winnable.
Winning through nighplay is not a thing that makes sense thou? It's the scum that may lose through nightplay more than anything. Unless you hope in the doc, then good luckIn post 653, usesPython wrote: If you take a look at the town wins the ones that didn't have a scum lim d1 tended to happen because there were multiple no-kills/crosskills, and with this threads allergic reaction to mech I don't consider winning through nightplay to be a viable strategy
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In fact, if you're fixated that the playerlist here don't understand mech, you should be relieved if anything, since that's extra chance that the scum mess upIn post 655, usesPython wrote:
What part of "If we don't lim scum d1 we lose without extremely strong nightplay that wont happen with this playerlist" do you not get?In post 654, Black wrote: In fact I don't think your perception of this setup and your reactions to the gambits match up. You claim town has to be very careful to win but in the same breath you are proposing we lim two townies D1/D2 if you are wrong about Drew
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wtf. That's straight out a lie. 2/2/6 with no doc has ~39% EV for each scum; 2/1/7 even with the doc has 48% (for the 2)In post 661, usesPython wrote:
The only thing scum have to do to win is to not shoot scum, most people I've met tend to shoot obvtown as scumIn post 660, biancospino wrote:
In fact, if you're fixated that the playerlist here don't understand mech, you should be relieved if anything, since that's extra chance that the scum mess upIn post 655, usesPython wrote:
What part of "If we don't lim scum d1 we lose without extremely strong nightplay that wont happen with this playerlist" do you not get?In post 654, Black wrote: In fact I don't think your perception of this setup and your reactions to the gambits match up. You claim town has to be very careful to win but in the same breath you are proposing we lim two townies D1/D2 if you are wrong about Drew
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Yeah, that was pretty funny. Even all but claimed DayCop and everythingIn post 669, Enchant wrote:Last person i remember who said "IF IT'S INCORRECT KILL ME NEXT" just replaced out instantly after elim go and WAS wrong.
I laughed too hard on this.-
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Ok, but scum don't want to make town lose, they want to win, don't they?-
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Random lims, except that the doc is never limmed.
Also I'm not really doing an exact calculation, I'm just simulating ~100k games and seeing the win proportions-
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There is a specific reason why I don't want you to get back on me on that specific point for now. I'm sure you already see it yourself.In post 678, usesPython wrote:
Intuitively random lims and actions should decrease the chances of the same target = no nightkill rule applying (Since it means scum might be shooting people that are scummier than they are), I'll try to finish coding a simulation running on the charisma model and get back to you by the end of the dayIn post 677, biancospino wrote: Random lims, except that the doc is never limmed.
Also I'm not really doing an exact calculation, I'm just simulating ~100k games and seeing the win proportions
-Nameless-
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if you insist.
EV with the constraints mislim D1 and ice lim D1 are
FIRE =~ 50%
ICE =~ 18%
TOWN =~ 30%
DRAW =~ 2%
assuming random lims and actions-
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Just to be clear, the 30% figure is a weighted average across all the ways N1 could go. There are specific scenarios where the figure is significantly worse.In post 713, Black wrote: What I'm saying is...if you're town and we mislim you D1, and then lim let's say Drew D2 and he's scum...that still leaves town with a 30% chance of winning. So why did you say earlier that town essentially loses with a D1 mislim?-
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Anyway, I'd like to stop talking mech now. There is a specific thing I think will happen this night if Python is scum, and almost only if unless the RNGod frowns on us. That's the last I'll say on the topic.
I also want to repeat myself that Drew isn't happening today, not with my vote. I have a very strong gutread there that scum!Drew and town!Bulge is not a thing.-
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I know I've said I would stop talking mech, but this is just kind of egregious. Like you know full well that X/2 has a worse EV than X/1/1, you don't even have to run the number yourself, you can just check the EV project on the wiki (and in fact X/1/1 in this game is even more advantageous to town than montaneous since scum may waste their kill). Why the need to lie?In post 734, usesPython wrote: Also we need to be limming the same groupscum today and tomorrow, can the people doing individual scumhunting start looking into what partners make sense with their scumreads and focus on solving for pairs?
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This was a game with furtive as scum (well, ghoul)In post 750, HighPrincessErinys wrote: Is it in his scumrange? Not really sure, never seen it.
viewtopic.php?sid=&f=51&t=90328&user_select%5B%5D=36433
It's clearly not very reminescent at all of this game's furtive-
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You don't care because you sr both or because you just want a lim and are willing to wagon whomever?In post 790, Enchant wrote:
I really don't care kIn post 779, usesPython wrote: Enchant you too, are you willing to get on a Bulge wagon instead of a Drew wagon?
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In post 796, Black wrote:
It's more like you're not making your point clear enough. What about me talking about you did you not like?In post 789, furtiveglance wrote:
Missing the pointIn post 787, HighPrincessErinys wrote: Pretty sure also that Black was defending you, furtive...
This is pretty clear? It's basically the same thing Python has against Drew, scum!you is putting a guard just in case we end up flipping furtive and is otherscumIn post 772, furtiveglance wrote:
Scum don't know how to treat their non-buddies in multiball...lolIn post 766, Black wrote: And yeah I realize this gives me fishy associatives with furtive if he is scum here but I feel like this information can be useful in determining his alignment
Black's worried I'm the other scumteam-
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Idk, in the first Newbie I played our SE (who was our Cop iirc) basically had the same mindsetIn post 802, Black wrote:
That's not a very town mindset. Does Mafia bore you or something?In post 798, Enchant wrote:
SecondIn post 795, biancospino wrote:
You don't care because you sr both or because you just want a lim and are willing to wagon whomever?In post 790, Enchant wrote:
I really don't care kIn post 779, usesPython wrote: Enchant you too, are you willing to get on a Bulge wagon instead of a Drew wagon?
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In post 875, Black wrote:
You said your gut is right 50% of the time but the way you are approaching this seems like you're 100% sure I'm scumIn post 874, Kokichi Oma wrote: I have nothing against you. You're just scum this game
It's definitely personal at this point
Can we please not? There is postgame for this. This is franly overstepping the game in a way that shuts discussion down and makes even talking about the you/Koki thing feel undetached and unconfortableIn post 882, Black wrote:
See you in the postgame then. I'm done talking to you and I will be actively avoiding games with you in it from now onIn post 877, Kokichi Oma wrote: I would feel bad if you're town, but I don't think you're town.-
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What lolIn post 933, Oclaxian Empire wrote: drew, i need to review kori's notes on, bc i remember kori said they think drew is town, and that makes them think drew actually rolled scum.-
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Not... really? If anything I'd expect Drew to defend Bulge more agressively if it was a framing attempt actually.In post 936, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
Yeah honestly wouldn't you WANT to defend your scumpartner in this hypothetical Drew/Bulge scumteam?In post 934, Oclaxian Empire wrote: grim: i do agree tho, looking at them more closely, drew seems to not be focused on defending his tr, but i don't think that specifically makes him and bulge aligned w/ one another-
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As I've stated somewhere, I do not believe that it's any likely for Drew to be scum and Bulge not samescum.In post 940, Oclaxian Empire wrote: Drel: So what do you make of it then Bianco? I haven't looked at your ISO, nor the game in general, but what do you make of it? Do you think Drew/Bulge are aligned with one another?
If Bulge is scum, yes, I rekon the assoc looks bad. Otherwise not, and that's a good chunk of the reason I'm so opposed to a Drew wagon-
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For all that Python reached basically the other conclusion that I hold, they do have a good point about this. It was Bulge in the hot fire by when you made this post; you really didn't need to defendIn post 537, Doctor Drew wrote:
I also haven't mentioned you until now, or Furtive, or Koki, and barely Aureal. In fact, most of my game here has been Bianco and HPE, with a bit of Black and osuka in there as well. Are they all my scum buddies? Are you?In post 535, usesPython wrote:
If this is the case then Drew not mentioning Bulge and Bulge not mentioning Drew until now looks really badIn post 529, Doctor Drew wrote: Pre Edit: Open wolfing is my play style lol
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I only talked about Bulge because you(or someone here today) asked me about them. There wasn't much for me to say that wasn't already said, and I repeated. The mech speak post they made was an 'oh ya there was one thing now that you reminded me' sort of thing.
You are attaching me to the Bulge for them not really discussing me, andputs me in a spot where they is no way to defend against that.yourselfthere; 'cause defending your tr on Bulge would suffice. You kind of intruded yourself deeper by taking it as something to actively combat about.
Now, the assoc that Python sawbeforethis... eeh, not really too solid if you ask me.-
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In my mind if Bulge is green you're all but cleared yes. There is also another reason to this but I don't know how to express it other than gut.-
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No, they aren't? Are there really 2+ people willing to vote Drew but not Bulge?In post 1007, usesPython wrote: Bianco we know about your opinion on that but the wagons today are Drew/Python so you get to decide if a Drew/Bulge or Python/??? solve is more likely
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You're just essentially blackmailing me now. If and when it gets to literally biting the deadline unless I decide to get on one of those wagons, I'll throw my stone-
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That's still blackmail. You made it aboundantly clear that you're willing to go along with the gambit and remove yourself from the pool if today's lim flips town. You're asking me to decide to gamble that a lim that I consider worse than random is actually scum and condemn you if I get unlucky, or condemn you tout court. And under those circumstances I may be tempted to do the second and keep my hero tr alive-
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See, @Python, if you do any of those things to make a buddy, you need your new buddy to remain alive or you've wasted your time. To which Drew didn't put any effort at all.
And if you do want to pretend to push on the associative, you have to aknowledge that the associative exist in the first place. I really do not see how you think a scum!bulge flip would help drew any here.
In fact what Drew has done a lot more of is sr'ingme. I know why he does it and I know he believes it. You'll have to take my word for it that the manner of it is something that would deeply surprise me if it came from scum-
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In post 974, osuka wrote: 2. i will lose fewer brain cells every time i read the thread because i can't take any more of the mech talk, please make it stop it's too many numbers my brain can't take this i'm losing my mind. i swear to fuck if i have to read some shit about expected values again i will fucking combust-
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Why you asking, you too wanna hammer before he comes back?
After 1098 it does sound like it could be entertaining-
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Ngl this game's getting a bit tiring, feels like walking in circles. Can we just kill someone already? I'm fine with Mala, Bulge or even Black-
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biancospino he/shecompulsive complex Inventorhe/she
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Tbh it's just that we tried the Bulge wagon and didn't work, there were multiple occasions to put mala in enchant-range yesterday and didn't happen. So idk, maybe we just try something else and it'll go throughIn post 1145, Black wrote: I don't think town!Bianco chooses the wagon with the weakest case attached to it here
Last I checked people wanted me dead for a meta read that has still not been explained?
Can we not wagon me over something this stupid?-
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Yeah sure I woke up bloodthirsty today. And it's not like I've never triedIn post 1152, Black wrote: So you're admitting you're giving up on more solid wagons just because you haven't been able to push them through? That doesn't seem truthful, especially considering we've had lots of chances to have Enchant lolhammer but the thread has been actively avoiding putting the game in that state
In post 1109, Doctor Drew wrote:
Ha, to get the wrath of osuka? Yes pleaseIn post 1108, biancospino wrote: Why you asking, you too wanna hammer before he comes back?
After 1098 it does sound like it could be entertaining-
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Thanks, all clear now
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come to the darkside with perlIn post 1174, Enchant wrote: I don't like python, strange coding language.
If it'll make you fell better, unless it's literally you or Drew by deadline I'm not hammering youIn post 1175, usesPython wrote:
Thank you for waiting until our V/LA started to seriously start campaigning for our wagon, we really appreciate not having the chance to defend ourselvesIn post 1172, Black wrote:
Python wagon is still looking juicyIn post 1169, The Bulge wrote: i made a couple necessary adjustments to my reading/catchup style this game so i probably wont disappear again but i sure would love to have a flip!-
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I get that is kind of offensive but sadly I think it's more likely to come from town; I'd imagine scum would need to read stuff more accurately just out of survivalism, since they almost have to be aware of what they can nitpick to seem like they're fakesolving.In post 1265, Oclaxian Empire wrote: i still think python should die today but there is something deeply primal abt someone admitting they’re not reading a players fucking posts that makes me want to policy them
But yeah, fuck that. Admitting to just not be reading the game is almost insulting to every other player; I don't like the concept of policy but here's wathever
VOTE: Koki-
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